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Citizens Climate Lobby Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference March, 15, 2014. Lancaster, PA

OBSERVED AND MODELED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (MID-ATLANTIC STATES)

CLIMATE CHANGE

Konstantin Y. Vinnikov (University of Maryland)

MY RELATED CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSES USING SURFACE, SATELLITE, & ASTRONOMICAL

OBSERVATIONS

• Global Warming (1976)• Arctic Sea Ice Extent is decreasing (1999)• Climate Variability is not increasing (2002)• Global Tropospheric Air is warming (2003)• Sea level rise – Accelerated Antarctic melting (2004)

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MID-ATLANTIC STATES: OBSERVED CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE & PRECIPITATION

KNOWN GLOBAL WARMING SIGNATURE (FOOTPRINT) IN CLIMATIC RECORDS:

. Warming trend YES

. Polar amplification YES

. Winter (Cold Season) amplification YES

. Diurnal asymmetry NO

. Increase of precipitation YES

. Summer desiccation ?

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OBSERVED WARMING TREND 1895-2013 Trend = 0.76oC/100 yr

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Compare to:Northern Hemisphere Warming 1895-2013 Trend=0.76oC/100 yr

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East Coast States:

Observed Seasonal Variation of Mean Air Temperature Trends

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• A century-scale warming trend can be clearly seen in observations of Tmax & Tmin at 5 of 9 chosen meteorological stations in Maryland.

• An expected asymmetry of Trend(Tmin)>Trend(Tmax) is found in observations of 3 of 9 chosen stations. Five other stations display the opposite Trend(Tmin)<Trend(Tmax).

• Century-scale decreasing trends in variance of Tmax are found in observations at 8 of 9 chosen meteorological stations.

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East Coast States:Observed Seasonal Variation of Mean Precipitation and Trend

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East Coast Rivers:Observed Seasonal

Variations of Runoff TrendsR. Delaware at Trenton, NJ, 1912-2010

R. Potomac at Point of Rocks, MD, 1895-2010R. James at Cartersville, VA, 1899-2010R. Roanoke at Roanoke Rapids, NC, 1912-2010R. Wateree at Camden, SC, 1929-2010R. Savannah at Augusta, GA, 1883-2010R. Altamaha at Doctortown, GA, 1931-2010

R. Delaware at Trenton, NJ, 1912-2010R. Potomac at Point of Rocks, MD, 1895-2010R. James at Cartersville, VA, 1899-2010R. Roanoke at Roanoke Rapids, NC, 1912-2010R. Wateree at Camden, SC, 1929-2010R. Savannah at Augusta, GA, 1883-2010R. Altamaha at Doctortown, GA, 1931-2010

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Annual Cycle of Precipitation in MD and VA has MAX in the Summer and MIN in the Autumn.

This makes our climate so nice.

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The most important observed century scale climatic trends in Maryland and Virginia

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Observed Increases in Very Heavy Summer Precipitation during the 1958 to 2011 period

(archive of USGCRP 2009 updated)

Summer Percent increases in the amount falling in very heavy rain events defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2011 in the summer season for each region

Changes over the northcentral and northeastern parts of the nation are statistically significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 levels respectively; all other trends are insignificant

Groisman et al., 2013

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MODELED GLOBAL WARMINGTEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION

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IPCC AR5. RCP-Representative Concentration Pathways. (Wikipedia, March 2014)

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NJ PA

DE MD WV

WV VA

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NJPA

DEMDWV

WVVA

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Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones &

SEA LEVEL RISE

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1957-2006Trend=44.7 cm/100 yr

1957-2006Trend=34.4 cm/100 yr

1957-2006Trend=29.0 cm/100 yr

OBSERVED SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS NEAR MID-ATLANTIC STATES OF THE USA(2009 Technical report NOS CO-OPS 053)

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Report: Global Climate Change Impact in the United States. 2009, US GCRP

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IPCC WG1 REPORT 2013 PROJECTIONS

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AR5. IPCC WG1 REPORT 2013. Sea Level Change: Paleo, Observed and Model Predicted Estimates.

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Greenhouse Global Warming. Observed data for

CARBON DIOXIDE and METHANE

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1995-2012 TREND

19.46 ppm/10yr

19.31 ppm/10yr

19.68 ppm/10yr

19.57 ppm/10yr

19.07 ppm/10yr

19.12 ppm/10yr

18.78 ppm/10yr

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THESE USA CO2 HOURLY RECORDS ARE OBTAINED FROM EPA AQS DATA ARCHIVE

Trend=14.1 ppm/10 yr

Trend=11.9 ppm/10 yr

Trend=10.3 ppm/10 yr

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MEAN TREND1995-2012

14.06 ppm/10yr

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GLOBAL MONITORING OF CH4 BY NOAA: HOURLY RECORDS

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THESE ARE THE FIVE LONGEST HOURLY METHANE RECORDS IN EPA DATA ARCHIVE. ONLY THREE OF THEM ARE VALID. ALL OTHER RECORDS ARE TOO SHORT.

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Observed century-scale climatic variations in the Mid-Atlantic States of the USA correspond well to the scenario of greenhouse anthropogenic global warming based on climate change modeling studies. We should expect that many further model predicted changes in our regional climatic conditions are inevitable. Unlimited global warming is going to make our climates very uncomfortable. In any case, regional climatic studies are often underfunded or not funded at all. Monitoring of the main greenhouse gases, Carbon Dioxide and Methane, in the Mid Atlantic States is not sufficient or nonexistent. Due to the absence of funds, the most talented students are moving towards remote sensing or other well funded research paths. The Climate Change problem needs your attention.

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THANK YOU!

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100 yr Averages (ºC) & Trends (ºC)/100 yr

Mean Variances (ºC)2 & Trends (ºC)2/100 yr What we are looking for:

1. Asymmetry in trends of Tmax & Tmin. We expect that: Trend(Tmin)>Trend(Tmax).

2. Trends in Variances.

What we see here:1. An Asymmetry does depend on

station.

2. All these three stations display a century scale decreasing trend in variances of Tmax. Trends in variances of Tmin are uncertain.

Tmax

Tmin

Trends

Variances

Trends

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Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation during the 1958 to 2010 period (USGCRP 2009)

Percent increases in the amount falling in very heavy rain events defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events from 1958 to 2010 for each region

Changes in the Eastern half of the nation are statistically significant at the 0.05 or higher levels and over the Great Plains, at the 0.1 level

Annual

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SEA LEVEL RISE and ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET MELTING ETKINS & VINNIKOV, not yet published

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Vinnikov et al., 2005 42

Russia, 1976: DETECTION OF GLOBAL WARMING

Budyko & Vinnikov, 1976

Arctic

N.H.

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OBSERVED AND MODELED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SEA ICE EXTENTVinnikov et al., 1999

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Vinnikov et al., 200345