CityU Hong Kong Nov 09 11 Marine Ecosystems in a Changing Climate Ken Denman Fisheries and Oceans Canada EC Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

CityU Hong Kong Nov 09 11

Marine Ecosystems in a ChangingMarine Ecosystems in a Changing ClimateClimate

Ken Denman

Fisheries and Oceans Canada

EC Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysisc/o University of Victoria, BC, Canada

&Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sidney, BC

Email: [email protected]

U. Victoria


'End to End' View of Marine Ecosystems'End to End' View of Marine Ecosystems

Plankton Nekton

SalpsSalps

JuvenileFinfish

JuvenileFinfish

SmallPelagics

SmallPelagics

?

WhalesWhales

AdultFinfishAdult

FinfishHumansHumans

SealsSeals

Sea lionsSea lions

Mass Flow

End Endto


Ocean Ecosystems Ocean Ecosystems Climate Climate

1.Direct links between ocean ecosystems and climate,e.g.

– thermal regulation of physiological rates

– temperature affects biological sources and sinks for oxygen

2.Indirect links via 'Biogeochemistry', e.g.

– ocean biota regulate sequestration of atmospheric CO2 by the ocean by affecting surface pCO2, pH, export of C to ocean interior via 'biotic pumps‘, etc.

– oceanic biota regulate dissolved O2 concentrations, and hence production of the gases, N2 and especially N2O

3.Physical transport, e.g.– currents, mixing, gravitational sinking (& buoyant

rising)


Future COFuture CO22 Emissions ScenariosEmissions Scenarios

[from Raupach et al., [from Raupach et al., US. Proc. Natl Acad SciUS. Proc. Natl Acad Sci

Vol. 104, 12 June 2007] Vol. 104, 12 June 2007] ##

20062005

20062005

# Updated from the Global Carbon Project website, Oct. 2008; & BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2009

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Fo

ssil

Fu

el E

mis

sio

n (

GtC

/y)

CDIACIEAall

A1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)

B1(Av)B2(Av)

Observed rate of increase (3.5 % /year) for 2000-07 is ~4 times that in 1990s


[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_development_index]

The Human Development IndexThe Human Development IndexCombines 4 measures & ranges from 0 to 1Combines 4 measures & ranges from 0 to 1• Life expectancy at birth• Literacy

UN Development Programme: [http://hdr.undp.org/]

• Education• GDP per capita

0.950 and over 0.900–0.949 0.850–0.8990.800–0.8490.750–0.7990.700–0.7490.650–0.6990.600–0.649 0.550–0.599 0.500–0.549 0.450–0.499 0.400–0.449 0.350–0.399 under 0.350 not available


Human Development Index vs Human Development Index vs Per Capita Fossil Fuel Per Capita Fossil Fuel

EmissionsEmissions

Qatar 79.3

Trinidad and Tobago

Equatorial GuineaIndia

Canada

USA

IcelandNorwaySweden

Kuwait

China

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.1 1 10 100

Hong KongHong Kong

Hong KongHong Kong


Natural Variability in N. Pacific Sea Surface Temperature (SST)

B. Projected model average decadal winter mean SST (2040-2049),relative to 1980-1999 patternfrom the Hadley Centre data

7

Climate Variability Is LargeClimate Variability Is Large

Jim Overland and Muyin Jim Overland and Muyin WangWang2007, EOS/AGU 88(16)2007, EOS/AGU 88(16)

A.OBSERVEDOBSERVED SST anomaly (Nov – SST anomaly (Nov – Mar) Mar) for 1901-1999 for 1901-1999

(from UK Hadley Centre SST (from UK Hadley Centre SST analysis)analysis)

A


Warming Is Not Smooth: Natural Variability Can Warming Is Not Smooth: Natural Variability Can Reverse Warming Trend for a Decade or MoreReverse Warming Trend for a Decade or More

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

Sea

Su

rfac

e T

emp

erat

ure

An

om

aly

(oC

)

SRES Projected

Projected 'Observed'

SRES Scenario 'A1B' mean SSTfrom 10 IPCC-AR4 coupled models

Blue curve + observed 'variability' for

for the 20th century

Blue curve + observed Nov-Mar SST 'variability' for the 20th century from the Hadley Centre

N

ort

h P

acif

ic 2

0-60

ºN 'E

OF

1'

From Overland and Wang, 2007, EOS/AGU 88(16)


T (C) highest in northern Polar regions during northern winter

(T, annual)

Fig. 11.21

Warming is NOT Spatially UniformWarming is NOT Spatially Uniform

Arctic 60o-90oN 2080-2090 minus 1980-1999 for 21 models

A1BA1B scenario

50% All

AR4 WG1 Fig. 11.19

Month

1010

12

14

88

66

4

2

0

Global mean warming Global mean warming for for A1B A1B scenarioscenario

is is 2.7°C2.7°C

55

77

44


'Best' 6 Models Predict 'Ice Free' Arctic 'Best' 6 Models Predict 'Ice Free' Arctic By September 2037By September 2037

•Retained 6 of 23 IPCC AR4 models based on simulation of seasonal cycle and Sept sea ice extent ±20% HadlISST for 1980-1999

•Year of 25th percentile is 20282028 and 75th percentile is 20482048 [Wang and Overland, 2009. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, [Wang and Overland, 2009. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36,

L07502]L07502]

14 ensemble runs for eachof A1B and A2 scenarios

Sept 08

Medianice extent

Expect huge changes in Arctic ecosystemsExpect huge changes in Arctic ecosystems


Most Recent Projection of Global Warming:Most Recent Projection of Global Warming:

The 'Roulette Wheel'

400 simulations with the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model:• improved economic analysis & modelling• includes effects of 20th century volcanic activity that was masking warming

Sokolov et al., accepted and on line, J. Climate.

Median Surface Warming 5.2°C (90%: 3.5 – 7.4°C)

(more than 80% probability warming greater than 4°C)


Projected: Projected: Warming, Freshening, Stratifying, Warming, Freshening, Stratifying, Longer Phyto. Growing Season, Less Ice CoverLonger Phyto. Growing Season, Less Ice Cover (Warming – Control) for 2040 to 2060 period

for 6 Climate Models

Sarmiento et al., 2004, Global Biochem. Cycles, 18(3)

g) Length ofGrowing Season

e) Strengthof Stratification


Increasing Stratification Leads to Increasing Stratification Leads to Decreasing Net Primary Production (NPP) Decreasing Net Primary Production (NPP)

for SST>15for SST>15ºCºC

Global NPP

NPP, SST > 15oC

Incre

asin

Incre

asin

gg

Behrenfeld et al., 2006. Nature, 444, 752-755

SeaWiFS multi-band SeaWiFS multi-band ocean colour ocean colour satellitesatellite


AddingAdding CO CO22 Increases Ocean Acidity Increases Ocean Acidity K1 K2

CO2 + H2O HCO3- + H+ CO3

2- + 2H+

CO2 + H2O+ CO3

2- 2HCO3-

"Bjerrum plot"

CO2*


Open Ocean pH Is DecreasingOpen Ocean pH Is Decreasing

Figure 5.9

29N, 15W

23N, 158W

32N, 64W

1985 2005

Left

•Surface pCO2 increases with time

Right•Surface pH decreases

pH = -log [H+]

IPCC AR4 WG1 Fig. 5.9

HOTSHOTS


CCCma Ocean Model Surface pH CCCma Ocean Model Surface pH DecreaseDecrease

No Emissions

Observed + A2 Emissions

0.0.11

0.14 – 0.14 – 0.350.35

IPCIPCCCAR4AR4

Due primarily to adding Due primarily to adding COCO2 2 , not to the changing , not to the changing climateclimate


The Acidification of the World OceanThe Acidification of the World Ocean

1950

p H

2000

2050

2100

'A2' Scenario from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCMA) Earth System Model CanESM1: Zahariev, Christian & Denman, 2008; Arora et al., in press, J. Climate; Christian et al., under revision, JGR-Biogeosciences

7.75


Lower Lower ppH Threatens Corals,H Threatens Corals, Coccolithophorids & Pteropods Coccolithophorids & Pteropods

Cold water corals on sill (at ~60m depth) in Knight Inlet BC(courtesy Verena Tunnicliffe, U. Victoria)


Carbonate (CaCOCarbonate (CaCO33) Pump -) Pump - Coccolithophorid Coccolithophorid Emiliania huxleyiEmiliania huxleyi

Image courtesy of Southampton Image courtesy of Southampton Oceanography Centre, UKOceanography Centre, UK

SEM imageSEM image

SeaWiFS ‘true SeaWiFS ‘true colour’ image colour’ image 16 July 200016 July 2000

MODIS 'true colour' image25 June 2006 (courtesy NASA)

SeaWiFS ‘true SeaWiFS ‘true colour’ image 25 colour’ image 25

April 1998April 1998


What $$-value do we place on species What $$-value do we place on species that most people do not even know that most people do not even know

exist?exist?20

Pteropods are Pteropods are made up of made up of aragonite aragonite

CaCOCaCO33

Limacina Limacina helicinahelicina

are a food source for juvenile North Pacific salmon and also for mackerel, herring and cod.

Limacina helicina [credits: Brad Seibel]

Limacina helicina [R. Hopcroft, UAlaska]


economic economic consequences on consequences on

commercial fisheriescommercial fisheries

C

atc

h v

alu

e,

$ M

GreensGreens - predators

YellowsYellows – primarily calcite CaCO3

RedsReds – primarily aragonite

US 2007 US 2007 FisheriesFisheries'Primary Value''Primary Value'

MollusksMollusks 19% 19%

CrustaceansCrustaceans 30% 30%

Direct Predators Direct Predators 24%24% on calcifierson calcifiers

Sum 73 %


Regions of Low Dissolved OxygenRegions of Low Dissolved Oxygen

Climatological mean dissolved Oxygen (mL/L) at a depth of 400 m.Climatological mean dissolved Oxygen (mL/L) at a depth of 400 m.1.15 mL1.15 mL // L L 50 µmol 50 µmol // kgkg


Expanding Oxygen Minimum Zones Expanding Oxygen Minimum Zones in the Tropical Oceansin the Tropical Oceans

Stramma et al., 2008, Science, 320, 655-658

OO22 at 400 m at 400 m

( (μμmol kgmol kg−1−1))


Expanding OExpanding O22 Minimum Zones in the Tropical Minimum Zones in the Tropical OceansOceans

Stramma et al., 2008, Science, 320.Stramma et al., 2008, Science, 320.

Data from Area

'A''A'


Crawford et al. 2007 Prog. Oceanogr. 75(2)Crawford et al. 2007 Prog. Oceanogr. 75(2)

Dissolved ODissolved O22 in NE Pacific in NE Pacific

% Oxygen % Oxygen SaturationSaturation

on 26.5 on 26.5 -- surfacesurface0 to 4646 to 6262 to 120

3

4

5

6

7

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

12

P26 26.7 = -0.67 uM y-1

P4 26.7 = -1.2 uM y-1

0

50

100

150

200

250

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

Oxy

gen

(µ

mol

kg-1)

F. Whitney, in: DFO Ocean Status Report 2006, W. Crawford (ed.)

(~170 m)

(~280 m)P426.7

OSP26.7


Organic Matter 'OM' Organic Matter 'OM' LossLoss

C106H175O42N16P + 150150 OO22

106106 COCO22 + 16 HNO3 + H3PO4 + 78 H2O

SourceSource Dissolved nutrientsDissolved nutrients

26

Remineralization Uses ORemineralization Uses O22 & Produces & Produces COCO22 Subsurface areas of low O2 may also be areas

of high CO2 / low pH due to cumulative effect of respiration / remineralization of organic particulates by bacteria

In aerobicaerobic conditions:Equation from: Sarmiento and Gruber, Ocean Biogeochemical Dynamics, 2007.

Decreasing ODecreasing O22 in low O in low O22 regions may lead to: regions may lead to:• Hypoxia or anerobic conditions in adjacent upwelling regions

• Increasing water column denitrification in low O2 layers & sediments

• Denitrification results in N2 and NN22OO production


Depth of Depth of 'Corrosive' 'Corrosive' pH < 7.75 pH < 7.75 Waters on Waters on

Continental Continental ShelfShelf

Feely et al., 2008, Science

"…without the anthropogenicsignal, the equilibrium aragonite saturation level … would be deeper by about 50 m across the shelf, …"


Dissolved oxygen profiles during the upwelling season, mid-April to mid-

October (42N to 46N)

F.Chan et al., Science 319, 920 (2008)

Recent ORecent O22 Changes off Oregon Changes off Oregon

1950-991950-99n = 3101 castsn = 3101 casts

1950-20051950-2005+ 834 casts+ 834 casts

+2006+ 220 casts

(50 (50 μμmol/kg mol/kg 1.12 1.12 mL/L)mL/L)


The Coastal Ocean: More Hypoxia The Coastal Ocean: More Hypoxia Events?Events?

Dead zone off Newport, Oregon 2002,04,06

[www.piscoweb.org PISCO at OSU]

(50 (50 μμmol/kg mol/kg 1.12 mL/L)1.12 mL/L)

See also:Grantham et al. 2004Nature, 229, 749-753


How Fast Can Organisms Adapt & Evolve?How Fast Can Organisms Adapt & Evolve?

Our foodweb models need parameters that 'adapt/change' in response to changing ocean conditions:

• What is the species diversity within a functional group?

• What is the genetic diversity (plasticity) within a species?

• Is a century a long enough time for evolution via genetic mutations?

– Requires a minimum of ~25 generations??

Which species will be threatened with extinction?

ThanksThanks [email protected]


Documents

CityU Hong Kong Nov 09 11 Marine Ecosystems in a Changing Climate Ken Denman Fisheries and Oceans Canada EC Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis