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1,684 Likely General Election Voters Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.4% September 26-28, 2012 Who would you vote for in the race for U.S. Senate—Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or Former Governor Linda Lingle? [name order randomized] Senate Hirono 55% Lingle 39% Unsure 6% Total 100% Do you have children who are in Hawaii public schools now, or who attended public schools within the last 10 years? Kids_in_School Yes 32% No 67% Unsure 1% Total 100% In your mind, how good an education do Hawaii's public school students receive—excellent, good, fair, or poor? Educ_Quality Excellent 5% Good 34% Fair 44% Poor 14% Unsure 3% Total 100% 1

Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

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Page 1: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

1,684 Likely General Election Voters Sampling Margin of Error +/-2.4% September 26-28, 2012

Who would you vote for in the race for U.S. Senate—Congresswoman Mazie Hirono, or Former Governor Linda Lingle? [name order randomized]

Senate

  Hirono 55%

Lingle 39%

Unsure 6%

Total 100%

Do you have children who are in Hawaii public schools now, or who attended public schools within the last 10 years?

Kids_in_School

  Yes 32%

No 67%

Unsure 1%

Total 100%

In your mind, how good an education do Hawaii's public school students receive—excellent, good, fair, or poor?

Educ_Quality

  Excellent 5%

Good 34%

Fair 44%

Poor 14%

Unsure 3%

Total 100%

1

Page 2: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

How much of a negative impact did Furlough Fridays, which closed public schools twice each month from 2009 to 2011, have on the quality of education in Hawaii?

Furloughs

  Major Negative 40%

Minor Negative 32%

Not Negative 15%

Unsure 13%

Total 100%

How much of a negative impact does the unresolved contract dispute—still ongoing after teachers rejected an offer from the state earlier this year—have on the quality of education in Hawaii?

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative 29%Minor Negative 34%

Not Negative 13%

Unsure 24%

Total 100%

How do you currently feel about the country’s economy?

Economy

   Positive 57%

Negative 40%

Unsure 3%

Total 100%

2

Page 3: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Senate * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation

% within Kids_in_School

Kids_in_School

Yes No UnsureSenate Hirono 48% 59% 58%

Lingle 45% 36% 11%

Unsure 7% 5% 32%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Senate Crosstabulation

% within Senate

Senate

Hirono Lingle UnsureKids_in_School

Yes 27% 37% 36%No 71% 62% 57%

Unsure 1% 0% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Senate * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation

% within Educ_Quality

Educ_Quality

Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureSenate Hirono 63% 66% 56% 33% 35%

Lingle 31% 27% 40% 63% 40%

Unsure 6% 7% 4% 4% 26%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Senate Crosstabulation

% within Senate

Senate

Hirono Lingle UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 4%

Good 41% 24% 42%

Fair 44% 46% 31%

Poor 9% 24% 11%

Unsure 2% 3% 12%

Total 100% 100% 100%

3

Page 4: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Senate * Furloughs Crosstabulation

% within Furloughs

Furloughs

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Senate Hirono 75% 51% 14% 55%Lingle 18% 47% 82% 31%

Unsure 7% 2% 4% 14%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Senate Crosstabulation

% within Senate

Senate

Hirono Lingle UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 54% 19% 47%

Minor Negative 29% 39% 12%

Not Negative 4% 32% 10%

Unsure 13% 10% 31%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Senate * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation

% within Teacher_Contract

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Senate Hirono 57% 62% 42% 53%Lingle 39% 34% 55% 36%

Unsure 4% 5% 3% 11%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Senate Crosstabulation

% within Senate

Senate

Hirono Lingle UnsureTeacher_Contract

Major Negative 30% 30% 19%Minor Negative 38% 30% 28%

Not Negative 9% 18% 7%

Unsure 23% 23% 46%

Total 100% 100% 100%

4

Page 5: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Senate * Economy Crosstabulation

% within Economy_Condensed

Economy_Condensed

Positive Negative UnsureSenate Hirono 78% 25% 35%

Lingle 17% 72% 9%

Unsure 6% 4% 56%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Economy * Senate Crosstabulation

% within Senate

Senate

Hirono Lingle UnsureEconomy Positive 81% 25% 53%

Negative 18% 74% 23%

Unsure 2% 1% 24%

Total 100% 100% 100%

5

Page 6: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Senate * Gender Crosstabulation

% within Gender

Gender

Male FemaleSenate Hirono 52% 59%

Lingle 42% 35%

Unsure 6% 6%

Total 100% 100%

Senate * Age Crosstabulation

% within Age

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Senate Hirono 49% 51% 54% 56% 57%

Lingle 40% 25% 42% 40% 39%

Unsure 11% 24% 3% 4% 4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Senate * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation

% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_Ethnicity

Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian ChineseHispanic/

Latino Other/MixedSenate Hirono 51% 67% 46% 54% 43% 58% 52%

Lingle 46% 29% 38% 42% 44% 42% 38%

Unsure 4% 4% 17% 4% 13%   10%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Senate * Politics Crosstabulation

% within Politics

Politics

Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

Senate Hirono 88% 59% 16% 47%Lingle 7% 37% 81% 36%

Unsure 5% 4% 3% 16%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

6

Page 7: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Senate * Party_ID Crosstabulation

% within Party_ID

Party_ID

Democrat RepublicanIndependen

t UnsureSenate Hirono 85% 5% 34% 16%

Lingle 11% 92% 60% 40%

Unsure 5% 2% 6% 44%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Senate * Education Crosstabulation

% within Education

Education

No degree

High School Degree

College Degree

Graduate Degree

Senate Hirono 58% 55% 54% 61%Lingle 33% 40% 40% 34%

Unsure 9% 5% 6% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Senate * Military_Family Crosstabulation

% within Military_Family

Military_Family

Yes NoSenate Hirono 58% 56%

Lingle 36% 38%

Unsure 6% 6%

Total 100% 100%

Senate * Income Crosstabulation

% within Income

IncomeLess than

$50,000

$50,000-$100,00

0

$100,000 or

moreSenate Hirono 61% 54% 55%

Lingle 33% 42% 40%

Unsure 7% 5% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100%

7

Page 8: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Kids_in_School * Gender Crosstabulation

% within Gender

Gender

Male FemaleKids_in_School

Yes 33% 31%No 66% 68%

Unsure 1% 1%

Total 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Age Crosstabulation

% within Age

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Kids_in_School

Yes 48% 26% 43% 41% 21%No 52% 68% 57% 58% 77%

Unsure   6%   1% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation

% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_Ethnicity

Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian ChineseHispanic/

Latino Other/MixedKids_in_School

Yes 31% 29% 50% 45% 24% 42% 43%No 68% 70% 46% 53% 75% 58% 55%

Unsure 1% 1% 4% 2% 1%   2%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Politics Crosstabulation

% within Politics

Politics

Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

Kids_in_School

Yes 28% 34% 32% 34%No 70% 66% 68% 62%

Unsure 2% 1%   4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

8

Page 9: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Kids_in_School * Party_ID Crosstabulation

% within Party_ID

Party_ID

Democrat RepublicanIndependen

t UnsureKids_in_School

Yes 30% 30% 36% 38%No 69% 70% 63% 50%

Unsure 1%   1% 12%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Education Crosstabulation

% within Education

Education

No degree

High School Degree

College Degree

Graduate Degree

Kids_in_School

Yes 31% 33% 32% 31%No 64% 65% 67% 68%

Unsure 6% 1% 1% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Military_Family Crosstabulation

% within Military_Family

Military_Family

Yes NoKids_in_School

Yes 46% 30%No 53% 69%

Unsure 1% 1%

Total 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Income Crosstabulation

% within Income

IncomeLess than

$50,000

$50,000-$100,00

0

$100,000 or

moreKids_in_School

Yes 30% 38% 28%No 70% 61% 71%

Unsure 1% 1% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100%

9

Page 10: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Educ_Quality * Gender Crosstabulation

% within Gender

Gender

Male FemaleEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 5%

Good 31% 36%

Fair 44% 43%

Poor 18% 12%

Unsure 2% 4%

Total 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Age Crosstabulation

% within Age

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Educ_Quality Excellent   7% 5% 4% 6%

Good 21% 28% 28% 30% 42%

Fair 49% 50% 49% 47% 37%

Poor 29% 11% 17% 17% 10%

Unsure   3% 1% 2% 4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation

% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_Ethnicity

Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian ChineseHispanic/

Latino Other/MixedEduc_Quality Excellent 3% 6% 13% 4% 4%   6%

Good 26% 42% 34% 33% 43% 38% 25%

Fair 47% 40% 39% 38% 44% 54% 45%

Poor 22% 8% 9% 22% 5% 8% 20%

Unsure 1% 4% 5% 4% 4%   4%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Politics Crosstabulation

% within Politics

Politics

Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 3% 6% 6%Good 33% 36% 27% 41%

Fair 45% 46% 43% 37%

Poor 14% 14% 21% 6%

Unsure 1% 1% 3% 10%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

10

Page 11: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Educ_Quality * Party_ID Crosstabulation

% within Party_ID

Party_ID

Democrat RepublicanIndependen

t UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 4% 9%

Good 40% 26% 27% 24%

Fair 43% 45% 43% 50%

Poor 9% 21% 23% 3%

Unsure 2% 4% 3% 14%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Education Crosstabulation

% within Education

Education

No degree

High School Degree

College Degree

Graduate Degree

Educ_Quality Excellent 6% 7% 5% 3%Good 51% 34% 32% 34%

Fair 23% 44% 45% 44%

Poor 11% 10% 16% 17%

Unsure 9% 4% 2% 1%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Military_Family Crosstabulation

% within Military_Family

Military_Family

Yes NoEduc_Quality Excellent 12% 4%

Good 33% 34%

Fair 28% 46%

Poor 25% 13%

Unsure 2% 3%

Educ_Quality * Income Crosstabulation

% within Income

IncomeLess than

$50,000

$50,000-$100,00

0

$100,000 or

moreEduc_Quality Excellent 6% 5% 3%

Good 34% 33% 31%

Fair 44% 46% 45%

Poor 13% 15% 18%

Unsure 3% 1% 4%

Total 100% 100% 100%

11

Page 12: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Furloughs * Gender Crosstabulation

% within Gender

Gender

Male FemaleFurloughs Major Negative 37% 42%

Minor Negative 34% 31%

Not Negative 20% 12%

Unsure 9% 16%

Total 100% 100%

Furloughs * Age Crosstabulation

% within Age

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Furloughs Major Negative 32% 56% 50% 40% 36%

Minor Negative 28% 19% 29% 35% 33%

Not Negative 19% 18% 17% 15% 15%

Unsure 21% 8% 4% 10% 17%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation

% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_Ethnicity

Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian ChineseHispanic/

Latino Other/MixedFurloughs Major

Negative40% 42% 40% 46% 31% 54% 39%

Minor Negative

34% 31% 23% 28% 36% 23% 29%

Not Negative

16% 13% 17% 15% 19% 8% 18%

Unsure 10% 15% 19% 11% 14% 15% 14%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Politics Crosstabulation

% within Politics

Politics

Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

Furloughs Major Negative

55% 41% 23% 35%

Minor Negative

29% 33% 39% 25%

Not Negative

6% 16% 29% 11%

Unsure 10% 11% 9% 30%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

12

Page 13: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Furloughs * Party_ID Crosstabulation

% within Party_ID

Party_ID

Democrat RepublicanIndependen

t UnsureFurloughs Major

Negative51% 22% 29% 31%

Minor Negative

29% 32% 38% 22%

Not Negative 8% 31% 21% 17%

Unsure 12% 15% 12% 29%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Education Crosstabulation

% within Education

Education

No degree

High School Degree

College Degree

Graduate Degree

Furloughs Major Negative 37% 37% 41% 41%Minor Negative 17% 32% 32% 33%

Not Negative 26% 16% 15% 14%

Unsure 20% 15% 12% 12%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Military_Family Crosstabulation

% within Military_Family

Military_Family

Yes NoFurloughs Major Negative 49% 39%

Minor Negative 25% 33%

Not Negative 20% 15%

Unsure 6% 14%

Total 100% 100%

Furloughs * Income Crosstabulation

% within Income

IncomeLess than

$50,000

$50,000-$100,00

0

$100,000 or

moreFurloughs Major Negative 40% 40% 42%

Minor Negative 32% 30% 36%

Not Negative 14% 18% 14%

Unsure 15% 12% 8%

Total 100% 100% 100%

13

Page 14: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Teacher_Contract * Gender Crosstabulation

% within Gender

Gender

Male FemaleTeacher_Contract

Major Negative 29% 29%Minor Negative 37% 31%

Not Negative 15% 12%

Unsure 20% 28%

Total 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Age Crosstabulation

% within Age

Age

18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+Teacher_Contract

Major Negative 34% 36% 30% 31% 25%Minor Negative 18% 30% 38% 35% 35%

Not Negative 7% 11% 15% 12% 14%

Unsure 41% 23% 17% 22% 26%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation

% within Race_Ethnicity

Race_Ethnicity

Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian ChineseHispanic/

Latino Other/MixedTeacher_Contract

Major Negative

26% 31% 33% 38% 26% 25% 32%

Minor Negative

37% 30% 27% 31% 43% 33% 26%

Not Negative

16% 11% 7% 13% 12% 8% 12%

Unsure 21% 28% 33% 18% 18% 33% 30%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Politics Crosstabulation

% within Politics

Politics

Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative Unsure

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative

32% 31% 30% 19%

Minor Negative

40% 35% 29% 25%

Not Negative

10% 14% 18% 8%

Unsure 19% 20% 24% 49%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

14

Page 15: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Teacher_Contract * Party_ID Crosstabulation

% within Party_ID

Party_ID

Democrat RepublicanIndependen

t UnsureTeacher_Contract

Major Negative

32% 26% 28% 12%

Minor Negative

36% 31% 33% 17%

Not Negative

11% 16% 16% 7%

Unsure 22% 26% 23% 64%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Education Crosstabulation

% within Education

Education

No degree

High School Degree

College Degree

Graduate Degree

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative 14% 30% 33% 24%Minor Negative 25% 26% 33% 43%

Not Negative 22% 9% 13% 16%

Unsure 39% 36% 21% 17%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Military_Family Crosstabulation

% within Military_Family

Military_Family

Yes NoTeacher_Contract

Major Negative 37% 28%Minor Negative 28% 34%

Not Negative 19% 12%

Unsure 16% 26%

Total 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Income Crosstabulation

% within Income

IncomeLess than

$50,000

$50,000-$100,00

0

$100,000 or

moreTeacher_Contract

Major Negative

30% 26% 31%

Minor Negative

31% 36% 37%

Not Negative 9% 14% 17%

Unsure 29% 23% 15%

Total 100% 100% 100%

15

Page 16: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Educ_Quality * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation

% within Kids_in_School

Kids_in_School

Yes No UnsureEduc_Quality Excellent 6% 4% 26%

Good 35% 34% 21%

Fair 43% 44% 5%

Poor 15% 14% 5%

Unsure 1% 3% 42%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation

% within Educ_Quality

Educ_Quality

Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureKids_in_School

Yes 39% 33% 32% 34% 7%No 54% 67% 68% 65% 75%

Unsure 6% 1% 0% 0% 18%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation

% within Kids_in_School

Kids_in_School

Yes No UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 39% 40% 21%

Minor Negative 32% 32% 21%

Not Negative 20% 13% 0%

Unsure 9% 14% 58%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Furloughs Crosstabulation

% within Furloughs

Furloughs

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Kids_in_School

Yes 32% 32% 42% 21%No 68% 67% 58% 74%

Unsure 1% 1% 0% 5%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

16

Page 17: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Teacher_Contract * Kids_in_School Crosstabulation

% within Kids_in_School

Kids_in_School

Yes No UnsureTeacher_Contract

Major Negative 32% 28% 10%Minor Negative 31% 35% 30%

Not Negative 15% 12%  Unsure 22% 25% 60%

Total 100% 100% 100%

Kids_in_School * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation

% within Teacher_Contract

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Kids_in_School

Yes 35% 29% 38% 29%No 65% 70% 62% 68%

Unsure 0% 1%   3%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Educ_Quality * Furloughs Crosstabulation

% within Furloughs

Furloughs

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Educ_Quality Excellent 5% 4% 7% 4%Good 35% 36% 24% 41%

Fair 45% 46% 42% 35%

Poor 13% 13% 26% 9%

Unsure 2% 2% 2% 10%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Educ_Quality Crosstabulation

% within Educ_Quality

Educ_Quality

Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureFurloughs Major Negative 42% 41% 42% 35% 23%

Minor Negative 25% 33% 34% 29% 20%

Not Negative 22% 10% 14% 28% 9%

Unsure 11% 15% 10% 8% 48%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

17

Page 18: Civil Beat Poll - September 2012 Senate and Education results

Educ_Quality * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation

% within Teacher_Contract

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Educ_Quality Excellent 2% 5% 9% 6%Good 29% 43% 31% 30%

Fair 49% 40% 37% 45%

Poor 19% 9% 23% 12%

Unsure 1% 2% 1% 7%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

% within Educ_Quality

Educ_Quality

Excellent Good Fair Poor UnsureTeacher_Contract

Major Negative 14% 24% 33% 38% 11%Minor Negative 35% 43% 31% 22% 22%

Not Negative 23% 11% 11% 20% 4%

Unsure 28% 22% 25% 20% 62%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Furloughs * Teacher_Contract Crosstabulation

% within Teacher_Contract

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Furloughs Major Negative 63% 40% 18% 24%Minor Negative 25% 44% 30% 24%

Not Negative 8% 11% 47% 13%

Unsure 4% 5% 6% 39%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

Teacher_Contract * Furloughs Crosstabulation

% within Furloughs

Furloughs

Major Negative

Minor Negative

Not Negative Unsure

Teacher_Contract

Major Negative 46% 23% 16% 9%Minor Negative 34% 47% 24% 12%

Not Negative 6% 12% 39% 6%

Unsure 15% 19% 21% 73%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

18