Claire Oaks Barlett, IL April 2, 2012 Artemus Ward Dept. of
Political Science Northern Illinois University [email protected]
Slide 2
Introduction The 2012 presidential election featured a
relatively vulnerable incumbent Democratic president who was
unchallenged for re-nomination. The election also featured a
presumptive Republican nominee whose party was deeply dissatisfied
with him throughout the nominating process. The backdrop was an
ongoing economic recession and an electorate dissatisfied with the
direction America is headed in as characterized by both Tea Party
and Occupy movements.
Slide 3
Getting the GOP Nomination In order to win the party
nomination, candidates compete for delegates who are pledged to
vote for them at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, FL in
late August 2012. There will be 2,286 delegates chosen, and a
candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes at the convention to
win the nomination. 1,944 bound delegates are allocated to the
candidates at caucuses and primaries or later at local conventions.
222 unbound elected delegates cannot commit themselves to any
candidate before they are elected as National Convention Delegates
at their local conventions. 120 unbound RNC delegates or super
delegates are not a part of the primary process but do vote at the
convention.
Slide 4
GOP Dissatisfaction with Romney The 2012 Republican nominating
process was defined by Republican dissatisfaction with the
presumptive nominee Mitt Romney. Romney was the early favorite for
three reasons: he raised the most money, had the most extensive
campaign organization, and have garnered the most important early
endorsements from influential Republicans. Yet at one time or
another, most of his challengers polled ahead of him during the
nominating process: Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt
Gingrich, and Rich Santorum. But Romney was able to sustain his
campaign through each candidates ascendance and he ultimately won
more primaries and pulled ahead in delegates while other dropped
out.
Slide 5
The Republicans Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty ended his
campaign after finishing third in the Iowa straw poll. Rep. Thad
McCotter of Michigan failed to be invited to any of the debates,
suffering "Death by media". Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson
withdrew to run for the Libertarian Party nomination.
Slide 6
The Republicans Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota won the Iowa
Straw Poll but finished 6 th in the Iowa Caucuses with only 5% of
the vote and withdrew. Business executive Herman Cain suspended his
campaign after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct. Former
Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer withdrew to run for the Americans
Elect and Reform Party nominations.
Slide 7
The Republicans Former Utah Governor Jon Hutsman invested
heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third with 17%, he
withdrew. Texas Governor Rick Perry withdrew after placing 5 th in
Iowa with 10% and last in New Hampshire with 1%. Rep. Ron Paul of
Texas sought the Republican nomination in 2008 and in 2012 finished
3 rd in Iowa with 21% and 2 nd in New Hampshire with 23%.
Slide 8
The Republicans Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (GA) won the
South Carolina and Georgia primaries. Former Pennsylvania Senator
Rick Santorum was the last Republican to poll ahead of Romney and,
as a result, peaked just as the primary season was getting
underway. He tied Romney in Iowa and won in CO, MO, MN, ND, OK, TN,
KS, AL, MS, and LA. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was
the frontrunner from the start winning Iowa and New Hampshire along
with FL, NV, ME, AZ, MI, WY, WA, AK, ID, MA, OH, VT, VA, HI, PR,
and IL.
Slide 9
GOP Race for the Nomination Note: Totals as of April 1, 2012.
1,144 needed to win.
Slide 10
The Democrats Barack Obama President of the United States.
There are a number of others who get zero media coverage including:
Jim Rogers (top) retired college professor and perennial political
candidate had received 15,540 popular votes, earning three
delegates through March 2012. Randall Terry (middle) pro-life
activist and founder of Operation Rescue had received 22,734
popular votes as of March 10th, 2012 and had qualified for seven
delegates in the Oklahoma Primary, where he bested Obama in the
vote total in several counties. John Wolfe, Jr. (bottom) attorney
and perennial political candidate from TN, he won a minimum of
three delegates in the LA primary.
Slide 11
Campaign Finance: Super PACs Political Action Committees (PACs)
raise money to support candidates and issues. The 2010 election
marked the rise of the Super PAC -- officially known as
"independent-expenditure only committees". Super PACs raise funds
from corporations, unions and other groups -- a practice upheld by
the U.S. Supreme Court in its 2010 decision in Citizens United v.
Federal Election Commission. In that decision, Justice Anthony
Kennedy wrote for the 5-4 majority: If the First Amendment has any
force, it prohibits Congress from fining or jailing citizens, or
associations of citizens, for simply engaging in political speech.
In dissent, Justice John Paul Stevens wrote: A democracy cannot
function effectively when its constituent members believe laws are
being bought and sold.
Slide 12
Campaign Finance: Republicans Through March 2012, all super
PACs had raised a total of $154 million and spent $82 million
mainly Republicans tearing down other Republicans. For example,
Restore Our Future, the super PAC supporting Mitt Romney, had spent
$37.9 million through March 2012 against other Republicans in the
GOP primary alone.
Slide 13
Slide 14
Campaign Finance: Obama Through February 2012, President Obama
had raised roughly $200 million for his re- election bid. Of course
this did not count the tens of millions raised by the Democratic
National Committee (DNC) and numerous Political Action Committees
(PACs) that raise money to benefit the president and other
democrats in the 2012 election. At the same time, the Obama
campaign had spent more than $135 million on operations through
February 2012--$3 million more than all of his GOP challengers
combined. The Obama campaign had amassed a paid campaign staff of
over 500 people, 330 at the Chicago headquarters in the Prudential
Building and the rest spread throughout the country.
Slide 15
Campaign Finance: Small Donors Small donationsanything from
$1-$10 can also have a huge effect. In 2008, President Obama raised
tens of millions of dollars via the internet through small
donations by individuals. His campaign regularly sends out e-mails
to supporters such as this one from March 31, 2012: Dear _________.
This is important: Thank you. You're why I decided to do this five
years ago -- and why we have the chance to finish it. The next
three months will be tough. Can you pitch in $10 so we're ready for
them? https://donate.barackobama.com/Today Thank you, Barack
https://donate.barackobama.com/Today
Slide 16
Conclusion Despite the ailing economy and Americas overall
disapproval of the direction the country is headed in President
Obama has not faced a serious challenge for re-nomination. Despite
dissatisfaction with the presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, he
appears to be well on his way to winning the GOP nomination.
According to a CNN poll conducted at the end of March 2012,
registered voters picked Obama over Romney 54%-43%. Obamas approval
rating was just above 50%. Will Romney be able to defeat Obama
during the general election?