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485MassachusettsAvenue,Suite2Cambridge,Massachusetts02139
617.661.3248|www.synapse-energy.com
CleanEnergyforLosAngelesAnanalysisofapathwayfor100percentrenewableenergyinLosAngelesby2030
PreparedforFood&WaterWatch
March7,2018AUTHORS
PatKnightArielHorowitz,PhDSpencerFieldsNinaPeluso
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles
CONTENTS
FOREWORD.......................................................................................................ES-1
EXECUTIVESUMMARY.........................................................................................ES-2
1. BACKGROUND.................................................................................................11.1. California’selectricgrid......................................................................................................1
1.2. LosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower....................................................................5
1.3. RenewablepolicyinCaliforniaandLosAngeles.................................................................6
2. ANALYSISAPPROACHANDMODELINGMETHODOLOGY.............................................102.1. TheEnCompassModel.....................................................................................................10
2.2. Keyinputassumptions.....................................................................................................11
2.3. Whatcountsasrenewablegeneration?...........................................................................14
2.4. Differenceinpolicycaseinputs........................................................................................15
3. FINDINGS.....................................................................................................163.1. Capacity...........................................................................................................................16
3.2. Generation.......................................................................................................................17
3.3. 100percentrenewableoperation....................................................................................18
3.4. Emissions.........................................................................................................................20
3.5. Systemcosts....................................................................................................................21
3.6. KeydifferencesbetweenPolicycases..............................................................................23
CONCLUSIONS......................................................................................................24
APPENDIXA.THEENCOMPASSMODEL.....................................................................A1
APPENDIXB.MODELINGINPUTASSUMPTIONS.............................................................B1ModelingBackground...............................................................................................................B1
ModelingInputs........................................................................................................................B1
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-1
FOREWORD
Wenowsitatacriticalenergyfuturecrossroadthatwilldecidethefateoftheplanet.Ifwecontinuetotraveldownourcurrentpathoffossilfueladdiction,relyingprincipallyoncoal,oil,andgastopowerourhomes,businesses,andtransportation,wewillfaceanintensifyingclimatedisasterofwildfires,floods,droughts,andotherdevastatingandunavoidablepublicandenvironmentalhealthimpacts.
Orwecanchangecourseandchoosetheroadto100percentrenewables.Wecancreateasocietywhereclean,carbon-freesolar,wind,andgeothermalsourcesprovidealltheenergyweneedtomaintainourcurrentlifestylewhilesavingtheplanet.Giventheconsequences,thechoicewemustmakeisclear.
Thisreportprovidesaroadmapto100percentrenewableenergyforLosAngeles,enablingthedrivetoacleanenergyfuture.TheroadmaplaysoutcriticalstepstoabetterfutureforLosAngeleswhileprovidingamodelothercitiesandstatescanalsofollowtomoveawayfromfossilfuelstowardcleanenergysystems.
LosAngeles’electedleaders,shouldtheyadoptthisplan,willhavethepowertoturnthefossilfueltidebymandatingthattheLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP)transitionto100percentrenewableenergyby2030.LADWPisthecountry’slargestpublicutility—itsleadershipinthistransitionwouldsetapowerfulexampleforthenationandtheworld.Arenewably-poweredLosAngeleswillcleantheair,createwell-paidlocaljobs,promoteenergyindependence,andleadtosaferandhealthiercommunitiesforthecity’s4millionresidents.
Moreover,thisstudydemonstratesthatLosAngeles’transitionto100percentrenewableenergyisnotonlyfeasible,butthatitwillactuallybecheaperforLADWPratepayers.Prioritizationofdistributedrooftopsolarandenergyefficiencywilldrivedowncosts.
Thetransitioncontemplatesaphase-outoffossilfuelinfrastructureincludingrefineries,gas-firedpowerplants,oilandgaswells,pipelines,andgasstoragefacilitiesthatpoisonresidents.Removingthesepollutionsourceswillcleanupourcommunities,savemoney,andmakeLosAngelessaferduringdisasters,likeearthquakes.Itisalsoimportantthattheneedsofdisplacedworkersinthefossilfuelindustryaretakenintoaccountwithjobtrainingandpriorityforemploymentintherenewablesector.
Whilethisreportshowsthatthisnecessarytransitionispossible,itisnowuptoMayorEricGarcettiandtheLosAngelesCityCounciltotakeactiontomakeithappen.Andit’suptoeveryAngelenotoexercisetheirpoliticalpowerandpushtheirMayorandCouncilmemberstoundertakethistransitionnow.Youngerandfuturegenerationsarecountingonustosucceed.
WenonahHauterExecutiveDirectorFood&WaterWatch
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-2
EXECUTIVESUMMARY
TheLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP)ispushingaheadwithambitiousgoalstoachieve100percentrenewableenergyandisintheprocessofanalyzingafuturewiththatlevelofrenewablegrowth.ThisreportprovidesLADWPwitharoadmapfortwopossiblepathstoachieve100percentrenewableenergyby2030,includingapaththatcansaveratepayersmoney.
LADWP,thelargestmunicipally-runutilityinthecountry,servesnearly1.5millionresidentialhouseholdsandbusinessesinLosAngelesCounty.Thecountyhousesaquarterofthestate’spopulationandaccountsforaboutonetenthofallofCalifornia’selectricityneeds.
Asthestatewiththehighestamountofrenewablegenerationto-date,Californiaisoneofthefirststatestoexperienceoperationalissuesintegratinghighlevelsofvariablegenerationfromwindandtime-concentratedoutputfromsolarfacilities.ForLADWP,orCaliforniaforthatmatter,tobecomewhollypoweredbyrenewablesitmustrequirethatdemandineveryhouroftheyearismetwithrenewableenergy.
Inordertounderstandtheimpactofa100percentrenewablepolicyinLADWP’sserviceterritory,Food&WaterWatchretainedSynapseEnergyEconomics(Synapse)toanalyzehowcurrentelectricaltrendsinLADWPwoulddifferfromafutureinwhichallofLADWP’sneedsaremetthroughnon-emittingrenewables.Usingtheutility-gradeEnCompasselectricitymodel,Synapsemodeledabusiness-as-usual“Reference”caseandtwounique100percentrenewableLADWPcases(collectively,thePolicycases):onereliesheavilyuponutility-scalesolar(theUtility-Scalecase),andtheotherreliesmoreondistributedsolarandstorage(theDistributedcase).Ouranalysisandfindingsfollow.
InthisanalysisoftwopotentialLADWPfutures,wefindthatitis,infact,possibleforLADWPtoexclusivelyuserenewableresourcestopoweritssystemineveryhouroftheyear.What’smore,achievingveryhighlevelsofrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy,allowingLADWPabrief,butnecessary,windowtoplanhowtobestoptimizeafuture100percentrenewablesystem.
Tomeetelectricityneedsineveryhourwith100percentrenewableresources,LADWPmustintegrateandharnessrenewableenergymoreefficientlythroughadditionalefficiency,storage,anddemandresponse.
Inordertoreach100percentrenewableenergyineveryhour,LADWPwillneedtocloseordivestfromallfossil-fueledgeneratorsinitscurrentportfolio.ThismovesbeyondendingitscommitmenttopurchasecapacityfromtheIntermountaincoalplantandincludesretiringallofitslocallyownedandoperatednaturalgasandlandfillgasfacilities.However,asidefromthesechanges,bothour100percentrenewablePolicycaseshavesimilarlevelsofoverallrenewablecapacityastheReferencecasein2030.Thekeydifferenceliesinhowthegridisoperated—toreach100percentrenewablegenerationineveryhouroftheyear,LADWPwillneedtoinvestinenergyefficiencytoreduceoverallload,encouragedemandresponseprogramstoreducethestrainofpeakhoursonthesystem,andbuildstoragecapacity
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-3
tostoreandspreadsolargenerationthroughouttheday.Importantly,these100percentrenewablescenariosdonotallowforcompliancethroughthepurchaseofunbundled(orundeliverable)RenewableEnergyCredits(RECs).Instead,thescenariosrequireallrenewablegenerationusedtoreachthe100percenttargettobeeithersourcedinLosAngelesCountyordirectlydeliverabletotheLADWPgrid.AsseeninFigure1,LADWPwillrelyuponefficiency,demandresponse,andstoredsolargenerationtoclosethegapfromretiringfossilresources.
Figure1.LADWP’sannualgenerationinselectyearsundereachmodeledscenario
Note:Inthischart,onlycapacitylocatedinordirectlyconnectedtoLADWPisshown.“Other”isprimarilynucleargeneration.
A100percentrenewablefutureexceedsthetargetedemissionreductionsofcurrentregulations.
California’sexistinglegislationrequireseachutilitytoreach50percentrenewablegenerationby2030,aswellastoreduceemissionsto1990levelsby2020andto80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.1UndertheReferencecase,emissionsinLADWP’sserviceterritoryareexpectedtodecreasefromthe14.4millionmetrictonsemittedin2015—or19percentbelow1990levels—tojustunder2millionmetrictonsperyearin2030.2InthePolicycasesemissionsareeliminated,leadingtoafully-decarbonizedelectricsectorby2030(seeFigure2).
1CaliforniaExecutiveOrderS-3-05,availableathttps://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=18612LADWP2016IRP,ES-11.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-4
Figure2.LADWPelectric-sectorCO2emissionsfrom2017to2030
Achieving100percentrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy.
Through2020,thecapacitymixinLADWPinboththeReferencecaseandthePolicycasesarenearlyidentical.TheReferencecasejusthasslightlymorestoragethantheUtilityScalecasein2020andslightlymoredistributedsolarintheDistributedcasein2020.By2025,theReferenceandPolicycasetrajectoriesremainsimilar,butthecleanenergytransitionisthoroughlyunderway:by2025,naturalgascapacityhasdecreasedby50percent,areductionoffsetlargelybyefficiencyandgeothermalpower.By2030,theoverallrenewablecapacityintheReferencecaseandPolicycasesisrelativelysimilar,withtheexceptionoftheretirementofallofLADWP’snaturalgasgeneratingcapacityintheUtilityScalecase.IntheDistributedcase,allofthegascapacityintheregionstillretiresby2030andLosAngeleshasover15percentmoredistributedgenerationcapacitythantheReferencecasein2030.Whilebothdistributedandutilitysolararemodeledasreceivingthesamecapacitycreditforplanningpurposes,distributedsolaroperatesatalowercapacityfactor,meaningmoredistributedcapacityandstoragecapacityarenecessarytotrulytakeadvantageoftheavailablesolarenergy.ThefactthatthethreescenariosaresosimilaroverthefirsteightyearsofthestudyperiodwillallowLADWPtimetofurtherstudy,planfor,andoptimizetheiroperationstoharnesstherenewablegenerationonitsgridtothelevelnecessarytomeet100percentofneedwithrenewablesin2030.Importantly,thelargeamountofdistributedgenerationaddedintheDistributedcasehelpstoreducetheneedforsomeofthetransmissionanddistributionsystemupgradesthatwouldotherwiseberequiredundera100percentrenewablescenario.
Ina100percentrenewable2030,hourlygenerationonthepeaksummerdaywillleveragesolarandstorage.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-5
Anyelectricsectorfuturethatreaches100percentrenewablegenerationtomeetdemandineveryhouroftheyearwillnecessarilyrelyuponamixofstorage,renewablecurtailment,andnewtransmissionlines.Synapse’smodeledscenariofocusesonamixthatisheavyonstorageandcurtailment,whilelightonnewtransmission.Asaresult,thehourlygenerationresultsforapeakdayin2030inthePolicycasesrelyuponsolarandsolar-poweredstoragetomeetdemand:intheUtilityScalecase,thesolargenerationislargelyutility-scale(seeFigure3),whileintheDistributedcase,thesolargenerationislargelydistributed(seeFigure4).
Figure3.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,UtilityScalecase
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-6
Figure4.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,Distributedcase
A100percentrenewableLADWPispossible,anditcostsnearlythesameastheReferencecaseonaNetPresentValuebasis.
NotonlydidwefindthatitistechnicallypossibletooperateLADWP’ssystemwith100percentrenewableresourcesineveryhouroftheyear,thenetpresentvalueofthedifferenceincostbetweentheReferencecaseandDistributedcaseisnearlyeven(seeFigure5).Whilenoneofthescenariosareinexpensive,however,theproductioncostsavingstoLADWPthroughoutthestudyperiodmeanthatthecostofthelastpushto100percentrenewablesin2029and2030aremitigatedintheDistributedcase.Importantly,thesecostresultspresenttheutilitysystemcostsanddonotincludetheconsumer-sidecostsofinstallingrooftopsolar.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-7
Figure5.DifferenceinannualelectricsystemexpenditureDistributedcasesavingsinLADWP,relativetoReferencecase
Conclusion
A100percentrenewablefuturemaybeambitiousbutitisachievable.Thepagesthatfollowwilldemonstratethatitis,infact,possibleforLADWPtouseexclusivelyrenewableresourcestopoweritssystemineveryhouroftheyear.AchievingveryhighlevelsofrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy,allowingLADWPabrief,butnecessary,windowtoplanhowtobestoptimizeafuture100percentrenewablesystem.Tosecurethiscleanenergyfuture,LADWAPwillneedtostrengthenitsoperationofthesystembyleveragingstorage,demandresponse,andenergyefficiency.
Thisstudyillustratestheabilityofthegridtoprovidegenerationtomeetdemandassumingafuturewithhighrelianceonnon-dispatchablegeneration.Itdoesnotaddressallofthetechnicaloperationsofthegridunderthistypeofresourcemix.WhilethePolicycasesdonotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtherenewablecapacitybuildsoftheReferencecase,theydorequireanewapproachtosystemplanningandoperationfromLADWP.Fromasystemcostperspective,a100percentrenewablefutureforLADWPmaybepossibleatnoincrementalcosttotheReferencecase.
WeintendforthisanalysistosupportongoingplanningprocessesandprovideabenchmarkincomparingpotentialhighrenewablesfuturesforLosAngeles.ThescenariosdiscussedinthisreportareonlytwoofmultiplepathsLADWPcouldchoosetoreach100percentrenewables.
Withinthisanalysis,forinstance,thecostsassociatedwithascenariothatleansheavilyonutility-scalesolarareborneoutdifferentlythanthecostsresultingfromdistributedsolarscenario.Withgreaterlevelsofutilityscalesolar,theoverallsystemcostsincrease,representativeofutilitiesbuildingand
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngelesES-8
integratingnew,largescalecapacity.Onthecontrary,higherlevelsofdistributedgenerationresultinlowersystemcosts,astheneedforcapacityanddistributionsystemupgradesareavoided,buthighercoststoindividualconsumers,representativeoftheresponsibilitytoprocurecapacityshiftingfromtheutilitytothecustomer.NeitherofthePolicycasesincorporatesthecostsassociatedwithavoidingadversehealthimpactsandotherexternalitiesassociatedwithfossilfuelgeneration;thePolicycasesmayinfactbeevenmoreeconomicalincomparisontotheReferencecasethanthisstudyshows.
Otherpotential100percentrenewablescenariosmayleanmoreheavilyonstorageresources,allowforcompliancethroughout-of-regionpurchasesofcleangeneration,orrelyupononnascenttechnology,suchasfloatingoffshorewindturbines.Thisanalysisdoesnotsuggestthatonepossibilityisbetterormorerealisticthananother;rather,ourfindingsclearlyshowthata100percentrenewablefutureispossible,thatitcanpotentiallybeachievedatnoincrementalcost,andthatLosAngelesshouldmobilizenowinordertomeetitsgoal.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles1
1. BACKGROUND
Californiaisthemostpopulousstateinthecountrywithnearly40millionresidents.Themajorityofthestateisservedbythreemaininvestor-ownedutilities(IOUs)—SouthernCaliforniaEdison,SanDiegoGasandElectric,andPacificGasandElectric—whichaccountforthree-quartersofCalifornia’selectricsales.WhilethesethreeutilitiesarecollectivelydispatchedbyCalifornia’scentralIndependentSystemOperator(CAISO),otherareasofthestateactindependentlytoprocuresupplyandmeetelectricitydemand.OnesuchareaisLosAngelesCounty,whereelectricityisprovidedbytheLosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower(LADWP).
1.1. California’selectricgrid
Since1990,California’selectricsectorhasbeenservedbyamixofnaturalgas,nuclear,andrenewablecapacity,inadditiontoimportsfromoutofstate.Naturalgashasdominatedthestate’selectricityoutputfornearlythreedecades,fluctuatingbetween40and60percentofoverallin-stategenerationeachyear(seeFigure6).Inthelastfiveyears,thenatureofCalifornia’selectricgridhasbeguntoundergoatransition,asevidencedbyrecentincreasesofin-staterenewablegenerationanddeclininggenerationfrombothnuclearandcoalunits.Whilecoalhasneverrepresentedmorethanafewpercentofin-stategenerationinthepast30years,nuclearresourceshavehistoricallyprovidedabout20percentofthestate’sannualgeneration.FollowingtheretirementoftheSanOnofreNuclearGeneratingStation(SONGS)in2012,onlytheDiabloCanyonnuclearfacilityremains,providingabout10percentofthestate’sgeneration.However,withitslicensessettoexpireinthemid-2020s,DiabloCanyon’sownershaveannounceditwillgothewayofSONGS,withitstwounitsretiringin2024and2025.3
3Seehttp://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-diablo-canyon-nuclear-20160621-snap-story.html
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles2
Figure6.Historicalin-stateelectricitygenerationinCalifornia,percentofstatetotal
Source:EIA923data.Note:Otherincludesoil,biomass,municipalsolidwaste,landfillgas,andotherbiofuelsandwastefuels.Renewablesincludesgeothermal,solarPVandsolarthermal,andwind.
Today,California’sannualdemandforelectricityisabout280TWh.4Tomeetthisdemand,Californiaimports30percentofitselectricityfromneighboringstates.Oftheelectricitygeneratedin-state,aroundhalfcomesfromnaturalgas,whiletheremaininghalfissplitbetweennuclear,hydro,wind,solar,andotherresources(seeFigure7).California’selectricitydemandcomprises7percentofthetotalnationalelectricitydemand.5
4ATWhisequaltoonemillionMWh.5Nationally,aboutoneone-thirdofelectricityisgeneratedfromcoal,one-thirdfromnaturalgas,20percentfromnuclear,withhydro,wind,solar,andotherresourcesmakinguptheremaining15percent.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles3
Figure7.ElectricitygenerationandsalesforCalifornia
California’sloadisservedbythreemainIOUs—SouthernCaliforniaEdison,SanDiegoGasandElectric,andPacificGasandElectric—aswellasnearlyfiftymunicipalutilitiesandirrigationdistricts(seeFigure8).ThesethreemajorIOUsservenearly75percentofallcustomersinthestateandabout70percentofallload.However,LADWPisactuallythethirdlargestutilityinthestate,servingmorecustomersandgreaterloadthanSanDiegoGasandElectric.
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles4
Figure8.MapofCaliforniautilityserviceareas
Source:http://www.energy.ca.gov/maps/serviceareas/electric_service_areas.html
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles5
1.2. LosAngelesDepartmentofWaterandPower
LADWPwasfoundedoveracenturyagowhenthecityofLosAngelespurchasedaprivatelyheldwatercompany.Soonafter,LADWPbeganservingelectricalloadinadditiontowaterdeliveriesthroughoutLosAngelesCounty.With10millionresidents,LosAngelesCountyisthelargestcountyinthestate,morethandoublethesizeofthenextlargestcountybypopulation.LADWPprovideselectricityfornearly1.5millionresidentialandbusinesscustomersthroughoutLosAngelesCounty.Currently,LADWPprovidesabout23TWhofenergyconsumptiontoitscustomers,morethantheelectricityconsumptionof13entirestates.
Asanindependentsystemdispatcher,LADWPisnotonlyresponsibleforprovidingelectricitytoretailconsumers,butalsoforproducingandprocuringelectricityfrompowergenerators.WhiletherecurrentlyareaboutthreedozenpowerplantslocatedwithinLosAngelesCounty,LADWPalsoholdscontractsforimportedelectricityfromgeneratorslocatedelsewhereinCaliforniaandinotherstates.Currently,aboutone-thirdofthiselectricityiscontractedfromthecoal-firedIntermountainPowerPlantinUtah,whichLADWPplanstodivestfromby2025.ThisownershipandoperationofcoalcapacityisasignificantdeparturefromthethreemainIOUsinthestate,allofwhichhavecompletelydivestedfromcoalresources.InadditiontoIntermountainPowerPlant,one-quarterofLADWP’selectricitycomesfromnaturalgas-firedgeneration,muchofwhichislocatedinLosAngelesCounty.One-tenthofitselectricitycomesfromcontractedimportsfornucleargenerationfromthePaloVerdepowerplantinArizona(seeFigure9).Theremainingone-thirdofelectricitycomesfromwind,solar,hydro,andothermiscellaneouspowerplants,someofwhicharelocatedinLosAngelesCountyandsomeasfarawayasthePacificNorthwest.
Figure9.ElectricitygenerationservingtheLADWPregion
Source:LADWP2016IRP,Figure2-14
SynapseEnergyEconomics,Inc. CleanEnergyforLosAngeles6
1.3. RenewablepolicyinCaliforniaandLosAngeles
California’selectric-sectorgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionshavelongbeendominatedbynaturalgas(seeFigure10).Whiletheabsolutevalueofannualemissionsinindividualyearsmayhavevariedoverthelasttwoandahalfdecades,variationsinhydropoweroutputandeconomicrecessionshaveresultedinanoveralltrendinelectricsectoremissionsofsteady,ifslim,growth.Mostrecently,electricsectoremissionshavebeenabout10percentabove1990levels.However,multiplepiecesoflegislationarenowinplacethataimtoreduceGHGemissionsinboththeLADWPserviceterritoryandstatewide.Amongthosepoliciesistherenewableportfoliostandard(RPS).
Figure10.HistoricalemissionsinCalifornia’selectricsector,millionmetrictons
Source:EIAStatelevelemissionsdata,availableat:https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/
HistoryofclimatelegislationinCalifornia
Californiahasalonghistoryofrenewableexpansionandcarbonemissionreductionlegislationin-state.Today’srenewablepoliciesbuildandexpandupontheongoinglegacyofCalifornia’sAB32,theGlobalWarmingSolutionsActof2006.Underthiscurrentlegislation,Californiaisrequiredtoreducesector-wideandstatewideemissionsto1990levelsby2020andto80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.6
Suchlevelsofemissionreductionswillnecessitatethatallsectorsbegintheprocessofdecarbonizing,whichoftenplacesanaddedburdenontheelectricindustry,asindustriesoncerunonfossilfuelsourcesbegintoelectrify.Thepathwaysthatvarioussectorstaketoachieveelectrificationwillimpactthe
6FormoredetailonAB32,seehttps://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ab32/ab32.htm
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electricsector,increasingdemandthatalreadymustbemetbyrenewableresourcesduetootherlegislation.7
HistoryofrenewablelegislationinCalifornia
Inadditiontolegislationthatplacescapsonemissions—andgeneration—fromfossil-firedunits,Californiahasenactedlegislationtorequirenewrenewablegeneration.In2002,theCaliforniaStateSenatepassedSB1078,creatingaRPSforthestatethatrequiredutilitiestoincreasetheshareofrenewablesintheirsystemby1percentperyear.8Fouryearslater,SB107waspassed,confirmingthepreviouslyproposedtargetof20percentrenewablegenerationby2010.9Asthattargetwassettoexpire,GovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggercontinuedtheRPSprogram,signingExecutiveOrderS-14-08toincreasetheRPStargetsto33percentby2020.10Finally,in2015,thestatepassedSB350,requiringloadservingentitiestomeet50percentoftheirdemandwithrenewableresourcesby2030.11
ThroughoutthehistoryofCalifornia’srenewableportfoliostandard,renewableshavebeendefinedasbiomass,solarthermal,solarphotovoltaics(PV),wind,geothermal,fuelcellswithrenewablefuelsources,smallhydro,digestergas,municipalsolidwaste,landfillgas,oceanwave,andoceanthermalortidalenergy.12Importantly,energyfrommunicipalsolidwasteandlandfillgasstillemitscarbondioxide(CO2)andotherco-pollutantsduringthegenerationprocess.Inaddition,todate,noneofthestate’sRPSpolicieshaverequiredthatacertainlevelofrenewablegenerationbemetduringeveryhour,butratherhaverequiredthataportionofannualsalesaremetbyrenewableresourceseachyear.
Considering100percentrenewabletargets
Californialegislatorscontinuetodebatelegislationthatwouldrequirethatthestatereach100percentrenewablegeneration.Asthefifthlargesteconomyintheworld,CaliforniawouldhaveasubstantialimpactonthefutureofcleanenergyintheUnitedStatesandtherestoftheworldifitpassedsuchabill.Itwouldprovideamuchlarger-scaleexampleofa100percentrenewablefuturethanHawaii,currentlytheonlystatewithashighofarenewableintegrationtarget.
7Whileanumberofstudiespresentpotentialdecarbonizationandelectrificationpathways,tworesourcesinparticularareworthcallingtoattention.First,aCalifornia-specific2013paper:Wei,M.,etal.2013.“DeepcarbonreductionsinCaliforniarequireelectrificationandintegrationacrosseconomicsectors.”EnvironmentalResearchLetters.Availableat:http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014038/pdf.Second,themorerecentNewEngland-wideSynapseandNortheastEnergyEfficiencyPartnershipscollaborativereport:Hopkins,A.etal.2017.“NortheasternRegionalAssessmentofStrategicElectrification.”NEEPandSynapse.Availableathttp://neep.org/sites/default/files/Strategic%20Electrification%20Regional%20Assessment.pdf
8http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/documents/documents/SB1078.PDF9http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/documents/documents/sb_107_bill_20060926_chaptered.pdf10http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/11http://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201520160SB35012CaliforniaSBX1-2,Section6(a)(1)http://www.energy.ca.gov/portfolio/documents/sbx1_2_bill_20110412_chaptered.pdf
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Achievinga100percentrenewablefutureisasignificanttaskwithmanyobstacles—political,economic,oroperational—toovercome.Inadditiontoasignificantbuildoutofnewrenewablegenerators,meetingthistargetwillrequirestrongcommitmentstoenergyefficiencyanddistributedgenerationtoreduceoveralldemandonthesystem,aswellasstorageanddemandresponse(DR)programstoshiftloadandsaveexcessrenewablegenerationfortimesofneed.
Californiahasalreadyexperiencedtheramificationsofaddingsubstantiallevelsofsolar—bothutilityscaleanddistributed—tothegrid.Itisthefirststatetoreckonwiththeoperationalconstraintsposedbytheseresources.Theresultingeffectiveloadshapefromintegratinghighlevelsofsolarhascometobeknownasthe“duckcurve.”Intheduckcurve,loadincreasessteadilyinthemorningbeforedroppingabruptlyandremaininglowthroughoutthedayassolarresourcesproduceenergybehindthemeter.Alargeramp-upingenerationisthenrequiredtowardtheendofthedaywhengrossloadishighandsolarisnolongergeneratingathighlevels.
LADWPmovingto100percentrenewablegeneration
InSeptember2016,theLosAngelesCityCouncilvotedtodirectLADWPtodevelopaplantomeet100percentoftheregion’sneedsthroughrenewablegeneration.13Inresponse,LADWPpublishedanupdatedversionofits2015IntegratedResourcePlan(IRP)studyingmoreaspirationalscenariosthanpreviouslyanalyzed.14However,scenariosinLADWP’s2016IRPstillfallshortof100percentrenewables,onlyseekingtoincreaserenewablesfrom25percenttodayto55percentby2030and65percentby2036.
Inits2016IRP,LADWPrecommendsacaseinwhichcoalisreplacedin2025,itsRPSisincreasedfrom33percentin2020to65percentin2036,localsolarcapacityisexpandedby1,500megawatts(MW)by2035,cumulativeenergyefficiencyreaches15percentofsalesby2020,andover400MWofenergystorageisbuiltby2025.15
Further,in2017,MayorEricGarcetticommissionedthe“SustainableCitypLAn”forLosAngeles.RecognizingthattheCityreceivesmorethan250daysofsunshineandhasenoughrooftopspacetohold5,500MWofsolarpower,thepLAnrecommendsbuilding900to1,500MWoflocalsolarcapacityby2025andatotalof1,500to1,800MWby2035.Additionally,thereportsuggestsbuilding1,645MWofenergystoragecapacityintheregion.Finally,thepLAnsuggestsimprovingbuildingefficiencyinorderto
13Page,S.2016.“LosAngelesCityCouncilbacksplanningfor100percentrenewableenergy.”ThinkProgress.Published
September16,2016.Availableathttps://thinkprogress.org/los-angeles-renewable-plan-passes-693daae39d82/14LosAngelesDepartmentofWater&Power.2016.“2016PowerIntegratedResourcePlan.”December2016.Availableat
https://www.ladwp.com/cs/idcplg?IdcService=GET_FILE&dDocName=OPLADWPCCB562207&RevisionSelectionMethod=LatestReleased
152016LADWPIRP.PageES-17.
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reduceenergyusagepersquarefootby30percent,aswellasmeeting15percentofthecity’soverallenergyneedswithefficiencyby2020.16
AlongwithHawaii,Californiaisthestatefurthestalongthetrajectorytowardarenewablefuture.Assuch,itisthefirstonetotrulygrapplewiththeimplicationsofsuchafuturefromagrid,reliability,andintegrationcostperspective.Thestatethatfirstexploredthenotionofaduckcurvewillalsoleadnationaldiscussionsonhowbesttointegrateevenhigherlevelsofrenewablesinthenearfuture.Thisanalysisunearthswhatasystemthatcanmeet100percentofhourlydemandwithrenewablesourcesofgenerationmightlooklike.BystudyingtheimplicationsofsuchapolicyforLosAngeles,thisstudypresentsapossibleresourcemixforanot-too-distant100percentrenewablefutureforLosAngelesthatwillhelpinformhowcleanenergydecisionsaremadeintheCounty,thestate,andotherjurisdictionsnationwide.
16CityofLosAngeles.2017.SustainableCitypLAn.Availableathttp://plan.lamayor.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/the-
plan.pdf
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2. ANALYSISAPPROACHANDMODELINGMETHODOLOGY
InordertoanalyzetheabilityofLADWPtomeeta100percentrenewablefutureexclusivelywithnon-emittingresourcesineveryhouroftheyear,Synapseappliedscenarioanalysis,ananalyticalapproachthatallowsustoexaminenumerouspossiblefutureoutcomes.ImportantinanyscenarioanalysisistheconstructionofaReferencecase.Thiscaserepresentsabusiness-as-usualfuturethatoutlineswhatwillhappenifcurrentpolicies,technologycosts,andotherrelevantassumptionsdonotchange.UsingaReferencecasetoestablishwhatthefuturewilllooklikeiscriticalbecause—evenwithoutanypolicychanges—itwilllooksubstantiallydifferentthantoday.Inthisanalysis,weassumethataReferencecaseisoneinwhichLADWPfollowstherecommendationslaidoutinits2016IRP(i.e.,65percentrenewablesby2036)andelectricutilitiesintherestofCaliforniameetthelawsandregulationsthatarecurrentlyinplace.
SeparatefromtheReferencecasearethePolicycases.Inthisanalysis,weusethePolicycasestoexamineafutureinwhich100percentofLADWP’sdemandismetbynon-emitting,renewableresourcesineveryhouroftheyearby2030.Inthisanalysis,weevaluatetwoPolicycases,oneinwhichsystemplanningapproachestodistributedsolararelargelyunchangedfromthepresent,resultinginacasewithrelativelyhigherlevelsofutility-scalesolar(UtilityScalecase)andasecondcaseinwhichthree-quartersofallavailablerooftopsinLosAngelesconstructrooftopsolar(Distributedcase).17Theadjustmentstosolarresourcesarenottheonlychangestothescenarios,butratheraretheoutcomesthatarerepresentativeofotherdecisionsmade.Forinstance,theDistributedcasereliesupontheassumptionthatLADWPwouldchangetheirapproachtosystemplanningwithregardtothecapacitycreditaffordeddistributedgenerationandtheabilitytointegratedstorageontothesystem.Thefollowingsectionoutlinestheinputs,assumptions,andmodelingmethodologyappliedduringouranalysis.
2.1. TheEnCompassModel
SynapseutilizedtheEnCompassmodelforourscenarioanalysis.EnCompassisasingle,fully-integratedpowersystemplatformthatallowsforutility-scalegenerationplanningandoperationsanalysis.EnCompassprovidesunit-specific,detailedforecastsofthecomposition,operations,andcostsoftheregionalgenerationfleetgiventhespecifiedassumptions.18SynapsesetupEnCompasstoanalyzeLADWP,therestofCalifornia,andtheentireWesternInterconnectonanannualbasisfrom2016through2030.Thisincludedspecifyingloadandgenerationregions(ofwhichLADWPisone)and
17SeeLosAngeles’SustainableCitypLAnathttp://plan.lamayor.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/the-plan.pdfformore
informationonrooftopsolarpotentialinLosAngeles.18SynapseusedEnCompassVersion2.7.MoreinformationonEnCompassisavailableatwww.anchor-power.com.
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specifyingattributesforallexistingpowerplants,suchasoperatingcosts,heatrates,andemissionrates.19
2.2. Keyinputassumptions
Anymodelingexerciseishighlyreliantupontheinputassumptionsused.Forthisanalysis,SynapsereliedmostlyuponthebasedatasetfromCalifornia’sIRPproceeding,whileadjustinganumberofkeyelements,asdescribedbelow.Importantly,fromaninputassumptionperspective,thetwoPolicycasesareidenticalasidefromtheirtreatmentofsolarcapacitywithinLADWP.DifferencesintheresultsofthetwoPolicycasesarerepresentativeofthisonekeychangeininputassumptions.
Demandforecast
Themainpartofasalesforecastistheeconometricsalescomponent.Forthisanalysis,weassumedthateconometricelectricsalesforLADWPandtherestofCaliforniafollowtheprojectiondescribedintheFebruary2017editionoftheCaliforniaEnergyDemandUpdate(CEDU).20Additionally,Synapseassumedabaselineamountofincreasedelectrificationinallscenarios.TheCaliforniaEnergyCommission’s2016IntegratedEnergyPolicyReport(IEPR)assumesthatby2025,LADWPwillfeatureabout600gigawatt-hours(GWh)ofincreasedsalesfromelectricvehicles,andCaliforniaasawholefeatures2,100GWhofelectricvehicle-relatedsales.21ForLADWP,thisrepresentsanincreaseinsalesbyabout3percentin2025.
Inadditiontoestimatingthemaindemandforecast,itisnecessarytoalsodevelopaprojectionforprogrammaticenergyefficiency.22Californiaisamongtheleadingstatesintermsofenergyefficiency:inthe2017ACEEEStateEnergyEfficiencyScorecard,Californiaisrankedsecondinthenation,whileaccordingtothe2016ACEEEScorecard,ittiedforfirstalongwithMassachusetts.In2015,Californiaachievedannualincrementalsavingsof2percentperyear,onparwithVermont,buttrailingthesavingsachievedbyRhodeIslandandMassachusetts(whichreached3percentperyear).InLosAngeles,energy
19ManyoftheReferencecaseinputsforthisstudyweretakenfromplanningprocessesconductedbyLADWP,theCalifornia
PublicUtilitiesCommission(CPUC),ortheWesternElectricityCoordinatingCouncil(WECC).Inparticular,weusedloadforecastprovidedbyLADWPtotheCPUCandreliedonresourcecostandavailabilityassumptionsthatwereformulatedaspartoftheCaliforniastateIRPprocess.Ourbasemodelingdataset,includingunit-specificcostandperformanceassumptionsandtransmissiontopology,wasadaptedfromthepublicly-availableWECCTransmissionExpansionPlanningPolicyCommittee2026referencecasedatabase.
20ReferredtoastheIEPR2016Update.Availableathttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215745_20170202T125433_FINAL_California_Energy_Demand_Updated_Forecast_20172027.pdf
21Seehttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215504_20170123T111108_FINAL_CEDU2016_LADWP_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsandhttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215506_20170123T111112_FINAL_CEDU2016_STATEWIDE_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsformoreinformation
22BecausesalesaretreatedasaconstraintbytheEnCompassmodel,theenergyefficiencyforecasthastobehard-coded:wecannotgivethemodelacostforenergyefficiencyandallowitto“choose”tobuildit,likeitcanwithrenewablesorothertypesofresources.
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efficiencypotentialisparticularlyhigh.Inthecity,4percentofbuildingsconsume50percentofLADWP’senergy,indicatingthatintelligent,cost-effectiveprogramsatthosebuildingscouldleadtosignificantenergyusereductionstoLADWP’ssystem.23GiventhishistoricallevelofachievementinenergyefficiencysavingsinconjunctionwithLosAngeles’energyconsumptionprofile,SynapsemodeledaReferencecaseforecastbasedupontheCEDUreport,andaHighEEcaseforecastthatassumed3percentsavingsperyearasof2024.ThefinaldemandforecastisdemonstratedinFigure11.
Figure11.ForecasteddemandforelectricityinLADWP,inclusiveofenergyefficiencyandelectricvehicles
Whileanyfullyzero-carbonorcarbon-neutralfuturewillrequireindustry-widechangestothetransportation,residential,commercial,andtheindustrialsectors,ouranalysisdoesnottakeintoaccountanyloadofafullydecarbonizedforallsectorsinLosAngeles.24
LADWPrenewableportfoliostandardrequirements
Currently,California’sRPSrequiresCaliforniautilities(includingLADWP)toprocure50percentoftheirelectricsalesfromrenewablesby2030.LADWPproposestoexceedthisstandardintheir2016IRP,
23Formoreinformation,seetheEnergyAtlasatCaliforniaCenterforSustainableCommunities(CCSC)atUCLAInstituteofthe
EnvironmentandSustainability.Availableathttp://www.energyatlas.ucla.edu/profiles/kWh/cities49andhttps://mynewsla.com/government/2016/12/13/la-takes-major-step-in-reducing-building-energy-consumption/.
24TheoneexceptiontothisisabuildoutofanelectrifiedbusfleetwithinLosAngeles,leadingtoanincreaseinLADWP’ssalesof3percentby2025.Ourtreatmentofelectricvehiclesishigh-level.WemakenoassumptionabouttheabilityofEVstostoreenergyorassistwithgriddispatch.
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reaching55percentin2030,whichwehaveappliedastheRPStrajectoryintheReferencecase.AsseeninFigure12,the100percentRPStrajectoryrepresentsasignificantdeparturefromthecurrenttarget.
LosAngelesalreadyhas180MWofinstalledlocalsolar,makingitthecitywiththemostinstalledsolarcapacityinthecountry,andithasplanstobuildevenmore.25Thecity’sinauguralsustainabilityplanfrom2015-2016posesagoaltoachieve900to1,500MWoflocalsolarinLosAngelesby2025.
Figure12.ModeledRPSrequirementsintheLADWPregion
Note:The“PolicycaseRPS”trajectoryisappliedinboththeUtilityScalecaseandtheDistributedcase.
Storageprocurementtargets
LADWPcurrentlyplanstoprocure155MWofenergystorageby2021.26InlinewithCalifornia’soverallstoragemandate,andrecognizingthedecliningcostsofstorageasaresource,LADWPplanstoprocurenearly130MWatthegenerationandtransmissionlevels,25MWatthedistributionlevel,andanadditional2MWatthecustomerlevelby2021.Thisisinadditiontotheover20MWofstoragealreadyoperatingonitsgrid.
25“LASustainableCitypLAn”,availableat
https://www.lamayor.org/sites/g/files/wph446/f/landing_pages/files/pLAn%20first%20annual%20report%202015-2016_0.pdf
26https://s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/ladwp-jtti/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2017/08/16111845/Energy-Storage-Presentation-August-15-2017.pdf
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Resourceretirements
LADWPhasannouncedthatitwillceasetopurchaseelectricityfromthecoal-firedIntermountainPowerProjectin2025.Withtheendofthatcommitmentalsocomestheendofcoal-firedgenerationanywherewithintheLADWPsystem,leavingnaturalgasandlandfillgasunitsastheonlysourcesofGHGemissionsontheLADWPgrid.IntheReferencecase,theseresourcesremainonlineuntiltheendoftheirusefullifeoruntilanalreadyannouncedretirementdatewithinthestudyperiod.InthePolicycases,however,allofthesecarbonemittingresourcesareretiredby2030.
Demandresponse
Akeyelementofafuturegridthatintegrateshighlevelsofrenewablegenerationwillbetheabilitytoshift,delay,oraltogetherreduceload.Unliketheoutputfromconventionalfossilfuel-firedresources,renewablegenerationcannotbescheduled.Asaresult,itisimportanttobeabletonotonlystorerenewablegenerationthatoccursattimesoflowdemandinordertouseitduringtimesofhighdemand,butalsotobeabletoadjustdemandsothatitoccursmoreinlinewithwhenrenewableresourcesaregenerating.Demandresponseprogramsattheresidential,commercial,andindustriallevelsareanidealwaytoachievejustthatgoal.Infact,LADWPalreadyprovidesademandresponseprogramavailabletocommercial,industrial,andinstitutionalcustomers.27
In2015,theDRPilotProgramcurtailednearly98MWh.Whileasignificantstepintherightdirection,these98MWhrepresentonlyhalfapercentofoverallannualgenerationinLADWP.Astheregionmovestowards100percentrenewablesinallhours,however,thisnumberwillnecessarilyincreasesubstantially.
2.3. Whatcountsasrenewablegeneration?
Although“cleanenergy”and“renewableenergy”areoftenusedinterchangeably,thereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwotypesofresources.Cleanenergyisoftenconsideredtoincludeanytypeofresourcewithcarbon-freegeneration.Notably,thisdefinitionmayincludenuclearresources.28Renewableresources,ontheotherhand,havearegeneratingsourceofenergy.Forinstance,windresourcesarerenewablebecausewindregeneratesandcannotbedepleted.Thesamecanbesaidforsolarpoweredresources.Onthecontrary,biomass-typeresourcesrelyuponthecombustionofbiofuelssuchaswood,algae,methane,andotherbiologically-createdsubstances.Whilethefuelsourcesforbiomassandlandfillgasregenerate,theydonotnecessarilydosoonatimelineshortenoughtobeconsideredrenewable.
27Formoredetails,seehttps://www.ladwp.com/ladwp/faces/ladwp/commercial/c-savemoney/c-sm-rebatesandprograms/c-
sm-rp-demandresponse28Nevertheless,nuclearunitsrequirelargeamountsofconcrete–alargesourceofcarbonemissions–duringconstruction,
leadingsomeobserverstosuggestthatnuclearunitsarenotcarbon-freeafterall.
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Oftenwhenbiofuelsareconsideredrenewable,itisbecauseoftwokeyunderlyingassumptions:(1)theenergyproducediscarbonneutraland(2)thefuelsourcesburnedforelectricgenerationwillregrowandare,thus,renewableresources.However,thisisoftennotthecaseinpractice.A2010reportintheJournalofForestryexpressedconcernatthesustainabilityofcurrentpracticesassociatedwithharvestingthefuelsourcesusedforbiofuelcombustion,callingintoquestiontherenewablenatureofwoodfuelsusedforelectricitygeneration.29In2012,Synapsepublishedareportoutliningthelifecyclecarbonfootprintofelectricityproductionfrombiofuels,pointingoutthatwoodybiomassisfarfromcarbonneutralanditsemissionsshouldbeaccountedforinGHGinventorying.30
Inthisstudy,weassumethatwind,solar,hydro,andgeothermalresourcesarenon-emittingrenewables.Thisalsoincludesstorageresourcespoweredbytheseresourcetypes.Importantly,weexcludelandfillgas,biomass,andbiogasresources.IfLADWPisseriousaboutachievingdeepemissionreductionsinthetimeframenecessarytoavoidtheworstimpactsofcatastrophicclimatechange,thenitwillneedtophaseouttheuseofthesenonrenewable,emittingresources.
Additionally,inthisstudy,weassumethattheentiretyofcompliancewiththe100percentRPSoccurseitherwithresourceslocatedwithinLosAngelesCounty,orthroughthepurchaseofbundledRenewableEnergyCredits(RECs),whichrequiresthattherenewableenergybedelivereddirectlytoLADWP.WhilesomestatesallowforRPScompliancethroughthepurchaseofunbundledRECs—i.e.,asacreditforinvestinginrenewableenergy,withoutactuallyneedingtodelivertherenewableenergytocustomersinthatstateorutilityserviceterritory—weonlyallowbundledRECstobeusedforcomplianceinourmodeling.IfLADWPintendstomeeteveryhourofdemandwithrenewablegeneration,itmustfocusondeliveringrenewableenergydirectlytoLADWPcustomersandnotonachievingcompliancethroughtokeninvestmentsinnon-deliverablerenewableslocatedelsewhere.
2.4. Differenceinpolicycaseinputs
TheUtilityScaleandDistributedcasesresultindifferentlevelsofinstalledcapacityattheutilityanddistributedscales,aswellasdifferentlevelsofstoragecapacity.Afewkeydifferencesininputassumptionsdrivethoseoutputs.TheDistributedcaserequiresthemodeltobuildahigherlevelofrooftopsolarthanintheUtilityScalecase,inlinewithagoalofplacingsolaronthree-quartersofallrooftops.Additionally,intheDistributedcase,weadjustedtheeffectiveloadcarryingcapabilityofdistributedsolar—i.e.,theabilityoftheresourcetocontributetopeakdemandforsystemplanningpurposes—to50percent.Thesetwoadjustedinputs,takeninlinewiththefactthatutilityscalesolaroperatesatahigherannualcapacityfactorthandistributed,leadtothedifferencesinstorage:theDistributedcaserequiresmorestoragecapacitytofullytakeadvantageofthedistributedresources.
29Janowiak,M.andC.Webster.2010.“PromotingEcologicalSustainabilityinWoodyBiomassHarvesting.”JournalofForestry.
January/February2010.Availableathttp://cemendocino.ucanr.edu/files/131364.pdf30Fisher,J.,S.Jackson,andB.Biewald.2012.“TheCarbonFootprintofElectricityfromBiomass.”SynapseEnergyEconomics.
Availableathttp://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/SynapseReport.2012-06.0.Biomass-CO2-Report.11-056.pdf
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3. FINDINGS
ThefollowingsectiondetailsinitialresultsfromSynapse’smodelingofabusiness-as-usualReferencecaseandtwodistinct100percentrenewablefuturesintheLADWPPolicyCases.ThekeyoutputsoftheEnCompassmodelpresentedwithinareLADWP-specificcapacity,generation,emissions.Costsbyresourcetypearerelativetopresentoperations.
3.1. Capacity
InLADWP,thelargestdifferencebetweentheReferencecaseandthePolicycasesisinthedisplacementofexistingnaturalgascapacityandthegrowthofstorage.IntheReferencecase,renewablecapacitymorethandoublesby2030ascomparedtotodaybyadding4gigawatts(GW)ofsolarcapacityandover500MWofwind(seeFigure13).IntheUtilityScalecase,energyefficiencyandanincreaseinstoragemeansthatLADWPbuildsasimilaramountofsolarandwindandnearly2GWofstoragecapacity.TheDistributedcase,ontheotherhand,builds16percentmorecapacitythantheReferencecase,mostlyintheformofsolar(4.3GWofdistributedsolaralone,and5.7GWtotal)andstoragecapacity(2.7GW).ThisincreasedlevelofbothdistributedsolarandstoragecapacityintheDistributedcaseascomparedtotheotherscenariosislargelyduetothefactthatdistributedsolarhasalowercapacityfactorandismoredistributedinnaturethanutilityscalesolar;thus,morestoragecapacityisnecessarytofullytakeadvantageoftheincreaseindistributedsolarcapacity.WhileasmallamountofthewindthatisbuiltinbothscenariosislocatedwithinLosAngelesCounty,LADWPalsocontractswithwindresourcesintheNorthwesttotransmitdirectlyintotheregion.31
31Importantly,theresourcesintheNorthwestarenotconnectedtoLADWPthroughahigh-voltage,directcurrent(HVDC)line.
Rather,theyareelectricallydeliverabletoLADWPduetopre-existingconnectionsbetweenLADWPandtheNorthwest.
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Figure13.LADWP’selectricgeneratingcapacityinselectyearsundereachmodeledscenario
Note:ThisfigureonlypresentsinformationoncapacityforresourceswithintheLAbasinandforthoseresourcesthathaveadirectlinktoLADWP–suchasIntermountainPowerPlant—butnotcontractedresourcesoutsideoftheLADWPterritory.
3.2. Generation
GiventhesimilarlevelsofoverallrenewablecapacityprocuredforLADWPintheReferenceandPolicycases,thekeydifferencebetweentheReferencecaseanda100percentrenewablefutureisintheoperationofLADWP’sgrid(seeFigure14).BothPolicyCasesmustfind6.6TWhofcleangenerationwithwhichtoreplacethegenerationlostfromtheretirementofthePaloVerdenuclearfacilityin2029,aswellasfromtheretirementoftheentirefossilfleet.32AlthoughboththeReferenceandUtilityScalecasedispatchasimilarlevelofsolargenerationinrealtime,theUtilityScalecasestoresover4TWhofsolargenerationtodispatchlaterthroughoutthedayorweek.IntheDistributedcase,thisdifferenceisevenmoreapparent,withLADWPstoring7.7TWhofsolargenerationforfutureuse.BothPolicycasesinvestin2.7TWhofenergyefficiency,reducingtheoverallneedintheregion,whilealsoreceivinganadditional1TWhofenergyreductionsfromdemandresponsethanintheReferencecase.IntheReferencecase,naturalgasgenerationinLADWPdecreasesby50percentoverthestudyhorizon,whileitiscompletelyphasedoutby2030inthePolicycases.
32NotethatthisanalysisdoesnotattempttoquantifythecostimpactsofLADWPwithdrawingfromitscontractwithPalo
Verdeaheadofthe2047expiration.
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Figure14.ElectricgenerationinLADWPinselectyearsundereachmodeledscenario
3.3. 100percentrenewableoperation
Importantly,theresultspresentedinFigure14arerepresentativeofmeetingLADWPloadexclusivelywithrenewableresourcesineveryhouroftheyear.ByconstrainingthemodeltonotallowLADWPtoimportgenerationfromanynon-renewableresources,wewereabletoensurethateveryhourofdemandinLADWPwasmetbyrenewablegeneration.Notably,themajorityofloadismetbysolargeneration,eitherdirectlyatthetimeofgeneration,orafterhavingbeenusedtochargebatteries.Asindicatedbyitsname,theUtilityScalecaseseesthemajorityofgenerationcomefromutilityscalesolar;meanwhile,dailyloadintheDistributedcaseismetmostlybydistributedgeneration.Additionally,demandresponseplaysalargeroleinbalancingloadsinfutureyears,reaching10percentofloadinLADWPintheReferencecase,11percentintheDistributedcase,and12.5percentintheUtilityScalecase.
Theseannualtrendsholdtrueathourlyresolution.IntheReferencecase,LADWPmeetsitspeakAugustdayprimarilywithsolar,fossilgeneration,andimports(seeFigure15).InbothPolicycases,ontheotherhand,allfossilresourceshavebeenretired,whileevenmoresolarandstorageresourceshavebeenbuilt.FortheUtilityScalecase,thismeansthatLADWPstoresutilityscalesolarforuselateronarepresentativepeakday(seeFigure16);fortheDistributedcase,ontheotherhand,regionalneedismetmostlybydistributedsolarresources(seeFigure17.)
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Figure15.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,Referencecase
Figure16.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,UtilityScalecase
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Figure17.2030hourlygeneration,representativepeakday,Distributedcase
Theresultspresenttwokeytakeawaysfor100percentrenewablefutures.First,bothofourPolicycasesresultinsignificantcurtailmentofrenewablesattheendofthestudyperiod,asaresultofnotbuildinganynewtransmissionintoandaroundLADWP.Togetto100percentrenewableenergyineveryhourwillrequireamixofstoragecapacity,curtailmentofrenewablesandnewtransmission;ourscenarioselectedamixthatisheavieroncurtailmentandstoragethantransmission,butthatisnottheonlypossiblemixtoreach100percentrenewables.Second,theresourcebuild-outinthesecasesrepresentonlytwoofmanypotentialgenerationandcapacitymixesthatcanreach100percentrenewables.Whileweoptimizedourmodelingbaseduponcurrentcosttrendsforvariousrenewabletechnologies,itispossiblethatinfutureyearsthecostsofrenewableandstoragetechnologiesmaychange,makingadifferent100percentrenewablescenariomorecost-effectiveandfeasiblethanthosepresentedhere.
3.4. Emissions
ThreebillsinCaliforniacombinetoaimtoreducestatewideGHGemissionsby40percentbelow1990levelsby2030.33Asdescribedabove,LosAngeleshasanevenmorestringentGHGemissionreductiontargetthanCalifornia,aimingfor35percentbelow1990levelsby2030.Asof2015,LADWP’s14.4millionmetrictonsofCO2emissionswerealready19percentbelow1990levels.TheReferencecaseseeselectricsectoremissionsdecreasingevenfurther,to1.9millionmetrictonsin2030,areductionof
33AB32,SB32andAB197.See2016LADWPIRP,p.ES-4.
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over80percentfrom2015emissions.Meanwhile,bothPolicycasesreduceemissionsentirelyby2030(seeFigure18).
Figure18.LADWPelectric-sectorCO2emissionsfrom2017to2030
3.5. Systemcosts
Figure19illustratestheprojecteddifferenceinannualsystemcoststoLADWPfrom2020through2030inboththeReferencecaseandUtilityScalecase.Figure20showsthedifferenceincostsbetweentheReferencecaseandDistributedcase.Thesecostsareaproductoftotalregion-widegenerationrequirementsandthebalancingarea’sload-weightedenergyprice.BothfiguresalsodisplaythecumulativeNPVofthedifferencebetweenscenariosovertime.Between2017and2030,thecostoftheReferencecaseisatanNPVof$49billionata5percentdiscountrate.Meanwhile,theUtilityScalecaseasmodeledwouldcost$56billion,andtheDistributedcasewouldcost$47billioninNPVterms.Assuch,theUtilityScalecaseresultsinacumulativeNPVincreaseof$7billion(14percent)relativetothe
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Referencecase,whiletheDistributedcaseresultsina$2billiondecrease(4percent),relativetotheReferencecase.34
TheoverallincreaseinsystemcostintheUtilityScalecase(relativetotheReferencecase)involvesthecostsassociatedwithbuildingadditionalstorageandgeothermalcapacity,aswellaswithincreasinginvestmentsinenergyefficiencyanddemandresponse.AlthoughtheDistributedcasebuildsevenmoresolarandstoragecapacitythantheUtilityScalecase,overallsystemcostsareoffsetbythefactthatthemajorityofthesolarcapacityprocuredoccursbehindthemeter.Importantly,thecustomercostsassociatedwithprocuringdistributedgenerationarenotincludedinthetotalsystemcostspresentedinthisreport.ThetotalsystemcostisrepresentativeofthecoststhatwillbepassedthroughtoallconsumersbyLADWP;however,costsforindividualconsumersmaybehigherdependingupontheirprocurementofdistributedsolartechnologies.Ontheotherhand,totalsystemcostsmaybemitigatedevenfurtherinafuturethatincorporatesagreaternumberofelectricvehiclesorifotherstorage-likeresourcesbecomeavailableatareasonablecost.
Figure19.AnnualelectricsystemexpenditureUtilityScalecasesavingsinLADWP,relativetoReferencecase
34ThisanalysiswasconductedbeforePresidentDonaldTrumpapprovedtheOfficeoftheU.S.TradeRepresentative’s
recommendationsonsolartariffs.However,webelievethisdecisionwillhavelittleoverallimpactonourfindings.First,thefullimpactsofthesetariffsarenotyetknown—itispossiblethatsomecompaniesorcountrieswillbeabletoobtainexemptionsfromthetariffs,lesseningtheiroverallimpactonmodulecosts.Second,thetariffsareonlyineffectfortheyears2019through2022.Whiletheyarehighatthebeginning(30percent),theydeclineovertime.Becausethisanalysiswasconductedthrough2030,andbecausethereisrelativelylittledifferencebetweenthescenariosintheearlyyears,thetariffswouldlikelyonlyhaveamoderateimpactinafewearlyyearsofthestudy.
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Figure20.AnnualelectricsystemexpenditureDistributedcasesavingsinLADWP,relativetoReferencecase
ThecostsinthetwoPolicycasesrampuptowardtheendofthestudytimeframeasLADWPfinalizesitspushto100percentrenewablegenerationineachhour.WhiletheUtilityScalecaseismoreexpensiveonanetpresentvaluethantheReferencecase,andwhiletheDistributedcaseislessexpensivefromatotalsystemcostperspective,therearesomecostbenefitsoftransitioningtoa100percentrenewablegrid.Forinstance,duringmosthoursoftheyear,theproductioncostinLADWPinthePolicycasesislowerthanduringthosesamehoursintheReferencecase.Asaresultofrunningonresourceswithmarginal,ifany,variablecosts,theDistributedcaseseesareductioninoverallproductioncosts.Infact,theoverallNPVofthedifferencebetweenthetwoscenariosisnearlyeven,withtheDistributedcaseslightlylessexpensivethantheReferencecaseoverthestudyperiod.
3.6. KeydifferencesbetweenPolicycases
OurtwoPolicycasesdifferintheirtreatmentofsolar.BothPolicycasesmodelfutureswithlargeamountsofsolargeneration.However,theUtilityScalecasefocusesonmeetingloadrequirementswithutilityscalesolarandadditionalgeothermalgeneration,whiletheDistributedcasefocusesonmeetingLADWP’sneedswithbehindthemeter,distributedgeneration.TheDistributedcasebuildsnearly6GWofsolarcapacity,withover4GWofdistributedsolarcapacity.TheUtilityScalecaseonlybuilds3.6GWofsolarcapacity,withthemajority—2.2GW—asutilityscale.
Importantly,theDistributedcaseisrepresentativeofafutureinwhichLADWPtakesadifferentapproachtosystemplanning.Thelevelofdistributedgenerationbuiltisonlypossibleifsystemplannersincreasethecapacitycreditreceivedbybehindthemetergenerationandrecognizethebenefitsassociatedwithlinkingdistributedgenerationandstoragefromagrid-operationsperspective.This
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scenarioincorporatesalevelofdistributedsolarcapacitythatisconsistentwithatargetofcoveringthree-quartersofrooftopsintheLADWPserviceterritory.
The100percentrenewablescenariosdiscussedinthisreportrepresentonlytwopossibilitiesforLADWPtomoveawayentirelyfromtraditionalgeneratingresources.AllpotentialcleanenergyfuturesforLosAngelesinvolvedistinctopportunitiesandtradeoffs.Withinthisanalysis,forinstance,thecostsassociatedwithourutilityscalesolarcaseareborneoutdifferentlythanthecostsasaresultofthedistributedsolarcase.Withgreaterlevelsofutilityscalesolar,theoverallsystemcostsincrease,representativeofutilitiesbuildingandintegratingnew,largescalecapacity.Onthecontrary,higherlevelsofdistributedgenerationresultinlowersystemcosts,astheneedforcapacityanddistributionsystemupgradesareavoided,buthighercoststoindividualconsumers(notcalculatedinthisanalysis)whotakeontheresponsibilitytoinvestintheirownrenewablegenerationandstorage.
CONCLUSIONS
A100percentrenewablefutureispossible.WithpolicymakersinCaliforniaandtheLADWPconsideringlegislationtomandatethisambitioustrajectory,itistimeforsystemoperatorstoactivelybegintoanalyze100percentrenewablefutures.InthisanalysisoftwopotentialLADWPfutures,wefindthatitis,infact,possibleforLADWPtouseexclusivelyrenewableresourcestopoweritssystemineveryhouroftheyear.What’smore,achievingveryhighlevelsofrenewableintegrationinLADWPdoesnotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtheReferencecasewithinthefirstseveralyearsofthestudy,allowingLADWPabrief,butnecessary,windowtoplanhowtobestoptimizeafuture100percentrenewablesystem.
Infact,theUtilityScalecasedoesnotrequiresubstantiallymorerenewablesthantheReferencecase.Instead,itrequiressmarteroperationofthesystembyleveragingstorage,demandresponse,andenergyefficiency.Likemanyother100percentrenewablestudies,thisisanillustrativestudy—itdemonstratestheabilityofthegridtoprovidegenerationtomeetdemandassumingafuturewithhighrelianceonnon-dispatchablegeneration.Thisstudyisnotmeanttobeadeep-diveintoallofthetechnicaloperationsofthegridunderthistypeofresourcemix.WhilethePolicyCasesdonotrequireasubstantialdeparturefromtherenewablecapacitybuildsoftheReferencecase,itdoesrequireanewapproachtosystemplanningandoperationfromLADWP.Fromasystemcostperspective,a100percentrenewablefutureforLADWPmaybepossibleatnoincrementalcosttotheReferencecase.
WeintendforthisanalysistosupportongoingplanningprocessesduringwhichanalysesbyLADWPandstakeholderscaninformandbuildoffeachother.ThisstudyservesasabenchmarkincomparingpotentialhighrenewablesfuturesforLosAngelesandacknowledgesthattherewillbetradeoffsamongstalloftheoptionsathand.Importantly,the100percentrenewablescenariosdiscussedinthisreportrepresentonlytwopossibilitiesforLADWPtomoveawayentirelyfromtraditionalgeneratingresources.
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Withinthisanalysis,forinstance,thecostsassociatedwithascenariothatleansheavilyonutility-scalesolarareborneoutdifferentlythanthecostsresultingfromdistributedsolarscenario.Withgreaterlevelsofutilityscalesolar,theoverallsystemcostsincrease,representativeofutilitiesbuildingandintegratingnew,largescalecapacity.Onthecontrary,higherlevelsofdistributedgenerationresultinlowersystemcosts,astheneedforcapacityanddistributionsystemupgradesareavoided,buthighercoststoindividualconsumers,representativeoftheresponsibilitytoprocurecapacityshiftingfromtheutilitytothecustomer.NeitherofthePolicycasesincorporatesthecostsassociatedwithavoidingadversehealthimpactsandotherexternalitiesassociatedwithfossilfuelgeneration;thePolicycasesmayinfactbeevenmoreeconomicalincomparisontotheReferencecasethanthisstudyshows.
The100percentrenewablescenariosanalyzedinthisstudyarerepresentativeofonlytwoofthemanypotentialpathstowardsa100percentrenewablefuture.Anypathtakenwillrequireexplicitdecisionstobemadebypolicymakers,gridregulators,andutilitiesalike.Forinstance,otherpotentialscenariosmayleanmoreheavilyonstorageresources,allowforcompliancethroughout-of-regionpurchasesofcleangeneration,orrelyupononnascenttechnology,suchasfloatingoffshorewindturbines.Regardlessofthepathtaken,however,a100percentrenewablefutureispossible,thatitcanpotentiallybeachievedatnoincrementalcost,andLosAngelesneedstogetstartedrightawaytomeetitsgoal
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APPENDIXA.THEENCOMPASSMODEL
Inthisanalysis,SynapseutilizedEnCompass(Version2.7),astate-of-the-artcapacityexpansionandproductioncostmodelproducedbyAnchorPowerSolutions.
EnCompassisasingle,fullyintegratedpowersystemplatformthatprovidesanenterprisesolutionforutility-scalegenerationplanningandoperationsanalysis.EnCompassisanoptimizationmodelthatcoversallfacetsofpowersystemplanning,including:
• Short-termschedulingincludingdetailedunitcommitmentandeconomicdispatch
• Mid-termenergybudgetinganalysisincludingmaintenanceschedulingandriskanalysis
• Long-termintegratedresourceplanningincludingcapitalprojectoptimizationandenvironmentalcompliance
• Marketpriceforecastingforenergy,ancillaryservices,capacity,andenvironmentalprograms
EnCompassprovidesunit-specific,detailedforecastsofthecomposition,operations,andcostsoftheregionalgenerationfleetgiventheassumptionsdescribedinAppendixB.SynapsepopulatedthemodelwithaWesternInterconnect-specificdataset,basedonCAISO’sTransmissionExpansionPlanningPolicyCommitteedataset,andmadeadjustmentstoimproveresolutionwithintheDWPregion.
SynapseusedEnCompasstooptimizethegenerationmixinDWPandCaliforniaandtoestimatethecostsofachangingenergysystemovertime.Becausethisstudyfocusesonannualgeneration,costs,andemissions,themodelwasrunin“partial”optimizationmodewithtypicalpeak/off-peakdaytemporalresolution.Theseparametersenabledfasterprocessingtimeattheexpenseofsomedetailattheunitoperationlevel.
MoreinformationonEnCompassisavailableatwww.anchor-power.com.
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APPENDIXB.MODELINGINPUTASSUMPTIONS
ModelingBackground
Synapse’sanalysiscomparedaReferencecasetotwoPolicycasesbymodelingtwomainscenarios:
• Referencecase:Thisisabusiness-as-usualfutureinwhichnochangesaremadetocurrentpoliciesinCaliforniaoratthefederallevel.Inthisfuture,weassumerenewableandstoragetechnologycostscontinuetodecreaseatabaselinerateandthatutilitiesinCaliforniameettheirrequirementsforrenewableprocurementundertheRPSandGHGreductionsrequiredbyAB32andthe2016SB32.Weassumeastatewideelectricsector2030emissionsgoalof62thousandmetrictons(MMT),consistentwiththeupperboundoftheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoardScopingPlan.35
• Policycases:ThePolicycasesdifferfromtheReferencecaseinonekeyway:theyestablisharequirementforLADWPtomeet100percentofitselectricitysalesthroughrenewables(e.g.,wind,solar,andstorage)by2030.Inaddition,weexploretheuseofbatterystorage,energyefficiency,anddemandresponseresourcestohelpachievethisenergytransformation.
ModelingInputs
Electricitydemand
Themaincomponentofasalesforecastistheeconometricsalescomponent.Thisistheforecastforannualenergyconsumption,absentanyincrementalenergyefficiency.Itistypicallylinkedtofactorslikegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)growth,populationgrowth,andweather.InEnCompass(andinallotherelectricitydispatchmodels),annualsalesandpeakdemandaretreatedasaconstraint.Forthisanalysis,weassumedthateconometricelectricsalesforLADWPandtherestofCaliforniafollowtheprojectiondescribedintheFebruary2017editionoftheCaliforniaEnergyDemandUpdate(CEDU).36
Energyefficiency
Aftercalculatingthemainannualsalesforecast,itisnecessarytodevelopaprojectionforenergyefficiency.Becausesalesaretreatedasaconstraintbythemodel,theenergyefficiencyforecastmustbe
35“The2017ClimateChangeScopingPlanUpdate,”January20,2017,pp.42-43.Available
athttps://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/2030sp_pp_final.pdf36ReferredtoastheIEPR2016Update.Availableathttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-
05/TN215745_20170202T125433_FINAL_California_Energy_Demand_Updated_Forecast_20172027.pdf
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hard-coded:wecannotgivethemodelacostforenergyefficiencyandallowittochoosetobuildit,likeitcanwithrenewablesorothertypesofresources.
Californiaisamongtheleadingstatesintermsofenergyefficiency:accordingtothe2016AmericanCouncilforanEnergy-EfficiencyEconomy(ACEEE)StateEnergyEfficiencyScorecard,ittiedforfirstalongwithMassachusetts.In2015,Californiaachievedannualincrementalsavingsof2percentperyear,onparwithVermont,buttrailingthesavingsachievedbyRhodeIslandandMassachusetts(whichreached3percentperyear).
Forthisanalysis,weassumetwoseparateenergyefficiencyforecasts:
1. OurBasecaseforecastisbasedontheenergyefficiencyforecastdescribedintheCEDU2017“MidDemandBaselineCase”(seeFigure21).Inthisforecast,LADWPandtherestofCaliforniaachievereasonablyhighlevelsofenergyefficiencyinthenear-term(e.g.,1.75to2.0percent),butfeaturelowerlevelsofsavings(e.g.,0.30percent)inlateryears.WeusethisenergyefficiencyforecastintheReferencecase.
2. OurHighEEcaseforecastassumesthatLADWPincreasesitsannualincrementallevelofenergyefficiencysavingsbeginningin2019by0.2percentperyear,untilalevelof3.0percentisreachedin2024.Itthensustainsthislevelofenergyefficiencythroughouttherestofthestudy.WeassumethatnochangesaremadetoenergyefficiencylevelsintherestofCalifornia.
Figure21.Forecasteddemandforelectricity,inclusiveofenergyefficiencyandelectricvehicles
Energyefficiencycosts
Recentstudiesonthecostofenergyefficiencyindicatethatenergysavingscanbeprocuredataverylowcostofsavedenergy.Whilecostsmayvarybasedongeography,sector(e.g.,residentialversus
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industrial),thesizeoftheprogram,orthematurityoftheprogram,recentanalysesbySynapse,theACEEE,andtheLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory(LBNL)allindicatelevelizedcostsforutilitiesbelow$0.04perkWh.37Thisanalysisusesthe2017workpublishedbyLBNLinEnergyPolicy,whichconcludesthatthelevelizedcostofsavedenergyforutilitiesis2.3centsperkilowatthour(kWh).38
Demand-sidemanagement
Inadditiontopassiveenergyefficiencymeasures,wealsospecifyatrajectoryforactivedemand-sidemanagementmeasures.Customerscanbeincentivizedtoreduceloadinthehoursatwhichthesystemismostconstrained,vialowerratesorrebates.Suchresourcesaretypicallyonlycalleduponforasmallnumberofhoursperyear.OurmodeledscenariosfollowthedemandresponseassumptionsintheLADWP2016IRP,whichgrowsactivedemandresponseresourcesfrom55MWtodayto200MWin2020and506MWin2026.39
Electrification
Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,weassumeabaselineamountofincreasedelectrificationinallscenarios.The2016IEPRassumesthatby2025,LADWPwillfeatureabout600GWhofincreasedsalesfromelectricvehicles,andCaliforniaasawholefeatures2,100GWhofelectricvehicle-relatedsales.40ForLADWP,thisrepresentsanincreaseinsalesbyabout3percentin2025.
Naturalgaspriceforecast
OuranalysisreliesuponthedeliveredfuelpricefortheelectricpowersectorforecastsfromtheEnergyInformationAdministration’s(EIA)AnnualEnergyOutlook2017(seeFigure22).PricesatregionalhubsintheWestlargelyalltrackeachother,risingsteadilyovertimeafterabriefdropinthelasttwoyears.
37Moreinformationavailableathttp://www.synapse-energy.com/sites/default/files/COSE-EIA-861-Database-66-017.pdf.38Hoffman,I.,etal.2017.“EstimatingthecostofsavingelectricitythroughU.S.utilitycustomer-fundedenergyefficiency
programs.”EnergyPolicy.PublishedJanuary24,2017.39LADWP2016IRPpp.88.40Seehttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-
05/TN215504_20170123T111108_FINAL_CEDU2016_LADWP_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsandhttp://docketpublic.energy.ca.gov/PublicDocuments/16-IEPR-05/TN215506_20170123T111112_FINAL_CEDU2016_STATEWIDE_Mid_Demand_Case.xlsformoreinformation
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Figure22.AEO2017naturalgaspriceforecastbyregion,Nominal$/MMBtu
Renewableresourcepotentialsandcosts
EvenintheReferencecase,CaliforniaandtheLADWPregionwillseesignificantincreasesinrenewablecapacityduringthestudyperiod.Currently,California’sRPSrequiresCaliforniautilities(includingLADWP)toprocure50percentoftheirelectricsalesfromrenewablesby2030.LADWPproposestoexceedthisstandardintheir2016IRP,reaching55percentin2030(seeFigure23).Undercurrentlawsandregulations,solarthermal,solarphotovoltaic,wind,biomass,geothermal,smallhydro,landfillgas,andothermiscellaneousresourcesareeligibletosellRECs,whichcanberetiredtomeetRPScompliance.UnderthecurrentRPSpolicy,renewablefacilitiesthatareeitherphysicallylocatedinCaliforniaorareabletosellelectricitydirectlytoCaliforniaareeligibletosellRECstoCaliforniautilities.Notably,our100percentrenewablescenariosdonotrelyuponpurchasingunbundledRECsfromotherregions.
UndertheEnCompassmodelingconstruct,themodelselectsthemostcost-effectiveresourcestobuildandmeettheRPSconstraint,basedonassumptionsweuseforresourcepotentialandresourcecosts.
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Figure23.ModeledRPSrequirementsintheLADWPregion
Note:The“PolicycaseRPS”trajectoryisappliedinboththeUtilityScalecaseandtheDistributedcase.
InthePolicycases,weassumethataseparateadditionalRPSpolicyisestablishedintheLADWPloadregion.Underthisnewpolicy,LADWPisrequiredtomeet100percentofitselectricitydemandthroughrenewablesby2030.Otherimportantdistinctionsinclude:
• Temporalrequirement:ThisanalysisrequiresLADWPtoprocureelectricityfromrenewablesatalltimesoftheday,everyday.LADWPisrestrictedfrompurchasingelectricityfromnaturalgasgenerators(forexample)andprocuringenergy“offsets”inotherhours.
• Geographiceligibility:Inouranalysis,weassumethatrenewableresourceslocatedintheLADWPregion,elsewhereinCalifornia,ordirectlyconnectedtoCaliforniaareeligiblefortheLADWPRPS.
• Resourceeligibility:ThisanalysisismeanttoassessPolicycasesinwhichtheLADWPloadregion’selectricsectorisnon-emitting.Assuch,weonlyconsidernon-emitting,lowenvironmentalimpact,fully-commercialresourcesasbeingeligibleforcompliance.Inpractice,thisrestrictstheLADWPRPS-eligibleresourcesfornewlybuiltcapacityinLosAngelestosolarandwind.BiogasandbiomassresourcesarespecificallyprohibitedfrombeingeligibleforcomplianceintheLADWPRPS.
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Renewableandstoragepotential
Forthisanalysis,werelyonrenewableresourcepotentialsasdescribedintheDecember2016versionoftheRESOLVEmodel.41AccordingtoRESOLVE,thereareabout102GWofincrementalrenewablesavailableinLosAngelesCountyand8,700GWCalifornia-wide.Thisisincomparisontothe20GWcurrentlyinstalledstatewide.NotethatCaliforniacurrentlyhasabout80GWofinstalledcapacityfromalltypesofresource,includingnuclear,coal,andnaturalgas.
Table1.Existinginstalledrenewablecapacityandpotentialincrementalrenewablecapacity(GW) 2015InstalledCapacity,
CaliforniaIncrementalresourcepotential,California
Incrementalresourcepotential,LACounty
Utility-scalePV 6 8,406 102Utility-scalesolarthermal 1 133 5DistributedPV 4 37 11Wind 5 157 0Geothermal 3 5 0Smallhydro 1 7 0
Today,LADWPhas1,275MWofpumpedhydrostorageattheCastaicfacility,plusabout12MWofsmallscalethermalandbatterystorage.InbothourReferencecaseandPolicycases,weinclude404MWofbatterystorageby2025,asplannedinthe2016IRP.42
Renewableandstoragecosts
WerelyonRESOLVEforprojectingcostsofrenewablesthroughthestudyperiod.43AccordingtotheRESOLVEmodelassumptions,in2018utility-scalesolarisestimatedtocost$46perMWh,distributedsolarisestimatedtocost$104/MWh,andwindisestimatedtocost$59perMWh.Notethatthesecostsareinclusiveofcurrentproductiontaxcreditsandinvestmenttaxcredits,whicharescheduledtodeclineoverthenextseveralyears.
StoragecostsarealsomodeledbasedonRESOLVEinputs,thelatestversionofwhichmodelsLi-ionbatterycapacityat$248perkWin2018,decliningto$166perkWby2030.44Figure24andFigure25
41TheRESOLVEmodelisaspreadsheetbasedcapacityexpansionmodelcurrentlybeingusedintheCaliforniaStateIntegrated
ResourcePlanprocess.RESOLVEisamoresimplifiedtoolthantheEnCompassmodelbutitusesanumberofsimilarinputs.Formoreinformation,seetheRESOLVEInputsandAssumptionsDocumentandScenarioToolathttp://www.cpuc.ca.gov/irp_proposal/
422016IRPpp.13143Formoreinformation,seeTable20at
http://www.cpuc.ca.gov/uploadedFiles/CPUCWebsite/Content/UtilitiesIndustries/Energy/EnergyPrograms/ElectPowerProcurementGeneration/LTPP/2017/RESOLVE_CPUC_IRP_Inputs_Assumptions_2017-05-15.pdf
44TheRESOLVEinputsarederivedfromLazard’sLevelizedCostofStorage2.0(2016),availableat:https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-storage-analysis-20/
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comparethecostofapeakerinLazard’sLevelizedCostofEnergy11.0tothestoragecostassumptionsfromLazard’sLevelizedCostofStorage2.0.
Figure24.Levelizedcostofenergyofconventionalresources,Lazardversion11.0
Figure25.Levelizedcostofstorageresources,Lazardversion2.0
Unitadditions
AccordingtotheEIA’sForm860dataset,thereare1,650MWofknownunitadditionsthatarecurrentlyunderconstructionandexpectedtobeonlinebetween2017and2019(seeTable2).45
45Moreinformationavailableathttps://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/.
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Table2.Knownunitadditions(GW)
2017 2018 2019LosAngeles 79 - - Batteries 2 - -
OnshoreWindTurbine 2 - -
OtherWasteBiomass 33 - -
SolarPhotovoltaic 42 - -
California 837 674 134 Batteries 42 - 2 ConventionalHydroelectric 7 - - LandfillGas 5 - - NaturalGasFiredCombinedCycle - 672 - NaturalGasFiredCombustionTurbine 7 - - OnshoreWindTurbine 187 - 131 OtherWasteBiomass 37 2 - SolarPhotovoltaic 553 - -
Unitretirements
ThesameEIAdatasetshowsusthatbetween2017and2020,over5,500MWhasbeenannouncedtoberetiredinCalifornia(seeTable3).Nearlyalloftheseretirementsareoldnaturalgas-firedsteamturbineslocatedinLosAngelesCounty.ThisincludestheScattergood1and2repoweringprojects.InaJune6BoardofWaterandPowerCommissionerspresentation,LADWPnotedthatallrepoweringprojects,includingthese,werebeingreassessed.46Asthatassessmentwillnotbecompletedbeforethecompletionofthisstudy,ourplanwouldbetoincludetheScattergood,Haynes,andHarborrepoweringsasspecifiedintheLADWP2016IRPinourReferencecase.ThislistalsoincludesindependentpowerproducerslocatedinLosAngelesCounty—specificallytheAESAlamitosandAESRedondoBeachgasplants.InourPolicycases,wedonotincludetherepoweringofnaturalgasunits;insteadretiringtheseunitsby2030.
46Moreinformationavailableathttp://www.scpr.org/news/2017/06/06/72616/ladwp-puts-a-hold-on-new-power-plants-to-
consider/
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Table3.Knownunitretirements(GW)
2017 2018 2019 2020
LosAngeles - - 1,302 2,264 NaturalGasSteamTurbine - - 1,302 2,263 OtherWasteBiomass - - - 1California 1,074 17 1,533 2,926 ConventionalHydroelectric 0 0 4 0 NaturalGasFiredCombustionTurbine 90 0 0 0 NaturalGasInternalCombustionEngine 0 0 8 8 NaturalGasSteamTurbine 982 0 1,520 2,917 OnshoreWindTurbine 0 17 0 0 OtherWasteBiomass 3 0 0 1
Additionalgasretirements
Inlinewitha100percentrenewablefuture,LADWPwillbeforcedtoretireallexistingnaturalgasandlandfillgasunitsoperatingintheirserviceterritory.Ratherthanretirethemallin2030,however,weexogenouslyforcetheirretirementsearlierinthestudyperiod,betterallowingLADWPtoramptowardstheoperationalconstraintsassociatedwitha100percentrenewablefuture.