Clean Energy Innovations for Development:

Daniel KammenChief Technical Specialist for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency

The World BankClass of 1935 Distinguished Professor of Energy, University of California, Berkeley

CTF, Cape Town, South Africa, June 25, 2011

The World BankSustainable Energy Group

FAR

1st IPCC Assessment (1990): unequivocal detection of human impact not likelyfor a decade

TAR

3rd (2001): most of the warming in the last 50 years is likely (>66%) due to human activities

SAR

2nd (1995): balance of evidence suggests discernible human influence

AR

4

4th (2007): most of the warming very likely (> 90%) due human activity

4th (2007): warming will most strongly and quickly impact the global poor

SRREN (2011): 80% clean by 2050 possible, if …

People without access to electricity (millions)

There are 1.4 billion people lacking access to electricity todayBased on current trends, 1.2 billion people will still lack access in 2030

Another 1+ billion have intermittent/unreliable accessInternational Energy Agency,

2010

• 40% energy lending was for RE/EE in FY09—a 24% increase from FY08; 64% in 2010

• Nearly $4.5 billion invested in programs directly dealing with energy access

• New Energy Strategy currently under political review

WORLD BANK GROUP’S ROLE IN ENERGY

Sectoral Distribution (FY2004–09)

World Bank Energy Lending

2010: Portfolio is 65% non-fossil fuel2011: New Energy Strategy (in review)

MedupiRSA

Chief Technical Specialist Portfolio

• Morocco Ouarzazate: world’s largest solar plant; 3 GW, $9 billion

• Bangladesh One million solar households by 2012

• Mexico $1 billion for energy efficiency, rapid transit plans

• East Africa Regional Power Pool w/Feed-in tariffs, climate policies• C. America Regional Power Pool

• Turkey Integration of transmission expansion to wind sites andbuilding efficiency upgrades linked, $1 billion

• Malaysia Coal alternative for Sabah selected• E. Europe Coal alternative dialog

3.1% 3.4% 3.7% 4.2% 4.8%5.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Renewable and Energy Efficiency* Generation as a proportion of global power sector

* Excluding Large Hydro

Installed new renewables generationas a % of overall generation mix

Can renewables become ‘business as usual’ ?

Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010, UNEP/BNEF

6%

10%12% 14%

28%

32%

Additional new renewables generationas % of all power additions

Message: Low carbon technology has become more mainstream, but many barriers remain

Emissions / Population Snapshot (2005)

China: Energy consumption and GDP (1980-2005)

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1980

1981

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Pri

mary

En

erg

y C

on

su

mp

tio

n (

Mb

oe/d

)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

GD

P (

bil

lio

n 2

000 R

MB

)

coal

oil

biomass

natural gas

hydro & nuclear

GDP

10x GDP, 3x Energy Consumption, but still a mixed result on energy intensity

OUTLOOK

World Bank Group

China needs to half its energy intensity and power generation would need to shift dramatically by 2030

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2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030

CO

2e

mis

sio

ns

(G

ton

)

EnergyEfficiency

Low-carbon technology

Coal60%

Oil & gas14%

Nuclear4%

Hydro16%

Renewable6%

Coal, 30%

Oil & Gas, 16%

Nuclear, 8%

Hydro, 23%

Renewable, 23%

ENV Scenario(1,975 GW)

CCP Scenario(2,336 GW)

Beating ‘expert’ forecasts:

the value of learning by doing & getting on with the job

Actual market development

Solar Advertising in Kenyan papers

70 Shillings (Ksh)/dollar: 12,435 Ksh = $170

Performance Comparison by Brand

Jacobson, Duke and Kammen (ES&T & Energy Policy, 2000; EAS & Nation)

Sample Size:

Koncar = 31

New NAPS = 33

Old NAPS = 32

Phoenix = 5

Phoenix Gold = 10

x-Si = 17

Jacobson & Kammen, (2007)

A New ‘Bad Actor’ Enters the Market (2005)

Kon

car

FEE

Ph

oen

ix

FEE

Kon

car

Ph

oen

ix

She

nze

n

From R&D to DeploymentR&D Funding Commercial change Cost reductions

Nemet, G. F. (2006) Energy Policy 34(17): 3218 - 3232.

From R&D to DeploymentR&D Funding Commercial change Cost reductions

50% increase in PV

efficiency occured

immediately after

unprecedented >$1b

global investment in PV

R&D (1978-85)…

Nemet, G. F. (2006) Energy Policy 34(17): 3218 - 3232.

From R&D to DeploymentR&D Funding Commercial change Cost reductions

Nemet, G. F. (2006) Energy Policy 34(17): 3218 - 3232.

…efficiency improvements

account for 30% of the

cost reductions in PV over

the past two decades.

INCREASE IN PLANT

SIZE EVEN LARGE

IMPACT

50% increase in PV

efficiency occured

immediately after

unprecedented >$1b

global investment in PV

R&D (1978-85)…

An important model: the Japanese “Sunshine” Program

Energy Efficiency Training, Orinoco

Christian Casillas (Energy and Resources Group PhD student)

Global Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Curve

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*

*

*

*

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*

*

*

*

*

* ******

Abatement cost€ per tCO2e

Lighting – switch incandescent to LED (residential)

Cropland nutrient management

Tillage and residue mgmt

1st generation biofuels

Clinker substitution by fly ashElectricity from landfill gas

Small hydroReduced slash and burn agriculture conversion

Reduced pastureland conversionGrassland management

Organic soil restoration

Pastureland afforestationNuclear

Degraded forest reforestation Reduced intensive agriculture conversion

Coal CCS new buildIron and steel CCS new build

Motor systems efficiency

Rice management

Cars full hybrid

Gas plant CCS retrofit

Solar PV

Waste recycling

High penetration wind

Low penetration wind

Residential electronicsResidential appliances

Retrofit residential HVAC

Insulation retrofit (commercial)

Power plant biomass co-firing

Geothermal

Coal CCS retrofit

Degraded land restoration

Abatement potentialGtCO2e per year

Solar CSPBuilding efficiency

new build

2nd gen. biofuels

Efficiency improvements other industry

Insulation retrofit (residential)

Plug-in hybrid cars

Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0 (2010): McKinsey & Company

Global Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Curve:Mexico Low-Carbon Study

22JJohnson, et al., Low-carbon study for Mexico (2010): The World Bank

Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Curves:Communities of Orinoco & Marshall Point, Nicaragua

23Casillas and Kammen (2010) “The energy-poverty-climate nexus,” Science, 330, 1182 - 1182

Beating ‘expert’ forecasts:

the value of learning by doing & getting on with the job

Actual market development

Solar Advertising in Kenyan papers

70 Shillings (Ksh)/dollar: 12,435 Ksh = $170

Greenhouse gas and sustainability calculators:

http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu&

http://www.coolcalifornia.org