Click to edit Master title style

Projecting GHG emissions & removals from

Agriculture & LULUCF

New Zealand methods & experiences

Leonard Brown

New Zealand Climate Change Office

Presented at the UNFCCC workshop on projections Bonn Sept 6-8 2004

Click to edit Master title styleInstitutional arrangements

(for inventory & projections)

Agriculture Projections

Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

New Zealand Climate Change Office Projections

MAFNational exotic forest database

Statistics New ZealandAnimal census & survey

AgResearch LtdCH4 Tier 2 methodology

Overseer N20 model

LULUCF Projections

MAF

NZCCONZ Carbon Accounting System

Forest Research LtdGrowth & C sequestration model

Click to edit Master title style• Animal population by species: beef, sheep, dairy,

deer – (Pastoral Supply Response Model)

• Productivity & emissions per animal.

• Forecast of nitrogen fertiliser usage.

Agriculture

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

0 5 10 15 20

Year since 1990

N fe

rtili

ser u

sed

(ton

nes

N)

• Policies & Measures•Environmental N constraints

•Price measures (C)

•Research

$NZ

Prices

Weather

Carrying capacity

Livestock

data

Click to edit Master title styleAgriculture improvements

•General model development - equations

•Changes in input parameters over time, e.g. forage quality

•Sensitivity analysis and scenario building

•Improved estimation of carrying capacity limit

•Improved stock unit estimation by livestock class

Click to edit Master title styleForestryKey drivers

•Area planted in Kyoto forests to date

•Scenarios of future new forest planting

•Carbon accumulation models

•Assumed rotation length

•Deforestation

10000 ha

10% deforestation

20000 ha

5% deforestation

30000 ha

0% deforestation

planting and Kyoto deforestation

scenarios

Click to edit Master title styleForestry improvements

•Modelling - Capability and FlexibilityImprove modelling – scenarios, vary multiple parameters

•Data - New Zealand Carbon Accounting SystemRefine & validate the accuracy of plantings since 1990

Refine and spatialise growth rates of planted forest

Improve deforestation estimate

Improve estimate of carbon in all pools for all forest