Climate change adaptation – a challenged future - CIRCABC · Session VIII : Climate change adaptation – a challenged future by Peter Gammeltoft, Head of Unit, DG ENV.D.2 2nd EUROPEAN

Session VIII : Climate change adaptation – a challenged future by Peter Gammeltoft, Head of Unit, DG ENV.D.2

2 n d EUROPEAN WATER CONFERENCE, 2 -3 APRIL 2009ACTIVE INVOLVEMENT IN RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENTPLUNGE INTO THE DEBATE! http://water.europa.eu/participate

This presentation:

Session VIII Peter Gammeltoft, Head of Unit ENV.D.2, European Commission

Climate change impact on waterAdapting to climate change The White Paper

The future warming signal is not constant over Europe.

Southern European countries are predicted to get a larger warming signal.

Stronger seasonal pattern, with greater summer increases.

Similar pattern found in relation to precipitation

Decreases predicted for water scarce areas

Predicted pattern of future extremesHeavy precipitation eventsHeat-wavesPossible changes in storms

Sea level rise

A familiar storyline - Climate Change in Europe


Climate analogues in 2070, Hadley Centre Model, SRES A2

Hallegatte, Ambrosi, Hourcade (2007)

Illustrating the problem

Water availability

• Area of high water stress likely to increase from 19% today to 35% by the 2070s, and the additional No of people affected by the 2070s is expected to be between 16 millions and 44 millions

• Strong spatial pattern between north and south Europe. Will be economic costs (scarcity) or adaptation costs) -UK

• Adaptation options – water management and efficiency, as well as hard options. Potentially mitigation link desalinisation

• EU role as Transboundary, and existing legislative framework (WFD), unequal distribution of impacts (solidarity)

Crop yield changes in 2080

Source: Text based on ‘Adaptation to Climate Change in the Agricultural Sector’.AGRI-2006-G4-05. AEA Energy & Environment and Universidad de Politécnica de Madrid. Report to DG Agriculture and Rural Development,2007. Map from PESETA Project, A. Iglesias/L. Garrote. The map shows the change in yield from current to the period 2070-2100 (A2 scenario) based on PRUDENCE HadCM3/HIRHAM.

Sea level rise• Sea level will rise 0.18 to

0.59 m from 1980-2000 to 2100 (IPCC)

• Recent projections indicate a future SLR that may exceed the IPCC upper limit

Projected global average sea-level rise 1990-2100

Area below 5 metresLEGEND

Observed sea level rise in mm/yr

+ 2+ 1

0- 1- 2

Source: EC, 2009

Flooding

• Increase in the occurrence and frequency of flood events in large parts of Europe

• Less snow accumulation in winter and lower risk of early spring flooding

Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

Drought

• Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in many regions of Europe

• Southern and south-eastern Europe are most prone to an increase in drought hazard, but minimum river flows will also increase in many other regions

Relative change in mean summer minimum 7-day river flow between 2071-2100 and 1961-1990

Solutions

1. Traditional methods (dykes, dams)

2. Green infrastructure (floodplains, water retention)

Changes in ecosystem structure →implications for the interactions between the biosphere and the climate system and for ecosystem services ←society depends (fresh water, food and medicine)

Ecosystems absorb half of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

Ecosystem based adaptation is often the best and most cost-effective.

Maintain biodiversity, increase resilience and connectivity, maintain healthy

ecosystems

WHITE PAPER

Adapting to climate change : Towards a European framework for action

COM(2009)147/4 of 1.4.2009

COMMISSION STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT

Accompanying the

WHITE PAPER

Climate Change and Water, coasts and Marine Issues

SEC(2009) 386/2 of 1.4.2009Session VIII Peter Gammeltoft, Head of Unit ENV.D.2, European Commission

Policy making process at EU level

Development of an EU Adaptation Framework

Communication adopted in June 2007/Green Paper

Stakeholder Consultations

2007-2008

White Paperadopted 1st April 2009COM(2009)147 final

Internal Consultation


Objective: To improve the EU’s resilience to cope with the

impacts of climate change Phased approach:• Phase 1: 2009-2012 – Lay ground work • Phase 2: 2013 onwards - Implementation of

a comprehensive adaptation strategy

EU adaptation framework


Phase 1: 2009-2012

Strengthen the Knowledge/Evidence BaseMainstream climate Adaptation into key policy areasEmploy a combination of policy instruments Advance work internationally on Adaptation

Working in Partnership with EU, national , regional and local authorities

EU adaptation framework


Strengthening the knowledge base – an essential step forward

• Sound scientific results are paramount

• Current reporting/data mechanismsreporting/data mechanisms are fragmented

• EU Strategy will focus on strengthening the knowledge base

• Important starting point –European Clearing House Mechanism (CHM)European Clearing House Mechanism (CHM)


Clearinghouse Mechanism

• Europe wide data repository and platform for knowledge• Clearing House Mechanism will be a one-stop shop, web-enabled system providing access to information sources, documents, data, case studies etc..• Expected to be operational in 2011•Scoping study underway•In parallel, methods, models, data sets and prediction tools will be developed


-Step by step approach - based on solid scientific and economic analysis- Review and assess appropriate options by sector - Develop Adaptation Strategies outlining the action required

Policy areas: agriculture, forests, biodiversity, ecosystems,

fisheries, energy, transport, water and health

Mainstreaming adaptation into key policy areas


- Better uptake of existing EU structural funds

- European Economic Recovery Plan – contains a number of proposals (modernising European infrastructure, promoting energy efficiency in buildings etc.)

- Insurance and other financial services products

- Market Based Instruments

- EU-ETS – using revenue generated from auctioning allowances for adaptation purposes

Funding: Employ a combination of policy

instruments


The EU is committed to working with third countries to he EU is committed to working with third countries to improve their resilience and capacity to adapt to the improve their resilience and capacity to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change through for example:adverse effects of climate change through for example:

- Bilateral and Regional Agreements

- The Global Climate Change Alliance

- The UNFCCC - EU Proposal for a Comprehensive Framework for Action on Adaptation (FAA)

Advance work internationally on adaptation


- Close co-ordination with EU Member States is essential in preparing effectively to address the impacts of Climate Change- Establish Impact and Adaptation Steering Group (IASG) with Member States- IASG will develop the 4 Pillars and take Adaptation Framework forward- Steering Group will be supported by technical groups and will consult with civil society and the scientific community

Working in partnership


• http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/climate_action.htm

• http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Thank you for your attention !


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Climate change adaptation – a challenged future - CIRCABC · Session VIII : Climate change adaptation – a challenged future by Peter Gammeltoft, Head of Unit, DG ENV.D.2 2nd EUROPEAN