Climate Change Adaptation: An Australian Perspective

Professor Tim Smith Director, Sustainability Research Centre

NZCCRI Seminar Series, Victoria University of Wellington, 13 December 2011

Inter-generational equity

Intra-generational equity

Poverty

Biodiversity

Waste

Consumption

Globalisation

Pollution

Water

Population

“As for the future, your task is not to foresee it but to enable it”

Saint-Exupery, A de 1952, The Wisdom of the Sands, Hollis & Carter, London (UK Edition).

Antoine De Saint-Exupery

• Complexity, uncertainty and high decision stakes

leading to changes in:

– The science-policy-community interface

– Research approaches

Context for climate change adaptation

Climate change: what we know

• Hotter

• Sea level rise

• More extreme events:

– More intense storms

– More intense floods

– More intense storm surge

Australia is a coastal nation

• 85% of Australia’s population reside within 50km of the coastline

• up to 247 600 existing residential buildings will be at risk from sea inundation by 2100 under a sea-level rise scenario of 1.1m*

* Climate Change Risks to Australia’s Coasts Report

Is it really that bad?

Sea level rise is relatively easy ... it’s the extreme events that are the major worry!

Is it really that bad?

Some examples of different outcomes

North Queensland versus South East Queensland

Fatalities:

• North Queensland (cyclone Yasi) = 1

• South East Queensland (floods) = >20

• Brazil (floods) = >700

Japan versus Indonesia

Fatalities:

• Japan (Tsunami and earthquake) = >20 000

• Indonesia (Tsunami) = >200 000

Understanding vulnerability

Eg. increased temperature Eg. elderly

Eg. social networks

Adapted from Allen Consulting 2005, after IPCC 2001

Allen Consulting 2005 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability, Australian Greenhouse Office, Department of the Environment and Heritage, Canberra, Australia.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001). In: McCarthy, J., Caziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D. & White, K. (eds.) Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Past science focus

exposure sensitivity

Adaptive capacity Potential harm

Vulnerability

From planning to implementation

Climate adaptation strategy

Effective Implementation

Adaptive Capacity

Adaptive capacity

• Refers to what is needed to adapt:

– Access to resources

– Education

– Social networks

Responding to climate change is a social process

Evolution of adaptive capacity thinking

Daffara, P., Keys, N. and Smith, T. F. 2009, Critical Review of Adaptive Capacity Literature, Report prepared for the National

Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Brisbane.

Daffara et al., 2009

Dominance of biophysical assessments of climate change

Recognition of the importance of adaptive capacity

Focus on searching for generic determinants of adaptive capacity

Recognition of the importance of context

Recognition of the need for case studies of adaptive capacity determinants

Emerging discourse of the relationships between adaptive capacity determinants

Conceptual model of adaptive capacity

Daffara et al., 2009

Generic determinants of

adaptive capacity

Context-specific determinants

of adaptive capacity

External influences on

adaptive capacity

•Environmental change

•Socio-economic change

•May have positive or

negative influences

depending on the context

•Often assumed

•Relationships not explored

Drivers of climate change impacts

Climate change drivers:

• Wind, sea level rise, rainfall, temperature

Other drivers:

• Population movements (eg. migration)

• Population characteristics (eg. education)

• Economic conditions (eg. ability to raise funds)

• Legislative and policy frameworks

Coastal Population Growth Projections

Australian sea change regions (local government area, State)

Projected population change (2002 to 2022)

Projected population in 2022

Sunshine Coast, Queensland 80% increase 450,000

Surf Coast, Victoria 71% increase 30,572

Douglas Shire, Queensland 65% increase 17,365

Augusta-Margaret River, Western Australia 64% increase 16,513

Smith and Thomsen 2008, adapted from ABS 2001, and QDIP 2008

Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. (2008) “Understanding Vulnerabilities in Transitional Coastal Communities”, In Wallendorf, L., Ewing, L., Jones, C. and Jaffe, B. (eds.) Proceedings of Solutions to Coastal Disasters 2008,

April 13-16, Hawaii: American Society of Civil Engineers, pp. 980-989.

Australian Bureau of Statistics (2001) Population Projections by SLA (ASGC 2001), 2002-2022. Canberra: Commonwealth Department of Health and Ageing.

Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning (QDIP) (2008) Sunshine Coast population and housing fact sheet. Brisbane: Queensland Department of Infrastructure and Planning, February 2008.

Population at risk in South East Queensland

Risk of inundation from a 1-in-100 year storm surge event:

• Current risk

270 000 people (10% of current population)

• Risk in 2030 without population growth

378 000 people

• Risk in 2030 with projected population growth of 60%

616 000 people

This material was prepared by Xiaoming Wang, Mark Stafford Smith, Ryan McAllister, Anne Leitch, Steve McFallan, Seona Meharg of CSIRO‟s Climate Adaptation Flagship, based on research in the „South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative‟, analysis of readily available information and expert knowledge to provide a realistic assessment of the issues covered.

Illustration of how adaptation can expand the coping range of an activity/sector/species and therefore expand the coping range and reduce vulnerability to climate change

Jones & Mearns 2005

Vulnerability-based Risk Assessment of Climate Change

Resilience framework eg. ability to re-organise and renew

Vulnerability framework eg. reducing harm

Sustainability framework eg. inter-generational equity

Adaptation discourses

Evolution of climate change science

Perf

orm

ance

Time

Climate change science (1st Curve) Mono-disciplinarity

Adaptation science (2nd Curve) Trans-disciplinarity

Next shift (3rd Curve) – Resilience science? Holism?

A

B

C

Daffara et al., 2009

Adaptation pathways

Characteristics of Resource Dilemmas

SLIM, 2002

SLIM, 2004

Alternative models of knowledge construction

Post-normal science

• Recognition of uncertainty

• Value-laden

• Participatory

Kuhn, 1962; Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991; Ravetz, 1999

Kuhn, T. S. 1962. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Funtowicz, S. O. and Ravetz, J. R. 1991, „A new scientific methodology for global environmental issues‟, In Costanza, R. (ed.), Ecological Economics: The Science and

Management of Sustainability, pp. 137-152. Columbia University Press, New York.

Ravetz, J. R. 1999, „What is post-normal science?‟, Futures, 31, pp. 647-653.

Post-normal science

Smith 2009 after Ravetz, 2006

Post-normal

science

Decision

stakes

Professional

consultancy

Uncertainty

Applied

science

Responding to sustainability

• The compass

• The gyroscope

• social learning

Kai Lee 1993; Milbrath 1989; Smith & Lazarow 2007 Lee, K. 1993, The Compass and the Gyroscope, Island Press, Washington DC.

Milbrath, L. W. 1989, Sustainable Society: Learning Our Way Out, SUNY University Press, New York.

Smith, T. F. and Lazarow, N. S. 2007, „Social Learning and the Adaptive Management Framework‟, Journal of Coastal Research, SI 39.

What is being done?

1. Australian Department of Climate Change & Energy Efficiency

2. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

3. The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship

4. Australian Research Council

1. Sydney climate change adaptation initiative (Dept of Climate Change)

2. Coastal Adaptation Pathways Program, Multi-criteria analysis for coastal adaptation decision-making (Dept of Climate Change)

3. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility

a) Partner in the Facility

b) Lead the Communities Theme of the Marine Biodiversity & Resources Network

c) Part of the Socio-economic and Institutional Network

d) Co-authored National Adaptation Research Plan for Human Settlements

e) Synthesis project: Nature and Utility of Adaptive Capacity Research

4. Australian Research Council Discovery project: Household vulnerability index (Griffith, USC, Flinders)

5. CSIRO Coastal Collaboration Cluster (7 universities, $10m over 3 years)

6. SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (CSIRO, Griffith, USC, UQ; funded by CSIRO Collaboration Fund, DCC, Qld govt, $14m over 3 years)

Examples of climate change projects

Sydney Climate Change Adaptation Initiative

Aim:

To develop and trial a method for a systems approach to regional climate change adaptation strategies in large urban areas

Researchers:

Tim Smith, Ben Preston, Cassandra Brooke, Russell

Gorddard, Tom Measham, Geoff Withycombe, Beth

Beveridge, Debbie Abbs, Kathy McInnes, and Craig

Morrison

“Systems Approach to Regional Climate Change

Adaptation Strategies in Metropolises”

• To study these systems we need to look at:

– Drivers of change

– Relays of change

– Impacts on sustainability

– Management responses

An integrated approach

Systems approaches

• From disciplinary to trans-disciplinary

• From reductionist to whole of ecosystem science

• Ways of looking at the whole rather than the parts

– A language for systemic rather than linear thinking

– Building shared understanding of the system

Acknowledgement to Russell Gorddard (CSIRO) for some of the following slides

Identifying key interventions

Adapted from Godet, 1994

Godet, M. (1994). From anticipation to action: A handbook of strategic prospecting. UNESCO Publishing.

influence

dependence

drivers relays

impacts

Relative vulnerability mapping

System conceptualisation

System conceptualisation

Horrendagram

Rainfall

Heat

Storm Surge

Storm Water

Management

Open Space

ManagementCoastline

Management

Natural Areas

Management

DevelopmentControl

Urban Planning

Health Plan

Transport System

PlanWaste

Management

Pollution Control

Emergancy

Management

Communcation

Plan

Education (Management)/Capacity Building / Social

Plan

Weed

Management

Water Conservation

Management

Infrastructure

Planning

Financial Plan

Data Collection

Carbon Plan

Economic

Prosperity

Legislation Frame

Work

Lobbying

Funding / Grants

Bushland

Management

Neighboring

Councils

State

Govenment

Policy

Sea Level

Rise

Drought

Population

Political Will

Topography

Foreshore

Damage

Community

Evacuation

Disease /

Health Impacts

Acid Sulphate

Soils

Sewage Ecosysems

Flooding

Infrastructure

Financial Impacts

Housing

Amenity

Social Breakdown

Vulnerable

Communities

Community

Behavior

Strategic Plan

System conceptualisation

Infrastructure

Amenity Economic Prosperity

Financial Impacts

Flooding

Community Evacuation

(Economic Prosperity)

Housing

(Infrastructure)

Social Breakdown

System conceptualisation

In fras t ru ctu re

F lo o d in g

C o m m u n i ty B eh av io r

(In fras t ru ctu re)

N eig h b o rin g C o u n ci l s

R ain fal l

S ea L ev el R i s e

S t at e G o v en m en t P o l i cy

S to rm S u rg e

T o p o g rap h y

F u n d in g / G ran t s(S t at e G o v en m en t P o l i cy )

(S t rat eg i c P l an )

H eat

P o p u lat i o n(S t ate G o v en m en t P o l i cy )

S to rm W ater M an ag em en t

D ev elo p m en t C o n t ro l

E m erg an cy M an ag em en t

(R ain fal l )

S t rat eg i c P lan

B u s h l an d M an ag em en t

C o as t l i n e M an ag em en t

D ata C o l l ect io n

F in an ci al P l an

H eal t h P l an

In fras t ru ctu re P l an n in g

N at u ral A reas M an ag em en t

(N eig h b o rin g C o u n ci l s )

P o l i t i cal W i l l

(P o p u l at i o n )

(S tat e G o v en m en t P o l i cy )

T ran s p o rt S y s t em P l an

U rb an P l an n in g

W as t e M an ag em en t

W eed M an ag em en t

Priority issues

Rainfall

Heat

Storm Surge

Storm Water

Management

Open Space

ManagementCoastline

Management

Natural Areas

Management

DevelopmentControl

Urban Planning

Health Plan

Transport System

PlanWaste

Management

Pollution Control

Emergancy

Management

Communcation

Plan

Education (Management)/Capacity Building / Social

Plan

Weed

Management

Water Conservation

Management

Infrastructure

Planning

Financial Plan

Data Collection

Carbon Plan

Economic

Prosperity

Legislation Frame

Work

Lobbying

Funding / Grants

Bushland

Management

Neighboring

Councils

State

Govenment

Policy

Sea Level

Rise

Drought

Population

Political Will

Topography

Foreshore

Damage

Community

Evacuation

Disease /

Health Impacts

Acid Sulphate

Soils

Sewage Ecosysems

Flooding

Infrastructure

Financial Impacts

Housing

Amenity

Social Breakdown

Vulnerable

Communities

Community

Behavior

Strategic Plan

Development Control

Infrastructure

Barriers and opportunities Issue: Infrastructure Potential impact: (very low – low – medium – high – very high) Capacity to manage: (very low – low – medium – high – very high) Barriers Opportunities

Aging infrastructure

$$ high cost of maintenance and low capacity

to fund new infrastructure

No standards re capacity required

Restricted space and scope to increase

capacity / Brownfield

Political cutting back S94 funds

Uncertainty of science – planning for future

needs

Topography

Some infrastructure would have adverse

impacts on the City

Forced reliance on other infrastructure

provides for institutional barriers, competing

interests, legislative inconsistencies

Good cross-unit linkages internally

New development brings funding opportunities

and opportunities to ensure climate change

needs are met (S94)

Improved Technology, design, higher

standards

Good frame works for funding and gaining new

infrastructure (legislation)

Share information with other organisation and

councils

Innovative thinking

New technology to improve environmental

outcomes e.g. Stormwater reuse

Proximity to public transport though fare to City

Special Levy (to ensure climate change needs

are met) and storm water levy

Barrier Number of times cited

Community 33

Infrastructure 31

Planning 29

Water 23

Funds / funding 21

Development 17

State 15

Council 12

Political 11

Transport 10

Government 9

Knowledge 8

Flooding 5

Regional barriers

Case study results

• Climate change adaptation is an emerging issue (focus on mitigation)

• Climate change was usually the responsibility of environmental divisions within local government

• The role of local government in addressing climate change is poorly defined

• Climate change is mostly ignored in the process of regulating development

• There is little understanding within councils about the level of vulnerability to climate change impacts

• There is an absence of systematic monitoring and evaluation

Actions to build adaptive capacity Stream Name Description of Covered Actions

“Know Your Enemy”

Enhancing understanding regarding existing and future climate hazards and social and ecological vulnerability

“Plan for Change”

Incorporating climate change into existing and novel Local Government planning frameworks

“Get Smart”

Implementing education and outreach programs to increase the knowledge of Council and the broader community with respect to climate change, vulnerability and adaptation

“Act, Watch and Learn”

Implementing monitoring, evaluation and reporting measures for Local Government to track outcomes with respect to policies and measures associated with climate adaptation

“Put the House in Order”

Developing both internal and external institutional arrangements that build adaptive capacity within and across Councils and other levels of government

“Money Talks”

Enhancing revenue streams to Councils to assist in financing adaptation and cost-sharing mechanisms to spread the burden among multiple tiers of government

SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative

AU$14 m initiative over 3 years

• The CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship

• The Queensland State Government

• The Australian Government Department of Climate Change

• Griffith University

• The University of the Sunshine Coast

• The University of Queensland

SEQ Climate Adaptation Research Initiative

From planning to implementation

Climate adaptation strategy

Effective Implementation

Adaptive Capacity

Building adaptive capacity in SEQ

1. Identifying relevant socio-economic patterns and trends

2. Historical analysis of adaptation

3. System conceptualisation – identifying the perceived and likely vulnerabilities of each sector

4. Identifying the key attributes of adaptive capacity

5. Designing cost effective strategies to enhance adaptive capacity that include institutionalised monitoring, evaluation and learning

1. Socio-economic trends

• Population grew significantly (19%) between 1996 and 2006 Trends set to continue (57% projected increase to 2031)

• The growing population, in particular increasing densities in high risk coastal urban areas, is a cause for concern for climate change adaptation

• Projections also show a doubling of lone person households and an increase of at least 60% for one parent family households across the region

2. Historical Analysis of Adaptive Capacity

• 9 determinants of adaptive capacity across 33 cases

* Complexity * Values * Imagination

* Leadership * Technology * Information

* Institutions * Knowledge * Scale

• These determinants play out in unique ways according to context

• Interventions in the personal, technological, social and cultural domains are required for a whole of system response to climate change

3. System conceptualisation

Rainfall

Heat

Storm Surge

Storm Water

Management

Open Space

ManagementCoastline

Management

Natural Areas

Management

DevelopmentControl

Urban Planning

Health Plan

Transport System

PlanWaste

Management

Pollution Control

Emergancy

Management

Communcation

Plan

Education (Management)/Capacity Building / Social

Plan

Weed

Management

Water Conservation

Management

Infrastructure

Planning

Financial Plan

Data Collection

Carbon Plan

Economic

Prosperity

Legislation Frame

Work

Lobbying

Funding / Grants

Bushland

Management

Neighboring

Councils

State

Govenment

Policy

Sea Level

Rise

Drought

Population

Political Will

Topography

Foreshore

Damage

Community

Evacuation

Disease /

Health Impacts

Acid Sulphate

Soils

Sewage Ecosysems

Flooding

Infrastructure

Financial Impacts

Housing

Amenity

Social Breakdown

Vulnerable

Communities

Community

Behavior

Strategic Plan

Community Resilience and Capacity

Community

Resilience &

Capacity

Mitigation

Planning &

Preparedness

Response

Capacity

Recovery

Capacity

Aware-

Prepared

Community

Apathy

(motivation)

Adequacy of

Resources

Infrastructure

(coping)

Socio-

Economic

Status

Community

Support

Networks

4. Determinants of adaptive capacity (BBN)

60% 20% 20%

80% 20% 50% 50% 50% 50%

•Self-Recovery

•Aided-Recovery

•Proactive

•Reactive

•Manageable

•Overwhelming

•Independent

•Dependent

Conditional Probability Table

Mitigation Planning &

Preparedness

Response Capacity Recovery

Capacity

Community Resilience & Capacity

SELF-RECOVERY AIDED-RECOVERY

PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT

PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT

PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT

PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT

REACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT

REACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT

REACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT

REACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT

Mitigation Planning &

Preparedness

Response Capacity Recovery

Capacity

Community Resilience & Capacity

SELF-RECOVERY AIDED-RECOVERY

PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT 85% 15%

PROACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT 70% 30%

PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT 80% 20%

PROACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT 70% 30%

REACTIVE MANAGEABLE INDEPENDENT 80% 20%

REACTIVE MANAGEABLE DEPENDENT 60% 40%

REACTIVE OVERWHELMING INDEPENDENT 60% 40%

REACTIVE OVERWHELMING DEPENDENT 50% 50%

Competing mandates

• Australia: Largest coal exporter in the world (35% of market share=$50bn)

• Coal not exported is primarily used for domestic energy supply

• Focus on (short-term) economic growth

How can institutions for sustainability compete?

Institutional complexity Wet Tropics World

Heritage Area

Freehold Land

Provincial

Boundary

Grazing Land,

leasehold

Regional Coastal

Management Plan

Source: Jenny Bellamy

Environmentally

Relevant Activity: EPA

Major Rock Wall

Voluntary Conservation

Agreement

Wetland: Code of Practice

for sustainable Cane

Growing

Declared Fish Habitat

Area

Fish Habitat

Code of Practice

Works in tidally

affected areas

Bed/banks River

Marine Plants

Recreation Area

Management Act

Coastal Control

District

Wetland

Voluntary Conservation

Agreement

Sugar Cane: Sugar

Industry Act

Nested adaptation

Adaptation

Conservation agendas

Development agendas

Economic growth agendas

International agendas

Equity agendas

Key questions for scoping the future

• What future/s do we want?

• How do we achieve it? – back casting

• Where are we heading? – current trajectories

• How should we be responding?

• How can we learn to alter and monitor our trajectories?

Adaptation goals

Adaptive capacity complicaters Biological mind

Biased to:

Disconnection

Proximity

Simplicity

Certainty

Discrepancy

Worldview mind

Biased to:

Atomism

Mechanism

Anthropocentrism

Rationalism

Individualism

Contemporary mind

Biased to:

Efficiency

Growth

Secularism

Narcissism

Techno-optimism

Psychodynamic mind

Biased to:

Repression

Denial

Projection

Rationalisation

Insulation

The unsustainable mind

Gladwin, T., Newburry, W. and Reiskin, E. 1997, „Why is the Northern Elite Mind Biased Against Community, the Environment and a Sustainable Future?‟, In: Bazerman, M., Messick, D., Tenbrunsel, A. and Wade-Benzoni, K. (eds) Environment, Ethics and Behaviour, The New Lexington Press, San Francisco, pp. 234-274.

Learning

Biggs, J. 1999, Teaching for Quality Learning at University, Society for Research into

Higher Education & Open University Press, Buckingham.

Higher order learning

Lower order learning

theorising

conceptualising

recognising

memorising

reflecting

applying

note-taking

Contextual Learning Framework Learning type Learning process Learner outcomes System outcomes

Prestructural Not specified Misses point No outcome

Unistructural One-way information transfer

Identifies

Follows

procedure

Information distribution

Multistructural Multi-way information transfer

Enumerates

Describes

Combines

Describes system

Systems thinking Transformative information

Compares and

contrasts

Explains causes

Analyses

Relates

Applies

Improves knowledge of system

Extended systems thinking

Transformative knowledge

Theorises

Hypothesises

Reflects

Improves system

Smith & Thomsen 2006 Smith, T. F. and Thomsen, D. C. 2006, „Institutionalising Adaptive Learning For Coastal Management‟, in

Lazarow, N., Souter, R., Fearon, R. and Dovers, S. (eds.) 2006, Coastal Management in Australia: Key institutional and governance issues for coastal natural resource management and planning, CRC for

Coastal Zone, Estuary and Waterway Management, Brisbane, pp. 115-120.

Enhancing sustainability

Futures focus

Proactive learning

Today focus

Reactive learning

Post-normal science

Systems thinking

Normal science

Reductionist science

Transforming data to information to knowledge to impact to wisdom

Transition

Enhancing sustainability

Inte

gra

tio

n

Smith, T. F. 2009

A neo-research approach to enhance climate change adaptation, In Martin, J. (ed.) Climate Change Responses across Regional Australia: Social Learning and Adaptation. VURRN Press, Victoria

Enhancing adaptive capacity

• Focus often on:

– measuring and predicting biophyscial changes

– Developing new technologies

• Meaningless without understanding and enhancing adaptive capacity