Climate Change Adaptation in LondonAndy DeaconGLA Environment Team

Warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers

Summer 2050’s

(high emissions)

• +3ºC

• - 30-40% rainfall

Winter 2050’s

(high emissions)

• +1.5 - 2 ºC

• + 25-30% rainfall

TEMPERATURE RISE by the 2080s(Medium-High Emissions scenario)

winter summer

°C

Source : Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

CHANGE IN

NUMBER OF DAYS

WITH DAILY MAX

TEMPERATURE >

36°C

Predicted to increase

by a factor of 10

across most of the UK

Recent climate

2080sclimate

Source : Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

How is London Vulnerable toClimate Change?

This means that London is vulnerable to:

• Flooding• Water resources• Overheating• Subsidence and heave• Wind storms• Global climate events

All require adaptation to manage the long-term average changes and emergency planning to manage extreme situations

Climate change will mean that London will experience :

• Warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers

• More frequent and more intense extreme events (heatwaves, tidal surges, heavy rain, windstorms)

• Continuing sea level rise

Heat

European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s

observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)

2003

2040s

2060s

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y (w

rt19

61-9

0) °

C

Heat in LondonIssues• London has experienced high temperatures that have

impacted upon public health and the economy (example : August 2003 heatwave)

• London will experience progressively warmer summers and an increased frequency and intensity of very hot weather periods

• Building regulations drive to keep buildings warm in winter, not cool in summer

• There is no criterion for ‘overheating’ in homes, workplaces, public buildings or public transportThe policy direction should be to reduce summer excess deaths and avoid air conditioning

Keeping Cool

1 – managing summer solar gain through passive design

• Orientation / Profile

• External shading

• High albedo

• Insulation and air tightness

• Exposed internal thermal mass

2 – energy efficient cooling

• Good natural ventilation

• Carbon efficient mixed mode ventilation

• Carbon efficient active ventilation

(air conditioning in emergencies for vulnerable people)

Urban Heat Island actions

• Research into London’s Urban Heat Island effect

• Predicted temperature maps for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s

• Define and rank socio-economic factors that influence vulnerability to overheating

• Case studies from other parts of the world

UHI management options

• Cool Roofs

• Urban Greening and Green Roofs

• Cool materials

• Sky view factor

• Heatwave protection and preparedness

• Manage waste heat

Flooding

Four flood sources

• Tidal

• Fluvial

• Surface

• Sewer

(Groundwater)

Frequently experience flooding from more than one source

Flood Risk Management

Managing Probability• build higher defences • Maintain and inspect them

regularly• Improve permeability and

drainageManaging Consequence• Locate vulnerable land uses

away from high flood risk areas• Design remaining development

to be flood resilient• Good warning detection• Strong Emergency Planning • Raise public awareness !!

Planning for Flood Risk Management in the Thames Estuary

THE STUDY AREA SHOWING AREA AT RISK FROM TIDAL FLOODING

THAMES REGION

SOUTHERN REGION

ANGLIAN REGION

TEDDINGTON WEIR(TIDAL LIMIT)

THAMES BARRIER

DARTFORD BARRIER

BARKING BARRIER

SHOEBURYNESS

CANVEY ISLAND

SHEERNESS

Grays

Tilbury

Gravesend

BENFLEET BARRIER

FOBBING HORSE BARRIER

KEY

GLA Boundary

Downstream Limit of Strategy

EA Regional Boundary

5m Contour

EAST HAVEN BARRIER

Lewisham

Greenwich Peninsula

Barking/Havering

Woolwich/Erith

BasildonShellhaven/Canvey Island

Isle Of Grain

Sheerness/SheppyMedway

Thurrock

Kent/Thameside

Zone Of Change

Stratford/Royals

Continued protection of 1.25 million peopleand £80bn property value in flood risk area

Water Resources

Water ResourcesIssue : Climate change will increase demand and reduce availability of water

• We need to identify how much demand will increase by and how much supply may be reduced by

• Consider a water hierarchy– Reducing the wastage of water– Reducing the amount we use (improve efficiency)– Reuse and recycle water

Options• Change public perception and behaviour• Londonwide metering and incentivising tariffs• Encourage building regs to set limit on water use• Compulsory water harvesting

AwarenessThe current practice of Water Efficiency Awareness follows the process called the Hydro-Illogical Cycle. Whereby we don’t maintain what we’ve learnt.

- Not prepared for the next drought.- Still wasting water the same way year after year.- Location of emergency services in Carlisle (flooding)

(from I.R. Tannehill, Drought: Its Causes and Effects, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey, 1947)

Partnership and Strategy

• London’s Warming report (Oct 2002)

• Transport research (September 2005)

• Checklist for Development (November 2005)

London Climate Change Partnership

Climate Impacts on Transport

Case studies:

1.Tidal and river flooding in Thames Gateway

2.Flash flooding of Underground, railway stations and roads

3.Damage to rail and road infrastructure in hot weather

4.Passenger comfort on the Underground

Incorporating Adaptation into New Development

• Location• Site layout• Buildings structure,

envelope, materials• Ventilation and

cooling• Drainage• Water• Outdoor space• Connectivity

Adapting to Climate Change: Lessons for London

Focus on Adaptation for:

Flooding

High Temperatures

Limited Water Resources

Delivers 12 Recommendations

Target Audiences:- Policy & decision-makers- LCCP Stakeholders- Mayor of London- Greater London Authority- Govt. Departments- Developers- Utilities & Regulators

Financial and economic issues

• Climate change will have positive and negative effects on all businesses.

• Research into the effects on London’s businesses

• Identify opportunities to routinely integrate climate change into their business planning

• Stern Review – investigating the economics of climate change globally

Mayor’s Adaptation Strategy

• Ensure that climate change does not increase social inequality

• Ensure that new development and infrastructure is located, designed and constructed for the climate change it will experience over its design life

• Ensure that appropriate emergency planning is in place to respond to extreme climatic events

• Ensure that London’s economy is prepared for the challenges and opportunities presented by climate change

• Ensure that London’s growth reduces London’s vulnerability to climate change

• Encourage businesses to integrate climate change into their business planning

• To promote adaptation of the natural environment

• Position London as an international role model in adapting to climate change

Emissions Reduction

Andy DeaconGLA Environment Team

Emissions Map – Total CO2

(2003)

CO2 targets announced in draft London Plan

20%15%

30%

60%

25%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2050 aspiration

Red

uct

ion

in E

mis

sio

ns

Congestion Charge Banding• TfL investigating proposals to

amend the Congestion Charging scheme so that it discourages the use of cars producing high levels of carbon emissions

– Discounts for cars with low CO2

emissions

– Most other cars would continue driving in the zone at the present rate of £8 per day

– Those vehicles with very high CO2 emissions - such as those in current Vehicle Excise Duty (VED) band G - which produce over 226g/km of CO2 emissions, could be charged at a higher rate, around £25

• Review of Mayoral Powers– Climate change Duty– Statutory Climate Change & Energy and CC Adaptation Strategies

• Land Use Planning –

– Increasing energy efficiency

– Promoting renewables

– Zero Carbon Development project.

– Energy Action Areas

• Transport

– Travel Demand Management

– Congestion Charging and Low Emission Zone

– Improved carbon efficiency of bus fleet

– Increase in cycling and walking

• Promotion and persuasion - Climate Change Awareness campaign and wider environmental awareness raising

• LCCA & Partnerships– showing by doing• Partnership with other world cities

– Clinton Climate Initiative/Large Cities Climate Large Leadership Group

Current Action: Mitigation

Example: Thermal efficiency

* Expected lifetime of product is only 20 years

NOTE: Average cost is based on London housing profile. Costs vary significantly according to size and structure of dwelling

Source: Domestic Energy Primer (EST); TfL Policy Unit analysis

Worthwhile improvements (Typically need a builder.

Affordable investment, short term return)

Hot water tank insulation

Cavity Wall Insulation

Full heating control package

Loft insulation (additional)

Solid Wall Insulation (ext)

Replacement condensing boiler

Solid Wall Insulation (int)

Radiator Panels

Draught-stripping

Double glazing

Appliances

Lighting

Usage transparency

Public awareness

Measure

Loft insulation (any)

Secondary Glazing

Floor insulation

Average cost (£)

20

10

45

224

198

238

242

84

693

808

1278

600

4000

N/A

85

N/A

N/A

CO2 per annum (tpa)

0.03

0.11

0.08

1.24

0.29

0.33

0.43

0.17

0.40

0.91

0.98

0.11

0.23

0.27

0.19

0.15

0.13

Payback period (years)

4

<1

3

4

4

4

3

10

5

8

30*

95*

N/A

<1

N/A

N/A

1

Quick wins (consumers can do themselves)

Substantial investments (more expensive and/or disruptive)

Non infrastructure(not disruptive or expensive)

Numbers to be confirmed

Partnership Approach

• London Energy Partnership

• London Hydrogen Partnership

• London Climate Change Partnership

• London Climate Change Agency

Large Cities Climate Leadership Group

Clinton Climate Initiative