Climate Change and Agriculture: ensuring food production is not

threatened.

EPA Public Lecture Series on Climate Change -Dublin - 15 March 2011

Alexandre Meybeck, FAO

A triple Challenge

• More food, in quantity, quality and diversity, everywhere for everyone

• Adapt to Climate Change

• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change

Food and Nutrition Security

• Availability

• Accessibility

• Utilisation

• Stability

Towards 9 billion in 2050

Meat consumption in developing countries

FAO 2006

Poultry

Pork

OvineBovine

Biofuels

A1B: 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999, boreal winter (IPPCC 2007)

(summer) growing season temperature Current versus model projections

Source: Naylor R. and Battisti D. 2008 (pers comm)

Mean changes in precipitation 2080-2099 to 1980-1999

Dryer Wetter

scenario A1B, IPCC 2007

Areas of current physical and economic water scarcity

Sea level rise will impact important production areas

Rice in Bangladesh South Delta

Impacts on ecosystems

Main effects on agricultural production

• Decrease of production in certain areas

• Changes in the geography of productions

• Increased variability of production

Projected yields in Morocco

A: irrigated maize and irrigated seasonal vegetables - B: irrigated fruits and vegetables - C: fodder crops and

vegetables - D: rainfed cereals and legumes - E: rainfed wheat and barley - F: Other rainfed crops.

Irrigated crops

Rainfedcrops

Yield Variation

0%

Climatic risks for Coffee production in Brazil (Embrapa)

2010 2070 (scenario A2)

Green: low climatic riskWhite: high climatic riskMauve: irrigation necessaryPink: irrigation recommendedYellow: risk of frostBlue: risk of high temperature

Main impacts of CC on livestock

• Increased risk of heat stress, intensity and frequency

• Availability of water

• Quantity and quality of available and accessible feed

• Modifications in the distribution, intensity and frequency of diseases and parasites (?)

Cap Verde

Wild foods

Slovenia

Productivity trends by 2050

Source: IPCC (2007)

Impact on Food and Nutrition Security

• Impacts on the most vulnerable countries

• Impacts on the most vulnerable people, including small holders

• Impacts on malnutrition

What contribution to mitigation?

Agriculture and Forestry in Global Emissions (IPCC)

Greenhouse gas emission sources/removals in agriculture

Emissions of the agricultural sector (IPCC 2007)

Technical mitigation potential (IPCC 2007)

Food Systems more efficient and resilient

• More food, in quantity, quality and diversity • Adapt to Climate Change• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change

• More resource efficient: use less land, water, inputs to produce more food sustainably

• More resilient to change and shocks

Sustainable intensification of crop production

• Better management of water• Integrated nutrient management• Conservation agriculture• Genetic resources• Ecosystems’ functions• Diversification

Exploitable yield gaps for maize in Africa

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Malaw i(n=4566)

Ethiopia(n=310)

Nigeria(n=2501)

Uganda(n=461)

Mali (n=163) Mozambique(n=508)

Ton

per h

ecta

re

Average national yield Average yield in farm demonstrations

Rain water harvesting

Zaï pits

Nutrient management

Bangladesh

Legumes

Croatia

Conservation Agriculture

Ghana

Genetic resourcesLima: International Potato Center

“Seed systems”

Seed production in Haiti

Efficiency in the livestock sector

Gill et al. (2010)Gill et al (2010)

Death rate of calves

Relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and output per cow

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Output per cow, kg FPCM per year

kg C

O2-

eq. p

er k

g FP

CM

Pastoral systems

Intensive systems

GHG

Milk

Biodigestors

Cambodia

Resilience in pastoral systems

Resilience in “Industrial” systems

• Heat stress– Buildings (projections)– Management (previsions)

• Feed accessibility– Increased variability of production and

trade– Increased price volatility

• Flexibility

Diversification

Nepal

Learning from Shinyanga, Tanzania: Restoring 500,000 ha of degraded grasslands

to higher productivity by adapting traditional Ngitili agro-pastoral management

Crop-Livestock Systems

Rice-Fish systems

Madagascar

Grassland & rangeland management

Tunisia

Agroforestry

Landscape approach

Rwanda, Nile Basin

Food chain approaches

Food losses

Africa(SSA)

Europe

Cereals 19% 31%

Fruits & vegetables

51,6% 46%

Meat 27% 22%

Milk 25% 12%(FAO 2011)

Cereal lossesAgricultural production

Postharvest handling & storage

Processing & packaging

Distribution

Consumption

Total

Africa (SSA)

6% 8% 3,5% 2% 1% 19%

Europe 2% 4% 0,5% 2% 25% 31%

Field Consumer

Fruits & vegetables lossesAgricultural production

Postharvest handling & storage

Processing & packaging

Distribution

Consumption

Total

Africa (SSA)

10% 9% 25% 17% 5% 52%

Europe 22% 5% 2% 10% 19% 46%

Field Consumer

Reduce food lossesMetallic silos in Afghanistan

Cooking

Ghana

Increase systemic resilience & efficiencyPolicies, Institutions, Finances

Manage risks

• monitoring• vulnerability assessment• identification of (ex-ante) damage

reduction measures • early action• Reparation of losses to productive

assets

Enabling farmers to change

Change of practice

Investment needs for agriculture in developing countries

Needs

Funding

Agricultural R&D annual growth rates

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Asia & Pacific Latin America& Caribbean

West Asia &North Africa

Developingcountries

High-incomecountries

Ann

ual g

row

th ra

te (p

erce

ntag

e)

1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000

Trade for efficiency & resilience

• Link small holders to markets– Infrastructures– Transparency

• International markets- Information, transparency- Price volatility

Governance

• Need to address comprehensively Food Security and Climate Change, both Adaptation & Mitigation

• At every level, local, national, regional

Cancun Agreement

• Cancun Adaptation Framework • REDD+ (drivers of deforestation)• Green Climate Fund (balanced

allocation between adaptation and mitigation)

• NAMA’s

Link Food Security & Climate Change in international Fora

• CFS has requested a study to HLPE on Food Security & Climate Change

• Cancun Adaptation Framework has to include Food Security concerns