Climate change and

conservation planning

Jade Phillips

jadephill10@gmail.com

Nordic/ECPGR Joint Workshop

Vilnius, Lithuania 19th-21st September 2016

Limit warming below 2˚C Paris Climate Change agreement 2015

Signed by180 states (and EU)

Ratified by 27 (including China

and the US)

Limit warming to 3˚C

INDCs (Intended Nationally Determined

Contributions)

http://www.climate-lab-

book.ac.uk/files/2016/07/spiral_may2016.gif

Climate change

What does this mean for crops/CWRs?

Shifts to higher latitudes and

elevations, poleward direction of

range expansion (Thomas et al 2012)

CWR negatively affected, 50% of

range size lost by 2055 (Jarvis et al 2008)

Northern Europe:

Increase in temperature and

precipitation (Soloman 2007)

Arctic warming at faster rate than

global average (Arctic climate change

assessment)

Increased crop yields, extension of

growing season (Olesen and Bindi 2002,

Hanssen et al 2009) BUT means increase

in species moving into the country.

https://haveland.com/share/arctic-death-spiral.png

Integrating into conservation

plans

Species distribution modelling:

CCAFS-http://ccafs-climate.org/

Climate change models-ensemble models?

Climate change scenarios-IPCC

Relative Concentration Pathways:

RCP 2.6-Temperature increase of 1.5˚C

RCP 6.0-Temperature increase of 2.5-3.5˚C

CAPFITOGEN Tools-www.capfitogen.net

Migration scenarios-unlimited migration, no migration

IUCN climate change vulnerability guidelines (https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/SSC-OP-059.pdf)

•Taxa that lose area first

•Taxa that lose the largest

amount of area (relate to

IUCN threat category)

Norwegian 204 priority

CWR

Identifying general

patterns

Predicted taxa richness under RCP 6.0 (3.0˚C)

Taxa richness

a b

c d

a b

d

Predicted taxa richness under RCP 2.6 (1.5˚C)

RCP 6.0

Change in taxa richness

a b

c d

a b

c d

Taxa turnover

What does this shift in species distribution mean

for conservation?

In situ: Facilitate the movement of taxa

– Conserving the ‘core’ of populations (Arajúo et al 2004)

– Reserves in hotspots of future diversity (Heller and Zavaleta 2009). Areas

that become high in species richness.

– Connecting reserves-allows for uncertainities (Halpin 1997)

conservation outside PAs-corridors or stepping stones.

Non-PA habitats critical. (Thomas 2012, Franklin 1992, Lovejoy 2005)

– Some reserves may become more important for taxa

i.e. Dovrefjell.

Core populations

Conserving the ‘core’ of

populations (Arajúo et al

2004)

Refugia

Priority level 1-populations

will be lost from these areas

first

Priority level 2-next areas to

lose populations

Priority level 5-areas where

populations will be

maintained from present to

the year 2080

Core population

Reserves in hotspots of future diversity (Heller and Zavaleta 2009)

Connecting reserves

Needs to be informal PAs and corridors at landscape level (Ramirez Villegas et al 2014, Thomas

2012, Franklin 1992, Lovejoy 2005)

Temperature gradient corridors (Nunez et al 2012)

Migration relies on connectedness of landscape

Connection of patches via a standard cost-distance corridor and a

climate-gradient corridor. Adapted from Nunez et al 2013.

a

b

c

Areas of high topographic

and climate heterogeniety

reduce migration

requirements (Barber et al. 2016,

Zapata and Robledano 2014)

a) Present taxa richness

b) 2080 RCP 2.6 taxa

richness

c) 2080 RCP 6.0 taxa

richness

Increase in taxa richness

across PA

Dovrefjell National

Park

Ex situ conservation

– Leading and trailing edge

populations-the latter tends to

have reduced genetic variation (Foden 2009, Lesica and Allendorf 1995)

– Collect taxa that will lose area

first

– Collections of those to become

threatened or extinct

What does this shift in species distribution mean

for conservation?

Trailing edge

Threatened taxa

• Based upon the IUCN threat categories

• IUCN criterion A3(c): population size reduction

• Change in distribution extent as a proxy for change in population size-an

allowable assumption (following Thuiller et al 2005; Foden and Young 2016)

Threatened taxa

Patterned columns represent RCP 6.0,

non-patterned columns represent RCP

2.6.

VU=Vulnerable, EN=Endangered,

CR=Critically Endangered, EX=Extinct

Number of

threatened taxa

increases

Severity of threat

increases

IUCN Climate

change

vulnerability

assessment (Foden and

Young 2016)

Problems?

Uncertainty in models (Arajuo and Rahbek 2006)

– Land use change

– Habitat fragmentation

– Soil conditions and habitat preferences

Species dispersal abilities and life-histories-need species specific

modelling?

Species that may move into the country-how to model this? Will these

species be classed as invasive/alien?

Brassica rapa

www.plants.usda.gov

The challenges

We will experience the effects of 1.5˚C temp rise!

Both in situ and ex situ conservation are necessary

Conservation needs to be dynamic-landscape

development strategy (Ramirez-villegas et al. 2014)

Monitoring methods-genetic diversity studies

Species specific studies or multi-species models

Plant breeders needs?

References

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expansions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 14063-

14068.

Jarvis A, Lane A, Hijmans RJ (2008a) The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agriculture

Ecosystems & Environment, .

Solomon S (2007) Climate change 2007-the physical science basis: Working group I contribution to the

fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, .

Olesen JE, Bindi M (2002) Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land

use and policy. European Journal of Agronomy, 16, 239-262.

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (2004) Impacts of a warming Arctic.

Hanssen-Bauer I, Drange H, Førland EJ et al. (2009) Klima i Norge 2100. Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU

Klimatilplassing.

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