Climate Change and Climate Change and Environmental Security:Environmental Security:Bringing Realism Back InBringing Realism Back In

Josh GellersJosh GellersPhD Student, Political SciencePhD Student, Political ScienceUniversity of California, IrvineUniversity of California, Irvine

Photo: A. Ishokon (UNEP)

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ThemesThemes

1) Reconcile realism with 1) Reconcile realism with environmental securityenvironmental security

2) Develop theoretical basis for 2) Develop theoretical basis for designating climate change as a designating climate change as a security issuesecurity issue

3) Encourage reconceptualization and 3) Encourage reconceptualization and condensation of “environmental condensation of “environmental security”security”

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Research QuestionResearch Question

Question: Is realism incompatible with Question: Is realism incompatible with environmental security?environmental security?

Argument: Realism can accommodate Argument: Realism can accommodate environmental security by expanding causal environmental security by expanding causal linkageslinkages

Conflict

Civil Unrest

Economic Downturn

Reduced Crop Yield

Climate Change

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Conceptual Conceptual UnderpinningsUnderpinnings ““Redefining Security” or “Securitizing Redefining Security” or “Securitizing

the Environment”the Environment” 1) Political Economy of the 1) Political Economy of the

EnvironmentEnvironment– Mathews (1989), Kahl (2005)Mathews (1989), Kahl (2005)

2) Resource Scarcity2) Resource Scarcity– Homer-Dixon (1994), Maxwell & Reuveny (2000)Homer-Dixon (1994), Maxwell & Reuveny (2000)

3) Human Security3) Human Security– Ogata & Cels (2003), Paris (2001)Ogata & Cels (2003), Paris (2001)

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Existing TypologiesExisting Typologies

Direct v. Indirect Threats (Levy 1995)Direct v. Indirect Threats (Levy 1995)– Direct: Skin cancer from ozone depletionDirect: Skin cancer from ozone depletion– Indirect: Global biodiversity lossIndirect: Global biodiversity loss

Territorial v. Extraterritorial Risks Territorial v. Extraterritorial Risks (Busby 2008)(Busby 2008)– Territorial: Climate change-induced droughtTerritorial: Climate change-induced drought– Extraterritorial: Sea level rise overtaking foreign Extraterritorial: Sea level rise overtaking foreign

military installationsmilitary installations

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Realist ApplicationsRealist Applications

1) Political Economy of the Environment1) Political Economy of the Environment– Ex: Climate change affects agricultural outputEx: Climate change affects agricultural output– Defensive realismDefensive realism

2) Resource Scarcity2) Resource Scarcity– Ex: Climate change causes water shortageEx: Climate change causes water shortage– Offensive realismOffensive realism

3) Human Security3) Human Security– Ex: Climate change-induced sea level rise Ex: Climate change-induced sea level rise

creates environmental refugeescreates environmental refugees– Defensive and offensive realismDefensive and offensive realism

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Research DirectionsResearch Directions

Develop a comprehensive policy approach to Develop a comprehensive policy approach to conceptualizing environment-security relationshipconceptualizing environment-security relationship– Example: Drought in West Africa Caused by Climate Example: Drought in West Africa Caused by Climate

Change and Its U.S. ImpactsChange and Its U.S. Impacts Direct v. Indirect: Direct v. Indirect: IndirectIndirect Territorial v. Extraterritorial: Territorial v. Extraterritorial: ExtraterritorialExtraterritorial Source of Threat: Source of Threat: Foreign DestabilizationForeign Destabilization Threat Severity: Threat Severity: Low/MediumLow/Medium Threat Imminence: Threat Imminence: Likely (20-year time horizon)Likely (20-year time horizon) Sectors/Groups Impacted: Sectors/Groups Impacted: Farmers, Agriculture, GovernmentFarmers, Agriculture, Government Mitigating Resources: Mitigating Resources: Foreign Assistance (USAID)Foreign Assistance (USAID) Environmental Linkage: Environmental Linkage: Drought Drought Refugees Refugees Political Political

Stress in Nearby State Stress in Nearby State Institutional Destabilization Institutional Destabilization Terrorist Group Opportunism Terrorist Group Opportunism Increased Terrorist Activities Increased Terrorist Activities

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Research DirectionsResearch Directions

Disentangle current categorizationsDisentangle current categorizations

Human Security

Environmental Security

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Questions?Questions?