Generously supported by

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLOOD RISK MITIGATION: BUILT AND NATURAL

INFRASTRUCTURE GO “HAND IN HAND”

Dr. Blair Feltmate

Head, Intact Centre

January 25, 2019

2

1. Climate change is real and irreversible

2. Costs of extreme weather are going up

3. Adaptation to flood risk

new flood risk Standards

natural infrastructure and related benefits

4. Discussion/Questions

AGENDA

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HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER

It is extremely likely

that human influence

has been the dominant

cause of the observed

warming since the

mid-20th century

(0.08 oC/decade for

past 100 years)

World Energy Supply

Source: International Energy Agency

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1.2 billion new people

Million Barrels Oil Equiv./Day

* Don’t count on

the Paris Accord

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COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: P&C CATASTROPHIC INSURABLE LOSSES ($CAD)

Courtesy: Insurance Bureau of Canada

Note: Cost to government and homeowners 3-4X that of private insurers.

Growing Uninsurable Housing Market in Canada

(primarily due to basement flooding)

Loss + Loss Adjustment Expenses $2017 - total natural-catastrophe losses normalized by inflation and per-capita wealth accumulation

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

$ B

illi

on

Eastern Ice Storm

Ontario Wind and Rain

Alberta and Toronto Floods

Fort McMurray Fire

Quebec Floods

COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: P&C CATASTROPHIC INSURABLE LOSSES (ONTARIO)

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Residential/Basement Flooding is the No.1 Factor Affecting this Trend in Ontario

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EXTREME

PRECIPITATION

Percent change in the

amount of precipitation

falling in very heavy

events (the heaviest

1%) from 1958 to 2012.

SOURCE: US National

Climate Assessment

CHANGES IN VERY HEAVY PRECIPITATION: 1958 - 2012

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MENTAL AND PHYSICAL HEALTH IMPACTS OF BASEMENT FLOODING

“It’s something you never want to experience again in your life”

Average time off work following basement flood – 7.1 days

(basement flooding now attracting attention of Life & Health Insurers)

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Non-Flooded Respondents (n=37)

Flooded Respondents (n=48)

% of Respondents Who Gave a 4 or 5 on a Scale of 1-5 (1= not worried, 5 = very worried)

Three Years After A Flood: Responses to "How Worried Do You Get When it Rains?"

FAMILY OF FLOOD ADAPTATION GUIDELINES – DEVELOPED MOSTLY IN ONTARIO

New Standards Supported by:

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Commercial Real

Estate Flood

Guideline

Homes - Flood Protection Guideline

New Community Design Standard

Existing Community Retrofits Guideline

Commercial Real Estate Retrofits Guideline

… and experts across

Canada, who contribute to

research and standards

development…

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9,000 Home Inspectors in

Ontario & 40,000 nationally

HOME FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT COURSE Live, September 2018 – Online, March 2019

Beta Test Cohort – Seneca College Toronto (Sept. 2018)

Next – insurance brokers, real estate

agents, mortgage brokers

Online

10 SIMPLE

WAYS TO

LOWER

BASEMENT

FLOOD

RISK

a

b

c

d

e

f

g

h

i

j

P&C INSURANCE INCENTIVES FOR FLOOD RISK REDUCTION

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"Water damage is now the leading cause of personal property

claims. Over the last 10 years, water losses for personal

property claims have doubled to 40% (of $ paid in losses).

There are a number of improvements that Canadians can take

to better protect their homes and communities against water

damage. By taking these steps, Canadians could lower

their annual premiums - anywhere from 5 to 15%. Those

who live in municipalities who make climate resilient

infrastructure a priority could also benefit from more affordable

premiums, higher coverage limits and enhanced insurance

coverage.”

Intact Financial Corporation, 2017

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Utilizing Natural Infrastructure for Climate Adaptation

Intact Centre study found that keeping

wetlands intact can reduce flood damage

costs to buildings by up to 38%

Framework developed to quantify other

economic benefits of Natural

Infrastructure - drought reduction, water

quality improvement (limit phosphorous

loading), retain biodiversity, retain

aesthetics

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GENERAL “RULE OF THUMB” FOR NATURAL INFRASTRUCTURE

In order of preference, the most

cost-effective means to utilize

natural infrastructure for climate

adaptation is to:

1. retain what you have

2. restore what you’ve lost

3. build what you must

DISCUSSION 16

1. Extreme weather and flood risk will get more challenging

2. Canada is preparing for flooding through new Standards

3. Canada needs to focus on retaining/restoring natural infrastructure

retain what we have

rebuild what you have lost

build what you must

4. Role of “natural infrastructure” should be taught as part of Municipal

Planning and Civil Engineering:

limit flood/drought risk

limit impacts to receiving water bodies

support biodiversity

Support aesthetics