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، خان ريغ تءا خ ا ن ر يغ ب ة ي ن ة ي ل د ل ة ي م وك ة ئ ي ه ل ا ر غ ب ة ة ل د ل ة م و ة ئ ل ة ئ ي ه ل ع ا ص ل ة س ا ل ة ي ن ف ل ة ق و ل ة ا ع ل ة م ظ ن ة ي و د ا ص ر ل مانر بةئل د

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    Bryson Bates

    )CSIRO(

    Shaohung Wu

    Zbigniew W.Kundzewicz

    Jean Palutikof

    .

    .

    / 2008

    )IPCC(

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    :

    Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and J.P. Palutikof, Eds., 2008: Climate Change and Water.Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.

    ISBN: 9784-123-9169-92- 2008, Intergovernmental Panel on Cbinate change

    : Simon Fraser/Science Photo Library

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    iii

    vii viii 1 5 - 17 1.1 7 1.2 8 - : 1.3 8 1.3.1

    10 1.3.2 11 1.4 13 -215 2.1 15 ) ) 2.1.1 19 2.1.2 20 2.1.3 21 - 2.1.4 22 2.1.5 22 2.1.6 22 2.1.7

    24 2.2 24 2.2.1 24 2.2.2 25 2.2.3 25 2.3 26 ) ) 2.3.1 29 2.3.2 29 2.3.3 30 2.3.4 31 2.3.5 31 2.3.6

    32 2.3.7 33 : -335 3.1 35 3.1.1 35 3.1.2 40 3.2 40 3.2.1 44 3.2.2 45 3.2.3 45 3.2.4

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    iv

    46 3.2.5 46 - 3.2.6 48 3.2.7 48 3.2.8 50 : 3.355 -4

    57 4.157 4.1.1 57 4.1.2 58 4.1.3 61 4.261 4.2.1 63 4.2.2 63 4.2.3 67 4.2.4 71 4.371 4.3.1

    72 4.3.2 73 4.3.3 73 4.3.4 73 4.473 4.4.1 73 4.4.2 73 4.4.3 75 4.4.4 77 4.577 4.5.1 77 4.5.2

    78 4.5.3 79 : 4.679 4.6.1 79 4.6.2 81 -583 5.183 5.1.1 84 5.1.2 87 5.1.3 89 5.1.4 90 5.2

    90 5.2.1 90 5.2.2 92 5.2.3 93 5.2.4 95 5.395 5.3.1 96 5.3.2 96 5.3.3 98 5.3.4 98 5.4

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    v

    98 5.4.1 98 5.4.2 99 5.4.3 101 5.4.4 102 5.5 102 5.5.1

    102 5.5.2 104 5.5.3 106 5.5.4 108 5.6 108 5.6.1 108 5.6.2 111 5.6.3 113 5.7 113 5.7.1 113 5.7.2 114 5.7.3

    115 5.7.4 116 5.8 116 5.8.1 116 5.8.2 119 5.8.3 123 -6125 6.1 125 6.2 125 )CCS( 6.2.1 125 6.2.2 127 6.2.3

    127 6.2.4 127 6.2.5 128 6.2.6 128 6.2.7 128 ( ( 6.2.8 129 ) ( 6.2.9 129 6.2.10 130 6.2.11/ 130 6.2.12 130 6.2.13 130 6.3

    131 6.3.1 132 6.3.2 132 6.3.3 132 6.3.4 132 6.3.5 133 6.3.6 133 6.3.7 133 6.4 135 -7137 7.1

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    vi

    139 7.2141 7.3141 7.4143 -8145 8.1145 8.2

    145 8.2.1 146 8.2.2 146 8.3149 175 : 177 : 197 : 199 : 201 : 205 : 207

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    vii

    )IPCC( )WCP-Water( .2002 / 2002 /

    . . )IPCC(

    .

    . . -

    . . .

    .

    . )IPCC(

    // . )IPCC(

    .

    / .2008 .

    .

    ( ) . )Jean Palutikof(

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    Rajendra K. Pachauri)IPCC(

    Renate Christ

    )IPCC(

    Martin Parry

    )IPCC(

    Osvaldo Canziani

    )IPCC(

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    viii

    )Norah Pritchard( . )Clair Hanson(

    )Terry Prowse( .

    Bill( )Maurice Roos( . )Manitoba Hydro( )Girling

    . )Nancy Boston( )Marilyn Anderson(

    .

    2008 / 23 Bryson BatesZbyszek Kundzewicz

    Shaohong WuJan Palutikof

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    ix

    Bryson Bates )Australia(, Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz )Poland( and Shaohong Wu )China(

    Nigel Arnell )UK(, Virginia Burkett )USA(, Petra Dll )Germany(, Daniel Gwary )Nigeria(, Clair Hanson )UK(, BertJan Heij )The Netherlands(, Blanca Elena Jimnez )Mexico(, Georg Kaser )Austria(, Akio Kitoh )Japan(, Sari Kovats )UK(,Pushpam Kumar )UK(, Christopher H.D. Magadza )Zimbabwe(, Daniel Martino )Uruguay(, Luis Jos Mata )Germany/Venezuela(, Mahmoud Medany )Egypt(, Kathleen Miller )USA(, Taikan Oki )Japan(, Balgis Osman )Sudan(, Jean Palutikof)UK(, Terry Prowse )Canada(, Roger Pulwarty )USA(, Trinidad and Tobago(, Jouni Risnen )Finland(, James Renwick

    )New Zealand(, Francesco Nicola Tubiello )USA/IIASA/Italy(, Richard Wood )UK( and Zong-Ci Zhao )China(

    Julie Arblaster )Australia(, Richard Betts )UK(, Aiguo Dai )USA(, Christopher Milly )USA(, Linda Mortsch )Canada(,

    Leonard Nurse )Barbados(, Richard Payne )Australia(, Iwona Pinkswar )Poland( and Tom Wilbanks )USA(

    . )WCP-Water(

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