Climate Change, Conservation and What You Can Do to Secure ... · PRBO Conservation Science Central Valley- O’Conner Lakes Project Flow: about 65,000 cfs 4 January 2006 RESULTS:

Climate Change, Conservation and What You Can Do to Secure Our Future - Marin CountyEllie M. Cohen and PRBO Staff March 5, 2009Marin Master Gardeners and Environmental Forum of Marin

PRBO Conservation Science

Study birds and ecosystems to improve conservation outcomes

• Founded in 1965 as Pt Reyes Bird Observatory

• 120 staff and seasonal biologists

SF Bay Research Center/HeadquartersPetaluma Wetlands, Petaluma, CA. www.prbo.org


Birds: Nature’s “S&P 500”Indicators of Ecosystem Health

Brown Pelicans


CHALLENGE: Environmental Change

Tuna

Matt JalbertCLIMATE CHANGE


Talk Outline

1. Latest climate change findings

2. Projections for climate and birds in California and Marin County

3. Adaptive conservation strategies to address rapid climate change

4. What you can do!


0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

300

500

400

600

180200220240260280

Temp. in F°

CO

2 Concentration

Today’s CO2 Concentration ~388 ppm

CO

2[p

pmv]

600,000 100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000

300

400

180200220

240

260280

Temp. in C

°

1 -0 -

-2 --3 -

2 -

-4 -

-1 -

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000Age (yr BP)

300

500

400

600

180

200

220

240

260

280

Temp. in C

°C

O2 C

oncentration

After 40 More Years of current energy use patterns- 600 ppmC

O2

[ppm

v]

1 -0 --1 --2 --3 -

2 -

-4 -

Today’s CO2 Concentration ~388 ppm


CO2 into Atmosphere

www.globalcarbonproject.org Sept. 2008

• ~4x greater than 1990s

• Exceeds IPCC worst case

Data Source: G. Marland, T.A. Boden, R.J. Andres, and J. Gregg at CDIAC


Jet streams moving poleward 1979-2001= major ∆’s storm, precipitation patterns

Archer & Caldera, Geophysical Research Letters, April 2008


Steig, et al, Nature 457, 459-462 Jan 22 2009

“State of Polar Research” Feb 25, 2009World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Intl. Council for Science (ICSU )

\

• +0.6º C past 50 yrs

• Wilkin’s Ice Shelf breaking up now

Antarctica – significant warming beyond Peninsula

Ice Sheets Melting Faster– both polar regions


Sea Level Rise

Grinsted, A., J. C. Moore, and S. JevrejevaClimate Dynamics, Jan. 6, 2009

-Already >2x fasterthan IPCC 2007 predictions(www.climateinstitute.org.au)

-New estimate: Up to 1.3 m (4.3 ft) by 2100 (A1B scenario- middle of road)

www.glaciology.net/Home


Ocean Acidification

Richard Feely, NOAA., Jan 2009


Photo: Tom Van Sant- The Climate Project

American West temperatures –rising 2x faster than rest of world(www.rockymountainclimate.org, March 2008)


Trees in West dying 2x faster

over recent decadesMantgem, et al, Science, Vol. 323. no. 5913, Jan. 23, 2009


Mega-drought, other abrupt change projected

Abrupt Climate ChangeFinal Report, Dec. 2008

US Climate Change Science Programwww.climatescience.gov

“…models project a permanent drying by the mid-21st century… a quarter of the

projections may reach this level of aridity much earlier. “


Wildlife already impacted

Edith’s Bay Checkerspot

Pika or Rock Rabbit


Drought = Reduced or No Breeding

–Sonoran Desert

Chrissal Thrasher

PhainopeplaChris McCreedy www.prbo.org


Changes in Arrival Dates

~ 2/3 central CA songbirds have changes in spring and fall arrival dates

Mismatch in timing between birds and food?

MacMynowski et al., Global Change Biology, 2007 Grant Ballard www.prbo.org

Western Kingbird

Barn Swallow

Black-headed Grosbeak


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Mean productivity = 0.67

Increased ocean extremes & seabird breeding failure

Cassin’s AukletFarallon National Wildlife Refuge


Extreme heat = nest abandonment & mortality, May 15-16, 2008

•BRCO → rockfish & anchovies → krill– lag effect- asynchronous breeding?

Brandt’s Cormorants on Alcatraz Island


Future of Salmon in CA?

“Salmon season called off in bid to save chinook”April 11, 2008

“Smallest fall run of chinook salmon reported”February 19, 2009

San Francisco Chronicle

Krill



Temperature ~3º C (5.4º F) by 2080 in Marin

•40-km resolution regional climate model (Snyder et al. 2002) •averaged for the years 2080-2099 •Based on NCAR model, moderate emissions scenario, similar to IPCC A1B

www prbo org/cadc


Extremes: Flooding, Drought, Fire, Heat

See: CA Climate Change Center www.climatechange.ca.gov

San Anselmo, CA Jan. 1,2006


Sea Level Rise, Storm Surges

(video shows 20 feet)The Climate Project


Novato: 1 meter (3.3 ft.) sea level rise

http://flood.firetree.net/?ll=38.0167,-122.1803&z=7&m=2


Central Marin: 1 meter (3.3 ft.) sea level rise

http://flood.firetree.net/


Central Marin: 4 meters (~13 ft.) sea level rise

http://flood.firetree.netgoogle


Identified hotspots of change

• Greatest increases blue• Greatest losses in red

Where will bird #’s be higher or lower by 2080 in CA?

•Averaged over 2 climate models and 2 distribution models•Data for 60 focal land bird species (CA Partners in Flight) representing 5 habitats (scrub, oak, conifer, riparian, grassland)

Source: PRBO, Stralberg et al., unpublishedSource: PRBO, Stralberg et al., unpublished


# of birds spp. to increase in Marin

Marin County

-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

all

grass

conifer

oak

scrub

riparian

Change in Species Richness Index

Oak, conifer and scrub associated bird spp. projected to increase

but… which ones?

Source: PRBO, Howell, Stralberg et al., unpublisheSource: PRBO, Howell, Stralberg et al., unpublishe


Acorn Woodpecker: negative response to projected increase in rainfall variability in Marin County

What does this tell us about oak woodlands? Need more

information….

PRBO Conservation ScienceOak Titmouse: positive response to projected increase temperatures in Marin County

Two oak woodland associated bird species but different responses to changing

conditions….


What will future bird communities look like?

Diana Stralberg, et. al., in preparation, not for distribution, www.PRBO.org

•Data from 60 land bird focal species•Assumes all exist 60 years from now •Combined with temperature, precipitation and vegetation variables •From IPCC moderate climate scenarios

Exceeding IPCC worst-case scenarios nowMore warming in pipelineSigns of mega-drought

Species extinctions and ecological community changes inevitable

By 2070: High % of completely different bird communities than today


Photo by Ellie Cohen, PRBO


Shift to a new conservation paradigm

ESA--Endangered Species Act--powerful tool of 20th century

Need new statutes, regulations to address rapid ecological change in 21st Century

Ecosystem Services ActEcosystem Services ActHealthy Ecosystems Act


Start managing for rapid change now

Photo by John Wiens, Tolay Creek/Tubbs Island, San Pablo NWR

MANAGE FOR ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION and SERVICESRevise regulations, management plans, protocols as needed


Employ Adaptive Conservation Strategies

Design/Recommend Actions

Conservation Plans, Predictive Models, Web-based Tools, Partnerships, etc.

Design/Recommend Actions

Conservation Plans, Predictive Models, Web-based Tools, Partnerships, etc.

Feedbac

k

Feedbac

k Loop

Loop

MonitorAt project level, indicators

MonitorAt project level, indicators

ImplementImplement

ModifyModify

Evaluate Evaluate

Williams et al. 2007. Department of Interior Adaptive Management Technical Guide

Elliott, et., al., Adaptive Conservation Strategies Guide, 2003 www.prbo.org

Identify/ Reassess threats, problemsIdentify/ Reassess threats, problems


past future

Ecos

yste

m s

tate

Plan for extremes, wider range of variability

e.g. plan for mega-drought, 1000+ yr flood and other scenariosNat Seavy

www.prbo.org

Prioritize projects that

could succeed under multiple

scenarios


Enhance ecosystem response to change

• Promote natural processes • Flooding• Fire• Remove levees for tidal

exposure

• Maximize heterogeneity, adaptive variation• conserve ecotones,

gradients

Millar et al. 2007; Seavy et al, www.PRBO.org unpublished; Tom Smith, UCLA


Cosumnes Preserve

Significantly expand riparian restoration

Yellow Warbler

Grosholz, T., et al, UC Davis

Ecosystem “Services”:

• Retain water, soil moisture• Replenish groundwater • Reduce flood damage

• Provide wildlife corridors

• Sustain biodiversity

• Nourish upland habitat

• Provide thermal refugia


Plan restorations for an unpredictable hydrograph

Nat Seavywww.prbo.org


Cool

Warm

Wet Dry

Nat Seavywww.prbo.org

Plant for genetic diversity in restoration


Central Valley- O’Conner Lakes Project

Flow: about 65,000 cfs

4 January 2006

RESULTS: Re-vegetation, increased biodiversity, replenished ground water and conveyed flood waters

River Partners with:• CA Dept of Fish & Game• CA Parks & Recreation• PRBO Conservation Science• The Nature Conservancy• U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service


Gale Ranch, Marin County RCD

Expand connectivity now: Actively partner with adjacent landowners -- public and private


Gale Ranch, Marin County RCD

Results: biodiversity, response to change


Design to maximize ecosystem function and services

North SF Bay ~50k Acres of Wetland RestorationNapa Sonoma Marsh Restoration, Ponds 2, 2a, 3, Larry Wyckoff, CDFG

Ecosystem “services”:

• Sequester carbon• Reduce flood impacts• Reduce sea level rise impacts• Sustain biodiversity• Filter out pollutants

Expedite tidal wetland restorations, prioritize connectivity to upland habitats


Identify future wetlands, uplands for protection

Northern SF Bay DeltaAssumptions:•1 m sea level rise• no sediment accretion

Stralberg, D., et al, PRBO, 2009

Salt Marsh Common Yellowthroat


Invasive Non-Natives

Noxious Invasives = Biodiversity, Response


No time to lose

“The longer action is delayed, the more it will cost.”

IPCC 4th Assessment Final report, November, 2007

--------------------------------

Stop greenhouse gas pollution and

make adaptive ecosystem conservation an equal priority now!


What you can do!

Speak out – family, friends, co-workers, neighbors, elected officials!


Reduce your carbon footprint!

PRBO Conservation ScienceCalculate your Carbon Footprintwww.coolcalifornia.org



CAUTION: must assess ecological impacts of large scale solar, wind, wave energy; ensure net benefits


Recycle, Reuse, Use Less!

• Repair - rather than dispose and buy new• Refill - same container can be use more than once • Drink filtered water, don’t buy bottled water• Refuse extra packaging• Don’t buy throwaway items • Rent - if you only need the item rarely


Compost kitchen and garden waste

www.composters.com/docs/tips.htmlwww.sustainabletable.org/features/articles/vermicomposting/


Monkey Flower

Restore native habitat- good for birds, ecosystems and us!

• Plant a diversity of native plants

• Create diverse vegetation structure with plants at various heights- most songbirds nest in the understory and midstory

• Limit disturbances during bird breeding season (March -July)--restoration, mowing, spraying, disking, and brush clearing

• Never plant eucalyptus, ivy, Scotch or French broom, Pampass grass, Johnson grass

• Keep cats indoors! www.prbo.org/cms/183


Diversity of plant species used for nesting, Marin Co. (421 nests) www.prbo.org/cms/183

red alder19%

California blackberry27%

other15%

Willow12% sword fern

5% California bay3%

box elder3%

lady fern3%

grass2%

Cape-ivy4%

Oregon ash2%

red elderberry3%

Himalayan blackberry3%

Native habitat- for nesting birds in Marin


Buy local, organic foods; Plant your own vegetable gardens!

San Dominico SchoolGarden of Hope

Sustainable Practices


Plant a rain garden- slow flooding, recharge ground water, buffer drought

Occidental Arts and Ecology CenterBrock Dolman


Run On-- not Run Off permeable surface parking, streets--

filter out non-point source pollutants, reduce flooding, recharge groundwater.….

Brock Dolman. Occidental Arts & Ecology Center www.oaec.org


Capture roof rainwater and greywater

www.oaec.org/water-institute/

www.greywateralliance.org, www.watersprout.org


Support local restoration & conservation efforts!


A new era… full of opportunity!!


In summary….

1. Climate change is accelerating rapidly

2. Requires a new conservation paradigm at all levels- e.g., test new approaches, be flexible

3. Prioritize ecosystem function and services

4. Plan for extremes, anticipate abrupt changes, accept there will be losses

5. Think globally, act locally and… in our gardens!


THANK YOU!

PRBO File Photo


Many thanks to:

PRBO staff, Board, members, and:American Bird ConservancyS.D. Bechtel, Jr. Foundation

Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Land Management

California Coastal ConservancyCalifornia Department of Fish and Game

California Department of Water ResourcesCalifornia Bay Delta Authority

California AudubonCalifornia Seagrant

Central Valley Joint VentureCornell Lab of Ornithology

DMARLOU FoundationRichard Grand Foundation

Marin Municipal Water DistrictGiles Mead Foundation

Moore Family Foundation/Gordon & Betty Moore FoundationDavid and Lucile Packard FoundationNational Fish and Wildlife Foundation

National Park ServiceNational Science Foundation

NOAA Fisheries, Marine SanctuariesNatural Resource Conservation Service

Resources Law Group/Resources Legacy Fund FoundationRiparian Habitat Joint Venture

San Francisco Bay Joint VentureThe Climate Project

The Nature ConservancyU.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

US Geological SurveyUSDA Forest Service

Documents

Climate Change, Conservation and What You Can Do to Secure ... · PRBO Conservation Science Central Valley- O’Conner Lakes Project Flow: about 65,000 cfs 4 January 2006 RESULTS: