Climate Change, Mitigation and Adaptation and Key Pastoral

Resource Management in Pastoral Areas

Daniel Temesgen (PhD) 15-16 Nov 2011 Adama

Climate change manifests itself through: • Changes in average climatic conditions. For

example, some regions may become drier or wetter on average

• Changes in climate variability : rainfall & Temperature variation

• Changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events .

• Changes in sea levels

• Emissions of greenhouse gas from human activities are a significant driver of climate change, and that climate change poses a threat to current development.

• The Focus on limiting greenhouse gas emissions associated with human activity, particularly the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas.

• Collective evidence suggests that the observed changes over the past fifty years can be mostly attributed to human activities.

• The warming trend in the global average surface temperature is expected to increases in the range of 1.4 to 5.8 ºC by 2100 in comparison to 1990 (IPCC 2001a).

• There has been a general trend of

atmospheric warming in Ethiopia. According to the National Meteorological Agency (NMA, 2007) the average minimum temperature in Ethiopia has been increasing by 0.37ºC per decade in the last sixty years.

• In the Ethiopian highland, the temperature has been increasing by 0.3ºC per decade (Muna, 2006).

• In the southern lowland regions of Borena, Guji and South Omo temperature has increased by 0.4ºC per decade in the period 1950-2000

• the temperature increase in the lowland regions has been much faster with bigger implications.

• Coupled with declining and unreliable patterns in the rainfall, increasing temperatures in pastoral regions will exacerbate the water and feed shortages thus making the environment more and more vulnerable to increased aridity and degradations.

An analysis of the average annual rainfall trends in the past four or five decades in Ethiopia shows a more or less constant trend (NMA, 2007).

• However, an increasing trend of rainfall was observed in central Ethiopia

• an overall declining trend was recorded in the water stressed northern and southern lowland regions.

• changes in the seasonality, distribution and regularity of rainfall than the overall amount of rainfall.

• The main rainy season is also seen as becoming progressively shorter –

• it starts later and finishes earlier than it used to be – and the rains in general are becoming more unpredictable.

• Of all the environmental and socio-economic shocks and stressors drought is the most common adversely impacted sustainable livelihoods of pastoralists.

• The eastern lowlands of Ethiopia are vulnerable to drought and there have been notable droughts in this part of the country throughout human history

• Previous droughts and the frequency of rainfall deviation from the average suggest that drought occur every 3-5 years in the ;low land regions of Ethiopia

• every 8-10 years for the whole country (Haile 1988, 90).

• In recent years, flood hazards in Ethiopia have become more frequent and of increasing severity.

• For instance, floods in 2006 have battered huge portions of eastern, southern and northern Ethiopia.

• Floods that have also occurred in 2007 and 2008 have caused huge havoc on the livelihoods of many rural people.

• recent changes in the climate system have

brought about rapid changes which have affected natural resources,

• Although there are many other potential drivers

the contribution of changing weather patterns (such as more frequent droughts, increasing temperatures, and shortening rainy seasons that prevent grass growth and propagation) could be significant

• The decline in the amount of rainfall, the erratic nature of the rains and even the failure of the main or short rainy seasons, aggravated by climate change, is creating serious water shortage and stress

• Climate change is expected to affect disease and

pest distribution, range, prevalence, incidence and seasonality but the degree of change remains highly uncertain .

• through changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind patterns

• Heat stress and drought are likely to have further negative impacts on animal and human health and disease resistance

• Drought • Declining rangeland is reducing the amount

and quality of feed • Less water is making the situation more

difficult. • Lead to Animals venerability to endemic and

newly emerging varieties of animal diseases, which can be linked to the changing climate and the extreme weather conditions

• Mitigation is tackling climate change by limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

• Vulnerability: the degree to which a system is susceptible to,

and unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes

• It is dependent on a wide variety of institutional, economic

and environmental factors, not all of which are linked directly with the climate

• The ability to respond and adjust to actual or potential impacts of changing climate conditions in ways that moderate harm or take advantage of any positive opportunities that the climate may afford.

• Adaptation is about reducing the risks posed by climate change to people’s lives and livelihoods.

• Adaptation is a broad concept covering actions by individuals, communities, private companies and public bodies such as governments.

• Successful adaptation can reduce vulnerability by building on and strengthening existing coping mechanisms and assets, targeting climate change vulnerability with specific measures, and integrating vulnerability reduction into wider policies

• A serious disruption of the functioning of a community or a society involving widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses and impacts, which exceeds the ability of the affected community or society to cope using its own resources.

• The concept and practice of reducing disaster risks through systematic efforts to analyze and manage the causal factors of disasters, including through reduced exposure to hazards ,lessened vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improved preparedness for adverse events.

• The ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions.

• Mismanagement in natural resource contributes to the

vulnerability of human systems to disaster, and that enhanced management can provide a tool for vulnerability reduction.

• conservation of particular natural systems will in many

circumstances offer adaptation opportunities. • A range of the tools for implementing effective

management of natural areas have been developed are available.

• Today, there are two main disciplines

concerned with human vulnerability to climate extremes –those of climate change and disaster management.

• Disaster risk and climate change reinforce each

other. • Disaster risk is an intrinsic characteristic of

human society, arising from the combination of natural and human factors and subject to exacerbation or reduction by human agency.

• While the adverse impacts of climate change on

society may increase disaster risk, disasters themselves erode environmental and social resilience, and thus increase vulnerability to climate change..

• Recognition of the linkages between climate

variability, climate change, and extreme events has fostered a small but growing literature on the connections between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. This literature shows that there is a great potential for coordinated efforts towards addressing adaptation. The disaster risk community

• .

• Advocates using the tools, methods and policies of disaster risk reduction as a basis for addressing the risk aspects of climate change. Methodologies and experiences in working with vulnerable people and their needs through community-based initiatives are emerging as a cornerstone for disaster risk reduction

• At the same time, the climate change community offers a growing body of research and experience on adaptation as a social process, with an emphasis on strategies and measures to reduce vulnerability and enhance the capacity to adapt to shocks and stressors.

• This includes initiatives aimed at building resilience through community-based adaptation.

• Given these overlapping areas of expertise and empirical experience, there have been numerous calls for increased collaboration between the two communities.

• strategies for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have until now evolved largely in isolation from each other through different conceptual and institutional frameworks

• The disaster risk management community has gone through various paradigm shifts since the early 1970s.

• Throughout these stages the “disaster” or humanitarian community has refined its practical and conceptual approach from managing disasters by addressing the hazards, to understanding and addressing the underlying factors and vulnerabilities that turn hazards into disasters, culminating in the disaster risk reduction framework.

• Climate change adaptation has a somewhat shorter history, emerging in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) signed in 1992. However, the UNFCCC and the Kyoto protocol predominantly addressed 18 climate change mitigation and policies and measures to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases.

• Recently that adaptation came to the forefront as a key

concern within the UNFCCC.109 The possibilities for Least Developed Countries to develop National Adaptation Programmes of Actions (NAPAs) and the Nairobi Work Program—a 5- year (2005-2010) initiative under the UNFCCC,110 were important first steps towards both enhancing the understanding communities of adaptation and catalyzing action on adaptation

• The Bali Action Plan (BAP), agreed upon at the In the BAP, risk management and disaster risk reduction are identified as important elements of climate change adaptation.

• Further, the BAP emphasizes the importance of “building on synergies among activities and processes, as a means to support adaptation in a coherent and integrated manner.”

• comprehensive formal scientific assessment has been undertaken yet of the research findings and empirically based activities that are emerging from the two

• Climate change will compound existing poverty. Its adverse impacts will be most striking in the developing nations because of their geographical and climatic conditions, their high dependence on natural resources, and their limited capacity to adapt to a changing climate.

• Within these countries, the poorest, who have the least resources and the least capacity to adapt, are the most vulnerable.

• Projected changes in the incidence, frequency, intensity, and duration of climate extremes (for example, heat waves, heavy precipitation, and drought), as well as more gradual changes in the average climate, will notably threaten their livelihoods – further increasing inequities between the developing and developed worlds.

• Climate change is therefore a serious threat to poverty eradication. However, current development strategies tend to overlook climate change risks.

• Developing adaptive capacity to minimize the damage to livelihoods from climate change is a necessary strategy to complement climate change mitigation efforts. Climate change adaptation – all those responses to climatic conditions that reduce vulnerability – is therefore an integral and urgent part of overall poverty reduction strategies.

• Adaptation should not be approached as a separate activity, isolated from other environmental and socioeconomic concerns that also impact on the development opportunities of the poor. A comprehensive approach is needed that takes into account potential synergistic and antagonistic effects between local and global environmental changes as well as socioeconomic factors.

Changes in mean climate, variability, extreme events

Impact on poverty

Increased temperature and changes in precipitation reduce agricultural and natural resources.

Lowered output and labour productivity, high inequality, impacts on trade, and fiscal and macro-economic lead to reduced economic growth, and poverty- reducing effects

Change in precipitation, run-off and variability leads to greater water stress.

Reduced productivity and security of poor people’s livelihood assets, and reduced access for the poor to their livelihood assets

Increased incidence or intensity of climate related disasters leads to damage to assets and infrastructure

Less effective coping strategies among the poor, and increased vulnerability of poor people

Temperature, water and vegetation changes contribute to increased prevalence of disease

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