Climate Change Impact on Egypt and the National Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

ByKhaled Kheireldin, Ph.D., PE

Director of Climate Change Research InstituteMinsitry of Water Resources and Irrigation

Egypt

Climate Change

• Climate is the average weather includes temperature, precipitation (rain or snow), humidity, wind and seasons

• When climate history is no longer a reliable predictor of the future, we experience a climate change

Global Warming of Climate

• Warming of the climate is definitely occurring and can be observed by the:

– Increases in global sea and air temperatures

– Widespread melting of snow and ice

– Rising global sea level

The land-ocean temperature index combines data on air temperatures over land with data on sea surface temperatures. (“Mean” is the midpoint between the highest and lowest.) The black line shows the annual changes; the red line tracks 5-year periods. Source: NASA Goddard institute for Space Studies. (January 11, 2008)

Precipitation form, timing and quantity

Sea level rise

Air temperature

Impacts of Climate Change

• City of Alexandria from 1957 to 2011

http://www.tutiempo.netمصدر البیانات الموقع االلكتروني

y = -0.1405x + 317.87

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Evidence of Climate Change in Egypt

Port Said City at the Entrance of Suez Canal

http://www.tutiempo.netمصدر البیانات الموقع االلكتروني

y = -0.0907x + 196.46

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Land Sunsidence

Global Warming Causes Snow Melting

SLR

Land Subsidence

SLR

Soil Consolidation due to Gas and Oil Extraction

Vulnerabilities Sectors and Zones

1- Most vulnerable sectors to climate change are:

1)Coastal Zones

2) Water Resources

3) Agriculture (14% of GDP)

2- Most Vulnerable Areas:

• Delta Area: Most Populated Area

• 40 Million are living in Nile Delta

• Coastal Zones (Mediterranean and

• Red Sea Coasts)

• Upper Nile Plateau

Approach for Studying the Impact of Climate Change on Egypt

Impact of Climate Change on the Different Sectors in

Egypt

Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Sector

Inflow to High Aswan Dam

المسیسبي

جریجالفا

ارینوكو

امازون

سایو فرانسیسكو

النیجرفولتا

السنغال

سبو ملویة

الراین

النیل

شط العرب

اندوس

كرشنا جودافاري

ماھانادي

ججان

ماحاكام

میكونج شایو فرایا

زوجیانج رید

شانج جیانج

◌Significant Impact

High Level Impact

Moderate Impact

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector

Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Resources Sector (cont’d)

Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities,

economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar,

New Damietta City and Gamasa

land affected by highlevels of groundwater until 2100

Cultivated land affected by highlevels of groundwater until 2100

Adaptation

• The UNFCCC defines it as actions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climate condition

• The IPCC describes it as adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities

Elements of adaptation

• Observation

• Assessment

• Planning

• Implementation

• Monitoring and Evaluation

Observation&

Assessment

Certain & Un-Certain Future Challenges Facing WR in Egypt

20

•

2015 2025 2050 2075 2100

Estimated Rise in mean air Temperature (oC) -- 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.5

Estimated % change in mean ETo & Water Requirements -- 4 % 8 % 13 % 18 %

Estimated Population (million) -- 104 145 191 237

Estimated % change in Nile Flows Drying Scenario -- %6 - %15 - %20 - %31 -

Estimated % change in Nile Flows Wetting Scenario -- %10+ %21+ %24+ %27+

Rough Estimate of Reduction (Bil m3/yr) 3 5 8 10.5 13

Sea Level Rise 0.1-.22 .24-.5 0.4-.8 .5-.95

-Since we do not know what climate scenario would prevail in future, there will be

UNERTAINTY in the developed adaptation strategy.

-To Reduce this UnCertainty, we will considerd two average Scenarios:

1- An average range for the Wetting Nile flow scenarios ( + 27% for 2100) , and

2- An average one for the Drying Nile flow scenarios ( - 31% for 2100)

- Therefore Two Sets of estimated Future Water Budget Trends ( 2025, 2050, 2075 & 2100)

are developed (one for the Drying scenario and one for the Wetting Scenario)

MhmdNour: – Mainstreaming CC Adaptation Strategy

Assessment

- Future Population are based on those of the Water Holding Company

- Do not expect Increase in Nile Flows in the near future, situation my improve in future

- Transbounday are based on very little information

- Deep GW is non-renewable and has limitations

- Rainfall Harvesting has relatively little contribution

- Desalination will have a significant role w.r.t .drinking water

- Shallow GW in the Delta is renewable & related to Nile flow and irrigation efficiency

- Agricultural Drainage Re-Use is related to Irrigation efficiency and Nile Flows

- Treated Waste Water will have increased contribution with increased municipal allocation

- Drainage Water disposal to Sea is related to water availability but a must for salt balance

- Sea Water Agriculture is still in research stage and is promising should have more attention

- Water Quality: It is assumed that all possible measures will be taken to protect water bodies

Main Simplifying Assumptions used in developing these trends

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2050 Dry (-15%) 2050 Wet (21%)

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Drinking (FreshWater Only)

Industry Agriculture(Adjusted)

Drainage toSea

Evap. Losses Env. Balance Total WaterUsage or

Allocation

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Planning

Risks to Egypt Water Security

• R1: Drought and Water Scarcity

• R2: Floods

• R3: High Water Consumption

• R4: Sea Level Rise

•Each of these Risks has its Consequences

•Adaptation Measures are Defined & Classified for these Consequences

Adaptation Measures are Defined for the Consequences & Classified according to :

•Category : (Infra-structure, Managerial, or Technical)

•Scale and Size: (Regional, National , or Local)

•Technical Feasibility: (Low, Moderate, or High)

•Adaptive Capacity: (Low, Moderate, or High)

•Potential Cost: (Low, Moderate, or High)

•Time Span: (Short, Medium, or Long)

•Response: (Proactive, or Reactive) , and

•Regret: (Low regret, No regret, or Regrettable)

• Developing Implementation Plans

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•

Information needs

Impact assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Financial arrangements

Evaluate

Policy, legal and institutional framework

Understand the vulnerability

Development of measures

Information needs

Impact assessment

Vulnerability assessment

Financial arrangements

Evaluate

Policy, legal and institutional framework

Understand the vulnerability

Development of measures

The Dynamic nature of climate change adaptation strategies

Next Step

Budget Details for different risks(Personal Assessment)

Budget Details for different risks(Personal Assessment)

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Total Budget , CC Adaptation Strategy , (Personal Assessment)

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0.0

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20.0

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40.0

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60.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050

Estimated Climate Change Adaptation Budget till 2050for the 4 Defined Rrisks (Billion LE)

Now we are standing Here 35

Where we are Standing NOW,

We still at the very Beginning; BUT on the Road, and we have to start Acting

ROAD MAP for Implementing CC Aaptation Strategy

• The Road Map is a set of forward looking strategies within a time frame,

• A road map must be: S M A R T[ Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, Time‐bound]

• The Road Map Should Involve all stakeholders like:- Policy makers and planners

- Research and Educational Institutions

- Community Organizations

- Development Institutions

- Private Companies

• 4 Steps to formulate the Road Map …..

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Guidelines for Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

• 4 Main Steps

•Flow Diagram of Mainstreaming CC Adaptation37

Institutinal Analysis National Plans

Stakeholders

IdentifictionCapacity Needs

Building on Existing

SystemsGovernance

Budgeting Capacity Building

Stak

ehol

ders

Inv

olve

men

t

STEP 1: SITUATION ANALYSIS

STEP 2: ENABLING ENVIRONMENT

STEP 3: PLANNIING &

POLICY STRUCTURE

STEP 4: INSTITUTIONAL

STRUCTURE

PublicAwareness

Mainstreaming Team

Identify Entry points for

Mainstreaming

Capacity Needs

Climate - Proofed National Plans

Stakeholders Identification

The Way Forward

• Create informed consensus on climate change risks, objectives and policies.

• Define the roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders (sectoral agencies, different ministries and different levels implementing and evaluating bodies).

• Strengthen the networks in Knowledge creation and dissemination

• Network among capacity building agencies and institutions

• Implementing suitable support system

• Feedback to national policies, state policies and international negotiations

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Adaptation ProcessExample: Coastal Zone

• Sand Dunes systems should be treated as the first defensive line for the Nile Delta.

• Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.

• International Coastal Road may be considered as the second protection measure and studies to support it are urgently required.

• Coastal Protection work needs regular maintenance and should be considered in any coastal zone management plans.

• The Northwest Coast extended from Alexandria to the Egyptian-Libyan borders is not vulnerable as it has elevation more than 10 m above average sea water level.

1- Utilizing Dredged Bed Material from Damietta Port Approaching Channel in Beach Nourishment

Proposed nourished areas

2- Coastal Sand Dunes Stabilizing

International coastal road Sand Dunes At the West

Side of Rosseta Region

Manzala Lake management

According to DO According to NH3Sampling locations

Coastal Lakes are appropriate adaptive measure against sea level rise.

3- Coastal Lakes as an Appropriate Adaptive Measure against Sea Level Rise

Ras-El-Bar City shore before Shore

protection

Ras-El-Bar City shore After

Shore protection

4- Managed Alignment

Thank you