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Climate Change Impacts on Georgia’s Natural Resources
Steven McNulty, Ph.D.
Research Ecologist
USDA Forest Service
Raleigh, NC
Global change impacts range from the certain to the unknown
Certain change
Atmospheric CO2 is increasing and will continue to increase for the foreseeable future due to human emissions of fossil fuel and land clearing
Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
Very Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests
Increased Population
Increased Fire Fuel loads
Increased Air Temperature
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
“..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period”
Stott et al, Science 2000
Simulated Temperature over the US
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
Total Population 1990 (NPA)
Total Population 2045 (NPA)
Increase (%) in Population from 1990 to 2045 (NPA)
Total Down Woody Material (Mg/ha)for mixed hardwood & coniferous tree species
based on 2001-2002 FIA P3 county data
Note: two counties have no data available (depicted in white)
Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests(with and without climate change)
Inter-annual precipitation variability
Percent of the continental US with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events more than 2 inches
Karl et al. 1996
Uwharrie National Forest Current Soil Erosion Map
Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
Likely Impacts On Georgia Forests(with and without climate change)
Water supply Stress
Water Demand (Use)
12%
8%
39%
41%Domestic
Industrial
ThermoEle
Irrigation
Water Availability
Supply Demand
Climate Land use change
Population
Water Supply Stress Index (WSSI)
WSSI = Total water demand from all sectors –rechargeTotal water supply (PPT + ground water)
Change in Water Stress (WSSIR)
to assess relative change in WSSI between the base year water stress (1990) and another year water stress
100*)1)( -WSSI1990
WSSIdWSSIRd =
Georgia Water Stress
• Hot/Dry year (2043) with ground water available
• Hot/Dry year (2043) without ground water available
• Warm/Wet year (2045) with ground water available
• Warm/Wet year (20450 without ground water available
Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043
Hot dry year
Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2043
Hot dry year
Mean Temperature Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045
Warm wet year
Total Precipitation Predicted by Had2CMSul for 2045
Warm wet year
Water Supply Stress Index for 2045
wet year with groundwater
WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045wet year with groundwater
Water Supply Stress Index for 2045
wet year with NO groundwater
WSSI Ratio for 1990:2045 wet year with NO groundwater
Water Supply Stress Index for 2043dry year with groundwater
WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043 dry year with groundwater
Water Supply Stress Index for 2043 dry year with NO groundwater
WSSI Ratio for 1990:2043 dry year with NO groundwater
Likely Impacts In Georgia Forests(with and without climate change)
Extended growing season and warming
The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.
PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario (2000)
PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario (2025)
PEcon Hardwood Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario (2050)
PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario
Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2000)
PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario
Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2025)
PEcon Harvest Volume by FIA Survey UnitHad2CMSul Climate Scenario
Natural Pine, Mixed Pine and Hardwoods (2050)
Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia 1993 - 2040: No Climate Change Baseline
Timberland Acreage Shift in Georgia by 2040 with Had2CMSul Climate Change
> 25% DECLINE
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline
Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Unlikely Impacts In Southeastern Forests(dependent of climate change)
Slash pine
Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
Sweetgum
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
Longleaf pine
Unknown Impacts In Southeastern Forests(dependent of climate change)
Increasing CO2 on forest growth
Insect and disease impacts
Integrated stress impacts