Climate change integrated assessment methodology for

cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Funded under the European Commission

Seventh Framework Programme

Contract Number: 244031

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Initial design of IA Platform Construction of meta-models

Workshop 1: Draft four socio-economic scenarios

Quantification of scenarios Feedback on design and functionality

Workshop 2: Enrich and expand scenarios

Revisit the quantification of scenarios Define adaptation options

Workshop 3: Test IA Platform with adaptation options

Explore impacts and adaptation responses

Final CLIMSAVE IA Platform

Stakeholder engagement process

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Participatory socio-economic scenarios

Europe Scotland

Surplus Deficit

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Cross-sectoral focus

Urban

Agriculture

Forests

Biodiversity

Water

Coasts

Competition for land

Competition for water

Impacts

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Ecosystem service indicators

Category Service Indicator

Provisioning Food Food production (TJ)

Raw materials Timber production (Mt)

Water Drinking water (mill m3)

Regulating Water Potential forest water

storage in soil (kg/ m3)

Flood Flood protection (ha)

Climate Potential forest carbon

balance (t/ha/an)

Pollination Presence/absence of

pollinator species

Cultural Recreation and

tourism

Skiing days (Days with

>10cms snow)

Aesthetic Naturalness

Sensitivity analysis

Explore how changing the baseline climate affects model results

Explore how changing the baseline socio-economic assumptions affects model results

Scenario analysis

See how impacts change for different scenarios

Select your: • Time period (2020s or 2050s) • IPCC Emissions scenario • Climate model (5) • Climate sensitivity (medium is default) • Socio-economic scenario

Socio-economic scenarios were developed by stakeholders during the CLIMSAVE project

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Illustrative results for the 2050s

Should I Stay GDP: -36% Popn: +23% Yld Tech: -3%

Riders on the storm GDP: +54% Popn: +16% Yld Tech: +26%

Should I Stay For to ag conversion: 18% For NPP: 299Mt

Change in food production:

Forest soil carbon balance:

Riders on the storm For to ag conversion: -5% For NPP: 614 Mt

Explore scenario uncertainty

Default slider positions developed by CLIMSAVE

stakeholders

Green (for “Go”) range is stakeholder-derived scenario

uncertainty

Yellow (for “Caution”) range to explore greater uncertainty

Red (for “Stop”)

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Adaptation screen

Marker shows setting from the Impacts screen

Difference between the marker and the slider represents the amount of adaptation

Moving to the adaptation screen fixes

the scenarios

Green range represents credible adaptation. This is a function of the scenario and the available

capital (human, social and manufactured)

Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe

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Number of vulnerable people in 2050s

Percentage of the European population vulnerable, relative to baseline, for

the six ecosystem service indices by socio-economic and climate scenario.

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Conclusions

• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform is an interactive exploratory web-based tool to enable a wide range of professional, academic and governmental stakeholders to improve their understanding surrounding impacts, adaptation responses and vulnerability under uncertain futures.

• Its holistic framework (cross-sectoral, climate and socio-economic change) is intended to complement, rather than replace, the use of more detailed sectoral tools used for local predictions.

• It is intended to assist stakeholders and researchers in developing their capacity to understand the interactions between different sectors, rather than viewing sectors in isolation.

Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union

Contract Number: 603416

Impacts and Risks from High-End Scenarios: Strategies for Innovative

Solutions

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IMPRESSIONS Concept

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Stakeholder engagement

• Undertake a survey of key decision-makers in each case study to better understand their knowledge needs for incorporating uncertain scientific evidence in the development of adaptation policy and practice.

• Engage stakeholders through a series of 3 workshops in each case study, supplemented by online engagement, in defining:

– socio-economic scenarios; – adaptation and mitigation

pathways; – innovative policy strategies.

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Integrated scenarios

• Develop a coherent set of multi-scale, integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios covering the 5 case studies.

• The scenarios will include high-end climate change (building on the IPCC 5th Assessment Report) and embed potential climate and socio-economic tipping points:

– Socio-economic scenarios: meta-analysis of existing scenarios plus participatory workshops.

– Climate scenarios: CMIP5/ CORDEX plus new runs (possibly 3 and 6oC)

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• Develop a multi-scale modelling framework that specifies the cascade of boundary conditions and enables comparison of impacts and adaptation results across scales:

– Variety of different methods and models (Global Integrated Assessment

Models, CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform, process-based models, agent-

based models and mixed qualitative-quantitative participatory methods).

– Strong focus on improving the representation of (i) the adaptation process; and (ii) cross-sectoral interactions.

Impacts and adaptation modelling

Global EuropeanRegional/local case studies

Scotland Iberia HungaryAgriculture √ [√] √ [√]Forestry [√] [√] [√]Biodiversity √ √ √ √Water √ √ √ [√] √Coasts √ √Urban √ √ √ √Tourism √ √Health √ [√] [√]Energy [√]

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• Assess the robustness of current policies and strategies within the case studies to high-end scenarios.

• Develop adaptation and mitigation pathways for evaluating the time- and path-dependency of adaptation and mitigation options.

Integrated solutions

• Formulate mechanisms that connect and foster synergies between the adaptation and mitigation pathways.

• Synthesise project results and use to explore new policy approaches for adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development with stakeholders.

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IMPRESSIONS main outcomes

• A more thorough understanding of stakeholder needs for increasing the robustness of decisions in response to high-end climate change scenarios.

• A set of integrated high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios covering global, European and regional/local scales.

• Improved quantification of cross-sectoral impacts and risks associated with high-end scenarios along with consideration of their uncertainties.

• Advances in how adaptation is modelled through representation of associated constraints, triggers, time lags and consequences.

• A set of pathways that offer options for harmonising adaptation and mitigation strategies to enable society to adapt effectively to potential impacts under high-end scenarios and across multiple scales.

• Assessment of the robustness of policies and the need for transformative strategies to deal with high-end scenarios.

• An Information Hub to make the projects findings accessible and enhance stakeholders’ capacity to take up the project’s recommendations.

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Thank you!

• CLIMSAVE IAP available from www.climsave.eu or Climate-ADAPT (http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/climsave-tool).

• More information on IMPRESSIONS available from:

www.impressions.project.eu

? Questions you would like us to consider addressing

in IMPRESSIONS ?