CLIMATE CHANGE

Iracema FA CavalcantiSimone FerrazGabriela MulerKelen Andrade Wagner Sares

Identification of problems to climate change analysis

• Data: • Confidence on observed data (present)• Comparison of station observed data with NCEP

data/CMAP/GPCP/CPC

• Models:• Confidence on Models • Representation of present climate

• Read the IPCC 2007 report

GCMs: IPCC• Large scale features are reproduced by the models but the

regional aspects need to bee analyzed in regional models.

• Problems : Amazon Precipitation, ITCZ, SACZ

• Regions where the models agree: NW (more); South (more); SW (less)

• GCModels: some Models are better than others over South America

• Confidence in some regions (where the good models agree)

• Uncertainty in results

• Confidence on Mean Temperature : Warming in all models

Suggestion to IPCC model results

• Take the ensemble of models which give good results in some regions and give weights to different parts and then do the ensemble.

REGIONAL MODELS

• Regional models have been tested: REGCM3; ETA The models are still been adjusted

• PRECIS HADRM3P: LLJ

• Large scale aspects close to South America have been simulated, but indices and regional features still need to be analyzed

Need of other techniques applications

• The models can simulate the variability patterns (dipole north-south)

• Then, there is a need to apply other thechniques to extract the configuration in other parts, as southeast (less) and northeast (less)

• Techniques to be used: EOF, Correlation, SDV, etc• Analyze the intraseasonal variability in IPCC results and

regional models• The dipole north-south is intensified in scenarios of

climate change• (the intratraseasonal variability will increase?)• Interannual and interdecadal variability

ANALYZE THE MECHANISMS

• How the mechanisms that influence the precipitation over South America will change in the future?

Mechanisms

SST (More El Ninos or stronger? ) (Pacific and Atlantic , Indian: How affect SACZ; ITCZ

• Antarctica Oscillation Variability (Intensity?)• North Atlantic Oscillation• PSA• Madden Julian• Indian dipole• ZCPS• PDO• Monsoon (rainy season- onset-demise)• Teleconnections and Rossby wave propagation

Behavior of synoptic systems

Frontal systems, cyclonic vortex, LLJ, jet-stream• Mesoscale: MCS, LI instability (?)• Cases of cold air outbreaks : reduction but

intensity?)• How the mechanisms that influence the

precipitation over South merica • Will change in the future?• Apply indices associated with systems

Besides the uncertainty we can extract information from results.

• Analyse Extremes (IPCC models show increase of extremes)

• Apply indices associated with systems

IMPROVEMENTS IN MODELS

• Models:

• Improvements in radiation, surface-atmosphere interaction,

• Dynamic vegetation (how CO2 will influence vegetation )

• Atmospheric Chemistry

• Stratospheric air intrusion (O3)

• Understanding of process in models

APPLICATIONS

• Fishering • Agriculture • Hydroelectricity

• Provide elements to mitigation• Actions in regions to wait the future

changes (flooding; droughts, etc)