Climate Change Jun 11

8/3/2019 Climate Change Jun 11

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Climate Change and Agriculture

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NH Rao National Academy of Agricultural Research

Management, Rajendranagar, Hyderabad


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Learning objectives

Climate context : change, emissions, forcing,impacts, models, scenarios, projections

Agricultural context : crop yield changes, economic

impacts, resource and environment effects, foodsecurity both problem and solution

Sustainable development context : food security,vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation

With reference to India


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Climate change and Variability

Fig Source : IPCC, 2001

Climate change (IPCC Definition): change in the state of the climatethat can be identified (e.g. using statistical tests) by changes in themean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for anextended period, typically decades or longer


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Background: Green house effect and global warming

climate is driven by solar energy 30 % scatters back to space, 70% warms the

earths surface; earth emits energy back as infrared/thermal radiation greenhouse gases : water vapour, CO 2, ozone, methane, nitrous oxide,

halocarbons and other industrial gases (< 1%) greenhouse effect : greenhouse gases block infrared radiation to cause a rise

in temperature (natural greenhouse effect) keep the planet about 30 0 C

warmer than it would otherwise be ( essential for life ) anthropogenic forcing : rising levels of green house gases (except water

vapour) from human activity industry, agriculture, land use changetransportation, etc., leading to enhanced greenhouse effect

global warming: climate system adjusts to rising greenhouse gases to keep the

global energy budget in balance through rise in average temperature ; uncertainties : global warming even by a small rise in temperature will be

accompanied by many changes which are difficult to predict : cloud cover,wind patterns, ocean currents, etc., which may produce positive or negativefeedbacks


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The climate change process

EmissionsGHGs

Concentrationsof GHGs in atmosphere

Warming(climate forcing)

Climate change(Temp, rain, sea-level)

Impacts


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1000 years of global CO 2 and temperature changes

Fig source: NASA

Surface temperatureshave risen about: 0.7 oC since the early

twentieth century, about 0.5 oC of this

increase is since 1978 by 2100 1.4 to 5.8 oC

over 1990 levels .


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Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

Rise in mean temperature (1880-2006)

Global Surface Temperatures are Increasing at: 0.74 C/decade in last 100yrs 1.28 C/decade in last 50yrs 1.7 C/decade in last 25 yrs


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Sea level rise in20 th century: 0.17m

Fig source: IPCC

Sea level rise and snowmelt

Maximum areacovered by seasonallyfrozen ground hasdecreased by about

7% in Northernhemisphere since1900


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Changes in surface temperature 1970-2004

Source IPCC, AR4 2007


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Main categories of GHG emission sources

Energy : fuel combustion in energy industries,manufacturing industries, transportation, other

Industrial processes and product use : chemicalindustries, mineral industry, metal industry,

electronics industry, product usage, other agriculture, forestry and other land use : crop land,

livestock, manure management, forest land, wet land,grassland, soils, other land

waste disposal : solid waste disposal, biologicaltreatment, incineration and open burning, other


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Global atmospheric concentrationsof carbon dioxide, methane andnitrous oxide have increasedmarkedly as a result of humanactivities since 1750 and now farexceed pre-industrial values

The global increases in carbondioxide concentration are dueprimarily to fossil fuel use and landuse change, while those of methaneand nitrous oxide are primarily dueto agriculture .

(IPCC AR4, 2007)

concentrations of carbon

dioxide have increased from about 280 ppm (preindustrial era) to about379 ppm (2005)

Atmospheric concentrations of GHGs over last2000 years


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Carbon dioxide concentration - database


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Source:Rosegrant,2009

World GHG emissions and sources


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Emissions from different sources (IPCC, 2007)


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Summary of GHG increases (1970-2004) - global

CO 2 : 70% (largest sources: power generation, transport) CH 4 : 40% (largest source: agriculture rice, livestock) N2O: 50% (largest source: agriculture - fertilizer use)

Agricultural CH 4 and N 2O have increased 17% during 1990-2005;most of it from developing countries

Note: Global Warming Potential (GWP) of Methane and nitrous oxide>> Carbon dioxide

Methane has a GWP of 25 times carbon dioxide Nitrous oxide has a GWP of 298 times carbon dioxide

source: IFPRI, 2009


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Regional share of GHG emissions

Indias share :

1990 2000

Source : Sharma et al, 2006

Greenhouse gas emissions, 2004 estimates (million mt, CO 2e)

CO2 CH4 N2O PFC HFC SF6 Total World 28,485 6,408 3,286 108 381 60 38,726India 1,222 548 71 3 8 2 1,853 (5% of total) Indian 0 317 58 0 0 0 375 (20% of Indian) agriculture

Source: IFPRI, 2009


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How do we know that changes are because of human activities?

Source: IPCC

Model Resultsestablish theconnection

betweentemperaturechange andhumanactivities


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Observed and simulated temperature change (IPCC, 2007

state-of-the-art climatemodels, reproduce almostperfectly the last 125 yearsof observed temperatures.


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-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

DJF MAM JJAS ON Annual

SEASONS

T E M P

. T R E N D i n C / 1 0 0 y r s

India: Observed temperature changes 1901-2007

Source: IMD

Maximum temp

Minimum Temp

Regional Variations in Max Temp Trends

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

West Him. North Wes t NorthCentral

North Eas t WestCoast

East Coast InteriorPen.

Max Temp Trends

T increase for India ~0.5 C/100yr(1901-2007); 0.2 C/10yr (1971-2007)

Both Max and Min T are increasing Max T increase is at a faster rate Winter months show larger

increase West coast, North East and

Western Himalayan show largerincrease


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India - Changes in rainfall

Low & Moderate events (10cm)

V. Heavy events (>15cm)

No long-term trend in all-India meanMonsoon Rainfall since 1871

Epochs of above/below normal monsoonactivity with a periodicity of approx. 30 yrs(current period - below normal epoch)

Changes in rainfall characteristics increase in frequency of high rainfall events


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PRECIS

Regional Climate model(PRECIS ) simulations for India

source: Rupakumar et al, 2006

observed


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Predicting climate change and impacts

CONCENTRATIONSCO 2, methane, etc.

HEATING EFFECTClimate Forcing.

IMPACTSFlooding, food supply, etc.

Scenarios from

population, energy,economics models

Carbon cycle andchemistry models

Gas properties

Coupled climatemodels

Impacts models

CLIMATE CHANGETemp, rain, sea-level, etc.

EMISSIONS

f e e

d b

a c k

s

Fig source: Srinivasan, IMD


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Scenarios - IPCC 40 scenarios grouped in 4 families - A1, A2, B1, B2

- A1: rapid growth in globalizedworld, high energy use

- A2: slow development, slowconvergence; use of renewableenergy

- B1 : similar to A1;more emphasison energy conservation andenvironment (information, services)

- B2 : slow development,local solutions for sustainable

development corresponding GHG emission levels for

each scenario marker scenarios : for each family identified


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Climate projections


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Projections


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Temperature changes that different regions of the world mightexperience (difference between average T of 2071-2100 and 1990).Land areas are expected to warm more than oceans, and the greatestwarming is projected at high latitudes.

Projections


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Temperature and precipitation trends over Indiafor A2 and B2 scenarios (Rupakumar et al, 2006)

Temperature Rainfall

by end of 21st century: rainfall increase by 15-40% mean annual temperature increase by 3C to 6C. maximum increase over northern India. more warming over: land; winter, and post monsoon

Source: Rupakumar etal 2006


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Climate change : factors affecting agriculturalproductivity

monsoon dependence

increasing rainfall and variability rising temperature CO2 fertilization decrease in length of growing

period increase in rainfall offset by rise in

temperature soil moisture stress increase in water resources in

most river basins can coexistwith water stress

increased variability becauseof increased rainfall variability,floods/ droughts

increased pest infestation reduction in input use efficiencies lower farm incomes

Acute physical water scarce conditionsConstant water scarcities and shortageSeasonal / regular stressed conditionsRare water shortages


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Predicted changes in temperature (A1F)

Source: World Bank 2011


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Crop Yields are Projected to Decrease Throughout theTropics and Sub-tropics, but Increase at High Latitudes

Source: IPCC, 2007

Global reportsindicate a lossof 10-40% in

cropproduction by2100.


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Warming impact on India - effect of temperature on farm value (source: Dinar, 2002)

Differential impacts : Development status


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Growth in emission transfers via international trade

CO2 emissions indeveloped countries(Kyoto Protocol, AnnexB countries) havestabilized, butemissions indeveloping countries(non-Annex B) havedoubled. Stabilization indeveloped countrieswas partially because ofgrowing importsfrom developingcountries.

Soure: PNAS 2011


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India - Impacts on crop yields and production

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

C h a n g e

i n g r a

i n y

i e l d

, %

Minimum

Maximum

Wheat

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

C h a n g e i n g r a i n

y i e l d

, %

Minimum

MaximumRice

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Year

P r o

d u c

t i o n ,

M t o n s

Wheat productionin India

Source: Aggarwal, 2002


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Length of growing period

Basmati quality

India Impacts on agriculture

Milk production


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Impacts on resources - water


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Increased water, shelter, and energy requirements forlivestock

Animal distress due to heat- effects on reproduction

Loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 in business asusual scenario

Increasing sea and river water temperatures to affectfish breeding, migration, and harvests.

Impacts on fisheries and livestock


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productivity decrease due to increase in temperature and decrease in

water availability (especially in Indo-Gangetic plains). greater loss in rabi ; every 1 oC increase in temperature reduces wheatproduction by 4-5 million tons.

increased climatic extremes- droughts and floods- lead to increasedproduction variability

increased fertilizer requirement for the same production targets; leadingto higher emissions loss of 1.5 million tons of milk by 2020 in business as usual scenario increasing sea and river water temperatures affect fish breeding,

migration, and harvests

effects on microbes, pathogens, and insects imbalance in food trade due to positive impacts on Europe and N.America

quality of several commodities could change, e.g basmati rice,medicinal and aromatic plants Source PK Aggarwal, 2008

Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture


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climate change and food security

Agronomy+ cropmodels

crop models+

farm/regionaldatabases+

GIS

Crop models+

farm/regionaldatabases

+GIS

+Food securityassessments

Fig source: Ingram et al, 2005


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Food UtilizationNutritional

Value Social Value Food safety

Food AccessAffordability Allocation Preference

Food AvailabilityProduction Distribution

Exchange

Stability of production base

Framework for food security assessment


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Calories Child malnutrition

Climate change impacts on food security

Nelson et al, 2009

prices


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household: food insecurity in India(current)

Fig source: MSSRF

Food security assessment

Effect of climate change (Nelson et al, 2009)

decline in calorie availabilityand per capita consumption ofmeat and cereals increase in prices affectshousehold food security

increase in child malnutrition

need to connect developmentpolicies with climate changeadaptation and mitigationpolicies


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IPCC Definition

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system issusceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverseeffects of climate change , including climate

variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is a function of the character,magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation

to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity , and itsadaptive capacity

Vulnerability


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IPCCframework


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Vulnerability assessment

(Example: OBrien et al 2004)

1. Adaptive capacity =

f (biophysical, socioeconomic, technical factors)

- biophysical factors : soil depth, quality; groundwater

- socioeconomic factors : literacy, gender equity,alternatives

- technical factors : irrigation, infrastructure

2. Sensitivity to stress (dryness, monsoon dependence)

3. Exposure (from climate scenarios)

i h i l S i l


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Low adaptive capacity : districts inBihar (Jharkhand), Rajasthan,Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh,Maharashtra, Karnataka

Biophysicalvulnerability

Socialvulnerability

Technicalvulnerability

Adaptivecapacity


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Climate sensitivity

1961-90 With exposure:

2x CO 2

High Climate Sensitivity : districts in Rajasthan,Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, andUttar Pradesh.

Indian agriculture current vulnerability to Future


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Indian agriculture - current vulnerability to FutureClimate Change

Hot spots : districts inJharkhandRajasthanGujaratNorthern Maharashtra

Madhya PradeshFollow up :Targeted studies at village levelin above districts to validate oridentify barriers at local level

Useful for assessing relative distribution ofvulnerability to climate change at district level


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Adaptation options Agronomy: time of planting, changes in inputs, timing, water

management New crops/varieties : drought/heat resistant diversification

With Adaptation T (+ 2C) + precipitation (+) 7% GDPAgri 7%

T (+ 3.5C) + precipitation (+ 15% ) GDPAgri 2.5%

Poverty Hunger (Kavikumar, 2002)

The adaptive capacity of small and marginal farmers is severelylimited by dependence on natural factors, access to inputs, andinstitutional support systems


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% Change in Cereal Yield vs. Temperature Change(with/without adaptation) from 69 Modeling Studies

Synopsis

low latitude cereal yields < current, evenwith modest warming

projected reduction for South Asia (20%)can challenge food security

with increasing climate variability andfrequencies of extreme events, crop

yield losses can occur at smaller meantemperature increases

Climate change likely to affect farmers notby gradual change in climate conditions,but by changes in frequencies of extremes(droughts, excessive rainfall, heat stress)

A change in climate variability is worsefor crops than slow, gradual climatechange

(source: Easterling 2005)

Mi i i hi h ib GHG


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Rice cultivation23%

Manuremanagement

5%

Emission fromsoils12%

Entericfermentation

59%

Crop residues1%

Mitigation: which sectors contribute more to GHGemissions

Source PK Aggarwal, 2008


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Mitigation strategies

Crop management : plant breeding, nutrient management, water

management, rice management, land use change, agroforestry, Grazing land management Management of Soil organic matter Restoration of degraded lands Livestock management : feed management, dietary additives,animal breeding Waste management Carbon sequestration soil as carbon sink zero tillage,conservation tillage Water pricing


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Framework for assessment of mitigation options

Fig source: Pathak et al, 2005


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Emissions and reductions from mid seasondrying of rice (Nelson et al 2009)

CO2 equivalentemissions

Reductions for onedrying (for rice)

Adaptation vs mitigation issues for agricultural


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Adaptation vs mitigation issues for agriculturalresearch and policy

Adaptation focus on crop breeding and management responses climate change is global, whereas adaptation is intensely local significant uncertainties in scaling down model scenarios to local scales adaptation is seasonal and usually considered at 3 to 20 year time horizons,

whereas climate change scenarios are for far future, 2050 or 2100 relevance of many current adaptation studies is therefore uncertain

Mitigation agriculture as part of solution to climate change problem BMPs can significantly reduce emissions (intermittent irrigation and drainage

reduces methane emissions by 40%; conservation tillage, fertilizermanagement, livestock feed improvements can reduce GHGs)

reduced GHGs can earn carbon credits (can be offset against subsidies) needs better understanding of processes and high traceability of BMPs


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Institutional arrangements in India

ICAR Network on Climate Change


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ICAR Network on Climate Changeand Agriculture: Thematic areas


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A Network on Climate Changeand agriculture launched in2004 for studies on impactassessment, adaptation andmitigation options

Current strength:

23 institutes > 100 scientists more planned

ICAR Network on Climate Change and Agriculture

S


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Summary

exposure mainly temperature and rainfall changes at

regional scales; information needed at finer resolutions(1km 2); other information needs include: changes in onsetand withdrawal of monsoon, LGP impact : limited to productivity at field scale; need forunderstanding connections with farm and regional scalesand with the agricultural value chain (farm to plate) costs: information needed on costs of adaptation/mitigation

alternatives : need to explore alternate strategies:insurance, information exchange, carbon offsets integration : climate policy with development policy data : need to develop national data sets


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Climate Change Jun 11