Climate Change & Migration: Global Discourse and Perspective from Bangladesh

Abdusattor Esoev

Senior Programme Manager/Deputy Chief of Mission

IOM -Dhaka

• The environment and its interaction with other stressors have always led to

direct or indirect migration Migration is a common coping strategy

• Climate change will intensify existing migration drivers

• Sudden and slow onset events impact development, livelihoods,

settlement and food production people migrate to areas that present

better opportunities;

• Sudden onset disasters: Usually displace large numbers, temporarily

• Slow-onset disasters: Usually displace permanently

The climate change, environmental

degradation and migration nexus

Image Source: Getty images

• IOM defines “environmental migrants” as “persons or groups of

persons who, for reasons of in the

environment that adversely affect their , are

obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either

, and who move either

.”

Terminology Several interchangeable

terms: climate/

environmental refugees,

environmental displaced,

environmental/climate

migrants, and climate-

change-induced migrants

‘Climate Refugees’ • Not covered under the 1951

Refugee Convention • The grounds for persecution are not

clear • No right to return in the case of

sinking islands • Dilutes the case of political

refugees

Limitations in Terminology

‘Internally Displaced Persons’ • Includes those displaced due to

natural disasters but within

national borders

• Does NOT include cross-border

displacement

Climate change induced

migrants/climate migrants • Draws a deterministic link

between climate change and

migration

• Cannot isolate environment as

a factor

• In 2005, the UN University’s Institute for Environment and Human Security

predicted 50 million environmental refugees by 2010

• In 2009, a report by the Environmental Justice Foundation mentions 150

million ‘climate refugees’ by 2050

• In 2050, 200 million individuals worldwide will face climate change-induced

displacement (UNU)

Some commonly cited numbers

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IPCC 1st Assessment Report (AR) -1999:

“The gravest effects of climate change may be

those on human migration”

IPCC 5th AR (2013):

“The migration and mobility dimensions of the

impacts of climate change and the central role of

mobility in adaptation has become apparent”

“Long-term environmental change, sea-level rise,

coastal erosion, and loss of agricultural

productivity will have a significant impact on

migration flows”

Global Response to MECC: IPCC

06/06/14

Image Source: Hussaina Fazl

Image Source: Dawn

7

COP 21, Paris 2015: Acknowledges the rights of migrants and calls

for addressing displacement arising from climate change. Also calls

for establishing a taskforce to address the issue.

COP 20, Lima 2014: Lima call for action notes a proposal to create a

‘climate change displacement coordination facility’

COP18, Doha, 2012: “acknowledges the further work to advance the

understanding of and expertise on loss and damage, which

includes… .”

COP 16, Cancun, 2010: Paragraph 14(f) of the Cancun declaration

(2010) invites all parties to enhance action on adaptation by taking

“measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation

with regard to

, where appropriate, at the national, regional and

international levels.”

Migration in the UNFCCC

• CVF is an international partnership of 43 countries

highly vulnerable to climate change.

• Dhaka Ministerial Declaration, 2011 recognizes

migration as an adaptation strategy

• Bangladesh is the climate change and migration coordinator

The Nansen Initiative

• Launched in 2012 by Norway and Switzerland

• A bottom-up consultative process to build consensus/develop

regional solutions for protection of those displaced across borders

by natural disasters and climate change

Global platforms for discussion

The Asia Pacific context

• Asia and the Pacific is the

region in the world.

• The region accounted for of the world’s total death and

of the world’s total damage due to natural disasters in the

last century.

• In 2013, of the global total

of displaced populations due to natural disasters were recorded

in Asia

Image Source: Warrick Page/UNICEF Image Source :AP

Who’s at risk and how?

Slow onset events

Sea Level Rise

Affecting cities

- Karachi

- Mumbai

- Dhaka

- Bangkok

- Jakarta

- Manila

- Hanoi

Affecting low-lying Islands

- Maldives

- Philippines

- Tuvalu

- Kiribati

- Vanuatu

Glacial retreat

Nepal, Bhutan, East Asia

Desertification

Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Mongolia, China

Coastal Erosion/Salinization

Bangladesh, India, Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Fiji

Long term trends created by incremental climate change are known as

Who’s at risk and how?

Sudden onset events

Floods/Storm Surge

Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand,

Samoa, Indonesia

Cyclones

Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Philippines, Indonesia,

Samoa, Tonga, Timor-Leste, Vietnam

Climate change is likely to increase the frequency and intensity of

Image Source :AFP

Image Source :Dawn

Regional Response to Climate

Change and migration Organization Response to Climate Change Inclusion of Migration?

ASEAN ASEAN Action Plan on Joint Response to Climate Change

No mention

ASEAN Agreement on Disaster

Management and Emergency Response

No mention

BIMSTEC Climate change and Environment and

disasters are priority areas for cooperation

No mention

Colombo Process

Dhaka Declaration Mentions climate change

SAARC Thimpu Statement on Climate Change

2010

18th SAARC Summit Declaration, 2015

No mention

Mentions ‘existential threats’ posed by climate change

PIF Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate Change

No mention

Niue Declaration on Climate Change Urges partners to provide support in

case of relocation 3/4/2015 12

National responses to Climate Change

and Migration in South Asia

• Maldives proposing to buy land from

India/Australia + Creation of artificial Islands;

• Bangladesh’s BCCSAP recognizes environmental

refugees and migration as a “valid option”; NAPA

activities attempt to halt migration to cities

• Pakistan’s NCCP recognizes climate induced

migration

• Sri Lanka: proposed relocation of coastal

communities as an adaptation method

• Many national policies (NAPAs, communication to

the UNFCCC etc of India, Nepal and Bhutan)

recognize link between environment, natural

disasters and migration- and the impact of

migration on the environment; But no activities on

climate change and migration in the NAPAs

• Only Pakistan and India have Ministries on Climate

Change

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National responses to Climate Change and

Migration

• Kiribati’s ‘Education for Migration’ + buying land in Fiji

• The Marshall Islands’ “Vision 2018”:aims to "“develop and have in place a

contingency/adaptation plan to counter the emerging threats resulting from the

adverse effects of climate change including a National Disaster Plan”

• Tuvalu: “Migration is a last resort; resettlement in the worst case scenario”

• Vanuatu: Relocation from Tegua

• Philippines National Climate Change Action Plan: "Develop a long term plan for

adaptation of highly CC vulnerable population and climate refugees."

• Vietnam’s National Strategy on Climate Change: Adaptation through ‘relocation’

• United States provides the Temporary Protection Status (TPS) for those who

were fleeing dangerous situations including if “there has been an

environmental disaster in the foreign state resulting in a substantial, but

temporary, disruption of living conditions.”

• Nordic Countries: Swedish and Finnish laws recognize environmental migrants

as a category of people requiring protection.

• Lack of evidence and research; No consensus on terminology

• Over emphasis on the negative dimensions of migration – failure to adapt

• Political sensitivities- [Over] Securitization of the impacts of climate change on migration

• Limited collaboration at the national and regional level; lack of political will

• No dedicated agency to promote migration as a strategy for adaptation;

limited CS pressure

• Lack of donor funding (IDF is the most important donor for IOM)

Limitations of existing policies and

programmes

Image Source: Oxfam Ireland

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Climate Change and Migration Projects in

Asia and the Pacific

Addressing Climate Change and Migration in the Mekong Delta in

Southern Viet Nam (ACCM)

Climate Adaptation, Disaster Risk

Reduction and Education, Federal State of Micronesia

(CADRE)

Migration, Environment

and Climate Change:

Evidence for Policy in

Dominican Republic,

Haiti, Kenya, Mauritius,

Papua New Guinea and

Vietnam (MECLEP)

Assessing Vulnerabilities

and Responses to

Environmental Changes in

Cambodia

Building Capacity of Papua New Guinean Government

to Respond to Climate Change and Engage

Grassroots Structures in Development Planning for

the Atolls

Assessing the climate

change, environmental

degradation and

migration nexus in South

Asia (Bangladesh,

Maldives and Nepal)

Active Completed

3/4/2015

Assessing the climate change, environmental

degradation and migration nexus in South Asia

The project covers 3 countries: Bangladesh, Nepal & Maldives 1. Assessing existing evidence of the linkages between climate change, environmental degradation and migration through a policy and literature review. Field research will be carried out on the nexus in selected districts of each of the three countries that experience high out-migration and are vulnerable to environmental events. 2. Drafting a regional strategy framework and model national action plans (NAP’s) 3. Organizing a regional dissemination meeting for policymakers to present the assessment study, model NAP’s and regional strategy framework.

Findings from Literature review

• 16 to 26 million people in Bangladesh are expected to migrate internally from their areas of origin between 2011 and 2050 due to floods, storm surges, riverbank erosion and sea level rise (RMMRU 2014).

• Another study suggests that climatic effects have already displaced 6 million people in Bangladesh.(Displacement Solution 2012)

• Due to multi causal nature of migration, it is challenging to quantify “Environmental Migrants”.

• Displacement arises out of sudden onset disasters, whereas slow onset disasters gradually affect the environment and livelihoods compelling people to first undertake economic migration which might initially be temporary or seasonal followed later by permanent migration. (Shamsuddoha 2012)

• In the initial stage, migrants are likely to move over short distances to nearer locations, rather than moving to the capital or other cities. (Uddin and Basak 2012)

• Often rural-rural migration is common within the poor groups that are vulnerable to climate change.

• No government institution & policy for managing Internal Migration. • Recent years, MECC issues have received lots of attention. • A plethora of literature supports that migration can also be a form of adaptation.

Existing policy directions on climate change, environmental degradation and migration

aspects

Policy Migration aspect

Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) 2009

Macroeconomic and sectoral economic impacts of climate change A4. Assessment of climate change and its impacts on out-migration” (page 56 / Programme T4P5 / Actions A4)

National Adaptation

Programmes of Action

(NAPA) 2005

“Social consequences of mass scale migration to cities would to some extent be halted” (page 36 / Project No. 11)

Disaster Management Act

2012

It is not stated explicitly. But mentions “Rehabilitation means: If necessary, to transfer affected people in other region to resume natural way of living.” (Article 15 (C))

National Plan for Disaster Management 2010-2015

Additionally, the poor are more vulnerable to any kind of disaster due to a) depletion of assets, b) income erosion due to loss of employment, c) increased indebtedness and d) out migration.

National Strategy On The Management Of Disaster And Climate Induced Internal Displacement (NSMDCIID)

First policy which solely focus on MECC issue.

Study Area Study District

Study Upazilla

Khulna (SW) Koira

Patuakhali (central

coast)

Kalapara

Sunamganj (North

East)

Jamalganj

Sadar

Rajshahi (North) Godagari

Methodology

Uniform methodology across the three countries. In each country: 320 Household survey: 160 Migrant Household & 160 Non-Migrant Households. 34 Key Informant Interviews: 10 with policymakers, 24 with filed level respondents. 12 FGD: 8 at origin (study sites) & 4 at destination (slums of divisional cities) 4 Community level workshops.

How the study HHs deal with adverse effects of climate change

43%

21% 21%

5%

16%

2% 2%

56%

44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Change thelivelihood

Seasonalmigration within

district

Seasonalmigration toother district

Temporarymigration within

district

Temporarymigration inother district

Permanentmigration (other

district)

Short terminternational

migration

Taking loan tomeet household

requirement

Others

Fig. How the study HHs deal with adverse effects of climate change

Preferred Destination for internal migration from the study areas

76.9%

16.2%

23.2%

10.3%

42.5%

100.0%

73.0%

56.1%

12.8%

55.0%

17.4%

2.5%

10.8%

3.2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Khulna Patuakhali Rajshahi Sunamganj Total

Re

spo

nse

(%

)

Fig. Preferred Destination for internal migration from the study areas

Dhaka (Capital city) Nearest District Nearest Sub-district Others

Major factors that influence HHs to choose the destination in the study areas

92.5% 97.5% 100.0%

96.3% 96.6%

66.3%

12.5%

0.0%

16.3% 23.8%

6.3%

31.3%

6.3%

63.8%

26.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Fig. Percentage distribution on the major factors that influence HHs to choose the destination in

the study areas

Networking

Distance

Livelihoodsopportunity

Others

Consequence of increased mobility in the context of Climate Change

• Increased number of people living in slums

• Human insecurity

• Pressure on infrastructure/services

In addition:

• Diversification of livelihoods

• Increased remittances which can be used for social development

• Investments/insurance

• Skills circulation

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• IOM’s central objectives in managing environmental migration are:

Minimize forced migration; Assist when forced migration occurs; Manage

migration to reduce vulnerability

• IOM works to promote migration as a strategy for adaptation

• IOM also aims to strengthen linkages with other policy domains especially

disaster risk reduction and sustainable development to build resilience and

reduce vulnerability in the long term

• IOM has over thirty titles dedicated to migration, environment and climate

change issues.

IOM’s Approach

1. Preventing

2. Preparing

3. Managing

4. Mitigating

5. Addressing

3/4/2015

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IOM’s Institutional set up for

MECC

3/4/2015

MECC division has recently been created under

DMM

HQ

Regional Advisor for Climate Change and Migration provides technical support

Asia-Pacific Region

IOM, through IDF supports 3 MECC

projects in the region

Funding support

http://environmentalmigration.iom.int

• Enhance research and awareness – to establish nexus

• Training and information for policymakers

• Raise awareness at all levels through greater dialogue amongst different

stakeholders and countries (including CSOs and CBOs)

• Promote migration as an adaptation strategy

• Encourage regional collaboration and to ensure that the negative effects on

all populations are mitigated

• Pending a consensus on the protection regime, develop guidelines and SOPs

Conclusion

Image Source: Reuters

Abdusattor Esoev

Senior Programme Manager/Deputy Chief of Mission

IOM -Dhaka