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Climate Change: Past, Present, and Future
Dr. Cameron WakeClimate Change Research CenterInstitute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (EOS)University of New Hampshire
2006 Boston World Oil Conference26 Oct 2006
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Mauna Loa (Hawaii) Carbon Dixoide Record 1958 - 2004
CO2 (ppmv)
year
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/
200
400
600
800
1000
0100,000200,000300,000400,000Years Before 2100 AD
Vostok Ice Core
Petit et al., 1999
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
200
400
600
800
1000
0100,000200,000300,000400,000Years Before 2100 AD
Vostok Ice Core Current (2005)
Mauna Loa
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Mauna Loa (Hawaii) Carbon Dixoide Record 1958 - 2004
CO2 (ppmv)
year
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
200
400
600
800
1000
0100,000200,000300,000400,000Years Before 2100 AD
Vostok Ice Core Current (2005)
Mauna Loa
Projected (2100)IPCC 2001 - A1FI
IPCC 2001
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
200
400
600
800
1000
0100,000200,000300,000400,000Years Before 2100 AD
Vostok Ice Core Current (2005)
Mauna Loa
Projected (2100)IPCC 2001 - A1FI
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
IPCC 2001
Projected (2100)IPCC 2001 - B1
-1
0
1
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Annual Mean5-year Mean
Year
http://www.giss.nasa.gov
Global Temperature 1880-2005(meteorological stations)
Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada
Average Annual Temperature in NE US & CDN Maritimes 1900-2002
1.4 oF warming over 103 years1.8 oF warming over 33 years
41
43
45
47
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Temperature (
oF)
Year
The temperature trend was calculated from a linear regression of annual average temperature for each station.
Spatial Variation of Annual Temperature Trend 1970-2002
Average Winter Temperature in the NE US & CDN Maritimes 1900-2002
Time-series represents an aerially weighted average of data from 136 stations. Data from the NOAA-NCDC and Environment Canada
2.3 oF warming over 103 years4.3 oF warming over 33 years
16
20
24
28
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Temperature (
oF)
Year
4.3oF Winter Temperature Increase from 1971-2002
38
39
40
41
42
43
29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
Latitude (
o N)
Winter (DJF) mean Temperature (oF)
Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation Trend 1970-2002
The extreme precipitation trend was calculated from a linear regression of number of events each year for each station.
Spatial Variation of Days with Snow on Ground 1970-2002
The snow on ground trend was calculated from a linear regression of annual total snow on ground days for each station.
Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA)
• Collaboration between UCS and 40 independent scientists
• Analytic ApproachAssess projected changes in climate and potential impacts through 2100 under lower and higher scenarios of heat-trapping emissions.
• Geographic ScopeNine Northeast states, from Maine to Pennsylvania.
• Peer ReviewK. Hayhoe, C. Wake, et al.,
Climate Dynamics, in pressBAMS, in review
Greenhouse Gas Emission Scenarios
Northeast Observed and Modeled Temperature
Northeast Observed and Modeled Precipitation
Northeast Observed and Modeled Extreme Temperature
Northeast Observed and
Modeled Drought
Northeast Observed and Modeled Snow on Ground Days per Month
Higher emissions: 50% reduction in snow-covered days (shown here)
Lower emissions: 25% reduction in snow-covered days
Northeast Modeled Snow on Ground Days
Sea Level Rise
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100projected global mean sea level rise (cm))
Higher emissions
Lower emissions
uncertainty in SLR from thermal expansion
uncertainty in SLR from ice melt
These estimates do not include the potential for additional increases due to more rapid melting of major polar ice sheets.
Higher: 8-33 inches
Lower: 4-21 inches
Conclusions
• Climate is already changing across the Northeast• Over the next few decades, similar changes expected under
both emissions scenarios• By mid-century, most changes are greater under the higher
scenario• By late-century, under the higher-emissions scenario:
– Many changes are almost twice those seen under lower emissions, including:
– winters warming by 8 -12F and summers by 6 -14F, with dramatic increases in extreme heat in cities.
Time For Action
• Individuals
• Institutions
• Citizens
Observed vs. Modeled Global Temperatures 1850-2000
From IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http://www.ipcc.ch)
(solar variations and volcanic activity)
Observed vs. Modeled Global Temperatures 1850-2000
From IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http://www.ipcc.ch)
(Greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols)
From IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (http://www.ipcc.ch)
Observed vs. Modeled Global Temperatures 1850-2000
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I - I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.
What path will we take to the future?
Robert Frost