Climate Change Pests and Disease - Tweed Forum · 1.2 Climate Change There is clear scientific evidence that the climate of the world and the British Isles is changing. The latest

Climate Change

Pests and Disease Prepared for: Tracy Hall, Cheviot Futures

Prepared by: SAC Commercial Ltd

Contributors: Ruth Kendal, SAC

Emily Maclean, SAC

Jonathan Grayshon, SAC

Moira Gallagher, SAC

Peter Shipway, SAC

SAC Consulting

Wooler Livestock Centre

Berwick Road

WOOLER

NE71 6SL

Tel: 01668 283363

Fax: 01668 283356

Date: 15th November 2013

SAC Consulting Page 2

Executive Summary

The Climate Change Pest and Disease Report was commissioned by Cheviot Futures in 2013 to draw

together the relevant research available to date, which examines the expected impacts of climate

change on pest and disease pressure in the Cheviot Hills region and the implications for the future. It

provides information and guidance to help inform management of arable cropping, grassland,

livestock and woodland in light of changing pest, weed and disease pressures. The project contributes

to Cheviot Futures aims and draws together and disseminates information relevant to managing the

Cheviot landscape under changing climate conditions.

The Cheviots landscape consists of hill and upland sloping down towards lighter more productive land

to the east with some heavier but productive land to the south. There are a range of soil types present

across the Cheviots with free draining floodplain soils to slowly permeable wet acid upland soils.

Habitats present in the Cheviots include heather moorland, blanket bogs, unimproved grassland, semi

improved grassland, mixed broadleaved woodland and arable land. The majority of arable land is

situated on the fringes of the hills and crops grown include wheat, barley, oats, oil seed rape and

potatoes. Livestock farming is also important with dairy, beef and sheep farms present in the Cheviots.

This dynamic and mixed landscape is predicted to be affected by climate change including changes to

seasonal rainfall patterns such as drier summers and wetter winters and increased incidences of

extreme rainfall events. Average temperatures are expected to rise by around 1.7°C with summer

temperatures expected to increase by up to 3.5°C. The number of extreme weather events are

expected to increase with more storm events with high winds and increased risk of flooding and

drought occurrence.

Climate change will impact upon pest and disease pressures in the Cheviots and this is well

documented in the literature reviewed. It may well be the case that some diseases or pests that have

presented a problem in the past disappear whilst new ‘Alien’ threats are introduced to the region.

Existing issues may become more widespread and also more severe as the environment favors the

parasite lifecycle. There is a huge amount of research and ongoing projects that explore the

anticipated impacts climate change will have on pest and diseases. What is made clear is that these

changes to pest and diseases while arguably unavoidable can be managed and controlled to some

degree.

Arable

The literature reviewed highlights that there are many potential threats to arable production from

changes in disease and pest geographical range and from new “alien” threats. There are a number of

ways in which these threats can be managed in an arable situation either by cultural or chemical

controls. The main adaption measures that farmers can take to build resilience and prepare for

change in arable situations, as discussed in the literature reviewed, are listed below:

- Alter timing of sowing, harvesting and spraying activities.

- Use varieties of crop more resilient to pest, weeds and diseases.

- Improve understanding and recognition of crop diseases, pests and weeds.


- Improved pesticide, herbicide and fungicide strategies and application techniques.

- Utilise monitoring and early warning systems.

- Use of Integrated Pest Management Control

- Consider crop rotations.

- Use of cultivations and cultural controls.

Grassland.

There are also pest, disease and weed risks to grassland production as a result of climate change. The

main adaptation measures presented in the literature review for grassland management are listed

below:

- Use of Herbicides (new varieties)

- Ensure regular grazing or frequent cutting.

- Maintain soil fertility to ensure grass can be competitive against weeds

- Check bought-in hay and straw for weeds, especially if feeding outside.

- Use appropriate cultivations.

Livestock.

Livestock is an important sector in the Cheviots and the threat from pests and disease presents a

significant threat to this sector. In the literature reviewed there is growing evidence of the extent and

type of diseases and pests that may become an issue to livestock. The literature also presented a

range of adaptation steps that farmers could take to prepare their farms. These are listed below:

- Better use and development of forecasting tools.

- Consideration of grazing options/timings.

- Improving understanding of the range of treatments available.

- Faecal Egg Counts.

- Improving understanding of the range of diseases out there and the identification of these

diseases.

- Health Planning - encourage use. Farmers should consider this as a key option.

- Vaccination plans on farm and contingency planning (quarantine).

Woodland

Woodland forms part of the diverse landscape of the Cheviots and it is therefore important to think

how climate change may affect the woodland especially how the risk form pest and diseases may

impact. The literature discusses that woodlands may face risks from diseases and pests more common

to warm climates. The ways in which land managers could adapt woodland management to build

resilience to climate change are listed below:

- Utilising non-native species.

- Buffer zones around broadleaved and ancient woodlands.

- Increase genetic diversity of existing woodlands.

- Contingency planning for outbreaks

- Short Rotation Forestry

- Silvilcultural practices

- Natural selection


- Use of Integrated Pest Management Control

- Use “citizen science” to help identify tolerant trees

Research is ongoing into the types and extent of pest, disease and weed impact upon different crops,

livestock and woodland habitats. There is a significant amount of research underway which aims to

model disease spread and impact under different climate scenarios. As well as this significant efforts

are going in to mapping confirmed outbreaks to inform research. Effort is being given to developing

new herbicides, pesticides and fungicides as a response to new disease and to tackle resilience that

pests, disease and weeds may have built up resilience to existing varieties. As well as this thought is

being given to the active management steps farmers can take to prepare their farms for expected

changes. This body of work is growing rapidly and it is important to keep informed about ongoing work

to inform decisions in the Cheviot Hills.

This report has highlighted the fact that there are some gaps in research some of these involve the

need for high level research into modelling and developing new treatments. Others could be

implemented at the Cheviot Hills scale. These include:

- Set up a system for monitoring the confirmed incidences of pest, diseases and weed

outbreaks in the Cheviots to allow detailed mapping of disease spread. This information could

then be used to inform early warning systems to help farmers take steps to minimise risks.

- Conduct studies into how disease outbreak has been handled in the Cheviots in the past to

learn lessons from these events with the aim of better positioning the Cheviots to deal with

outbreaks in the future.

- Participate in existing projects that aim to capture data on outbreaks through farmer and

citizen reporting. Cheviot Futures could promote this participation to help build the data set

for the Cheviots.

Key to building the resilience to pest, disease and weed outbreaks is equipping those responsible for

land management and livestock management decisions with the knowledge and understanding to

make informed decisions. In order to improve uptake of adaptations extension work will be required

to allow farmers to make informed decisions. Organisations, such as Cheviot Futures, will therefore

have an important role in ensuring gaps in knowledge are met through research and in disseminating

findings and information to farmers.


Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 2

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 6

1.1 Terms of Reference ................................................................................................................... 6

1.2 Climate Change .......................................................................................................................... 6

2. Background to Agriculture in the Cheviots ............................................................................................ 8

3. Potential Climate Changes in the Cheviot Hills ................................................................................... 12

Rainfall in the Region ........................................................................................................................... 12

Severe Rainfall Events ......................................................................................................................... 12

Average Temperature .......................................................................................................................... 13

Temperature Range ............................................................................................................................. 13

Extreme Temperatures ........................................................................................................................ 13

4. Summary of research and literature relating to Pests and Diseases................................................... 14

4.1 Likely impact of climate change on pest and diseases on Arable Crops ................................. 14

Diseases ........................................................................................................................................... 15

Pests ................................................................................................................................................. 17

Weeds .............................................................................................................................................. 18

Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest, diseases and weeds in arable crops. ..... 20

4.2 Likely impact of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds in Grassland. ............... 22

Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest and diseases in grassland. .... 22

4.2 Likely impact of climate change on pest and diseases on the Livestock Sector. .................... 24

4.4 Likely impact of climate change on pest and diseases on Woodlands. ........................................ 31

Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest and diseases in woodlands. .................... 36

4.5 Ongoing Research and Initiatives .................................................................................................. 38

5. Potential Research opportunities and field trial activities in the Cheviots. ........................................ 40

Monitoring. .......................................................................................................................................... 40

Lessons Learnt. .................................................................................................................................... 40

Ongoing Projects ................................................................................................................................. 40

6. Recommendations and Conclusions.................................................................................................... 41

7. References ........................................................................................................................................... 42


1. Introduction

1.1 Terms of Reference This project has been commissioned by Cheviot Futures to draw together the relevant research

available to date, which examines the expected impacts of climate change on pest, weeds and disease

pressure in the Cheviot Hills region. The remit is to focus attention on the implications of pests and

disease in the future, although these may be influenced indirectly by other factors, such as cropping

changes.

Pest and disease pressure is the situation where the incidence of negative impact to cropping or

livestock increases. It may well be a case that some diseases or pests that have presented a problem

in the past disappear whilst new ‘Alien’ threats are introduced to the region as a result of a changed

climate. Existing issues such as liver Fluke may become more widespread and also more severe as the

environment favors the parasite lifecycle. Changes to cropping rotations will indirectly affect the

severity of Pest and Disease incidents, for instance a climate which favors the growing of Wheat will

lead to more associated pest problems. In the main this report does not cover these changes to

cropping as a separate report on resilient cropping has been prepared.

This project will contribute to Cheviot Futures aims to draw together and disseminate information

relevant to managing the Cheviot landscape under changing climate conditions.

This report is a collation of current research and guidance relating to reducing the impact of pest and

disease in the context of the current land use of the Cheviot Hills. It will provide information and

guidance to help inform how best to limit the threats of increased or new pests and disease to both

livestock and cropping businesses in the Cheviots. Where appropriate this report provides directional

guidance as to which pressures will have the greatest significance to cropping, forestry and livestock

and how threats cane be managed.

1.2 Climate Change There is clear scientific evidence that the climate of the world and the British Isles is changing. The

latest and fifth assessment (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950’s changes are unprecedented over

decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have

diminished, sea level has risen and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased.” 1

It is well acknowledged that climate changes will impact upon agriculture. In recent years there has

been evidence of impacts of climate change with events such as the wet summers of 2012, the 2003

autumn floods and the hot summer of 2003 all having repercussions for agricultural production. 2 It is

expected that continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further climate changes and

resulting impacts on agriculture.

Temperatures between 2016 and 2035 are expected to rise between 0.3 and 0.7 degrees and it is

likely that there will be more frequent hot extreme events to contend with and the occasional cold

winter extremes. It is expected that there will be an increase divergence in wet and dry regions and

1 IPCC. (2013) Climate Change: the Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working

Group I of the Fifth Assessment Report for IPCC 2 ADAS. (2008) Climate Change and Agriculture in North West England. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigations.


between wet and dry seasons3. These climate changes will all have impacts on agricultural systems and

therefore thought is needed as to the best way to adapt agricultural systems to meet the challenges

and opportunities that climate change presents.

The key changes that will impact on the United Kingdom have been summarised by Oxford University’s

Environmental Change Institute via the UK Climate Impact Programme. 4 The headlines are as follows:

All regions in the UK have experienced an increase in average temperatures

between 1961 and 2006 across all seasons. Increases range from 1.0oC and

1.7oC;

All regions have experienced an increase in winter rainfall from heavy

precipitation events;

In summer all regions except the North East and Scotland show a decrease in

precipitation;

Severe windstorms around the UK have become more frequent;

Sea level surface temperatures have increased by 0.7oC and sea levels have

risen annually by approximately 1mm;

The annual number of days with air frost has reduced in all regions between

1961 and 2006. There are around 20 – 30 fewer days of air frost per year;

There has been a slight increase in average annual precipitation in all regions

between 1961 and 2006.

3 IPCC. (2013) Climate Change: the Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working

Group I of the Fifth Assessment Report for IPCC 4 UKCIP. Recent Climate Trends [online] University of Oxford, Environmental Change Institute


2. Background to Agriculture in the Cheviots The Cheviot Hills for the purpose of this project are defined as the area including the Upper Coquet

Valley, northwards taking in North Northumberland and an area north of the Scottish border in

Roxburghshire. The area in question is diverse with a large area of hill and moorland, leading down on

the eastern edge of the Cheviots to include areas of lowland river floodplain.

The map below indicates the area in question:

Altitudes range from 40m to the east of Wooler, close to Wooler Water and the River Till, to the

Cheviot peak itself at 815m, with over 20 peaks in excess of 500m in height. The area is characterised

by steep sided valleys with numerous burns flowering from the Cheviots. To the North and West as

the valleys widen out further downstream lower lying haugh land at 150 – 200m can be found.

A general assessment of the area would suggest hill and upland would be the main characteristic,

sloping down towards lighter, more productive land in the borders and to the east, with some heavier

but still productive land to the south.

Soil type will play a significant role in the potential impact of climate change on crop choice. Using the

Soilscapes viewer developed by Cranfield University5, the various soil types present in the area are

listed below:

5 Cranfield University. Soilscapes

TM [online] National Soils Research Institute.


Soil Category Fertility Location

Freely draining floodplain

soils

Moderate to high Land adjacent to the River

Tweed

Freely draining slightly acid

sandy soils

Low Upper section of River Till valley

around Wooler

Freely draining slightly acid

loamy soils

Low Area to the west of the River Till

Slowly permeable

seasonally wet acid loamy

and clayey soils

Low Around Coldstream and across

to Scottish Borders

Slightly acid loamy and clay

soils with impeded drainage

Moderate to high N.W part of Cheviots between

Kirknewton & Scottish border

Freely draining very acid

sandy and loamy soils

Low Central Cheviot area around the

highest peaks

Shallow very acid peaty soils

over rock

Low Central Cheviot area around the

highest peaks

Slowly permeable

seasonally wet slightly acid

but base rich loamy and

clayey soils

Moderate N.E part of the Cheviots

Table 1: Definitions of soil category from SoilscapesTM database

As would be expected from the above table, the more productive land is on the periphery of the

cheviots, and closer into the centre of the hills the land becomes less fertile and less manageable.

In the hill areas, the soil supports semi natural vegetation around the high moorland plateau of the

Cheviot summit itself with blanket bog, dominated by sedges, dwarf shrubs, sphagnum moss and

cotton grass found on the wet acidic peaty areas. Heather with cloudberry and cross leaved heath

characterise drier sites. Rare relict communities of alpine flora survive in patches within ravines of the

northern slopes. These mountain plants include hairy stonecrop and alpine scurvy grass.

The marginal upland areas tend to range in productivity from low to moderate to high in some areas.

On the lower hill slopes, thin slightly acidic soils support bent fescue grassland dominated by common

and velvet bent, wavy hair grass and sheep fescue. Bracken can dominate these areas of semi-

improved land. The occasional meadow of herb rich grassland still survives in the Hownam valley.


In the valley bottoms areas of permanent ploughable pasture and break crops provide summer grazing

and winter forage for livestock. Some of the higher productive land may already have field drainage

systems installed, particularly in areas of marginal arable production. With increased winter rainfall

these systems may be tested, with an additional investment required in field drainage to maintain

current production levels. The threat of winter water logging may increase the risk of fluke infection

for grazing livestock where land is wet for substantial periods. This also gives rise to potential issues

for crops, with access to fields impeded by wet conditions, chemical treatments may not be able to be

applied.

As would be expected, the majority of arable cropping is seen on the fringes of the hills to the south,

east and north of the Cheviot area, with the lighter sandier soils to the north and east also better

suited to crops such as potatoes.

Image 1: Screenshot from Magicmap showing the Soilscape data


CROP WIDESPREAD LIMITED

Wheat (spring and winter),

Barley (spring and winter),

Oats (spring and winter).

Oilseed rape - mainly winter

Potatoes

Vegetables

Lupins

Maize

Forage legumes - red clover is present in some organic systems

Forage crops

- kale, stubble turnips, chicory

Grassland – productive ryegrass

Grassland – natural and semi-natural

permanent

Heather moorland

Forestry

Table 2: The range of crops generally seen in the Cheviots

The areas in which these crops are grown tend to range in productivity from moderate to high. The

land particularly on the peripheries to the north and east of the Cheviots is classed as sandy and free

draining. These more productive soils have always seen the highest level of input in intensive, high

value crops. Therefore they could be at the highest level of risk from climate change, which would

indicate they are the most likely areas to see investment in infrastructure in order to adapt.

Much of the higher ground comprises heather moorland and acid grassland where land use is

dominated by hill sheep grazing and summer cattle grazing. On the lower slopes there are significant

numbers of rearer/finisher beef units. There are a number of large units in the borders (>400ha) with

large stock numbers (>1000 ewes, >300 suckler cows) and whilst there are large units in the

Northumberland section, many are of a more average stock size.

Over recent years, sheep numbers have reduced as stewardship schemes have made it viable to take

stock off the hills, whilst cattle numbers have reduced due to increased overhead costs and a

perceived lack of profit associated with suckler animals.

In general, it is assumed that little change in practice will be seen in the hill areas with native heather

and grassland predominating, due to the policy of protecting these habitats. The greatest change in

these areas is likely to be some re-wetting of some heather moorland areas. This may bring further

challenge to animal health, dealing with parasites which thrive in warmer wetter environments. It will

be the marginal and lowland areas of the Cheviots where we are more likely to see more direct

changes in cropping and stocking. If disease and pest pressure is so great on a high input potato crop

for example, we may see the land use change to a potentially more economically resilient grass ley.


Severe Rainfall Events

Rainfall in the Region

3. Potential Climate Changes in the Cheviot Hills

In order to provide relevant background research and recommendations it is important to understand

what climate change means at a regional level. The Cheviot region has a significant regional variation

which needs to be considered when compared to headline UK predictions. This section explores the

expected climate changes for the Cheviot Hills locality. This reveals there are indeed some key

differences which separate the region from UK wide modeling assumptions. It is also important to

bear in mind the exact impacts will also vary considerably throughout the Cheviots, depending on a

range of factors such as soil type, relief and therefore cropping.

Currently the Cheviot Hills and in particular the surrounding upland areas receive some of the highest

annual rainfalls in Northumberland. It is these areas which could see the greatest reduction in rainfall

for the region, estimated to be between 3 and 5% lower by 2050.6

The national prediction is for rainfall to become increasingly seasonal with summers some 50% drier

and becoming 40% wetter in winters over the next 75 years.7 The exact spread of this in the region will

be variable with upland areas experiencing high levels of increased winter rainfall with perhaps the

lower lying more coastal areas realising increased summer droughts.

Overall Northumberland will see slightly less rainfall during the autumn period. However this

assumption hides a high degree of variability, during spring there could be a change of 4% lower to a

6% increase in rainfall, depending on the exact location in the region6. On a national scale daily winter

rainfall will increase with a high probability of higher rainfall totals over a set number of days which is

predicted to increase the risk of winter flooding.8 Certainly with regards to fluke in livestock the

increased probability of standing water improves the habitat for the fluke lifecycle.

Modelling suggests there will be an increase in 50% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) rainfall

events across the Cheviot Hills for the entire range of duration events6. For the upland scenario the 9%

increase in 10 day duration events equates to an extra 7mm, with 1 day duration events seeing a more

modest 1mm rise by the 2050’s.

For the lower areas of the Cheviots the expectation is for only minor increases in the longer duration

extreme rainfall events and perhaps a reduction of some 2% in 1 day duration 50% AEP events in areas

such as around Berwick-upon-Tweed. Around the coast these extreme events appear to decrease at

the longer duration end of the range.

Further work suggests a decline in summer rainfall of up to 20% by the 2020’s and as much as 50% by

the 2080’s, runoff may therefore decline by at least 20% in the summer months8.

6 Climate NE. North East Climate Change Adaption Study [online] Association of North East Council

7 Gregory. P.J, Hopkins. D.W, Newton. A.C, Johnson. S.N, (2011). Mitigating and adapting to climate change,

Research Poster, Research at SCRI for Northern Britain. SCRI, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA.

8 Arkell, B., Darch G. And McEntee, P. (Eds). (2007). Preparing for Climate Change in Northern Ireland. SNIFFER,

UKCC13.


Extreme Temperatures

Temperature Range

Average Temperature

The EARWIG model predicts average daily temperature across Northumberland will increase by

around 1.7 to 1.8°C. 9This could be seen as conservative when viewed against national average

temperature rises of 3°C or more.10

Again there is expected to be a degree of variability when this overall temperature rise is recorded

over the course of the year. Average winter temperature will see the lowest increase of around a 1.2

to 1.4°C with spring temperatures only marginally more realising a 1.9 to 2.1°C increase (Northeast). It

is during the summer period where the largest increases are predicted, which some sources suggesting

a 3.5°C warmer summers over the next 75 years. In terms of what these increased average

temperatures mean for UK agriculture this represents a 4 weeks earlier spring.11

The average daily maximum temperature again reveals a consistent increase across the region with

the coastal, lowland and upland areas experiencing the same level of change of around 1.8 to 1.9°C.

In line with the average temperature the maximum daily temperature will be seen in summertime. In

this instance the uplands experience a modestly higher increase of some 2.5°C, compared to

approximately 2.2°C across the remainder of Northumberland.

The largest increase in minimum temperatures is to be observed during the autumn with around 1.9

to 2.1°C increases expected across Northumberland. As for the remaining winter months there is also

to be an increase in the daily minimum temperature. So much so that in the uplands this will increase

the average winter daily minimum temperature expected by the 2050s to above 1°C, from previously

below zero. From a farming perspective this should largely result in a reduced number of snow and

frost days across the Cheviot Hills, which could allow more survival of both pest and disease species

over the winter period.

In terms of extremes cold events the predicted temperature increase throughout all seasons across

Northumberland will limit sub-zero temperatures, particularly for coastal and lowland areas during the

spring. At the other end of the scale the likelihood of severe hot extremes will increase across all

seasons with the greatest expected increases of around 3°C in the Cheviot uplands during summer.

Recent work suggests climate focus is shifting from a basic increase in global temperature to an

increasing number of extreme global weather events. It is as yet unclear whether these are short-term

anomalies or part of the long-term climate patterns.12

9 Climate North East [online] North East Climate Change Adaption Study.

10 Hulme, M., et al. (2007). Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom. The UKCIP 02 Scientific Report.

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia,

Norwich, UK.

11 Gregory. P.J, Hopkins. D.W, Newton. A.C, Johnson. S.N, (2011) Mitigating and adapting to climate change,

Research Poster, Research at SCRI for Northern Britain. SCRI, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA. 12

Garvey, K., (2013) How to create resilient agricultural systems in a world of increasing resource scarcity and


4. Summary of research and literature relating to Pests and Diseases.

The threats from pests, weeds and diseases to crops, livestock and woodland as a result of climate

change are likely to alter significantly but there is a high level of uncertainty attached to current

predictions of the likely pest and disease burden. The number of recorded outbreaks of pests and

diseases has been rising, from an average of 150 a year over the period 1993 to 2000 to more than

200 in 2001 and some 370 in 200213. The potential economic impacts of pest and disease are huge.

For example in 2001 it was estimated that £279 million worth of potato crops in southern England

were at risk from the Colorado Beetle. As well as the economic risk from pest and disease there is also

the issue surrounding food security in the UK in the event of a large outbreak in a key crop. The

importance of protecting crops from pest and disease is reflected in the amount of research

conducted into ways to predict, reduce and build resilience to climate induced changes to pests and

disease in the UK.

This section focuses on the literature and research concerning the impact of climate change on pest,

weeds and diseases in arable and grass cropping, the livestock sector and woodlands. It is a summary

of present thinking regarding the impacts of climate change on pest and disease. It discusses the

potential threats from pest and disease occurring now and those predicted in the future and details

the potential adaptation and mitigation measures that have been put forward to prepare the

agricultural sector for the expected changes. It provides detail on some of the key research projects

conducted in relation to pest and diseases.

4.1 Likely impact of climate change on pest and diseases on Arable Crops

Arable crops grown in the Cheviots include wheat, barley, oats, oilseed rape and potatoes. Climate

changes will have an impact on the management of these crops as climate change will impact upon

the prevalence and scope of pest and diseases.

Climate change will present opportunities and challenges for the arable sector. The change in climate

over the next 50 years will see improvements in yields for some crops, but losses in others. For

example winter wheat yields are project to increase by 40-140% by 2050 compared to the 1961-90

baselines14. It will also present opportunities for novel crops to be grown in areas where climate was

previously a limiting factor. Warmer springs will lead to earlier sowings and potentially higher yields of

potatoes (up to 13-16%), and even the possibility of double cropping, as practiced already in warmer

climates. Realising these opportunities will only be possible if crops are managed effectively and this

management will include taking steps to control and minimise the risk of pest and disease.

It is widely acknowledged that climate change will lead to an increase in certain pests and diseases and

allow new or “alien” pests and diseases to survive in the UK. There is likely to be an increase in many

pest and disease problems (including ‘aliens’) due to less ‘winter kill’, earlier appearances in the spring

and summer, and more generations in a season. However, some pests and diseases will become less

climate change, Conference report 15-17 April 2013, Wilton Park Conferences

13 National Audit Office (2003) Protecting England and Wales from plant pests and diseases. London. The

Stationary Office 14

Defra (2012) Climate Change Risk Assessment for Agriculture [online] [Viewed 11-11-13) Available at: http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Module=More&Location=None&ProjectID=15747

http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Module=More&Location=None&ProjectID=15747


of a problem to the UK. The relationship between pest and disease burden and climate change is

poorly understood at present and so there is a low confidence in many of the predictions.

Crop breeding will have a significant role to play in building resilience to pest and diseases. Genetics

and crop breeding will lead to new varieties of crop more resilient to some diseases. Appropriate

arable management will also enable crops to be more resilient to pests and disease as a crop in good

condition will inherently be more resilient. A recent report produced for Cheviot Futures discusses the

steps that are being taken and can be taken to build resilience in arable cropping. This report will

therefore not focus on the issue of crop breeding or arable management as methods to build

resilience but recognises their importance. For example drought stressed crops will be more at risk

from pests and diseases, using drought tolerant varieties and managing crops by irrigation will help

reduce the risk from pest and diseases (irrigation may increase risk in some incidence). There is an

increased effort being made in breeding research programmes to looking for resilience to general

stresses and not just drought – for example flooding event are also predicted to increase. Pesticides

can currently be used to manage many of the predicted problems but changes in legislation such as

the implementation of the Sustainable Use Directive are likely to reduce the number of available

pesticides and hence reduce the ability of this management option to control pest and disease

problems.

Diseases

There is much uncertainty over the likely impact of climate change on crop pathogens. Changing crop

practices, for example the introduction of new crops or switches between spring and winter cropping

are likely to have more influence than climate changes as such. By looking at pathogens that are

already problems in warmer climates we can make some predictions about likely problems in crops

being grown in the Cheviot area. The range of crop diseases are vast and it is beyond the scope of this

project to detail the influences of climate change on all of the crop diseases. This report highlights the

expected impact on some of the diseases thought to be most important to consider in light of

expected climate changes in the Cheviots.

Brown Rust

Wheat brown rust is an example of a common pathogen of a major crop which is favoured by warm

conditions. It is a major disease threat to crops in East Anglia, but until recently, has caused minimal

economic damage in other areas of the UK with cooler climates such as the Cheviots. Cool summer

temperatures are the key reason for keeping brown rust as a low priority disease but once summer

temperatures increase as predicted then incidences of this disease may increase.

Brown rust levels are on the increase, especially following the 2007 season where a mild winter was

followed by a warm spring. The risk from brown rust will be highest where wheat is sown early in

August, as in 2013. A mild winter and a humid mild spring will also increase the risk and the disease is

already established in crops throughout the UK. Early sowing means there is no gap between cropping

seasons, providing the fungus with a green bridge to survive from one season to another. There may

be scope to look at altering cropping rotations and sowing times to help minimise disease risk to crops

and prevent disease spreading between crops. There is good resistance in some varieties which will

allow adaptation to this risk.

A study for DEFRA by ADAS and Fera between 2010 and 2011 examined the effect of brown rust on


wheat and identified risk factors to target fungicide use and assess the effects of climate change15.The

study identified major factors that influence brown rust epidemics including climate changes. These

findings were used to determine how brown rust epidemics are likely to be affected by climate

change. The research explored samples of wheat crops from the UK and Wales taken between 1991

and 2010. It concluded a high level of variability from year to year in disease epidemics. There were

higher levels of disease in the east and south east than the south west and north. As with other crop

diseases previously investigated, such as Yellow Rust, sowing date effects were noted with crops sown

in late October and November more severely affected than September sown crops16. The results

found that contrary to general opinion late sowing did not correlate with lower levels of brown rust.

Regular crop monitoring would be able to track the progress of this and other diseases, giving growers

early warning to prepare for an outbreak and use appropriate preventive measures.

Fusariums

Fusarium affects wheat, barley, oats, rye, triticale and grass all of which are grown in the Cheviots17.

Head blights including Fusarium species are not uncommon in the Cheviots. They reduce seedling

emergence and are additionally problematic as some produce mycotoxins. Fusarium graminearum

poses the greatest threat as a mycotoxin producer in mainland Europe, but is currently not common in

the UK. A future forecast shows a greater risk in the future throughout the UK. The Cheviots would

currently be classed as at low risk but this risk will rise under current predictions.

A recent report by Rothamsted Research examines the impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis

and fusarium ear blight in the UK18. It provides a useful summary of past research into this area

focusing down to the UK context. It uses a wheat growth model and developed a weather based

model to predict fusarium ear blight in the UK. The model predicts that, with climate change wheat

anthesis dates will be earlier and fusarium blights will be more severe by the 2050’s. The report

emphasizes that control of fusarium should be a high priority when considering adaptations to climate

change.

Ongoing research into the impacts of climate change on fusarium with a particular focus on the UK is

growing rapidly. The Grantham Institute for Climate Change at London Imperial College is currently

supporting a PhD student who is exploring the impact of expected climate change on Fusarium Ear

Blight in the UK 19. The University of Hertfordshire has investigated links between crop disease and

climate change which impact our food growth and production in two recent studies. Results of these

are to be published in the European Journal of Plant Pathology but are not currently available20.

15

ADAS, FERA (2011) Brown Rust of wheat: Identification of risk factors to target fungicide use and assess the effects of climate change. 16

Gladders P, Langton S, Barrie I A, Hardwick N V, Taylor M C and Paveley N D (2007) The importance of weather and agronomic factors for the over-winter survival of yellow rust (Puccinia striiformis) and subsequent disease risk in commercial what crops in England. Annals of Applied Biology 150: 371 - 382 17

HGCA, The Encyclopaedia of cereal diseases. 18

Madgwick J W, West J S, White R P, Semenov M A, Townsend J A, Turner J A, Fitt B D L (2010) Impacts of climate change on wheat anthesis and fusarium ear blight in the UK. 19

Halder, J.[online] Impact of climate change on crop diseases: Fusarium Ear Blight on UK Winter Wheat. PhD Project Imperial College London. 20

Fitt, B., West, J. and Carlton, R. (2013) New Research Links Crop Disease and Climate Change (2013) European Journal of Plant Pathology. Viewed 11-11-13


A change in climate may also increase the probability of the sowing of more susceptible hosts.

Growing maize in the rotation is a known risk factor for Fusarium production in cereals. A change to

mild weather will increase the chances of more maize being grown in the Cheviots, and hence increase

the risk of Fusarium graminearum and the mycotoxins associated with it further21.

(Image 3: Fusarium ear damage on Barley )

Pests

The impact of climate change on pests that affect crops is driven by the response of insects to

temperature and carbon dioxide. Some pests such as cereal aphids will reproduce more rapidly at the

elevated carbon dioxide levels forecast for 2050, and temperature increases will accelerate the rate of

multiplication even further, allowing more generations per season (up from 18 to 23 for some aphid

species) and earlier infestation of crops in the spring and autumn. This inevitably has consequences for

the crops that aphids infest, particularly for crops such as seed potatoes and cereals where virus

transmission by aphids is a potential threat. Increases in the rate of reproduction and the number of

generations in a season will also increase the risk of certain pests becoming resistant to insecticides.

We are already seeing 'new' pest problems arising in UK crops which are, in part, in response to

climatic changes: cabbage stem flea beetle in winter oilseed rape and gout fly in cereals for example.

Some pests such as wheat bulb fly will decrease in severity, as the wetter winters will lead to a higher

level of winter kill, making areas where the pest is currently endemic unsuitable for its survival. The

increase in winter rainfall will make the Cheviot Hills more favourable for the survival of grey field

slugs, however, the predicted reduction in summer rainfall will mitigate this to some extent.

The threat from ‘alien’ pests not yet in the UK has increased. The Cheviots climate will become more

21

HGCA risk assessment for fusarium mycotoxins in wheat http://www.hgca.com/cms_publications.output/2/2/Publications/On-farm%20information/HGCA%20risk%20assessment%20for%20fusarium%20mycotoxins%20in%20wheat.mspx?fn=show&pubcon=9293


suitable for these pests to survive and breed. For example, the climate in wide areas of the Cheviots

will be suitable for Colorado beetle survival by 2050 should it be introduced. The Colorado beetle first

discovered in America is now widely established in continental Europe. Climate change is affecting the

risk of its range extending to Britain where previously it had been too cold. The beetle has a resistance

to all major insecticide classes used in the UK and poses a significant threat to potato production in the

UK. Increased vigilance and training of import officials and increased awareness of plant health issues

through initiatives like the Plant Health Forum will help with policing and awareness of such invasive

risks.

Image 4 & 5: Potential distribution of Colorado beetle under average climate for the last 30 years (left)

and predicted climate in 2050 (right). The darker the shade of red, the more suitable the climate will

be for Colorado beetle survival and reproduction.

Weeds

In this section we examine the potential changes in weed populations related to predicted climatic

changes up to 2050 using known differences in weed species and populations between south-east

England and western European mainland and arable areas of the Cheviots.

There is an increasing trend in winter-based rotations resulting in grass weed problems such as

sterile/barren brome, and meadow-brome. This would be particularly evident on heavier soils. Some

of the brome species are warmer, drier climate species, and may be expected to increase: these

include meadow brome, rye-brome and soft brome.

Black grass is very problematic in England. The modelling just completed at SRUC suggests a small

increase in black-grass in the north east by 2050. Research is currently under way that looks into

targeted grass weed management. A consortium of commercial and academic partners led by Agrii


and including the University of Reading, Knight Farm Machinery, Syngenta, Patchwork Technology and

NIAB-TAG have been running the eye Weed Project22. This project is looking at ways to improve black

grass control by creating a practical automated weed mapping system robust enough for reliable use

on farm. The project trials the use of a camera mounted on the sprayer boom during spraying. Black

grass heads are identified and weed patches mapped. The maps can then be used for precision patch

spraying following the crop and to highlight areas of herbicide resistance. There is a long way to go

before this technology will be a functioning farm system but developments such as this will help

farmers meet some of the challenges of climate change in the future. It might be possible to extend

this system to help target other weeds in crops. As noted above, it is likely that herbicide options will

be reduced in the future through legislative changes. In addition black grass resistance to current

herbicides makes black grass management a large additional expense in growing the crops and

therefore has a large effect on the achievable margin.

Examining grass weeds from warmer zones of Europe suggests that barnyard grass and crab-grass

could become important in the UK as well as annual rye-grass in the longer term. These weeds are

more likely to cause problems in spring-sown crops such as maize, and certainly more extensive maize

growing could be possible in the Cheviots by 2050.

Image 6 & 7:. Potential distribution of black-grass under average climate for the last 30 years (left) and

predicted climate in 2050 (right).

Some weeds currently problematic in winter crops, such as annual meadow-grass, common chickweed

and ivy-leaved speedwell may not survive long into warm dry springs. On the other hand, cleavers

would still be a problem and poppies and various umbellifers and weedy crucifers may become more

serious, even in the medium term. 22

Agrii,(2013) Opening the door to precision black-grass management [Viewed 12-11-13] Available at: http://www.agrii.co.uk/blog/2013/09/27/opening-the-door-to-precision-black-grass-management/

http://www.agrii.co.uk/blog/2013/09/27/opening-the-door-to-precision-black-grass-management/


In spring crops, more field bind-weed, scarlet pimpernel and various composite species would be

expected to increase. Some species such as pigweeds already seen in south-eastern England as new

species, may become important. Other species, common in parts of continental Europe, such as

Thornapple and Black Nightshade are serious and poisonous weeds in grain, vegetable and salad

crops, and may become widespread.

Pesticides, crop adaptation and plant breeding may circumvent problems to some extent, but pests,

weeds and diseases are very resilient and will adapt to new climatic niches so ongoing research into

this area is required to keep ahead of changes to pest and disease.

Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest, diseases and

weeds in arable crops.

Adaptation Discussion

Alter timing of

sowing, harvesting

and spraying

activities.

The research has highlighted that climate change will enable sowing and

harvesting regimes to be altered for example early sowing of crops may be

possible. The combination of changing climate and altering of

sowing/harvesting dates may increase and decrease the potential risk from

different crop pathogens, diseases and weeds. Careful consideration needs to

be given to sowing and harvesting dates to ensure risk is minimised or that

crop spraying regimes are adjusted accordingly.

Use varieties of crop

more resilient to

pest, weeds and

diseases

Crop breeding and genetics is leading to the development of varieties of crops

that have resilience to certain diseases and pests. Consideration should be

given to using different varieties with resistance to diseases expected to

impact on the Cheviots.

Improve

understanding and

recognition of crop

diseases, pests and

weeds.

Farmers should take steps to improve their understanding of, ability to

recognise and knowledge of available control methods for different crop

diseases, pests and weeds. Early identification of diseases may help to

prevent losses as will taking timely and appropriate control steps.

Improved pesticide,

herbicide and

fungicide strategies

and application

techniques.

Key to controlling disease, pests and weeds will be the appropriate application

of herbicides, pesticides and fungicides. Consideration should be given to the

correct application rates and timings of applications. Reliance on forecasting

and modeling of expected diseases, pest and weeds may become more

important.

New precision techniques such as those being developed for Black grass

control may become a useful tool to better target applications and more

successfully control weeds and pests. General recognition however is that

pesticide options are likely to more limited in the future.


Utilise monitoring

and early warning

systems.

The importance of using monitoring systems and early warning systems to

flag up risks will become more important. There is a need to develop more

monitoring and early warning programmes for the diseases, pests and weeds

likely to flourish under climate change in the Cheviots. Having monitoring and

early warning systems in place will allow better use and timings of

applications and therefore improved control of pest and diseases in arable

crops.

Use of Integrated

Pest Management

Control

The use of biological controls for management of pests, diseases and weeds

will become more important. For example Integrated Pest Management (IPM)

may become more widely adopted. IPM programs use current,

comprehensive information on the life cycles of pests and their interaction

with the environment. This information, in combination with available pest

control methods, is used to manage pest damage by the most economical

means.

Consider crop

rotations.

Crop rotations should be planned to help reduce the risk of transferring crop

diseases between crops. For example the use of Maize in a rotation may

increase the risk of fusairum in cereals. Rotations should be considered over

the longer term (i.e. 10-15 year profitability) rather than for immediate profit

so that longer term health problems such as clubroot in brassicas can be

managed.

Cultivations and

Cultural controls

Farmers should aim to utilise cultivations and cultural controls as a means to

improve weed control. For example focus should be given to creating a quality

stale seedbed through good cultivation, consolidation and appropriate timing

of roundup applications.


4.2 Likely impact of climate change on pests, diseases and weeds in

Grassland. Grass is an important crop in the Cheviots and is either cut for silage or grazed. Climate change will

impact on grass growth in the Cheviots with warm dry summers reducing grass production but milder

wetter winters potentially extending the growing season. Climate change will also affect disease, pest

and weed impacts on grassland and to maintain yields these issues will need to be addressed.

The longer growing season for grass will also become a longer growing season for perennial weeds

such as broad leafed dock and creeping and spear thistles. In drier areas curled dock or musk thistle

may become an issue. New vetches, clover and species similar to dandelions are expected to flourish

particularly in the dry warm summers23.

In order to maintain grass swards and prevent weed infestation good grazing and cutting management

is required. Regular grazing or frequent cutting will help to reduce the impact of broadleaved weeds

and reduce perennial weeds such as thistles and nettles and help to reduce disease which can become

established when grass is long and laid24. Maintaining grass fertility and avoiding damage such as

poaching to swards can also help swards to be more competitive against weeds. Areas of bare ground

caused by poaching can provide ideal sites for weeds to germinate.

As with other weeds rushes can flourish on areas of bare soils so careful grassland management can

be key to preventing rush development. While the impact of climate change on rushes is less known it

is expected that the rushes winter growing season would be increased but drier summers may reduce

their spread. Maintaining good drainage, removing surface soil compaction and maintaining soil

fertility and ph to promote good grass growth will help to control rush (and other weed) development.

Where rush development is an issue topping may help to control the rush development as will the use

of persistant and aggressively tillering grass seed mixtures to aid quick establishment and provide

competition to rush seedlings25.

Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest and diseases in

grassland.


Use of Herbicides Annual weeds tend to be less of a problem as they tend to be grazed or cut out.

Perennial weeds on the other hand can be a problem and can be dealt with

through herbicide use or can be addresses by the use of crop rotation.

23

SAC Consulting (October 2007) Technical Note TN605. Impact of Climate Change in Scotland on Crops, Pests, Weeds and Disease. 24

EBLEX, Maximising the benefits of weed control in grass and forage crops. 25

Cairns, I (2013) Rush management in upland pastures, Cumbria Organic Training Technical Notes.


Regular grazing or frequent cutting.

Regular grazing and cutting reduces the impact of broadleaved weeds and reduces perennial weeds like thistles and nettle. It can also reduce disease build up; typically disease moves in when pasture grasses get long and laid.

Maintain soil fertility.

It is important to ensure adequate soil fertility: pH, lime, phosphorus and potassium. Soil P and K levels should be maintained and pH does should not fall below 5.8. On more upland areas this will be a challenging target but any effort to improve pH will help against weed development by providing optimal conditions for grass growth.

Maintain soil structure.

Ensuring fields are well drained and not compacted is essential. Poaching damages the sward surface allowing weed species, such as rushes in upland areas, to take hold. Maintaining good soil structure will be key in providing grass crops with the ideal conditions to grow.

Maintain/Increase Waterlogging restricts the accessibility of fields for grazing because of increased susceptibility to poaching, which in turn leads to more weed ingress. Wet areas are also prime breeding grounds for intermediate parasites hosts such as snails.

Check bought-in hay and straw for weeds, especially if feeding outside

Avoid bringing in products with weed contamination.

Cultivations Cultivations can be used to help manage weeds in grassland. This could include increasing time between ploughing and drilling to six weeks to reduce frit fly damage to new leys. This also gives time to kill weed seedlings through the use of stale seedbeds.


4.2 Likely impact of climate change on pest and diseases on the Livestock

Sector.

There is now increasing information to suggest that climate change is also having an effect on livestock

diseases within the Cheviot Hills and Great Britain as a whole. Changing weather patterns have the

potential to both increase the levels of existing health issues and see the emergence of new diseases

in the area. These changes can also be brought about in a number of ways, both directly and as

indirect consequences of other factors.

Climate change will directly affect the pathogen itself, altering the environment may enhance or

reduce the success of biology of individual diseases. Many diseases are spread by vectors such as flies

or midges, a climate which favours such vectors will in turn increases the spread of host diseases.

Other more indirect causes of disease spread and success of pathogens include changing farming

practice, such as movements and land use. If for example a particular area of land becomes highly

desirable for livestock farming as a result of climate change, it is probable this area will be highly

stocked by a suitable species, therefore increasing the disease pressure and likely spread within the

group.

A degree of concern is that if the effects of climate change continue to be realised, diseases including

the Scmallenberg virus will continue to become more prevalent in UK livestock26. The NFU’s chief

advisor for climate change has stated that Schmallenberg and Bluetongue has arrived in Britain from

the Continent as a result of midges surviving the warmer winters (Scurlock,2012).

Background to latest new disease threats – Bluetongue

Bluetongue is a viral infection which affects ruminants and has been shown to be transmitted by biting

midges. Some 1.5 – 2 million sheep died across Europe between 1998 and 2005 due to bluetongue

which can be transported hundreds of kilometres by virus infected vectors (Purse et al., 2005). Vector

distributions have been proven to be greatly dependent on environmental factors such as

temperature, moisture and wind27.

The bluetongue outbreak in the UK shows how new ‘Alien’ diseases can occur and this gives us a clue

as to future animal disease threats. Bluetongue virus (BTV) has been seen in Europe as far back as 75

years ago, however it was in 1998 it was reported for the first time in 20 years. Since 1998 BTV has

invaded Europe, occurring in numerous countries that have not previously reported any midge born

arboviral disease before28.

By careful surface mapping of annual minimum temperature and cross referencing this against change

in bluetongue vectors the link between BTV spread and climate warming in Europe has been shown29.

26

Scurlock J., (2012) Pulling it all together - Where to from here, Farm Cutting Carbon Toolkit conference, Oxford 27

Mellor, P.S., Boorman, J. and Baylis, M. (2000) Culicoides biting midges: their role as arbovirus vectors. Annual Review of Entomology 45, 307-340 28

Baylis, N. and Githeko, A.K. (2006) The Effects of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases of Animals. T7.3. Foresight. Infectious Diseases: Preparing for the Future 29

Purse, B.V., Mellor, P.S., Rogers, D.J., Samuel, A.R., Mertens, P.P.C. and Baylis, M. (2005) Climate change and

the recent emergence of bluetongue in Europe. Nature Reviews Microbiology 3, 171-181


The model for linking disease change and climate change is that there must be a simultaneous change

in both in the same place and in the correct direction30.

Current Disease – Schmallenberg

Fitting and supporting the BTV infection pattern is Schmallenberg, which is spreading via a similar

vector route. First observed in dairy cows in North Rhine-Westphalia and the Netherlands in 2011,

evidence of the disease was soon discovered in southern England31.

Although there will be more to be learnt from the UK outbreak in due time the clearly documented

spread of the disease highlights the locality of the initially infected areas and factors associated with

its spread.

Picture1:

Regions reporting evidence of Schmallenberg

infection in ruminants in the EU during 2011-12

What has become apparent through this latest outbreak is the need for active monitoring and

predictions of disease. This is particularly the case with Schmallenberg (SBV) as the disease symptoms

pass after several days, posing more of a threat in lost production than mortality of livestock. The

greatest risk is posed to pregnant ewes and cows which if infected at key stages of gestation can result

in abortion or even deformities of the feotus32. In this instance it is essential to forecast what the

levels of exposure to infected midges will be throughout the year. Farmers will then be well placed to

30

Rogers, D.J. and Randolph, S.E. (2003) Studying the global distribution of infectious diseases using GIS and RS. Nature Reviews Microbiology 1,231-237 31

Mason, C. (2013) Schmallenburg Virus infection in Scotland 2013, What are the risks? Power-point presentation, SAC Consulting Veterinary Services, Dumfries 32

Mason, C. (2013) Schmallenberg Virus infection in Scotland 2013, What are the risks? Power-point

presentation, SAC Consulting Veterinary Services, Dumfries


take the best most appropriate course of action depending of gestation status of livestock. Below is

one such example of map to indicate the expected levels of risk.

To date it is understood that once infected, animals develop their own natural immunity to SBV,

however the duration of this protection remains unknown33. Those animals that remain non immune

are still susceptible34.

Future Predictions for the UK

Based on what has been learnt so far on new diseases as a result of climate change it should be

possible to predict likely, forthcoming threats35. We can look at countries that, today, have the UK’s

future climate in order to do just this such as those in the Mediterranean36.

33

MSD Animal Health (2013) Schmallenburg Virus & Bovilis SBV, Your Questions Answered, MSD information

document

34 Mason, C. (2013) Schmallenburg Virus infection in Scotland 2013, What are the risks? Power-point


35 Sutherst, R.W. (1998) Implications of global change and climate variability for vector-borne diseases: generic


As discussed the UK’s climate is to get warmer, with drier summers and wetter winters. From an

animal health perspective by 2020 much of England is likely to have a similar climate to that currently

experienced in France, where the midge species Culicoides imicola is already present, therefore we are

to be at risk of any disease carried by this vector37.

As the climate continues to change as we move towards 2080 predictions, we could be invaded by

Phlebotomous sandflies which are already widespread in southern Europe, including France and

Belgium38.

It is not possible to predict the change of all disease in general, as some pathogens or parasites will be

both favoured and hampered by climate change. For instance summer mastitis will be influenced by

warmer temperatures promoting vector development, however increased summer droughts may

cause more vector mortality27.

Impacts on significant livestock disease including helminths

Many of the currently and historically important livestock diseases to the UK will have varying affects

to climate change in the medium and longer term. Helminths, parasitic worms, for instance have an

extensive impact on the UK livestock industry. Direct welfare and economic costs are incurred from

subclinical infection due to weight loss, loss of condition, decreased milk yield and abortion39, and

heavy infections can cause host mortality40. Many significant diseases spread by close contact

between animals, such as clinical mastitis may be largely unaffected. The spread of Foot and Mouth

disease via wind borne spread may be reduced as a result of warmer air temperatures41.

There has been an increase in helminths in recent years42. This has been attributed to climate change,

since the survival of the free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture, and larval

development rate is highly temperature dependent43.

approaches to impact assessments. International Journal for Parasitology 28, 935-945 36

Rogers, D.J., Randolph, S.E., Lindsay, S.W. and Thomas, C.J. (2001) Vector- borne diseases and climate change. In: Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK. Department of Health: London, 85-119 37

Baylis, N. and Githeko, A.K. (2006) The Effects of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases of Animals. T7.3. Foresight. Infectious Diseases: Preparing for the Future 38

Depaquit, J., Naucke T. J., Schmitt, C., Ferté, H. Léger, N. (2005) A molecular analysis of the subgenus Transphlebotomus Artemiev, 39

Bisset, S. A. (1994). Helminth parasites of economic importance in cattle in New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Zoology, 40

Mckellar, Q. A. (1993). Interactions of Ostertagia species with their bovine and ovine hosts. International

Journal for Parasitology, 23(4), 451-462

41 Baylis, N. and Githeko, A.K. (2006) The Effects of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases of Animals. T7.3.

Foresight. Infectious Diseases: Preparing for the Future. 42

De Waal, T., Relf, V., Good, B., Gray, J., Murphy, T., Forbes, A., & Mulcahy, G. (2007). Developing models for the prediction of fasciolosis in Ireland. 43

O’Connor, L. J., Kahn, L. P., & Walkden-Brown, S. W. (2007). Moisture requirements for the free-living development of Haemonchus contortus: Quantitative and temporal effects under conditions of low evaporation. Veterinary Parasitology, 150, 128-138.


Case Study Research – Liver Fluke

In the case of liver fluke the consequences are relatively complex due to the nature of the parasite

lifecycle. At present liver fluke is both a physically and financially damaging parasite which affected

both sheep and cattle species.

The free living stage of the lifecycle requires a host in the form of the pond snail. As this snail host

requires soil moisture this causes a strong interaction between rainfall, temperature and transmission

of the parasite. The increased warm, wet conditions of recent years have given rise to higher levels of

snail hosts and therefore a higher number of fluke outbreaks. To this end the long-term expectation is

that climate change will pose a significant relationship with the distribution and severity of liver fluke

in particular.

SRUC developed the first long-term forecast showing potential impacts of climate change on a

parasitic helminth in the UK44. Through combining a forecasting model with historic climate

researchers have highlighted the effect the changing climate over the past four decades has had on

liver fluke. This risk model has then been applied to climate change projections (UKCP09 data) in

order to create a future risk map for 2020 -2070.

The above figure shows how liver fluke risk has spread across the UK to the current situation where

large proportions of the UK can expect regular outbreaks of fluke. Looking forward the future risk

44

Fox, N. J., White, P. C. L., McClean, C. J., Marion, G., Evans, A., & Hutchings, M. R. (2011). Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk

Figure 3. The projected impacts of climate change on past and future liver fluke risk in the UK. The larger squares for future risk maps are due to the coarser resolution of

long term climate projections.


maps predict that as areas become warmer and wetter serious epidemics could become regular

events in parts of Scotland and Wales.

Alongside this is the threat that with warmer temperatures some areas will also experience longer

development windows, meaning fluke infection could take place all year round rather than just

seasonally as at present. This extension to the timing of infection periods will make the disease much

harder to control. Long term control strategies will need to be put in place alongside proactive

surveillance of the parasite. Anthelmintic use will need to be targeted at timings and areas for greater

effect and also to avoid anthelmintic resistance. For some areas the most sustainable option will be to

improve drainage on high risk fields or not allow grazing livestock access during high risk periods.

Current models45 provide the architecture to explore how climate change will influence parasite

transmission within grazing livestock systems, and could help identify opportunities for control. These

models can be made to represent different farming systems in specific regions if sufficient local data is

available for interpretation. The development and survival of parasites' free-living stages are primarily

governed by temperature and moisture availability. The more accurate the climate information is for

a given area such as the Cheviots the greater the values of the outputs are. If the information bank

can be bolstered further by input from local farmers themselves, with details such as fly strike

incidence, then it becomes possible for management guidance in real time.

Additionally, work is currently being carried out by the Disease Systems team at SRUC on the influence

of fluctuating temperature and humidity levels on hatch rate and survival of sheep nematodes. In

order to build successful prediction models so that they are representative of specific regions, both in

vitro and in situ research is required on how parasites are influenced by climatic conditions. To this

end the closer this type of work takes place to the Cheviot Hills, using local livestock genetics where

possible and environmental conditions, the more accurate the results and predictions will be.

Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest and diseases

in the livestock sector


Better use and

development of

forecasting tools

Forecasting already works effectively in predicting potential blow fly

populations which cause fly strike damage in sheep flocks, with a high

economic cost to the industry. Accurate predictions of the fly

breeding season and population surges allows for preventive

treatments of deltamethrin. New forecasting tools need to be

developed and farmers need to be encouraged to use these tools in

the management decisions that they take.

Consideration of

grazing

options/timings

Avoiding grazing or fence off wet areas of grazing to help reduce

infection risk. Lower risk areas of grazing should be identified and

used for sheep in the autumn. Clean grazing practice can be used to

reduce burdens, such as grazing susceptive young-stock on silage

aftermaths or annual rotations of fields between forage production

45

Fox, N. J., White, P. C. L., McClean, C. J., Marion, G., Evans, A., & Hutchings, M. R. (2011). Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk


and sheep and cattle grazing. The mixed grazing may also be

employed.

Improving

understanding of the

range of treatments

available

Care should be taken to treat with the right product at the right time

of year – For instance not all Flukicide products are suitable for use in

autumn and early winter. It is important to match the treatment to

the stage of the parasite you are dealing with. Different products also

have varying withdrawal periods which should be factored in.

Faecal Egg Counts Check parasite burdens through Faecal Egg Counts todetermine if

treatment is warranted. This ensures the problem is indeed actually

what was expected and also ensures that excessive chemical

treatment is not taking place, building resistance. Conducting Faecal

Egg Counts after treatment ensures the practice is working and that

parasite resistance to a particular product is not present.

Improving

understanding of the

range of diseases out

there and the

identification of

these diseases.

It is essential for farmers to know what diseases may be present on

their farms and how they can be treated. Maintaining a link with

current information from vets, advisors or forecasts to look out for

new diseases and on what their symptoms will be will be vital. Testing

may be useful tool.

Health Planning -

encourage use

farmers should

consider this as a key

option

Health planning encompasses many of the points raised such as

ensuring there are no gaps in a farms vaccine strategy that may lead to

disease outbreaks. A health plan highlights areas of poor productivity

and underlying disease that may otherwise not be noticed. Health

Planning is key to building on farm resilience to pest and disease.

Vaccination Effective vaccination and quarantine strategies reduce the spread of

infection across the country and therefore allow more effective

reduction or eradication of disease. Adopting closed herd/flock

policies avoids buying in additional health problems which are

expensive to treat and risk the existing livestock.


4.4 Likely impact of climate change on pest and diseases on Woodlands.

The changing climate presents a challenge for woodland planning and woodland management in

England due to the projected increases in temperature, changes in the seasonality of rainfall, and an

increased frequency of extreme events which adds complexity to species selection and woodland

management practice. For the purpose of this report we will only be addressing native woodland

(hardwood) issues due to the extensive research carried out by Forest Research into the commercial

impact of pest and disease on plantation species such as pine, larch, spruce and firs (softwoods). The

forest industry makes a significant contribution to UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and invasion of

pests and pathogens to the Cheviots could seriously damage standing timber currently earmarked for

local woodfuel, fencing, construction and craft markets.

Although 18% of the land area of the Scottish Borders is covered by plantation woodland, the regional

local biodiversity action plan (LBAP) estimates only 1% can be regarded as the remnants of ancient

woodland46. The Cheviot lowland native woodlands are limited to fragmented strips of farm woodland

and the riparian habitats surrounding the River Tweed and River Till. The upland areas are dominated

by birch and mixed ash woodlands, which have often been over-grazed and are fragmented in nature.

These existing native woodlands will have very little reactive capacity to increased pest and disease

infestations and likely to succumb quickly to new threats. The genetic diversity of these woodlands are

likely to be low which will increase the spread of infestation. In the lowland areas there are small

pockets of mixed broadleaved woodland containing predominantly oak, beech and yew.

There is little evidence in the UK that the prevalence and severity of outbreaks of existing forest pests

and pathogens have been directly impacted by climate change, to date. There is however, evidence

from elsewhere in the world of changes in the range of destructive outbreaks of forest insect pests. A

good example is the southern pine beetle in the southeast United States, for which the effective range

has spread north and westwards as minimum winter temperatures have increased47. Climate change

is expected to have many impacts on ancient and native woodland and most notably this relates to

increased species composition as conditions become suitable for alternative and sometimes non-

native species. Ash woodland is likely to expand along river tributaries (such as the Tweed and Till) and

ash could become more dominant in wet woodlands. We are likely to see the general expansion of

beech and yew woodlands as conditions change. Beech is already a regenerating component of many

oak woods in North England, where it’s suitability will increase further48.

Over the past decade, several new pests and diseases have been found in Great Britain, and some

have established with potentially serious economic consequences. New pests and pathogens can

reach UK shores via the ever increasing global trade in live plants and plant products as well as the

timber trade and goods of all kinds shipped in wood packaging materials. These pathways provide

increasing opportunities for pest to transfer from their native habitats and successfully establish in

46

Scottish Borders Local Biodiversity Action Plan [online] Biodiversity in the Scottish Borders – Overview and First Steps – Available at: http://www.scotborders.gov.uk/downloads/file/287/local_biodiversity_action_plan 47

EVANS, H., STRAW, N. and WATT, A. (2002). Climate change: implications for insect pests. In: Broadmeadow,

M. (ed.) Climate change: impacts on UK forests. Forestry Commission Bulletin 125. Forestry Commission,

Edinburgh. pp. 99–118. 48

RAY, D., WAINHOUSE, D., WEBBER, J. and GARDINER, B.(2010). Impacts of climate change on forests and forestry in Scotland. Report compiled for Forestry Commission Scotland. Forest Research, Roslin

http://www.scotborders.gov.uk/downloads/file/287/local_biodiversity_action_plan


new areas.

During 2006, several pests made national headlines. On horse chestnut, a significant ornamental tree

species, both bleeding canker and the horse chestnut leaf miner were widely reported. First described

in Macedonia in 1985, leaf miner was detected in Great Britain in 2002 in Wimbledon and has spread

rapidly over the past decade. The use of smart phone technology has been incorporated into the

Conker Tree Science project by the Universities of Bristol and Hull through the development of the

Leaf Watch app which can be downloaded to Android and Apple devices and used to identify infected

trees and submit geo-located leaf photos49.

Legend

The number of pins represents the number

of results submitted in a nearby area. The

colour of the pin represents the maximum

amount of damage reported amongst these

results.

Data of horse chestnut leaf miner sightings

uploaded to Leaf Watch app during July 2012

Oak processionary moth, native to southern Europe made headlines when it was found in London due

to its irritating hairs and adverse reactions it can provoke when in contact with people, as well as its

potential to severely damage oaks. Introduced species of the fungal pathogens Phytophthora that

include P. ramorum, the causal agent of the disease known as ‘sudden oak death’ in California, are a

continuing cause for concern because of their potential to adversely affect trees in urban and rural

environments. None of these significant pests are native to Britain and have been imported from

different parts of the world, often with warmer climates than Britain. In these cases climate change

has not been the main cause of introduction, but can be an exacerbating factor in the spread of the

pest and disease once they reach UK shores.

In addition to dealing with the above, the citrus longhorn and Asian longhorn beetles continue to be

intercepted; both of which have the potential to be very damaging. Southern European cicadas now

occur in Kent, and the plane lace-bug was found in 2006 by Defra plant health and seeds inspectors to

49

Conker Tree Science - http://leafwatch.naturelocator.org/

http://leafwatch.naturelocator.org/


be breeding and causing damage to plane trees in Bedfordshire50. The lists of intercepted and, more

significantly, established pests and pathogens grow each year and these changes are accelerating, as

global trade expands.

Although it is impossible to be precise over its future, lowland mixed deciduous woodland is likely to

continue as prevalent woodland type across the UK, but tree species may change. The greatest threat

to the UK’s native woodland habitat probably comes from the potential impacts of pest and disease

outbreaks, particularly where species diversity is limited. The persistence of birch in upland birchwood

habitats is unlikely to be challenged by climate change as currently projected. However, Ray (2008a)

noted the recent planting and limited tree species diversity that might render these woodlands

vulnerable to pest/disease impacts or the effects of extreme climatic events51.

Predicting changes to the impact of specific insect pests and tree diseases on woodlands is difficult

because of the delicate balance between pest/pathogen, host tree and natural enemies. However, it is

possible to make two observations:

1. Stressed trees are more susceptible to insect pests and diseases;

2. The majority of insect pests that currently affect UK forestry are likely to benefit

from climate change as a result of increased activity and reduced winter

mortality52.

The occurrence of fatal pathogens may worsen, while some insect pests that are present at low levels,

or currently not considered important, may become more prevalent. Examples of the latter include

defoliating moths and bark beetles. In addition, the ‘effective’ range of existing pests or pathogens

may change, including a northwards expansion of those with a southern distribution and the likely

appearance of some from continental Europe.

CASE STUDY

Chalara dieback of ash could pose a significant threat to native woodlands in the Cheviots and it

would be useful to monitor the outcome of a new Defra funded initiative involving Earth Trust,

Future Trees Trust, Sylva Foundation and Forest Research, which aims to identify ash trees with

good tolerance to Chalara ash dieback. The trees with identified resilience to the fungus which

causes the disease will be selected for a breeding programme which will enable rapid

production of resilient trees53. The project will also employ citizen science to help identify

tolerant trees. The public are encouraged to get involved by tagging an ash tree near them and

reporting on the tree’s progress. Information can be found on the project

website www.livingashproject.org.uk , which links to the woodland survey.

50

Central Science Laboratory (2006) Platanus lace bug – Corythucha ciliat. Plant Pest Notice. Available at: http://www.fera.defra.gov.uk/plants/publications/documents/factsheets/platanusLaceBug.pdf 51

RAY, D., WAINHOUSE, D., WEBBER, J. and GARDINER, B.(2010). Impacts of climate change on forests and

forestry in Scotland. Report compiled for Forestry Commission Scotland. Forest Research, Roslin 52

STRAW, N.A. (1995). Climate change and the impact of the green spruce aphid, Elatobium abietinum (Walker),

in the UK. Scottish Forestry 31, 113–125. 53

Forestry Commission (2013) Living Ash Project – Securing the future for Ash trees in Britain. Available at: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/newsrele.nsf/web-allbysubject/A6BCC0CE0794ABC180257C2200422764

http://www.livingashproject.org.uk/

http://www.fera.defra.gov.uk/plants/publications/documents/factsheets/platanusLaceBug.pdf

http://www.forestry.gov.uk/newsrele.nsf/web-allbysubject/A6BCC0CE0794ABC180257C2200422764


Confirmed infection sites of Ash dieback at 11-11-13

Wider environment Recently planted site

Firm predictions cannot be made, although expert judgment by forest pathologists and entomologists

allows some assessment to be made of changes in the prevalence of certain diseases and insect pests,

based on their current distribution and associated climatic conditions, known biology and

epidemiology. Considerable caution should be exercised in extrapolating this analysis to a future

climate due to the variation in prediction scenarios. For some pests and diseases, likely trends cannot

be predicted even on the basis of expert judgment; in this category, and of particular concern, is

Phytophthora ramorum, the agent responsible for sudden oak death. The higher level of uncertainty

associated with the biology of fungi compared to insect pests is reflected in the less specific

predictions of future trends in the incidence of fungal diseases and disorders.

Climate change will influence the distribution, abundance and performance of forest insect pests, with

their impact dependent on their feeding habits, life cycle characteristics and the relationship between

individual climatic variables and population dynamics54. As a general guide, rising temperature will

have its greatest impact on the development rate of insect populations, leading to faster insect

development, a larger number of generations in a year, as well as range extensions. Insect groups

most likely to be affected are aphids, bark beetles, sawfies, weevils and wood-boring lepidoptera.

Drought stress caused by warmer summers will cause trees to be more susceptible to pest and

disease. More general forest damage resulting from windstorms or forest fires is also likely to promote

outbreaks of certain pests such as bark beetles and these climatic disturbance events are predicted to

become more frequent as the UK climate changes.

54

MASTERS, G.J., BROWN, V.K., CLARKE, I.P., WHITTAKER, J.B. and HOLLIER, J.A. (1998). Direct and indirect

effects of climate change on insect herbivores: Auchenorrhyncha (Homoptera). Ecological Entomology 23, 45–

52.


CASE STUDY This European Regional Development Fund

project assess how climate change will

influence the damage to our trees and

forests by pests and using various

prediction models aims to develop the

most sustainable methods for detection and management based on microbial control agents.

The project will offer solutions based on nature rather than reliance on chemical insecticides,

using the Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Toolbox approach to provide natural defences

such as bacteria, fungi, viruses and insect parasitic nematodes.

Forest and woodland managers need to address long term impacts as trees are not grown on annual

rotations like agricultural crops and require 20 -30 year rotations for softwood and up to 80 year

rotations for hardwoods. Careful consideration needs to be taken when planting new areas of

woodland to ensure the most suitable sites in terms of aspect, soil structure, gradient, altitude and

landscape characteristics to ensure the most appropriate areas are being afforested. Woodland

managers needs to adopt long term approach to mitigate the effects of climate change and new

planting now needs to consider climate change scenarios for 2070 onwards.

Warmer summers could lead to increased outbreak of wildfire, especially in woodlands that are

heavily visited and whilst this could eliminate some diseases vectors it would significantly affect the

age structure of the woodland and make it more prone to future attack due to added stress caused by

regeneration and competition.

It’s important to look at non-native species as climate changes and use new species which are thriving

in parts of the world where climate is similar i.e. Mediterranean areas. It will be important for

woodland managers in the Cheviots to recognise sensitive sites and trial adaption methods with

detailed documentation of the species used, woodland management techniques and monitor

outcomes.

There is a high proportion of undermanaged and neglected woodlands across the UK which may never

be able to adapt to climate change due to lack of management. A proportion of woodlands will also be

managed by farmers and only serve the purpose of stock shelter in winter or field boundaries and will

never be managed with traditional woodland management practices.

For an area as rural as the Cheviots it would be useful to run some basic woodland management

courses for farmers and small holders to understand the benefits of productive woodland

management and how they can protect their own trees against pest and disease. Cheviot Futures

could work with existing local organizations such as: Borders Forest Trust and The Tweed Forum to

help disseminate messages from project findings and work together to share resources, knowledge

and contacts. There is a general lack of public awareness of the prevalent tree pests and pathogens

and increasing education of land managers will help to identify the early stages of advancement of the

key broadleaf diseases which could be recorded locally by Cheviot Futures through these of a simple

recording database or smart phone app.


Adaptation measures available building resilience to pest and diseases

in woodlands.


Utilising non-native

species

Useful to look at Mediterranean examples.

Select planting stock with an origin of between 20 and 50 latitude of the site,

but take care to avoid areas of high frost occurrences.

Buffer zones around

broadleaved and

ancient woodlands

Appropriate gaps between existing woodlands can slow the rate of

transmission of windbourne pests and pathogens, but can also benefit wildlife

habitat network. A buffer zone of less precious species around the edge of

ancient woodlands could be sacrificed as more prone to disease and could

protect ancient trees.

Increase genetic

diversity of existing

woodlands

Mixed species woodlands can slow the progress of infection.

Encouraging wider use of mixed tree species when restocking after felling and

investment in restocking ash/oak/larch which has immunity to known

pathogens i.e. Living Ash Project using resistant seedlings / transplants.

Concept could be transferred to other species.

Contingency

planning for

outbreaks

Woodland managers need clear action plans to deal with outbreaks and report

issues to Forest Research. General increase in public awareness and vigilance

will assist research projects with geographic spread of infection and highlight

priority areas for resources.

Short Rotation

Forestry

Harvesting trees at a younger age (between 5 and 15 years) would allow

frequent replanting with the most genetically diverse and resistant saplings

and allow quick removal of infected trees. Economic impacts upon timber

production would also be minimised. Species such as willow, poplar and

miscanthus have all been successfully grown in the UK.

Silvilcultural

practices

Mounding when planting could help draining during wet winters and conserve

water during warm summers. Early intervention through cleaning and disposal

of potentially infected material out of existing plantations.

Reduce risk through shorter rotations, species diversification and early

thinning. Also consider self-thinning mixtures and coppicing techniques.

Take care when planting in autumn and spring due to higher chance of fungal

spores being transported by wind to new sites.

Natural selection Identification of resilient trees is needed for a genetically diverse and resilient population for future productive woodland planting. Timely identification of resistant trees and using them in a breeding programme will enable rapid production of resilient trees.

Use of Integrated

Pest Management

Control

The use of biological controls for management of pests, diseases and weeds will become more important. For example Integrated Pest Management (IPM) may become more widely adopted. IPM programs use current, comprehensive information on the life cycles of pests and their interaction with the environment. This information, in combination with available pest control


methods, is used to manage pest damage by the most economical means.

Use “citizen science” to help identify tolerant trees

By increasing public awareness of the main forest and woodland diseases it would be possible to develop a system for people to report trees displaying resilient properties or those being infected. This information would build an accurate picture of disease progress, but would need careful monitoring by qualified forestry experts.


4.5 Ongoing Research and Initiatives

The majority of research that examines pest, disease and weed impacts on arable grassland, livestock

and woodland involves developing models of expected patterns of change under different climatic

situations. The models aim to predict the range and severity of pest, disease and weed outbreaks

under different climate change scenarios. These models are extremely useful in determining what the

main concerns may be for the agricultural sector going forward. They therefore go some way to

helping prioritise areas for research into adapting to expected changes, but care must be taken not to

rely fully on the accuracy of the findings due to the high number of variables involved.

Research into modelling is ongoing and models of different diseases, pests and weeds are being

produced. Currently some are at initial stages of development and others have results in the public

domain. What is clear is that there is still a need to develop further models and to continue to rework

models if key variables alter. The need for accurate parasite forecasts which farmers can access in real

time in order to prevent potential outbreaks will be even more important than it is today. Current

examples of successful schemes already exist such as the Nadis forecast which already works

effectively in predicting potential blow fly populations which cause fly strike damage in sheep flocks,

with a high economic cost to the industry. Accurate predictions of the fly breeding season and

population surges allows for preventative treatments of deltamethrin, which although expensive is still

more cost effective than the cure and lost productivity.

A project by SRUC and BioSS is developing parasite transition models by incorporating the parasite

population both in the hosts and on pasture, and the grazing behaviour and management of livestock

to allow bespoke control strategies to be explored for different farming systems. For the

parameterisation and validation of these models for specific farming regions, field studies exploring

different control options are required. An example of such a field study is the work on sustainable

worming being carried out at the Moredun Research Institute under the GLOWORM project. Further

specific projects tailored to regions such as the Cheviots will be beneficial to safeguard against

increased disease challenge

A number of existing local and national organisations, universities and initiatives are researching pest

and disease impacts of climate change it may be beneficial for Cheviot Future to form working

partnerships with some of these:

Local National

Borders Forest Trust Woodland Trust

Tweed Forum Forest Research

Northumberland National Park Farming Futures

Universities & Research Food & Environment Research Agency (FERA)

Aberystwyth Centre of Excellent for UK Farming

Newcastle Scottish Natural Heritage / Natural England


Scottish Borders/Northumberland Council

Scottish Forest Alliance

NOTE: this table is not exhaustive, but merely and overview of the key organisations for potential partnership working

Research mapping the spread of diseases from actual recorded cases of outbreaks of disease is also

underway and will provide useful clues as to how diseases spread. In the case of the Scmallenberg,

while challenges exist in mapping the 2012 outbreak, mapping efforts have provided useful clues as to

how it spread. Research will be ongoing and will be vital in informing early warning systems to allow

farmers to make management decisions such as vaccinating herds in future outbreaks of Scmallenberg

or applying pesticides. From the research discussed it is apparent much can be learnt from previous

disease patterns.

It is evident from the literature reviewed that there is less formal research into how to prevent and

tackle outbreaks of disease, pests and weeds. Studies into these areas are limited mainly due to the

complexities and inherent risks associated with conducting investigations into pest and diseases. This

is not to say that steps are not being taken and research into vaccinations for livestock diseases and

new herbicides to treat new invasive weed varieties for example is underway but this is very specialist

and results of such research is not widely available. There is extensive research into developing new

crop varieties and this includes efforts to build resilience to disease into crops. The Cheviot futures

report, Climate Change Resilient Cropping, provides details on the range and extent of work being

completed in this area55.

There is a large amount of advice available to farmers concerning the management steps that they can

take and procedures that they can put in place to minimise risks from pests, diseases and weeds. This

advice is largely based on experience of outbreaks and lessons learnt. It is less informed by formal

research programmes and field trials.

55

Cheviot Futures (2013) Climate Change Resilient Cropping


5. Potential Research opportunities and field trial activities in the

Cheviots. Research into pest, disease and weeds has largely been done at a national scale using modelling,

national mapping of confirmed disease spread and research in lab situations. It is inherently more

difficult to conduct field trials into pest disease and weeds as introducing a pest, disease or weed into

an uncontained environment poses significant risks of uncontrolled spread. The Cheviots have scope

to feed into existing projects through reporting and to also conduct their own monitoring of pest,

disease and weeds.

Monitoring. An opportunity in the Cheviots would be to set up a system for monitoring the confirmed incidences of

pest, diseases and weed outbreaks in the Cheviots to allow detailed mapping of disease spread. This

information could then be used to inform early warning systems to help farmers take steps to

minimise risks. Information collected on disease, pest and weed occurrence at local scale would be a

useful set of data to have especially if it was collected over a number of years. It may provide useful

information informing how disease spreads in local areas and therefore help to influence the

development of new management techniques and methods to prevent disease spread in the Cheviots.

Lessons Learnt. Often the best information on dealing with disease outbreak actually comes from critically reviewing

the aftermath of outbreaks and learning lessons on what worked and did not work to contain disease

outbreak and deal with the outbreak. A recent example of this would be the lessons learnt from the

2001 foot and mouth outbreak which has been used to inform contingency planning and disease

control methods currently recommended. Opportunities for research may therefore lie with

conducting studies into how disease outbreak has been handled in the Cheviots to learn lessons from

these events with the aim of better positioning the Cheviots to deal with outbreaks in the future.

Ongoing Projects There is significant scope for the Cheviots area, led by Cheviot futures, to become involved in on going

projects. For example SAC is currently involved in a pilot project where by farmers are encouraged to

input data on areas such as fly strike incidences. This reporting will help to build up a data bank for

future reference and has the potential to provide immediate and longer term improvements to health

planning. This holistic approach has real potential merit for the future to provide immediate and

longer term improvements to health planning. It will be beneficial for groups such as Cheviot Future

to promote this approach, where farmers can be involved in regional forecasts and gain specific

feedback for their businesses in order to improve disease resilience. In regards to woodlands there is

also scope for the Cheviot areas to feed into existing projects such as the Living Ash Project. The more

data that is imputed for the Cheviots area will only help develop an understanding of disease spread in

the Cheviots.


6. Recommendations and Conclusions Research and investigation into the impact of climate change on pest, disease and weeds is crucial to

safeguarding agricultural production into the future. Considerable efforts are going into modeling the

likely spread and occurrence of pest, disease and weeds in light of expected climate change. This

includes the modeling of known diseases to the UK and the modeling of “alien” species that may come

to the UK and thrive in the UK given changes to our climate in coming years.

As well as efforts going into modeling disease spread research is occurring to map existing disease

outbreaks to better understand disease spread. Lessons are also being learnt as to how to best deal

with and minimise outbreaks of pest, disease and weeds by examining lessons learnt from outbreaks

that occur in the UK. This information is vital in developing management systems and contingency

plans to reduce the risks to UK agriculture.

The Cheviot Hill area is unique in the fact half of the land area lies in Scotland and half in England and

this provides unique challenges for developing an area wide project due to differing funding,

governance and priorities in each country. This issue may be compounded in 2014 with the

referendum on Scottish independence and caution needs to be taken in developing projects before

this time.

There are areas of research into pest, disease and weeds that would benefit from further

investigation. There is a need to model different pathogens to explore their potential impact on the

UK, research is needed to develop new pesticides, herbicides, fungicides and vaccines to respond to

changes in diseases and resilience to existing products. In relation to the Cheviots further research

would be beneficial into how disease, pests and weeds spread locally and how effective local

responses to disease occurrence have been and what lessons can be learnt.

More work is also required into steps that farmers can take on their farms to build their resilience to

pest, disease and weeds. There are many steps farmers can take that are documented in the research

but further investigation and research may unearth new options that could be taken to good effect.

As well as developing new adaptations the most pressing issue is to get farmers to actually consider

implementing the existing adaptations that have been put forward. Many of the adaptations that can

be taken will help to build resilience to pest, disease and weeds however there is still reluctance to

take these steps due to the level of uncertainly felt concerning reliance on disease models and climate

predictions. Improving knowledge and understanding amongst farmers of climate change and the

potential pest, disease and weed risks that may become a problem will help to promote the benefits

of taking some of these steps on farm now rather than delaying. Generating “buy in” by encouraging

farmers to become involved in projects through reporting will also help to engage with farmers on

these issues. Organisations, such as Cheviot futures will have an important role in spreading the

message about the importance of farmers taking a proactive rather than reactive stance to climate

change.


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