Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern ... · in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems ... Rustad, L.E., J.M.Melillo, M.J. Mitchell, I. J. Fernandez,

Climate Change Researchin Northeastern US and

Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems

Lindsey RustadUSDA Forest Service

October 26, 2005, Albany New York

Overview• Set the Stage – Climate Change

• Overview of Regional Research

• A New Synthesis and Outreach Project

Keeling Curve

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Over the Last 1000 Years

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over the last 160,000 years and the next 100 years

Time (thousands of years)160 120 80 40 Now

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

CO2 in 2100(with business as usual)

Lowest possible CO2stabilisation level by 2100

CO2 now

CO

2co

ncen

tratio

n (p

pmv)

The Greenhouse EffectSolar

radiation

CO2

Time (thousands of years)160 120 80 40 Now

–10

0

10

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Temperature in 100 yeas

Temperature

difference

from now °C

CO

2co

ncen

tratio

n (p

pmv)

CO2 in 100 yearsVariations of the Earth’s surface temperature for the past 160,000 years

Climate has changed globally….

0.6oC increase in global mean temperature

Change in magnitude and distribution of precipitation

(IPCC, 2001)

Climate has changed regionally…

0.4oC increase in mean annual temperature

4 - 20% increase in mean annual precipitation

Increased variability in both temperature and precipitation

(NERA, 2001)

Indicators of Climate Change(Tom Huntington et al.)


7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ua A

vera

ge H

eatin

g D

egre

e D

ays

(>65

F)

Average HDD

9-yr moving avg HDD

Average of 8 Sites in ME, USHCN Data Sum of Days*degrees<65 F

ACADIA NATIONAL PARK

EASTPORT

FARMINGTON

GARDINER

HOULTON 5N

LEWISTON

ORONO

PORTLAND WSFO AP

8 Sites in ME • Heating Degree Days

• Heating Degree Days

• Mean Annual Sea Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, Me


•Boothbay Harbor, Me

6

7

8

9

10

11

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

pera

ture

(ÞC

)

Boothbay Harbor, ME


• Mean Annual Sea Surface Temperature, Boothbay Harbor, ME

• Water Temperature at the Wild River, ME



Wild River, ME




• Ice Thickness, Piscataquis River, ME



Piscataquis River, ME




• Ice Thickness, Piscataquis River, ME

• Day of first bloom, Lilac, NE USA



Lilac Phenology

Clean Air/Cool Plant

Climate will continue to change globally….


1.4 to 5.8 oC increase in mean annual temperature

(IPCC, 2001)



Change in quantity and distribution of precipitation

(IPCC, 2001)



Change in quantity and distribution of precipitation

Increased frequency and magnitude of severe weather events including droughts, floods, and HURRICANES!

(IPCC, 2001)

Climate will continue to change regionally….

3.1 to 5.3oC increase in mean annual temperature

10-30% increase in precipitation

Increased frequency of drought (Canadian Model)

Greater intra- and inter-annual climate variability

(NERA, 2001)

So what?

So what?

Temperature and moisture are two of the fundamental drivers of all chemical and biological processes

The Research• Experimental Manipulations

• Gradients

• Biological Observations

• Modeling

Experimental Manipulations

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MGS

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Huntington Wildlife Forest

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Harvard Forest

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Howland Forest

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MEGS

# Ecosystem warming sites

Rustad, L.E., J.M.Melillo, M.J. Mitchell, I. J. Fernandez, P. A. Steudler, and P. J. McHale. 2000. Effects of soil warming on C and N cycling in Northern U.S. forest soils. In: Mickler, R., R. Birdsey, and J. Hom (eds.).pp.357-381. Responses of Northern U.S. Forests to Environmental Change. Springer-Verlag New York Inc.

Regional Synthesis• Temperature


• Temperature

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MGS

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Harvard Forest

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Howland Forest

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MEGS


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Toolik Lake (2 sites)

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MN Peats

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BOREAS

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MGS

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TERA

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Ecocells

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Jasper Ridge

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RMBL

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Tallgrass Prairie (2 sites)

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Harvard Forest

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Howland Forest

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MEGS

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Great Dun Fell

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Shortgrass Steppe (2 sites)

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ORNL (3 sites)

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Rio Mayo

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Ny Alesund

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Clocaenog (VULCAN)

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BCCIL

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Wytham

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Abisko (4 sites)

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Flakaliden

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CLIMEX

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Mols (VULCAN)

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Kiskun Sag (VULCAN)

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Garraf (VULCAN)

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Capo Caccia (VULCAN)

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Oldebroek (VULCAN)

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McMurdo Dry Valleys

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Inner Mongolia Grassland


Rustad, L.E., J. Campbell, G.M. Marion, R.J. Norby, M.J. Mitchell, A.E. Hartley, J. H.C. Cornelissen, J. Gurevitch, GCTE-NEWS. 2001. A Meta-analysis of the response of soil respiration, net N mineralization, and aboveground plant growth to experimental ecosystem warming.Oecologia 126: 543-562.


• Temperature

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MGS

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Harvard Forest

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Howland Forest

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MEGS


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MN Peats

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BOREAS

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MGS

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TERA

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Ecocells

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Jasper Ridge

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RMBL

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Harvard Forest

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Howland Forest

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MEGS

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Great Dun Fell

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ORNL (3 sites)

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Rio Mayo

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Ny Alesund

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Clocaenog (VULCAN)

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BCCIL

#

Wytham

#

Abisko (4 sites)

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Flakaliden

#

CLIMEX

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Mols (VULCAN)

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Kiskun Sag (VULCAN)

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Garraf (VULCAN)

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Oldebroek (VULCAN)

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McMurdo Dry Valleys

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Inner Mongolia Grassland


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$

$

$$

$$$$ $

$

$$$ $

$

$

$$$$$

$

$$

$$

$$$ $$

Ñ ÑÑÑÑÑ ÑÑ

ÑÑÑ

ÑÑ

ÑÑ

Ñ

Ñ ÑNNNNN NN

N

N

N

NN

N

NNN

NNNNNNNN N

N

N

N

N#


#

MN Peats

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BOREAS

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MGS

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TERA

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Ecocells

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Jasper Ridge

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RMBL

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Harvard Forest

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Howland Forest

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MEGS

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Great Dun Fell

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ORNL (3 sites)

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Rio Mayo

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Ny Alesund

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Clocaenog (VULCAN)

#

BCCIL

#

Wytham

#

Abisko (4 sites)

#

Flakaliden

#

CLIMEX

#

Mols (VULCAN)

#

Kiskun Sag (VULCAN)

#

Garraf (VULCAN)

#


#

Oldebroek (VULCAN)

#

McMurdo Dry Valleys

#

Caribou/Poker Creeks

#

Nevada Desert

#

Sky Oaks

#

Maricopa

#

Urbana-Champaign

#

Duke Forest

#

Cedar Creek

#

Rhinelander

#

Mekrijarvi

#

Kopparasmyren

#

Inner Mongolia Grassland#

Clermont-Ferrand

#

RapolanoViterbo

#

EschikonHofstettenLes Chaux-des-Breuleu

#

BraunschweigGiessen

#

MunichStillberg-Davos

#

Wageningen

#Shizuikuishi

#

New Delhi#

Yabulu#

Bulls

#

Pontville

#

Godollo

#

Dublin

#

Cumbria

#

Konza Prairie

#

Norman

#

Big Bend

#

Sevilletta

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Santa Rita

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FlagstaffMojave

#

Valentine Eastern Sierra Reserve

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Central Valley#

Fraser ForestLochvale

#

CatskillsIES

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ELA

#

Fernow

#

Pancake Hall CreekWoods LakeMt. AscutneyHubbard BrookPack Forest

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Bear Brook

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Gardsjon

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Amli

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Skogaby

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Alptal

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Aber Forest

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SpeuldYsselsteyn

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Klosterhede

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Solling Forest

# Ecosystem warming sites$ CO2 sites (FACE)Ñ Precipitation sites (PrecipNet)N Nitrogen sites

20 peer-reviewed papers1 book2 book chapters


• Temperature

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

NY

_AL

AB

_SH

EF

AB

450L

O

AB

MB

LO

CPE

R

AB

1150

LO

RM

BL

AB

450H

I

FRFF

EN

MH

TE

RA

TO

OL

IKD

H

TO

OL

IKM

T

AB

1150

HI

FRFB

OG

HH

OR

NL

FRFF

EN

HH

RIO

_MA

YO

FRFB

OG

MH

TL

KT

US

NIW

OT

HU

NT

2.5

BC

CIL

WY

TH

AM

TL

KSE

D

CL

IME

X

SGST

EPP

E

HIF

S

AB

MB

LC

HU

NT

5.0

FLA

K

HA

RV

AR

D

HU

NT

7.5

o C

Experimental Temperature Increase


• Temperature

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

NY_AL

RMBLTLK

SEDORNL

HUNT7.5NIW

OTTOOLIK

MTCPER

HIFSHARVARD

SGSTEPPE

AB450HI

HUNT5.0

RIO_M

AYOTOOLIK

DHHUNT2.5

TERAperc

ent c

hang

e

Percent Change in Soil Respiration


• Temperature

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

Abisko

_7How

land

Abisk_

6Abis

ko_1

Toolik

Abisk0

_2Harv

ardCLIM

EXNy A

lesun

dAbis

ko_3

Abisko

_5Abis

ko-4

perc

ent c

hang

e

Percent Change in N Mineralization


• Temperature

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

TACITTERA

Abisko

_1RMBL

Wytham

Woo

dsBux

tonAbis

ko_2

MN_Bog

_loORNL

Shortg

rass S

teppe

MN_bog

_hi

Abisko

_6Ny A

lesun

dToo

lik_d

ry

Mn_fen

_med

Mn_Fen

_hi

Flakali

den

Abisko

_5Abis

ko_4

Toolik_

wetAbis

ko_3pe

rcen

t cha

nge

in p

rodu

ctiv

ity

Percent Change in Plant Productivity


• Temperature Soil Respiration at the Harvard Forest


• Temperature Soil Respiration at the Harvard Forest


• Temperature• Moisture

Experimental Manipulations of Soil Moisture at the Harvard

Forest Eric Davidson et al.



Mea

n Fl

ux(m

g C

m-2

hr-1

)

050

100150200250300350

Soil

Tem

pera

ture

(o C

)

812162024

Oi g

ravi

met

ricw

ater

con

tent

0.00.40.81.21.6

18-J

un-0

219

-Jun

-02

20-J

un-0

221

-Jun

-02

22-J

un-0

223

-Jun

-02

24-J

un-0

225

-Jun

-02

26-J

un-0

227

-Jun

-02

28-J

un-0

229

-Jun

-02

30-J

un-0

21-

Jul-0

22-

Jul-0

23-

Jul-0

24-

Jul-0

25-

Jul-0

26-

Jul-0

27-

Jul-0

28-

Jul-0

29-

Jul-0

210

-Jul

-02

11-J

ul-0

212

-Jul

-02

13-J

ul-0

214

-Jul

-02

15-J

ul-0

2Hou

rly P

reci

pita

tion

(mm

)

02468

Automated Rainfall Exclusion Automated Control

Min

eral

Soi

l Wat

er

at 5

cm D

epth

(cm

3 H

2O c

m-3

soil)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

a)

b)

c)

d)

e)

Harvard Forest Moisture Manipulation

Davidson et al.



0

100

200

300

400

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.02.5

468101214161820So

il re

spira

tion

(mg

C m

-2 h

-1)

Soil w

ater

cont

ent (

g g

-1 )

Soil temperature (°C)

Control plots

Exclusion plots

Davidson et al.

Harvard Forest Moisture ManipulationSoil Respiration



Hubbard Brook Pilot Moisture Manipulation Study

Rustad et al.


• Temperature• Moisture Fig. 5. Response of in situ net nitrification to

precipitation change. Bars with different superscripts indicate statistically significant

differences within the treatment period at p < 0.05.

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

Reference Rainfalladded

Rainfallremoved

Reference Rainfalladded

Rainfallremoved

Pre-treatment Treatment

In s

itu n

itrifi

catio

n (m

g N

kg-1

d-1

)

a

a

a

a

b

ab

Rustad et al.

Hubbard Brook Pilot Moisture Manipulation Study



Future Research?

$$$$$$$$


• Temperature• Moisture• Snow

Snow Manipulation Experiments in Northeastern

North America


Snow Depth Experiments at:1. Underhill,, VT2. Duchesney Experimental

Forest, Quebec3. Hubbard Brook, NH4. Harvard Forest, MA




Decker et al. (2003) SSSJ

Vermont Snow Depth Manipulation



HBEF Snow Depth Manipulation

Soil Temperatures at -10 cm

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

DA

Y

312

320

328

336

344

352

360 3 11 19 27 35 43 51 59 67 75 83 91 99 107

Day in year 1998/99

Soil

Tem

pera

ture

(C)

SM1 Freeze SM1 ControlSM2 Freeze SM2 ControlYB1 Freeze YB1 ControlYB2 Freeze YB2 Control

Groffman et al. 2001 Biogeochemistry


• Temperature HBEF Snow Depth Manipulation

1998 1999

b

*D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N

Soil

Solu

tion

NO

3- ( µm

ol L

-1)

100

200

300

400

500

ReferenceTreatment



0

20

40

60

80

100 BirchMaple

1998 1999

Oa Horizon

Frozen Frozen Frozen Frozen

• Moisture• Snow





0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 1999 1998 1999

Mineralization Nitrification

Min

eral

izat

ion

and

nitr

ifica

tion

(g N

m-1

y-1

)

ReferenceFreeze





0

0.07

0.14

0.21

0.28

0.35

Mar-98 May-98 Jul-98 Sep-98 Nov-98 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99

Date sampled

Prop

ortio

nal f

ine

root

mor

talit

y

Reference Treatment

0

0.07

0.14

0.21

0.28

0.35

Mar-98 May-98 Jul-98 Sep-98 Nov-98 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Sep-99

Date sampled

Prop

ortio

nal f

ine

root

mor

talit

y

Reference Treatment

Tierney et al. 2001 Biogeochemistry

Gradient Studies

Gradient Studies• Maine Environmental

Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.Northern

Central

Southern

CoastalHardwood Site

Hardwood and Softwood Site

MEGS


Gradient Study – Fernandez et al.

Table 1 Means and ranges for characteristics

of the sites in this study.

Mean Range

Latitude 44oo03' - 46oo48'

Longitude 68oo06' - 70oo35'

Elevation (m) 234 46 - 883

Slope (%) 5 1 - 11

Forest Floor Thickness (cm) 7 2 - 14

Basal Area (m22 ha-1-1) 29 17 - 40

Conifer (% Basal Area) 38 0 - 100

Mean Annual Air Temperature (Coo) 4.5 2.0 - 6.2

Mean Annual Soil Temperature (Coo) 6.5 5.2 - 7.3

Mean May-Oct Air Temperature (Coo) 13.5 11.4 - 14.7

Mean May-Oct Soil Temperature (Coo) 12.3 10.3 - 13.4

Frost-Free Days 213 113 - 259

Growing Degree Days 2326 1817 - 2652

Precipitation (cm) 103 90 - 140



TN TC C/N PNN PNA PNNM0

10

20

30

40

50

60Northern Central Coastal Southern

a

b

a

ba

ca

c

b

a

X 10

ab bc

aba

cbc

c ab

b b

b

c

b b

X 10

MEGS



Northeastern High Elevation Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

•



• Northeastern High Elevation Forest Floor Study - Hanson et al.; Evans et al.

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Ca

Per

cent

Dry

Wei

ght Ca 1979*

Ca 1996

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

mg/

kg P

b D

ry W

eigh

t Pb 1979*Pb 1996

Northeastern High Elevation Forest Floor Study



• Northeastern High ElevationForest Floor Study - Hansonet al.; Evans et al.

• Hubbard Brook Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

Mean Annual Temperaturey = 0.03x + 6.1

R2 = 0.18

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

1968

Year

Station 6 747 mStation 1 488 mHQ 253 mLinear (HQ 253 m)

Hubbard Brook Elevational Gradients





Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Hubbard Brook Elevational Gradient Study




Hubbard Brook Environmental Gradient Study – Groffman et al.

0

25

50

75

100

UV LV EK WK

Snow

dep

th

Low elevation High elevation

Snow depth - January 8, 2002

0

2

4

6

UV LV EK WK

Soil

fros

t dep

th


Soil frost - February 22, 2002

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

LV UV EK WK

Soi

l moi

stur

e (w

/w)


Mineral soil (June 2002)

More snow at higher elevation

Higher soilmoisture at higherelevation

Less soil freezingat higher elevation

•





0

4

8

12

16

LV UV EK WK

Soil

nitr

ate

(mg

N k

g-1)


Forest floor (June 2002)

0

2

4

6

LV UV EK WK

Pote

ntia

l net

nitr

ifica

tion

(mg

N k

g-1 d

-1)


Forest floor (June 2002)

Higher soilnitrificationat higher elevation

Higher soil NO3

- at higher elevation





0

0.04

0.08

0.12

0.16

19-Apr-01 8-Jun-01 28-Jul-01 16-Sep-01 5-Nov-01 25-Dec-01

Date

Tota

l soi

l res

pira

tion

(g C

m-2

h-1

)

Low elevationHigh elevationHigher soil

respirationat lower elevation

Biological Observations

Biological Observations• Birds and small

mammals

Rodenhouse et al.


mammals

Rodenhouse et al.

Birds vs. Temperature

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

1969

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19

Year

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Bird

s pe

r 10

ha

Mean annual Temperature

Bird abundance/10 haLinear (Mean annual Temperature)


mammalsHow might climate change affect

bird populations?

Directly and indirectly

Rodenhouse et al.


mammals

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Low 250-300 m

Mid 480-600 m

High>780M

Hubbard Brook Elevational Gradient Study


mammalsClimate and Song Bird Populations

• Food is more abundant during warm, dry years.

• Distribution of birds will shift towards lower elevations in years with cold spring weather.

• Bird densities will be higher in years where weather conditions lead to synchronous arrival of spring migrants.

• Rate of nest predation:• will increase in summers following a mast

seed crop in the preceding summer/autumn.• will decline when inclement weather

depresses nest predator activity.


mammals

• Forest Insects

Sprucebudworm

Mountain pine beetle

Gypsy moth

Barry Cook et al.


mammals

• Forest InsectsFallFallFallFall

SummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinter

SpringSpringSpring

Gypsy moth annual life cyle

Gypsy moth annual life cyle

Barry Cook et al.

1961-1990

1971-2000

1981-2010

1991-2020

2001-2030

2011-2040

2021-2050

2031-2060

2041-2070

Modeling

Modeling

• PnET

Scott Ollinger et al.

Predicted

Net Primary Production (g m-2 yr-1)

<800 1050 1150 1250 1400<800 1050 1150 1250 1400

Modeling

• PnET


Modeling

• PnET


A New Program on:Synthesis of Climate Change

Researchin Northeastern US and

Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems

NERC CVC Working GroupFunded by NSRC and NSF RCN

Why Northern Forest Ecosystems?

• The dominant land cover type across much of the Northeastern United States and Eastern Canada• Provide important ecosystem services, including:

- Forest Products- Tourism- Recreation- Clean air- Clean water- Biodiversity

Goals• Increase communication amongst global

change scientists in the northeastern U.S. and eastern Canada

• Synthesize the accumulating research on the response of northern forest ecosystems to climate change

• Make this summary available to policy makers, land and resource managers, stakeholders and the interested public

Approach• Phase 1: a scientific synthesis of climate

variability and change research in the region• Climate Variability and Change:

Consequences for Northern Forest Ecosystems1. Introduction 2. Historical Record for Past Climate Change within the Region 3. Indicators of Past Climate Change within the Region (lake and

river ice-out, river flow timing, phenology, etc)4. Updated Climate Projections for the Region 5. Current Regional Scientific Efforts

a. Long-term Monitoring b. Gradients (space-for-time substitutions)

(i) Elevational (ii) Latitudinal

c. Experimental Manipulations(i) Temperature(ii) Precipitation(iii) Snow

d. Biological Observations(i) Birds (ii) Small mammals (iii) Insects(iv) Invasive species (v) Biodiversity Species Redistribution

e. Modeling6. Ecological Implications for Northern Forest Ecosystems

a. Forest impactsb. Water impactsc. Biogeochemical impactsd. Pests and Pathogense. Interactions with O3, N and S deposition, Hg, and fire

7. Future Scientific Research Needs

Approach• Phase 2: the ‘translation’ of this document

for the non-scientific community, as a:

Forest Service General Technical Report (GTR)

Fact Sheets

Web site

Timeline2003/2004 2005 2006

N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N DFirst CVC Meeting XProposal Planning X X X X XProposal submission XProposal Funded XInitial Planning X X X XSecond CVC Meeting XSynthesis Paper Writing X X X X X X XThird CVC Meeting XOutreach Paper Writing X X X X X X XFinal Products X

Final Thought….

It is hoped that these products will be used to provide an unbiased scientific

basis for forestry related policy and land management decisions within the

region.

Documents

Climate Change Research in Northeastern US and Eastern ... · in Northeastern US and Eastern Canadian Forest Ecosystems ... Rustad, L.E., J.M.Melillo, M.J. Mitchell, I. J. Fernandez,