CLIMATE CHANGE STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS

Post-2012 Negotiations

29 OCTOBER 2007

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BOGOR : Some progress?

Summitry showing resultsElements of Bali roadmap clearLinkage of Kyoto Protocol and

Convention “tracks” inevitableIdea of a long-term global goal More openness over developing

country “contributions”

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BALI ROAD MAP for post 2012 agreement• Four core issues: mitigation, adaptation,

technology, finance• Plus others: deforestation, impact of

response measures, SD PAMs (sustainable development policies and measures), carbon markets

• Recognition of non UNFCCC processes?

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Questions

• Elements of the road map?• 2009 end date?• A single negotiation or two tracks –

Kyoto and Convention? • If two, what linkages/conditionalities?• Input from non UNFCCC processes?

(G8, MEM, APEC etc)

Ad-hoc Working Group (AWG)

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AWG: work programme

(a) Analysis of mitigation potentials and ranges of emission reduction objectives of Annex 1 Parties

(b) Analysis of possible means to achieve mitigation objectives

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AWG: work programme (c)

• Scale of emission reductions to be achieved by Annex 1 Parties in aggregate and

• allocation of the corresponding mitigation effort, and

• agreement on their further commitments

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AWG: Indicative range for Annex 1 in aggregate • 25 – 40% below 1990 (by 2020) may

be discussed at Bali• Iteration between (a), (b) and (c) of

work programme

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AWG: The Science (1)

• IPCC AR4 • To avoid some of the most extreme

impacts of climate change, increase in global mean temperature needs to be limited to no more than 2 – 3 deg C

• This requires stabilisation below about 560 ppm CO2e

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AWG: The Science (2)

• 80% chance of staying below 3 deg C if GHG concentrations are stabilised at less than 445ppm CO2e

• But with stabilisation at 560 ppm CO2e, there is a 50% chance of exceeding 3 deg C

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AWG: The Science (3)

To achieve stabilisation at 445-490ppm CO2e would require that by 2020:

• Emissions from Annex 1 as a whole were 25 – 40% below 1990 levels, and

• There was substantial deviation from baseline for emissions in LA, ME, EA and Centrally-planned Asia.

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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (1)

• What does the science suggest that the range should be?

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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (2)Not necessary that all Annex 1 Parties’

commitments are within the indicative range

• Comparable effort and equitable burden sharing

• Easier/harder for New Zealand than other Annex 1 countries?

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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (3)

• Implications of extent of participation and extent of coverage eg. avoided deforestation, bunker fuels, ….

• Possible range for international Carbon price

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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (4)Cost to New Zealand• Implications of possible changes to

LULUCF rules • Level of sequestration in Kyoto forests

around 2020, 2030• Length of commitment period

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AWG: Matters being considered by the Govt (5)

• Direct cost to New Zealand businesses/households, upper bound: commitment x international Carbon price

• Impact on national economic welfare (NZ commitment, international Carbon price, trade effects, …..)

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AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (1)

Generic• Very high probability that the final

package will achieve stabilisation at the target concentration ie. sufficient coverage of emissions – activities and countries – with sufficient commitment to sufficient reductions

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AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (2)

Or specific• Inclusion of as many activities as possible• Participation of all Annex 1 Parties• Flexibility mechanisms are available• Annex 1 mitigation via flex. mechs. is

additional to “substantial deviation ….”

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AWG: Possible conditions that could be attached to New Zealand support for a particular indicative range (3)

• Effects of changes to LULUCF rules taken into account

• Indirect trade effects taken into account

• Fair burden sharing

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Other Issues: Russian Proposal

• streamlining inclusion into Annex I• Convention voluntary commitmentsNew Zealand position• supports new agenda item/s for these issues• joining Annex I should be simple; tacit

acceptance• Voluntary commitments one of elements in post-

2012 considerations

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Other issues: Kyoto Protocol 2nd Review

• 2nd Review at CMP4; Bali = scope and content• 1st Review inadequate; link to AWG and post-2012

New Zealand position• Basis = best science & other information• Process: prepare during 2008; distinct, clear, time-

defined; links to other processes• Scope: LULUCF rules, streamlining A1 inclusion,

CDM, nature of commitments (type, length)

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Other Issues: Avoided Deforestation (1)• SBSTA 27 agenda item 5: Reducing

emissions from deforestation in developing countries: approaches to stimulate action

• Emissions from deforestation are roughly 20% of global emissions.

• Widely recognised as a major area to be addressed in any future global climate change action

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Avoided Deforestation (2)• Process to date

– In March 2007, Australia and New Zealand co-hosted/funded the second workshop on this issue in Cairns, Australia.

– At SBSTA 26 a conclusion could not reached. The draft decision will continue to be negotiated at SBSTA 27 (Bali).

– SBSTA 26 invited Parties to make submissions.• Key issues of debate

– Scope– Fund– Market based

• Other issues– Baselines (local, regional, national), additionality, permanence, leakage,

monitoring.

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Avoided Deforestation (3)• NZ’s position

– Action is needed

– Mechanism requires sufficient money to address issue

– As such fund idea has weaknesses

– Technical issues can be addressed

– How does this ‘fit into’ the wider processes?

– What implications for emissions reductions targets?

• Possible outcomes from Bali

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Agriculture: International leadership

• NZ Government investing $1M p.a. on international collaboration on agriculture and forestry climate change research

• Major first step is establishment of Livestock Emissions and Abatement Research Network (LEARN)

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Agriculture: LEARN

• NZ establishing website for LEARN• Proposed that NZ act as administrator of

LEARN• Exploring possible research secondment

programme• Will look to co-host and sponsor future

activities under LEARN – workshops, conferences, exchanges

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Agriculture: Next steps

• GGAA3 – conference to be held in NZ in November this year

• NZ sponsoring attendance of developing countries at GGAA3 and inaugural LEARN meeting– At least 20 countries will attend LEARN meeting

including: Brazil, Argentina, Chile, China, India, Peru, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, Mexico, Canada, Ireland, UK, Switzerland, Ukraine, France, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand

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Agriculture: Bali

• Presentation on Non-CO2 ghgs in Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA)

• Advertise LEARN and associated activities• Continue to engage with Parties on

agriculture