Climate Change: The Move to Action(AOSS 480 // NRE 501)

Richard B. Rood734-647-3530

2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)rbrood@umich.edu

http://aoss.engin.umich.edu./people/rbrood

Winter 2008April 10, 2008

Class News

• A ctools site for all– AOSS 480 001 W08

• This is the official repository for lectures• Email climateaction@ctools.umich.edu

• Class Web Site and Wiki

–Climate Change: The Move to Action

–Winter 2008 Term

Rest of lectures

• April 10: Current Issues // Discussion

• April 15: Final Presentations

ROOM 2024 9:00 AM

• April 21: Submission of Final Presentation. (.ppt and .doc) (April 24, absolute latest!)

Seeking Project Happiness

Presentation: Total time for presentation and questions is 30 minutes. Aim for presentation of 20 minutes.

My goal, here, is something like a real world experience. Therefore, first get the presentation “right.”

Paper: There should be an accompanying narrative to the presentation. This should include references.

Minimally: Narrative is description of the presentation.Target: Narrative in the spirit of executive summary, or “white paper” that the receiver of the presentation can take away and “carry forward.” Needs Abstract. 10 pages is a good target. If it is longer than 10 pages needs an Executive Summary. (Due April 21, Latest April 24)

If you want to write more it is great! I’ve had as high as 60 pages by groups who really did plan, and did, take them forward. You should feel like you have done a good job, in the time that you have.

Readings on Local Servers

• Relevant References– Princeton Environmental Institute: Carbon

Management Initiative• Stabilization Wedges: Teachers Guide

– McKinsey 2007 report on the cost of greenhouse gas– Alliance for Climate Protection (wecansolveit.org)

• $300 M effort by Al Gore– Hansen paper on 350 ppm as target carbon dioxide

• Links throughout this lecture.• Lectures from last year added to site

– Geo-engineering (by Phil Rasch)– 2007 Class Lectures

Outline of Lecture

• Market based Synthesis

• Some Current Issues

• Discussions

Elements of environmental pollutant market

ENERGY PRODUCTION

FUEL SOURCES

ABATEMENT

SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS

F1c F2

c Fic

F1A F2

A FiA

A1 A2 Ai

GDP

.

POLLUTANT

efficiency

CO

ST

GA

P

22

][ 2COCO LP

t

CO

Let’s Think about the Market

• First, to be clear, this is another version of the continuity equation.

22

][ 2COCO LP

t

CO

PRODUCTION LOSS

PRODUCTION

• For our problem:– Production comes from burning fossil fuels.

– Here are the ways to reduce production• Use less energy• Consume less stuff• Shrink the economy• Find fuels that don’t emit carbon dioxide

– Don’t increase other greenhouse gases exponentially!

Production

• The real way to address the climate change problem in the short term is to reduce production of carbon dioxide, and

• the real way to do that is to consume less,– which will shrink the economy.

Production

• To maintain the growth of the economy and to address the climate change problem must de-correlate energy consumption from carbon dioxide emission.– This leads to alternative sources of energy.

Alternative energy

• According the Nathan Lewis, in the long-term there are three known sources of adequate energy for, say, more than a century or two.– Nuclear energy with breeder reactors– Solar energy, but requires new technology for efficiency and

storage– Coal with sequestration

• Other alternative energy, while important, do not scale with population and economic growth.

• Technology, exploration, and discovery and development of new energy sources

Current alternative energy

• With the presumption that cost of alternative energy needs to be comparable with fossil fuel sources there needs to be some way to bridge the cost gap.

• Personal analysis: fee or tax policy seems reasonable to bridge this gap.– Short term, and would help to develop a market.

CO

ST

GA

P

Production

• In the near term, by far the most effective way we have to reduce production of carbon dioxide is efficiency.– And this makes economic sense.

Efficiency

• But at this moment we have no way to really give valuation to efficiency.– Hence, historically, efficiency is often met with

increased consumption.

• How can this be changed?– Cost of energy is high enough that it demands

reduction– Efficiency is given valuation by market or policy (fee

and tax?)• Scale to help bridge the fuel cost gap?

– Other?

efficiency

United Nations Foundation: Realizing Potential of Energy Efficiency

Elements of environmental pollutant market

ENERGY PRODUCTION

FUEL SOURCES

ABATEMENT

SHARES OF POLLUTANT CREDITS

F1c F2

c Fic

F1A F2

A FiA

A1 A2 Ai

GDP

.

POLLUTANT

efficiency

CO

ST

GA

P

22

][ 2COCO LP

t

CO

Abatement

• What are the forms of abatement?

The abatement that we talk about

• Terrestrial sink?– This is fragile, limited, and there is growing

evidence that it does not “grow” to address the problem.

• That is “carbon fertilization” is less effective than posed.

• Oceanic sink?– Evidence of ocean “taking up less.”

Remember this curve

GOOD

BAD

Temperature(other environmental parameter)

Abatement

• What are the forms of abatement?

• Sequestration to keep carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

• Some engineered way to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.– Think about the energy of this requires

something “biological” to use the Sun.?

Abatement

• We don’t really have enough abatement options to make a market.

Geo-engineering

• An alternative to mitigation, carbon dioxide reduction, of climate change?– What are the risks?

– References.

What do we have in the short-term?

• Are there the elements of an effective market?– Can we make a market?

• The portfolio of near-term, technologically feasible reduction of carbon dioxide emissions.– Pacala and Socolow references

Past Emissions

The Stabilization Triangle

The Wedge Concept

Stabilization

McKinsey 2007

McKinsey 2007: Large

Some important things

• Hansen paper on 350 ppm as target carbon dioxide

• Sarmiento paper (draft, look for it!) What’s happening with carbon dioxide.– Update on terrestrial and ocean sink

Some important things

• The Alliance for Climate Protection (wecansolveit.org)– $300 M effort by Al Gore

• McKinsey 2007 report on the cost of greenhouse gas– Putting cost to Pacala and Socolow

• Continuing pressure from the business community to rationalize policy

• What’s happening with California and the EPA

Thank You

• Discussion