Upload
juliatier
View
223
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 132
Arief Anshory Yusuf amp Herminia Francisco
Climate Change
Vulnerability Mappingfor Southeast Asia
983123983127983109983108983113983123983112 983113983118983124983109983122983118983105983124983113983119983118983105983116 983108983109983126983109983116983119983120983117983109983118983124 983107983119983119983120983109983122983105983124983113983119983118 983105983111983109983118983107983129Sida 983107983137983150983137983140983145983137983150 983113983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148
983108983141983158983141983148983151983152983149983141983150983156 983105983143983141983150983139983161
983105983143983141983150983139983141 983107983137983150983137983140983145983141983150983150983141 983140983141
983108983273983158983141983148983151983152983152983149983141983150983156 983113983150983156983141983154983150983137983156983145983151983150983137983148
983109983139983151983150983151983149983161 983137983150983140 983109983150983158983145983154983151983150983149983141983150983156 983120983154983151983143983154983137983149 983142983151983154 983123983151983157983156983144983141983137983155983156 983105983155983145983137
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 232
Climate Change Vulnerability Mappingfor Southeast Asia
Arief Anshory Yusuf amp Herminia A Francisco
January 2009
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia
Sida SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY
Canadian International
Development Agency
Agence Canadienne de
Deacuteveloppment International
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 332
Comments should be sent to
Dr Arief Anshory Yusuf (email ariefyusuffeunpadacid) orDr Herminia Francisco (email hfranciscoidrcorgsg)
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)22 Cross Street 02-55 South Bridge Court Singapore 048421 Tel 65 6438 7877 Fax 65 6438 4844httpwwweepseaorg
EEPSEA was established in May 1993 to support research and training in environmental and resourceeconomics Its objective is to enhance local capacity to undertake the economic analysis ofenvironmental problems and policies It uses a networking approach involving courses meetingstechnical support access to literature and opportunities for comparative research Member countries are Thailand Malaysia Indonesia the Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Lao PDR China and Papua New
Guinea
EEPSEA is supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) the SwedishInternational Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
EEPSEA publications are also available online at httpwwweepseaorg
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 432
CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are sincerely grateful to the participants of the Climate Change Vulnerability Experts Consultation
Meeting in Bangkok in May 2008 Prof Rex Cruz Dr Khairulmaini Osman Salleh Dr Rizaldi Boer Ms
Rosa T Perez Mr Luong Quang Huy Mr Syamphone Sengchandala Mr Hoang Minh Hien Mr
Nathaniel C Bantayan Mr Heng Chan Thoeun Dr Suppakorn Chinvanno Dr Anond Snidvongs Dr
Bui Dung The and Dr Orapan Nabangchang for their invaluable inputs on this assessment We are also
deeply appreciative of Dr Richard Fuchs for his insightful suggestions on the conceptualization of this
study and for funding this project through IDRCs Regional Activity Funds We further thank Ms Ang
Cheng Hiang for the assisting in the production and Mr Megananda of the Center for Economics and
Development Studies (CEDS) Padjadjaran University for his excellent research assistance The authors
are fully responsible for any errors in this assessment
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 532
TABLE OF CONTENTS
10 INTRODUCTION 1
20 OBJECTIVES 1
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA 2
31 Vulnerability Assessment 3
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment 4
321 Climate-related hazard maps 5
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps 7
323 Adaptive capacity map 8
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP OFSOUTHEAST ASIA 10
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS 14
REFERENCES 14
APPENDICES 15
Appendix 1 Sources of Data 15
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia 18
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) 18
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) 18
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) 19
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005) 19
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) 20
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia 21
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard) 21
Appendix 3B List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (country standard) 24
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 632
ABSTRACT
This paper provides information on the sub-national areas (regionsdistrictsprovinces) most vulnerable
to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia This assessment was carried out by overlaying climate hazard
maps sensitivity maps and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of
the United Nationsrsquo Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The study used data on the
spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 530 sub-national areas of Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Malaysia and the Philippines Based on this mapping assessment all the
regions of the Philippines the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia
North and East Lao PDR the Bangkok region of Thailand and West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java
and East Java of Indonesia are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia
Keywords climate change vulnerability Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 232
Climate Change Vulnerability Mappingfor Southeast Asia
Arief Anshory Yusuf amp Herminia A Francisco
January 2009
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia
Sida SWEDISH INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION AGENCY
Canadian International
Development Agency
Agence Canadienne de
Deacuteveloppment International
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 332
Comments should be sent to
Dr Arief Anshory Yusuf (email ariefyusuffeunpadacid) orDr Herminia Francisco (email hfranciscoidrcorgsg)
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)22 Cross Street 02-55 South Bridge Court Singapore 048421 Tel 65 6438 7877 Fax 65 6438 4844httpwwweepseaorg
EEPSEA was established in May 1993 to support research and training in environmental and resourceeconomics Its objective is to enhance local capacity to undertake the economic analysis ofenvironmental problems and policies It uses a networking approach involving courses meetingstechnical support access to literature and opportunities for comparative research Member countries are Thailand Malaysia Indonesia the Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Lao PDR China and Papua New
Guinea
EEPSEA is supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) the SwedishInternational Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
EEPSEA publications are also available online at httpwwweepseaorg
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 432
CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are sincerely grateful to the participants of the Climate Change Vulnerability Experts Consultation
Meeting in Bangkok in May 2008 Prof Rex Cruz Dr Khairulmaini Osman Salleh Dr Rizaldi Boer Ms
Rosa T Perez Mr Luong Quang Huy Mr Syamphone Sengchandala Mr Hoang Minh Hien Mr
Nathaniel C Bantayan Mr Heng Chan Thoeun Dr Suppakorn Chinvanno Dr Anond Snidvongs Dr
Bui Dung The and Dr Orapan Nabangchang for their invaluable inputs on this assessment We are also
deeply appreciative of Dr Richard Fuchs for his insightful suggestions on the conceptualization of this
study and for funding this project through IDRCs Regional Activity Funds We further thank Ms Ang
Cheng Hiang for the assisting in the production and Mr Megananda of the Center for Economics and
Development Studies (CEDS) Padjadjaran University for his excellent research assistance The authors
are fully responsible for any errors in this assessment
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 532
TABLE OF CONTENTS
10 INTRODUCTION 1
20 OBJECTIVES 1
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA 2
31 Vulnerability Assessment 3
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment 4
321 Climate-related hazard maps 5
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps 7
323 Adaptive capacity map 8
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP OFSOUTHEAST ASIA 10
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS 14
REFERENCES 14
APPENDICES 15
Appendix 1 Sources of Data 15
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia 18
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) 18
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) 18
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) 19
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005) 19
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) 20
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia 21
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard) 21
Appendix 3B List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (country standard) 24
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 632
ABSTRACT
This paper provides information on the sub-national areas (regionsdistrictsprovinces) most vulnerable
to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia This assessment was carried out by overlaying climate hazard
maps sensitivity maps and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of
the United Nationsrsquo Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The study used data on the
spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 530 sub-national areas of Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Malaysia and the Philippines Based on this mapping assessment all the
regions of the Philippines the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia
North and East Lao PDR the Bangkok region of Thailand and West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java
and East Java of Indonesia are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia
Keywords climate change vulnerability Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 332
Comments should be sent to
Dr Arief Anshory Yusuf (email ariefyusuffeunpadacid) orDr Herminia Francisco (email hfranciscoidrcorgsg)
Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)22 Cross Street 02-55 South Bridge Court Singapore 048421 Tel 65 6438 7877 Fax 65 6438 4844httpwwweepseaorg
EEPSEA was established in May 1993 to support research and training in environmental and resourceeconomics Its objective is to enhance local capacity to undertake the economic analysis ofenvironmental problems and policies It uses a networking approach involving courses meetingstechnical support access to literature and opportunities for comparative research Member countries are Thailand Malaysia Indonesia the Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Lao PDR China and Papua New
Guinea
EEPSEA is supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) the SwedishInternational Development Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
EEPSEA publications are also available online at httpwwweepseaorg
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 432
CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are sincerely grateful to the participants of the Climate Change Vulnerability Experts Consultation
Meeting in Bangkok in May 2008 Prof Rex Cruz Dr Khairulmaini Osman Salleh Dr Rizaldi Boer Ms
Rosa T Perez Mr Luong Quang Huy Mr Syamphone Sengchandala Mr Hoang Minh Hien Mr
Nathaniel C Bantayan Mr Heng Chan Thoeun Dr Suppakorn Chinvanno Dr Anond Snidvongs Dr
Bui Dung The and Dr Orapan Nabangchang for their invaluable inputs on this assessment We are also
deeply appreciative of Dr Richard Fuchs for his insightful suggestions on the conceptualization of this
study and for funding this project through IDRCs Regional Activity Funds We further thank Ms Ang
Cheng Hiang for the assisting in the production and Mr Megananda of the Center for Economics and
Development Studies (CEDS) Padjadjaran University for his excellent research assistance The authors
are fully responsible for any errors in this assessment
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 532
TABLE OF CONTENTS
10 INTRODUCTION 1
20 OBJECTIVES 1
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA 2
31 Vulnerability Assessment 3
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment 4
321 Climate-related hazard maps 5
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps 7
323 Adaptive capacity map 8
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP OFSOUTHEAST ASIA 10
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS 14
REFERENCES 14
APPENDICES 15
Appendix 1 Sources of Data 15
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia 18
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) 18
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) 18
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) 19
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005) 19
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) 20
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia 21
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard) 21
Appendix 3B List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (country standard) 24
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 632
ABSTRACT
This paper provides information on the sub-national areas (regionsdistrictsprovinces) most vulnerable
to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia This assessment was carried out by overlaying climate hazard
maps sensitivity maps and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of
the United Nationsrsquo Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The study used data on the
spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 530 sub-national areas of Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Malaysia and the Philippines Based on this mapping assessment all the
regions of the Philippines the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia
North and East Lao PDR the Bangkok region of Thailand and West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java
and East Java of Indonesia are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia
Keywords climate change vulnerability Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 432
CKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We are sincerely grateful to the participants of the Climate Change Vulnerability Experts Consultation
Meeting in Bangkok in May 2008 Prof Rex Cruz Dr Khairulmaini Osman Salleh Dr Rizaldi Boer Ms
Rosa T Perez Mr Luong Quang Huy Mr Syamphone Sengchandala Mr Hoang Minh Hien Mr
Nathaniel C Bantayan Mr Heng Chan Thoeun Dr Suppakorn Chinvanno Dr Anond Snidvongs Dr
Bui Dung The and Dr Orapan Nabangchang for their invaluable inputs on this assessment We are also
deeply appreciative of Dr Richard Fuchs for his insightful suggestions on the conceptualization of this
study and for funding this project through IDRCs Regional Activity Funds We further thank Ms Ang
Cheng Hiang for the assisting in the production and Mr Megananda of the Center for Economics and
Development Studies (CEDS) Padjadjaran University for his excellent research assistance The authors
are fully responsible for any errors in this assessment
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 532
TABLE OF CONTENTS
10 INTRODUCTION 1
20 OBJECTIVES 1
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA 2
31 Vulnerability Assessment 3
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment 4
321 Climate-related hazard maps 5
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps 7
323 Adaptive capacity map 8
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP OFSOUTHEAST ASIA 10
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS 14
REFERENCES 14
APPENDICES 15
Appendix 1 Sources of Data 15
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia 18
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) 18
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) 18
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) 19
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005) 19
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) 20
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia 21
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard) 21
Appendix 3B List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (country standard) 24
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 632
ABSTRACT
This paper provides information on the sub-national areas (regionsdistrictsprovinces) most vulnerable
to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia This assessment was carried out by overlaying climate hazard
maps sensitivity maps and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of
the United Nationsrsquo Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The study used data on the
spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 530 sub-national areas of Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Malaysia and the Philippines Based on this mapping assessment all the
regions of the Philippines the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia
North and East Lao PDR the Bangkok region of Thailand and West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java
and East Java of Indonesia are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia
Keywords climate change vulnerability Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 532
TABLE OF CONTENTS
10 INTRODUCTION 1
20 OBJECTIVES 1
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA 2
31 Vulnerability Assessment 3
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment 4
321 Climate-related hazard maps 5
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps 7
323 Adaptive capacity map 8
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP OFSOUTHEAST ASIA 10
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS 14
REFERENCES 14
APPENDICES 15
Appendix 1 Sources of Data 15
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia 18
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003) 18
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001) 18
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000) 19
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005) 19
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone) 20
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia 21
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard) 21
Appendix 3B List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (country standard) 24
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 632
ABSTRACT
This paper provides information on the sub-national areas (regionsdistrictsprovinces) most vulnerable
to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia This assessment was carried out by overlaying climate hazard
maps sensitivity maps and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of
the United Nationsrsquo Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The study used data on the
spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 530 sub-national areas of Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Malaysia and the Philippines Based on this mapping assessment all the
regions of the Philippines the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia
North and East Lao PDR the Bangkok region of Thailand and West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java
and East Java of Indonesia are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia
Keywords climate change vulnerability Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 632
ABSTRACT
This paper provides information on the sub-national areas (regionsdistrictsprovinces) most vulnerable
to climate change impacts in Southeast Asia This assessment was carried out by overlaying climate hazard
maps sensitivity maps and adaptive capacity maps following the vulnerability assessment framework of
the United Nationsrsquo Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The study used data on the
spatial distribution of various climate-related hazards in 530 sub-national areas of Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Lao PDR Cambodia Malaysia and the Philippines Based on this mapping assessment all the
regions of the Philippines the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia
North and East Lao PDR the Bangkok region of Thailand and West Sumatra South Sumatra West Java
and East Java of Indonesia are among the most vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia
Keywords climate change vulnerability Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 732
1
10 INTRODUCTION
The United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Bali Indonesia in December 2007
acknowledged among other things the need for enhanced action on adaptation and the provision of
financial resources for it This in turn implies the need for financial and technology transfer from the
rich to the poor countries In general most developing countries in Asia have the least capacity to adapt
to climate change and are therefore in need of whatever external support they can get to build their
capacity (Francisco 2008)
As the long history of international climate change agreements tells us resource transfers from rich to
poor countries not only require a common and shared vision among the countries but also involve long
and complex political processes Acknowledging the fact that in a resource-constrained world there is a
benefit and cost to every action it is then essential for the resources available to be well targeted to the
people who need them the most those located in the areas most vulnerable to climate change
The identification and characterization of the vulnerable communities and sectors were identified as
priority concerns by the participants of the EEPSEA Climate Change Adaptation Conference held in Bali
in February 2008 Identification of the most vulnerable groups by way of determining the most vulnerable
regions within countries and in Southeast Asia as a whole is thus an urgent task for development agencies
This paper addresses this need
20 OBJECTIVES
The general objective of this study is to identify which regions in Southeast Asia are the most vulnerable
to climate change It is expected that this information will be useful to policy-makers of the region as well
as external donors in better targeting their support towards climate change efforts The specific objectives
are as follows
1 To identify which sub-national areasunits (regions provinces or districts depending on the
availability of the data) of Southeast Asian countries (Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change
2 To show these vulnerable areas in a map for ease of reference of interested parties
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 832
2
30 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
Identifying climate change vulnerability requires a clear conceptual framework We started by adopting
the concept contained in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC where vulnerability is defined as
ldquoThe degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change including climate variability and extremes Vulnerability is a function of the character magnitude
and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed its sensitivity and its adaptive capacityrdquo (IPCC
2001 p995) Vulnerability can thus be defined as a function of exposure sensitivity and adaptive
capacity or
Vulnerability = f(exposure sensitivity adaptive capacity)
In the IPCC report exposure is defined as ldquothe nature and degree to which a system is exposed to
significant climatic variationsrdquo sensitivity is defined as ldquothe degree to which a system is affected either
adversely or beneficially by climate-related stimuli1rdquo and adaptive capacity is defined as ldquothe ability of a
system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate the potential
damage from it to take advantage of its opportunities or to cope with its consequencesrdquo
We used the above conceptual framework to do a lsquoquickrsquo assessment of the lsquocurrentrsquo vulnerability of
selected Southeast Asian countries based on past as well as the most recently available data We
emphasize the term lsquoquickrsquo as this effort should be considered as a first cut of sorts since this work was
largely dependent on whatever information we could get from public sources (such as the internet) and
climate change experts in the region We used the inputs of a select group of climate and social scientists
from the region obtained through a Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held with them in
Bangkok in the middle of 2008
The main limitation of our assessment was our inability to factor in projections of climate change and
socio-economic conditions for the coming years However given that the future trajectory of climate
change events and socio-economic conditions is so uncertain we feel that such an analysis would be hard
to sell in any case It is far more reliable to use historical data as current vulnerability is likely to worsen
than improve Naturally there is room for fine-tuning this assessment to take into account scientifically
acceptable projections on future climate change impacts as well as projected changes in socio-economic
conditions Detailed sub-national information on the various indicators of adaptive capacity should be
collected given more time and resources However we shall leave such improvements to future studies
on this topic
Our motivation in coming up with this map is to provide some indications on how the limited
(developmental and research) resources available for adaptation work could be best directed across
1 The effect may be direct (eg a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean range or variability of temperature) orindirect (eg damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 932
3
countries in the region and across sub-national areas within a country The identification of specific
adaptation support or research for the different locales should then be carried out
31 Vulnerability Assessment
To identify the vulnerable regions we constructed an index of the climate change vulnerability of sub-
national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia ie Vietnam Laos Cambodia
Thailand Malaysia the Philippines and Indonesia The assessment considers 530 sub-national areas
comprising 341 districts ( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces
( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14 states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat )
in Thailand and 53 provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
The climate change vulnerability index was derived through the following steps
bull We assessed exposure using information from historical records of climate-related hazards as we
considered past exposure to climate risks as the best available proxy for future climate risks
bull We obtained climate hazard maps for five climate-related risks tropical cyclones floods landslides
droughts and sea level rise
bull We used population density as a proxy for human sensitivity to climate-hazard exposure The
assumption here is that regions that are relatively less inhabited will be less vulnerable compared to
regions with high population densities given the same degree of exposure to climate hazards
bull In addition to the human aspect of vulnerability we also included ecological sensitivity of the region
using biodiversity information as a proxy variable A biodiversity-rich region measured by the
percentage of protected areas is thus considered here as more vulnerable than other areas to climate
hazards other things being equal
bull We constructed an index of adaptive capacity as a function of socio-economic factors technology
and infrastructure
Based on the above we constructed an index of the overall climate change vulnerability of the region
Figure 1 illustrates the steps we took in constructing the index
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1032
4
Cyclone Risk Map [15]
Drought Risk Map [15]
Flood Risk Map [15]
Landslide Risk Map [15]
Sea Level Rise Map [15]
Multiple Hazard Map [13]
Adaptive Capacity [13]
Overall VulnerabilityPopulation Density ampProtected areas [13]
Figure 1 Method used in deriving the climate change vulnerability index
Note The figures in parenthesis indicate the weights given to the respective factors
32 Generating the Component Maps for the Vulnerability Assessment
As shown in Figure 1 we derived the overall climate change vulnerability index by overlaying a series of
maps These maps are described below (Please refer to Appendix 1 for the sources of the data used in
this vulnerability mapping project)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1132
5
321 Climate hazard maps
First we obtained maps (in gridraster format) for five different climate hazards the frequency of
droughts floods and cyclones for about 20 years (1980-200013) physical exposure to landslides and
inundation zones of a five-meter sea level rise The maps of these five hazards are given in Appendix 2
Then to make the maps comparable we normalized each of them using the following formula
Zij =X ij ndash X iMIN
X iMAX ndash X iMIN
where Zij is the standardized climate hazard of type i of region j X ij is the unstandardized climate hazard
of type i of region j X iMAX is the maximum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j and X iMIN
is the minimum value of the climate hazard indicator over region j A similar standardization method is
used by the UNDP to calculate the Human Development Index
Thirdly we used the simple average of the five standardized climate hazard indicators thus overlaying all
five hazard maps onto one single multiple hazard map Since we did not have knowledge of the degree of
importance of each hazard in assessing the vulnerability we assumed equal weights for all
Figure 2 is the overall climate hazard map showing the combination of climate-related hazards (tropical
cyclones floods landslides droughts and sea level rise) and the hotspots in Southeast Asia The latter
includes the north-western and Mekong region of Vietnam the coastal regions of Vietnam facing the
South China Sea Bangkok and its surrounding areas in Thailand practically all the regions of the
Philippines and the western and eastern parts of Java Island Indonesia Table 1 lists the climate hazard
hotspots and their dominant hazards
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1232
6
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Multiple Climate Hazard Index
000 - 004
004 - 009
009 - 014
014 - 018
018 - 024
024 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 047
047 - 060
060 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 2 Multiple climate hazard map of Southeast Asia
Note For the legend the scale used is 0-1 indicating the lowest vulnerability level (0) to the highest vulnerability
level (1)
Table 1 Climate hazard hotspots and dominant hazards
Climate hazard hotspots Dominant hazards
Northwestern Vietnam Droughts
Eastern coastal areas of Vietnam Cyclones droughts
Mekong region of Vietnam Sea level rise
Bangkok and its surrounding area in Thailand Sea level rise floods
Southern regions of Thailand Droughts floods
The Philippines Cyclones landslides floods droughts
Sabah state in Malaysia Droughts
Western and eastern area of Java Island Indonesia Droughts floods landslides sea level rise
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1332
7
322 Human and ecological sensitivity maps
We obtained the population density maps from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) which showed the number of
people per square kilometer in 30-arc-second (1-km) resolution We converted the unit of observation
from the 1-km resolution into provincedistrict by averaging across administrative boundaries This
produced maps of average population density for each of the provincesdistricts in the region These
were used as indicators of human sensitivity
The ecological sensitivity map was obtained using data on protected areas from the Terrestrial Ecoregions
GIS Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) We calculated the share of area within each
provincedistrict designated as protected areas over the total land area of the provincedistrict
The overall sensitivity map encompassing both human and ecological factors was derived using the
weighted averages of the standardized values of population density and protected area (as a share of total
area) for each of the provincesdistricts We chose to use a higher weight of 070 for population density
(with 030 for protected areas) because of the higher importance we attached to human sensitivity
Figure 3 shows the map of population density and protected areas The figure shows that Java is the most
densely populated island in the region Other highly populated areas are northeastern Vietnam (around
the capital) Bangkok and around the national capital of the Philippines
Thailand Cambodia and Lao PDR have relatively more protected areas compared to other countries in
the region The largest protected areas in Southeast Asia are the Foga region in Papua island Mount
Leuser National Park in northern Sumatra the Sungai Kayan-Sungai Mentarai Nature Reserve in North
Kalimantan the Thung Yai Naresuan Wildlife Sanctuary in eastern Thailand Palawan Island of the
Philippines the Nakai-Nam Theun National Biodiversity Conservation Park of Lao PDR and the
Mondulkiri Protected Forest of Cambodia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1432
8
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Protected areas
Population Density
High 444797
Low 0
Country Boundary
Figure 3 Human (population density) and ecological (protected areas) sensitivity map of Southeast Asia(2000)
323 Adaptive capacity map
Adaptive capacity is defined as the degree to which adjustments in practices processes or structures can
moderate or offset potential damage or take advantage of opportunities (from climate change) It can be
written in equation form as follows
Adaptive Capacity = f(socio-economic factors technology infrastructure)2
The Climate Change Experts Consultation Meeting held in Bangkok in mid-2008 resulted in an
operational framework to measure adaptive capacity using selected indicators We used lsquoexpert opinion
pollingrsquo to arrive at the weights assigned to the various climate change indicators shown in Figure 4
2 Initially included in the function of adaptive capacity was ldquopolicy and institutionsrsquo However due to lack of data availabilityacross sub-national areas in SEA the variable was dropped from this analysis
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1532
9
SOCIO-ECONOMICS
TECHNOLOGY
INFRASTRUCTURE
Human Development Index
Standard of Living
Longevity
Education
050
13
13
13
Poverty Incidence 028
Income Inequality 022
Electricity Coverage 053
Extent of Irrigation 047
Road Density 050
Communication 050
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
050
025
025
Figure 4 Adaptive capacity assessment
Figure 5 below is a map showing the adaptive capacity of Southeast Asia3 Overall areas with relatively
high adaptive capacity lie in Thailand Malaysia and Vietnam whereas areas with relatively low adaptivecapacity are mostly found in Cambodia and Lao PDR
3 See Appendix 1 for details on the adaptive capacity calculations
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1632
10
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend
Adaptive Capacity Index
000- 022
022 - 037
037 - 047
047 - 053
053 - 058
058 - 064
064 - 069
069 - 075
075 - 084
084 - 100
Country Boundary
Figure 5 Adaptive capacity map of Southeast Asia (2005)
40 OVERALL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY MAP
OF SOUTHEAST ASIA
To obtain the overall index of climate change vulnerability we averaged each of the normalized indicators
of exposure (multiple hazard risk exposure) sensitivity (human and ecological) and adaptive capacity To
identify the vulnerable areas we ranked the regions according to the index and divided the list into four
equal parts Those provincesdistricts falling in the fourth quartile were considered the vulnerable areas
and further classified as mildly vulnerable moderately vulnerable or highly vulnerable
We used two different ways of ranking the areas first across the whole of Southeast Asia and second
within each of the selected countries4 This was done simply to rank priority areas for adaptation
interventions by different users of this mapping information Figure 6 shows the map of climate change
vulnerability in Southeast Asia while Figures 7 and 8 show the vulnerable areas by region (SEA) and
4 For the Southeast Asia standard the fourth quartile regions are further classified into three categories mild vulnerability (with an index interval of 033-046) moderate vulnerability (047-067) and high vulnerability (068-
100) For the country standard the index intervals for the mild moderate and high vulnerability categories are 018-042 043-065 and 066-100 respectively These categories were set using ArchMap software which best groupssimilar values and identifies big jumps in datasets
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1732
11
country standards respectively The two tables in Appendix 3 list the vulnerable areas showing the
vulnerability indices and components
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Climate Change Vulnerability
000 - 006
006 - 011
011 - 015
015 - 020
020 - 025
025 - 031
031 - 039
039 - 049
049 - 066
066 - 100
Figure 6 Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1832
12
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (SEA std)
mildly vulnerable (033 - 046)
moderately vulnerable (047 - 067)
highly vulnerable (068 - 100)
Figure 7 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (regional standard)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 550 1100275 Kilometers
Legend
Vulnerable regions (Country std)
mildly vulnerable (018 - 042)
moderately vulnerable (043 - 065)
highly vulnerable (066 - 100)
Figure 8 Map of the most vulnerable areas in Southeast Asia (country standard)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 1932
13
As can be seen from Figure 7 we identified the most vulnerable areas using the Southeast Asian standard
of those falling within the topfourth quartile These areas include all the regions of the Philippines the
Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam almost all the regions of Cambodia North and East Lao PDR
the Bangkok region of Thailand and the west and south of Sumatra and western and eastern Java in
Indonesia The Philippines unlike other countries in Southeast Asia is not only exposed to tropical
cyclones especially in the northern and eastern parts of the country but also to many other climate-
related hazards especially floods (such as in central Luzon and Southern Mindanao) landslides (due to the
terrain of the country) and droughts
Figure 8 reflects the most vulnerable regions within countries ie those in the top quartile relative to
other areas within each country Using this standard we find that in Malaysia the most vulnerable regions
are the states of Kelantan and Sabah In the Philippines the areas with the highest vulnerability are the
National Capital Region Southern Tagalog Cagayan Valley Central Luzon the Cordillera AdministrativeRegion and Bicol Province The National Capital Region of the Philippines which is densely populated
is particularly susceptible to multiple climate hazards (especially cyclones and floods)
In general these results provide no surprises as they confirm commonly-held suspicions that the most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia include the Mekong River Delta in Vietnam and Bangkok due to
their exposure to sea level rise as well as the northern part of the Philippines due to its exposure to
tropical cyclones
Notwithstanding this some surprises did arise Although most regions in Cambodia were relatively nothighly exposed to climate hazards except those sharing borders with the Mekong River Delta in northern
Vietnam (which is susceptible to flooding and sea level rise) almost all the provinces in Cambodia are
vulnerable due to their low adaptive capacity
In the overall assessment however the districts of Jakarta in Indonesia come out as the top most
vulnerable regions in Southeast Asia (see Appendix 3) Moreover the areas in western and eastern Java
are also vulnerable using the regional standard Central Jakarta ranks first in the overall vulnerability
assessment even though it has the highest adaptive capacity index This is because this district is the
intersection of all the climate-related hazards except tropical cyclones It is frequently exposed to regular
flooding but most importantly it is highly sensitive because it is among the most densely-populated
regions in Southeast Asia Areas in western Java are also highly vulnerable due to exposure to multiple
hazards (namely floods and landslides) as well as having high population densities
Adaptive capacity seems to play important role in changing the spatial pattern of vulnerability Low
adaptive capacity has made Cambodia among the most vulnerable regions despite its relatively low
exposure to climate hazards On the other hand the high adaptive capacity of the eastern coast of
Vietnam which is susceptible to cyclones has managed to moderate its vulnerability hence it is notincluded among the most vulnerable areas of Southeast Asia This is not generally true however for
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2032
14
other areas where high adaptive capacity does not help to moderate exposure to climate risks Bangkok
and Jakarta are good examples Their high adaptive capacities are not enough to moderate their extreme
vulnerability brought about by their high population densities and significant exposure to climate hazards
(in particular sea level rise and floods)
50 CONCLUDING REMARKS
The identification of the areas most vulnerable to climate change risks in Southeast Asia is among the
most urgent of policy needs This assessment responds to this need by identifying which
provincesdistricts in Southeast Asian countries (namely Thailand Vietnam Laos Cambodia Indonesia
Malaysia and the Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change and producing a map to show
climate change vulnerability in the region We gathered data at province and district levels from various
sources and integrated them in a consistent and meaningful manner to produce a map indicating the areasmost vulnerable to climate change Despite data limitations it is expected that the output of this analysis
will be useful to policy-makers and donors in better targeting financial resources towards adaptation
measures undertaken in Southeast Asia
REFERENCES
Francisco H A 2008 Adaptation to Climate Change Needs and Opportunities in Southeast Asia Asean
Economic Bulletin 25 (1)
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change) 2001 J McCarthy O Canziani N Leary D
Dokken and K White (eds) In Climate Change 2001 Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability
Cambridge University Press Cambridge
Peduzzi P H Dao and C Herold 2005 Mapping Disastrous Natural Hazards Using Global Datasets
Natural Hazards 35 (2) 265 - 289
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2132
15
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 Sources of Data
The data used in this vulnerability assessment came from different sources and in various formats such as
the GIS map format (both gridraster and SHP) and EXCEL data format A detailed explanation of the
sources of the data and how the figures were calculated is given below
Sub-national Administrative Areas
Data on sub-national administrative areas was available in ESRI SHP format For sub-national
administrative areas (such as provinces) the data came from the GEODATA portal (the Environmental
Database httpgeodatagridunepchextrasdatasetlistphp) Since Indonesia was the biggest country in
terms of area instead of using provinces as the unit of analysis we used districts instead The data ondistrict administrative boundaries for Indonesia was obtained from BAKOSURTANAL (or the National
Coordinating Body for Land Surveys)
In all there were 530 sub-national areasunits in this assessment which were made up of 341 districts
( kabupatenkota ) in Indonesia 19 provinces ( khet ) in Cambodia 17 provinces ( khoueng ) in Lao PDR 14
states ( negeri ) in Malaysia 14 provinces in the Philippines 72 provinces ( changwat ) in Thailand and 53
provinces ( tinhthanh pho ) in Vietnam
Climate HazardsFrequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts and exposure to landslides
The frequency of tropical cyclones floods and droughts was measured in terms of number of events per
year The cells in the maps indicate the number of events divided by the number of available years
(between 1980-2000 for droughts 1980-2001 for floods and 1980 and 2003 for cyclones) Details on the
construction of this map can be obtained from Peduzzi Dao and Herold (2005) The data in grid map
format is available from the PREVIEW website at
httpwwwgridunepchactivitiesearlywarningpreviewdatapreviewindex_aboutphp
The map of exposure to landslides is based upon the dataset from the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute
(NGI) The hazards mapping of NGI incorporates a range of data including slope soil soil moisture
conditions precipitation seismicity and temperature Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM)
elevation data at 30-arc-second resolution is incorporated Hazard values 4 and below are considered
negligible and only values from 5ndash9 are utilized for analysis To ensure compatibility with other datasets 1
is added to each of the values to produce a hazard ranking ranging from 6ndash10 This dataset is the result of
the collaboration among the Center for Hazards and Risk Research (CHRR) the Norwegian
Geotechnical Institute (NGI) and the Columbia University Center for International Earth Science andInformation Network (CIESIN)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2232
16
Sea level rise
The inundation zone map of a five-meter sea level rise was obtained from the Centers for the Remote
Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) at the University of Kansas USA and Haskell Indian Nations University
India Sea level rise or inundation zones were determined from the Global Land One-km Base Elevation(GLOBE) digital elevation model (DEM) (httpswwwcresiskueduresearchdatasea_level_rise)
Population Density
The population density map was obtained from the Urban Extent Database (GRUMP version 1) of the
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) Columbia University
(httpsedacciesincolumbiaedugpw) the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) the
World Bank and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) The data is in geographic
coordinates of decimal degrees based on the World Geodetic System spheroid of 1984 (WGS84) in 30-
arc-second (1-km) resolution
Biodiversity Areas Declared as NationalProtected Parks
Data on nationalprotected parks as well as maps were obtained from the Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS
Database of the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) at
httpwwwworldwildlifeorgsciencedataitem1875html
Adaptive Capacity
Human Development Index
The Human Development Index (HDI) was calculated using the following formula
HDI = (13)[ Standard of Living Index]
+ (13)[ Life Expectancy at Birth Index]
+ (13)[ Education Index ]
The Standard of Living Index was calculated using the Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) per
population (per capita) standardized using Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for the year 2005 The GDRP
data was obtained from different sources while the PPP exchange rate was obtained from the World
Bankrsquos World Development Indicators (WDI)
The Life Expectancy at Birth data was obtained from various sources such as country reports on the
Human Development Index of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP)
Education was measured using literacy rates the data of which was obtained from various sources such as
the UNDPrsquos country reports on the HDI
The index of each of the three components of the HDI was calculated following the methods used by the
UNDP
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2332
17
Poverty incidences and inequality (Gini coefficient)
Poverty incidences and the Gini coefficients for each of the provincesdistricts of Vietnam Malaysia
Cambodia the Philippines and Thailand were obtained from various sources such as the UNDPrsquos
country reports on the HDI and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) For Indonesia and Lao PDR theirpoverty incidences and Gini coefficients were calculated directly using the Indonesian Socio-economic
Survey (SUSENAS) and the Lao Socio-economic Survey (LECS3) data respectively
Technology and infrastructure
We defined electricity coverage as the percentage of household with access to electricity and the extent of
irrigation as the percentage of irrigated agricultural land Road density was defined as the length of road
per square kilometer Communication was defined as the number of fixed phone lines per person The
data for all these came from various sources including the websites of the national statistics offices of thedifferent Southeast Asian countries
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2432
18
Appendix 2 Climate Hazard Maps of Southeast Asia
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Cyclone Frequency
High 2501
Low 00056
Appendix 2A Tropical cyclone frequency (event per year from 1980-2003)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Flood Frequency
High 0762
Low 0000
Appendix 2B Flood frequency (event per year from 1980-2001)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2532
19
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Country Boundary
Annual Drought Frequency
High 0454545
Low 0000000
Appendix 2C Drought frequency (event per year from 1980-2000)
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 530 1060265 Kilometers
Legend6
7
8
9
10
Country Boundary
Appendix 2D Landslide exposure (2005)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2632
20
Thailand
Indonesia
Laos
Vietnam
Cambodia
Malaysia
Philippines
reg0 560 1120280 Kilometers
Legend
Sea Level Rise (5m)
Country Boundary
Appendix 2E Sea level rise (5-m inundation zone)
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2732
21
Appendix 3 List of Vulnerable ProvincesDistricts in Southeast Asia
Appendix 3A List of vulnerable provincesdistricts (Southeast Asia standard)
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
CAMBODIA
Mondol Kiri 083 4 002 037 099 3 056 42 1409 520 043
Rotanokiri 078 6 005 025 100 9 037 121 1409 520 042
Kampong Spoe 067 11 022 016 075 91 024 730 1029 520 051
Preah Vihear 064 13 001 026 082 11 038 152 1409 520 049
Pouthisat 056 24 017 027 050 31 041 428 1347 428 056
Takev 050 32 037 001 048 254 000 901 1208 321 054
Kandal 050 33 040 002 043 428 000 1243 1304 321 055
Kampot 049 35 022 018 044 122 026 603 1714 268 053
Kaoh Kong 049 37 018 029 036 10 044 192 1409 268 051
Kampong Chhnang 047 45 014 007 060 91 009 513 1258 428 052
Prey Veng 045 51 029 001 047 208 000 1044 1163 321 054
Batdambang 044 57 006 017 053 75 025 998 1105 428 053Stoeng Treng 043 62 002 006 066 8 009 104 1409 520 051
Siemreab-Otdar M 043 65 005 014 055 50 021 861 1230 428 053
Kampong Thum 042 69 004 008 060 49 012 682 1412 428 051
Svay Rieng 041 73 023 001 047 192 000 538 948 321 054
Kracheh 037 92 001 004 061 23 006 334 1409 520 053
INDONESIA
Central Jakarta 100 1 065 100 000 20419 000 889 21708 32 089
North Jakarta 100 2 100 061 004 12400 000 1446 9822 63 085
West Jakarta 090 3 077 068 004 9993 029 2093 7841 27 083
East Jakarta 079 5 065 064 003 13116 000 2391 5371 30 082
South Jakarta 077 8 065 060 004 12282 000 2001 8375 32 084
Kota Bandung 077 9 058 065 006 13298 000 2289 2374 37 075
Kota Surabaya 075 10 070 053 003 10729 000 2612 5761 75 079
Kota Bekasi 065 12 064 040 006 8260 000 1993 1496 36 072
Kota Bogor 063 14 065 033 008 6664 000 891 1017 89 070
Kota Depok 063 15 065 034 007 6959 000 1375 876 29 071
Kota Palembang 060 16 072 025 005 5012 000 1342 2112 94 074
Kota Tangerang 060 17 065 033 004 6638 000 1452 3679 47 076
Tangerang 060 18 078 013 010 2459 002 3259 1262 77 068
West Lampung 060 19 045 039 018 74 058 378 833 256 065
Jayawijaya 058 20 020 023 056 7 034 210 677 503 044
Kota Malang 058 21 049 045 005 9106 000 790 3211 69 075
Puncak Jaya 057 22 020 027 049 6 041 111 520 538 061
Jembrana 056 23 048 038 008 299 055 247 1414 93 069
Bogor 055 25 072 011 009 1366 007 3829 1562 124 070
Garut 053 26 073 007 011 678 006 2196 1015 176 067
Lebak 051 28 069 006 012 356 006 1155 724 122 063
Bandung 050 29 069 009 008 1438 003 4037 1302 136 071
Sumedang 050 31 069 008 009 692 007 1014 1189 136 069
Sukabumi 049 39 062 011 011 567 012 2169 936 168 067
Cianjur 048 41 064 007 011 568 006 2080 834 178 066
Buleleng 046 47 050 019 010 437 026 600 1106 93 067
Pandeglang 046 48 052 016 011 455 020 1063 805 146 064
Tanjung Jabung 045 49 047 018 013 43 027 204 1081 136 068
Karawang 045 50 063 005 011 983 000 1926 1661 148 067
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2832
22
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
South East Aceh 045 53 033 034 010 20 050 168 1002 253 070
Kota Balikpapan 045 54 040 031 006 468 044 470 3939 37 079
Bekasi 045 55 062 009 006 1891 000 1984 5058 69 077Paniai 044 56 026 014 036 10 021 114 596 518 054
South Bengkulu 043 58 037 021 017 56 030 130 855 380 067
Bangkalan 043 59 052 003 019 618 000 890 769 322 057
Purwakarta 043 61 060 005 009 731 003 753 1790 147 070
Sidoarjo 043 63 051 016 007 3321 000 1697 3100 141 076
Tanggamus 042 67 049 010 015 216 013 821 865 204 066
Majalengka 042 68 057 004 012 848 000 1168 725 195 064
Ponorogo 041 72 054 004 013 608 002 870 751 173 062
Kota Blitar 040 78 049 013 008 2587 000 127 1187 112 071
Tasik Malaya 039 79 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 80 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 81 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071
Serang 038 84 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 88 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 91 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 93 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 94 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 97 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 98 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 100 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 101 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 102 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 104 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 106 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 107 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 108 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 109 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 110 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 111 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 112 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 113 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 115 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 117 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 118 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 120 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086Manggarai 034 122 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 123 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 124 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 125 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 126 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 128 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 129 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 130 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 131 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 132 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 2932
23
CONPROV UL RANK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 38 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 42 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050Louang Namtha 045 52 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 66 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
Saravan 040 76 010 017 044 30 025 324 919 476 047
Khammouan 040 77 018 029 023 21 043 337 1496 324 056
Bokeo 035 114 032 001 029 18 002 145 1238 211 052
Attapeu 034 121 007 015 038 14 023 112 1333 406 057
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 7 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 27 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 30 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
Cagayan Valley 050 34 056 013 016 110 018 3051 1328 268 068
Bicol 049 36 059 004 021 255 004 5110 1151 436 069
Ilocos 049 40 069 003 011 335 002 4546 1342 165 071
Southern Tagalog 047 44 050 022 009 319 031 14300 4669 149 076
Eastern Visayas 043 60 048 001 025 163 001 3913 1159 454 065
Northern Mindanao 041 74 048 005 017 148 007 3952 2575 337 071
Central Visayas 038 86 045 005 017 388 004 6399 2347 373 072
Western Mindanao 038 87 043 002 021 207 001 3230 1764 398 065
Western Visayas 037 96 043 006 016 299 007 6844 2227 264 071
Southern Mindanao 036 103 047 004 013 174 004 4157 2412 225 072
Central Mindanao 036 105 041 004 018 186 004 3829 1993 280 067
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 43 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 75 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 82 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 119 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 127 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 46 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 64 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 70 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 71 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 83 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 85 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 89 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073Soc Trang 038 90 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 95 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 99 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077
Minh Hai 035 116 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3032
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3132
25
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
Tasik Malaya 039 42 054 003 011 682 000 1619 679 183 067
South Aceh 039 43 029 028 011 30 041 189 1572 277 070
Kota Madiun 039 44 047 013 007 2724 000 171 1322 92 071Serang 038 45 046 009 012 945 007 1755 1154 112 065
Dairi 038 46 048 007 011 99 010 265 1567 196 070
Gorontalo 037 47 030 015 020 100 022 422 465 328 063
Sampang 037 48 039 003 023 604 000 835 636 390 050
Magetan 037 49 051 004 010 833 000 617 1031 169 068
Indramayu 037 50 046 004 014 916 000 1689 873 185 060
Ciamis 037 51 049 005 010 573 003 1512 969 151 068
Madiun 037 52 049 004 012 737 000 642 851 214 063
Lahat 036 53 031 018 014 98 027 547 1174 297 069
East Lombok 036 54 023 019 021 675 024 1039 563 284 054
Ogan Komering Hilir 036 55 047 001 015 56 001 660 964 245 067
Kota Bitung 036 56 033 024 006 283 033 164 2557 92 076
Indragiri Hilir 036 57 048 002 013 45 003 631 1876 169 074
Malang 035 58 044 007 011 776 005 2336 1194 160 065
Subang 035 59 048 004 010 699 001 1380 981 169 066
Trenggalek 035 60 047 003 012 539 000 665 662 229 066
Kota Banjarmasin 035 61 051 006 005 1248 000 589 1539 29 070
Merauke 035 62 037 009 016 2 013 156 1834 339 065
West Sumba 035 63 010 003 048 96 005 400 382 421 053
Nganjuk 035 64 046 003 012 703 000 990 949 238 065
Kediri 035 65 045 005 011 953 000 1429 860 179 066
Lamongan 035 66 046 003 012 706 000 1187 830 237 064
Kota Kediri 034 67 043 017 001 3457 000 249 18983 135 086
Manggarai 034 68 027 007 026 99 010 484 396 321 061
Boyolali 034 69 036 013 011 844 013 923 952 175 066
Ngawi 034 70 044 003 013 592 000 828 727 234 062
Agam 034 71 039 011 010 189 015 425 1391 132 071
Langkat 034 72 027 023 010 160 033 996 1326 208 071
Jombang 034 73 043 006 011 1142 000 1222 991 228 067
Ogan Komering Ulu 033 74 038 011 010 112 015 255 1673 177 072
Padang Pariaman 033 75 042 006 010 295 007 378 1325 142 069
Bojonegoro 033 76 043 002 013 482 000 1229 921 264 063
Kota Padang 033 77 045 007 006 1511 000 800 2895 43 077
Sumenep 033 78 039 002 017 483 000 1005 1027 330 059
Pamekasan 033 79 038 004 015 881 000 763 537 311 057 Tabanan 033 80 040 010 008 400 012 398 1210 93 071
Temanggung 032 81 042 004 011 900 000 688 737 147 068
Blitar 032 82 043 004 011 727 000 1066 1056 165 067
Kota Padang Panjang 032 83 047 004 006 921 000 45 1741 44 074
Bangli 032 84 047 002 009 423 000 209 1059 68 066
LAO PDR
Phongsali 049 1 028 009 047 12 013 166 973 443 048
Houaphan 048 2 022 017 043 18 025 281 1113 454 050
Louang Namtha 045 3 038 006 033 14 010 145 1511 202 049
Oudomxai 042 4 030 000 044 19 000 265 962 425 050
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black
7222019 Climate Change Vulnerability Mapping for Southeast Asia
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullclimate-change-vulnerability-mapping-for-southeast-asia 3232
PROV UL RNK CHAZ SENS ADAP PDEN PROT POP INC POV HDI
MALAYSIA
Sabah 023 1 031 004 007 33 006 2932 6964 161 080
Kelantan 020 2 025 005 007 72 008 1506 4358 125 081Pulau Pinang 018 3 025 006 004 1212 000 1469 15682 19 088
PHILIPPINES
National Capital Region 078 1 054 071 005 14495 000 11600 6205 43 081
Cordillera Adm Region 051 2 070 005 013 78 007 1521 3111 145 071
Central Luzon 050 3 067 011 009 541 012 9721 1934 134 073
THAILAND
Krung Thep 047 1 061 020 000 4162 000 1232 18710 05 088
Samut Prakan 041 2 059 009 003 1853 000 1078 24321 98 089
Nonthaburi 039 3 059 005 003 1061 000 896 5236 03 080
Trang 034 4 041 014 006 123 020 602 4781 07 080
Samut Sakhon 034 5 054 003 003 538 000 452 31051 08 090
Chachoengsao 031 6 043 008 004 134 011 648 14963 49 086
Surat Thani 031 7 035 015 005 69 022 947 6377 08 082
Nakhon Si Thammarat 029 8 040 007 006 153 010 1504 4080 28 079
Satun 029 9 035 011 006 94 016 278 4584 65 080
Nakhon Nayok 028 10 026 020 005 118 029 251 4014 10 079
Ranong 026 11 033 010 006 47 014 178 4950 03 080
Uthai Thani 025 12 011 027 008 44 040 327 2899 87 076
Phatthalung 025 13 024 016 006 155 023 815 3205 33 078
Phetchaburi 025 14 014 026 004 70 039 501 5907 22 080
Pattani 024 15 036 002 007 309 000 21300 3642 163 076
Kanchanaburi 024 16 009 029 006 40 043 826 4074 88 079
Nakhon Pathom 024 17 039 002 003 381 000 809 8029 05 083
Tak 024 18 008 026 009 29 039 522 3506 209 075
VIETNAM
Lai Chau 047 1 042 015 023 33 022 506 1313 410 043
Dong Thap 043 2 065 003 006 498 001 1494 2975 193 072
Vinh Long 042 3 064 003 005 586 000 1066 1903 165 074
Can Tho 041 4 064 003 005 578 000 1814 2123 149 072
Tra Vinh 038 5 055 002 010 443 000 958 1841 307 068
An Giang 038 6 057 004 005 604 002 1976 2084 136 069
Tien Giang 038 7 059 004 004 748 000 1657 1839 174 073
Soc Trang 038 8 054 002 010 372 000 1194 1393 298 068
Ben Tre 037 9 055 003 007 650 000 1340 1663 317 072
Thai Binh 037 10 057 006 002 1179 000 1813 1493 99 077Minh Hai 035 11 052 005 005 267 005 1752 2034 214 072
Long An 033 12 053 002 004 334 000 1248 1695 109 073
Kien Giang 033 13 049 003 005 251 003 1351 3413 159 074
Notes
1 VUL Climate change vulnerability index RANK Rank of climate change vulnerability index (across SEA) CHAZ Multipleclimate hazard index SENS Sensitivity index ADAP Index of inverse adaptive capacity PDEN Population density in 2000(populationkm2 ) PROT Protected area ( of total area) POP population (thousand) INC per capita income in 2005(US$PPP) POV Poverty incidence HDI Human Development Index2 Color coding High vulnerability red bold moderate vulnerability black bold mild vulnerability black