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Climate Change & Water Resources: a review & French-Vietnamese related projects

Sylvain Ouillon1,2, Anny Cazenave1 1LEGOS, IRD / CNES, Univ. Toulouse, France – 2Univ. Science & Technology of Hanoi, Vietnam

Georges Vachaud

LTHE, CNRS, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, France

SEA-EU Net, STI Days, Bangkok, 21 January 2014

Water on Earth

Source : USGS Ocean : 97% of the total volume of water on Earth (1340 billion km3)

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How do we know that the Earth’s climate is changing?

The Earth is warming

Evolution of the Earth’s mean surface temperature since 1850

Increase of 0.85°C since 1900

IPCC AR5 : Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; 5th Assessment Report; 30 Sept. 2013

The ocean heat content is increasing

IPCC AR5

Increase in upper ocean (0-75 m) temperature : 0.1°C /decade since 1970

Ice mass loss from Greenland and Antarctica

measured by space techniques

since 1990 (in Gt) mass loss acceleration since 10-15 years

Antarctica + Greenland

Antarctica

Greenland

Shepherd et al., 2012

IPCC AR5

Rate of ice sheet mass loss Greenland : 34 +/- 40 Gt/yr (1992-2001); 215 (+/- 60) Gt/yr (2002-2011)

Antarctica : 30 +/- 67 Gt/yr (1992-2001); 147 (+/- 74) Gt/yr (2002-2011)

Global mean sea level measured by altimeter

satellites since 1993

Rate of sea level rise (1993-2013)

3.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr

6.5 cm

Sea level rise: a direct consequence of global warming

- Water mass addition

to the oceans from

land ice melt

(glaciers & ice sheets)

-Thermal expansion

of sea waters

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Mean Earth temperature : 15°C

If no ‘natural’ greenhouse effect (presence of water vapor + carbon dioxide) :

mean Earth’s temperature would be -18°C

Greenhouse Gas Emissions by human activities

(fossil fuel burning, land use change/deforestation)

Additional greenhouse effect

Climate change

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How do we know that the main cause of global warming

is increased greenhouse gas emissions

by human activities ?

Updated from S. Solomon, 2011

Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration

in the atmosphere

- - - -

Years before present

CO2:

400 ppmv

in 2012!

Present

Relation between CO2 emissions and temperature change

IPCC AR5

Cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions from 1870 (Gigatons of carbon)

T

emp

erat

ure

an

om

aly

(°C

)

State-of-the-art climate models reproduce well the increase in

Earth’s mean temperature ONLY IF they account for

anthropogenic forcing (greenhouse gas emissions + aerosols)

Observed and computed Earth’s mean temperature since 1860

Obser Observed temperature

Computed with natural forcings only

All forcings

IPCC AR5

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Ocean acidification

Decrease of sea water pH by 0.1 since the beginning of the industrial era

( 26% increase in hydrogen ion concentration)

Estimate for 2100: pH ~7.8

Gattuso et al., 2011

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Will the Earth continue to warm?

YES!

But how much will depend on future greenhouse gas emissions

4 scenarios for future greenhouse gas emissions considered

by IPCC AR5 for the 21st century

RCP 2.6

RCP 4.5

RCP 6.0

RCP 8.5

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

4 RCP scenarios defined by their total radiative forcing by 2100:

- RCP 2.6 (2.6 Wm-2)

- RCP 4.5 (4.5 Wm-2)

- RCP 6.0 (6.0 Wm-2)

- RCP 8.5 (8.5 Wm-2)

Maps of surface temperature change by the end of the 21st century

under 2 extreme warming scenarios

optimistic pessimitic

Mean temperature increase : 4°C

Average percent change in mean precipitation for 2 extreme warming scenarios

RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5

IPCC AR5

Ensemble mean projections of regional sea level rise by the end of the 21st century

(regional variability due to non uniform thermal expansion & salinity

+ solid Earth effects )

metres

Global mean sea level rise

of 50 cm (medium warming scenario)

Global mean sea level rise

of 75 cm (high warming scenario)

From Nicholls (2011)

Subsidence of coastal megacities during the past few decades

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Vertical crustal motions amplify the climate-related sea level rise

(if the ground is subsiding)

Long-term climate change Many aspects of climate change will persist

for many centuries even if emissions of

greenhouse gases are stopped!

• 20% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere more than

1000 years

• Sea level will continue to rise for mainy centuries in response

to deep ocean warming and associated thermal expansion

• Ice sheet mass loss may become irreversible (Greenland)

sustained warming above a certain threshold may lead

to near-complete loss of the Greenland ice sheet

over a time scale of 1000 years ( 7 m of sea level rise)

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Impacts of CC on Water Resources

summary

Source: Bates et al, 2008. Climate change and water resources, IPCC, Technical Paper VI

A constant acceleration of water cycle during the 20th century

Increase in precipitation in high N latitudes, decrease from 10°S to 30°N

Increasing frequency of heavy precipitation events & flood catastrophes X2

Increase in global runoff by 4% since 1950s

Dry areas X 2, and decline of water storage in glaciers

Sea level rise (higher impact of storm surges & floods, erosion, salinization)

Ocean acidification

… to be considered with other anthropogenic impacts

Increase in population and water needs

Increase in irrigated areas: +2%/year from 1960s (irrigation=70% of needs)

Decline of water quality (because of agricultural & industrial activities)

Changes in extremes based on multi-model simulations from 9 global coupled climate models in 2080–2099 relative to 1980–1999 for the A1B scenario.

Top: precipitation intensity (defined as the annual total precipitation divided by the number of wet days) Bottom: dry days (defined as the annual maximum number of consecutive dry days) Stippling denotes areas where at least 5 of the 9 models concur in determining that the change is statistically significant. The changes are given in units of standard deviations. (Bates et al 2008, IPCC)

Large-scale relative changes in annual runoff for the period 2090–2099, relative to 1980–1999. White areas are where less than 66% of the ensemble of 12 models agree on the sign of change, and hatched areas are where more than 90% of models agree on the sign of change (Milly et al., 2005) – IPCC 2008

Impacts on water resources: Forecasts

+ Enhanced evaporation, Increasing variability & extremes:

droughts & floods, typhoons (TBD)

+ Sea level rise (higher impact of storm surges & floods, erosion)

+ Ocean acidification

+ Necessary changes in agriculture, water infrastructure & management

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Exemples in Asia & actions in Vietnam

Two main aspects

1- Sea level rise, combined with groundwater pumping, yielding in particular to - Low land submersion - Salt intrusion in groundwater

2- Extreme hydrometeorologic events, yielding in particular to : - Flooding of metropole areas - Erosion of banks resulting in very high sediment concentration and degradation of river quality

IPCC estimate by 2100: + 0,5 m to + 0,8m + subsidence (groundwater pumping etc) Vietnam: coastline = 3200 km

In Vietnam, threats on the Red River & Mekong deltas (between 1 to 3 m above present sea level) 16 millions inhabitants in Red River Delta + 20 millions inhabitants in the Mekong Delta Loss of the most fertile areas (rice fields)

Sea level rise: storm surges, erosion, threats on deltas

Extreme hydrologic event, flooding of metropoles

Hanoi

Bangkok 2011

Extreme hydrologic event, banks erosion and sediment transport

The most important impact is the degradation of river quality due to adsorption, release and biotransformation of contaminants by sediments , with direct effects on - human health, with high mortality risk for children - aquatic life and biodiversity

Typical sources of contamination

Nutrients and pharmaceuticals from urban sewage resulting from a lack of water treatment plants Example Hanoi : nearly 1 Million m3/day, only 20% treated

Pesticides and fertilizers from agricultural runoff, in connexion with very strong increase of use

Metals and organic pollutants from industries (metallic, painting, textile, ..)

in Vietnam

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200

300

1950 1965 1980 1995 2010

kg

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a -1

… with a strong impact on coastal zones eutrophication, acidification, decline of marine resources

Suggested action plans

In order to advise city planners, governmental offices and

stakeholders, an in depth knowledge concerning the impact of climate change on the hydrologic cycle, with consequences on sea level rise, flooding, contamination of surface waters, ecotoxicological effects and degradation of aquatic life should be acquired.

Two complementary approaches

1- International collaboration of pluridisciplinary teams through joint

programmes of Research such as HORIZON 2020

2- Training young scientists, engineers and technicians

Let’s see two examples:

CARE in HoChiMinh city & USTH in Hanoi

CARE – Asian Centre for Water Research

A joint initiative of RESCIF to set up a

Flagship Research Centre

on the topic of water in SOUTH EAST ASIA

Implementation of a 600m2

building on the campus of

Technical University

HoChiMinh City to develop

research capacities on the

Mekong Delta and Saigon

River in partnership with

Grenoble University,

Polytechnics Lausanne,

Polytechnics Montreal, IRD

-Promote joint research in

areas of , energy, nutrition

and food security for the

development of emerging

countries

-Foster the training of young

engineers in the most advanced

technologies through joint

education programmes and

exchange of researchers and

students

-Implement innovative, targeted

and sustainable partnerships

between technological

universities and partnerships

with companies interested in

developing production

14 French–language universities

Africa: Morocco, Burkina, Senegal, Cameroon,

Europe: Switzerland, France, Belgium

Middle east and Asia: Lebanon, Vietnam

Americas: Canada, Haiti

www.rescif.net/en

Main objectives: - Development of tools tailored to environmental monitoring - Assessment of environmental changes and associated risks - Adaptation of international findings to regional specificities - Transfer of information to government, industries and communities

CARE, Research Topics

-Hydrologic risks and

vulnerability induced by

climate changes

-Sediment transport and

contamination of rivers

-Impact of water pollution

on health (arsenic, urban

water for hospitals)

-Urban hydrology

Related to CC

-Occurrence of Typhoons

-Effects of sea level rise

on flooding and salt water

intrusion in delta

-River banks erosion

-Inundation

CARE Resources

Human

50 persons involved,

including 8 full time

Material

High level standard of

equipments available at HCM

UT

ACTIVITIES

-Set up of program: autumn 2011 -1st selection of students spring 2012 -First set of exchanges of researchers: spring 2012 (4 visits in 2012) -Funds from Rhone-Alpes (F) and VNU (Vn) 2013 -Registration of VN students for Master (2) and PhD (1) in Grenoble -2nd selection of students and set of exchange of researchers in 2013 -Official inauguration of CARE, November 2013 -Set up of first research program (ARSENIC in Groundwater), Jan. 2014 -Development of MOOCS and short courses to be applied in 2014

The Department of Water-Environment-Oceanography at the University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH)

A Bachelor course since 2010

A Master course co-accredited by France & Vietnam since 2011

Participation of private companies (EDF-International, VEOLIA, CNR,…) to teaching

A technological platform (physics/chemistry & biology of the environment) since 2012

A PhD program to train the future Vietnamese Ass. Prof. in France (2010-20, ~60 grants)

A joint Research Institute on Water & Environment Sciences and Technologies since 2013

A New Model University of Excellence: an international-based Curriculum

The teaching and diploma system follow the so-called Bologna Process (L/M/D) widely in use in the world:

USTH is the first public Vietnamese University to use the Bologna Process System of Diploma

All courses are taught in English (two months of intensive English at the beginning of the MSc lectures)

Master diploma are co-habilitated by French Universities and by USTH

License (Bachelor) in 3 years Master in 2 years (M1 and M2) Doctorate (PhD) in 3 years

3 (VN and Intl. Professors) 5 (3/4 French Prof, 1/4 Vietnamese) 8

Water-Environment-Oceanography (WEO) : MSc diploma delivered by Univ. Toulouse, Univ. Poitiers, Univ. Montpellier 2, INPT, INSA Toulouse

Master degree in Water / Environment / Oceanography (WEO)

General purpose

Provide the students with strong transverse basis in

biology / ecology / physics / chemistry of water,

& project management, economy, laws

Focus on technologies such as

numerical modeling, ecological engineering,

hi-tech instrumentation, remote sensing

Stimulate creativity and innovation

Two specialities

Water Pollution & Treatment

Continental & Coastal Hydrosystems

Joint Research Institute in Water / Environment / Oceanography (WEO)

Hydrology, Oceanography, Meteorology Marine environment and resources, Coastal processes, Soils, Ecology,

Disaster forecasting and warning

• Project IMER-STI-IRD on “Integrated Study of Sediment Transport in Red River

Delta and Adjacent Coastal Zones”, 2013-2017

• Project IRD-U.Toulouse-INPT-HUS/VNU-INPC on “Nutrient cycles and

Contaminants in WaterS in Southeast Asia”, 2013-2017

IRD, ULCO, Univ. Montpellier 2, Univ. Toulouse, Univ. La Rochelle

Inst. Marine Env. Resources, Space Techn. Inst. VAST, HUS-VNU, INPC

Water & Environment Technology Processes in water treatment, Organic (pesticides) & Inorganic pollutants

• International joint VN-FR UMI on Membranes (Montpellier 2, IET VAST)

Poitiers, Inst. Chimie CNRS, INSA Toulouse, INPT, ENGEES, Limoges

Inst. Env. Tech. VAST, Institute of Chemistry VAST

New SEA-EU partners WELCOME !!

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University of Science and Technology of Hanoi Department Water Environment Oceanography

http://www.usth.edu.vn/ sylvain.ouillon@ird.fr

CARE – Asian Centre for Water Research Flagship Research Centre

on the topic of water in SOUTH EAST ASIA

http://www.rescif.net/en nicolas.gratiot@ird.fr / vdthanh@hcmut.edu.vn

Thanks for your attention