Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group

Henry BrecherMary DavisPaolo GabrielliDon KennyPing-Nan LinVictor Zagorodnov

Funding provided by:NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar ProgramsNASA: Earth Sciences (Glaciology)NOAA: PaleoclimatologyGary Comer Foundation

Postdoctoral Researchers:Emilie BeaudonStacy Porter Roxana Sierra

Graduate Student:Donaldi Permana

Global Climate Change:The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options

Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, GeographyDirector, Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University

Dasuopu,Himalayas

Bruce Plateau, Antarctic Peninsula

Crawford Point,Greenland

Climate ExplorationsA Matter of Dollars and Sense:

Climate Change, Carbon Standards, and Public HealthColumbus Public Health, October 30, 2014

Key Points

Earth’s climate is changing - the world is warming – that debate is over!

Weather and climate are very different

Global Climate Change (GCC) involves many changes - not just temperature(precipitation, sea level, glaciers, ecosystems are changing)

Human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO2) & other Greenhouse Gases(GHGs), as well as aerosols (particles), into Earth’s atmosphere are thedominant cause of warming of our planet since the 1950s

Recent scientific assessments highlight the role of human activities

The world is challenged by its growing need for energy

Year A.D.

2005 & 2010 warmest years on record

0.75°C1.35°F

Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Our Earth is warming!Environmental conditions are changing!

Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index

Year A.D.

2005 & 2010 warmest years on record

0.75°C1.35°F

Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Our Earth is warming!Environmental conditions are changing!

Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index

Year A.D.

Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean

Our Earth is warming!Environmental conditions are changing!

Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index

The climate of the last 30 years has been remarkable!

Increased frequency & intensity of extreme weather

Heatwaves: W. & Cen. Europe (2003) ~70,000 deathsE. Europe & Russia (2010) ~55,000 deaths

(fires / smoke)

Prolonged droughts (fires)

Floods (e.g., Australia, Pakistan, Europe)

(IPCC models predict:These types of system responses toglobal climate change will becomemore frequenthttp://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Each successive decade (10-year interval) has been warmer than the last

Arctic Amplification

Large and Fast Changes in the Arctic

The 2012 minimum was19% below the previousminimum (2007)

September 16, 2012

National�Snow�and�Ice�Data�Center�(UC�Ͳ Boulder,�NOAA)

Cumulative Decrease in Global Glacier Ice

(cu

mile

s)

Year

Meier et al., Science, 2007

Many changes are underway ……

Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

Photo: Lonnie G Thompson

Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

2002Photo: Lonnie G Thompson

1977

Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

2002Photo: Lonnie G Thompson

1977Photo:�Lonnie�G.�Thompson

Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru

2002Photo: Lonnie G Thompson Photo:�Lonnie�G.�Thompson

Qori�Kalis�Glacier,�Quelccaya�Ice�Cap,�Peru

Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson

Qori�Kalis�Glacier,�Quelccaya�Ice�Cap,�Peru

Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson

Muir Glacier, SE Alaska

August, 1941 (photo by William Field) August, 2004 (photo by Bruce Molnia)

88% of the ice present in 1912 has disappeared40% of the ice present in 2000 had disappeared by 2013

KilimanjaroAfrica

17

Total Area of Ice on Kilimanjaro

after Hastenrath and Greischar, J. Glaciology, 1997

1912

18

Total Area of Ice on Kilimanjaro

2007

Thompson et al., PNAS, 2009

October, 2013

Ice Fields near

Puncak Jaya, Papua,

Indonesia drilled in 2010

20

1936

2001

1991

2010

Courtesy:�Lonnie�G.�Thompson

20102012

Courtesy:�Lonnie�G.�Thompson

201020122014

Courtesy:�Lonnie�G.�Thompson 24

The�West��Antarctic�ice�sheet�is�losing�mass�at�a�very�rapid�rate�andthe�loss�appears�to�be�unstoppable��………………………..

More�info:�http://www.nasa.gov/jpl/news/antarcticͲiceͲsheetͲ20140512/#.VAcgͲmPp nE

May 12, 2014A new study – a rapidly melting section of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet appears to be in an irreversible state of decline, with nothing to stop the glaciers in this area from melting into the sea. Geophysical Research Letters (Rignot et al.)Science (Joughin et al.)

Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602)Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/).

Global Sea Level is Rising Faster

J. Hansen et al., Global Surface Temperature Change, Reviews of Geophysics, 2010.

Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean

(2nd warmest winter)

We tend to forget that the impacts are global because we think locally

January�2014�– Earth’s�fourth�warmest�JanuaryLand�&�Ocean�temperature�departures�for�January�2014

Base�period:�1981�Ͳ 2010

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/1

We tend to forget that the impacts are global because we think locally Climate and Weather are Quite Different!

Climate is what you expectWeather is what you get

The dog is the weather

The dog walker is the climate

Columbus: 29.7 oF for Jan (1985-2014) avgColumbus: 22.6 oF for Jan 2014

Natural mechanisms influence climate

Changes in solar output

Changes in the amount of volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere

Internal variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system(e.g., ENSO, monsoon systems, NAO)

Natural mechanisms

Human factors also influence climate

Non-natural mechanisms

Changes in the concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases

Changes in aerosols and particles from burning fossil fuels and biomass

coal (sulfate aerosols) – coolingbiomass (black carbon) – warming

Changes in the reflectivity (albedo) of Earth’s surface and the hydrologic cycle

Smoke from fires in Guatemala and Mexico (May 14, 1998)

Source: NOAA and Scripps

The�natural�greenhouse�effect�(GHE)�keeps�Earth�warm�(14°C�or�57°F)

The�“enhanced”�(anthropogenic)�GHE�warms�Earth�even�more!

Our understanding of the role of ‘Greenhouse Gases’ (CO2 and water vapor) is not new …… Three recent scientific reports concur that human activities have beenthe dominant cause of the warming of our planet since the 1950s

IPCC – The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1988 - 2014)

The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) provides a clear and up to date viewof the current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change.

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Impacts, Adaptation& Vulnerability

Physical Science Basis

Mitigation

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, manyof the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.”

“Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is *extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

*Extremely likely means 95% confidence

(1)

(2)

Climate Change 2013: Summary for Policymakers

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

Approved by 113 governments

The IPCC began assessing global climate change in 1988

The Fifth Assessment was released in late 2013 and early 2014It was a 6-year effort by

209 Lead authors (39 countries)50 Review editors

600 Contributing authors from 32 countries

Approved by 113 governments

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, manyof the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia.”

“Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is *extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”

*Extremely likely means 95% confidence

(1)

(2)

Climate Change 2013: Summary for Policymakers

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5-SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

Approved by 113 governments

Huber and Knutti, Nature Geoscience, 2012

Three major scientific assessments concur that human activities have been the dominant cause of warming of our planet since the 1950s

Climate Change: Evidence & Causes(U.S. National Academy of Sciences & Britain’s Royal Society)

CLIMATE CHANGE IS ONE OF THE DEFINING ISSUES OF OUR TIME.

It is now more certain than ever, based on many linesof evidence, that humans are changing Earth’sclimate.

- Atmosphere and oceans have warmed- Arctic sea ice is strongly declining in summer- Arctic sea ice is becoming thinner and younger- Sea level is rising - Climate variability is increasing (more extremes)

http://nas-sites.org/americasclimatechoices/events/a-discussion-on-climate-change-evidence-and-causes/

Three major scientific assessments concur that human activities have been the dominant cause of warming of our planet since the 1950s

Climate Change Impacts in the United StatesThird U.S. National Climate Assessment

(National Science and Technology Council & the U.S. Global Change Research Program)

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/highlights

Ice Cores

Pollen

Corals

Ocean & Lake Sediments

Tree rings

Speleothems

Various archival systems provide paleoclimate records

Thompson et al., PNAS, 2006

MWP

LIA

Reference period (1961 – 1990 A.D.)

77 new coresHigh elevation, low latitude ice core records

record large-scale climate changes

Thompson et al., PNAS, 2006

500

600

700

1100

900IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD

Today

800

CO2 remains in theatmosphere for decadesto millennia

Dome C

EPICA Dome C ice core extends back through eight glacial and interglacial stages (800,000 years) recording changesin the composition of Earth's atmosphere

500

600

700

1100

900IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD

Today

800

CO2 remains in theatmosphere for decadesto millennia

The fraction of CO2 remaining in the air, after emission by fossil fuel burning, declines rapidly at first, but 1/3 remains in the air after a century and 1/5 after a millennium (Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 2287-2312, 2007).

today

Energy consumption growing

Coal – 40% Natural gas – 20%Renewables – 20%Nuclear – 15%Oil / Other Petroleum – 5%

World electricity65% fossil fuels

… to unprecedented demands

Looking ahead to 2030 … the sustained growth in global demand for electricity is inevitable.

Demand is forecasted to more than double by 2030 (Energy Information Administration).

2030

Source: Mark Little, General Electric Global Research

How the world chooses to supply this power will determine in large measureEarth’s future climate.

This is a global problem and will require global-scale solutions.

Our options include:

Mitigation (increased efficiencies and fuel switching)

Adaptation (taking measures to reduce the adverse impacts)

Suffering is possible if these approaches are insufficient

Our greatest challenges of the 21st Century will be:(1) learning how to get along with each other and (2) learning how to get along with our Planet.

These two challenges deal with human behavior andare closely related!

Earth

For Global Climate Change --- Nature is the Time Keeper!