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Climate Finance:The Case of Nicaragua
Dr. Paul OquistNicaragua
Member of the Standing Committee of Climate Financefor Latin America and the Caribbean
Manila, Philippines, 16 July, 2013 1
EXPANSION AND CONVERSION OF THEENERGY MATRIX: 25% RENEWABLE IN 2007 TO
90% IN 2020
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2007 2012 2017 2022
Hydro, 10.8% Hydro, 8.0%
Hydro, 40.7%
Hydro, 47.3%
Geo, 6.1%Geo, 14.3%
Geothermal, 35.7%
Geothermal, 27.5%
Wind, 6.6%
Wind, 12.1%
Wind, 9.8%
Biomass, 8.4%
Biomass, 6.8%
Biomass, 5.1%
Biomass, 4.2%
FUEL OIL, 66.6%
FUEL OIL, 64.2%
FUEL OIL, 6.4%
FUEL OIL, 10.2%
DIESEL OIL, 8.0%
Gene
raci
ón e
léct
rica
(GW
H)
Non
ren
ewab
le:
75%
Non
rene
wab
le: 6
4%
No
reno
vabl
es: 6
%
Rene
wab
le: 3
6%
Reno
vabl
es: 9
4%
Rene
wab
le: 9
0%N
on r
enov
able
s: 1
0%
Rene
wab
le:
25%
3
NICARAGUA'S ENERGY PROJECTS
TUMARÍN HYDROELECTRICPLANT, RAAS
253 MW; US$ 1,100 Billion(2018)
Other Hydroelectric Projects:
Larreynaga(17.2 MW, US67.9 mill)Hydropantasma (12MW, US$37.4 mill)El Diamante (5MW, US$13.4 mill)
(34MW, US$118.7 million)Eolo (Rivas) (44MW,US$105.9 mill)Blue Power (Rivas)(40MW, US110mill)ALBA Rivas (Rivas)(40MW, US$87 mill)(124 MW; US$ 302.9 million)
GEOTHERMALSan Jacinto-Tizate (72MW)
Casita-San Cristóbal(35MW)
(107MW; US$ 585.59 mill)
SOLAR PANELSMICRO AND SMALLHYDROELECTRICPROJECTS FORISOLATED AREAS
San Jacinto-Tizate
Solar Project in LaTrinidad, Diriamba
BIOMASS
• CASUR –Benjamín Zeledón Sugarmill(2015): 24MW; US$24.8 millons
• Montelimar Sugarmill (2016): 30MW;US$27.8 millons
2012-2016: 54MW* y US$52.6 Millones
• Projects based on agribusiness plantsresidues :
• Sugarcane• Oil palm (oil)• urban waste
*on season
Presentcontribution
Netgeneration in
2012Ingenio Nicaragua SugarEstate 30 MW 77.3 MWIngenio San Antonio 30 MW 48.5 MW
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN HYDROPOWERINVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN HYDROPOWER
Volcán Casitas San Cristóbal. Fuente: INETER
5
Centrales en Operación-Santa Bárbara-Centroamérica-Las Cañas-El Sardinal-El Wawule-Siempre Vivas-Salto Grande
Proyectos en Construcción-Pantasma-Larreynaga-Tumarín
Proyectos con Licencia- Salto Y-Y- Piedra Puntuda- El Diamante
Proyectos Candidatos-Boboké-Copalar Bajo-Consuelo-Pajaritos-La Estrella-Valentín-Piedra Fina-Brito-Corriente Lira
GEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL ESTIMATED AT 1,500 TO 2,000 MWGEOTHERMAL POTENTIAL ESTIMATED AT 1,500 TO 2,000 MW
6
WIND POTENTITAL IN NICARAGUAWIND POTENTITAL IN NICARAGUA
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES INWIND PROJECTS
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES INWIND PROJECTS
Noth Sector1600 projectsNoth Sector1600 projects
RAAN & RAAS 120projects
RAAN & RAAS 120projects
Managua 200projects
Managua 200projects
Eastern Sector640 projects
Eastern Sector640 projects
WesternSector700 projects
WesternSector700 projects
South Sector360 projectsSouth Sector360 projects
Rural Electrification by Extension of NetworksRural Electrification by Extension of Networks
North 90 (14%)SettlementsNorth 90 (14%)Settlements
RAAN & RAAS 18 (3%)RAAN & RAAS 18 (3%)West 100 (16%)West 100 (16%)
Managua 360 (56%)Managua 360 (56%)
South 40 (7%)South 40 (7%)
Oriente 22 (3%)Oriente 22 (3%)
Standardization of electrical serviceStandardization of electrical service
Sites in studiesfor SmallHydroelectricPlants (SHP)
Sites in studiesfor SmallHydroelectricPlants (SHP)
9
57.660.4
63.465.6
68.5
72.475.4
79.481.6
83.185.1
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Increase in the coverage of electricityservice in Nicaragua (%)
SAVING BY REDUCING OIL IMPORTS FOR ENTRYOF RENEWABLE ENERGY PROJECTS
2013-2020
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Barriles
Millones US$
• Brasil presenta la puntuaciónmás alta con 2.64.
• Nicaragua ocupa el segundolugar con una puntuación total2.13, en gran medida debido aque encabezó la lista entérminos de inversiones enenergía limpia y disponibilidadde microcréditos verdes.
• Panamá fue tercero con unamarca de 1,97, gracias a unimportante esfuerzo en lagestión de las emisiones degases de efecto invernadero ypor tener un marco facilitadoracogedor.
11
CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND LOSSES
NIÑA-NIÑO ALTERNATION
• 2005: Niña. Damages and losses.
• 2006: Niño. Losses by drought
• 2007: Niño Transition. Drought in thefirst crop, rainfall deficit in June andJuly.
• 2007: Niña. Losses due to excessivemoisture.
• 2008: Niña. Rainfall excess and floods.
• 2009: Niño. Losses and damages insecond crop.
• 2010: Niña. Losses due to rainfallexcess.
• 2011: Tropical Depresion12E13
Agricultural losses 2005-2010
392,000 ha. Planted areas lost 9% of the total area planted US$ 206.3 million, equivalent to 2.68%
of GDP
ECLAC on Tropical Depresion12-E(October 2011)
• 148,530 people affected, including 16deaths
• US$ 445.4 million, equivalent to 6% ofGDP, in damages
• Nicaragua requires US$ 1,963.1 millionfor rehabilitation, reconstruction andadaptation
PETROCARIBE MECHANISM
Nicaragua has a guaranteed supply100% of its oil needs, with 25years deferred payment with two-year grace period and 2% interestthan half of the oil bill.
With half deferred funds invested62% in socio-productive projectsthat stimulate the economy andallow the returns to amortizepayments in the form and time.
The other 38% is used to fundsocial projects not returnable, fullyor partially.
BANK OF ALBA(Venezuela)
CORRESPONDENT BANK OF ALBA
(CARUNA R.L)
Cooperación Venezolana a Nicaragua
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Anual 184.9 461.0 443.0 533.0 609.3 765.6Acumulado 184.9 645.9 1,088.9 1,621.9 2,231.2 2,996.8
Cooperación Venezolana en el marco del ALBA-TCP (millones de dólares)
184.9
461.0 443.0
533.0
609.3
765.6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cooperación Venezolana en el marco del ALBA-TCP(millones de dólares)
Fuente: BCN
INVESTMENT PORTAFOLIOUS$ 10.9 BILLION IN 2012-2016
HIGHER ECONOMICGROWTH TO REDUCE
POVERTY ANDERADICATE EXTREME
POVERTY
HIGHER ECONOMICGROWTH TO REDUCE
POVERTY ANDERADICATE EXTREME
POVERTY
EXPANSION ANDTRANSFORMATION OFTHE ENERGY MATRIXUS$ 1,742.0 MILLION
REFINERY “SUPREMEDREAM OF BOLÍVAR”US$ 3,880.4 MILLION
TELECOMUNICATIONSUS$ 2,018.3 MILLONES
TOURISMUS$ 555 MILLION
ELECTRONICSMANUFACTURINGUS$ 600 MILLION
MINING EXPLORATIONUS$ 359.4 MILLION
OIL EXPLORATIONUS$ 353.6 MILLION
PORTS US$ 281 MILLION
AGROINDUSTRYUS$ 334.3 MILLION
FREE ZONESUS$ 644.6 MILLION
OTHERSUS$ 121 MILLION
16
THE GRAND INTEROCEANIC CANAL OF NICARAGUA US$ 40 BILLION:Wet and Dry Canal, Airport, Railway, Free Zones in the Caribbean and Pacific, and Pipeline
THE GRAND INTEROCEANIC CANAL OF NICARAGUA US$ 40 BILLION:Wet and Dry Canal, Airport, Railway, Free Zones in the Caribbean and Pacific, and Pipeline
INVESTMENT PORTAFOLIOUS$ 9.8 BILLION IN 2012-2016
HIGHER ECONOMICGROWTH THAT
CONTRIBUTES TOERADICATE EXTREME
POVERTY
HIGHER ECONOMICGROWTH THAT
CONTRIBUTES TOERADICATE EXTREME
POVERTY
EXPANSIÓN ANDTRANSFORMATION OFTHE ENERGY MATRIX
US$ $ 1,742.0 MILLION
REFINERY “SUPREMEDREAM OF BOLÍVAR”US$ 3,880.4 MILLION
TELECOMUNICATIONSUS$ 2,018.3 MILLON
TOURISMUS$ 555 MILLION
ELECTRONICSMANUFACTURINGUS$ 600 MILLION
MINING EXPLORATIONUS$ 359.4 MILLION
OIL EXPLORATIONUS$ 353.6 MILLION
PORTS US$ 281 MILLION
AGROINDUSTRYUS$ 334.3 MILLION
FREE ZONESUS$ 644.6 MILLION
OTHERSUS$ 121 MILLION
17
THE GRAND INTEROCEANIC CANAL OF NICARAGUA US$ 40 MIL MILLONES:Wet and dry Canal, Airport, Railway, Free Zones in the Caribbean and Pacific, and Pipeline
THE GRAND INTEROCEANIC CANAL OF NICARAGUA US$ 40 MIL MILLONES:Wet and dry Canal, Airport, Railway, Free Zones in the Caribbean and Pacific, and Pipeline
SUPERCARGUEROS DOMINARÁN EL COMERCIOMARÍTIMO MUNDIAL
18
Se proyecta que los buques post-Panamax representarán el 30% deltota de buques 2030; y 62% de lacapacidad total de TEUs de la flota deportacontenedores en ese momento.
US Army Corps of Engineers, 2012
Se proyecta que los buques post-Panamax representarán el 30% deltota de buques 2030; y 62% de lacapacidad total de TEUs de la flota deportacontenedores en ese momento.
US Army Corps of Engineers, 2012
La principal limitaciónde Panamá para unaampliación mayor es lafalta de agua.
La principal limitaciónde Panamá para unaampliación mayor es lafalta de agua.
• 400 metros de largo , 59 metros de ancho y 73 metros de altura• Calado demasiado profundo para canal de Panamá y otros puertos en
América.
• 400 metros de largo , 59 metros de ancho y 73 metros de altura• Calado demasiado profundo para canal de Panamá y otros puertos en
América.
DISEÑO DE BUQUE MAERSK TRIPLE E
BUQUES DE CONTENEDORES DEL TIPOMAERSK TRIPLE E
19
Ambas vías, Panamá yNicaragua seríancomplementarias.
INTEROCEANIC GRAND CANAL OF NICARAGUA: MAIN ECONOMIC IMPACTSEXPECTED IN NICARAGUA
20
Beginsconstruction
+6.3 +10.4 +7.7 +6.7 +5.2 -
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
623,458 662,992848,630
1,018,581
1,303,783
1,608,402
1,927,527
FORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN NICARAGUA 2012-2018
+185
,638
+355
,589
+640
,791 +945
,410
+1,2
64,5
35
5th year (2018)• More formal jobs than
casual ones.• 51.10% in 2018• 20.79% in 2012
The increase in revenue, would be a source of funding tofight poverty.
The increase in revenue, would be a source of funding tofight poverty.
201216.46% of GDP
2013Estimated
income US$1,897.40million
2018ProjectedIncome
US$ 4,081.25million
+115.10% more than 2013+115.10% more than 2013
We are working with ECLAC to estimate the effects of the Grand Interoceanic Canal on all sectors of the Nicaraguan economy, onCentral America and South America.We are working with ECLAC to estimate the effects of the Grand Interoceanic Canal on all sectors of the Nicaraguan economy, onCentral America and South America.
5.04.0
-2.2
3.6
5.4 5.24.2
10.8
15.1
12.6
10.79.2
5.04.0
-2.2
3.6
5.4 5.24.2 4.5 4.7 4.9
4.0 4.0
-4-202468
10121416
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Nicaragua (con Canal)
Nicaragua
Nicaragua's Economic Growth with and without Canal(Percentage Points)
Source: PEF, IMF & Own estimates
General Poverty in Nicaragua(Percentage points)
Extreme Poverty in Nicaragua(Percentage points)
403.583 people out ofgeneral poverty by2018
403.583 people out ofgeneral poverty by2018
The multiplier effectwill further reduceextreme poverty inlater years
The multiplier effectwill further reduceextreme poverty inlater years
353.935 peopleout of extremepoverty by 2018
353.935 peopleout of extremepoverty by 2018
COMPANIES CONTRACTED BY HKND
21
HKND
CHINA RAILWAYCONSTRUCTIONCORPORATIONLIMITED (CRCC)
ENVIRONMENTAL RESOURCESMANAGEMENT
(ERM)
McLarty
HARBOURGROUPKIRKLAND &
ELLIS LLP.
Eutelsat
MCKINSEY &CO.
BANK OF ALBA
PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS
HKND
PRIVATE INVESTMENTBANK
MULTILATERAL BANKS
OTHERS IN FUTURE, WHENFEASIBILITY STUDIES ARE
COMPLETED
POVERTY ANDINEQUALITYREDUCTION
MACROECONOMICSTABILITY AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
SOCIAL COHESIONAND DYNAMIC,
POSITIVEINVESTMENT
CLIMATE
JOB CREATION PRODUCTIVE INVESTMENTS
LOWER COST OF LIVING
PUBLIC SAFETY
MODEL BASED ON CHRISTIAN VALUES, SOCIALIST IDEALS AND SOLIDARITY PRACTICES
CHALLENGE:CLIMATECHANGE
CHALLENGE:WORLD
ECONOMY
RECOVERINGVALUES
CAPACITY BUILDING
PROGRAMS,CAPITALIZATIONAND SUBSIDIES
CITIZEN POWERAND PUBLICPARTICIPATION
GRAND ALLIANCEWORKERS-PRODUCERS ANDENTREPRENEURS-GOVERNMENT
WAGECONSENSUS; 1DIGIT INFLATION;HIGH RESERVES,FREE EXCHANGEAND DEBTSREDUCTION
22PROTECTION OF MOTHER EARTH AND
ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
OVERCOMINGVICIOUSCIRCLES
BUILDINGVIRTUOUS
CIRCLES
ENERGY INVESTMENTS
INFRAESTRUCTURE
RESTORATIONOF RIGHTS
TRAINING ANDSKILLSDEVELOPMENT,TECHNOLOGY ANDLANGUAGES
KNOWLEDGE ANDSKILLS FOR
DEVELOPMENT SCIENCE,TECHNOLOGYAND INNOVATION
• Economic growthabove 5% in 2011 and2012
Nicaragua leading economicgrowth in Centralamerica
High export growth:+19% in 2012/2011
Exports doubled between2012 and 2006
Investment record: Morethan 3 times that in 2006
Good recovery in2010 and economicgrowth in 2011 and
2012
Good recovery in2010 and economicgrowth in 2011 and
2012
1 digit inflation
23
Sustainable fiscal deficit
Fewer unemploymentMore work: 48.2% morethan in 2006
Formal employmentgrowth: 52.8% more people
registered than in 2006
Constant reduction ofnational debt
Fiscal stabilityIncreased workFiscal stability
Increased work
High International Reserves: 2.4 timesthe monetary base, allows free exchange
and currency stability
24
SURVEY OF COST OF LIVING IN WORLD: MANAGUA,NICARAGUA (POSITION 213) THE CITIES WITH THE
SECOND LOWEST COST OF LIVING
25
THE BEST PUBLIC SAFETY IN CENTRAL AMERICA
8,095
3,130
5,222
1,035366 387
7,334
5,475
3,8002,811
720 272
Guatemala Honduras Costa Rica El Salvador Panamá Nicaragua
Vehicular theft in Central America
2010 2011
Honduras Guatemala El Salvador Panamá Nicaragua Costa Rica
91.6
38.5
69.2
15.412.6 10.0
84.0
34.030.0
18.0
11.0 8.9
Homicide Rates in Central America(per 100,000 inhabitants)
2011 2012
Fuentes: UNODC; OEA; Policía Nacional
Nicaragua is the second safest country in CentralAmerica and the third in Latin America (Indicators:armed conflict, organized crime, kidnapping, etc.)Fuente: Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), 2012 SecurityRisk Report
8.8 (Global Rates-WHO)26 (Latin American Rates – UNDP)
In 2012, vehicular theftin Nicaragua continuesto low at 218 vehicles
(30% less than in 2011)26