Climate in Asia and the Pacific

8/3/2019 Climate in Asia and the Pacific

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Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research

CLIMATE IN ASIAAND THE PACIFIC:A Synthesis of APN Activities

Asia-Pacic Network for

Global Change Research

2011


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Citation: Manton MJ, Heath L, Salinger J and Stevenson LA. 2011. Climate in Asia and the

Pacic: A Synthesis of APN Activities, pp78. Asia-Pacic Network for Global Change Research.

Design and layout: Xiaojun Deng

Asia-Pacic Network for Global Change Research (APN)

ISBN978-4-9902500-1-0

Asia-PacificNetworkforGlobal Change Research


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I

Work or the present Synthesis Climate in Asia and the Pacic: A Synthesis o APN Activities

began in November 2009 with a scoping workshop ollowed by an authors workshop in August

2010. Te work entailed summarizing over ty scientic research and capacity building projects

unded by the APN that had a climate-related element whether natural climate variability and/

or climate change. Te contributing authors o the present synthesis report are leaders in their

eld and many o them are authors or the next Fith Assessment Report o the Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change (IPCCAR5). Te present report will be a useul tool not only or

the IPCC, but also or scientists, decision-makers and educators as it identies both researchgaps and uture research activities or the Asia-Pacic region in the context o natural climate

variability and climate change.

etsuro Fujitsuka

Director, APN Secretariat

Climate in Asia and the Pacifc:A Synthesis of APN Activities

Message from the Director


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II

Contributors

Editors:Michael J MANONLance HEAHJames SALINGERLinda Anne SEVENSON

Contributing Authors:Wenjie DONG (China)Lance HEAH (Australia)Srikantha HERAH (Japan)Kanayathu KOSHY (Malaysia)Won-ae KWON (Republic o Korea)Rodel LASCO (Philippines)

AILIKUN (China)Michael J MANON (Chairperson, Australia)James SALINGER (New Zealand)Madan Lall SHRESHA (Nepal)Linda Anne SEVENSON (Japan)


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III

Contents

Message from the Director IContributors IIContents IIIExecutive Summary IV

Background of APN ........................... 11.1. Introduction 1

1.2. APN Objectives 21.3. APN Activities 31.4. APN Climate Synthesis 3

Overview of APN Climate Activities .... 52.1. APN Climate Activities 52.2.APNEvaluation:Signicance

and Impacts 62.3. APN Evaluation: Highlights of

Outstanding Projects 82.4. CAPaBLE Phase One Evaluation:

Highlights 13

The Synthesis .................................... 16

3.1. Food, Agriculture and Climate 163.1.1. Seasonal to inter-annual

climate variability 16

3.1.2. Long-term change 19

3.2. Seasonal Climate Predictionand Applications 263.2.1. Issuesandsignicance 26

3.2.2. Scope of the activities 26

3.2.3. Outputs and outcomes 273.2.4. Conclusions and

recommendations 28

3.3. Climate Variability, Trends and Extremes 293.3.1. Issuesandsignicance 29


3.3.3. Outcomes 30

3.3.4. Conclusions and

recommendations 31

3.4. Regional Climate Modelling 323.4.1. Issuesandsignicance 32

3.4.2. Scope of the activities 323.4.3. Outcomes 33


recommendations 34

3.5. Vulnerability and Adaptation toClimate Change 353.5.1. Issuesandsignicance 35


3.5.3. Outcomes 36

3.5.4. Conclusions 383.5.5. Recommendations 39

3.6. Climate Change Mitigation 403.6.1. Issuesandsignicance 40


3.6.3. Outcomes 40


recommendations 43

3.7. Coastal Cities and Climate Change 443.7.1. Issuesandsignicance 44


3.7.3. Outcomes 45


recommendations 46

3.8. Climate Change Policy and Outreach 473.8.1. Issuesandsignicance 47


3.8.3. Climate change policy 47

3.8.4. Outreach 48


recommendations 49

Emerging Issues and Priorities ............. 504.1. Science and Research (APN Goal 1) 504.2. Policy and Outreach (APN Goal 2) 524.3. Capacity Building (APN Goal 3) 524.4. Cooperating and Networking (Goal 4) 52

Conclusions and Recommendations ..... 53

Apendices ......................................... 55Appendix 1: Tables and Figures 55Appendix 2: Abbreviations & Acronyms 69

Appendix 3: Peer Reviewed Papers& Other Publications 71


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IV

Te adverse eects o climate change and natural climate variability pose a signicant threat tohumanity, with the poorest communities being the most vulnerable. Scientic understanding o ourclimate is advancing at a signicant rate, with new inormation emerging about the likely impacts oclimate change, the options to adapt to these changes, and new approaches to mitigation.

Trough national and international ora, it is becoming clear that climate is one o the most pressingissues in the political arena today. Tis has been evident in government and stakeholder meetings suchas the 34th G8 Summit (Japan, 2008) and the most recent United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) 16th Conerence o the Parties (COP) Meeting (Cancun, Mexico,2010) and the Copenhagen Accord, where commitments to climate change have been underscored,particularly the need to support developing countries or nancing and transerring knowledge and

skills to respond eectively to climate change.

IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel or Climate Change and its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)states that warming o the climate system is unequivocal and that climate change will interact atall scales with other aspects o the global environment and aggravate existing concerns about theprovision o natural resources including water, soil and air pollution, health hazards, disaster risk, anddeorestation. Teir combined impacts may be compounded in the uture in the absence o integratedmitigation and adaptation measures [IPCCAR4 (SPM), 2007].

With this background, it comes as no surprise that the majority of projects funded by the

APN since its inception have had a climate component.

Te present synthesis report is part o the APNs larger aim to contribute, rom the science perspective,to the development o policy options or appropriate responses to climate vulnerability and impacts,including adaptation and mitigation, which in turn will contribute to sustainable development.Te timing o this publication also leads into three major activities o the Planet Under Pressure:New Knowledge owards Solutions Conerence and the Rio+20 United Nations Conerence onSustainable Development, both taking place in the rst hal o 2012, and the work o the currentIPCC th assessment with the report scheduled or release in 2014.

Te present synthesis report indicates that, while there is much activity at the global level, there is agreat need to intensiy investigative research o climate change and climate variability and trends atthe regional level, as these are still poorly understood. Consistent socio-economic data collection is

ExecutiveSummary


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V

needed, as is the need or an interdisciplinary approach to solving complex climate change problems.Te increasing requency and severity o foods, droughts and extreme temperatures requires the useo appropriate indices to improve monitoring and prediction o extreme events.

Te eects o climate on water resources have been studied in APN projects but many issues remain

unclear. Tere is a need or models to better predict the eects o seasonal to inter-annual climate onwater availability and quality. Coastal communities continue to be highly vulnerable to sea level riseand research is needed in identiying appropriate adaptation measures, strategies, and policies. Smallislands are especially vulnerable and research is required into relocation options or alternatively, whererelocation is not an option, into engineering solutions. APN has supported international workshopsto reduce vulnerability and devise coping strategies or agriculture to climate variability and change.Tese have built the knowledge-base or developing predictive capacity to manage climate variabilityand climate change-related vulnerability, strengthen overall climate responses and build resilience tosocio-economic and environmental shocks, which is one o the regions urgent development needs.

APN projects have contributed substantially to the building o regional capacity to include climate

change in national sustainable development strategies and action plans. APN workshops on trends inclimate extremes have provided a ramework or international trend analysis in developing countriesaround the world. However, what is abundantly clear is that open access to climate data, includingrelevant socioeconomic data, will be essential or countries in the Asia-Pacic region to carry out riskassessments o their vulnerability to trends in climate within a regional ramework. It is, thereore, inthe interest o all countries o the APN to promote the open exchange o climate-related data.

Te need or climate change adaptation is increasingly recognized by communities, with an initialocus on assessing vulnerabilities and identiying adaptation options. Te complexity o adaptationdue to the multidisciplinary nature o the required solutions and the lack o long-term data poses a

great challenge. Approaches at the grassroots levels (including the identication o local champions)that involve communities and local governments to incorporate climate change adaptation practicesinto development planning will be needed, and Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) will need to becustomized or local to regional and sectoral levels.

Modelling the eects o climate on agriculture and shery production needs to be rened. Critical toclimate adaptation research, practice and policy are downscaled climate data. Developing RegionalClimate Models (RCMs) in Asia has helped provide more detailed inormation on monsoon circulation;and high-resolution regional/local inormation rom RCMs can be used in impact, vulnerability andadaptation studies. Tere is a need or urther work on RCMs and statistical downscaling methods to

help localize Global Climate Model (GCM) results and to quantiy the uncertainties associated withthese results. Especially problematic in the Asia-Pacic region are Small Islands States and areas withrough and steep terrain like the Himalayas.

Te investments by APN in projects aimed at improving the Asia-Pacic regions understanding oclimate in the region, at assessing the risks to society and nature rom climate variability and change,and at raising awareness o these issues to decision-makers and the public are well justied in terms oneed and benets. Formal assessments and literature citations have demonstrated that these activitieshave been eective and o high quality.

Given the high quality o APN projects and the potential o many to yield longer-term benetsthrough the provision o marginal resources, there should be an investigation o innovative means tosustain such projects beyond the term o initial APN support.


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VI

Strategic planning o APN would benet by ensuring that it maintains close contact with relevantinternational developments on indicators o the impact o research and capacity building. Te APNshould continue to recognize the benets o applying appropriate models to assist in the integration oinormation in complex systems. Te APN recognizes that eective application o climate knowledge

to practical problems o societies across the Asia-Pacic region requires eective dialogue across thetraditional boundaries o science, technology and policy.

Te APN has a role to play in promoting research in the region that denes the strategies that leadto true sustainable development. Te Asia-Pacic region has a rich variety o cultures, and the APNhas been eective in promoting connections and alliances across all these cultures. Tis eectivenesscomes rom the recognition o cultural dierences and not imposing a monolithic approach. Tesesensitivities to culture will be especially important as the APN continues to promote exchanges oknowledge on climate-related issues across disciplines and sectors.

Clearly, the most important aspect o interactions across a region is the human actor. Te APN has

been eective in promoting innumerable networks o participants in its projects related to climate.One potential element in the uture development o sustained networks is through the engagement oearly-career researchers who can carry their scientic and social networks into the uture.

Finally, while substantial progress has been made by APN-supported projects on climate science,capacity building and policy outreach, much remains to be done in the Asia-Pacic region. Amongthe key trends impacting the region are rising population, increasing urbanization, rapid economicdevelopment, rising energy demand, massive land use and cover change, increases in temperature,heatwaves, foods and droughts, and globalization. APN may wish to invest in some o these areas inits uture strategies and research agendas.

Michael Manton and Linda Stevenson


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Chapter 1Background o APN 1

1.1. IntroductionEstablishedin1996,theAsia-PacicNetworkforGlobalChangeResearch(APN)isanetworkof

twenty-twomembergovernmentsinAsiaandthePacicwhosevisionistoenablecountriesin

the region to successfully address Global Change (GC) challenges through science-based responsestrategiesandmeasures,effectivescienceandpolicylinkages,andscienticcapacitydevelopment.

Societies ability to respond to GC depends on the resilience of human and environmental systems inthe face of these changes. Improving understanding of the interactions and feedback of physical climatesystems with human and environmental systems, improving predictions of longer-term causes andtrends, and preparing nations for future events are grand challenges. The APN, now in its third strategicphase (2010-2015), continues its mission to enable countries in the region to address these challenges.

Financially sponsored by the Governments of Japan (Ministry of Environment [MOEJ] and HyogoPrefectural Government), New Zealand (Ministry for the Environment), Republic of Korea (Ministry ofEnvironment [MEV]) and the United States (National Science Foundation [NSF]; United States GlobalChange Research Program [USGCRP]), the twenty-two full member countries of the APN are:

Backgroundof APN

1

Australia Bangladesh Bhutan Cambodia China

Fiji India Indonesia

Japan Lao PDR Malaysia Mongolia Nepal

New Zealand Pakistan Philippines

Republic of Korea Russian Federation Sri Lanka Thailand USA

Viet Nam


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Climate in Asia and the Pacic:A Synthesis o APN Activities2

The geographical distribution of current members of the APN is shown in Figure 1.WhilethePacicIsland Countries (PICs) and Singapore are not member countries, they have approved country status

allowing them to be actively involved in APN funding mechanisms and APN projects and activities.The Secretariat of the APN is hosted in Japan by the Hyogo Prefecture Government and located inKobe City.

1.2. APN Objectives

APNdenesGCasthesetofnaturalandhuman-inducedprocessesintheEarthsphysical,biological

andsocialsystemsthat,whenaggregated,aresignicantataglobalscale.InordertofosterGCresearch

in the region, APN implements three core strategies of: (i) Promoting and encouraging policy-relevantregionalGCresearch;(ii)Promotingandencouragingactivitiesthatwilldevelopscienticcapacityand

improvethelevelofawarenessonGCissuesspecictotheregion;and(iii)Identifyingandhelpingaddress, in consultation with policy-makers and other end-users, present and future needs and emergingchallenges. To this end, APN has four main goals:

Goal 1. Supporting regional cooperation in GC research on issues particularly relevant to the region

Goal 2. Strengtheningappropriateinteractionsamongscientistsandpolicy-makers,andprovidingscientic

inputtopolicydecision-makingandscienticknowledgetothepublic

Goal 3. Improvingthescienticandtechnicalcapabilitiesofnationsintheregion,includingthetransferof

know-howandtechnology

Goal 4. CooperatingwithotherGCnetworksandorganizations

Figure 1: Geographic distribution of APN member and approved countries


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Chapter 1Background o APN 3

1.3. APN Activities

The APN goals are achieved through a number of activities selected from the APNs two mainprogrammes, which involve two annual open Calls for Proposals in which scientists based in APNmember or approved countries can submit proposals for support. The two main programmes aretheAnnual Regional Call for Research Proposals (ARCP) and the ScienticCapacityDevelopmentProgramme

(CAPaBLE). Particularly encouraged to submit APN proposals are researchers working in collaborationwith the APNs four international core GC partners of the International Programme on Biodiversity(DIVERSITAS), International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), International Human DimensionsProgramme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), World Climate research Programme (WCRP)and their related core and joint projects, including the global change SysTem for Analysis, Research andTraining (START) and the Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP). The APN has also established astrong partnership with the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) following the launch of its 10-yearimplementation plan in 2005.

Research and capacity building activities under the ARCP, CAPaBLE and other related initiatives oftheAPNfocusonfourscienticthemesidentiedintheAPNsScienceAgenda.Theseare:(i)Climate

Change and Climate Variability; (ii) Ecosystems, Biodiversity and Land Use; (iii) Changes in Atmosphericand Terrestrial Domains; and (iv) Resources Utilization and Pathways for Sustainable Development.Underthesescienticthemes,theAPNsupportsactivitiesthatareinterdisciplinaryinnatureandcut

across natural, social, economic and political sciences.

Examples of the kinds of activities APN undertakes are:

Promoting and strengthening GC research, including identifying gaps via syntheses andassessment work

Identifying and developing existing methodologies and developing new methodologies and toolsforeffectivetransferofscienticknowledge

Strengthening the interface of policy- and decision-making processes and society in general for

mainstreaming environmental concern Encouraging initiatives from developing countries for place-based, integrative research Aligning with programmes of the GC community

AsAPNisaninter-governmentalnetwork,ahighprioritygoalistoproducesoundscienticresultsthat

can be made available as a supportive tool for policy-making processes. Accordingly, the APN conductsregular synthesis and assessment activities of the projects it supports in order to identify importantoutcomes, research gaps and/or emerging issues that could be used to support policy development.

1.4. APN Climate Synthesis

It is with the above background that the present Climate Synthesis activity was undertaken. Ofparticular relevance is the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (IPCCAR5) and the APN aims to ensure thatthe present report is not only relevant to the IPCC, but also published in time to be a useful resourceforthefthassessment.

The synthesis encompasses all of the APN-supported projects in which climate change and climatevariability are featured as a major theme. This allowed the authors to identify knowledge gaps and helpprioritizeresearchgoalsandprogrammesrelatingtoclimateintheAsia-Pacicregionaswellasprovide

knowledge on climate issues for the policy- and decision-making communities at local, national, sub-regional and regional levels. In essence, the Climate Synthesis activity endorsed by the APNs 14th Inter-Governmental Meeting (IGM) in March 2009 had the following objectives and intended outputs:


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Objectives

Address the relevance, achievements and present status of APN climate activities bysynthesizing APN climate-related projects conducted under the ARCP and CAPaBLEprogrammes.

Highlightsignicantproblemsofclimatechange,includingimpactsandvulnerabilities,and

identify urgent research needs and, in so doing, allow the APN to identify gaps between researchneeds and APN activities. Identify a future research direction for climate change & climate variability that is relevant to

the region. ReporttheresultstotheIGMandScienticPlanningGroup(SPG)Meetingtoreviewand

determine future APN policies and initiatives in the climate arena. Disseminatetheresultstotheglobalscienticcommunity(viainternationaljournals,websites,

relevant fora, etc.); the policy and decision-making community (via policy-briefs; a synthesissummary report and information exchange at relevant fora); and to the public (via social mediaand general publications).

Discuss the activity at relevant policy-related fora, and ensure relevance for policy processesincluding the IPCC (particularly AR5), UNFCCC/COP16 (and beyond) and UNFCCC SBSTA34(and beyond).

Products

APN Synthesis Report: ClimateinAsiaandthePacic:ASynthesisofAPNActivities (Publication: Mid-2011)

Peer Reviewed Journal Paper (Publication: End-2011) A Special Journal Edition and/or an Academic Book (Publication: Mid-2012)

The present Synthesis Report is the third APN synthesis activity. The two previous syntheses are

on Land-Use Cover Change: An Initial Synthesis (2003) and Global Change and Coastal ZoneManagement: A Synthesis Report (2004). The latter synthesis resulted in a number of citations in theIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(AR4)aswellasthepublicationofAPNsrstbookonIntegrated

Coastal Zone Management, published by Springer in 2006.

It is important to point out that the present synthesis provides a focus for climate-related researchresults,scienticcapacitydevelopmentandfuturedirectionsidentiedfromAPN-supportedprojects.

These are placed in the context of the extensive climate research that has already been conducted, or iscurrentlybeingundertaken,intheAsia-Pacicregion.


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Chapter 2Overview o APN Climate Activities 5

2.1. APN Climate Activities

Thepresentreportisasynthesisoffty-six(56)projects(Table 1; Appendix 1) funded by the APNsince 1998, all of which can be grouped into eight main sections:

(I) Food, Agriculture and Climate (16 projects)(II) Seasonal Climate Prediction and Applications (8 projects)(III) Climate Variability, Trends and Extremes (6 projects)(IV) Regional Climate Change Modelling (3 projects)(V) Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change (9 projects)(VI) Climate Change Mitigation (5 projects)(VII) Coastal Cities and Climate Change (2 projects)(VIII) Climate Change Policy and Outreach (7 projects)

It should be noted that a number of APN projects that crosscut related issues were outside the scopeof the present synthesis and have not been included. At the time of writing, the APN concluded aseparate Biodiversity Gap Analysis Scoping Workshop for the potential synthesis of projects under theAPNscienticthemeEcosystems, Biodiversity and Land Use to ensure that the APN continues to addressgaps in this and other important areas.

ThekindsofactivitiesthattheAPNhasfocusedonisreectedinitsfourgoals(refertoSection 1.2)inthatithassupportedclimateprojectsthatcovermainissuesofregionalresearch;scienticcapacity

development, including training and transferring of knowledge; as well as communications and outreachactivities at the science, policy, end-user and civil society levels. Many of the climate activities havefocused on modelling and assessments for policy- and decision-making processes and have attempted tobridge the science-policy interface by producing science that underpins policy.

The research focus of the APN is regionally based and all of its climate research activities involvecollaboration with a minimum of three countries, at least two of which are developing countries.

Overview of APNClimate Activities

2


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As the APN aims to develop and enhance thescienticcapacityofmainlydevelopingcountries1in the region, all of APNs research proposals mustinvolve developing countries as a fundamentalcriterion for APN funding. Figure 2 shows theregional distribution of the climate activities

conducted by the APN, highlighting the regional andcollaborative nature of the work undertaken.

Having the capacity to conduct high quality researchthat provides underpinningscienticsupport fordecision-makers and decision-making processesisvitalforleast-developednationsintheAsia-PacicregionandisrecognizedbytheAPNascrucial

forimprovingthescienticandtechnicalcapabilitiesofthesenations.ThisistheessenceoftheAPNs

scienticcapacitydevelopmentprogramme,CAPaBLE,andtwenty-eight(28)oftheprojectsincludedin

the present synthesis were funded under the CAPaBLE programme.

Atthetimeofwriting,APNisundertakingseven(7)projectsfocusingonscienticcapacity

development for climate change impact and vulnerability assessments. As the synthesis considers onlycompleted projects in the period 1998-2009, these activities are not included in the present report.

Figure 3 shows the outputs of the climate-related projects in terms of their major publications.Dependingonthetypeofactivityconducted,i.e.whetherscienticresearch,scienticcapacity

development or communications and outreach, publications varied from peer reviewed journal papers,monographs and academic books to technical reports, assessments and various training materials toensure the sustainability and transfer of technical knowledge, particularly for developing countries. Thepeer reviewed, special journal editions, books and monographs are cited inAppendix 3.

2.2. APN Evaluation: Significance and Impacts

APNhascompletedtwosignicantphasessinceitslaunchin1996andmanyoftheclimateactivitiesin

the present synthesis were evaluated under two strategic periods that ran from 1999-2004 (1st StrategicPhase) and 2005-2010 (2nd Strategic Phase). Of the climate projects included in the present synthesis,thirty-two (32) were reviewed in Phase 1 and twenty-four (24) in Phase 2. The evaluations highlightedsomesignicantdevelopmentsandimpacts.Bothevaluationsaddressedthesuccessoftheprojectsin

termsofrelevance,efciency,effectiveness,impactandsustainabilityagainsttheAPNgoals.APN-funded

activitieshavehadsomesignicantimpactsandaccomplishments,someofwhichareincludedhere.

1 All o APNs member and approved countries with the exception o Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Republic o

Korea, Singapore and USA are considered developing countries.

Global Activity

Oceania and the Pacic

Pan Asia

Pan Asia-Pacic

South Asia

Southeast Asia

Temperate East Asia

7%

14%

18%

23%

18%

9%

11%

Figure 2: Regional distribution of APN climate activities

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Workshop Proceedings

Training Manuals/User Guides/Resource Kits/Lectures

Project and Other Reports

Peer-Reviewed Papers/Special Editions/Books/Monographs

Conference Papers/Proceedings/Special Issues & Newsletters

Assessment/Technical Reports

28

70

102

49

11

98

Figure 3: Major publications from APN climate-related projects


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First Phase Evaluation (1999-2004)

Projects evaluated scored highly under the related goalsof supporting regional collaboration on relevant issuessuch as facilitating the standardization, collection, analysisandexchangeofrelevantscienticdataandinformation;

and cooperation with international GC networks

and organizations relevant in the region. Historically,meteorological services in the region have collaboratedin sharing observations, methods and model results,since weather forecasts depend on regional as well aslocal developments. In this perspective, scientists andtechnical experts in the region had a good basis to buildcollaborative APN projects to work on climate issues,again depending on the sharing and understanding ofregional and local data. Examples of such collaborationincluded regional climate model inter-comparisons andregional workshops to develop country-level information

on climate trends and extremes and to synthesize thisinformation at the regional level.

Many of the projects funded by the APN involved partnerships with other organizations includingtheGlobalClimateObservingSystem(GCOS),IHDP,IGBP,PacicRegionalEnvironmentProgramme

(SPREP), START, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations EnvironmentProgramme (UNEP), WCRP and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), among others.

MostoftheclimateprojectsundertherstphaseoftheAPNratedwellagainstitsgoalsof

improvingscienticandtechnicalcapacitiesintheregionandfacilitatingthedevelopmentofresearch

infrastructure and the transfer of know-how and technology. Collaboration between developing anddeveloped countries in most of the projects led to knowledge and skills transfer that was mutually

benecial.Astrongtrainingcomponentwasapparentinmanyoftheprojects.Resultsincludedtheincreased understanding, throughout the region, of the strengths and weaknesses of regional climatemodels, improved modelling and data analysis skills, and the sharing of experiences, particularly in termsof how knowledge developed through climate change and natural variability research can be used tobenetsociety.

Based on overall performance, climate projects were considered excellent in regional cooperation, datastandardization2andexchangeofscienticdata,andcooperatingwithinternationalGCnetworksandorganizations.Projectswerealsoconsideredgoodtoexcellentatimprovingscienticandtechnical

capabilities and facilitating technology transfer, particularly in modelling technology. Science-policyinteractions were generally rated poor, with some exceptions.

Second Phase Evaluation (2005-2010)

The evaluation concluded that APN-funded climate projects had very good overall success intermsofmeetingthevegoalsstatedintheAPNSecondStrategicPlan(2005-2010).Generally,the

projects received above average ratings, although ratings of the individual projects varied in terms ofeffectiveness, impact and sustainability. The few projects rated as poor were either projects awardedseed grants to further develop a proposal but failed; or projects that did not meet their originalobjectives due to poor project implementation or collaboration.

For the most part, climate issues were addressed with excellent regional collaboration. Most projectswere able to form strong regional networks of scientists. There were also genuine attempts to havepolicy- and decision-makers participate in mainstream climate-related activities; however, it was realized

2 Experts expressed the view that the APN can support this kind o work even i it does not do it itsel. A number

o targeted workshops turned data into something useul.

Evaluation Results - Gaps:

While a number o successes

were noted, urther eorts are

needed to enhance activities

that address the APN goals

o strengthening interactions

among scientists and policy-

makers, and providing

scientic input to policy- and

decision-making processes, aswell as scientic knowledge

to the public. Participants

o climate-related projects

recognized the importance

o science-policy interacing,

but noted that it is a difcult

area or which appropriate

mechanisms are oten unclear,

and or which resources are

oten limited.


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thatmoreinteractionsarestillnecessaryinthiseld.Itisimportanttopromoteamongpolicy-makers

awareness of APN climate science activities and their potential value in policy-making.

Thescienticandtechnicalexpertisewasconsiderablyincreasedthroughworkshopandhands-on

training. With some project initiatives, institutional units were formed and were able to sustain theirfunctions after APN funding ended. Some projects communicated effectively at all levels, particularly

at the grassroots level. Collaboration with other GC institutions facilitated projects to look at climateissues from a regional perspective and, at the same time, provided opportunities for scientists tocommunicate with their counterparts in the broader GC community; however, more interactions withthe GC community are needed. The transfer of knowledge and methodologies were conducted wellthrough training and workshops. Research infrastructure in the region is improving and some APNprojectswereabletohelpinestablishingspecicinfrastructure.

Many of the research projects reviewed were policy-relevant, with successful and highly rated projectsfocusingonspecicimpactsontheenvironmentandsociety.Theseprojectsidentiedrelevantproblems

andproposedwell-developedmethodologiestoachieveoutcomesbenecialtoeitherascientic

community or the public at large. The projects improved regional and national networking of scientistsinspecializedeldsofresearch,whichresultedinimprovedcollaboration.Theresearchoutcomes

resulted in better understanding of the impacts of climate change in the region and an increasedawareness of these issues by policy-makers and resource managers. All projects were designed to meettheneedsforscienticinformationrelevanttoregionalissues.

The projects all had important policy considerations but the degree of science and policy interactionneeds to be strengthened. Sustainability of project implementation (where sustainability was a projectobjective) also needs to be improved, particularly those with long-term support and not a one-timeonlyactivity.ProjectsclassiedundertheCrosscuttingandScience-PolicyLinkageshadtheweakest

ratingsasitwasdifculttoassessoutcomeswhenthecriteriafordeterminingsuccesswerenotwell

dened.Thereisanincreasingneedtoevaluateeconomicimpacts;food,waterandenergysecurity;and

nancialconsequencestofacilitatescience-policyinterfacing.Withoutadequatemetricstodeterminea

successfuloutcome,itisdifculttodetermineifascience-policylinkagehasbeenmade.

2.3. APN Evaluation: Highlights of Outstanding Projects

Nineofthefty-six(56)projectswereidentiedbytheAPNsrstandsecondstrategicphase

evaluationteams(comprisingindependentreviewers,APNScienticPlanningGroup[SPG]Members

and the APN Steering Committee) as outstanding. Summaries and highlights of these projects areoutlined here.

2.3.1. CSP01: Continuation of Regional Climate Modelling

(RCM) DevelopmentRegional climate modelling groups from throughout the regioncollaborated to compare their Regional Climate Models (RCMs)(Figure 4). This set the scene for comparing regional projectionsof future scenarios using these models, which was expected toprovide vital information for policy-makers. Some of the sciencegenerated from this project fed into the IPCC Third AssessmentReport (TAR). The evaluation of climate models from this projectprovidedthescienticknowledgefordecision-makersandother

users in their appropriate settings to apply projected climatechangeinformation,astherearesignicantuncertaintiesinsuch

projections. The project organized several workshops and anadvancedworkshoptobuildthescienticcapacitytoapplythe

climate models in developing countries. Several young scientists

Evaluation Results - Gaps:

While a web-based platorm

o RCMs had been used by

13 countries and more than

30 scientists, which allowed

them to access the RCMs; the

website is no longer running.

This is a common problem

with other project-related

websites that do not seem to

be able to maintain websiteslong-term due to lack o

unding, rapidly changing

web-based systems, in-

country regulations, lack o

institutional memory, etc.


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fromtheregionalsoworkedintheTemperateEastAsiamaincentre(STARTnodeintheAsia-Pacic

region) in using the RCMs for their research. This project was recognized as a model inter-comparisonstudy at the international level by WCRP and IGBP.

2.3.2. CSP03: Asia-Pacific Workshops on Indicators and Indices for Monitoring Trends inClimate Extremes

This was a set of data analyses workshops in which participants from individual countries brought their

own data and analyzed them for indicators and indices of trends in climate extremes. A series of paperswere published enabling the IPCC to incorporate these results which are of relevance to policy-makers and hazard managers in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Participants also brought theresults to the attention of their own national policy-makers. The WMO used the series of workshopsasamodelforotherregionsand,sincetheAPNsrstphaseevaluation(1999-2004),twoother

workshopswereconductedintheAsia-Pacicregion,oneofwhichwasconsideredoutstandinginthe

APNs evaluation of its second strategic phase (see CSP20 below).

China Korea Japan

0.51 2.29 1.37 RIEMS

-1.61 0.91 0.59 CCAM

-0.04 1.29 0.76 DARLAM

-2.93 -1.71 -3.76 SNU RCM

-1.02 -0.40 -0.44 RegCM

-3.53 -0.41 -0.89 RegCM2a

-2.31 -0.81 -0.28 RegCM2b

-4.46 -2.96 -2.77 ALT MM5/LSM

-3.09 1.23 2.43 MRI

-2.05 0.01 -0.33 ENSEMBLE

0 =6 5 4 3 2 1

China Korea Japan

RIEMS -2.59 -3.46 -3.36

CCAM -1.25 -2.35 -1.52

DARLAM 1.40 -0.68 0.90

SNU RCM 0.43 -4.03 -5.94

RegCM -3.98 -7.57 -5.06

RegCM2a -2.55 -3.96 -4.13

RegCM2b -1.11 -5.90 -7.34

ALT MM5/LSM 0.11 -3.77 -3.85

MRI 0.82 4.76 5.06

ENSEMBLE -0.96 -2.99 -2.80

Figure 4: Model-simulated seasonal averaged temperature bias (C) in 3 East Asiasub-regions for winter 1997 (left) and summer 1998 (right) [Source: Fu]

Figure 5: Hands-on data analysis in monitoring trends in climate extremes [Source: Manton]


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2.3.3. CSP09: Training Institute on Climate and Societyin the Asia-Pacific Region

The Training Institute on Climate and Society brought togetherparticipants from universities, research institutes, researchinstitutions, NGOs, government agencies, and private sectorenterprisesfromthroughouttheAsia-Pacicregion.Thetraining

institute included presentations on several of the researchprojects supported by the APN and participants shared theirexperienceonapplyingclimateinformationforthebenetof

society.Notonlydidtheprojectsignicantlyinvolvescientic

capacity development of those who attended the Institute, butalso made a substantial contribution to APNs third goal ofstrengthening interactions with scientists and policy-makers.

Perhaps one of the most important products of the Institutewas the creation of a regional network of individuals activelyengaged in the development and use of climate information

to support economic development, community planning,resource management and practical decision-making in keysectorsthroughouttheregion.TheInstitutesspecicfocuson

agriculture during the third week also provided an opportunityto expand regional awareness of and participation in theClimate Prediction and Agriculture project (CLIMAG), whichAPN considered as outstanding in its achievements during itssecond strategic phase evaluation; refer to CSP17 below.

This project also contributed to the transfer of know-howand technology by providing participants with the latestscienticinformationonthenatureandconsequencesof

climatevariabilityandchangefortheAsia-Pacicregionaswell

as access to and familiarity with the use of state-of-the-arttools, techniques and technologies for climate forecasting andassessment. Through group sharing of individual experiences,participants and resource people developed a more detailedunderstanding of how climate affects the people, communities and resources of the region and howindividual communities and governments are acting to address those challenges and opportunities.

2.3.4. CSP17: Applying Climate Information to Enhance the Resilience of Farming SystemsExposed to Climate Risk in South and Southeast Asia

APN stakeholders considered the project to have had major impact on the conduct of multi-disciplinaryresearch, highlighting the importance of simulation modelling being the glue that connects severaldisciplines, thus providing a focus on outcomes relevant to end-users. (Figure 7) The project successfullyaddressed capacity development through staff training and the development of postgraduate scholarshipopportunities. The science conducted was highly regarded and considered an excellent example ofthe value of international, inter-disciplinary research, as evident by the peer-reviewed publicationsarising from the project (Appendix 3). The project had tremendous positive impacts at the vulnerablegrassroots level within the Asian region and established a network of scientists committed to providinguseful climate information to stakeholders and end-users and building appropriate partnerships toreduce climatic risks. The commitment to having a consortium of partners to build and extend theexistingpilotstudyareasishighlybenecialtofarmingsystems.Thefactthattoolsdevelopedinthis

project are being used in decision-making in the community-level farming sector is testimony to theprojectseffectiveness,whichhassignicantlyimpactedscienticcapacitybuildingtoincorporateclimateinformation in agricultural processes.

Figure 6: Billboard highlighting an El Nio seasonand calling for water conservation [Source: Shea]

APN has continued to

demonstrate its commitment

to addressing the most

signicant scientic and

societal challenges associated

with climate variability and

change as well as the broader

eld o global change. I believe

that their experience with

early Pacic Island researchand education projects (like

the Training Institute: Project

CSP09) helped APN see the

need or/value o a targeted

capacity-building programme

like CAPaBLE and APN is to be

applauded or this insight and

leadership. I continue to be

proud to be an APN Principal

Investigator and look orward

to a long, collaborativerelationship.


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2.3.5. CSP20: Developmentand Application of ClimateExtreme Indices and Indicatorsfor Monitoring Trends in ClimateExtreme Indices and Indicatorsfor Monitoring Trends in Climate

Extremes and their Socio-Economic Impacts in South AsianCountries

The project was able to associateeminent scientists as resourcepersons in addition to excellentregional collaboration. Thepreparation of indices and indicatorson climatic extremes was preparedforthersttimeexclusivelyfor

the region of South Asia and, at the

same time, the project capturedthe essence of all APN goals. Theproject on the development ofclimate extreme indices enhancedthe capacity building of scientists indeveloping countries to the extentthat they now have the expertise todomeaningfulresearchintheeld

of climate extremes. They are nowin a position to contribute to theIPCCAR5, which would include a

Special Report on Extreme Eventsand Disasters: Managing the Risks.

Policy-makers need appropriateadaptation measures to help minimizelosses due to climate extremes.This project has generated new information on how climate extremes have changed in South Asia. Theavailability of this information to policy-makers will help them implement policy agendas in participatingcountries. The participating countries gained updated knowledge of software like RClimDexand RHTest,used them for analyzing daily meteorological data, and further developed expertise in working outtrends in core climate extreme indices.

Ratherthanstudyevent-basedclimateextremes,suchasoods,droughts,severecyclonicstorms,tornadoes, etc., the project provided a capacity building component to study climate extremes instatistical terms such as cool nights, cool days, warm nights and warm days, which offers a meaningfulpicture of climate extremes in terms of their trends in a more understandable manner for decision-makers for determining appropriate adaptation measures across South Asia.

2.3.6. CSP37: Integrated Assessment Model for Developing Countries and Analysis ofMitigation Options and Sustainable Development Opportunities

The project was organized around three themes - i) development of national scenarios with adeveloping country perspective; ii) explicit recognition of developing country dynamics in the modelling,

and iii) initiation of national modelling exercises and development of national databases in the threeparticipating countries of China, India and Thailand.

CLIMATE PREDICTION

- Dynamic Climate Models

- Statistical Methods

- Historical Analogues

Probabilistic Climate

Forecasting

SYSTEM ANALYSIS

- Biophysical Modelling- Yield Prediction

- Price Uncertainty

- Farm Economics

- Value of Climate Forecast

- Risk Management

- Relevance of Technology- Evaluating Options

- Decision/Discussion Support

Appropriate Options

IMPLEMENTATION

- Climate Communication

- Institutionalization- Institutional Capacity

- Policy Commitment

Sustained Networks

MOBILIZING SOCIETY

Perceived Need

Entry Point Activities

Building the Condence

Entry

- Social Vulnerability- Needs and Problems

- Local Organizations

- Raising Awareness

- Decision Capacity- Risk Perception

Characterisation

SOCIETAL INTERACTION

Understanding

Potential Benets

Action Planning

Climate Education

Re-Design

Experimentation

Case Studies

Local Knowledge

Joint Design Management

EXPLORE

ANALYZE

DECIDE

ACT

Figure 7: Framework showing the application of models and engagement ofmultiple stakeholders for climate forecasting in farming systems [Source: Meinke]


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The project provided an integrated modelling frameworktaking into account different aspects of climate changemitigation measures, policy changes and sustainabledevelopment. It also developed national databases ofsocio-economic data, demographic information andtechnological information as well as development scenarios

in the context of national development plans and changesinGHGmitigationpolicies.Scienticcapacitybuildingwas

achieved by focusing on solutions rather than on tools andskills.

Project outcomes were interfaced with variousinternational environmental assessments by projectteam members participating in the activities such asIPCCAR4, Global Environment Outlook 4 (GEO-4),Asia-PacicEnvironmentInnovationStrategy(APEIS),and

Development and Climate project led by UNEP RISO

Centre on Energy, Climate and Sustainable Development.Asignicantnumberandvarietyofmaterials(Figure 8)were produced from this project and papers from theproject activities were cited in the IPCCAR4.

2.3.7. CSP51: Capacity Development for Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory Development inAsia-Pacific Developing Countries

This project was considered a great success because it focused on a topic of importance to all of theAsia-Pacicregion;resultedinin situ data for the region being collected and made available; led tothe development of equipment and procedures that can be readily used in the region; involved strongdeveloped country support and developing country interest and commitment and has the impetus for

further related activities. In terms of key strengths, this project succeeded in the transfer and testingofportableeldequipmentinthedevelopingcountriesinvolved,ultimatelyleadingtothecompilation

of follow-up projects from within the developing countries. The availability of real data as opposedto international norms was one of the keys to success, as was the transfer of easy-to-use technologyfor determining CH

4and CO

2concentrations in rice paddies and the potential this creates for use in

other developing countries. The creation of a GHG inventory that has real relevance to a country asopposed to the adoption of international norms provided key traction for policy development. In all, theexpandedcapabilitiesandexperiencesofyoungscientistswillhopefullyleadtogreaterbenetsforthe

region.

2.3.8. CSP52: Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and Aerosol Emissions under Different VegetationLand Use in the Mekong River Basin Sub-region

The project aimed to develop the capacity of scientists working in the Mekong River Basin to developappropriatetechnologyinGHGsandaerosolsinventoryandtoprovidescienticallysounddecision

support information to policy-makers to improve regional air quality. The project helped to providetechnical skills and knowledge related to the estimation of GHG emissions from biogenic sources andaerosol emissions from biomass burning through onsite training in Cambodia and a hands-on-trainingworkshop in Thailand. The project involved scientists from Lao PDR, Cambodia, Myanmar and Thailand,which enhanced interaction and regional cooperation to some extent. The main outcome was thetransfer of science and technology to participating scientists. The project is a good start in terms ofregional cooperation among scientists and policy-makers involved in the preparation of UNFCCC

national communications. The project produced some excellent results regarding the extent and impactof biomass burning and standards for assessments were established. However, it is not currently clear

0

5

10

15

20

25Peer-Reviewed Papers

Technical/Research Repor ts

Workshop Proceedings

CD-ROMDissemination Workshops

Capacity-Building Workshops

Models Used/Developed

Book/chapter in a Book

Website

Database

Figure 8: Outputs of CSP37 onIntegrated Assessment Modelling[Source: APN Secretariat]


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how future applications of the products will help change policy. Cooperation among the scientists waskey to the success of this project.

2.3.9. CSP56: Water Resources in South Asia: An Assessment of Climate Change -Associated Vulnerabilities and Coping Mechanisms

Among the regions of the world, South Asia is one of themost sensitive to changes in climate. This region dependsvery heavily on the precipitation from the Asia regionalmonsoon as well as water derived from the snow andglacier melt in the Himalayas, also known as the WaterTower of Asia; both of which are affected by climate change.This three-year project focused on the following activities:i) Analyzing recent experience in climate variability andextreme hydrological events, and their impacts on regionalwater resources; ii) Assessing the impacts of projectedclimate change and variability and associated extreme

hydrological events, and socio-economic changes on thewater resources of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh; iii)Determining the vulnerability of regional water resourcesto climate change, identifying key risks to each sub-regionand prioritizing adaptation responses; iv) Evaluatingtheefcacyofvariousadaptationstrategiesorcoping

mechanisms that may reduce vulnerability of the regionalwater resources; and v) Providing input to relevant nationaland regional long-term development strategies.

The project brought together scientists from several disciplines, including meteorology, climate science,hydrology, economics and agriculture. Policy-makers demonstrated keen interest in the project because

of its importance in planning the harnessing of future water resources in light of anticipated climatechange. Use of multi-media techniques developed as a part of the project activities to disseminate theimproved technology especially to illiterate farmers was expected to prove effective. Finally, for theoodproneregions,theprojectanalyzedtheincidenceofpastoodsandtrendsforthefutureand

discussed mitigation measures in order to forewarn threatened populations about the incidence ofoodsotheycouldpreparetominimizeanydamage.

2.4. CAPaBLE Phase One Evaluation: Highlights

AnindependentevaluationthatlookedattheoutputsofCAPaBLEactivitiesconductedintherst

phase of the CAPaBLE programme, which ran from April 2003 to March 2006, provided excellentresults and ultimately led to the CAPaBLE programme becoming an integrated pillar for capacitydevelopmentwithintheAPNframework.Duringthisrstphase,eighteen(18)projectswere

completed at community, local, national and regional levels.

Key messages from the evaluation, which are highlighted in the CAPaBLE Phase I In Review ClimateChange publication (Figure 10) was the success of the CAPaBLE programme, particularly in developingthecapacityofindividualsandinstitutionsinsignicantareas:

Developed research infrastructure and transfered expertise and technology through theprovision of equipment and user knowledge, transferring and sharing of data, provision ofinformation and methodologies to researchers and institutions.

Strengthened regional collaboration for climate change research and development. Developedandenhancedscienticandtechnicalcapabilitiesofresearchers.

Figure 9: Publication from CSP56 onclimate change and water resources inSouth Asia [Source: Muhammed]


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Developed new and enhanced awareness of policy-makers and civil society on climate changeissues.

Achieved success in science-policy interactions particularly in areas where they had previouslybeen lacking.

Achieved success in development and better use of climate change tools for decision-makingprocesses.

Provided unique and timely outputs that can be incorporated into future work on climatechange.

Four of the eighteen projects were rated excellent CSP26, CSP34, CSP36 and CSP37 (details ofCSP37 are outlined in Section 2.3.5). Brief highlights of the other three projects are provided in thefollowing sections.

2.4.1. CSP26: Training Institute on Climate and Extreme Events in the Pacific

TheClimateandExtremeEventsTrainingInstitutewasheldinthePacicinFiji(2004),Samoa(2005),

and Kiribati (2006). The institute addressed the need to create a regional network of scientists, decision-makers and institutions skilled in the use of climate information and services to support practicaldecision-making in key sectors such as agriculture, water resource management, public health and safety,tourismandcommunityplanning,andresourcedevelopmentwithinthePacicIslandCountriesregion.

Key impacts:

(1) The 70 participants trained are able to contribute to: National local awareness building and climate planning and adaptation activities as part ofNational Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

RegionalclimateprojectssuchasPacicAdaptationtoClimateChange(PACC) General sustainable development initiatives

(2) There is anecdotal evidence that trained personnel are using their skills in professional activitiesfor mainstreaming climate to support policy formulation.

2.4.2. CSP34: APN Scoping Workshops on Global Earth Observation System of Systems(GEOSS) & the Capacity Building Needs of the Region: Focus Climate

The aim of the scoping workshops was to identify capacity building needs for research in global earthobservations and climate change and its impacts; identify the role of the APN in such research; andunderpin systematic observations and create road maps for designing ideas appropriate for capacity

Figure 10: CAPaBLE Phase 1 In Review Climate Change [Source: APN Secretariat]


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building activities. Key impacts were determinedforthosevulnerablesectorsidentiedasfood

andbre;biodiversity;waterresources;coastal

ecosystems; human health and settlements; andland degradation.

Key impacts:

(1) TheworkshopsidentiedthemainconstraintsintheAsia-Pacicregion,

particularly for developing countries,which included:

Lack of observational data(meteorological, oceanographic,socio-economic, etc.);

Inaccessibility to existing data; Scarcity of experienced scientists

andlackofadequatescientic

infrastructure; and Lack of familiarity with relevant

methods and models.

(2) Theworkshopsidentiedtheoverarchingcapacityneedsofdevelopingcountries: Continuous training and capacity development to advance efforts towards comprehensive

and sustained understanding of the Earths processes; Research on climate modelling and socio-economic impacts and adaptation;

Collection, rescue and analysis of historical data; and Linking earth observations and climate modelling.

2.4.3. CSP36: Enhancement of National Capacities in the Application of Simulation Modelsfor the Assessment of Climate Change and its Impacts on Water Resources and Food &Agricultural Production

This3-yearprojectconductedunderpinningscienticresearchonregionalclimatechangemodellinginmanifestationsoftemperature&precipitationchanges,monsoonvariability,oods,droughtsandother

extreme events; water and food security and melting of glaciers in three countries of Bangladesh, Nepaland Pakistan. In addition, extensive capacity building training workshops were conducted using variousRCMs, Watershed Simulation Models and Crop Simulation Models.

The enhanced capacity was effectively utilized to varying extents to pursue envisaged research on:

Implementation, validation and calibration of a variety of RCMs, WSMs and CSMs; Developmentofcoarseandneresolutionclimatechangescenarios; Assessmentoftheimpactsofexpectedclimatechangeonannualandseasonalowsofmain

rivers and on the yields of major crops in different agro-climatic zones; and Identicationandevaluationofappropriateadaptationmeasuresandcopingmechanismsto

counter the negative impacts of climate change.

The project outcomes were much appreciated by the heads of the Planning Commissions in Nepal andPakistan, who emphasized that this type of research is highly relevant to the countries of South Asiawhose water and food security are at great risk due to global climate change. Furthermore, there werenotable changes in government and bureaucracy attitudes towards climate change issues. The project

team have stipulated that governments are now much more attune to issues of climate change and areseeking further information as to its impacts and clarifying their vulnerabilities.

Figure 11: Participants of the GEO ScopingWorkshops [Source: APN Secretariat]


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3.1. Food, Agriculture and Climate

3.1.1. Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability

3.1.1.1Issuesandsignicance

Farmers and farming communities throughout theworld have survived and developed in most cases bymastering the ability to adapt to widely varying weatherand climatic conditions. However, the dramatic growthin human population is imposing enormous pressure onexisting farming production systems. In addition, farmersareexpectedtomanagetheevermoredifculteffects

of long-term climate change that may now be occurringat an unprecedented rate. Increased productivity can beassociated with increased economic and environmentalrisk as farming systems become more vulnerable toweather and climate. More targeted climate information

can increase preparedness and lead to better economic,social and environmental outcomes for farmers.

3.1.1.2 Scope of the activities

Important issues for APN support were activities thatused climate information to improve food production.Inthisregard,therststageofthepresentsynthesisof

activities under Food, Agriculture and Climate was toperform a stock take of the tools involved, includingimplementing crop/climate models to enhance theoperational use of seasonal climate prediction in target

APN countries. Issues also included the effectivecommunication of these climate prediction toolsfor farmers and farming communities by climate andagricultural experts.

APN supported activities that established a network ofteams with the capacity to apply agricultural systemsanalysis to evaluate options for managing climatic risk.Projectsbuildingfromthisdocumentedthebenets

delivered from mainstreaming climate informationto agricultural decision-making, with the building of a

large-scale system of support for the operational use ofseasonal climate information for target countries India,Pakistan and Indonesia. Project CSP17 produced twelve(12) peer reviewed publications (Appendix 3), the mostnotable one entitled, Actionable climate knowledge from analysis to synthesis. This also included thedevelopment of environmentally friendly strategies foragricultural pest management, with papers published inthe book Weather and climate risks in agriculturefrom CSP24. Further workshops used this research topromote the use of climate prediction tools for farmersand farming communities.

TheSynthesis

3

Dramatic growth in humanpopulation is imposingpressure on armingproduction systems.


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Chapter 3The Synthesis 17

An international workshop on Content, Communication and Useof Weather and Climate Products and Services for SustainableAgriculture (CSP55) was held, which evaluated climate productsthat can be used by farmers and farming communities. Thisworkshop placed special emphasis on the communication ofproducts to farmers and the development of new products to

enhance interaction between climate services, farmers and farmingcommunities. The workshop developed new methods, includinginterfacing climate tools via web-based technologies to farmingcommunities, which were trialled in the Cook Islands at www.climatecookislands.com.

3.1.1.3 Outcomes

Results

For agricultural management decisions, seasonal climate information and prediction offer a meansfor farmers to manage increasing climate variability. Currently, the skill of dynamical seasonal climateforecasting is improving. Reasonable seasonal predictions are now available from statistical and dynamicdownscaling of GCMs over South Asia. Prediction skill is greatest when El Nio and La Nia eventsare occurring. Near-global analysis has demonstrated that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), alarge-scale, tropical atmospheric anomaly that originates in the Indian Ocean and moves eastwardsatintervalsof3060days,isasignicantphenomenonthatinuencesdailyrainfallpatternsevenat

higherlatitudes.ThisalsoinuencestheonsetandbreakdownoftheAsian-Australianmonsoonsystem

and is very useful in these longitudes. The ability to combine MJO forecasts improves tactical climaterisk management. Work remains on improving dynamical forecasting of the Indian summer monsoonalthough good progress is being made.

GCM outputs are too coarse in resolution for applicationto crop decision-making and therefore must be

downscaledforuseattheelddecision-makinglevel.Downscaling can be achieved by statistical or dynamicalmodelling. These techniques are being used in India,Pakistan and Indonesia to provide improved climatepredictions and hence a better understanding of climateimpacts.

Field experiments and data analyses have establishedimportant functional relationships for disease risk and climate for late leaf spot in peanut, Sclerotiniarot and Alternaria blight in canola and mustard. This has enabled the validation of the Cropgro andInfocrop climate and disease models for these crops in Bangladesh and Cambodia.

By using systems analysis and modelling, the best response to climate forecasts can be uncovered. Thishas been achieved for Tamil Nadu in India for groundnut, horsegram, sorghum and cotton; for pigeonpeaand groundnut in the Pavagada region of India; drought costing in Bandung, Indonesia; on farm trials andwheat simulation in Pakistan; and whole farm optimization for Tamil Nadu. Examination of the value ofclimate forecasts in Tamil Nadu showed that the value of forecasts in smallholder systems depends onthe prediction skill, Southern Oscillation Index phase, and types of decisions and their responsiveness toclimate forecasts. Though the forecast skill for the summer monsoon is moderate, the value is greaterfor groundnut and cotton management. The winter monsoon rainfall forecasts are more skilful but havelow value for sorghum management. The economic value of a forecast was found to be very sensitiveto the response action; for example, modifying the groundnut planted could be ten times more valuablethan modifying the amount of fertilizer applied to groundnuts.

From these approaches, it is necessary to establish a network of research teams for capacity buildingin the application of agricultural systems analysis to evaluate options for managing climate risk. This

An APN workshopdeveloped newmethods tocommunicate climate

inormation romclimate and agriculturalexperts to armers inthe Pacic Islands.

APN built an international multi-disciplinary network o scientistsproviding actionable climateknowledge to arming groups inparts o South and Southeast Asia.
http://www.climatecookislands.com/http://www.climatecookislands.com/http://www.climatecookislands.com/http://www.climatecookislands.com/


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has been established for Pakistan, India and Indonesia. Crop simulation modelling has been found tobe essential as the bond that connects several disciplines providing a focus on outcomes and productsuseful to farmers and farming communities.

By these and other means, a multi-national network of scientists

working in different disciplines, hasbeen established for the creationof useful climate knowledge bybuilding partnerships with farmersand farming communities. Thisprocess is depicted in Figure 12.

Considerable advances have beenmade in the past decade in thedevelopment of the collectiveunderstanding of climate variabilityand its prediction in relation

to the agricultural sector andscienticcapacityinthiseld.

More sophisticated and effectiveclimate prediction procedures arenowemergingrapidlyandnding

increasingly greater use. By usingcrop simulation models in a decision systems framework, alternative decisions are being generated, butthereisaclearneedtofurtherreneandpromotetheadoptionofcurrentclimatepredictiontools.

Equally, it is important to identify impediments to the further use and adoption of current predictionproducts.

Acomprehensiveprolingoftheusercommunityincollaborationwithsocialscientistsandregulardialogue with users will assist in identifying opportunities for agricultural applications. Activecollaboration between climate forecasters, agrometeorologists, agricultural research, and extensionagencies in developing appropriate products for farming communities is essential.

Communication of climate information is an essential part of the process. Despite advances made inimproving climate forecasts, the application of these products at the farm level has not been up to themark because of the lack of effective contact between climate information and farming communities.

Capacity Building

The activities funded by the APN have created an international, multi-disciplinary network of scientistswho support the mainstreaming of climate information to farmers in India, Pakistan and Indonesia.The work has improved the understanding of climate variability impacts and related vulnerabilities onfarming communities. It has also provided a consortium of partners for extension and further pilotstudies. Crop/climate and crop/disease models have been developed and enhanced.

Assessments have been made and published on the applications of seasonal to inter-annual climatevariability to agricultural production. Capacity building has also occurred among scientists fromdeveloping and developed countries. Improvement in communication between climate and agriculturalexperts and a farming community occurred on a small island state.

3.1.1.4 Conclusions

Therstdecadeof2000hasshowngreatimprovementintheskillandresolutionofseasonalto

inter-annual climate forecasts. In addition, there has been improvement in communicating climateinformation to farmers and farming communities. Farmers collectively have some knowledge of climate,

SOCIAL

SCIENCE

SYSTEMS

SCIENCE

CLIMATE

SCIENCE

Policy Economics

Dynamic

climate

modelling

Resource

Manager

Systems

analysis

Seasonal

climate

forecasts

Insight into

socio-economicFEASIBILITY

Insight into

technicalPOSSIBILITY

Insight into

climaticPROCESSES

Figure 12: Disciplines, relationships and linkages for effective delivery ofclimate information for decision-making. Operational links are indicatedby the solid arrows; dashed arrows indicate where an operationalconnection is still weak or does not exist [Source: Meinke]


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water and crop management. Assistance for farmingcommunities, business and policy-makers to bettercope with climate-related risks is improved bysynthesizing information across disciplines to includeend-users in the process. This includes control ofclimate-sensitive crop diseases. Climate information

is valuable to farmers because agriculture is veryclimate sensitive. However, there needs to begreater interaction between the farming communityand the national meteorological services in thecommunication of this information.

3.1.1.5 Recommendations

Seasonal to inter-annual forecasts are critical to agricultural risk management. Further workis needed to improve the skill of forecasts and associated downscaling, so that better riskmanagement decision-making can occur at the whole farm level.

Identicationofcriticalareaswhereagriculturalproductionissensitiveandvulnerableto

climate requires close monitoring of climate. Targeted climate synthesis and integration into applied risk management are required at thefarm level. This requires new institutional arrangements and multidisciplinary partnershipsespecially between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), ministries ofagriculture and the whole farm level.

Theincreasingfrequencyandseverityofoods,droughtsandextremetemperaturesrequiresuse of appropriate indices to improve monitoring and prediction of these extreme events.

Formation of farmer groups and associations are needed to improve the dissemination ofcollective knowledge of farming communities on climate and crop management.

Mainstreaming climate information to farmers is required from experts in meteorologicalservices and agricultural ministries through improved communication via various media. This

requires close collaboration with media organizations.3.1.2. Long-term change

3.1.2.1Issuesandsignicance

Climate scenarios during the 21stcenturyfortheAsia-Pacicregionindicateadryingofthesubtropics,a more vigorous monsoon season, but with increases in extreme events such as high intensity rainfall,droughtandheatwaves.Duringthepastfourdecades,climateextremessuchasdroughts,oods,

storms,tropicalcyclones,heatwavesandwildlandresandwindstormshavecausedmajorlossesinthe

agricultural sector. Communities that are most exposed to these risks are those with limited accessto technological resources and with limited development of infrastructure. One of the most importantstrategies is the improved use of climate knowledge and climate risk technologies. Both structural and

non-structural measures can be used to reduce the impacts of the variability (including extremes) ofclimate resources on crop production. Planning, early warning and well-prepared response strategies arethe major tools for mitigating losses due to climate change. Hence, climate variability and climate changeare considered in evaluating all environmental risk factors and coping decisions.

Currently, many opportunities exist that can assist in coping effectively with agrometeorological risksand uncertainties to long-term change. One of the most important strategies is the improved useof climate knowledge and technology, which includes the development of monitoring and responsemechanisms to current climate. By providing new, quantitative information about the environmentwithin which farmers operate or about the likely outcome of alternative or relief management options,uncertaintiesincropproductivitycanbereduced.Quanticationisessentialandcomputersimulations

can assist such information and may be particularly useful to quantitatively compare alternativemanagement and relief options in areas where seasonal climatic variability is high and/or prone to

Changes in the requency o climateextremes because o climate change

will signicantly impact agriculturalproduction in those communities

with the least resources andinrastructure to cope.


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extremes. One of the most important strategies to cope with risks for long-term change for agricultureandsheriesincludesthedevelopmentofclimateknowledgeandtechnologyforfutureclimatechange.

3.1.2.2 Scope of the activities

Forsheries,APNheldtwoworkshops:oneto

examine the consequences of climate-inducedchangesonpelagicsheriesinEastAsiaandthe other to model the annual to inter-decadalvariability of sardine and anchovy populations.

ForriceandwheatproductioninSouthAsia,eld

visits by researchers to villages in the Indo-GangeticPlain (IGP) have improved their understanding of climate change and water issues. APN also held aworkshop of experts on rice pests, which established a regional network of scientists throughout SouthAsia for projecting pest damage impacts of climate change.

APN supported two major activities on climate change and its effects on water resources and foodproduction in South Asia. CSP36 organized four regional capacity-building workshops for the trainingand application of RCMs with crop simulation models then two workshops to consider the modeloutput for climate change. This was followed by research on the assessment of various climate trendsinBangladesh,NepalandPakistanoverthepastvedecades;projectionsofclimateintheseareasto

2100 at high resolution; assessment of 21st century climate trends on yields of wheat, rice and maize inthethreecountries;aswellasevaluatingtheimpactsofclimatechangeonannualandseasonalowsof

three main rivers. The monograph Climate change: global and OIC perspective and many otherpublications were produced from this project (Appendix 3).

The work was preceded with the assessment of adaptation and coping mechanisms to cope withnegative impacts of climate change on agriculture and water resources (CSP56). The regional activities,which included India, prepared regional maps of climate change risk to water and agricultural resources.

These results were presented to end-users so that vulnerabilities and coping mechanisms could beassessed. A major publication Climate and water resources in South Asia was prepared fromthese activities.

Two international workshops were held on reducing thevulnerability of agriculture and forestry to climate variabilityand change, and devising coping strategies. These reviewed thelatest assessments of climate variability and change and likelyimpacts, and considered a range of adaptation options. The secondworkshopbuiltontherstbyconsideringcopingstrategiesof

which crop risk insurance was one main option. These workshopsprovided capacity building for scientists from developing countrieswith scientists from developed countries. From CSP13 the bookIncreasing climate variability and change: Reducing thevulnerability of agriculture and forestry was published.

One method of promoting climate change adaptation is to mainstream it in national sustainabledevelopment policies and programmes. This is founded on the notion that climate adaptation andsustainable development share common goals and determinants. APN supported a study in thePhilippines, Indonesia and Viet Nam to assess how climate adaptation can be integrated into nationalplans and programmes especially in agriculture and water resource management.

APN supportedinternational workshopsto reduce vulnerability anddevise coping strategies oragricultural impacts due

to climate variability andchange.

APN produced the rst majorassessment o climate change andits impacts on water resources andagricultural production or South Asia.


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3.1.2.3 Outcomes

Fisheries

Smallpelagicsheriessuchassardine,anchovy,herringandmackerelconstitutealargeportionofthe

sheriescatchoffthecoastsofEastAsia.Zooplanktonbiomassfortheperiod19651998increased

afterthelate1980scorrespondingtoawarmregimeofoceanclimate.Duringthe1990sshcatches

intheChinesepelagicsheriesincreasedreachingthehighestproductionin1998,whilemanystocksshowedlowrecruitmentoffSouthwestJapan.Theproportionofsmallpelagicshincreasedoff

southern Korea during the 1980s. The multidecadal changes in stocks such as anchovy and mackerelinthePacicshoweda5565yearvariabilityrelatingtoclimateindicessuchasthePacicDecadal

Oscillation (PDO). Further work on anchovy and sardine catch off California, Japan, Chile-Peru and inthe Benguela region shows multidecadal variations with large changes in the mid-1940s and the mid-1970s when PDO phase changes occurred.

Agriculture and water resources

Rice and wheat production in the IGP is very important for food security in South Asia. Cropmodels, which are geo-referenced, are required to investigate management strategies to cope with

climate change. An assessment of water resources and climate change in South Asia showed that airtemperatures increased in all countries in the latter half of the 20th century. Pre-monsoon rainfallincreased in northern Bangladesh, with increases also apparent in the southwest, and decreases in thesoutheast. No trends were observed in Nepal, but in Pakistan, rainfall was more extreme for both wetand dry anomalies. There were no changes in the All-India rainfall statistics. The Indus River simulationsshoweddecliningows(Figure 13) but for the Ganges and Brahmaputra no trends were detected inrunoff.TheeasternpartsofSouthAsia,especiallyBangladesh,NepalandpartsofIndiaareood-prone.

RecentanalysissuggeststhatthefrequencyofdevastatingoodsinBangladeshisontheincrease,with

four of the most severe occurring in the past 30 years. In northeast India, where the Brahmaputradrains,therehasbeensignicanterosionwithproblemsowingtooverbankspillage,drainagecongestion,

bank erosion and landslides. In the western region of India and adjacent Pakistan, rainfall is very erratic

leading to extremely arid conditions interspersed with >90% of the annual mean rainfall in a singlemonthcausingdevastatingshort-durationoods.FortheIndusriversystembecauseofextensive

deforestationintheHimalayas,thishasledtomajoroodsinPakistanwithsevenofthetenworst

oodsinthelast100yearsoccurringinthelast25years.Theseoodswerecausedbyunprecedented

meltingofsnowonglaciersduetoanincreaseintemperatures.Fiveglaciallakeoutburstoods

(GLOFs) occurred in Nepal over the period 19771998. Devastating droughts are common in Pakistanand northwestern India. The most severe drought occurred in Pakistan from 19982002, where surfacewater availability was reduced by 30%. In India, about one third of the country is drought prone. Thereare approximately 20 droughts per century.

Figure 13: Simulated meanmonthly flows of the Indus River

under the baseline (1995-2004)conditions and under the influenceof a hypothetical climate changescenario (CCS) [Source: Khan]


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TheimpactsofoodsanddroughtsaredramaticonagricultureinSouthAsia.FloodsinSouthAsia

haveresultedincroplosseswiththe1974BangladeshoodseverelydamagingtheAmancrop,andthe

1993Nepaloodreducingagriculturalproductionby12%.The20002001droughtintheSindhand

Balochistam provinces of Pakistan reduced overall agricultural production by 3%. Nine droughts in thepre-monsoon season in Bangladesh have occurred since 1951 affecting about half the country.

For water resources, the melting of mountain glaciers in the Himalayas is having several effects. Morewater will be supplied to glacier dependent perennial rivers. But this is likely to increase the chancesof GLOFs; Nepal has 2315 glacial lakes and 26 are considered dangerous. On longer timescales, dryseasonowintheupstreamreacheswillbegreatlyreduced.NorthPakistanagricultureisbecoming

increasingly dependent on ground water irrigation. Prolonged drought and high temperatures between1990and2000signicantlyreducedrechargetotheaquifer.

GCM-based coarse resolution climate scenarios show that increases in temperature on an annual aswell as seasonal basis are comparable for Nepal and Pakistan, but lower for Bangladesh, and higher inwinter than in summer (Table 2). There are clear indications of precipitation increases in summer, butdecreases in winter. The impacts of these on agriculture and water resources have been investigatedusing crop/climate and watershed models. CERES-Wheat model simulations for Pakistan show that the

growing season length decreases throughout the country with increases in mean temperature.

Yield increases in Pakistan until about 4C above the baseline then decreases. This reveals that yieldswill decrease in the order of 5% for IPCC-SRES A2 and B2 scenarios by the 2080s. Similar results forPakistan occur using the CERES-Rice model, which reveals rice crop yields will decrease by 15 to 18%by the 2080s.

For Nepal, model-based studies show that a 4C increase in mean temperature has positive impactson all crops, except maize, where a 2C increase results in decreases in yield in the mountain zone.Unfortunately, the impacts on water resources of climate model output could not be assessedbecause the watershed models could not be satisfactorily validated or had very demanding data inputrequirements, which were not available.

Perceptions of risk were carried out in Pakistan, India and Nepal. In Pakistan respondents observed thatthe intensity of drought had increased compared with the past, and in India the drier areas anticipate

Precipitation Change (%), A2 Scenario

Pakistan Nepal Bangladesh

2020s

Annual 2.79 2.94 -3.60 3.08 -1.02 1.09

Summer 5.31 4.13 -0.76 4.07 -0.31 1.15

Winter -16.2 2.84 -11.74 2.69 -11.32 4.17

2050s

Annual 5.53 4.63 1.81 4.76 2.72 1.79

Summer 12.55 7.13 5.88 6.67 3.09 1.63

Winter -1.62 3.56 -10.93 3.63 -9.58 8.05

2080s

Annual 3.48 5.78 6.22 6.56 8.39 2.15

Summer 12.16 8.91 14.98 9.74 10.02 1.48

Winter -5.12 4.78 -17.58 2.53 -11.55 6.46

Table 2: Projected changes in annual and seasonal prediction (%) in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s over

Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh for A2 Scenario, based on 13-GCM Ensemble [Source: Khan]


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drought where recovery usually takes 2 to 3 years. Drought causes hardship leading to migration. ForNepal,rainfallextremeswereperceivedasthemaincauseofoods.The1993eventwasthelargest

since1954.TheriseinriverowsinBangladeshwasperceivedasthemajorcauseofoods,withthe

intensity and duration on the rise. Current coping strategies for drought in India and Pakistan includeborrowing money, migration for alternative livelihoods and destocking. Flood coping strategies includemigration, stock protection and crop insurance.

Reducing vulnerability

Changes in temperature have reduced the number of frost days and increased the length of thegrowing season. Land cover changes and other changes have led to changes in rainfall patterns andextremes. However, it should also be mentioned that the role of land-use change in modifying rainfallis often over-stated. These all increase the risk to long-term change. As well as seasonal to inter-annualforecasting, the development of multi-year climate forecasting will be an important tool. Old (radio)and new (internet and SMS) communication strategies when adapted to local applications assist thedissemination of useful information to farming communities. However, developed countries have thetechnology to adapt more readily. In many developing countries, agriculture is marginal and the abilitytoadaptinthetropicsandsubtropicsandcountriesintransitionwillbedifcult.Traditionalknowledge,

indigenous technologies and local innovations can also be used to improve farming systems.

Coping strategies include the use of seasonal climate forecasts to assist in alleviation of food shortagesandtocopewithdroughtanddesertication;andtheuseofintegratedagriculturalmanagement

systems incorporating climate-forecasting systems together with crop simulation models. Improvementscanbemadeinwater-useefcienciesthroughsurfaceirrigation,reductioninexcessivegroundwater

utilizationandincreasedefciencyintherainfedareas,andcropdiversication.Localindigenous

knowledge provides coping mechanisms for change, as well as improved cultural and farming practicesandcropdiversication.Cropinsurancespreadstheriskforadverseperiodsofclimate.

3.1.2.4 Linking climate change adaptation to sustainable development

APN-supported research has shown that current national plans andprogrammesdonotadequatelyreectaconcernforclimateadaptation.There is, however, strong perception that climate adaptation should bemainstreamed into national plans and programmes including agricultureand water resources. Options for doing this have been demonstratedin the Philippines, Indonesia and Viet Nam. For example, the criticalrole of Local Government Units (LGUs) in promoting climate changeadaptation at the ground level in the Philippines has been shown.Neglecting climate risks could also imperil attainm

Documents

Climate in Asia and the Pacific