Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

Developments for Climate Services at Japan Meteorological Agency

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Climate Information Provision from the Climate Prediction Division, JMA

Forecast Unit

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Regional Climate Center(RCC) in Regional Climate Center(RCC) in RAII (Asian Region)RAII (Asian Region) 　　

Global Climate Monitoring Unit

Global Warming Unit

Climate System Monitoring Unit

El Niño Unit

Numerical Climate Prediction and Re-analysis Unit

Climate Prediction DivisionClimate Prediction DivisionJMAJMA

Domestic Users

National Meteorological (Climatological)Services in Asia

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Climate Services at JMA

Advisory Panel on Extreme Events

Early Warning Information on Extreme Weather

• 1996.03 Dynanucal Monthly Forecasts (once a week), GSM9603 (T63L30M10)

• 2003.03 　 Dynamical 3-month ForecastsGSM0103 (T63L40M31)

• 2003.09 Dynamical warm/cold season forecasts. GSM0103 (T63L40M31)

• 2008.03 Early Warning for Extreme Weather 　　 (2-week forecast)• 2010.02 　 Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model

for seasonal forecast

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History of JMA Long-Range Forecasts

• 1996.07 Ocean Data Assimilation System

• 1999.08 ENSO outlook Atmosphere-ocean coupled model

• JMA-CGCM02• 2008.03 JMA/MRI-CGCM

AGCM: TL95L40OGCM: MRI.COM 0.3°-1°×1°Ocean Data Assimilation: MOVE-MRI.COM　

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Summary of Monthly to Seasonal Prediction of JMA1　month　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 3　months　　　　　 7　months　　

Early warning Information onExtreme events

1-month　forecast

3-month　forecast

warm/cold　

season　forecast

ENSOoutlook

operatedmodelsAGCM

TL159L6050 member

CGCMJMA/MRI-CGCM

AGCM: TL95L40OGCM:

0.3 -1 deg x 1 deg

51 member

2 weeks

week 1

Week 2

Week 3&4

1 month (4 weeks)

month-2month-1 month-33 months

3 months(summer/winter)

ENSO, Indian Ocean SST

The seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model in Feb. 2010. The seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with an atmosphere-ocean coupled model in Feb. 2010.

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New JMA Seasonal Forecast System

coupler(w/ flux adjustment)

Climate Data Assimilation（ JRA-25/JCDAS ）

Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model (JMA/MRI-CGCM)

JMA GSM（ TL95L40: ~180km ）

Ocean model (MRI.COM )

1.0°×(0.3°-1.0°), 51 levels

Ocean Data Assimilation System

（ MOVE/MRI.COM-G ）

Atmospheric perturbationsTrop.&Ext. trop bred vector

Atmospheric I. C.

Oceanic I. C.Atmospheric BGM + Lagged

Averaging Forecast

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division

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Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate Events

Research C

omm

unity

Scientific comments on climate monitoring, suggestion on improvement of analysis

Extraordinary　meeting　　　　

Analysis of the event 　　　

Annual　meeting

Review of Panel activities, extreme climate events in the year 　

J M A

Timely statement on causes of the extreme climate event

Regular provision of related information

Observational data, analysis tools, operational monitoring information 　 on climate system

Analysis tools of extreme climate events

Extreme event!!

Sharing data, tools, and

information on current status of climate system

　

Schematic figure of the framework

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division8

Thank you for your attention.

• The JMA seasonal forecast system and ENSO prediction system were integrated with a coupled forecast system. (Feb. 2010)• CGCM: JMA/MRI-CGCM,

Ocean Data Assimilation system: MOVE/MRI.COM-G

• CO2 concentration is considered in hindcasts/real-time forecast (extrapolation with linear trend.)

• New calibration technique with a model output statistics (MOS) has been implemented to the seasonal forecast system. (Feb. 2010)

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division9

Revisions of Forecast Systems

• Comprehensive verification of the new coupled seasonal forecast system.• Improvement of the forecast skill has been

confirmed with the new coupled model.

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division10

Research Activities

Old system (AGCM) New system (CGCM)

Anomaly correlation scores of 850-hPa stream function for (a, c) the old system with AGCM and (b, d) the new system with CGCM.

(a) JJA forecast from Feb. (b) JJA forecast from Feb.

(c) DJF forecast from Sep. (d) DJF forecast from Sep.

• Implementation of a satellite simulator (COSP) for model diagnostics/verifications.

• A study of an agricultural application of monthly forecasts is planned in collaboration with Tohoku Univ. and the National Agricultural Research Center for Tohoku Region.

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division11

Ongoing/planned Research Activities

• A hindcast for the next version of the monthly forecast system. (A new model is planned to be introduced in Feb. 2011.)• Reduced gaussian grid• New aerosol climatology• Modification in a land surface model to improve soil moisture

representation.• Investigation of impacts of a sea-ice boundary condition for monthly

forecasts (AGCM) and sea-ice model coupling (CGCM)• Development of the prototype of the next coupled model • Off-line verification of land surface models • Development of a two-stream approximation method to decrease

computational cost, to consider the cloud scattering effect in the long wave radiation.

Japan Meteorological Agency, Climate Prediction Division12

Ongoing/planned Developments