Climate Response with DendroClim 2002Climate Response with DendroClim 2002

DendroClim 2002• Performs classic climate response analyses, moving and evolutionary

correlation and response function analyses for temporal stability tests, calculates bootstrapped confidence intervals.

• Developed by Dr. Franco Biondi of the Tree-Ring Laboratory at the University of Nevada-Reno, with assistance from Scotty Strachan and Kishor Waikul.

• Biondi, F. and K. Waikul. DENDROCLIM2002: A C++ program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring chronologies. Computers & Geosciences 30: 303-311.

• Program has become the standard for testingthe temporal stability of the climate responsein trees before conducting further analyses,such as reconstructing climate.

• Available for free download from Dr. Biondiafter notifying him by email.

• The data used include:

• (1) a tree-ring chronology, which must be in 2-column format (year and index) –you can obtain this format using program FMT to convert Index format to any other format.

• (2) climate data, which must be in standard “met” data format, i.e. 12 columns of monthly climate data, each row preceded by the year.

• Note: the program will ask for the standard temperature and precipitation data files, does it really does not care about the type of data.

• For example, each column could instead contain seasonal precipitation data, PDSI/PHDI data, PRISM data, even streamflow data. It doesn’t matter.

• It also does not care about the tree-ring chronology type. You should test all three chronology types, however, to ensure you choose the one that has the maximum amount of climate signal.

• The graphical output is its strongest contribution! Note also that tables are created and the output from these can easily be imported into Excel.

DendroClim 2002

• To demonstrate DendroClim 2002, I’m going to use tree-ring data from bristlecone pine trees growing at the famous Methuselah Walk site that we developed as part of the 2010 North American Dendroecological Fieldweek, with the cores courtesy of Dr. Linah Ababneh.

• The samples have already been crossdated graphically and statistically using COFECHA. The data set extends from 1895 to 2001.

• The climate data tested must be inclusive!

• NOAA Divisional Climate Data

• Temperature, Precipitation, SPI, PDSI, PHDI

• PRISM Climate Data (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/)

• Local Station Data (Bishop CA, Independence CA, Mina NV)

• Precipitation, Maximum Temperature, Mean Temperature

• Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index (Nina3.4)

• Streamflow Data (Big Pine Creek, CA)

DendroClim 2002

1895 1.18 -0.26 -0.18 0.19 0.58 0.84 0.26 -0.45 0.31 -1.12 -0.29 -0.02 1896 1.23 -1.15 0.57 1.48 1.29 -0.73 0.66 0.75 0.06 0.41 0.84 0.02 1897 -1.38 0.71 0.79 -0.75 -0.52 0.21 -0.57 -0.29 -0.83 0.89 -0.20 -0.08 1898 -2.01 -0.32 -2.11 -1.39 1.27 -0.78 -1.50 -0.39 0.13 -0.50 -0.53 -1.60 1899 0.33 -1.43 1.38 -0.60 0.27 0.24 -1.50 0.90 -0.89 1.87 0.92 0.23 1900 -0.18 -1.22 -0.26 -0.01 0.74 -0.25 0.15 -0.29 -0.04 1.23 1.39 -0.99 1901 0.75 0.63 -1.19 0.65 0.29 -1.03 -0.82 1.55 0.58 0.56 0.36 -0.69 1902 -1.13 1.19 0.55 0.53 0.00 -1.00 0.50 -0.29 -0.46 0.74 0.83 0.03 1903 1.04 -1.12 0.96 -0.08 -0.62 -0.78 -1.26 -0.50 -0.83 -0.65 1.43 -1.95 1904 -0.57 1.29 1.90 0.73 -0.58 -1.13 0.32 1.19 1.38 1.49 -0.40 -0.01 1905 -0.59 -0.62 -0.07 -2.56 1.33 -1.20 -0.89 -0.34 0.17 -1.43 -0.18 -0.87 1906 1.52 0.28 1.48 0.00 1.96 1.15 0.11 0.30 0.13 -1.52 -0.02 1.36 1907 1.16 0.22 2.08 -0.33 -0.40 1.45 -1.37 -0.12 0.13 0.45 -1.67 1.13 1908 0.33 -0.22 -1.50 -0.90 0.91 -0.10 -0.69 -0.01 0.82 0.44 -0.18 -1.39 1909 2.43 1.01 -0.16 -1.53 -0.73 -0.41 -0.52 -0.25 0.75 0.73 1.35 0.98 1910 0.53 -0.40 -0.12 -0.71 -0.82 -1.43 0.52 -1.50 0.83 -0.14 0.01 -0.31 1911 2.06 -0.34 0.83 0.47 0.17 -0.08 -0.33 -1.27 -0.01 -0.76 -0.68 -0.67 1912 0.24 -1.25 0.11 0.94 0.92 0.30 -0.09 0.19 0.66 0.15 0.51 -0.84 1913 0.42 -1.42 -0.24 0.11 0.75 1.75 2.43 0.90 0.23 -1.50 1.32 0.99 1914 2.30 0.37 -2.11 0.58 -0.12 1.22 -0.24 -0.88 0.43 0.52 -1.11 -0.09 1915 0.39 1.31 -0.59 -0.26 2.27 -1.31 -0.33 -0.34 0.25 -1.47 0.04 0.58 1916 2.23 0.11 0.24 -0.94 0.00 -0.56 1.35 0.03 -0.06 0.87 -0.12 0.62 1917 -1.13 0.57 -0.30 -0.10 0.74 -0.96 -0.24 0.03 -0.32 -1.52 -0.24 -0.47 1918 -1.24 0.62 1.02 -0.47 -0.47 -0.17 -0.09 -0.04 1.70 0.14 0.49 -0.84 1919 -0.59 0.94 0.28 -0.65 -0.75 -1.51 -1.50 -1.11 0.60 -0.50 -1.12 0.40 1920 -2.38 -0.92 0.99 0.88 -0.98 0.13 -0.05 0.94 0.23 1.30 1.43 0.86 1921 0.89 -0.49 -0.02 -0.87 1.59 -0.37 -1.50 -0.57 0.01 -0.25 -0.26 1.17 1922 -0.15 0.84 0.31 -0.67 0.28 -0.25 0.83 0.87 -1.61 0.54 0.60 1.23 1923 0.15 -1.54 -2.11 1.53 0.14 1.19 -0.42 0.19 1.02 -0.73 -1.36 -1.18 1924 -0.71 -0.77 -0.52 -0.73 -1.83 -1.16 -1.15 0.10 -0.32 1.62 0.23 0.39 1925 -0.44 0.60 -0.29 0.81 1.01 0.68 1.06 0.81 0.72 0.16 -0.18 -0.80 1926 -0.23 0.59 -2.11 1.38 -0.27 -0.67 0.15 0.30 -2.10 0.27 2.23 -0.59 1927 0.07 1.07 -0.25 0.64 0.01 -0.81 -0.16 -0.45 -0.14 1.10 0.92 -0.32

DendroClim 2002• Met data format, in this case, monthly SPI for NOAA California Climate

Division 03:

• Important concepts:

• Bootstrapping: a “resampling” technique that allows estimation of a sampling distribution, especially when the sample size is small or the underlying distribution is unknown (both occur in dendroclimatology).

• Moving Response Functions: calculated over a moving window of years, determined either by the software or by the user (35-40 yr window is most common).

• Evolutionary Response Functions: similar, but the first year or last year is fixed and additional years are added to the window over time.

• Temporal Stability: both are used to test the stability of the climate-tree growth relationship over time. If the relationship is NOT stable, then the principle of uniformitarianism does not hold.

• Response Function Analysis ≠ Correlation Analysis! RFA uses principal components multiple regression to determine climate relationship with tree growth.

• In the color-coded graphics, each box represents the last year in the moving window. Very important to know this!

DendroClim 2002

• Explanation of moving and evolutionary interval analyses:

DendroClim 2002

• The DendroClim 2002 Main Menu, very simple interface:

DendroClim 2002

Figure 6. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs CA07 monthly precipitation.

Figure 5. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs PRISM monthly precipitation.

Figure 7. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs CA07 monthly SPI.

Figure 8. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs Independence monthly ppt.

Figure 9. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs PRISM monthly max. temp.

Figure 10. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs Bishop monthly max. temp.

Figure 11. Moving correlation analysis: standard chronology vs CA07 monthly PDSI.

Figure 12. Moving correlation analysis: standard chronology vs monthly PDO.

Figure 14. Moving correlation analysis: residual chronology vs Big Pine Creek streamflow.

 

 

PRISM May Temp

• Summary of our climate analyses:

DendroClim 2002