Climate System – Social System Climate System – Social System Interactions in the Northern AtlanticInteractions in the Northern Atlantic

North Atlantic Arc project – NAArcNorth Atlantic Arc project – NAArc

NSF Arctic Social Sciences and ARCSSNSF Arctic Social Sciences and ARCSS

Physical system change

Human activities

Biological system change

Biological changes affect humans

Physical/social interactions affect biological system

Influences, feedbacks and interactions among systems

Three case studiesThree case studies Major changes have Major changes have

affected fisheries across affected fisheries across the Northern Atlantic.the Northern Atlantic.

Interactions between Interactions between physical, biological and physical, biological and human systems.human systems.

Despite local differences, Despite local differences, strong patterns emerge.strong patterns emerge.

Such patterns provide Such patterns provide “empirical models” of “empirical models” of human response to large human response to large environmental change.environmental change.

Siglufjörður, North Iceland Traditional 1965—66

After Vilhjalmsson 1997

2deg isotherm.shp herring-trad.shp

View: Iceland

#

#

GREENLANDSEA

NORTHATLANTIC FAROE

ISLANDSSHETLANDISLANDS

ICELANDSEA

Seydisfjordur

Siglufjordur

0 200 400 600 Kilometers

2 Degree Isotherm at 50 MHerring Feeding Area

63°

68°

73°

20° 14° 8° 2°

2deg isotherm.shp herring-trad.shp

View: Iceland

#

#

GREENLANDSEA

NORTHATLANTIC FAROE

ISLANDSSHETLANDISLANDS

ICELANDSEA

Seydisfjordur

Siglufjordur

0 200 400 600 Kilometers

2 Degree Isotherm at 50 MHerring Feeding Area

63°

68°

73°

20° 14° 8° 2°

““The herring years were The herring years were special, indescribable. And special, indescribable. And they will never come again.”they will never come again.” Siglufjörður residentSiglufjörður resident

Siglufjörður in March 2003

Herring catch and salinity, 1905–2000Herring catch and salinity, 1905–2000

34.4

34.5

34.6

34.7

34.8

34.9

3535

.1S

alin

ity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Her

ring

catc

h, 1

000

tons

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Iceland herring catch Siglunes salinity

Late-1960s herring collapse coincided with arrival of an Arctic-origin Great Salinity Anomaly – GSA’70s

Biomass, catch and mortality, 1950–2000Biomass, catch and mortality, 1950–2000

01

23

Fis

hing

mor

talit

y

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Bio

mas

s an

d ca

tch,

100

0t

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Biomass Catch

Fishing mortality ages 0-14

Herring biomass was declining from overfishing before GSA’70s

Population of SiglufjPopulation of Siglufjörðörður, 1890–2000ur, 1890–2000

0

1000

2000

3000

Pop

ulat

ion

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Siglufjörður population declined as N Iceland herring declined and the fishery needed less labor.

0 400 800 Kilometers

Iceland

UnitedKingdom

Norway

Denmark

FAROE

ISLANDS

0 80 160 Kilometers

N

Torshavn

North

Atlantic

Ocean

Norwegian

Sea

Faroe Islands, Northeast Atlantic

Faroese landings of demersal fish from Faroese landings of demersal fish from home waters, 1961-2000home waters, 1961-2000

10

00

ton

s

Plateau cod Haddock Saithe

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Fisheries crisis ca. 1985-95. Overfishingplus physical change (GSA’80s?).

Faroe Islands total population 1970-2000Faroe Islands total population 1970-2000P

op

ula

tion

in th

ou

san

ds

1970 1980 1990 2000

38

40

42

44

46

48

Faroes population 13% lower than pre-crisis trend

Faroe Islands cod catch and net migration Faroe Islands cod catch and net migration 1980-20001980-2000

Ne

t mig

ratio

n

Year

Co

dfis

h c

atc

h, t

on

s

Net migration Codfish catch, tons

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Net migration follows cod catches, with lag of 1-2 years, 1982-96

Net migration by sex and age group, crisis Net migration by sex and age group, crisis years 1989-95years 1989-95

Ne

t mig

ratio

n

Age in 5-year groups

Males Females

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

-1100

-1000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

Crisis-years net migration: more men than women leaving, ages 25 and higher. More women than men leaving, ages 15-24.

Newfoundland, Newfoundland, showing showing Northern Northern Peninsula and Peninsula and northern Gulf of northern Gulf of St. LawrenceSt. Lawrence

QUEBEC

LABRADOR 55W

50N

Northern Peninsula

(Northern Cod)

AvalonPeninsula

Northern Gulf ofSt. Lawrence

St. John's

N

0 200 400 Kilometers

““Winners and losers” from ecological change: Winners and losers” from ecological change: Landings value in 3 regions, 1986-98Landings value in 3 regions, 1986-98

South Coast

Burin Peninsula

Northern Peninsula

0

20

40

60

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 19980

20

40

60

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

0

20

40

60

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Mill

ion

s o

f 1

99

8 d

olla

rs

Shellfish

Demersal

Pelagic

other types/products

Integrating time series across disciplines: Newfoundland’s Integrating time series across disciplines: Newfoundland’s Northern Peninsula and the northern Gulf of St. LawrenceNorthern Peninsula and the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence

Min. CIL temp.

Max. ice area

N. Gulf cod catchtotal and Canada

Mean weight per fish,8 indicator species

N. Peninsulapopulation

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

General patternsGeneral patterns

Dramatic spikes followed by steep declines often Dramatic spikes followed by steep declines often characterize modern fisheries.characterize modern fisheries.

Declines reflect interaction between fishing Declines reflect interaction between fishing pressure and climate.pressure and climate.

Long-lived species have adapted to decadal-scale Long-lived species have adapted to decadal-scale climatic variations.climatic variations.

Fisheries remove predators and larger fish, Fisheries remove predators and larger fish, leaving less robust ecosystems behind.leaving less robust ecosystems behind.

Invertebrates become more abundant.Invertebrates become more abundant. Outmigration reshapes human populations, and Outmigration reshapes human populations, and

affects prospects for sustainable development.affects prospects for sustainable development.

Small places see outmigration and Small places see outmigration and demographic change.demographic change.

Net migration is a sensitive indicator.Net migration is a sensitive indicator. Young adults first to leave.Young adults first to leave. Older, less educated population remains.Older, less educated population remains. Transfer-payment dependency grows.Transfer-payment dependency grows. Regional centers expand.Regional centers expand.

Social factors influence the differential Social factors influence the differential outcomes among people and places.outcomes among people and places.

Economic diversification is a difficult goal.Economic diversification is a difficult goal. New fisheries risk depletion, like the old.New fisheries risk depletion, like the old. Tourism is “Plan B” everywhere.Tourism is “Plan B” everywhere. Government investments are vital, but Government investments are vital, but

often fail.often fail. Some communities are more cohesive, Some communities are more cohesive,

effective than others.effective than others.

THE END