Climate tendencies in the South Shetlands: was 1998

a climate divider ?

Alberto Setzer, Francisco E. Aquino and Marcelo Romao O.CPTEC - INPE - Brazil

A b s t r a c tTemporal series of meteorological data for the South Shetland Islands in widely distributed data basis show air temperature increase and pressure drop at surface level during the last decades. These patterns are particularly clear in reanalysis data that start in 1948, and a large number of papers is found describing and interpreting these tendencies, and using them to support future scenarios and to correlate them with assorted environmental variables. However, a closer look at more recent station records in the region present a puzzling contradiction to the long term series and reanalysis tendencies. Surface pressure raised more than 2 hPa in the last 10 years and appears to be currently at a maximum; since 1998-1999, therefore for seven years, air temperature declined about 1°C. Surface winds in the last years are also decreasing, as a possible indication of a change of weather pattern in the region. This paper presents the evidence to the contradictions in the data sets and points to relevant effects in generating wrong analyses of Antarctic climate. For instance, an incorrect reference of surface pressure results in wrong temperatures at standard pressure levels in the atmosphere leading to non existing temporal variations

The general picture: surface air pressure is falling at about 5 hPa/50 years in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula

Surface Air Pressure, sector 60o to 65oS & 55o to 60oW(Source: NOAA-CDC-NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data)

y = -0,0922x + 1174,9

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1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Y e a r

Annu

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Pa

The real picture, last 20 years: surface air pressure is NOT fallingSurface Air Pressure, sector 60o to 65oS & 55o to 60oW

(Source: NOAA-CDC-NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data)

y = -0,0142x + 1019,4

R2 = 0,002988

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

Y e a r

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Actually, stations indicate that surface air pressure IS RISING !Surface Air Pressure, Ferraz Station, King George I.

Source: www.cptec.inpe.br/antartica

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1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Y e a r

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+2 hPa, last 10 years

The general picture: surface air temperature is rising at about 2oC/50 years in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula

Surface Air Temperature, sector 60o to 65oS & 55o to 60oW(Source: NOAA-CDC-NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data)

y = 0,0356x - 74,537

R2 = 0,3309

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1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Y e a r

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oC

“The 2004 meteorological year was the fourth warmest year in the period of accurate instrumental data (since the late 1800s).”

The annual-mean global surface temperature is 0.48°C above the climatological mean (1951-1980 average) in the GISS analysis, which uses meteorological station measurements over land and satellite measurements of sea surface temperature over the ocean.

James Hansen and Makiko Sato at http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/2004/

North Antarctic Peninsula is supposedly a hotspot in present climate variations

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esperanza

belling

frei

marambio

o higgins

orcadas

ferraz

AirTemperature

In 1999 temperatures started to decline at all stations in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula and also at Orcadas.

(Source: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/data.html)

Detail of the cooling in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula and Orcadas. Average yearly temperatures show linear decrease over 0.5oC in 6 years. (Source: http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/READER/data.html)

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Bellingshausen

Frei

Ferraz

Orcadas

Linear (Frei)

Linear (Ferraz)

Linear(Bellingshausen)Linear(Orcadas)

Mean annual air temperatures at Ferraz Station (1986-2006)(Source: http://www.cptec.inpe.br/antartica)

y = 0,0553x - 112,04R2 = 0,1549

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, C

Mean of the maxima

Mean of the minima

Mean

Reduction in the air temperature is noticed also at the means of the daily maxima and minima, starting in 1998 for the maxima.

Since 1998 wind speed at weather stations increased in the region; however, 2005 was a “calm” year.

Mean Wind Speed, north Antarctic Peninsula

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1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006Y e a r

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Bellingshausen

Ferraz kt

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Marambio

Orcadas

Southern Hemisphere Anular Mode for 30W to 60W(pressure difference 40S - 65S)

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1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006Year

ye

arl

y p

res

su

re a

no

ma

ly, h

Pa

At about 1998 the pattern of sea level pressure also changed in the north of the Antarctic Peninsula.The figure below shows a regional SAM (Southern Hemisphere Anular Mode), which is the sea-level atmospheric pressure difference between the latitudes of 40oS and 65oS, but calculated only for the sector of 30oW and 65oW.(Source: NOAA-CDC-NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data)

Surface Air Pressure, sector 60o to 66oS & 55o to 60oW(Source: NOAA-CDC-NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data)

988

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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Y e a r

An

nu

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Avera

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ress.,

hP

a

Surface Air Temperature, sector 60o to 66oS & 55o to 60oW(Source: NOAA-CDC-NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data)

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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Y e a r

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Air

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Decrease in temperature seem to match the maxima and reduction in sunsptos

Source:http://sidc.oma.be

Some consequences of the sea-level pressure variation.

A difference of 02 hPa, which actually happened in the last 10 years, has the following result in temperatures calculated at different heights:

(p1*v1 / T1) = (p2*v2 / T2)

Using p2 = (p1+2hPa) and v1 = v2 (constant air density), the temperature at 500 hPa increases by 0.4%, or ~ 1oC; the temperature at 250 hPa increases by 0.8%, or ~ 2oC.

Atmospheric modelling does not include such effects. Therefore, current indications of increases in the air temperature of the troposphere in sub-Antarctic and Antarctic regions could be the results of pressure cycles and not of regional or global warming.