Climate Threats to Mindanao by PAGASA

8/2/2019 Climate Threats to Mindanao by PAGASA

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What is the effect of the 2012 Projected WeatherPattern on the island of Mindanao?

Vicente B. Malano , Ph.D.Acting DA for Operations and ServicesPAGASA


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Thunderstorms

Tail-end of Cold front

Low Pressure Area Tropical Cyclones

Easterly Wave

Monsoons


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Weather Systems to affect the country

during February to March

1. Northeast Monsoon.

2. Tail end of cold front.

3. Low Pressure Area (LPA).

4. Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA).


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Weather Systems to affect the country

during April to June

1. Tail end of cold front.

2. Inter-tropical Convergence Zone.

3. Southwest Monsoon.

4. Easterly wave.

5. Ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA).

6. Two(2) to four(4) tropical cyclones.


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Butuan

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Lumbia

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0

450.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Dipolog

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

350.0

400.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Malaybalay

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

1000.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Hinatuan

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Davao

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in Zamboanga

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0


Comparison of Rainfall during ENSO and Normal Years in General Santos

NORMAL (1981-2010)

NEUTRAL

EL NIO

LA NIA


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Percent of Normal Interpretation

for Monthly Rainfall

Actual Rainfall

Normal Rainfallx 100%Percent of Normal =

PERCENTAGE RAINFALL CONDITION

< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

below normal

near normal

above normal

way below normal


< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %


< 40%

41% - 80%

81% - 120%

> 120 %

below normal

near normal

above normal

way below normal

Within normal


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Rainfall during thisMonth (Feb 2012)


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February 1-13, 2012Actual (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)(1971-2000)

Actual Rainfall for February 2012


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Projected Rainfall(March July 2012)


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Monthly Rainfall ForecastENSEMBLE

March 2012

Forecast (mm) % Normal

Normal (mm)

(1971-2000)

Monthly Rainfall Forecast


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April 2012


Normal (mm)

(1971-2000)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastENSEMBLEMonthly Rainfall Forecast


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May 2012


Normal (mm)

(1971-2000)



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June 2012


Normal (mm)

(1971-2000)



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July 2012


Normal (mm)

(1971-2000)

Monthly Rainfall Forecast


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Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Mindanao Area in millimeters (February June 2012)


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Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Mindanao Area in Percent Normal (February June 2012)


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Historical El Nio and La Nia EpisodesBased on the ONI computed using ERSST.v3b

NOTE:

After updating the

ocean analysisto

ERSST.v3b, a new La

Nia episode was

classi

fied (ASO 1962-DJF 1962/63) and two

previous La Nia

episodes were

combined into one

single episode (AMJ

1973- MAM 1976).

Highest

El Nio ONI Value

Lowest

La Nina ONI ValueJAS 1951 - NDJ 1951/52 0.8 ASO 1949 FMA 1951 -1.7

MAM 1957 MJJ 1958 1.7 MAM 1954 DJF 1956/57 -2.1

JJA 1963 DJF 1963/64 1.0 ASO 1962 DJF 1962/63 -0.8

MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 1.6 MAM 1964 DJF 1964/65 -1.1

OND 1968 MJJ 1969 1.0 NDJ 1967/68 MAM 1968 -0.9

ASO 1969 DJF 1969/70 0.8 JJA 1970 DJF 1971/72 -1.3

AMJ 1972 FMA 1973 2.1 AMJ 1973 MAM 1976 -2.0

ASO 1976 JFM 1977 0.8 SON 1984 ASO 1985 -1.0

ASO 1977 - DJF 1977/78 0.8 AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 -1.9

AMJ 1982 MJJ 1983 2.3 ASO 1995 FMA 1996 -0.7

JAS 1986 JFM 1988 1.6 JJA 1998 MJJ 2000 -1.6

AMJ 1991 JJA 1992 1.8 SON 2000 JFM 2001 -0.7

AMJ 1994 FMA 1995 1.3 ASO 2007 AMJ 2008 -1.4

AMJ 1997 AMJ 1998 2.5 JJA 2010 MAM 2011 -1.4

AMJ 2002 FMA 2003 1.5

MJJ 2004 JFM 2005 0.9

JAS 2006 - DJF 2006/07 1.1

MJJ 2009 MAM 2010 1.8


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Weather and Climate Effects/impacts


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.

TS Sendong ranked No. 1 in

the ten (10) most destructive TCs

during 2011 with the most

number of casualties totalling to1,257 (as per NDRRMC report).

Cagayan de Oro and Iligan

suffered the most.


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February 2006

Floods in Surigaoprovinces, Agusan

provinces, Southern

Samar and Leyte Island

Aurora


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From Philippine Star ( December 2010

Albay Flooding)Compostela Valley Flooding (Jan 3,2011)

Mindanao Flood (January 5, 2011

) Mindanao Flood (January 7, 2011

)

2010-2011 La Nia Impacts


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FLASH

FLOOD

T. STORMT. STORM


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THANK YOU !

PAGASA-DOST website:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

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Climate Threats to Mindanao by PAGASA