WATER SUPPLY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT:WATER SUPPLY PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT:

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGECLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

Derek WinstanleyDerek Winstanley

C / S GCMAP/RWSPGSycamore, 2007

July 24, 2007

IDNR/OWR ISWS

CONTENTS

• INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION• DEFINITIONS• HISTORICAL CLIMATE• HISTORICAL CLIMATE• FUTURE CLIMATE

li t h- climate change- droughts

• UNCERTAINTY AND RISK IN WATER SUPPLY PLANNING

ACKNOWLEDGMENTSACKNOWLEDGMENTS

• Ken Kunkel ISWSKen Kunkel, ISWS• Jim Angel, ISWS

Xi h Li ISWS• Xin-zhong Liang, ISWS• Mike Palecki, ISWS• Vern Knapp, ISWS• USGS streamflow dataUSGS streamflow data• NOAA climate data

THE WATER CYCLE:CLIMATE SURFACE WATER andCLIMATE, SURFACE WATER, and

GROUNDWATER ARE LINKED

1.CLIMATE CONDITIONS ARE A MAJOR FACTOR IN WATER SUPPLYFACTOR IN WATER SUPPLY

2.LONG-RANGE WATER SUPPLY2.LONG RANGE WATER SUPPLY PLANNING REQUIRES CONSIDERATION OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS TO 2050 AND PERHAPS BEYOND

3 FUTURE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ARE3.FUTURE CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN

4.THE CHALLENGE IS HOW TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTIES AND ASSOCIATED RISKS

DEFINITION of CLIMATEDEFINITION of CLIMATE

• The statistical aggregate of weatherThe statistical aggregate of weather conditions over a period of time: temperature; precipitation; wind;temperature; precipitation; wind; cloudiness; storms; etc.

• Climate “normals” are set over 30 year• Climate normals are set over 30 year periods: means; extremes; frequencies of occurrence etcoccurrence etc.

• Current “normal” period is 1971-2000.• This will change to 1981-2010 in 2011.

DEFINITIONS:

CLIMATE VARIABILITYCLIMATE VARIABILITYand

CLIMATE CHANGE

DEFINITION of CLIMATE VARIABILITY• Variations (ups and downs) in climatic

conditions on time scales of months, years, decades, centuries, and milenia. Includes droughts and floods.

DEFINITION of CLIMATE CHANGE• A statistically significant change in climate

characteristics over a period of timecharacteristics over a period of time.– From one 30-year period to another

From one century to another– From one century to another– From one millenium to another

Y ’t h li t h l th• You can’t have climate change over less than a 30-year period.

• Climate change can be a change in the mean, a change in extremes, or change in frequencies.

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE ON

WATER SUPPLYWATER SUPPLY

D ht d l i it ti• Droughts and lower precipitation reduce water availability

• Higher temperatures increase the loss of water and increase water demand

• Droughts and high temperatures combined have the largest impacts on g pwater supply and demand

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE1971-20001971-2000

Global WarminggSource: Hadley Centre, UK

58.5

58.0

57 0

57.5

mpe

ratu

re (F

)

56.5

57.0

Tem

Annual Smoothed

Global Average

56.01850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

Annual Smoothed

Temperature Annual SmoothedSource: Jim Angel, Illinois State Water Survey

53

54

55

re (F

)

UNITED STATES51

52

53

Tem

pera

tu

501890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

56

54

ure

(F)

50

52

Tem

pera

tu

ILLINOIS48

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Annual Temperature: Marengo and O’HareLong Term Temperature Time Serieso g e e pe atu e e Se es

50

52

54

44

46

48

Marengo

40

42

44

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Long Term Temperature Time Series

54

56

48

50

52

O'Hare

42

44

46

1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

ANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDSANNUAL TEMPERATURE TRENDS

TEMPERATURE CHANGES IN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL USA ARE NOT THE SAME ASCENTRAL USA ARE NOT THE SAME AS

GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE TRENDS

20+ DAYS INCREASE IN GROWING SEASON IN WEST.SEASON IN WEST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN EAST (K. Kunkel)U S G i S L thU.S. Growing Season Length

15

ys)

5

10

vera

ge (d

ay

-5

0

on fr

om a

v

-15

-10

1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Dev

iatio

1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Year

West East

Lake10-Year Running AveragesMichigan

10 Year Running AveragesWatershed precipitationIllinois River streamflow at Meredosia/Valley City(minus Lake Michigan diversion)Groundwater elevation at Snicarte40 16

INDIANA

ILLINOIS

MeredosiaSnicarte

Valley City

s39

38

15

14

37 13

36

35 449.0

12

11

34

33

32

448.0

448.510

9

832

31

447.0

447.5

30

8

7

61900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

10-year running averages of Illinois River watershed precipitation,streamflow (minus Lake Michigan diversion), and groundwater elevation.

USA 20th CENTURYPRECIPITATION TRENDSPRECIPITATION TRENDS

Climate – Streamflow RelationshipIlli iIllinois

• A 10 percent change in precipitation typically results in a 20-30 percent change yp y p gin streamflow

Vern Knapp in Winstanley et al. (2006), ISWS IEM 2006-02

38 12

36

37

ches

)

10

11

hes)

average watershed precipitation (3 gages)

streamflow at Keokuk

Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA

34

35

mov

ing

aver

age

(inc

9

10

ovin

g av

erag

e (in

c

32

33

ipita

tion

10-y

ear m

7

8

amflo

w, 1

0-ye

ar m

o

30

31

Ann

ual P

reci

5

6

Ann

ual S

trea

r = 0.878

28

29

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20004

5

Trends in Heavy Precipitation E A USA (K K k l)Events Across USA (K. Kunkel)

40

60

%)

0

20

nom

aly

(%

-40

-20

EPI A

n

-601895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

YearYear

1-yr 5-yr 20-yr

Trends in Precipitation Events A USA (M P l ki)Across USA (M. Palecki)

U.S. 1-day duration, 1-yr return

1 3

1.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

n In

dex

0 8

0.9

1

ecip

itatio

n

0.6

0.7

0.8

Pre

1855 1875 1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995Year

Vern Knapp, ISWS30

10-Year Moving Average Flows for Ohio River and Tributaries

22

24

26

28

wat

ersh

ed)

10-Year Moving Average Flows for Ohio River and Tributaries

16

18

20

22

vera

ge F

low

(inc

hes

over

w

Tennessee

KanawhaAllegheny

Wabash

8

10

12

14

10-Y

ear A

v WabashGreat Miami

Ohio-MetropolisOhio-Lousiville

35

36

37

38

age (in

ches)

10

11

12

age (in

ches)

average watershed precipitation (3 gages)

streamflow at Keokuk

Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA

81880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

31

32

33

34

Precipitatio

n 10-year m

oving averag

7

8

9

Stream

flow, 10-year moving averag

28

29

30

31

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ann

ual P

r

4

5

6

Ann

ual S

r = 0.878

QUESTION: IF THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION SINCE 1900 IS DUE TO THE INCREASING GREENHOUSE EFFECT, WHAT CAUSED EQUALLYTO THE INCREASING GREENHOUSE EFFECT, WHAT CAUSED EQUALLY

HIGH PRECIPITATION IN THE 19th CENTURY AND A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE 20th CENTURY?

ANSWER: UNEXPLAINED NATURAL VARIABILITY.38 12

Mississippi River at Keokuk IA

35

36

37

ge (i

nche

s)

10

11

ge (i

nche

s)

average watershed precipitation (3 gages)

streamflow at Keokuk

Mississippi River at Keokuk, IA

33

34

10-y

ear m

ovin

g av

erag

8

9

10-y

ear m

ovin

g av

erag

30

31

32

Ann

ual P

reci

pita

tion

6

7

Ann

ual S

trea

mflo

w,

28

29

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20004

5r = 0.878

FUTURE CLIMATE

• Future climate will be influenced by ynatural processes and human influences.

• There are 2 guides to possible future• There are 2 guides to possible future climatic conditions:-

The past record (what has occurred can– The past record (what has occurred can occur again)Climate modeling– Climate modeling

WEAKNESS of GCMs in SIMULATING PRECIPITATION (Wi l 2004)PRECIPITATION (Wigley, 2004)

Illinois Annual Temperature Departure from 1971-2000 NormalIllinois Annual Temperature Departure from 1971-2000 Normal

12

14

8

10

12

partu

re (F

)

4

6

erat

ure

Dep

2

0

2

Tem

pe

-21825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Year

20th Century A2 5th A2 95th A1B 5th A1B 95th B1 5th B1 95th

1 in 200 YEAR DROUGHT

CLIMATE, WATER DEMAND AND WATER AVAILABILITY: UNCERTAINTY AND RISK

WATER DEMAND TO 2050• Three scenarios will assume 1971 2000 climatic conditions• Three scenarios will assume 1971-2000 climatic conditions• Separate analyses will be conducted to evaluate the

sensitivity of water demand to climate change (+6oF and + y g (and – 5 ins precipitation) and severe droughts

WATER AVAILABILITY TO 2050WATER AVAILABILITY TO 2050• Reference scenarios will assume 1971-2000 climatic

conditionsconditions• Separate analyses will be conducted to evaluate the

sensitivity of water availability to climate change (+6oF and + and – 5 ins precipitation) and severe droughts

Derek WinstanleyDerek Winstanley

Illi i St t W t SIllinois State Water Survey

dwinstan@uiuc.edu217 244 5459217-244 5459

www.sws.uiuc.edu/wsp/watersupply.asp

THANK YOU!