CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST: …geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/swclimatereport.pdf · 11 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST IMPACTS, INFORMATION NEEDS,

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CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWESTIMPACTS, INFORMATION NEEDS, AND ISSUES FOR POLICYMAKING

Final Reportof the

Southwest Regional Climate Change Symposium and Workshop

September 3-5, 1997 • Tucson, Arizona

Edited by

Robert Merideth1, Diana Liverman2, Roger Bales3, and Mark Patterson4

atThe University of Arizona

Tucson, Arizona

Sponsored by theU.S. Department of the Interior

and theU.S. Global Change Research Program

Washington, D.C.

July 1998

1Coordinator, Global Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Programs, UA Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy.2Director, UA Latin American Area Center and Associate Professor of Geography and Regional Development.3Acting Director, UA Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and Professor of Hydrology and Water Resources.4Graduate Research Associate, UA Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

I. Overview

1. Background ................................................................................................................................1

2. USGS Web Workshop ...............................................................................................................3

3. Participants.................................................................................................................................7

II. Symposium

4. Plenary Presentations ..............................................................................................................11

5. Southwest Regional Overview ................................................................................................13

6. Climate Patterns and Trends in the Southwest........................................................................21

7. Future Climate of the Southwest..............................................................................................25

8. Panel Presentations .................................................................................................................29

III. Workshop: Sectoral Issues

9. Municipal and Industrial Water Resources ..............................................................................37

10. Urbanization and Energy Use...................................................................................................41

11. Natural Environment.................................................................................................................45

12. Agriculture ................................................................................................................................49

13. Ranching ..................................................................................................................................51

IV. Workshop: Crosscutting Issues

14. Environmental Quality and Health............................................................................................57

15. Indian Country ..........................................................................................................................61

16. U.S.-Mexico Border ..................................................................................................................65

17. Disaster Management ..............................................................................................................69

18. Education and Outreach...........................................................................................................73

V. Wrap-up Session

19. Recommendations ...................................................................................................................77

VI. Appendices

PART I

OVERVIEW

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CHAPTER 1BACKGROUND

Robert Merideth, CoordinatorGlobal Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Programs

Udall Center for Studies in Public PolicyThe University of Arizona

Tucson, AZ

At the request of the U.S. Department of theInterior and the U.S. Global Change ResearchProgram (USGCRP), the Udall Center forStudies in Public Policy and other units at TheUniversity of Arizona organized and hosted theSouthwest Regional Climate ChangeSymposium and Workshop in Tucson, Arizona,on September 3-5, 1997.

The intent of the symposium and workshop wasto bring together important stakeholders--representatives from the private sector,government agencies, educational institutions,and interested citizens--to determine thestate-of-knowledge, information and researchneeds, and possible policy strategies related tothe impacts of and responses to climatevariability and change in the Southwest. Theevent was one in a series of some two dozensuch regional climate-change conferenceshosted under the auspices of the USGCRP andvarious federal agencies.

For the purposes of the symposium andworkshop, the Southwest was defined as thestates of Arizona and New Mexico, as well asadjacent portions of California, Nevada, Utah,Colorado, and Texas. This area correspondsroughly to that encompassed by the lowerColorado River and upper Rio Grande basins,and includes the relevant portions of the U.S.-Mexico border region and Indian Country.

Organization

The organizational and logistical operations forthe event were based at the Udall Center forStudies in Public Policy, an applied research andoutreach unit of The University of Arizona. Robert Merideth, coordinator of the Center’sGlobal Change and U.S.-Mexico BorderPrograms supervised the operations. JonUnruh served as conference manager andorganizer, working with several graduate student

assistants, David Adams, Emma Olenberger,and Mark Patterson.

The organizers established a local planningcommittee that met regularly throughout thesummer (1997) to advise and assist with theseefforts. These committee members (all fromThe University of Arizona or the Tucson area)were:

• Mark Anderson, U.S. GeologicalSurvey/Water Resources Division

• Roger Bales, Interim Director, UA Institutefor the Study of Planet Earth

• David Goodrich, USDA/AgriculturalResearch Service

• William Halvorson, UA Cooperative ParkStudies Unit/USGS Biological ResourcesDivision

• William Harriss and Michael Molitor,Columbia University/Biosphere 2

• Christopher Helms, Director, Morris K.Udall Foundation

• Malcolm Hughes, Director, UA Laboratoryfor Tree-Ring Research

• Charles Hutchinson, Associate Director,UA Office of Arid Lands Research

• Diana Liverman, Director, UA LatinAmerican Area Center and AssociateProfessor of Geography

• Mitchel McClaran, Associate Professor, UASchool of Renewable and NaturalResources

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• Margaret McGonagill, Director, UA FederalRelations Program

• Steven Mullen, Associate Professor, UADept. of Atmospheric Sciences

• Soroosh Sorooshian, Professor, UA Dept.of Hydrology and Water Resources

• Robert Varady, Interim Director, UdallCenter for Studies in Public Policy

• Marvin Waterstone, Associate Professor,UA Department of Geography

• Robert Webb, U.S. GeologicalSurvey/Desert Laboratory

Format

The organizers and planning committee decidedupon a three-level format for the program (seeAppendix A):

• A one-day symposium open to thepublic.

• A one-day workshop for about 100invited participants in a series ofthematic breakouts to define theresearch agenda and information needsfor each of several sectors andcrosscutting issues.

• A half-day wrap-up session of about 30persons to begin to fashion a draftoutline and text for a conference reportbased on the previous days' activities.

In addition, the organizers and members of theplanning committee for the September programparticipated in an online Web workshop(http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/) developedand organized by the U.S. Geological Survey(USGS) and held in July 1997 (see Chapter 2). The Web workshop was intended to initiate adiscussion--prior to the September symposiumand workshop--on the effects of climatevariability, possible natural and human-relatedlong-term climate change, and land-use changein the rapidly growing southwestern UnitedStates.

Logistics

Planning and organization for the Septemberevent began in May 1997 and continued throughthe conclusion of the symposium. The first stepsinvolved using the networks of the variousplanning-committee members to begincontacting potential speakers and panelists forthe symposium and developing a list of personsto be invited to the workshop and wrap-upsession.

An initial mailing advertisement for thesymposium went to the Udall Center's mailing listof some 2,500 names (a broad collection of stakeholders: academics, government-agencypersons, elected officials, and private citizensinterested in public policy and natural-resourcesmanagement issues). The Center's list wassupplemented by names and mailing listsprovided by members of the planning committee.The timing of the first mailing coincided with thestart of the USGS's Web workshop.

Additional smaller mailings were donethroughout the summer as more names or listswere acquired, and a final-reminder mailing wassent to the entire list again two weeks prior to thesymposium.

A similar strategy--with fewer, but more-targetednames--was used to invite participants to theworkshop and wrap-up session, in addition to thesymposium. Approximately 250 individualizedletters of invitation were sent to persons aroundthe region. (For those invited to participate in theworkshop, the organizers were able to offer theincentive of a modest stipend to cover travel,lodging, and meals.) Several of the conferencestaff were assigned to follow up the writteninvitations with a telephone call until a verbalcontact was made with each individual invited.

We believe that the combination of the broadmailing and notification, a stipend to cover traveland related expenses for workshop participants,and persistence in trying to contact each ofinvited participants contributed to the diversity ofstakeholders that attended the series of events(see Chapter 3).

As an attachment to the Udall Center's Web site,(http://udallcenter.arizona.edu) the organizerscreated a homepage for the symposium andworkshop containing: the symposium registrationform; the conference and workshop agendas; a

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listing and online copies of relevant articles in themedia; seven commissioned position papers;and a link to the USGS Web workshop.

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CHAPTER 2RELATED USGS WEB WORKSHOP

Robert S. Thompson, Chief ScientistGlobal Change & Climate History Program

U.S. Geological SurveyDenver, CO

Format

The U.S. Geological Survey's electronic, or Web,workshop, “Impact of Climate Change and LandUse in the Southwestern United States,” involvedacademic, governmental, and private sectorparticipants and was organized into fourcategories: climatic variability, climatic impacts,societal issues, and information resources(Figure 2.1, Plate 1).

• Climatic Variability: provides information anddiscussion on El Niño climates; on trends inprecipitation, droughts, floods, and otheraspects of climatic variability in theSouthwest during the recent past, or periodof instrumentation and records; and on theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 1995 report on potential futureclimate changes.

• Climatic Impacts: provides information anddiscussion on the effects of climate changeon "Life and Ecosystems," the "LandSurface," and "Water Resources." The firstcategory covers impacts on mammals, birds,reptiles, and cryptobiotic soils, as well asdiscussions on long-term monitoring ofchange, land-use history, forest fires, andephemeral pools. The "Land Surface"section discusses climate-change effects inregard to sand dunes, dust hazards, arroyocutting, erosion, and landslides, whereas the"Water Resources" section covers pastfloods, historic trends in water use, changesin wetlands, and ground subsidence.

• Societal Issues: provides discussion of the"Impacts of Climate Change on Society,""Human Impacts on the Landscape," and"Societal Responses to Climate Change." The first category covers U.S.-Mexico borderissues, water use and demand, the effects ofthe endangered species act, and droughtand ranching issues. The "Human Impacts"section discusses land-use trends, urban

land use, population growth, and otherlandscape changes. The "SocietalResponses" section discusses watermanagement during droughts,transboundary water issues, and rangelandmanagement.

• Information Resources: providesbackground information, including maps,population-growth figures, and links to otherclimate-change Web pages.

The USGS obtained and posted some 60position papers, research articles, and postersfor the workshop (Table 2.1). Among thesewere seven papers provided by the organizers ofthe September “Southwest Regional ClimateChange Symposium and Workshop.”

ResponseThe online workshop was held from July 7through July 27, 1997, and had 1,676 distinctusers visiting the Web site (with a total of 98,920page visits). Most users visited the site onlyonce during the workshop period, but nearly 28percent visited two or more times.

The information from the electronic workshop isstill available online and will be available onCD-ROM.

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Table 2.1. Online Papers and Posters for USGS Web Workshop:"Impacts of Climate Change and Land Use in the Southwestern United States"

http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/

Climatic Variability

• Precipitation Trends and Water Consumption in the Southwestern United States by Henry F. Diaz with Craig A. Anderson• Coping with Severe and Sustained Drought in the Southwest by Michael Dettinger• Effects of El Niño on Streamflow, Lake Level, and Landslide Potential by R. Reynolds with M. Dettinger, D. Cayan, D. Stephens, L.

Highland, and R. Wilson• Global Climate Change: The 1995 Report by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Robert S. Thompson• Historic Variations in Moisture Availability by Katherine H. Anderson with Robert S. Thompson• Precipitation Variability at High Spatial Resolution in the Desert Southwest by Andrew C. Comrie with Bill Broyles• Review of Variability in the North American Monsoon by David K. Adams• Some Perspectives on Climate and Floods in the Southwestern U.S. by the U.S. Geological Survey• Evapotransipration and Droughts by Ronald L. Hanson• Climate and Droughts by Alan L. McNab with Thomas R. Karl

Impacts of Climate Change on Life and Ecosystems

• Southwest U.S. Change Detection Images: Reno and Lake Tahoe, Nevada by Kristi Sayler• A Method for Deriving Phenological Metrics from Satellite Data, Colorado 1991-1995 by Bradley C. Reed with Kristi Sayler• Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) Program by Richard L. Reynolds• Monitoring Climate and Vegetation Changes at USGS GEOMET Sites by Paula J. Helm• Potential Effects of Global Change on Bats by Michael A. Bogan• Cryptobiotic Soils: Holding the Place in Place by Jayne Belnap• Mesoscale Ecological Responses to Climatic Variability in the American Southwest by Thomas W. Swetnam with Julio L. Betancourt• Global Change Impacts in the Colorado Rockies Biogeographical Area: Research Highlights by Thomas J. Stohlgren with Jill S. Baron• Land Use History of North America - (LUHNA):The Paleobotanical Record by Craig D. Allen with J.L. Betancourt, Thomas W. Swetnam• Land Use History of North America - (LUHNA): Repeat Photography by Craig D. Allen with Julio L. Betancourt, Thomas W. Swetnam• Assessment of Potential Future Vegetation Changes in the Southwestern U.S. by R. S. Thompson with K.H. Anderson and P.J. Bartlein• Desert Tortoise Ecology by Mojave Desert Tortoise GATF Project• Turtles and Global Climate Change by Jeffrey E. Lovich• Potential Impacts of Global Climate Change on Bird Communities of the Southwest by C. van Riper III with M.K. Sogge and D.W. Willey• Past Climate and Vegetation Changes in the Southwestern United States by Robert S. Thompson with Katherine H. Anderson• Forest Fires and Drought in the U.S. Southwest by Mark W. Patterson• Climate Change and Ephemeral Pool Ecosystems: Potholes and Vernal Pools as Potential Indicator Systems by Tim B. Graham

Impacts of Climate Change on the Land Surface

• Reactivation of Stabilized Sand Dunes on the Colorado Plateau by Daniel R. Muhs with Josh M. Been• Owens (Dry) Lake, California: A Human-Induced Dust Problem by Marith C. Reheis• The Rio Puerco Arroyo Cycle and the History of Landscape Changes by Scott Aby with Allen Gellis, Milan Pavich• The Arroyo Problem in the Southwestern United States by Brandon J. Vogt• Predicted Dust Emission vs. Measured Dust Deposition in the Southwestern United States by Marith Reheis with Jonathan Rademaekers• Mineral Dusts in the Southwestern U.S. by Todd K. Hinkley• Landslide Incidence and Susceptibility of the Southwestern United States by R.H. Yuhas with R.L. Reynolds, L.Highland, and J. Godt• Wind Erosion Vulnerability and Rainfall Mapping in the Southwestern United States by Pat S. Chavez, Jr. with Dave MacKinnon, Miguel

G. Velasco, Stuart C. Sides, and Deborah L. Soltesz• Erosion in the Rio Puerco: Geography and Processes by Raymond D. Watts with Richard Pelltier, Peter Molnar

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Table 2.1 (continued). Online Papers and Posters for USGS Web Workshop

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources

• Paleohydrology and its Value in Analyzing Floods and Droughts by Robert D. Jarrett• Water Use Trends in the Southwestern United States 1950-1990 by Michael O'Donnell with Jonathan Rademaekers• Loss of Wetlands in the Southwestern United States by Roberta H. Yuhas• Las Vegas Valley: Land Subsidence and Fissuring Due to Ground-Water Withdrawal by John W. Bell• Summary of Floods and Droughts in the Southwestern States by U.S Geological Survey

Impacts of Climate Change on Society

• Climate Variability and Social Vulnerability in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region: An Integrated Assessment of the Water Resources of theSan Pedro River and Santa Cruz River Basins by Diana Liverman with Robert Merideth and Andrew Holdsworth

• Changing Water Use and Demand in the Southwest by Jon Unruh with Diana Liverman• Earthshots: Great Salt Lake, Utah by Robb Campbell• The Endangered Species Act and Critical Habitat Designation: An Integrated Biological and Economic Approach by Gary Watts with

William Noonan, Henry Maddux, and David S. Brookshire• Drought and Ranching in Arizona: A Case of Vulnerability by Hallie Eakin with Diana Liverman

Human Impacts on the Landscape

• Land-Use Trends in the Southwestern United States by Michael O'Donnell• Urban Land Use Change in the Albuquerque Metropolitan Area by Paul Braun with Martin Chourre, Dave Hughes, Jamie Schubert, Heike

Striebek and Richard Thorstad• Urban Land Use Change in the Las Vegas Valley by William Acevedo with Leonard Gaydos, Janet Tilley, Carol Mladinich, Janis

Buchanan, Steve Blauer, Kelley Kruger, and Jamie Schubert• Population Growth of the Southwest United States, 1900-1990 by Martin Chourre with Stewart Wright• The Extent of Urbanization in the Southwest As Viewed from Space by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association with USAF

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program• Land Subsidence from Ground-Water Pumping by S.A. Leake• Earthshots: Imperial Valley, California by Robb Campbell• Southwest U.S. Change Detection Images: Las Vegas, Nevada by Kristi Sayler

Societal Responses to Climate and Landscape Changes

• Management of Water Resources for Drought Conditions by William R. Walker with Margaret S. Hrezo and Carol J. Haley• Transboundary Water Resources Management in the Upper Rio Grande Basin by Marvin Waterstone• The Malpai Borderlands Project: A Stewardship Approach to Rangeland Management by R. Randall Schumann

Information Resources

• Links to Other Climate-Change Related Web sites by U.S. Geological Survey• Population Density Data by County: An Interactive Database by Peter Schweitzer with Yew Yuan• General Map of the Southwestern United States by the U.S. Geological Survey

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7

CHAPTER 3PARTICIPANTS


andEmma Olenberger, Graduate Research Assistant


Tucson, AZ

The September 3 symposium attracted some380 participants, representing numerous anddiverse stakeholder groups. Table 3.1 providesdata on the backgrounds of these participants.

About 100 persons were invited to participate inthe workshop breakout sessions held on

September 4, while some 20 persons gatheredfor a wrap-up session on September 5.

The reports and list of participants from theworkshop sessions are presented in Chapters 9through 18, and the recommendations from thewrap-up session appear in Chapter 19.

Table 3.1. Attendance at the Southwest Regional Climate Change SymposiumSeptember 3, 1997 - Tucson, Arizona

Category Representing Num. Pct.

University/education or researchinstitution

§ 11 universities§ 9 other educational and research institutions

148 39%

State/local/tribal government § 30 state, county, or municipal governmental agencies§ 9 American Indian tribal governments§ 7 elected officials or their representatives (state & local)

78 21%

Other stakeholders § 15 nongovernmental organizations§ 14 consulting firms§ 11 industries or businesses§ 7 media outlets§ 7 ranches or farms

78 21%

Federal government § 19 federal agencies§ 5 elected officials (representatives for U.S. Senators Kyl

and McCain; representatives for U.S. Reps. Hayworth,Pastor, and Shadegg)

73 19%

Total 377

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9

PART II

SYMPOSIUM PRESENTATIONSSEPTEMBER 3, 1997

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CHAPTER 4PLENARY PRESENTATIONS


andMark Patterson, Graduate Research Associate


Tucson, AZ

Opening Speakers

Michael Cusanovich, Vice President forResearch at The University of Arizona,welcomed the participants and indicated that thesymposium reflected the strong interest theUniversity has in global change research, withmany faculty serving on key international andfederal advisory panels. He also stated that theUA’s set of global change activities is but oneexample of the University’s long tradition of andcommitment to interdisciplinary environmentalresearch.

John Garamendi, Deputy Secretary of the U.S.Department of the Interior provided the keynoteaddress. Garamendi spoke about the need forscientists to communicate their research findingsabout climate change to the public and remindedthe audience that it doesn't have the luxury ofwaiting. He quoted President Clinton, indicatingthat:

“The science is clear and compelling. We humans are changing the globalclimate. Concentrations ofgreenhouse gases levels are at theirhighest levels in more than 200,000years and they are climbing sharply. Here in the United States we must dobetter.”

Garamendi stressed that leadership from thescientific community is critical to move U.S.society—which has four percent of the world’spopulation but is responsible for 20 percent ofCO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning—to takenecessary action.

He also highlighted some of the potentialimpacts in the Southwest from climate change,including shifting sand dunes in the FourCorners region from a decrease in vegetation,

an increase in vector-borne diseases, and anincrease in severe (extreme) weather events. With regard to the (then upcoming) December1997 Kyoto Summit, Garamendi asserted thatthe U.S. has seven general directives to follow:

1. setting binding emission standards fordeveloping countries;

2. achieving flexibility to find cost-effectivesolutions;

3. ensuring that developing countriesparticipate in emissions reductions;

4. preparing a balanced plan of actionbetween environmental concerns andeconomic development;

5. notwithstanding the previous directive,preserving the current economic growth;

6. finding the flexibility to use marketsolutions rather than regulations to solveenvironmental problems; and

7. using science and technology to providesolutions.

Michael Hall, Director of the Office of GlobalPrograms at the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA), stressedthe need for an ongoing dialogue amongscientists, the public, and bureaucrats aboutclimate-change impacts. He suggested thatwhile there should be a national response toglobal climate change, there also should be ashift from a global to a regional or local focus interms of research to study the impacts of climatechange.

Wilson Orr, Director of Advanced TechnologySystems for the City of Scottsdale, AZ (presently

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Director of the Global Change and SustainabilityProgram at Prescott College), echoed the needto think about the occurrence of global change inlocal places and of the need for communicationbetween scientists and the public.

Topical Presentations

Following these opening remarks, seven plenaryspeakers were charged with answering severalkey questions. These presentations aresummarized in subsequent chapters.

• Diana Liverman, Director, Latin AmericanArea Center and Associate Professor ofGeography, The University of Arizona:

How does climate affect human activity andthe economy of the Southwest?

Liverman's presentation forms the basis forChapter 5, "Trends and Issues in theSouthwest."

• Thomas Swetnam, Associate Professor,Laboratory for Tree-Ring Research, TheUniversity of Arizona:

How unusual is the Southwest’s climate thiscentury compared with that in the past?

• Robert Quayle, Deputy Director,NOAA/National Climatic Data Center,Asheville, NC:

What is the evidence that climate ischanging? What do we know about recentclimate trends in the Southwest?

• Daniel Cayan, Director, El Niño PredictionCenter, Scripps Institution of Oceanography,La Jolla, CA:

How does El Niño affect the climate of theSouthwest?

• Soroosh Sorooshian, Professor ofHydrology and Water Resources, TheUniversity of Arizona:

How does climate affect surface water andgroundwater supply in the Southwest?

The presentations by Swetnam, Quayle,Cayan, and Sorooshian provide the basis formaterial in Chapter 6, "Climate Patterns andTrends in the Southwest."

• Robert Dickinson, Regents Professor ofAtmospheric Physics, Hydrology and WaterResources, and Tree-Ring Research, TheUniversity of Arizona:

What do we know about the likely climate ofthe future?

• Linda Mearns, Scientist, Environmental andSocial Impacts Group, National Center forAtmospheric Research, Boulder, CO:

What are the likely future impacts of climatevariations and changes on society, theeconomy, and the environment?

The presentations by Dickinson and Mearnsprovide core material for Chapter 7, "FutureClimate of the Southwest."

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CHAPTER 5SOUTHWEST REGIONAL OVERVIEW

Diana M. Liverman, DirectorLatin American Area Center and

Associate Professor of GeographyThe University of Arizona

Tucson, AZ

Environmental Stresses and SocialConcerns in the Southwest

Certain social and economic trends andenvironmental conditions make the Southwestespecially vulnerable to climate change:

• The region is experiencing rapid populationand economic growth, with tourism,development, retail, and other servicesectors now making up much of the regionaleconomy.

• An assured water supply is essential formunicipal and industrial users and, to acertain extent, for irrigated agriculture andnatural ecosystems (such as riparianvegetation and wildlife).

• The ranching, non-irrigated agriculture, andforestry sectors are dependent on theamount of soil moisture and the timing ofrainfall.

• The restructuring of agriculture, due in partto global economic forces, is shifting thetypes of crops grown. In many cases, thenew crop mix is much more water intensive. In other areas, agricultural land is beingconverted into urban developments.

• Intense differences in values and politicalconflicts exist over the use of land and waterin the region, with disputes arising overlocal-versus federal-land ownership andcontrol, resource use versus conservationand protection, and urban lifestyles versusrural livelihoods.

• Unresolved water rights for Native Americantribes and binational treaty obligations withMexico pose unique institutional challengesor uncertainties in the region to managewater and other natural resources.

• Differences in income and access to otherfinancial or institutional resources makesome segments of the society in regionmore vulnerable than are others to climatevariations and change.

The rest of the chapter provides asocioeconomic profile of the Southwest andshows how each of these activities is affected byor vulnerable to climate change.

Economy

The economies of both Arizona and New Mexicoare expanding relatively rapidly and aredominated by the service, retail, and governmentsectors. At first glance, these activities seemmuch less vulnerable to climatic variations suchas drought than sectors such as agriculture,forestry, or industrial resource extraction.

Yet complex economic linkages both within andoutside the region are such that impacts in onesector often affect others.

For example, heatwaves, floods, prolongeddroughts, and snowstorms may affect crops,roadways, bridges, and other infrastructure, butalso may change energy demand, alter retailsales, or increase insurance claims or hospitaladmissions in ways that affect service and retailsectors.

Key points

• The economies of Arizona and New Mexicoare growing faster than most other states.

• Services and retailing are the largest sectorsof the Southwest economy.

• More than 75 percent of employees work insales, services, or government.

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• Severe and prolonged climate events canhave a significant direct impact on keyeconomic sectors, as well as an indirectimpact on related areas.

Lifestyle

It is important to remember that our climate hasmade positive contributions to the lifestyle andgrowth of the Southwest, attracting migrants andtourists, and enabling productive agriculture. Along the way, we have adapted to the stressesof a hot, dry climate through irrigation, airconditioning, and housing design.

The Southwest may provide a model for the restof the country to adapt to global warming. Butwe must not forget that our adaptations havecome at a cost--in the water transfers, energydemands, and environmental modifications thattransformed the desert--and in some cases wemay be reaching the limits of our adaptivecapabilities.

Many have called for the adoption of more long-term and sustainable strategies, such asincreasing reliance on solar energy, increasingenergy efficiency, and decreasing per capitawater use.

Key points

• The warm climate has attracted people tothe Southwest and is an important draw forcorporations, retirees, and tourists.

• In some ways the Southwest has alreadyadapted to the warmer, drier, and moreextreme climates that could be a result ofglobal warming.

• Adaptations include large-scale watertransfers and air conditioning, but these canbe costly in terms of federal subsidies,environmental impacts, and individual waterand energy bills.

• New, more sustainable strategies areneeded to assure a high-quality lifestyle forthe current population and futuregenerations.

Land Use

Geographical patterns of vulnerability to climaticvariation are suggested by the overall patternand structure of land and water use in theSouthwest.

As shown in Figure 5.1, nearly two-thirds of theland in both Arizona and New Mexico is used forranching, and a quarter is in forests or parks. Both of these sectors depend on the soilmoisture provided by rain and snow.

Hence, significant climatic changes (e.g. anextended drought) potentially can have a majorimpact over a large area of the Southwest. Irrigated cropland and urban settlements, whileoccupying relatively small areas, are vulnerabledue to their heavy reliance on the delivery of

groundwater or surface water supplies.

Key Points

• Pasture, forests, and parks occupy morethan 90 percent of the land in Arizona andNew Mexico.

• Ecosystems and human activities associatedwith these areas are particularly vulnerableto extended droughts and may be affectedsignificantly by ecological changes resultingfrom long-term climate change.

Water Use

Though relatively small in its land use, irrigatedagriculture--as shown in Figure 5.2--is by far themost extensive user of water in the Southwest.

Pasture (62)

Forest (20)

Cropland (3)

Urban (2)

Other (1)

Defense (4)Parks and Wildlife (7)

Planted Pasture (1)

Figure 5.1. Land Use in the Southwest (Percent)

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Municipal use is of growing but of secondaryimportance.

Vulnerability to climate is mediated by the rivers,surface reservoirs, and groundwater aquifersthat supply most of the water for the region. Butmany aquifers are being mined and are onlypartly replenished by precipitation.

Hot, dry conditions bring on rapidevapotranspiration from crops and surfacesupplies.

Key points

• Irrigated agriculture is by far the largest userof water in the Southwest.

• Presently, water supplies in the Southwestare about 50 percent surface water and 50percent groundwater.

• More groundwater is being pumped thanreplenished in most regions.

• Municipal water use is increasing with rapidlygrowing populations and economicdevelopment.

Colorado River and Rio Grande

The Colorado River (Figure 5.3, Plate 2) and theRio Grande (Figure 5.4, Plate 2) have beencalled the lifeblood of the Southwest. Rights totheir water have been fully allocated betweennations, states, and different water users.Large fluctuations in year-to-year flows in the

rivers or their tributaries (Figure 5.5, Plate 2)--caused mainly by climatic variations--createsstresses for watermanagement institutions andconflict between users.

Understanding variations and potential changesin the flows of these rivers is critical for waterresources, energy and ecosystem managementin our region.

Key points

• The Colorado River and the Rio Grandesystems are the most important surfacewater supplies in the Southwest. Rights tothe flows are fully allocated.

• Flow in these basins varies from year to yearespecially in relation to snow conditions inthe upper parts of the basins. For example,in 1983, the Colorado River’s annual flowwas over 22 million acre feet (MAF), while in1954, it was just slightly more than 10 MAF.

• International treaties divide flows withMexico and domestic interstate compactsallocate flow between the U.S. states. Theallocations stipulated in these agreements,particularly for the Colorado River, werebased on periods of unusually high flow. Under present climatic conditions, the flowsare inadequate to meet all potentialallocations. Climate variability and changemay threaten these international andinterstate management arrangements ifflows become further reduced.

Agriculture and Water

As mentioned earlier, irrigated agriculture usesmore water than any other sector, only a portionof which is returned to the system. In hot, dryyears, water supplies are limited yet cropsrequire more water to survive.

In Arizona, irrigators are accumulating watercredits for water rights they own but do not usebecause of low crop prices. Institutionalchanges may mean that farmers can sell theserights to the municipal sector and that as aresult, overall water demand may level off oreven decline. This could reduce climaticvulnerability.

Agriculture (84)

Commercial& Industry (1)

Ranching (1)

Mining (3)Municipal (11)

Figure 5.2. Southwest Water Use (Percent)

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Key points

• Irrigation is necessary for most cropproduction in the Southwest, and agricultureis a major water user and holder of waterrights.

• Over half the water withdrawn for irrigation isconsumed through evapotranspiration or isincorporated into crops, 17 percent is lost byevaporation from lakes and canals or fromleaks, and only 29 percent returns tostreams or groundwater.

• Climatic variations influence water supplies.High temperatures increase crop waterdemands.

• Land and water are shifting away fromagricultural to urban use.

Urban Water Use

In the Southwest--where most of the populationdwells in urban areas--populations are growingvery rapidly, and municipal water use isexpected to grow at least 20 percent by 2040.

Water use varies considerably between cities asa result of urban design and individual behavior. Figure 5.6 shows a dramatic difference in percapita water use between, for example, SantaFe and Las Vegas.

Urban demands also vary seasonally due toclimate and other conditions, with the greatestdemand in summer months. Could climatechange limit urban development in theSouthwest?

Key points

• Urban populations are growing rapidly in theSouthwest, at rates greater than threepercent per year.

• Water use per capita varies considerably bycommunity.

• Water use also varies seasonally, with peakdemand in the summer months.

• Urban water demand is increasing and isexpected to grow at least 20 percent by2040.

Water Use in Indian Country

Resources on tribal lands have been severelyaffected by recent droughts. For example, theSan Carlos Apache tribe had to deal with thedrying up of a major reservoir and the resultingloss of income, such as from reduced fishingand water-recreation fees.

Water use is increasing on many reservations,and if water rights are settled further increaseswill be possible. Several groups plan to expandirrigated agriculture as illustrated by this datafrom the Arizona Department of WaterResources.

How vulnerable will these new irrigated areas beto climatic variation ? Will the transfer of rightsincrease drought impacts for other sectors ?

Key points

• Agriculture, water supplies, and health arevulnerable to climate change on tribal landsin the Southwest.

• Settlement of Indian water right claims (inArizona, about 3.1 million acre-feet) willincrease overall water demand and shiftdrought vulnerabilities.

Climate Extremes: Floods

Variations in year-to-year precipitation and stormseverity can cause serious flooding in theSouthwest, particularly during the summermonsoons and spring snowmelt (Table 5.1).

Figure 5.6. Daily Municipal Water Use (gallons per capita)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Santa

Fe

Tucso

n

El Pas

o

Phoen

ix

Albuqu

erqu

e

Las V

egas

17

During the summer of 1997, several flood-related deaths and major economic lossesoccurred in the region. Nationally, floods costbillions of dollars in insurance and personallosses, and in federal, state and privateemergency relief. Insurance companies are veryconcerned about climate change.

Severe floods and droughts have often affectedup to 40 percent of the area of the Southwest(see Figure 6.4 in next chapter).

FLOODS IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO

YEAR STATE AREA AFFECTED1862 AZ Gila and Colorado Rivers1891 AZ Central Highlands1904 NM N, E, and NE parts of state1905 AZ San Francisco - Verde Rivers1916 AZ Central Highlands1921 AZ Phoenix (Cave Creek)1926 AZ San Pedro River1927 NM Animas and San Juan Rivers1941 AZ Central1941 NM Central (S, SW, and SE)1942 NM Rio Grande1942 NM Canadian and Pecos Rivers1962 AZ Brawley/Santa Rosa Washes1965 NM N, NE, and SE parts of state1966 AZ Verde, Salt, & Gila Rivers1966 AZ Grand Canyon - SW Utah1970 AZ Tonto Cr. - Hassayampa R.1972 AZ Upper Gila River1974 AZ Safford/Holyoke Wash1977 AZ Central and SE part of state1978 NM Gila River1978 AZ Central part of state1979 AZ SE part of state1981 AZ Tucson area1983 AZ Colorado River1983 AZ Santa Cruz/San Francisco R.1988 NM Vermejo River1993 AZ Gila River/SW part of state

Table 5.1. Chronology of major and othermemorable floods in Arizona and NewMexico (from Paulson et al., 1989)

Climate Extremes: Drought

While several significant droughts have occurredduring the past century or so, we only have tolook at the summer of 1996 to see some of theimpacts of drought in the Southwest. Newsarticles document the losses on ranches, triballands, and forests as the soil and wells dried up:

• In 1996, severe drought devastated farmsand ranches in Arizona and New Mexico.

• The impact of drought on tribal lands wasespecially serious. The San Carlos reservoirnortheast of Phoenix dropped to 25 percentof its volume.

DROUGHT IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO

YEAR STATE AREA AFFECTED1931-41 NM Moderate conditions in isolated

areas in SW and N mountains;severe conditions elsewhere.

1932-36 AZ Statewide--effects differed amongbasins.

1942-79 NM Moderate conditions in NE andNW; severe conditions elsewhere.

1942-64 AZ Statewide--second most severe in350 years.

1973-77 AZ Statewide, but most severe ineastern part of state.

1995-96 NM/AZ Statewide

Table 5.2. Chronology of major and othermemorable droughts in Arizona and NewMexico (from Paulson et al., 1989)

Ranching

The recent (1995-96) drought also highlightedthe vulnerability of ranching to climatic variations.Cattle sales increased (Figure 5.7) and severalranches went out of business as rangelands andwells dried out and feed costs soared.

But factors other than local climate havecontributed to the problems of the ranchingsector. Global grain reserves were low,contributing to high feed prices, and a multiyeardrought in Mexico overwhelmed border marketswith low-priced stock.

Key points

Figure 5.7. Arizona Ranching Statistics

0

10

20

30

40

50

1993 1994 1995 1996

Heads Sold

Number ofOperations

18

• Ranching by nature is particularly vulnerableto drought.

• In 1996, ranchers in Arizona and NewMexico faced drought, dry wells, high feedprices and low stock prices when they triedto sell.

• External factors such as low global grainreserves and drought in Mexico increasedthe vulnerability of the ranching sector inArizona, New Mexico, and other U.S. states.

• Some smaller ranches (i.e., with fewer than50 head) went out of business during thistime period.

Energy

Another climate-sensitive sector is energy, withboth supply and demand varying with climate. Hydroelectric supplies are clearly the mostclimate sensitive. Overall electricity demandvaries with seasons and from year to year(Figure 5.8).

Extreme events can cut power supplies, and it isimportant to remember that many people cannotafford to heat or cool their homes properly.

Tucson Residential Energy Demand

8000

8250

8500

8750

9000

9250

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

KWH

0

450

900

1350

1800

Residential Use Cooling Degree Days

Figure 5.8. Tucson, Arizona, residentialenergy demand

Key points

• Hydroelectric generation is very dependenton climate.

• Energy consumption also varies seasonally

and interannually according to temperatures.

• Heatwaves and severe storms can disruptpower supplies.

• Those who cannot afford to pay for heatingand air conditioning may suffer cold and heatstress-related illness and mortality.

Forest Fires

Another highly sensitive sector is forestry, wheredroughts cause economic and ecologicaldamage. This too has been illustrated by severefires and high economic costs of losses and firefighting in recent years.

Fire frequency is influenced by climate variabilitybut also by management decisions such as firesuppression and forest-access policies.

Low

Medium

High

Fire Severity - July 1994

Key points

• Droughts increase fire potential by creatingtinder-dry forests.

• Fire potential also depends on how forestsare managed.

• Extreme fire danger ratings may closeforests to users and force fire crews tosuppress fires, countering ecosystemmanagement principles.

• The U.S. Forest Service has allocated $36million for fire management in 1998 in theSouthwest.

19

Recreation and Tourism

Recreation and tourism are very important to theeconomy and to the lifestyle of the Southwest.Many climatic factors are important, includingsnowfall, river flows, irrigated landscapemaintenance, and heat stress.

A variety of tourist enterprises is affected byclimate variability and could be impacted byclimate change. These include skiing, rafting,and bird watching,

Key points

• The warm climate of the Southwest offersmany recreation opportunities.

• Climate change could affect many activitiesby reducing river flow for white-water raftingand water for irrigating golf courses.

• The number of bird species and thus birdwatchers could decline if habitats arealtered.

• Changing snowfall patterns would affect theski industry.

These are just some of the ways in whichclimate affects society and economy in theSouthwest. The climate sensitivities and impactsprovide an important reason for trying tounderstand better what is happening to ourclimate and for finding ways to better use climateinformation in our planning and decisions.

Sources

Dettinger, Michael D. 1997. Coping With Severeand Sustained Drought in theSouthwest. From online USGS WebWorkshop (geochange.er.usgs.gov).

Diaz, Henry F., and Craig A. Anderson. 1997.Precipitation Trends and WaterConsumption in the SouthwesternUnited States. From online USGS WebWorkshop (geochange.er.usgs.gov).

Paulson, R.W., E.B. Chase, R. S. Roberts, andD. W. Compilers. 1989. National WaterSummary 1988-89: Hydrologic Eventsand Floods and Droughts. U.S.Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper2375, 591p.

20

21

CHAPTER 6CLIMATE PATTERNS AND TRENDS IN THE SOUTHWEST

Roger C. Bales, Interim DirectorInstitute for the Study of Planet Earth and

Professor of Hydrology and Water ResourcesThe University of Arizona

andDiana M. Liverman, Director

Latin American Area Center andAssociate Professor of Geography

The University of ArizonaTucson, AZ

Long-term Historical Patterns

Climate records for the Southwest have beenkept since the turn of the century. However, it ispossible to reconstruct the region's climatic pastback to the late 1500s using dendrochronologystudies.

Tree-ring growth is related to climate, with smallring growth indicating stress conditions (e.g.,hotter and drier) and larger rings indicatingcooler, wetter periods. While tree-ring growthcannot provide an exact reconstruction of rainfalltotals, there is a significant correlation betweengrowth and precipitation (r = 0.80).

These studies have revealed the complex andcyclical nature of past climate in the Southwest,including the pattern of the El Niño-SouthernOscillation (ENSO) (Swetnam and Betancourt,1992). Figure 6.1 illustrates the reconstructedaverage tree-ring growth in the Southwest datingback to the year 1000.

Figure 6.1. Tree-ring width index for the pastthousand years in the Southwest (Swetnamand Betancourt, 1992)

The historical pattern of the pattern of the ElNiño-Southern Oscillation can be seen in tree-

ring growth. The periods from 1740 to 1780 andfrom 1830 to 1860 were abnormally wet yearswith large tree-ring growth. The interstitial period(1780 to 1830) was a dry period in theSouthwest. Table 6.1 summarizes the extremehistorical drought events based ondendrochronology research.

TimePeriod

Average AnnualPrecipitation

Duration(in years)

1271-1296

7.88 in. 25

1571-1587

7.60 in. 17

1666-1674

6.95 in. 9

Table 6.1. Extreme historical drought eventsas reconstructed from tree-ring growths

The first drought period is called the GreatDrought by anthropologists and is linked to thedisappearance of several indigenous tribes inthe Southwest. The third drought is mentioned inthe archives of the Spanish explorers in thearea. Table 6.2 provides an overview of extremehistorical wet events.

TimePeriod

Average AnnualPrecipitation

Duration(in years)

1100-1120

10.97 in. 21

1800-1816

12.24 in. 17

Table 6.2. Extreme historical wet periods asreconstructed from tree-ring growths

22

Current Climatology

Records of the more recent past also show thatthe Southwest has experienced large seasonal,year-to-year, and decade-to-decade climatefluctuations. For Tucson, the July maximumtemperatures and rainfall for the 1961-1990period show a large year-to-year variation(Figure 6.2, Plate 3).

Although many parts of the Southwest receivethe majority of their precipitation from thesummer monsoons, wintertime precipitationprovides most of the annual runoff for the region.

Winter precipitation is considerably morevariable than summertime precipitation, most ofthe latter being lost to evaporation (Figure 6.3).

Figure 6.3. Seasonal precipitation patterns intwo climate divisions for the Southwest

The impacts of climate variability are alsoillustrated by Figure 6.4 (Plate 3), which showsthat significant areas of the Southwest areaffected by moderate to severe drought or wetconditions every year.

The droughts of the 1930s and 1950s areevident. These graphs show no distinct changesin the frequency or extent of severe events.

Are there any systematic patterns or trends insouthwestern climate? Figure 6.5 shows annualrunoff in the Salt, Tonto, and Verde rivers withhigh climate variability but no distinct trend.

Figure 6.5. Annual flow of the Salt, Tonto,and Verde rivers in Arizona (Keane, 1991)

Longer-term reconstruction of Colorado Riverflows, based on tree ring records, show decade-long fluctuations associated with sustained wetand dry periods in the Southwest (Figure 6.6,Plate 3). In Arizona, the period since 1960 showsa lower daily temperature range (the differencebetween the daily maximum and minimumtemperatures) for Arizona than for the periodprior to 1960. The difference is about 2.5° (F) inthe autumn and 1.4° (F) over the year. Thisannual change is due to a 1.0° (F) increase indaily minimum temperatures and a 0.4° (F) dropin daily maximum temperature, and may beexplained mainly by an increase in cloud coverover the same period (W. Sellers, pers. comm.).

Analysis of climate records for the last centuryfor a broader region to include Arizona, NewMexico, Nevada and Utah (Figure 6.7) suggeststhat there has been a slight increase in bothmaximum and minimum temperature, but nodetectable change in precipitation since the turnof the century.

Figure 6.7. Trends in mean annualtemperature (MEAN) and annual precipitation(PCP) for the Southwest, 1901-96 (Quayle1997)

23

Fluctuations in Pacific sea surface temperatures(SST) and atmospheric conditions known as the ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influenceclimate and its variability in the Southwest. WhenSSTs are warm (El Niño), the Southwest oftenexperiences relatively wet winters, with highersnow pack and water year stream flows. Coolerevents are sometimes associated with droughts(Figure 6.8).

Figure 6.8. The ENSO monthly index since1950

Values in Figure 6.8 above zero are warm seasurface temperature events, below are coldevents (NOAA Web site).

Improved understanding now allows predictionsof the climatic effects of El Niño and itsinfluences up to one year in advance in manyregions of the world. For example, climate-model simulations of monthly precipitation in theSouthwest indicate that El Niño years have about66 percent more precipitation than other (orcontrol) years (Figure 6.9). Forecasts indicateboth the evolution of sea surface temperaturesand the probability of seasonal climateconditions. The following page shows someforecasts for the current El Niño.

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

mm/m

onth

NiñoControl

Figure 6.9. Modeling of precipitation(University of Arizona Department of

Hydrology and Water Resources, 1997)The current ENSO event (1997-98) is one of themore intense of recent decades (Figure 6.10,Plate 4). It intensified through the autumn andwinter of 1997 and faded out during summer1998(Figure 6.11, Plate 4).

Using knowledge of El Niño, scientists forecast awetter 1997-98 winter for the Southwest. RecentENSO information is available at the NOAA Website ( www.ogp.noaa.gov/enso ).

Analysis of Recent Trends

While precipitation in the Southwest continues tofluctuate over a several-year cycle, average dailytemperature has increased. In addition, theaverage daily minimum temperature hasincreased more than the maximum temperature.

As a result, the diurnal temperature range indecreasing, which could have implications forsuch sectors as agriculture and rangelands.

The 1980s and 1990s have been climaticanomalies. Concerns about greenhouse gasemissions and global warming have promptedscientists to investigate the link between theseconcerns and the recent anomalies.

While we cannot claim that global warming hascaused any single climate event, we do note thatthe frequency of extreme events is increasing.

Sources

Diaz, H.F., and Anderson, C.A. 1995.Precipitation trends and water consumptionrelated to population in the southwesternUnited States: A reassessment. WaterResources Research.31: 713-20.

Dettinger, M. 1997. Coping with severe andsustained drought in the Southwest. Onlinepaper for the USGS Web Workshop(geochange.er.usgs.gov).

Giorgi, F., C.S. Brodeur and G.T. Bates. 1994.Regional climate change scenarios over theUnited States produced with a nestedregional climate model. Journal of Climate7(3): 375-99.

24

Keane, J. 1991. Managing water supplyvariability: The Salt River Project. InManaging Water Resources in the Westunder Conditions of Climate Uncertainty.National Academy Press, pp. 303-23.

Meko, D, C. W. Stockton, and W. R. Boggess.1995. The Tree-ring record of severesustained drought. Water Resources Bulletin31(5).

Swetnam, T., and J. Betancourt. 1992. Temporal

patterns of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation--wildfire patterns in the southwestern UnitedStates. In El Niño: Historical andPaleoclimatic Aspects of the SouthernOscillation, H. F. Diaz and V. M. Margraf,eds., Cambridge University Press, pp. 259-70.

Quayle, R. 1997. NOAA National Climate DataCenter, Asheville, NC.

25

CHAPTER 7FUTURE CLIMATE OF THE SOUTHWEST

Diana M. Liverman, DirectorLatin American Area Center and

Associate Professor of GeographyThe University of Arizona

andRoger C. Bales, Interim Director

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth andProfessor of Hydrology and Water Resources


How might global warming affect the Southwest?Many scenarios for climate change are based onthe results of General Circulation Models(GCMs)--complex computer models of theearth's atmospheric circulation that are used tosimulate how climate may change if greenhousegases continue to rise.

One of the most recent simulations is thatconducted by the U.K. Hadley Center, whichincludes a slow rise in carbon dioxideconcentrations (called a transient scenario) andalso takes into account the role of sulfuraerosols in cooling some regions.

The maps show the scenarios for the middle ofthe next century for changes in temperature(TEMP) and precipitation (PRECIP) for winterand summer in the Southwest (Figure 7.1, Plate4).

The Hadley Center GCM suggests thattemperatures in the Southwest will increase byabout 5-9° F in both winter and summer as aresult of increasing greenhouse-gasconcentrations in the atmosphere. The HadleyCenter results can be found at the Project LINKWeb site (www.cru.uea.ac.uk/link/).

The scenario suggests that winter and summerprecipitation will increase in the U.S., but winterprecipitation will decrease in much of Mexico. This scenario is consistent with the results ofmost of the models used by theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC), which project increases temperaturesand changes in precipitation patterns with adoubling or more of greenhouse-gasconcentrations in the atmosphere.

There are a number of important limitations inusing climate models to create scenarios forregional climate change associated with globalwarming. For example, the maps in Figure 7.1(Plate 4) illustrate the coarseness of the gridused to run many of the models.

Regional scenarios have been simulated using"nested" models where a model more sensitiveto regional topography and climatology is run inconjunction with a GCM.

For example, the RegCM model, a nestedregional climate model, was used in conjunctionwith the National Center for AtmosphericResearch's Community Climate Model (a GCM)to produce scenarios for temperature andprecipitation changes under a doubling of CO2

scenario for midwestern and western UnitedStates (Giorgi et al. 1998).

Figures 7.2 and 7.3 show the model's simulationof temperature and precipitation changes(compared with the model's simulation of currentconditions) for winter and summer conditions.

The model suggests for the Southwest, adecrease in winter monthly and in summerprecipitation. Average temperatures areprojected to rise up to 4°C (7°F).

Thus, a plausible scenario for how globalwarming might affect the climate of Arizona andNew Mexico would include:

• An increase in annual average temperatureof 5-7°F.

• More extremely hot days and fewer cold

26

days.• A decrease in winter precipitation.

• A decrease in summer precipitation.

• A decrease in the daily temperature range(due to higher average nighttimetemperatures).

However, there are many critical uncertaintiesand unknowns:

• The magnitude of precipitation change is stillvery uncertain because current models notaccurately simulate the complex topographyof the Southwest or the summer monsoons.

• The changes in the frequency and intensityof extreme events such as storms are veryuncertain. There are some indications thatstorms will be more intense in summer.

• We do not know what will happen to El Niñoin a warmer world.

• Paleoclimatic studies tell us that the climateand ocean circulation sometimes changessuddenly and this possibility is not includedin the models.

• We do not know if trends in human activityand policies will increase or decrease theemissions of greenhouse gases.

Sources

Giorgi, F., L. Mearns, C. Shields, and L.McDaniel. 1998. Regional Nested ModelSimulations of Present Day and 2xCO2 ClimateOver the Central Plains of the U.S., ClimaticChange (in press).

27

Figure 7.2 Results of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's RegCM nested regionalclimate model showing simulated changes in temperature (2xCO2 vs. present-day conditions) forwinter (above) and summer (below) in the Southwest (from Giorgi et al. 1998)

28

Figure 7.3 Results of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's RegCM nested regionalclimate model showing simulated changes in precipitation (2xCO2 vs. present-day conditions) forwinter (above) and summer (below) in the Southwest (from Giorgi et al. 1998)

29

CHAPTER 8PANEL PRESENTATIONS

Mark Patterson, Graduate Research Associateand



Tucson, AZ

Following the plenary presentations, a series ofspeakers provided statements and commentsrelated to six sectors: municipal water, naturalecosystems, ranching and agriculture,environmental quality and health, energyproduction and use, and the U.S.-Mexico borderregion and Indian Country. Summaries of thesepanel presentations are provided below.

Panel 1: Municipal Water

Thomas Maddock III, Department of Hydrology& Water Resources, The University of Arizona(Moderator)

Dallas Reigle, Salt River Project, Phoenix, AZ.

Climate variability affects reservoir operationsthrough increases or decreases in supply. Sincerecords have been kept, there have been moreyears of below-normal flow than of above-normalflow. This affects both delivery of water as wellas power production.

The Salt River Project (SRP) experience is thatdry periods tend to last about five years. Municipal water supplies need to be augmentedduring those periods with groundwater. Lookingat the period from 1941 to 1966, there was noexcess water available for urban demand. Morerecently, in 1997, water supplies were also belownormal.

Katherine Jacobs, Arizona Department ofWater Resources, Tucson, AZ.

There is a need in the Tucson area to eliminategroundwater overdraft, but population (demand)is increasing. One of the goals of the ArizonaDepartment of Water Resources is to balance

supply and demand. Water from the CentralArizona Project (surface water diverted from theColorado River) was intended to be a primarywater source for Tucson and to meet demandand offset overusage of groundwater resources.

Despite the rejection of this source of surface-water supply by the voters of Tucson, there isstill a need to increase use of renewable watersupplies and decrease use of non-renewablesupplies. California places a much higherpriority on Colorado River water than doesArizona. Water shortages are expected to occur35 percent of the time in the future.

Water banks, for example, can be established totake advantage of periods of abundance. Weneed to get away from policies that force societyto use renewable water.

Scott Chaplin, Rocky Mountain Institute,Snowmass, CO.

Government regulations and economic andpopulation concerns are identified by watermanagers as key issues, but climate change isnot. The old way of dealing with uncertainty wasto build dams and canals.

Now decentralized solutions such as recharge,contour plowing, sewer mining, dry wells,rainwater collection, xeriscaping and closed-loopsystems are being implemented to reduce waterconsumption. Water use is decreasing in allsectors except for the urban sector.

Arthur Flagg, Rio Rico Properties, Rio Rico, AZ.

Dependable water supplies are very important todevelopers, and climate change is a wildcard. Developers face two options: to build or not to

30

build, and this is often determined by theavailability of water supplies.

Charles McHugh, Arizona DisasterManagement, Phoenix, AZ.

Floods are the most damaging and most costlyhazards. In 1993, flooding caused $200 millionin damages. What can be done to mitigate thisproblem? There is a need for non-structuralsolutions to reduce floods, such as throughzoning codes and through providing informationabout climate trends, population demand forwater supplies, and flooding potential.

Panel 2: Natural Ecosystems

David Goodrich, USDA Agricultural ResearchService, Tucson, AZ (Moderator).

Julio Betancourt, Desert Research Laboratory,U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ.

Winter precipitation in Tucson and Las Cruces,NM, is highly variable. The 1940s and 1980swere very wet, but the 1950s saw one of theworst droughts in the recorded history of theregion. Large vegetation recruitment eventsoccur in post-drought periods, as do increases incattle.

Do improved ranges result from managementpractices or climate variability? The introductionof non-native grass species has led to anincrease in fire frequency. If a 1950s-typedrought were to occur in the Southwest today,water shortage would halt urban growth,immigration from northern Mexico wouldincrease, and cattle grazing would require publicsubsidies.

Richard Young, The Nature Conservancy,Tucson, AZ

The primary goal of The Nature Conservancy isto protect and to preserve all plant and animalspecies. But The Nature Conservancy relies oninformation from the scientific community to helpformulate its policies. Information from scientistsis used to develop preservation strategies, adaptmanagement plans, and conduct daily business.

But cultural practices such as fire, interventionwith the hydrologic cycle, and livestock grazingalso alter habitat. Climate variability hasimportant implications for The NatureConservancy because it is not site specific.Increase in climate variability leads to anincrease in habitat loss.

Presently, The Nature Conservancy does notconsider climate change a factor. Clearly TheNature Conservancy needs to incorporateclimate change into management plans.

Laura Huenneke, Department of Biology, NewMexico State University, Las Cruces, NM.

What are the climatic influences in the desertand semi-deserts of the Southwest? Theecosystem of the Southwest provides manyservices and assists in such sectors as ranching,tourism, and recreation and the reduction of dusttransportation and soil erosion. The few riparianareas in the Southwest are critical formaintaining biodiversity.

Desert organisms represent extremes inadaptation. Organisms that rely on reservesexhibit ephemeral behavior. Growth andproductivity of organisms are linked toprecipitation and to nutrient availability.

Carbon dioxide increases lead to more efficientwater use in plants, but increases in temperatureassociated with a rise in CO2 could lead to plantreduction. Other potential climate-changerelationships include increases in rainfall that willlead to a decrease in ant and rodent population.

Plant productivity is tracked by animalpopulations with a 1-2 year time lag. Someclimatic effects are hard to predict. Researchersdo not fully understand the interactions amongthese relationships. Sampling in the desert isdifficult because of climatic variability.Researchers need long-term data.

Panel 3: Ranching and Agriculture

Kirk Emerson, Udall Center for Studies in PublicPolicy, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ(Moderator).Jerry Holechek, Department of Animal andRange Sciences, New Mexico State University,Las Cruces, NM.

31

How can we manage stocking rates to achieverange-resource goals? Survival in the ranchingindustry relies on managing risk. There are fourtypes of risk faced by ranchers: climatic,financial, political, and biological. By examiningclimate record in New Mexico it becomes evidentthat there are distinct patterns concerningclimatic risk or climate change.

Drought in the Southwest is somewhatpredictable and clustered, and climate alternatesbetween wet and dry periods about every 20years. Drought and low cattle prices coincide. The last 20 years have been 27 percent wetterthan normal.

To facilitate continuing cattle production, plantresidue is the key. Ranchers need to leave two-thirds of the plants and grass on their lands toensure reproduction. Grazing managementgreatly impacts vegetation cover and soilerosion.

Grazed areas tend to be healthier than ungrazedareas if managed properly in drought conditions.

Diana Hadley, Arizona State Museum, TheUniversity of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.

Since the late 1800s, there have been fiveperiods of drought in the US Southwest, 1885-1902, 1918-1922, 1933-34, 1955-60 and 1975-77. During the first three drought periods, publicland laws encouraging overstocking of cattle ledto negative impacts on the environment.

In the first half of the century there were noguidelines for sustainability and prescribedstocking rates. Moreover, the national cattlemarket at the time was based on quantity, notquality. The responses to drought since the1950s have been to feed cattle nativevegetation, yet cattle number still continued torise. By 1990 there was a massive sell-off asranchers began to recognize the impacts ofgrazing practices on the land.

Terry Wheeler, Rancher, Globe, AZ.

In the Southwest, proper management of grazinglands can moderate the impacts of climatechange. Current policy and technological fixes

have resulted in negative impacts on the landsuch as soil erosion.

We have traded natural processes fortechnological ones. We need to recognize thattechnology is not a replacement for nature. InArizona the use of cattle to reclaim mine tailinghas proven successful.

Through seeding of tailings and management ofproper grazing levels, ranchers had been able toconvert a once ugly tailing pile into a productivepasture for cattle production. Appropriatelymanaged livestock grazing can promoteecosystem health and diversity.

Panel 4: Environmental Quality andHealth

Timothy Finan, Bureau of Applied Research inAnthropology, The University of Arizona, Tucson,AZ (Moderator).

Andrew Comrie, Department of Geography andRegional Development, The University ofArizona, Tucson, AZ.

Air-quality trends have improved since the 1980sdue to 1970 environmental legislation and theadvent of catalytic converters in most vehicles.But the Southwest population is growing fast,which could impact air quality.

Little research has been done on Southwest airquality and the potential impacts of climatechange, although we know hotter, drier, and lesswindy climates are bad for air pollution. Southwestern cities tend to have similarstructures and thus, generalizations about airquality can be made.

The major pollutants impacting the air quality ofthe southwest are carbon monoxide (CO), ozone(O3), and particulate matter. With respect to CO,cars are the main source for pollution. Forexample, in the Southwest, we average 1.5times gas use per capita than New York City.

The impacts of increased CO emissions will befelt at a more localized scale, such as at roadintersections, and tend to be winter problems,with inversions being more common. Strategiesfor abatement include mandating emission

32

checks, using oxygenated fuels, requiring peopleto drive less and altering traffic patterns toreduce the amount of time that cars spend idling.

Ground-level ozone results from NOx andhydrocarbons reacting with sunlight. Again,vehicles are the primary source for thesechemicals. Ozone, however, is a summerproblem and tends to affect the outskirts of town.

In the next 50 years, urbanization, particularlyalong the Phoenix-Tucson corridor, may lead toserious O3 problems. Abatement strategies arethe same as those for CO. Lastly, particulatematter such as dust and soot tends to be a year-round problem.

Technological fixes for reducing pollution havemore or less run their course, so we need tomodify behavior. For example, car maintenanceis important as older or badly-tuned recentmodel cars can produce 10 times the amount ofCO than new cars.

Several southwestern cities are near non-compliance levels for air quality, which couldresult in a reduction of federal-highway dollarsfor the Southwest. While population has grownin the Southwest, air quality has remainedrelatively constant on a per capita basis. However, climate change may disrupt thisrelationship.

John Balbus, George Washington University,Washington, DC.

Climate change impacts on human health willnot be homogeneous in the Southwest. Rather,human-health impacts are more closelyassociated with climate variability. Extremeclimatic events are more important in regulatingthe occurrence of climate-related diseases.

For example, the mosquito transmitting denguefever (Aedes aegypti) was found in Tucson in1994, a particularly hot summer. But climatealone is not the only factor in the spread of suchdiseases. Other key drivers include breedingsites, population density, and vector-controlprograms.

Climate change may impact the spread ofvector-borne diseases. For example, increase intemperature leads to decrease in mosquito andvirus breeding time and an increase in biting

frequency. But an increase in temperature in theSouthwest may limit mosquitoes. Hanta virus isspread by the inhalation of aerosol rodent fecalmaterial.

In 1993, there was a boom in rodent populationand an increase in human contact. Unusuallyhigh precipitation levels and more contact withwilderness may lead to an increase in hantavirus outbreak.

Ozone also impacts human health. Los Angeleshas the highest photochemical smog levels inthe nation. Climate change will affect reactionrate between NO2 and hydrocarbons thatproduce 03. An increase in temperature leads toan increase in reaction rate. Health effectsstemming from 03 include increase in pulmonaryirritants and increase in sensitivity to allergens.

Paulette Middleton, Science and PolicyAssociates, Boulder, CO.

The primary sources of air pollution in theSouthwest are from fossil-fuel activities such asoperating cars and burning coal to produceelectricity. We have learned from the GrandCanyon Visibility Transport Commission thatsocioeconomic and environmental factors arehighly integrated.

Management plans aimed at improving airquality will require technological fixes andbehavior modification. Such plans should bebased on a 20 to 30-year critical planning timeframe. Communication is the key between theresearcher and the public, and must be a two-way discussion.

Converting issues into dollar values will help thepublic relate to air-quality problems. If we canassign dollar values to problems and issues,they will be more readily entered into ageographic information system (GIS) foranalysis.

Panel 5: Energy Production and Use

Roger Bales, Institute for the Study of PlanetEarth, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ(Moderator).

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C.V. Mathai, Arizona Public Service Company,Phoenix, AZ.

What is the connection bewteen internationalnegotiations, climate change, and utilities? TheRio Summit in 1992 provided no indication ofwhat CO2 level we should aim for. The debateover whether developed and less-developedcountries should differentiate responsibilities forreducing carbon emission has been ongoingsince 1992.

While the developed countries were to adoptmeasures aimed at returning greenhouse gases(GHG) to 1990 levels, the final document fromthe Rio Summit had no teeth. The Berlinmandate (1995) recognized this shortcoming ofthe Rio Summit and called for a jointimplementation for emission reduction.

Put simply, a country can reduce emission froma multinational plant in another country and applythe reduction to home-country figures. However,the Berlin mandate did not include lesser-developed countries.

The Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange's (IPCC) second assessment(December 1995) recognized that human actionsinfluence climate and called for a legally bindingagreement among all countries.

In addition to the IPCC's proposal, there wereseveral other proposal presented includingAOSIS--20 percent reduction in greenhouse-gasemission below 1990 levels by 2005; EuropeanUnion--15 percent reduction by 2010; andAustralia--30 to 40 percent reduction.

The U.S. did not support these proposalsbecause due to concerns over less-developedcountries' emission reduction. The U.S. wantedmaximum flexibility to achieve reduction (i.e.market mechanisms).

Calculations by economists determined pollutionpermits would cost $100 per ton of greenhouse-gas. Other analyses such as the IAT analysissaid reduction in greenhouse-gases to 1990levels would increase the price of energyaccordingly 2¢ per kilowatt hour, $0.26 pergallon of gas, and $1.49 per thousand cubic feetof natural gas.

Prabhu Dayal, Tucson Electric PowerCompany, Tucson, AZ.

In the U.S. 1.6 billion tons of greenhouse gasesare emitted annually, with CO2 accounting for 80percent and methane for 11 percent. Thesectors contributing the largest amounts of greenhouse-gas emissions were industries (34percent) and transportation (32 percent).

Policies geared toward reducing emission affectthe industrial sector more than the transportationsector. At Tucson Electric Power (TEP),electricity generation is 99 percent coal fired,translating into a release of 15 million tons ofCO2 in 1995.

As demand for energy increases, this rate isgrowing by two to three percent per year. In aneffort to reduce CO2 emissions, TEP belongs toEPA’s Climate Challenge Program. Components of this program include supply-sidemanagement, which is looking at the Los Realeslandfill to use methane emission to generateelectricity (EPA landfill methane program) andthe use of solar panels at the old IBM site. TEPis also actively involved in international programsfor carbon sequestration.

For example, Nations Energy in Florida (a TEPsubsidiary) is involved in a biogas program inHonduras to produce 30 Megawatts/year. Thishas already resulted in a reduction of 125,000tons of CO2 per year.

Other programs TEP is involved with include theUtility Forest Carbon Management Program inMalaysia, Belize, Oregon, and Mississippi.

Michael Stenburg, U.S. EnvironmentalProtection Agency-Region 9, San Francisco, CA.

Too often we become involved with the largepicture and fail to focus on small picture orindividual scale. Take the examples of the motorvehicle and lightbulbs. Behavior modification isnecessary if we are to reduction energyconsumption.

As concerned citizens we can reduce energyconsumption by using public transportation,bundling trips, not buying sports-utility vehicles,and changing driving habits. As consumers wecan purchase “green” lightbulbs, such asfluorescent rather than incandescent, and look

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for appliances with the EPA energy starrecognition. We can also look for homes thatare part of the U.S. green builders program.

Panel 6: U.S.-Mexico Border Regionand Indian Country

Robert Varady, Udall Center for Studies inPublic Policy, The University of Arizona, Tucson,AZ (Moderator).

James Enote, Director, Zuni ConservationProject, Zuni, NM.

Indian people in the Southwest have beendealing with floods and drought for thousands ofyears. The belief system of the Indian culture isstill very important to tribes. Mainstream policiesconcerning climate change do not account fortribal belief systems. A simple look at differencesin fiscal and political structures between the twocultures illustrates this point.

While tribal governments are starting to establishwater and air quality standards, non-scientificand empirical observation for hundreds ofgenerations of Indians needs to be tapped tostrengthen policies. The adaptability of tribes tochanging climate is the key to their successfullongevity. Different ways of viewing the worldthrough different knowledge sets is manifestedin our landscapes. For example, most triballands have a greater biodiversity than public andprivate lands.

John Bernal, U.S. Commissioner, InternationalBoundary & Water Commission, El Paso, TX.

Policymakers need to increase public awarenessof climate-change issues and increase publicinvolvement in decisionmaking. Take forexample the allocation of water between the U.S.and Mexico. Policymakers need to be consciousof different political systems and economicpotential between the two nations.

The Rio Grande’s five-year drought has lead tolow reservoir levels. February and March of 1997were very wet months and people began to relaxconcern over reservoir levels, thinking the worstwas over.

However, we cannot lose sight of the larger,long-term picture. In times of plenty, we tend toexpand agriculture land and pay for it in time ofscarcity. In Mexico, water use is less efficientthan in the U.S. The watershed needs to be theunit of analysis rather than that defined bypolitical boundaries. We need to shareinformation between these two political entities.

Roberto Sánchez, Department ofEnvironmental Studies, University of California,Santa Cruz, CA.

Perspectives on climate change are vastlydifferent on each side of the border. Differentsocial, economic, political, and environmentalconditions lead to different vulnerability. Forexample, flooding in San Diego and Tijuana in1993 lead to very different responses.

Attention to the impacts of climate change andvariability tends to focus on short-termconsequences. Dollars are the measure ofdamage in the U.S., which is not necessarily anappropriate measure in Mexico. There isdifficulty in measuring social impacts, especiallyin Mexico where it is difficult to place a dollarvalue on everything. Clearly there is a need forcooperation between the U.S. and Mexico, andbetween scientists and end-users. Forecastsand information need to be such that they can beused by the end user. Decisionmakers need towork toward a long-term perspective of regionalimpact of climate change.

Victor Magaña, Centro de Estudios de laAtmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma deMéxico, México D.F.

Climate researchers in Mexico and the U.S. facecommon meteorological problems. Climatemodels show a lack of disagreement over theimpacts of climate change. Current models suchas NCAR’s CCM3 don’t adequately predictchanges in temperature and precipitation.

However, we can however examine El Niño/LaNiña trends for some answers. El Niño leads toincreases in precipitation in the winter anddecreases in the summer and warmertemperatures, while La Niña leads to more year-round precipitation and cooler temperatures. Climate variability forecasts impact themanagement of reservoir levels.

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PART III

WORKSHOP: SECTORAL ISSUESSEPTEMBER 4, 1997

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CHAPTER 9MUNICIPAL AND INDUSTRIAL WATER RESOURCES

Workshop report prepared by:

Roger Bales, Interim DirectorInstitute for the Study of Planet Earth


Workshop Participants (2 sesions): Roger Bales and Soroosh Sorooshian (facilitators), SteveAbernathy, Margi Brooks, Scott Chaplin, Joy Colucci, R.T. Eby, Bill Erickson, Sandra Henderson, LauraHuenekke, Bisher Imam, R. Klimesh, Roy Koch, Linda Mearns, Claudia Nierenberg, Wilson Orr, AnnPhillips, Dallas Riegle, Carlos Rincon, Marja Shaner, Caitlin Simpson, Tony Socci, Everett Springer,Michael Stenburg, Sheridan Stone, Dennis Sundie, Larry Winter, Andrew Wood, James Young

Impacts and Vulnerabilities

The water resources in the Southwest aresensitive to:

• a shift in average precipitation

• changes in the year-to-year variance inprecipitation

• the magnitude and persistence ofseasonal fluctuations in precipitationamount and timing

• the frequency and intensity of extremestorms

Surface-water supplies are particularlyvulnerable to climate variability and change, bothin timing and amount. Because of relatively shortreservoir-storage times for surface water beforeit is used for municipal and industrial supply,below-average flows of even a few years inlength would have an impact. In periods withreduced availability of water, there would beincreased competition with other sectors (e.g.in-stream uses, agriculture) for the availableflow.

Fluctuations in precipitation have impacts at bothseasonal and interannual time scales. Most ofthe annual runoff is from winter precipitation, andyear-to-year fluctuations in seasonal snowaccumulation translate directly into water-resource availability for municipal use. Theintensity of rain in summer storms has directimpacts through flooding and erosion, while

year-to-year fluctuations in the net seasonalinput of precipitation as rain impact the well-being of agriculture and ecosystems.

Perhaps the climate fluctuation of greatestconcern for the region is when less-than-averageseasonal precipitation is sustained over severalyears.

Spring runoff from snowmelt also provides mostof the groundwater recharge for the region.Though most groundwater supplies are lesssusceptible to climate variability than are surfacewaters, long-term reductions in groundwaterreserves would have several impacts on theregion.

Higher temperatures in the Southwestassociated with climate change would increasewater demand and thus, increase pressure forgreater groundwater withdrawals over the longterm.

Greater climate variability could have a similareffect, as greater withdrawals in dry years wouldprobably not be offset by greater recharge in wetyears, even if facilities were constructed toenhance recharge in wet years.

Some of the direct impacts from greatergroundwater overdraft in the Southwest would beland subsidence, higher costs associated withdeeper wells, and decreasing water quality insome areas as deeper waters are extracted.

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Mitigation of groundwater overdraft could resultin water shortages for some users, andsecondary impacts.These impacts could include:

• costs by business, industry, and otherurban users to either make a transitionto use less water or to pay more forwater;

• loss of water by lower-priority users,such as some landscape irrigation orornamental lakes, or alternatively, coststo switch to reclaimed water use (ifavailable);

• limits on new development in areas thatface the most severe shortages.

A shift to greater reliance on groundwater versussurface-water supplies would also mean thatsome municipal and industrial systems wouldlose some of their current flexibility and havemore constrained and vulnerable systems.

Responses

Many areas of the Southwest already experiencegroundwater overdraft, competition betweensectors for limited supplies, and fluctuations inthe availability of surface water supplies. Thusthe municipal and industrial water sector isalready familiar with a number of possibleresponses to reduced supplies of and increaseddemand for water.

In general, there are two categories ofresponses: increase supplies or reduce demand.

The transfer of water from agricultural use tomunicipal and industrial use is a current trend inthe Southwest that is expected to continue.Urban users are generally willing to pay more forwater and land than are agricultural users.

Interregional transport of surface water is animportant component of water supply for theSouthwest and could increase in the future.

However, water from the Colorado River and RioGrande is completely allocated, and there aresubstantial economic and political barriers totransporting water from more distant sources.

Desalination could be used to augment fresh-water supplies, especially if new technology canhelp lower costs. At present it is noteconomically feasible in comparison to othermeans of augmenting municipal and industrialsupplies.

Optimal use of existing water supplies ofdiffering quality, e.g. delivery of non-potablesupplies such as reclaimed water for someusers, should also be examined.

Demand management could relieve some of thepressure on water resources that would occurwith a warmer or more variable climate.Voluntary or mandatory conservation, waterrationing, limits on new development, andmarket forces could all be used to reducedemand for water.

Allowing market forces to set water prices andpricing water at least at its full cost could result ina reduction in demand, or could drive furthershifts in water from agricultural to municipal andindustrial users (water rights and political andlocal economic considerations notwithstanding).

However, instituting full-cost pricing would havegreater economic impacts on some areas andsectors than on others, particularly for low-income domestic users. And for some privately-owned water systems--such as those in Arizonawhere price increases must be approved by theCorporation Commission--such increases maybe difficult to obtain if conservation is notconsidered a justifiable basis for increasing thewater rates.

Research and Information Needs

There is a demand for additional climateinformation in the municipal and industrial watersector in the Southwest, which generally hasscientists and engineers who already useexisting information.

First, operators of surface-water supplies wouldlike seasonal (winter) precipitation forecasts 6-18months in advance in order to manage storagesystems, and in some cases to makecommitments for water to municipal andindustrial rather than to agricultural users.

These forecasts should include both local sourceareas and source areas for imported supplies,

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for example, the entire Colorado River basin.The forecasts should also provide estimates ofuncertainties.

Second, these same operators need betterinformation on how different components of thehydrologic cycle will respond to interannual andlong-term changes in precipitation. That is, givena forecast of seasonal precipitation, what is theexpected amount and timing of runoff,evaporation, and recharge during the weeks andmonths that follow. Better-integrated modelingtools are needed to provide this information.

Planners in the municipal and industrial watersector need estimates of how climate variabilityand change could stress the capacities of supplysystems and influence water demand. Thisincludes:

• multi-year scenarios of increased ordecreased precipitation, runoff,recharge, and demand

• possible changes to major supplies thatoriginate outside the region

Estimates of uncertainties are needed to developappropriate ranges of water supply and demandscenarios. Political factors, e.g., possiblechanges in water allocations, should be includedas well.

Policy Issues

Water policy in the Southwest is becomingincreasingly driven by the need to secure reliablelong-term water supplies in the face of dwindlinggroundwater reserves, over-committed surface-water supplies, and rapidly expanding demanddue to population growth.

In the face of these pressures, a combination ofregulatory control, supply enhancement, andmarket forces--mentioned above as possiblecategories of responses--will be needed tomaintain the balance between supply anddemand. Using market forces to help determinewater allocations and pricing would be a majorpolicy shift for the region.

In addition, there is a need for explicit, ongoingsupport from government and political leaders--within all states of the Southwest and particularlywithin the Colorado River basin--to gather,

analyze, and share information needed toaddress the policy issues articulated.

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 1: MunicipalWater, in Chapter 8.

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41

CHAPTER 10URBANIZATION AND ENERGY USE


Wilson Orr, DirectorAdvanced Technology Program

City of Scottsdale, AZand

Roger Bales, Interim DirectorInstitute for the Study of Planet Earth


Workshop Participants (2 sesions): Roger Bales and Soroosh Sorooshian (facilitators), SteveAbernathy, Margi Brooks, Scott Chaplin, Joy Colucci, R.T. Eby, Bill Erickson, Sandra Henderson, LauraHuenekke, Bisher Imam, R. Klimesh, Roy Koch, Linda Mearns, Claudia Nierenberg, Wilson Orr, AnnPhillips, Dallas Riegle, Carlos Rincon, Marja Shaner, Caitlin Simpson, Tony Socci, Everett Springer,Michael Stenburg, Sheridan Stone, Dennis Sundie, Larry Winter, Andrew Wood, James Young

PART I: URBANIZATION


The urban sector with high population densitiesis significantly at risk to first-order impacts.These are differentiated from second-orderimpacts as follows:

• First-order impacts: those causeddirectly and immediately by climate andweather variability. Flood damage toprivate property and public infrastructureis an example.

• Second-order impacts: those indirectlyrelated, but attributed to, climatevariability. For example, a decision torebuild damaged property at some otherlocation, to move from the area orregion, or to replace infrastructure withdifferent facilities would all be second-order impacts.

The highest first-order impact to urban areas isloss of life and property to extreme weatherevents. These include flooding, wind damage,and power outages. The highest second-orderimpacts are increased fire danger fromsuccession vegetation (likely more highlyflammable grasses), changes to sustained

freshwater availability, and the public costs ofcoping strategies.

More difficult to quantify but extremely importantto the sustained vitality of southwestern urbanareas would be any long-term changes inclimate. Improved models and predictivecapabilities for this region would be extremelyvaluable.

For example, warmer temperatures could renderthe region a less desirable place to live, resultingin less immigration and thus less development. Intraregional shifts of population from rural tourban areas could exacerbate increasing riskswithin the urban sector. These could combineas a secondary impact in the demand for urbaninfrastructure, services, tax and bond structure,and (for better or worse) the problem of rapidgrowth.

Sustained growth rates have created adependency--common in many communities inthe Southwest--on growth-related income tosupport current public needs. Thus, urbanizationpatterns driven by climate change, even acrossregions of the country, become extremelyimportant to communities in this region.

Tourism is a major income source for manysouthwestern communities. Shorter cool periodsand longer hot periods could diminish thenumber of winter visitors and the length of their

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stays. Intraregional shifts in destinations forseasonal visitors would move the benefits andcosts of climate change among tourism sectors.

Any increase in snowfall, for instance, wouldbenefit the ski industry that is particularlyvulnerable to snow-season precipitation. However, monsoon-season (late summer)precipitation with increased storm severity wouldmake the water-sports sector more hazardous.

With regard to the potential change in hazards ingeneral, the insurance industry would have aunique interest in shifting climatic patterns.

The Southwest is particularly vulnerable toenergy costs with high summer usage for thelower elevations and higher elevationsexperiencing higher demand in the winter. Muchof this energy is imported or fossil-derived andtherefore subject to carbon taxes or othernational and international mitigative strategies.

Water is precious in the Southwest. Theincreasing demands of urbanization for wateroutpace declining agricultural uses and haveengendered a significant demand on theColorado River watershed in addition to localgroundwater resources. As groundwaterresources are depleted, the strong hydrogeologiccoupling of the Southwest has led toextraordinary surface subsidence for someareas. Long-term climatic effects on the timing,rate, duration, and total amount of precipitationcould bring significant impacts.

The Southwest is a net importer of food.Although some specialty crops are produced forwithin-state markets, most of the agriculturalproduction is exported. A distinct (second-orderand interregional-impact) vulnerability exists tochanges in agricultural productivity elsewhere.This climatic-driven factor couples with anincreasing global population and demand forfood to amplify the risk.

Responses and Opportunities

Higher energy and water costs could spur moreresource-efficient construction of both publicinfrastructure and private development. Forexample, the fledgling solar industry and otherresource-concerned sectors of the Southwestcould find significant opportunity in a changingclimatic era. The solar resources of the

Southwest are enormous and, if not diminishedby increased cloud cover from climate changes,would become a distinct and pronounced asset.Water- conservation systems, devices,practices, and policies could provide a majorresponse to change and rapidly expand thisemergent industry.

The ability of the technologically rich Southwestto provide assistance and products to other aridlands--as well as to other areas that mightexperience greater variability in climate-- shouldnot be underestimated.


The risks to extreme weather events and long-term (decadal) regional climatic change are twodistinct research categories. Both are critical forintelligent responses to global change.

• A frequency, magnitude, and locationenvelope for storm events would betterfacilitate local preparedness.

• The economic readjustments necessaryto accommodate long-term changewould benefit from improved long-termclimatic predictability.

• A third research need is for bettercommunication tools with which toinform concerned citizens, city councils,county commissioners, regional, andstate officials. The science communitycommunicates poorly with those who willbear the impacts of a changing climateand at present knows more aboutclimate change than how tocommunicate this knowledge.

Policy Issues

The entire policy structure affecting resourceallocation, usage, pricing, and research needsserious scrutiny. Collaborations between theacademic and local government sectors areessential to the region's integrated policyresponse. This would have to fit with newnational policies--indeed, in some cases,become a driving force.Policies regarding disaster-response activities,authority, and financing require thoroughinvestigation. Water policy, already a confusing

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and contested area, also requires seriousattention. Improved long-term precipitationmodels could even become a driving force forunity with regard to water policy.

Cross-sectoral and interregional relationshipsand impacts will raise many unexpected policyshortfalls. An appropriate policy response,sufficiently broad to address all resources andstakeholders, will be essential to thesustainability of the Southwest.

PART II: ENERGY USE


The energy sector in the Southwest is vulnerableto changes in temperature from climate changeand increased climate variability. An increase intemperature clearly would increase electricityand fuel demands in summer. However, therecould be some associated decrease in winter.

The sector is also vulnerable to changes inenergy prices resulting from climate variabilityand change. For example, reduced river flows insome areas would result in less hydropowergeneration and shifts to higher-priced options.

Increased fossil-fuel use could have directimpacts on atmospheric acidity, and hence onthe acid content of precipitation, which wouldimpact vulnerable ecosystems. There would alsobe a direct impact on urban air quality, andconsequently on public health.

International actions to curb fossil-fuel use thatresulted in higher fuel costs would also impactthe region.

Responses

Market pricing of electricity and pricing energy atits full cost, including externalities, is expected toresult in more efficient energy use and helpoffset increased demand. Higher prices couldthen help drive innovation and creativeresponses in the industry, including conservationmeasures.


There is a demand for more and better climateinformation in the energy sector, which generallyhas scientists and engineers who already useexisting information. Temperature scenarios areof interest to planners, especially in estimatingpeak demands for electricity. Better estimates ofhow demand will respond to climate change areneeded as well.

Policy Issues

Full-cost market pricing is an important policyissue that should be addressed by the energysector. The impact of deregulation in theelectricity sector should also be considered.

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 5: EnergyProduction and Use, in Chapter 8.

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CHAPTER 11NATURAL ENVIRONMENT


Robert S. Thompson, Chief ScientistGlobal Change & Climate History Program

U.S. Geological SurveyDenver, CO

Workshop Participants (2 sessions): Laura Huenekke and James Shuttleworth (facilitators), MargiBrooks, David Brookshire, Tim Brown, Kevin Dahl, Prabhu Dayal, Robert Gerard, Bruce Goff, Jim Gosz,Gerald Gottfried, William Harris, Robinson Honani, Hoyt Johnson III, Bruce Kimball, Dave Kirtland,Cynthia Lyndquist, Beau McClure, Michael Molitor, Curtis Monger, Melvin Podwysocki, Kelly Redmond,Richard Reynolds, Marco Rivera, Marja Shaner, Everett Springer, Sheridan Stone, Robert Thompson,Selso Villego, Meg Weesner, Douglas Weiner, Jake Weltzin, Larry Winter

Ecosystems, hydrological systems, and the landsurface respond directly to many aspects ofclimatic variations and climate change and thusmay provide "early warnings" of theconsequences of such fluctuations.

Historical records and geologic studies indicatethat the landscapes and ecosystems of theSouthwest have continually changed in responseto climatic variations over time-spans fromdecades to tens-of-thousands of years.

Large changes in the landscape may beexpected in the future as ongoing climatechange interacts with human use of the land andnatural resources. Society in the Southwest willhave to adapt to changes in the availability ofwater and other resources, and totransformations of the appearance andcomposition of ecosystems.

The native vegetation and wildlife of theSouthwest are central to the "sense of place"that people feel in regard to this region, andecosystem changes may alter this perception.

Impacts and Vulnerability

The assessment of the impacts andvulnerabilities of the southwestern environmentis based on the perceptions, beliefs, and valuesof those undertaking the task.

A consensus must be developed on theprocesses and features that must be maintained

in the environment and ecosystems of theSouthwest.

Should the lands, the natural processes, or thespecies and features of the region bepreserved? What is more highly valued whenpreservation of one aspect of the environmentconflicts with another or with a societal need?

Although change is a natural part of thesouthwestern environment, have humanactivities accelerated the rate of change to anunacceptable degree?

For ecosystems in particular, society mustdecide how "natural" an ecosystem needs to be. Should ecosystems be maintained in a fashionthat maximizes diversity and biomass? Shouldthey be self-maintaining and adaptable? Howvalued are the roles of natural ecosystems in fireand watershed management, in the maintenanceand regeneration of soil, and in the sequestrationof carbon?

The rapid population growth of the Southwestwill increasingly affect the natural environment ofthe region and may increase its vulnerability toclimatic variations.

In other words, even disregarding the possibilityof global warming, climatic fluctuations such asthose seen over the past century will have largeimpacts in the Southwest as the increasinghuman population demands more water andother resources.

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The impacts of climate change in other regionscould affect the rate of migration into theSouthwest and thus accentuate these impacts.

The environment of the Southwest has changedduring the historic period due to agriculture,ranching, other human activities, and due to theinvasion of alien species.

Given this backdrop of human-induced change,it is difficult to assess whether on-goingecosystem response to climatic variationsexceeds those in the historical record. Humanactivities, perhaps in concert with historicalclimatic fluctuations, have caused the regionalextinction of wolves, grizzly bears, and otheranimals.

Land-use and urbanization are closing many ofthe natural corridors for the movement andmigration of wildlife, avenues that may beimportant for the dispersion of plants andanimals in reaction to future climatic variations.

Riparian habitats are of great importance in thisregard, both as migration corridors and ashabitats for a large number of species. The "skyisland" habitats of the Southwest mountainranges are particularly vulnerable to climaticchange, and presently endangered species mayface extinction. The reproductive cycles ofanimal species may be disrupted throughout theSouthwest, and changes in selective pressureswill impact both plants and animals.

The changes in abundance and geography ofspecies, coupled with regional or total extinction,will change the ecosystems of the Southwest. Ameasure of the biodiversity of the Southwest hasalready been lost, and much more may be lost inthe future with increasing pressure from human-population growth, habitat loss, and climaticvariations.

Desert ecosystems are often dominated by a fewplant species, and environmental changes thatimpact those key species may havewide-ranging impacts on the ecosystems.

Climatic change may accentuate the rate of loss,and alien species may gain competitive edgesover native species due to climatic variations.

Climatic fluctuations and changes may alsoimpact agricultural productivity, as variations inthe severity of winter freezes and other climatic

factors may lead to increases in insectpopulations and other agricultural "pests."

Human- and climate-induced changes in fireregimes may alter the balance of species andmay have impacts on watersheds as well. Water quantity and quality issues will continue tobe central to societal concerns about climaticchange and land use.

Flooding may increase as soil loss isaccentuated by human activities and climaticchange, and the withdrawal--andnon-replenishment under the current climate--ofgroundwater for human use not only will affectdirectly the land surface through subsidence butalso will impact water quality.

Soil loss, arroyo-cutting, and other forms ofincreased erosion will lead to increasedsediment loads in the rivers and, consequently,to increased infilling of reservoirs.

The loss of cryptobiotic soils will impact manyaspects of the ecosystems, and enhancedsurface instability in general may increase dustand visibility problems. The potential loss of theSouthwestern "sense of place" may impactrecreational opportunities and the associatedindustries.

The environment of the Southwest will beaffected by changes in both the mean climate ofthe region and by changes in extreme weatherevents. Small changes may be important forsome issues, particularly in ecosystems anderosion processes.

The abruptness of climatic change may also beimportant, with the same degree of changehaving a larger effect if it occurs over a shortperiod of time.

Minor changes in climate variability may affectcrop yields, both directly and through theireffects on pest outbreaks.

Future changes in atmospheric carbon dioxideconcentrations will directly affect plant growthand may alter the competitive balance of specieswithin the ecosystems and affect overall primaryproductivity.

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Responses

Responses to climate-induced changes onecosystems in the Southwest have varied. Manyrecognize that cattle ranching as currentlypracticed across most of the Southwest is notsustainable and with recent droughts, ranchershave had to decrease herd size by 80,000 head.

The U.S. Forest Service has acknowledged theimportance of fire in maintaining forest health,and has implemented selective anti-firesuppression measures.

Utility companies understand the role thatvegetation, such as the saguaro cactus, play incarbon sequestration. Programs such asGLOBE have been designed to educate today'syouth on climate change are have beenimplemented in schools around the Southwest.


Research is required to close gaps in the currentunderstanding of interconnected landscape andecosystem processes, in how such processesrespond to climatic variations, in what the naturalranges and rates of changes that occurred undernatural conditions in the Southwest and inhow human activities have altered theseprocesses and rates of change.

Models should be developed not necessarily topredict the future, but rather to organizeresearch activities, identify information gaps, andto investigate the interconnections amongprocesses.

Such models can be used in uncertaintyanalyses and sensitivity tests, and to look fornon-linear reactions to climatic changes. Theseefforts should provide the basis to formulate andtest hypotheses about how the Southwestenvironment will respond to future climaticchanges and changes in land use.

Efforts should be made to understand thepatterning and rates of change of theSouthwest's climate over various time scales,from annual to millennial in length. Does thecurrent range of climatic variability fit into thenatural patterning of change, or can we detect ahuman-induced element of change?In the area of primary data collection in thenatural world, long-term studies should be

conducted to understand the connections amongbiological, climatic, surficial process, andhydrological systems in different environments inthe Southwest. Some environments andprocesses may be sensitive to changes in themean climate, whereas others may respond tochanges in extremes or in variability.

Ecosystem and landscape changes should beclosely monitored at a series of long-termprotected sites and in a variety of environments. Such plots might be placed on National ParkService or other protected lands.

Special efforts should be devoted to monitoringand understanding the behavior of invasive alienspecies. These species are currently havinglarge effects on the Southwest's ecosystems.Will they thrive under future climatic conditionsand increasingly outcompete native species?

Scientists should develop scenarios of thepotential future environmental impacts of climaticchange on the Southwest and use these tocommunicate the issues to the public. Scenariodevelopment will also identify gaps in data and inthe understanding of processes.

Given the public awareness of El Niño/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) effects on the climate of theregion, it could be used as the center of onescenario of possible future climate variation andits consequences.

Regional climate models may provide sufficientstructure to permit investigation of potentialfuture climates of the Southwest based onnumerical climate models. Such models can beused to explore the potential regionalconsequences of changing levels of carbondioxide and other aspects of the global climatesystem.

Climate models and scenarios should feed intonew ecosystem and land-surface models thatallow the investigation of the broad-scaleimpacts of climate change. Sensitivity analysiscan then be used to investigate how short-termland-use or political decisions can impact theenvironment and how small changes in oneaspect of the environment influence the rest ofthe system.

Uncertainty analysis can also be employed todetermine if other factors may have caused theobserved changes. These studies could then

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form the basis for communicating the issues andconcerns about vulnerabilities to policymakersand to the public.

Improved methods and channels ofcommunication are necessary to direct relevantclimatic and environmental data to potentialusers. Federal, state, and other governmentalagencies must improve their intercommunicationand foster policies that work across boundariesand borders.

These agencies should seek to buildpartnerships among themselves, with the privatesector, and with the public to increase theregional scope, rationality, and effectiveness ofecosystem and landscape management.

Scientists should participate in this process andshould also seek to reach out to the publicthrough increased participation in GLOBE andother programs.

Policy Issues

Political leaders should be involved in the effortto develop a consensus view of what should bepreserved in the Southwest's landscapes andecosystems.

Current regulations place constraints on landmanagers and often result in conflicting andoverlapping mandates. Land-managementagencies require policies that give them moreflexibility to respond to climate change.

Land-management agencies should utilizescientific data for decisionmaking and shouldseek to develop common goals and strategiesacross institutional and geographic boundaries.

Zoning laws, taxes, and other governmentaltools should be used to channel growth topreserve corridors for migration and importanthabitats. A regulatory environment needs to bedeveloped that is aimed at a healthyenvironment overall, rather than at themaintenance of single species.

The endangered species act mode of aregulation forces agencies to focus on individualspecies. We need policies that will shiftregulatory mandates to a broader scale ofspecies management while including singlespecies as a part of it. Policies should reflect the

prioritization of issues and objectives identifiedby new research.

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 2: NaturalEcosystems, in Chapter 8.

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CHAPTER 12AGRICULTURE


Mark Patterson, Graduate Research AssociateUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy


Workshop Participants: Linda Mearns (facilitator), David Brabec, Mette Brogden, Fred Fisher, RobertGerard, Bruce Kimball, Peter Kuch, Claudia Nierenberg, Maurice Roos


Of all the uses of water in the Southwest,agriculture is by far the largest user, consumingalmost 80 percent of the annual available water. Given this large dependence on water, theagricultural sector in the arid Southwest isparticularly vulnerable to climate variability.

Agriculture is heavily dependent on irrigation, as"rainfed" agriculture is limited given theprecipitation regimes of the Southwest. Specificcrops that are most vulnerable to climate changeinclude cotton, wheat, alfalfa, vegetables, andorchard crops.

Cotton production in the Southwest is the largestagricultural user of water, and while cottonappears to be more tolerant to highertemperatures, the most productive varietiesrequire the most water. Cotton production isdeclining in the Southwest, in part owing todecreases in national and international prices.

Wheat production on the other hand is gainingmomentum, but recent climate-related pestinfestations have caused some setbacks andthreaten farmers' confidence.

Vegetables such as tomatoes and lettuce are ofhigh value, but require high inputs.

Each crop type requires different irrigationschedules, and deviance from establishedschedules can be potentially disastrous.

Smaller farms in the Southwest are not flexible interms of capital, but are able to adapt morereadily in the face of increased vulnerability.

Organic farmers, however, are more susceptibleto the consequences of climate change.

Manifestations of climate change such as mildwinters and hot humid summers often impactcrops in terms of pest and mold problems.Another indirect impact from climate change isincrease soil salinity caused by an increase inevaporation. In general climate-changevulnerability is geographically andproblematically diverse.

Responses

The agricultural sector's response to climatevariability has been slow and varied. Extensivecapital investment in crop-specific farmmachinery has many farmers reluctant to changecrop types. The flexibility to change crop type isan important factor in decisionmaking. Severalfarmers for example, have switched from corn tosorghum.

Another response to climate variability by theagricultural sector has been to sell farms andtheir accompanying water rights to growingcities. (Water rights in the Southwest are tied toland ownership.) In Arizona, the city of Tucsonhas purchased farmland in nearby Avra Valleywhile Phoenix has acquired farms as far away asYuma, several-hundred miles away.

These climate variability-induced water transfershave an indirect impact on the local tax base forgovernments, as cities are exempt from payingtaxes to these local governments. While somefarmers believe that too much agricultural land isbeing lost to residential development, others feelthat the trend is passing as the costs of

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distribution systems are being spread over fewerpeople.


Increased climate variability is the most difficultaspect of climate change for farmers as itintroduces more uncertainty into a farmer'sdecisionmaking. The planning range for farmersin the Southwest may be a long as ten years.

Adaptation to change is slow and expensive.Farmers require both long term (decadal) andshort term (seasonal) forecasts.

Timing and intensity of precipitation, temperature(minimum and maximum), and cloud cover andradiation intensity are critical factors in seasonalplanting decisions, while longer-termclimatological information is important forselecting crop types.

Stakeholders have identified the following areasin which research and information is required toadapt more effectively to climate variability

• the availability of water for controlledirrigation

• the foreknowledge of pest infestation

• the diurnal temperature range and

• more assistance from CooperativeExtension and outreach services

Scientists, on the other hand, view research onthe relationships among CO2, temperature andwater budgets as more urgent.

Policy Issues

The most pressing policy issue identified bystakeholders is that of water management andrights. Stakeholder views vary on whether theexisting policies are flexible enough toaccommodate climate changes and subsequentimpacts.

All agreed however, that urban development onpreviously agricultural land and the purchase of"water farms" are serious matters. Waterpolicies need to be broadened to considerindirect impacts of climate change such as the

erosion of the tax base in rural areas and theeconomic diversity of the Southwest.

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 3: Ranching andAgriculture, in Chapter 8.

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CHAPTER 13RANCHING


Mitchel McClaran, Associate ProfessorSchool of Renewable and Natural Resources

The University of Arizonaand



Workshop Participants: David Goodrich (facilitator), Tom Davis, Fred Fisher, Jerry Holechek, BarbaraHutchinson, Peter Kuch, Mitchel McClaran, Jim Renthal, Caitlin Simpson, David Yetman


Climate variability impacts the ranching sectorprimarily through its influence on the amount,seasonal availability, and quality of the foragebase. The timing and amount of rainfall are themost important climate factors that impact theranching sector in the Southwest, with wetterconditions being more beneficial. In most yearsthere is typically a one-to-two-year reserve offorage in the Southwest.

Alternative feeds are usually too expensive formost farmers to use to support all their livestockduring drought periods, and when reserve forageis used, most ranchers are forced to reduce thesize of their herds.

The recovery, or refilling, of the forage reservoirafter a climate-induced decline, will take at leastthree years under the best of conditions andmuch longer under worse managementconditions.

When ranchers are forced to cull their herds,recovery time--depending on the extent of herdreduction--can take at least five years in thebetter situations.

In addition to regional climatic conditions, climatevariability in the Midwest and Mexico impacts thenational and global grain and cattle markets,which in turn affects the ranching sector in theSouthwest.

For example, ranchers in Sonora do not havethe luxury of reserve forage and during the 1995-96 drought, Mexican ranchers flooded themarket with cattle to limit financial losses. This inturn lowered cattle prices in the Southwest.

Responses

The ranching sector in the Southwest typicallyresponds to climate variability in one of twoways. The first way is either a reduction orincrease in herd size. For example, Arizonaexperienced a drought from 1994 to 1996 andthe ranching industry responded by reducingherd size from 870,000 to 790,000 head. As thenumber of cattle sold increased, the number ofranches in business decreased (Figure 9.1).

In addition to reducing herd size, profits fell 15percent during the same time period. Responsesto the drought varied according to ranch size, aslarger ranches did not reduce herd size morethan usual, while smaller ranches culled herdsby 40 to 80 percent. Conversely, climatevariability in New Mexico has brought an averageof 25 percent more precipitation, which allowedranchers to increase herd size by more than100,000 cattle (Figure 9.2).

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Figure 9.1. Number of Cattle Sold and theNumber of Cow/Calf Operations in Arizona1993-1996 (Eakin and Liverman, 1997)

Figure 9.2. Cattle Numbers for Arizona and NewMexico (USDA, 1997)

The second response to climate variability is tochange the timing or increase/decease calvingand breeding. By offsetting the calving season,ranchers hope to "weather the storm" and waituntil more favorable climatic conditions forbreeding return.

By reducing calving number, ranchers increasethe survival change for the herd. Ranchers inArizona have steadily reduced the number ofcalves born since 1993 due to droughtconditions, while ranchers in New Mexico haveconsistently increased calving as precipitationhas increased Figure 9. 3).

Figure 9.3. Calving Number for Arizona and NewMexico (USDA, 1997)


Ranchers could respond to climatic variabilitymore effectively if longer term (6, 12, and 24month), more reliable forecasts were availablefor the Southwest and other regions ofrelevance, such as the Midwest. With thisinformation ranchers could adopt mitigativestrategies to respond to changing forage-reservelevels and market prices.

Research is needed in several areas to:

• describe the sensitivity of forage productionand non-forage species to changes in theseason and amount of precipitation

Number of Cow/Calf Operations in Arizona(in thousands)

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• to investigate the role of livestock-management practices before and duringdrought periods to determine the rate ofcattle and the ranching-industry recovery

• create a long-term climate data record fromfield stations

• undertake a study of the effect of climatevariability on pests and disease

• assess diversification as a drought copingstrategy

Ranchers also indicate that extension servicesneed to be improved, as there is little or noconnection with individuals working atuniversities. As a result, forecasts are treatedwith suspicion. Communications betweenranchers and scientists and the credibility andreliability of forecasts are key areas influencingindividual rancher responses to climateforecasts.

Policy Issues

Constraints on coping with climate variability andchange in the ranching sector include:

• livestock prices are determined by factorsoutside the Southwest

• public land-management agencies andlending institutions can be resistant toproviding flexibility in the management ofherd sizes in response to climate variability

There exists some concern about the role ofgovernment policies in mitigating the potentialimpacts of climate change. Some argue thatgovernment subsidies for feed and water duringdrought periods have led to an oversupply ofcattle, which leaves ranchers even morevulnerable during the next drought period.

While these policies are intended to act as asafety net for the ranching sector, there isgrowing concern that subsidies and taxincentives reduce the perceived vulnerabilityassociated with climate change and therefore,ranchers do not respond as they might otherwise(i.e., reducing herd sizes).

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 3: Ranching andAgriculture, in Chapter 8.

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55

PART IV

WORKSHOP: CROSS-CUTTING ISSUESSEPTEMBER 4, 1997

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57

CHAPTER 14ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AND HEALTH


Robert Varady, Interim DirectorUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy


Workshop Participants: Robert Varady (facilitator), John Balbus, Heather Benway, Andrew Comrie,Bruce Goff, Robert Hackenberg, Barbara Morehouse, Richard Reynolds, Carlos Rincon, Beatriz Vera


Throughout the world, the relationship betweenwater and environmental health has beenwell-known for centuries.

The harmful effects of water shortages, extremeflooding, contaminated drinking water, andinadequate sewerage are most palpable indeveloping countries, where both infrastructureand health care are least available. In suchenvironments, water-related ailments includedehydration, water-borne microbial infection, andvector-borne disease.

The consequences of temperature extremes,often in combination with drought or flooding,also seriously affect public health in poorsocieties.

Chronic gastrointestinitis, cholera, typhoid,malaria, dengue fever, valley fever(coccidiomycosis) and other respiratorydiseases, and heat stress are among the mostcommon illnesses attributed to water, sanitation,heat, and wind-borne dust.

What is the likelihood of occurrence andpossible severity of certain health problems as aresult of climate changes, specifically increasesin temperature? Ozone levels, at leasttransiently, are very likely to increase as a resultof higher temperatures. Water-borne diarrhealdiseases, specifically hepatitis A, shigella, andsalmonella, are current problems of the borderarea that might exhibit non-linear responses towarmer temperatures if a critical winter killingphase is eliminated by higher temperatures. Cholera is not currently a major concern in the

border area, but the proximity to southernCentral America makes it worth mentioning.

Not only in developing countries but ineconomically disadvantaged, resource-poor, orovercrowded areas of relatively wealthy nations,similar conditions can prevail. These areas,already the least stable and most vulnerable to avariety of disruptions, are particularly at risk fromchanges in the availability and quality of water.

Of course, numerous sociodemographic factorsdetermine water quantity and quality: populationchange, land-use characteristics, rate ofeconomic development, planning policies, andprevailing politics.

Among physical influences on the stability ofwater-delivery and water-treatment systems,climate is perhaps the most pervasive. In theshort-term, natural disasters, most of themclimatic, pose the greatest hazards.

In the long-run, even small changes intemperature and rainfall regimes have thepotential to cause serious disruption to thesesystems, and thus to public health.

Nowhere are the above observations moreapplicable than in arid and semiarid regionswhere climatic variability already is high. Socialsystems in these areas are always stressedbecause of permanent water shortage.

In the southwestern United States, alternatingdroughts and floods regularly disruptcommunities and affect health. It follows, too,that the Southwest’s most disadvantagedcommunities are also its most vulnerable toclimate variability and change.

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Hence, cities, towns, and colonias (unplannedurban settlements) on both sides of theU.S.-Mexico border, tribal lands, poor miningcommunities, and other low-income zones inArizona and New Mexico are highly prone toclimate-induced worsening of health conditions.

And everywhere, especially in inner cities and indistant, outlying rural communities, the elderlyand those who cannot afford to pay for heatingand cooling are most vulnerable.

Responses

Pressed by the more immediate demands ofuneven access to health care, the presence ofnumerous low-income communities, and theprevalence of other pressing health problems,the public-health community has been slow toacknowledge the potential of climate-change-induced health threats.

Even so, authorities have become increasinglyaware of the heightened incidence of certainvector-borne diseases such as dengue fever andhanta virus, and that there may be a connectionto increases in these diseases and climatechange.

Both of these illnesses are closely associatedwith temperature and rainfall increase. Inresponse, for example, to limit urban mosquitobreeding, authorities in Tucson have mounted athus-far successful campaign to reduce thepresence of stagnant-water pools.

Institutionally, the other notable effort in thisdomain is the general resolve by the UnitedStates and Mexico to improve environmentalinfrastructure in the at-risk border region (seealso the discussion in Chapter 16, "U.S.-MexicoBorder").

The Border Environment CooperationCommission (BECC) and its sibling, the NorthAmerican Development Bank (NADBank), wereestablished in 1993 primarily to assist bordercommunities in supplying treated drinking waterand removing and treating household andindustrial waste.

During its three years of operation, BECC, theproject-certifying organization, has been mindfulof the connection between this type ofinfrastructure and the status of public health in

the communities served. Nonetheless, neitherBECC nor NADBank understands or is attunedto the special requirements of responding toclimatic variability and change.


Public-health scholars and officials are onlyslowly beginning to understand the potentialimpacts of climate change on environmentalquality and health.

It is widely accepted that certain socioeconomicgroups will be more susceptible to climate-change-related health problems, but it is difficultif not impossible to predict when and wherethese problems will strike.

Researchers, for their part, need to recognizethat temporal and spatial scales are important indefining environmental quality and health.Accordingly, studies should place less emphasison long-term climatic trends than on short-termforecasts. In regard to health and environmentalissues, it is apparent that seasonal and monthlyvariability are larger factors than decadal orannual variability.

Epidemiologists argue that longitudinal studiesare the best way to uncover links betweenclimate change and health problems. Thesestudies could provide information necessary tochange human behavior patterns to limit thespread of certain diseases and thereby assureimprovements in public health.

Research on environmental quality is needed tomake more concrete the linkages betweenclimate change and activities from variouseconomic sectors leading to environmentaldegradation. For example, it is possible thatwarmer temperature will lead farmers toincrease the application of pesticides.

This increase in pesticides could havedetrimental effects on the environment. In turn,increased runoff from extreme precipitationevents could lead to more contaminants enteringwater supplies. Can existing infrastructure copewith increased runoff?Urban sprawl stemming from increasedrural-to-urban migration also is considered aform of environmental degradation. Investigations are needed to understand howclimate change, in conjunction with

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socioeconomic factors, could lead to increasedurbanization.

Policy Issues

In the United States, environmental-healthplanning, implementation, and enforcement arein the hands of numerous agencies, acting at thefederal, state, and local levels.

Additionally, in our society, non-public-sector,sometimes voluntary organizations often playimportant roles in representing groups andproviding care.

Almost always, complex issues are shared byseveral agencies at all these levels and bynongovernmental organizations.

For example, a southwestern water-relatedepidemic may involve such organizations as theCenters for Disease Prevention and Control(CDC), the National Institute of EnvironmentalHealth Sciences, a state department of healthservices, a county health department, a cityhealth department, a university researchlaboratory, a private-sector health-care facility,and a nongovernmental community-supportorganization.

In view of this convoluted institutional web ofresearch, intervention, monitoring,administration, intervention, and enforcement,better coordination and streamlining surely wouldimprove responsiveness, and eventually,environmental-health conditions per se.

Further, because climate-induced health impactsare perceived as low-priority issues by theprofessional health-care community, heightenedawareness is desirable. Campaigns to educatethese professionals in the particulars of healthimpacts of climate change would prove highlybeneficial. And priorities need to be made aboutwhich diseases to monitor and how.

Finally, it is important to recognize that politiciansand other decisionmakers who are not trained ashealth professionals inadvertently can generatepolicies that affect environmental-healthconditions. Very often, policies resulting fromeconomic and political considerations--that onthe surface may have nothing to do with eitherclimate change or public health--can haveimportant effects on both sectors.

Similarly, the close link between social andeconomic well-being and a high state of publichealth suggests that one of the best ways toimprove public health is to ameliorate socialconditions.

Both of these observations imply thatpolicymakers who are more knowledgeableabout climate change and health could beinfluential in preventing and coping with thehealth-related impacts of climate variability.

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 4: EnvironmentalQuality and Health, in Chapter 8.

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61

CHAPTER 15INDIAN COUNTRY


James Enote, DirectorPueblo of Zuni Conservation Project

Zuni, NMand

Robert Varady, Interim DirectorUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy


Workshop Participants: Robert Varady (facilitator), Stephen Abernathy, David Brookshire, Tim Brown,Andrew Comrie, Kenneth Cronin, R.T. Eby, James Enote, Lisa Farrow, Robinson Honani, CynthiaLindquist, Rory Majenty, Beau McClure, Gerardo Monroy, Barbara Morehouse, James Renthal, CarlosRincon, Marco Rivera, Maurice Roos, Michael Smith, Anthony Socci, Dennis Sundie, Beatriz Vera, SelsoVillega, Craig Wilcox, Jeff Williams


The Southwest region is home to the greatestdiversity of tribes and longest history of continualhabitation in this country. Through thousands ofyears of climate change, native peoples of thisregion have endured and maintained a way oflife that is uniquely their own.

While tribes have been successful in adapting topast climate changes, these changes occurredmore slowly. Today’s more rapidly changingclimate increases the vulnerability of nativepeoples and threatens to impact freshwater,agriculture, and energy resources of tribes.

Indian reservations in the Southwest are oftenbounded by lands owned or controlled by federalor state agencies, and in some cases by Mexico.(The Tohono O’odham Nation in southernArizona, for example, neighbors on landmanaged by the National Park Service, Bureauof Land Management, U.S. Forest Service, U.S.Air Force, and Mexico.)

Within the areas separated by suchadministrative boundaries, land-and-watermanagement practices differ markedly--a factorthat in turn frequently impacts the adjoining tribalresource base.

If the uncertain effects of climate change areadded to this uncoordinated and often

contradictory mix of procedures and approachesto resource use, the risk of inappropriateresponse increases.

Responses

In discussing possible responses to climatechange in Indian country, a starting point is toacknowledge the preeminence of the issue ofsovereignty.

For each of the dozens of tribal governments inthe Southwest, self-governance and autonomy inall form of decisionmaking--especially regardingdecisions that affect the use of water and naturalresources--provide the driving rationale forcollective action.

Viewed in this light, the seeming cacophony ofmanagement practices surrounding Indian landsonly reaffirms the resolve of individual tribal unitsto define their own strategies.

Almost always, these strategies are designed tobe consistent with cultural and religious valuesand with long-held beliefs of proper ways tofarm, irrigate, build, and develop communities.

Among the most salient cultural values are thoserelating to rain and water, the most preciouscommodities in the dry southwestern region.

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Traditional understanding of rain, drought,flooding, and climatic variation are among themost important values in Indian country. Many ifnot all indigenous agriculturalists and resourcemanagers believe that their cultures alreadypossess sufficient knowledge to respond toclimate variation and change.

Additionally, residents of Indian lands expect thepolicies of tribal authorities to meet the needs ofthe stakeholders--that is, the growers, holders ofwater rights, and other producers. Any responseto climate change must necessarily account forand respect these interests.


Native peoples are the primary carriers ofindigenous languages and cultural expression,and have been architects of sustainable living inthe fragile, arid high altitudes and deserts of theSouthwest.

Their cultures are rooted in intimate connectionsbetween people and nature, and representstorehouses of knowledge and resources. Ifappropriately used, these repositories can becritical to safeguarding biodiversity, naturalresources, production systems, health, andspiritual sustenance of society.

Some would argue that indigenous copingstrategies have had a better track record thanmainstream approaches in reducing risks.Accordingly, it seems reasonable that moreemphasis should be placed on documentingindigenous knowledge and fostering localimplementation of traditionalstrategies--particularly in Indian country, butpotentially elsewhere as well.

For this to happen, non-native researchers willneed to acknowledge to a greater degree thevalue of these information sources. At the sametime, it is important for non-Indian researchers,resource managers, and policymakers torecognize that certain approaches to reducingvulnerability, such as climate manipulation, areconsidered taboo by native people.

Researchers and others also need to gain abetter understanding of the social structure oftribes before offering suggestions on coping withclimate change.

The decisionmaking processes of tribalgovernments and native peoples vary from onegroup to another and are often based ondifferent rationales than among non-nativepeople.

The native community has identified specificneeds designed to increase awareness andunderstanding of tribal social structure, and toarticulate joint native and non-native researchdirections:

• Convene tribal staff together with theacademic community, funders,practitioners, federal and stategovernments, and other stakeholderswhen discussing climate change.

• Review the experiences of key actors inclimate change and climate variability insouthwestern tribal societies.

• Communicate the most advancedmethods for understanding theinteraction of human and naturalsystems.

• Produce a set of durable products forfuture use by the climate-informationagencies and researchers.

Tribes also have indicated the need for moreinvestment per-capita to provide information andresources for Indian communities, and inparticular, to rural tribes. Technology to gatherdata on tribal resource bases is seen as a keyelement for tribal participation in climate-changediscussions, as some federal agencies do notappear to be readily forthcoming with data(according some Navajos, for example).

In addition to the items listed above, a number ofother information and research needs can beidentified:

• Protocols for improved communications,better inter-institutional relations, andmore efficient modes of sharing dataand information.

• Enhanced access to forecasts.

• Wider and less-expensive availability ofrainfall- and temperature-measurementequipment and instrumentation.

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• Easier and more compatible access toinformation from Mexico.

• Better-adapted and more regionallysensitive climate models.

• A comprehensive, regional,easy-to-access climate-informationclearinghouse.

Policy Issues

As noted, tribal sovereignty is a key issue withrespect to climate-change policies. Whilesovereignty may be perceived as a restrictiveelement in communications, it allows tribes todevelop and implement strategies on their ownterms and within scales of individual tribalcapacity.

To be responsive to tribal needs--and thereforeto be acceptable--national climate-changepolicies will need to represent more completelythe interests of tribal communities. Thesepolicies will require protocols that recognize andempower most local forms of representation, aswell.

Next, policies should recognize that tribalcommunities are not always homogeneous. Onthe contrary, they include groups with differingand sometimes conflicting roles, needs, andvalues.

These differences are vulnerable to the impactsof inappropriate modernization that may bebrought about as a result of adaptation to climatechange. In short, policies ought to be flexibleenough to accommodate widely disparatecultural and political exigencies.

Finally, although the southwestern landscapehosts scores of land-management,water-management, and resource-managementregimes, it remains unclear whether the existingquilt of institutions is in fact suitable or adequate.

Certainly, as seen from the point of view ofIndian country, non-native institutional coherenceand consistency are in need of reform.

For additional discussions on this topic, seethe presentations for Panel 6: U.S.-MexicoBorder Region and Indian Country, in Chapter8.

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65

CHAPTER 16U.S.-MEXICO BORDER


Robert G. Varady, Interim DirectorUdall Center for Studies in Public Policy


Workshop Participants: Robert Varady (facilitator), Stephen Abernathy, David Brookshire, Tim Brown,Andrew Comrie, Kennneth Cronin, R.T. Eby, James Enote, Lisa Farrow, Robinson Honani, CynthiaLindquist, Rory Majenty, Beau McClure, Gerardo Monroy, Barbara Morehouse, James Renthal, CarlosRincon, Marco Rivera, Maurice Roos, Michael Smith, Anthony Socci, Dennis Sundie, Beatriz Vera, SelsoVillega, Craig Wilcox, Jeff Williams


Culturally, politically, economically, andgeographically, the southwest of the UnitedStates is one of the nation’s most complexregions. Within this large area, no zone divergesmore from national norms than the narrow stripof land abutting the border with Mexico.

Here, communities exhibit cultural variety,richness, and complexity that reflect theirproximity and ties to Mexico.

The population centers of the southwesternUnited States and northern Mexico also exist ina physical setting that is exceptionallyprecarious--chronically water-short, financiallyresource-poor, and subject to highly variableprecipitation.

Adding to their overall vulnerability is a rapidlychanging demography characterized by intensiveurban economic development, growingtransnational trade, heavy in-migration, andseriously strained infrastructure.

On the Mexican side of the border, the20-year-old maquiladora (foreign-ownedindustrial plants) phenomenon has spurredmultifold growth of the major cities, generallyraised per-capita income, and brought greaterprosperity--albeit with the usualaccompaniments: overcrowding, poor sanitation,reduced air and water quality, greater socialinstability, inadequate tax revenue, andconsequent inability of local governments tofinance and implement needed improvements.

North of the border, population growth hasremained much more modest--though still largeby U.S. standards. The two largest cities (SanDiego and El Paso) have grown substantially; theother dozen or so urban centers also haveenlarged, but remain relatively small.

More significantly, the U.S. part of the borderregion remains appreciably poorer than thenation as a whole. Increased investment fromthe maquiladora program and from the NorthAmerican Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) hasyet to raise per-capita income levels to those ofthe core areas of the country.

Similarly, infrastructure--particularlywater-management infrastructure--continues tobe inadequate. Since early 1995, twopost-NAFTA institutions, the Border EnvironmentCooperation Commission (BECC) and the NorthAmerican Development Bank (NADBank), havebeen attempting to reverse a decades-old trendof minimal investment in environmentalinfrastructure.

Adding to the complexity of problem-solving isthe binational nature of environmental issues.Throughout the present century, relationsbetween the United States and Mexico havefluctuated in response to national moods.Sovereignty considerations have dominatedrelations and complicated attempts atcooperative, local-based efforts.As a consequence, until very recently, inflexibilityprevailed--just when flexibility was most needed.The advent of BECC and NADBank as

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progressive, responsive organizations, and thenew openness of the venerable InternationalBoundary and Water Commission, offer apromise of greater transnational cooperation andgreater capacity to respond to climate-inducedenvironmental threats.

These political, economic, and demographicconditions, combined with the exigencies of theregion’s aridity and semiaridity, induce a state ofperpetual and serious vulnerability to climaticvariability.

Historically, drought and flooding have frequentlyalternated, disrupting livelihoods, and causingeconomic hardship and social displacement. Insuch an environment, urban water supplies areparticularly susceptible to changes inprecipitation.

At the other extreme, seasonal flooding,especially during the summer monsoon season,often overtaxes the capacity of local sewagesystems, resulting in health-endangering surfaceflows of untreated waste.

Responses

On both sides of the border, existing sanitationinfrastructure is often inadequate or not fullyfunctional. On the Mexican side, manyneighborhoods are unserved and even undernon-extreme circumstances, systems--which areold, leaky, too small, and poorly maintained--arenot able to cope with increasing demands.Sewage chronically contaminates groundwaterand surface-water supplies, and during extremeevents, overflows its bounds and is directlyexposed.

Comparably, in times of drought or excessiveheat, water supply can be inadequate. InMexican communities, directly-piped drinkingwater is not universally supplied, so manyresidents store water in rooftop tanks.

When water is scarce, prices rise, delivery ismore infrequent, and water is less available. Onsuch occasions, public health is seriouslyimpacted. In U.S. border towns, the situation isless critical, but nonetheless of concern, mostparticularly in colonias (unplanned settlements)in New Mexico and Texas.

In an area whose climate is characterized byuncertainty and high variability, it would bereasonable to assume that populations havedeveloped adaptations and coping mechanismsto counteract or mitigate the effects of extremeheat on the one hand and extensive flooding onthe other.

Indeed, the region’s indigenous populations hadsuch mechanisms: maintaining the modest sizeof their communities, selecting the mosthabitable and least vulnerable sites, tailoringtheir agricultural production systems to rainfallavailability, and constraining their uses of water.

With development and migration, however,adaptive features have been lost, and towns andcities have been modeled after otherselsewhere. The results have been the conditionsdescribed above.

As noted, the Free Trade Agreement hasbrought with it some promise of investment inwater/wastewater infrastructural improvements.BECC in particular has stressed sustainabledevelopment, insisting on sustainability in thedesign of projects it approves.

Most notably, this requirement refers to wise andefficient use and reuse of water. WhetherBECC’s criteria result in better watermanagement in the long-run has yet to betested. Nor has BECC or any other binationalborder institution confronted the additionalconsequences of possibly increased climatevariability.


Perhaps even more than in other sectors, lack ofinformation and data constrains responses toenvironmental problems in general and toclimate-induced problems in particular.

Partly, the complicating factor here is the set ofburdens imposed by the transboundary nature ofissues and institutions. Thus availability ofreliable and timely information, limited in anyevent, is even more restricted in the binationalsetting.

The disparity in financial resources combinedwith varying, often disparate, political and culturalapproaches to planning and management in thetwo countries result in many differences in:

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• languages

• economic development priorities

• availability of trained personnel

• measurement systems and scales ofanalysis

• precision and accuracy of scientific data

• levels of access to technology,especially computer-informationtechnology

• general availability of relevant raw andprocessed information

Paradoxically, just when technological andanalytical tools are becoming more sophisticatedand better adapted, the complications oftransboundary information management andapplication are often seen as impediments toeasy, low-cost solutions.

The post-NAFTA institutions are beginning toaddress some of these information problemsthrough direct community technical assistanceprograms, greater responsiveness to publicneeds, and dissemination of documents. But themandate of BECC and NADBank addresses onlyenvironmental-infrastructure projects--that is,new constructions.

It is evident that the regions’ broaderenvironmental problems, including climatechange, will require additional attention.Accordingly, these problems will entail greatercross-border cooperation, development oftailored protocols, and substantial investment inimproving information access.

In particular, an information and public-outreachclearinghouse for the region would meet anumber of the immediate needs of managers ofthe sectors most vulnerable to climate change.

Policy Issues

As seen, all environmental problems in theborder region, including those associated with

climate-change impacts and responses, areconfounded by binationalism.

Responsive decisionmaking holds the key todeveloping successful strategies, but the natureof policy varies greatly in the two neighboringcountries. In the United States, muchdecisionmaking and most management islocalized, while in Mexico both remain highlycentralized.

The resulting imbalance frequently manifestsitself at the national level in apparentcontradiction, greater inflexibility, or theappearance of lack of political will.

To serve as the most effective units of analysis,sectors of the border region need to be viewedas ecological zones, airsheds, watersheds, andcommunities--not as political entities. Policiesformulated to address climate-change impactsshould recognize this, even if the policiesthemselves are national in scope.

In this regard, the border region offers somepromise since some communities already havebegun to put in place formal and informalcooperative arrangements to deal withenvironmental issues.

The challenge for climate-change planners andmanagers is to harness the palpable diversity,rich indigenous knowledge base, and nascentlocal-level cooperation of local communities toframe responsive policies.

For additional discussions on this topic, see thepresentations for Panel 6: U.S.-Mexico BorderRegion and Indian Country, in Chapter 8.

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CHAPTER 17DISASTER MANAGEMENT


Marvin Waterstone, Associate ProfessorDepartment of Geography & Regional Development


Workshop Participants: David Kirtland (facilitator), Heather Benway, Bill Erickson, Bisher Imam, RichardReinhardt, Marvin Waterstone, Ray Watts

Only when phenomena and processes in theother sectors (e.g., water, energy, health, etc.)become disasters (as defined momentarily) dothey become of concern. Otherwise they aresimply the events of everyday life.


Defining Disasters

To begin our discussion, the group tried to definedisasters and came up with this formulation: Adisaster is an extreme event with adverseconsequences that are beyond the scope oftypical coping mechanisms. These adverseconsequences may be loss of life, loss ofproperty, loss of resources.

The extreme events may be biophysical,economic, and/or social. However, given ourdefinition, in most cases the effects willtranscend the biophysical realm and begin to befelt in economic and social terms.

A second implication that flows from thisdefinition is that disasters can arise from achange in the initiating events themselves, achange in the coping mechanisms available, orthrough some combination.

However, it is important to keep in mind that it isthe interaction between coping capabilities andthe characteristics of the initiating events thatleads to conditions beyond coping capacity, andhence disaster vulnerability. As an example, twocommunities may be exposed to exactly thesame weather/climate conditions, but dependingon their abilities to access emergency-water

supplies, may be more or less vulnerable todrought.

Impacts in the Southwest

Given the previous, it is important to be able toidentify the kinds of phenomena that may beaffected by climatic change in this region andtherefore lead to disasters.

In many ways, these phenomena are thosecovered in several of the other sectoral topics ofthis report. It is possible that disasters couldoccur in water resources (flooding or droughts),natural ecosystems, agriculture, ranching,energy, or health and air quality.

It is critical to understand the characteristics ofthese phenomena in so far as thesecharacteristics might produce effects beyond thetypical coping capacities of responsible entities. Such characteristics might include themagnitude of the event, its duration, its arealextent, and its speed of onset.

It is also useful to keep in mind that in manysectors, the typical pattern in the Southwest isone of extremes. This has engendered aparticular set of coping strategies for manyclimate-related phenomena that might make thearea more resilient in the face of climatealterations.

On the other hand, in some sectors (e.g., waterresources, if current use patterns are to remainthe same) the region might be at the limit of itsflexibility, and small changes in climate could puttypical events beyond coping capacity.

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Responses

Determining Coping Capability

The coping capability of any specificmanagement entity (including individuals,communities, regions, states, nations, andinternational bodies) is dependent on a variety offactors. These might include such componentsas knowledge, experience, resources, networks,and jurisdictional and other legal/institutionalcharacteristics.

However, the coping capability is againdependent upon the combination of these (andpossibly other) characteristics of themanagement entity as they intersect withparticular hazardous phenomena. The samephenomenon will produce very different eventsdepending on the coping capacity, and viceversa.

Mitigation Strategies

Strategies to mitigate disasters, therefore, canfocus on the initiating events themselves (e.g.,reduction of air pollution, or elimination ofdisease vectors), on increasing copingcapabilities, or on some combination. Particularstrategies are highly context-dependent.


Data

The group discussed a number of informationaland data needs pertinent to managingclimate-related disasters. There was significantconcern that timely and spatially appropriatedata are not always available.

This problem is being exacerbated by:

• increasing moves towardprivatization of data collection andstorage;

• reduced budgets for governmentalagencies for monitoring, datacollection, and storage;

• a heavy and increasing reliance onremotely sensed data, and a lag inground truthing;

• gaps between more recent, digitizeddata and historical data in analogform, making time-seriesconstruction difficult and/orexpensive; and

• difficulties in translating thenecessary knowledge into formsusable by decisionmakers andpolicy-implementation entities.

Decisionmaking

The group also attempted to characterize anumber of informational and other problemsregarding decisionmaking for disastermanagement. One of the key issues identifiedwas the significant mismatch between eventsand decisions.

This mismatch is captured by two acronyms:

• NIMBY, meaning “not in mybackyard,” a spatial mismatchbetween the scale of events and thejurisdictional reach of particularentities; and

• NIMTOO, meaning “not in my termof office,” a temporal mismatchbetween the duration or timing ofevents, and the time-sensitiveconcerns of policymakers.

Another issue, in this regard, is the dynamicnature of these processes. The Southwest ischaracterized by rapid population growth, whichtends to be areally-extensive (i.e., sprawl).

One implication of this is that populations maybe moving into highly sensitive regions, areasthat are increasingly vulnerable to slightalterations of environmental and climaticconditions, and/or areas that are at the marginsof existing jurisdictional domains.

In this last regard, governmental or privatecoping mechanisms (emergency services, forexample) may be increasingly difficult orexpensive to deliver.

Communication

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Related to the matters of decisionmaking areessential communication improvements. Theseinclude improving communication to the publicas part of any mitigation strategy, and thisinvolves walking the fine line between apathyand panic.

It is important for communicators to provide notonly accurate and timely information, but also tobe able to convey a sense of efficacy.

It is also important to communicate informationto particular sectors that is relevant to thosemanagers' specific needs. This may meantailoring information, which will involve closeinteraction between information providers(researchers and governmental agencies) andthose who need the information fordecisionmaking.

Policy Issues and ResearchQuestions

Finally the group turned to the policy issues andresearch needs emerging out of the previouslydescribed examination. The following wereconsidered important areas for futureinvestigation:

Vulnerabilities and Populations

• Are some populations more vulnerablethan others to changes in climate?

• Does scale matter and in what ways?

• How can we deal with the issue ofecosystem vulnerability?

• Are social, economic, and politicalchanges more important than plausibleclimate changes?

• Can we conduct vulnerability analyses ofdiffering populations at differing scales?

• In what ways, if any, does climatechange affect coping mechanisms andvulnerability?

• What impacts are most important, andwhat sectors are most sensitive toclimate change?

Identify Policymakers Needs for MakingDecisions in Each Sector

§ Will better information improvedecisionmaking?

§ What constitutes better information; i.e.,what information do decisionmakersactually need?

§ How do we avoid NIMBY and NIMTOOproblems?

§ How do we avoid “Chicken Little” and“crying wolf” problems?

§ What kinds of decisionmakingprocesses are needed?

§ Are different/improved models requiredto address decisionmakers needs?

§ How are information and policymakinglinked?

Translating Data into Useful Information

§ How do data become useful fordecisionmaking by policymakers andthe public?

§ How does such information getcommunicated?

§ In addition to information aboutphenomena and processes, what canbe communicated about response?

Developing Contingency Plans

§ What is the content of an effectivecontingency plan?

§ In formulating contingency plans, shouldentities focus on comprehensiveness orconcentrate on specific events and “hotspots”?

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CHAPTER 18EDUCATION AND OUTREACH


James C. Washburne, Adjunct Assistant ProfessorDepartment of Hydrology and Water Resources

The University of Arizonaand



Workshop Participants: James Washburne (facilitator), Joy Colucci, Mary Glueck, Robert Hall, WilliamHarris, Sandra Henderson, R. Klimisch, Richard Reinhardt, Barbara Rose, Michael Stenburg

Public Information and Participation

Many aspects of climate variability are poorlyunderstood and appear to be unrelated to manypeople's daily lives. There are few aspects of ourlives, however, that are not affected by climate.Climate impacts agriculture, recreation, energyconsumption, and ranching, to name a few.

Educators need to increase the public'sawareness of climate variability and relatedissues, including:

• fundamentals of earth-system sciencewith an emphasis on the integration ofbiological, physical, and socialsciences;

• a renewed stress on our role asstewards of the environment;

• an appreciation for the long-term costsand benefits of everyday action;

• the nature of uncertainty in our searchfor new and improved understandingsof our role on planet earth.

Before politicians and industry are able to enactsignificant institutional change, many basicpublic attitudes and conceptions need to beupdated to ensure meaningful publicparticipation.

Many environmental issues such as climatechange defy all-encompassing solutions. The

public must be as active in defining these issuesas they are in learning from them. Educatorscannot be effective without the support andcollaboration of many regional and local groupssuch as neighborhood associations andenvironmental groups. Clearly publicinvolvement and participation is critical. Amongthe groups that need to be drawn together arescientists, educators, parents, consumers, andindustry.

K-12 Education

Outreach endeavors need to target the K-12segment of the population to create and increaseits understanding of the impacts of climatevariability and the potential to affect it. Educators are a critical link between today'syouths and society-at-large.

Teachers play an important role in educatingyouth by structuring information, publicizingalternative choices, explaining risk assessmentand uncertainty, dispelling misconceptions,avoiding sensationalism, and putting fads intoperspective.

With respect to climate variability, teachers canmake a difference by focusing on primary issuessuch as earth-system science, environmentalstewardship, a holistic understanding of natureand society, conservation and recycling,exploring the limits of growth, and case studiesof human impacts.

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Schools are not the only medium where studentscan learn about climate variability. The climate-change community needs to target othercommunication sources such as the Internet,news media, and popular media (e.g., MTV,PBS).

These sources may not be the best in terms ofscientific content, but they are certainly the majorinformation source for this age group.

Educators, particularly in the Southwest, alsoneed to be mindful of language and culturaldifferences. The reality is that presentations andliterature must be in Spanish (and in somecases, in other languages) as well as in English.

They must present climate variability as anon-discriminating phenomenon that affects allcultures in the Southwest, and that mitigationrequires the cooperation of both developed anddeveloping countries. Schools and teachersalso need to take advantage of resourceslocated in their communities.

Such resources include field trips to industriesand businesses that are aware of their impactson the environment and are doing something tocurb those impacts. Guest speakers fromgovernment, industry, and academia can alsovisit schools to give talks to increase studentawareness of climate variability.

Adult Education and ProfessionalTraining

Education is a continuing process that does notstop once we have completed high school. Theeducation of adults cannot be overlooked, forthey too play a significant role in the lives oftoday's youths by setting examples.

Adults need to be able to translate technicalissues into more understandable and commonelements, and to live according to soundenvironmental principles.

The ways in which adults view the environmentand climate variability is reflected explicitly andimplicitly by lifestyle choices. They need to beinformed of the environmental consequences ofthese choices.

Informing this segment of the population canserve as a moderating influence to the effects ofclimate change and variability by preparing us toaccept the consequences of climate change,describing alternative lifestyles and copingstrategies, and realigning publicexpectations with environmental realities.

Educating the public on these issues will requiretraining on the part of the climate-changecommunity. Educators are critical stakeholdersin assessing and defining the impact of regionalclimate variability. Their task is to help the publicunderstand the importance of our investment inscience.

Educators influence basic social andenvironmental behavior, assimilate and translatecomplex issues, develop focused scienceexhibits and are respected leaders of theircommunity.

There is a need for more professional-trainingseminars and workshops to train educators onclimate-change issues.

These seminars and workshops must be atwo-way discussion, as scientists can learn fromeducators as well. Viewpoints from industry andstakeholders are also vital components thatneed to be included. Success and failures needto be examined so that we can learn from ourmistakes and improve upon our achievements.

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PART V

WRAP-UP SESSION

SEPTEMBER 5, 1997

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CHAPTER 19FINAL RECOMMENDATIONS

Wrap-up session report prepared by:


andMark Patterson, Graduate Research Associate


Tucson, AZ

Wrap-up Session Participants: Diana Liverman (facilitator), Roger Bales, Bill Erickson, Robert Gerard,Robert Hackenberg, Holly Hartman, Hoyt Johnson III, David Kirtland, Mitchel McClaran, Linda Mearns,Robert Merideth, Ann Phillips, Kelly Redmond, Richard Reinhardt, Carlos Rincon, Dennis Sundie, RobertThompson, Robert Varady, Teri Ward, James Washburne, Marvin Waterstone

Recommendations from 18 attendees weresubmitted to the conference's organizingcommittee on the final day of discussion. Whilemost attendees contributed more than onerecommendation, there was significant overlapamong the various submissions.

After reviewing the submissions, the finalrecommendations are presented here in sevenbroad categories. These categories are not

mutually exclusive, as there are somecrosscutting themes found in several categories.The following is a summary of the sevencategories listed in order of perceived (by theattendees) importance.

The list of recommendations is presented on thepages that follow.

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Recommendations: Information/Data

1. Create a clearinghouse for data.

• Archive historical and current climate data.

• Provide public access to these data.

• Identify users and their information and data needs.

2. Assess decisionmaking processes

3. Identify what data are required for making decisions and who the users are.

4. Provide policymakers with information on who is affected by climate changes,what geographic areas are affected, how these people and areas are affected,and potential mitigation strategies.

• Identify how stakeholders use information in making decisions.

• Researchers/scientists should frame the issues of climate change in a formunderstandable to stakeholders.

• Stakeholders need to assume a more active role in guiding research directionsand providing feedback to researchers and scientists.

• Use in situ data with remotely-sensed imagery as a data source.

• Incorporate data with GIS to produce maps showing spatial extent of climatechange.

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Recommendations: Climate Forecasting and Hydrological Modeling

5. Provide better climate forecasting.

• Improve seasonal to intra-annual forecasts of precipitation frequency andintensity.

• Downscale long-term forecasts to usable formats.

• Predict the regional and local impacts of El Niño.

• Use data from the Coop Observation Network to predict climate.

• Develop model for reproducing large scale atmospheric features of the summermonsoon.

6. Provide better hydrological modeling.

• Improve hydrologic models to predict/estimate overall water budget.

• Use water budget as foundation for defining climate variables.

Recommendations: Market Responses to Climate Change

7. Develop improved understanding of pricing of resources.

• Will water and energy stresses in the Southwest lead to full-cost pricing?

• Will externalities (e.g. pollution) be incorporated into allocation mechanisms?

• What are the costs for mitigating pollution, and who will pay them?

• What is the net present value of a future gallon of fresh water?

8. Develop improved understanding of consumer behavior

• Can consumer behavior (fossil-fuel consumption) be modified via the market?

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Recommendations: Indigenous Knowledge & Southwest Perspective

9. Learn from indigenous knowledge.

• There is a need to incorporate indigenous knowledge about climate in theSouthwest into existing databases.

• Indian tribes need to be considered as stakeholders, as they have much“non-scientific” knowledge to contribute in the forms of songs, verse, anddrawing.

10. Learn from the southwestern experience.

• If the rest of the U.S. becomes drier and hotter, those areas can learn fromadaptations in the Southwest.

• Highlight the Southwest’s unique position of being able to adapt to climateextremes.

Recommendations: Health Issues

11. Develop better understanding of how climate change might affect publichealth.

• What are the effects of climate change on water quality and sanitation?

• Is a lower socioeconomic status related to an increased vulnerability of healthproblems?

• How will climate change affect the incidence of vector-borne diseases fromwater, mosquitoes, and rodents?

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Recommendations: Sensitivity Analyses by Sector

12. Utilize sensitivity analyses to better understand vulnerability and responses.

• What are regional/local variations in vulnerability?

• How are uncertainty and vulnerability measured?

• What is the robustness and resiliency for each of various sectors?

Recommendations: Ecosystem Monitoring

14. Use ecosystems as natural benchmarks to measure change and resiliency toclimate change.

15. Develop appropriate management strategies.

• Land-management agencies must develop common standard or protocol formanaging ecosystems.

• Long-term management approaches are required.

• Ecosystem health can be used as a baseline to examine impacts of climatechange.

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PART VI

APPENDICES

A. SYMPOSIUM & WORKSHOP PROGRAMS

Documents

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST: …geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/swclimatereport.pdf · 11 CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE SOUTHWEST IMPACTS, INFORMATION NEEDS,