CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC: REGIMES, MECHANISMS, TRENDS, IMPACTS ON COMMERCIAL FISH STOCKS

Andrei S. Krovnin, Boris N. Kotenev,

and George P. Moury

Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO)

PICES 2012 Meeting 11-20 October 2013, Nanaimo, BC, Canada

Moscow, Russia

Data 1951-2013: •Commonly used spatiotemporal datasets : ERSST v.3b (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ersst/), SLP and H500 (www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/ data.ncep.reanalysis.html); 1950-2012: •Time series of various climatic indices available from www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/climateindices/ and the NPGO index, from www.o3d.org/npgo/; • Data on Russian salmon catches (1911-2012) (VNIRO, 1986,

NPAFC), recruitment of EK (1963-2009) and WK (1972-2001) walleye pollock (TINRO-Center)

WARMING TREND IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AS

SHOWN BY EOF2 PC (14%) OF SSTA FIELD, 1900-2012

Warming trend in the North Pacific in 1950-2012 as shown by EOF3 PC (10.9%) OF SSTA FIELD, 1950-2012 (a);

correlation pattern between PC3 and H500 in the NH (b) and over the globe (c)

(a)

(b)

(c)

Climatic Indices associated with the NWP area

1971 1987

2004

2005

SLPA in Siberian High (Irkutsk)

Correlation patterns of SLP (DJF) at Irkutsk station with:

H500, 1951-2012 SST, 1951-2012

SST, 1987-2012

Correlation patterns of East Asian winter (DJF) monsoon index with:

H500, 1951-2012 SST, 1951-2012

SST, 1987-2012

First 5 EOFs (78.2%) of mean winter (I-IV) SSTA field in the NP, 1972-2013

EOF1 (36.8%) EOF4 (6.6%)

EOF2 (18.1%) EOF5 (6.0%)

EOF3 (10.7%)

First 5 PCs (78.2%) of mean winter (I-IV) SSTA field in the NP, 1972-2013

1999

1995

1990

1988

1984

PC1 (36.8%)

PC2 (18.1%)

PC3 (10.7%)

PC5 (6.0%)

PC4 (6.6%)

Correlation patterns of the first 5 PCs with H500, 1972-2013

PC1

PC2

PC3

PC4

PC5

EOF’s of SSTA field (1951-1988)

VARIABLE NAME PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5

31.4% 20.3% 11.1% 10.2% 7.2%

Scandinavian pattern 0,34 0,04 0,03 -0,62 -0,26

Polar/Eurasia pattern -0,23 -0,05 -0,17 0,31 -0,41

East Atlantic pattern -0,27 -0,48 0,21 -0,29 0,27

Tropical/NH pattern -0,30 0,55 0,08 -0,15 0,02

North Atlantic Oscillation -0,50 0,05 -0,34 0,77 0,13

Pacific Decadal Oscillation 0,53 -0,76 0,02 -0,12 -0,18

North Pacific Index -0,65 0,75 0,01 -0,01 0,08

Arctic Oscillation -0,71 0,26 -0,14 0,71 0,07

West Pacific pattern -0,40 -0,31 0,24 -0,44 0,48

Winter Monsoon Index 0,84 0,39 -0,03 -0,03 -0,05

SLP (Irkutsk) 0,87 0,42 -0,05 -0,07 0,02

PC5 (SSTA) 0,09 0,02 0,67 -0,29 -0,11

PC3 (SSTA) -0,54 -0,33 0,37 -0,10 0,07

PC4 (SSTA) 0,35 0,16 0,67 0,27 0,14

PC2 (SSTA) 0,04 -0,51 0,05 -0,25 0,79

PC1 (SSTA) -0,42 0,63 0,04 -0,06 0,63

PC1 (SLPA) -0,58 0,79 0,02 -0,04 0,08

PC2 (SLPA) 0,56 0,11 0,02 0,18 -0,56

PC3 (SLPA) 0,35 0,45 0,10 -0,12 0,14

PC4 (SLPA) 0,13 0,23 -0,07 0,27 0,21

PC5 (SLPA) 0,19 0,46 0,27 0,20 0,30

PC6(SLPA) 0,82 0,03 0,22 -0,11 -0,04

Loadings of the first six PCs of the 22 climatic time series for 1972-2013

VARIABLE NAME PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 PC6

33.7% 23.9% 10.2% 9.3% 8.4% 4.9%

East Atlantic pattern -0,05 -0,55 0,07 -0,07 -0,36 -0,31

Tropical/NH pattern 0,02 0,01 -0,26 -0,67 -0,42 0,27

North Atlantic Oscillation 0,26 -0,18 -0,81 0,13 -0,21 0,37

Pacific Decadal Oscillation 0,71 -0,66 0,10 0,10 -0,39 -0,10

North Pacific Index -0,89 0,45 -0,03 -0,03 0,05 0,05

Arctic Oscillation -0,14 0,08 -0,86 -0,10 -0,07 0,41

West Pacific pattern -0,27 -0,64 0,07 0,18 -0,55 -0,25

Winter Monsoon Index 0,62 0,68 0,04 -0,01 0,09 0,05

SLP (Irkutsk) 0,68 0,70 0,08 0,03 0,09 0,11

PC6 (SSTA) 0,09 -0,07 -0,30 -0,39 0,70 0,01

PC5 (SSTA) 0,25 0,40 -0,46 0,42 0,12 -0,52

PC3 (SSTA) -0,07 -0,21 -0,41 -0,74 -0,48 -0,17

PC4 (SSTA) 0,10 0,16 -0,30 -0,81 -0,50 -0,23

PC2 (SSTA) -0,11 -0,57 0,05 0,14 -0,35 -0,33

PC1 (SSTA) 0,70 -0,69 0,15 0,14 -0,24 -0,10

PC1 (SLPA) -0,85 0,51 -0,03 -0,11 0,06 0,08

PC2 (SLPA) 0,38 0,48 0,01 0,08 0,58 0,21

PC3 (SLPA) 0,33 0,31 0,10 -0,59 -0,21 0,25

PC4 (SLPA) -0,16 0,35 0,08 -0,02 0,10 0,38

PC5 (SLPA) 0,29 0,45 -0,40 -0,13 0,12 -0,25

PC6(SLPA) 0,33 0,44 0,38 0,21 0,17 -0,09

Loadings of the first six PCs of the 21 climatic time series for 1951-1988

Association of East Kamchatka pollock recruitment (2+) with winter SSTA field in the NP and Arctic

Oscillation Index Anomalies of recruitment

Recruitment and AO index

Recruitment and SST

Association of AO index with SST

Association of West Kamchatka pollock recruitment (3+) with winter SSTA field in the NH

1982-2012

PDO

Two periods of high salmon production in Russia and their

association with winter SSTA in the NP

1916-1946

Warming trend

Correlation patterns between salmon catches and mean winter SSTA field for two

high salmon periods

Pink salmon catches (10*5 tons) in the western Bering Sea

Conclusion

• Warming trend in the North Pacific may be associated with the inter-hemispheric climatic processes;

• The recent period of prominent warming in the ocean resulted from strengthening of positive phases of the AO and NAO, accompanied by essential weakening of the Siberian High and winter East Asian monsoon. This weakening may be the main contributor to the warming process, first of all, in the western half of the ocean.

Thank you for attention