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Climate  Change  in  the  United  States

Third  Na)onal  Climate  Assessment

Philip  MoteOregon  State  University

NCA  steering  commi>ee  member  and  author

Date Name  of  Mee+ng

The  NCA  Process

Inclusive,  broader  exper+se   300  authors   60  member  Federal  Advisory  Commi>eePublic  engagement   Listening  sessions  around  the  country   Request  for  informa+on,  input  reportsFocus  on  sustained  assessment   Intermediate  products  planned  as  well  as     quadrennial  reports

Kathy  Jacobs

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The  NCA  Process,  con+nuedNew  topics  covered   Oceans,  Coasts,  Urban,  Rural,  Land  use   Cross-­‐sector  links  like  Energy/Water/LandNew  format   Digital  products  and  interac+ve  website   Highlights,  Global  Change  Info  Service,  traceable  accountsExtensive  Review   Na+onal  Academy  of  Sciences,  agencies,  public  review,  responses  to  all  comments

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Human-­‐induced  climate  change  has  moved  firmly  into  the  present  

©  Dave  M

ar+n/AP/Corbis

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Americans  are  already  feeling  the  effects  of  increases  in  some  types  of  extreme  weather  

and  sea  level  rise©  Stan  Honda/AFP/Ge>

y  Images

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Impacts  are  apparent  in  every  region  and  in  important  sectors  including  health,  water,  

agriculture,  energy,  and  more©  Sco>

 Olson/Ge>

y  Images

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There  are  many  ac+ons  we  can  take  to  reduce  future  climate  change  and  its  impacts  and  to  

prepare  for  the  impacts  we  can’t  avoid

©Dennis  Schroeder,  N

REL

©Esperanza  Stancioff,  U

Maine  Extension  and  M

aine  Sea  Grant

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The  World  is  Warming

Numerous  independent  lines  of  evidence  demonstrate  that  warming  has  con+nued.

Because  human-­‐induced  warming  is  super-­‐imposed  on  a  naturally  varying  climate,  rising  temperatures  are  not  evenly  distributed  across  the  globe  or  over  +me.  

Ten Indicators of A Warming World

from climate chapter

from climate chapter

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Human  ac+vity  is  the  primary  cause

©Tom

 Mihalek/Reuters/Corbis

©  Phillip  J.  Redm

an,  U.S.  Geological  Survey

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Carbon  Emissions  in  the  Industrial  Age

23 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES

2: OUR CHANGING CLIMATE

relevant indicators such as growing season length have been observed in many areas. Worldwide, the observed changes in aver-age conditions have been accompanied by increasing trends in extremes of heat and heavy precipitation events, and decreases in extreme cold.4

Natural drivers of climate cannot explain the recent observed warming. Over the last five decades, natural factors (solar forcing and volcanoes) alone would actu-ally have led to a slight cooling (see Figure 2.3).5

The majority of the warming at the global scale over the past 50 years can only be explained by the effects of human influ-ences,5,6,7 especially the emissions from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) and from deforestation. The emis-sions from human influences that are affecting climate include heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), meth-ane, and nitrous oxide, and particles such as black carbon (soot), which has a warm-ing influence, and sulfates, which have an overall cooling influence (see Appendix 3: Climate Science Supplement for further discussion).8,9 In addition to human-in-duced global climate change, local climate can also be affected by other human fac-tors (such as crop irrigation) and natural variability (for example, Ashley et al. 2012; DeAngelis et al. 2010; Degu et al. 2011; Lo and Famiglietti 201310).

The conclusion that human influences are the primary driver of recent climate change is based on multiple lines of independent evidence. The first line of evidence is our fundamental understanding of how certain gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in these gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from reconstructions of past climates using evidence such as tree rings, ice cores, and corals. These show that global surface temperatures over the last several decades are clearly unusual, with the last decade (2000-2009) warmer than any time in at least the last 1300 years and perhaps much longer.11

Figure 2.2. Global annual average temperature (as measured over both land and oceans) has increased by more than 1.5°F (0.8°C) since 1880 (through 2012). Red bars show temperatures above the long-term average, and blue bars indicate temperatures below the long-term average. The black line shows atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO

2)

concentration in parts per million (ppm). While there is a clear long-term global warming trend, some years do not show a temperature increase relative to the previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are due to natural processes, such as the effects of El Niños, La Niñas, and volcanic eruptions. (Figure source: updated from Karl et al. 20091).

Global Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

Figure 2.3. Observed global average changes (black line), model simulations using only changes in natural factors (solar and volcanic) in green, and model simulations with the addition of human-induced emissions (blue). Climate changes since 1950 cannot be explained by natural factors or variability, and can only be explained by human factors. (Figure source: adapted from Huber and Knutti29).

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Final version pg 23

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Future  Climate  Change  Depends  Primarily  on  Emissions  Levels

©  Jim

 West/im

agebroker/Corbis

16

495

Climate Change Impacts in the United States

CHAPTER 21NORTHWEST

INFORMATION DRAWN FROM THIS CHAPTER IS INCLUDED IN THE HIGHLIGHTS REPORT AND IS IDENTIFIED BY THIS ICON

Recommended Citation for Chapter

Mote, P., A. K. Snover, S. Capalbo, S. D. Eigenbrode, P. Glick, J. Littell, R. Raymondi, and S. Reeder, 2014: Ch. 21: North-

west. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Rich-

mond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 16–1-nn.

ISBN

On the Web: http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/northwest

Convening Lead Authors

Philip Mote, Oregon State University

Amy K. Snover, University of Washington

Lead AuthorsSusan Capalbo, Oregon State University

Sanford D. Eigenbrode, University of Idaho

Patty Glick, National Wildlife Federation

Jeremy Littell, U.S. Geological Survey

Richard Raymondi, Idaho Department of Water Resources

Spencer Reeder, Cascadia Consulting Group

17

496 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THE UNITED STATES

NORTHWEST21KEY MESSAGES1. Changes in the timing of streamflow related to changing snowmelt are already observed and will

continue, reducing the supply of water for many competing demands and causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences.

2. In the coastal zone, the effects of sea level rise, erosion, inundation, threats to infrastructure and habitat, and increasing ocean acidity collectively pose a major threat to the region.

3. The combined impacts of increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are already causing widespread tree die-off and are virtually certain to cause additional forest mortality by the 2040s and long-term transformation of forest landscapes. Under higher emissions scenarios, extensive conversion of subalpine forests to other forest types is projected by the 2080s.

4. While the agriculture sector’s technical ability to adapt to changing conditions can offset some adverse impacts of a changing climate, there remain critical concerns for agriculture with respect to costs of adaptation, development of more climate resilient technologies and management, and availability and timing of water.

With craggy shorelines, volcanic mountains, and high sage deserts, the Northwest’s complex and varied topography contributes to the region’s rich climatic, geographic, social, and ecologic diversity. Abundant natural resources – timber, fisheries, productive soils, and plentiful water – remain important to the region’s economy.

Snow accumulates in mountains, melting in spring to power both the region’s rivers and economy, creating enough hydropower (40% of national total)1 to export 2 to 6 million megawatt hours per month.2 Snowmelt waters crops in the dry interior, helping the region produce tree fruit (number one in the world) and almost $17 billion worth of agricultural commodities, including 55% of potato, 15% of wheat, and 11% of milk production in the United States.3

Seasonal water patterns shape the life cycles of the region’s flora and fauna, including iconic salmon and steelhead, and forested ecosystems, which cover 47% of the landscape.4 Along more than 4,400 miles of coastline, regional economic centers are juxtaposed with diverse habitats and ecosystems that support thousands of species of fish and wildlife, including commercial fish and shellfish resources valued at $480 million in 2011.5

Adding to the influence of climate, human activities have altered natural habitats, threatened species, and extracted so much water that there are already conflicts among multiple

users in dry years. More recently, efforts have multiplied to balance environmental restoration and economic growth while evaluating climate risks. As conflicts and tradeoffs increase, the region’s population continues to grow, and the regional consequences of climate change continue to unfold. The need to seek solutions to these conflicts is becoming increasingly urgent.

The Northwest’s economy, infrastructure, natural systems, public health, and vitally important agriculture sector all face important climate change related risks. Those risks – and possible adaptive responses – will vary significantly across the region.6 Impacts on infrastructure, natural systems, human health, and economic sectors, combined with issues of social and ecological vulnerability, will play out quite differently in largely natural areas, like the Cascade Range or Crater Lake National Park, than in urban areas like Seattle and Portland (Ch. 11: Urban),7 or among the region’s many Native American tribes, like the Umatilla or the Quinault (Ch. 12: Indigenous Peoples).8

As climatic conditions diverge from those that determined patterns of development and resource use in the last century, and as demographic, economic, and technological changes also stress local systems, efforts to cope with climate change would benefit from an evolving, iterative risk management approach.9

Edited by:

Meghan M. Dalton

Philip W. Mote

Amy K. Snover

C!"#$%& C'$()& "( %'& N*+%',&-%Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities

30 authors, 2+ countries, 601

review comments

occri.net/reports

Dalton et al. Fig 2.5a

Changes in extreme precipitation (North American Climate

Change Assessment Project)

Dalton et al. Fig 2.9

Future climate

•Warming already underway; will be warmer in all seasons, how much is uncertain

•Beyond ~2040, amount of warming depends on GHG emissions now

•Precipitation changes likely to be indistinguishable from natural variability, except possibly drying summers

•Summer likely to warm more than other seasons

Decreasing summer flow in snowmelt watersheds

NCA Fig 21.1

NCA Fig 21.2b

FINAL (3.3.09) – Page 60

Figure 8. Projected average monthly streamflow for a rain dominant watershed (Chehalis

River at Porter), transient rain-snow watershed (Yakima River at Parker), and snowmelt

dominant watershed (Columbia River at The Dalles). Hydrographs represent monthly

averages of simulated daily streamflow by the VIC model for the historic period (1916-

2006) and three future periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) using the A1B SRES scenario.

FINAL (3.3.09) – Page 60

Figure 8. Projected average monthly streamflow for a rain dominant watershed (Chehalis

River at Porter), transient rain-snow watershed (Yakima River at Parker), and snowmelt

dominant watershed (Columbia River at The Dalles). Hydrographs represent monthly

averages of simulated daily streamflow by the VIC model for the historic period (1916-

2006) and three future periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) using the A1B SRES scenario.

Dello, OCCRI; Hamlet, UWlike NCA Fig 21.2a

water

•Effects of warming already apparent in many basins: earlier snowmelt, lower summer flow

•Largest future changes in summer flow will be in mild snowy basins

Fig 21.3

Risks to forests

Fig 21.7a

For 2.2°F global warming

Fig 21.7b

Main concerns

•Loss of timber production

•Loss of subalpine forests

•Air quality - health effects

Agriculture•Longer growing

season

•Drought stress

•CO2 fertilization

•Chilling requirements

•Pests

FINAL (3.3.09) – Page 60

Figure 8. Projected average monthly streamflow for a rain dominant watershed (Chehalis

River at Porter), transient rain-snow watershed (Yakima River at Parker), and snowmelt

dominant watershed (Columbia River at The Dalles). Hydrographs represent monthly

averages of simulated daily streamflow by the VIC model for the historic period (1916-

2006) and three future periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s) using the A1B SRES scenario.

Impacts on agriculture

! 12!

Milk%and%dairy,%%$3.1%%

Ca1le%and%calves,%%$2.9%%

Fruits,%%nuts%and%berries,%%%

$2.6%%

Grains,%oilseeds,%dry%beans,%%$2.1%%

Vegetables,%%$1.9%%

Other%crops%%and%hay,%%$1.9%%

Nursery,%%$1.4%%

Other%products,%%$0.6%%Poultry%and%eggs,%%$0.3%%

•  Direct%heat%stress%effects%on%the%animals%

•  Changes%in%forage%quality%

•  Heat%and%drought%stress,%changes%in%precipitaNon%regimes%

•  Effects%on%chilling%regimes,%pests%and%diseases%

•  CO2%ferNlizaNon%benefits%•  Reduced%availability%of%water%for%

irrigaNon%

•  Heat%and%drought%stress%•  Changes%in%precipitaNon%

regimes%that%affect%farming%operaNons%

•  CO2%ferNlizaNon%benefits%•  Reduced%availability%of%water%

for%irrigaNon%

•  CO2%ferNlizaNon%benefits%•  Reduced%availability%of%water%

for%irrigaNon%

201! 202!

6.4.1 Annual Crops 203!

6.4.1.1 Dryland Cereal Cropping Systems 204!

The semiarid portions of central Washington and the Columbia Plateau in Washington, 205!

Oregon, and Idaho support cereal-based cropping systems without irrigation. The region can be 206!

subdivided into agroclimatic zones (Douglas et al. 1992) ranging from a warm, dry zone (located 207!

in the dryland cereal and hay production areas, fig. 6.2) where winter wheat-fallow production 208!

predominates, to cooler, wet zones (located in the non-irrigated mixed crops areas, fig. 6.2) 209!

where continuous cropping incorporates cool season legumes in rotation with spring and winter 210!

cereals. Depending upon emission scenarios and projected dates, these dryland regions are 211!

vulnerable to projected reductions in summer precipitation and warming, which potentially 212!

reduce yields or exacerbate production challenges on marginal lands, as is currently the case in 213!

the western portions of the dryland cereal areas of central Washington. Projected increases in 214!

Dalton et al. Fig 6.3

Climate

Health effects of climate: pathways

Weather

Air pollution

Pollen

Microbial contamination

and transmission

Crop yield

Heat related illness and death

Effects of extreme weather

Effects of pollution

Allergic diseases

Infectious diseasesWater-, food-, and vector-

borne diseases

Food insecurityadapted from Haines and Patz (2004) adaptation Dalton et al. Fig 7.1

•Oregon Health Authority study: 10°F higher temps -> 3x more heat related effects

•Wind storms: Columbus Day 46 fatalities, December 2007 18

•Wildfires (CA): more hospitalizations from respiratory problems

Observed effects

•Connections to land and resources recognized in treaty: usual & accustomed

•Unique challenges with climate change: resources changing, but are viewed more significantly than by the dominant culture

•Climate adaptation efforts (e.g. Swinomish)

Tribal dimensions

Conclusions

•We are moving rapidly to an unfamiliar environment

•Both risks and benefits of change - minimize risks and maximize benefits if change is slow, consequences are anticipated

•Sustained process of analysis, engagement, and action required

not part of any Climate Assessment reports