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Climatic and hydrologic analysis and monitoring at SENAMHI
Dr. Waldo Lavado Casimiro Dr. Wilson Suarez Alayza
PERÚ
Ministerio del Ambiente
Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología SENAMHI
Studies at SENAMHI
• Water Resources. • Food Security. • Air Quality. • Climate Variability and Change. • Synoptic Meteorology. • Climate Change Impacts.
DGIA DGA DGH DGM
www.senamhi.gob.pe/rpga
SUMMARY
• Hydroclimatological network. • Glacier and Hydrological
Monitoring in the Andes (PRAA Project).
• PACC project first Hydrological results
PERU
Surface : 1 285 220 Km2
27 climate zones different in Peru (SENAMHI,2005)
Drainages: Pacific, Titicaca Lake and Amazonas.
ENSO impact Droughts Glacier recession Floods Frost
Hydrological network at SENAMHI
AMAZONAS Total 69 PACIFIC
Total 53 TITICACA Total 19
AMAZONAS Discharges 8 Level 61
PACIFIC Discharges 25 Levels 28
TITICACA Discharges 16 Levels 3
Climatological network 1970-2000
155 st. for rainfall, 112 st. for tmax, 110 st. for tmin. and 120 st. tmed.
CLIMATOLOGICS MAPS (1970-1999)
Daily observed rainfall data (1998-2009). Total: 413 gauge stations /Pacific: 200/Titicaca: 36/ Amazonas: 177
Daily rainfall network
TRMM daily validation MONTHLY CYCLES 2003- 2009
2003- 2009 CLIMATOLOGY TRMM daily validation
Taylor Diagrams (2003-2009) for drainage O: Observed / T : TRMM / C : CMORPH
0
2
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10
0
3
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12
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.50.4
0.30.20.10
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
Co r re l a t i on Coef f i c i e n
t
RMSD
a)Pacific
OTC
P
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
3
6
9
12
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.50.4
0.30.20.10
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
Co r re l a t i on Coef f i c i e n
t
RMSD
b)Titicaca
OT
C
P
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
3
6
9
12
1
0.99
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.50.4
0.30.20.10
Sta
ndar
d de
viat
ion
Co r re l a t i on Coef f i c i e n
t
RMSD
c)Amazonas
O
TC
P
TRMM daily validation
Huaytapallana
Salkantay and Vilcanota
GLACIAR MONITORING
Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
Objectives -Monitoring the glaciers in the Vilcanota, Vilcabamba and Huaytapallana -Generate real information about climatic perturbations (climate variability) over 4500 m a.s.l.
Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0
1970 1987 2000 2006
613,0
411,4 383,0 343,6
Santa
-Spatial monitoring Permit know the win or lose of glacier coberture (some times volumes) through the use of Remote Sensing (images Landsat, Spot, Aster, etc.).
Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
0,0
40,0
80,0
120,0
160,0
1970 1988 1997 2008
155,1
72,8 56,6 49,0
Mantaro
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
1970 1988 1997 2008
38,1
7,8 5,7 4,0
Rimac
Landsat 5, 2008
Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
-Mass Balance Monitoring Search know the win or loss of glacier mass using “balizas”, permit know with precision the ELA position (Actually only work in that the UGRH at ANA).
Sembrado de balizas por la UGRH en el nevado Artesonraju
Control de densidad de la nieve en calicata instalada por la UGRH en el nevado Artesonraju
Glacier monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
-Quisoquipina Glacier in the Vilcanota Cordillera
Estacion Hidrologica?
Glacier monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
Route to install the station to the glacier Installation of the station
Station working “Balizas” Control with the help of UGRH
Climatic station to 5180 m a. s. l.
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
01-Oct
02-Oct
03-Oct
04-Oct
05-Oct
06-Oct
07-Oct
08-Oct
09-Oct
10-Oct
11-Oct
12-Oct
13-Oct
14-Oct
15-Oct
16-Oct
17-Oct
18-Oct
19-Oct
20-Oct
21-Oct
22-Oct
23-Oct
24-Oct
25-Oct
26-Oct
27-Oct
28-Oct
29-Oct
30-Oct
31-Oct
°C
Temperatura
Hourly temperature of October 2011.
Daily temperature of October 2011
Climatic station to 5180 m a. s. l.
Huaytapallana Glacier
Climatic Statión Hydrological Station Glacier Station
Hydroclimatic station According with SEDA-Huancayo.
Rainfall (include snow sensor) Temperature Atmospheric Pression Speed and Direction wind
Regla limnimetrica Sensores of Snow control
Monitoreo glaciar en la cordillera del Vilcanota, Huaytapallana y Vilcabamba
Huaytapallana
Vilcabamba Nevado Salkantay
Hydrological Control and partial Climatic Control
Summary -We monitoring the Vilcanota cordillera in the Quisoquipina glacier, missing the hydrological sensors. -The Huaytapallana cordillera is partially monitoring, missing hydrological monitoring and installation of climatic station over the glacier. -The Vilcabamba cordillera is monitoring parcially at climatic level and completly at hydrological level in the Salkantay glacier.
Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba
Current availability of water resources and future impacts of climate change on water resources of southern Peruvian
Andes - Cuzco and Apurimac Region PACC Project
Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project
Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project
Vlicanota basin
Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project
Periodo de Calibracion: 1999-2004
EFICIENCIA
NASH NASH LOG
Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project
Periodo de Validacion: 2005-2010
EFICIENCIA
NASH NASH LOG
Replica crecida Enero del 20101
Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project
• Modèls: – Modèle BCM2 (1.9° por 1.9°). – Modèle CSMK3 (1.9° per 1.9°) . – Modèle MIHR (1.1° por 1.1°).
DATA IPCC
• Scenarios (2001-2099) Hypothèse de stabilisation à 720 ppm CO2 (SRES A1B). Hypothèse de stabilisation à 550 ppm CO2 (SRES B1).
D’ après MRI global climate model (MRI-CGCM2.3.2)
A1B
B1
• Variables: – Précipitation – Température
Interpolation over Pisac basin using krigging
Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project
The modeling of the multiannual means of the different climate scenarios with 3 different GCM’s showed that generally there are more negative means than positive means. But there is no overall trend within the GCM’s visible. The trend depends on the model, thus the MIHR model clearly shows a trend towards negative values for the future.
Problems about Hydroglaciological studies in the Peruvian Andes
• Poorly distribution of hydroclimatological stations.
• Not enough qualified staff for Hydroglaciological studies (at present we do not have some University with this field) .
• Functions duplicates: several institutions with different project but with the same purpose.
• We are user of RCM that many times are not good for Peruvian Andes region.
CHALLENGES related to ACCION -More Hydroclimatological and Glacier Monitoring around Peru.
-Improve Hydroglaciological Models at little scale for glacier purposes.
-Validate satellite data (e.g. TRMM, CMORPH, PERSIANN, etc.) for evaluate
use in hydroclimatological and glaciological applications.
-Analysis of climate variability and analysis of extremes climatics(e.g.
Droughts, Floods).
-Improve CC scenarios through downscaling techniques overall in the Andes
region.
-Improve the capability of SENAMHI staff through education in related fields
to ACCION (e.g. Ph. D. or Mg. Sc.).
-Work with another institutions for use our studies in Adaptation to CC
(Diffusion).
Vicuñas frente al glaciar Quisoquipina Foto: Wilson Suarez
THANKS