Climatological impacts on tornado formation: could we be in for a much more destructive tornado seasons and can global climate be used effectively in predicting tornadoes?

Written by Eric Ogle Picture taken from News Channel 4 in

Norman Oklahoma. Picture taken from News Channel 4 In

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma of the May 3rd 1999 tornado.

What got me interested in tornadoes -At age 5, I saw the movie twister and

fell in love with it. -After the destruction of May 3rd 1999,

the idea of being a meteorologist stuck into my head because it was one of the many possibilities

-After seeing the show Storm Chasers, I knew for sure that meteorology is what I wanted to do.

-PHYSICAL BASIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE MORE OR LESS REMINDS ME OF THIS MOVIE.- THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW INTRODUCES THE IDEA OF GLOBAL WARMING-THE MOVIE REALLY SUCKED BUT IT GOT ME THINKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHAT REALLY COULD HAPPEN IF CLIMATE WERE TO CHANGE

SOME OF THE HEADLINES THAT MADE THE NEWS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING

Dem Sen. Boxer blames tornadoes on global warming — Plugs her carbon tax bill to fix bad weather: ‘This is climate change. We were warned about extreme weather…We need to protect our people’ – ‘Carbon could cost us the planet’ Taken from climatedepot.com

Sharknado Slams Los Angeles, Media Blames Global Warming. Taken from thinkprogress.org

What are the components of creating a tornado?

A very unstable atmosphereDew points of 70+ degrees Humidity's of 70% or higherTemperatures of at least 70 degrees or higherRight amount of wind shearLow level pressure system Right amount of vorticityThe right set up of the jet stream

THE IDEA OF INSTABILITY

I N S T A B I L I T Y

- Instability comes from Convective Available Potential Energy or CAPE

Air parcel is thought to start off at 1000 mb because 100 0 mb is right around the average of the mean surface pressure

Air parcel rises until it meets the temperature of the environment which is LCL

If there is enough energy to keep the parcel going, then it becomes warmer than the environment and that is where instability comes in.

P I C T U R E T A K E N F R O M I N T E R N E T T H U N D E R , G O N S K I

ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE

Atmospheric Moisture also plays a key role in tornado formation through accompanying the Instability process.

-The more moisture that is available, the more instability that is available

Even though there may be enough instability for an unstable atmosphere, sometimes there is a process which

we call a CAP.

CAP basically holds everything in place and prevents severe storms from happening.

Dr. Greg Forbes explains the capping inversion as like the hats that we wear on our heads.

THE IDEA OF INSTABILITY PART 2

Wind shear is turning of the winds with height.

-Especially in the formation of tornadoes, meteorologists look for strong wind shear values in the jet stream especially if the winds come through the bend of the jet stream. This is a high indicator of tornadoes.

Wind shearTaken from Twister data

online.

WIND SHEAR AND JET STREAM

-Created due to the changes in temperature and pressure that come from the poles and the equator.-Jet stream desc ribed in Summer time, described as a low level jet meaning the winds are at lower levels. Meteorologists, such as me, when looking for the possibility of tornadoes use 500 mb as the focal point for both wind shear and upper level winds.

JET STREAM

VORTICITY

Vorticity measures the amount of spin in relationship to the wind shear present at any time.

“There are 2 types of vorticity: 1.) horizontal velocity and 2.) Vertical Vorticity.” (Jeff Haby)

Vertical Velocity, as described by Jeff Haby, is most notorious with tornadoes because it shows how much spin there is in the vertical direction. Also seen in the 500mb range

Horizontal spin, also as described by Jeff Maby, is mostly noted in the atmosphere below 500mb and this is also a contributor to the formation of the tornadoes due to the veering of the winds at that level. Plus it is in the horizontal direction.

NOW THAT WE HIT UPON THE INVESTMENTS THAT TORNADOES NEED, HOW ARE THEY CREATED?

The first thing that needs to happen is cold moist air comes from the C0anadian regions and interacts with warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.

This is normally denoted with cold and warm fronts.

Once the cold and warm fronts converge, the warm moist air shoots upwards and creates clouds.

TORNADO FORMATION PART 2

These clouds rise up into what we call cumulonimbus clouds or towers. The formation of the anvil is evidence that a thunderstorm is now a supercell.

Wind speeds at different heights and at different directions cause the turning of the winds with height and these winds are normally in the horizontal direction.

There is a forcing, which forces the horizontal shear in the vertical direction which causes parts of the storm to rotate. One of the main parts of the storm is called the mesocyclone. At the bottom of the mesocyclone is the wall cloud, and if the spin is tight enough a funnel is formed and if a funnel touches the ground, then it becomes a tornado.

GET READY TO HAVE YOUR MIND BLOWN AWAY!! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

This is where the awesomeness

begins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

LOOKING AT THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY SINCE 1950PHOTO ON THE RIGHT IS TAKEN FROM AN ENERGY FORUM AND IT SHOWS HOW TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED WITH INCREASING CO2PHOTO ON THE LEFT SHOWS THE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE OVER THE LAST 50 YEARS. TAKEN FROM MATHEMATICS OF PLANET EARTH, (AN ONLINE WEBSITE).

TORNADO FORMATION VS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE LAST 60 YEARS

Taken from Energy forum

Tornado Count days Taken from USA

Tornadoes website

THE 3 FACTORS THAT ARE DECIDED UPON BY TEMPERATURES

Wind shear/Vorticity/Jet Stream

Atmospheric Moisture Content

Atmospheric instability.

Wind shear/Vorticity/Jet stream• Windshear/Jet stream/Vorticity, as described by Dr. Terry Deshler in

Physical Basis of Climate Change, is dependent upon a temperature gradient between the equator and the poles.

• IF the temperatures are closer together in value, then there is less of a gradient, which leads to a decrease in winds

Moisture content Atmospheric moisture absolutely loves

temperature. The higher the temperature, the more

moisture there will be

The Atmospheric instability

• Just Like Moisture, Atmospheric Instability loves a temperature change.

• The higher the temperature, the more excited the air parcel gets and the more energy that it has.

THE FUTURE OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS EFFECTS ON WINDSHEAR/JET STREAM/VORTICITY

- As stated before, windshear/Jet Stream/Vorticity depend on the temperature gradients

- As stated by Meghan Evans states “The wind shear will likely decrease due to a lower temperature contrast from pole to pole”

- The Wind shear and Jet stream are closely related so the Jet stream winds are likely to decrease and the vorticity will also see a decrease.

Climate Change in relation to Atmospheric Moisture

As the temperature increases, the amount of moisture increases.

The Environmental protection agency states “Heavy precipitation events will likely be more frequent. “

With the increase in storm coverage, there is the potential for more severe storms.

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/future.html

Climate Change with respect to Atmospheric Instability

As stated before, Atmospheric instability loves an increase in temperatures.

Meghan Evans of Accuweather states, “As the planet warms, the moisture content of the atmosphere will also increase. And that's the basic fuel that drives thunderstorms. It's where the storms get their energy from... as we warm the planet that will increase the energy available for producing storms[.]"(1)

SO THE QUESTION THAT YOU HAVE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR!!!!! CAN SCIENTISTS USE GLOBAL CLIMATE

CHANGE TO PREDICT TORNADOES????????

As of right now, the answer to that question is no. More information needs to be understood about

tornadoes. Tornadoes are too fine of scale to be accurately put into

models. Models need to be more refined. Meghan Evans states, “Since one major factor favors a

more conducive environment for severe thunderstorms to spark with a 142. warming climate and another is less conducive for severe thunderstorm organization, it is very difficult to determine how severe weather will change in the future.” (1)

QUESTIONS?????????

LITERATURE CITED Blanchard, David. “Assessing the Vertical Distribution of

Convective Available Potential Energy.” Weather and Forecasting. 13 (1998): 871. Web. 22 November 2013.

-Environmental Protection Agency. Future Climate Change. 1. Environmental Protection Agency. 1.Web. 22 November 2013

-Evans, Meghan. Are Tornadoes More Powerful due to Climate Change? 1. Accuweather. 15 June 2013. Web. 22 November 2013.

-Gonski, Rod: Internet Thunder. 1. NOAA. Web. 23 November 2013.

-Haby, Jeff. “Vorticity Basics” 1. The Weather Prediction. Web. 22 November 2013.

Literature Cited Part 2 -Knowles, Tony. Energy Forum. 1. National Energy

Policy Institute. Web. 15 November 2013.- Livingston, Ian. F0/EF0 through F5/EF5 U.S. Tornado

Trends, Plus a Look at Oklahoma and Alabama. 1. Web. 12 November 2013.

-Morano, Mark. Dem Sen. Boxer blames tornadoes on global warming — Plugs her carbon tax bill to fix bad weather: ‘This is climate change. We were warned about extreme weather…We need to protect our people’ – ‘Carbon could cost us the planet” 1. Climate Depot. 21 May 2013. Web. 21 November 2013

Literature Cited Part 3 Oklahoma News Channel 4. Oklahoma Tornado May

3rd 1999 (formation of tornado). 1. Youtube. Web. 21 March 2008. 22 November 2013.

Ray, M.L., Rogers, A.L. and McGowan, J.G. “Analysis of wind shear models and trends in different terrains.” 1 (2005):3-4. Web. 22 November 2013.

Romm, Jeremy. Sharknado slams Los Angeles. Media blames Global Warming. 1. Web. 12 July 2013. 22 November 2013.

The Day After Tomorrow. Google Images. Web. 22 November 2013

Twister Data. Web. 22 November 2013