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Closing the Culture Gap
Presentation by Al From
The Democratic Leadership Council's
National Conversation
Indianapolis, Indiana
July 16,2001
www.ndol.org
The Key to Breaking the Tiein American Politics
Closing the Cultural Gap
The Key to Breaking the TieIn American Politics
The New Electorate and the New Political Context
What we learned from the 2000 Election The New Democrat Formula for Closing the
Cultural Gap and Breaking the Tie in American Politics
The Parties at Parity
48.4 49.3 50 47.9 4849 47
0 0 0 0 3
505047.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
President ElectoralVote
Senate House State LegHouses
Democrat Republican Tied
Parity in 2000The Tie in American Politics
52.6
42.8 43
49.2 48.445.8
52.4
38
47.9
40.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1932-64 1968-88 1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican
The Parties at ParityThe Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics
52 52 5449 49 48 4951 49 49 49
45 44 46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Democrat Republican
The Parties at ParityThe Tie in the House
The Parties at ParityThe Reasons
The New Economy is Driving a New Electorate
The Political Arrangements that Shaped Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing
A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken Shape for the Information Era
The New Electorate
PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS
Industrial Era Working Class----------------------------------------------------Information Age Rising Learning Class-----------------------------------------------------
47
38
3234
2623
812
1618
2428
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Less than $30K More than $75K
Voters’ Family Incomes: 1980 to 2000
18
46
27
70
01020304050607080
WorkingClass
MiddleClass
UpperMid Class
OwnStock
An Affluent ElectorateCharacteristics of 2000 Voters
3342
61
74
01020304050607080
1980 2000
College Grads Some College
Educational Attainment
Percentage of voters with a college degree
8981
52
9 10 130
7
25
0 28
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 2000 2050 Projected
White Black Hispanic Asian
Diversity
29
0
43
0
28
00
10
20
30
40
50
Urban Suburban Rural
The Suburbs RulePercentage of Voters 2000
7867
88
160
92
57
0
50
100
150
200
1973 Today
Urban Suburban Rural
The Suburban SwingCongressional Seats
38.8
9.2
14.5 14.6
7.5
13.18.5
17.7
05
1015202530354045
1952 2000
Balt City Balt County PG County Montgomery
From City to SuburbPercentage of Statewide Vote
30 2819 23 26
70 7281 77 74
0
20
40
60
80
100
1980 1984 1992 1996 2000
Union Hshds Non-Union
The Union VoteComing Back But Still Below 1984
26
00
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1996 2000
Wired VotersPercentage of Voters Who Regularly Use Internet
Generational Change
In the 2000 Election
Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New Deal Era voters.
The dominant generations are the “skeptical
generations”--the Baby Boomers, GenXers and
GenYers.
40
3033
2924
21 20 20
36
49 4750
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1992 1996 2000
Conservatives Liberals Moderates
Political Views
4038
4238 39 3938
35 35
18
2627
3532
27272727
0
10
20
30
40
50
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican Independent
Party IdentificationPercentage of Voters
The 2000 Election
15 1429
6882
47
85 8672
3218
53
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican
The Diminishing Economic Class Divisions
Percentage of Electorate Won by Democrat
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
No HS HS Grad Some Col Col Grad Post Grad
The Missing MiddleDemocrats Win Least and Best Educated
4944 42 40 42 41
4650
55 57 55 56
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Under15K
15-30K 30-50K 50-75K 75-100K Over100K
Gore Bush
Missing the Mark
Populist Message Fails to Sway White Voters in 2000
Missing the TargetThe Failed Attempt to Appeal to White Men in 2000
Income
Education
-35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Post GradCollege GradSome CollegeHigh School GradHS Dropout
Over 100K75 - 100K50 – 75K30 – 50K15 – 30K
Under 15K
responsibility from all, and fosters a community of all, with a
Message Matters
If a candidate for President said this, would it have madeyou much more likely, somewhat more likely, somewhatless likely, or much less likely to vote for them forPresident?Top Arguments Ranked by “Much more likely”
MuchMoreLikely
More/LessLikely
I want to change the tone in Washington – enough fighting. Instead of point fingers and gridlock, I will find ways to worktogether in a bipartisan manner to get things done for America.
46 79/15
I believe in an America that offers opportunity for all , demands
government that equips all Americans with the tools they needfor economic success.
41 78/15
I believe very deeply that you have to be willing to stand up andfight no matter what powerful forces might be on the other side– big oil companies, big polluters, big pharmaceuticalcompanies, and big tobacco. This election is about the peoplev. the powerful .
41 70/24
(All Voters)
Message Matters
(Key Voter Categories B Much More Likely
Gore Voters
Bush Voters
Bush Swing
Change the Tone 42 51 57 Opportunity for All 45 36 44 People Vs. the Powerful 53 27 32
The Cultural Gap
National Democratic Margin
All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Men 48 +3 -1 -10 +9 Women 52 +8 +16 +11 +5 White Men 48 -3 -11 -24 +13 White Women 52 Even +5 -1 +6 White 81 -1 -3 -12 +9 Black 10 +73 +72 +81 -9 Hispanic 7 +36 +51 +27 +24
-3
7281
51
24
-12-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
1996 2000
White Black Hispanic
The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Race
3
-1
-10
8
16
11
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1992 1996 2000
Men Women
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin by Gender
010203040506070
Democrat Republican Other
The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin Among White Men and Women
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin By Marital Status
All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Married 65 -1 -2 -9 +7 No 35 +16 +19 -3 Child under 18 39 +2 +7 -7 +14 No 61 +8 +4 +4 Married/Child 31 -15 No 69 +7 Work Woman 31 (29)+10 +21 +19 +2 No 69 +3 -8 +11
The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin on Guns and Abortion
All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Gun Owner 48 -13 (37) -25 +12 No 52 +17 (63) +19 -2 Abortion Always Lgl 23 (34)+38 (25)+48 +45 +3 Mostly Lgl 33 (29)+11 (35)+22 +20 +2 Mostly Illeg 27 (23)-30 (25)-25 -40 +15 Always Illeg 13 (9)-39 (12)-45 -52 +7
The Cultural Gap
Democratic Margin by Religion All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Attend Church More / Weekly 14 Regularly -27 Weekly 28 (42) -12 -17 Monthly 14 +5 Seldom 28 +12 Never 14 +29 Protestant 54 -9 -9 -14 +5 Catholic 26 +9 +16 +3 +13 Jewish 4 +69 +62 +60 +2 White Prot 56 (of
whites) -14 -17 -29 +12
White Cath 25 (of whites)
+5 +7 -7 +14
The Cultural GapDemocratic Margin by Ideology, Party
and Role of Government All 2000 1992 1996 2000 96/2000 Liberal 20 +54 +67 +67 ---- Moderate 50 +16 +24 +8 +16 Conservative 29 -48 -51 -64 +13 Democrat 39 +67 +74 +75 -1 Republican 35 -63 -67 -83 +16 Independent 27 +6 +8 -2 +10 Govt. Should Do More 43 +44 (36) +52 (41) +51 +1 Do Less 53 -22 (55) -30 (52) -46 +16
Swing States GOP BaseDemo Base
The Swing States
The Swing States: Electoral Votes
Democratic Base States Dems Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 California 54 55 Connecticut 8 7 Delaware 3 3 D.C. 3 3 Hawaii 4 4 Illinois 22 21 Iowa 7 7 Maine 4 4 Maryland 10 10 Mass 12 12 Michigan 18 17 Minnesota 10 10 New Jersey 15 15 N. Mexico 5 5 New York 33 31 Oregon 7 7 Penn 23 21 R. Island 4 4 Vermont 3 3 Washington 11 11 Wisconsin 11 10 Total 267 260
Republican Base States Reps Won 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Idaho 4 4 Indiana 12 11 Kansas 6 6 Mississippi 7 6 Nebraska 5 5 N. Car 14 15 N. Dakota 3 3 Oklahoma 8 7 S. Car 8 8 S. Dakota 3 3 Texas 32 34 Utah 5 5 Virginia 13 13 Wyoming 3 3 Total 135 135
In Play States That Split 1992, 1996 & 2000 Electoral Votes State 2000 2004 Arizona 8 10 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 Florida 25 27 Georgia 13 15 Kentucky 8 8 Louisiana 9 9 Missouri 11 11 Montana 3 3 Nevada 4 5 N. Hamp 4 4 Ohio 21 20 Tennessee 11 11 W.Virginia 5 5 Total 136 143
The New Democrat Approach
What is a New Democrat?
New Democrats are the modernizers of the Democratic Party
We further our party’s enduring values with new and innovative ideas
Core Principles
The
New Democrat Philosophy
Opportunity & Growth Global Outlook
Empowering Government
Mutual ResponsibilityTraditional Values
The New Democrat Philosophy
America’s Basic Bargain
Opportunity for All Responsibility from All Community of All
Where New Democrats Stand
for economic growth and opportunityfor fiscal responsibilityfor work, not welfarefor strengthening familiesfor preventing crime and punishing criminalsfor non-bureaucratic, empowering governmentfor fostering a new sense of community and an ethic of
mutual responsibility by asking citizens to give something back to their country
12
52
34
12
50
35
15
53
30
14
54
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Solve Problems Equip People Stay Out
1997 1998 1999 2000
Role of GovernmentWhat is the Proper Role of the Federal Goverment?
17
56
2416
60
2116
63
1819
55
20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Social Programs Spur Growth Stay Out
1997 1998 1999 2000
Government and the EconomyWhat Role Should the Federal Goverment Play in the Economy?
Closing the Cultural GapLessons From the Clinton Victories
Promote Growth and Opportunity, Not RedistributionEmphasize New Democrat Positions on Cultural Issues
Like Crime and WelfareStand for Big Ideas, Not Big GovernmentSupport Family Friendly Policies that Help Parents
Raise KidsSupport a Strong National DefenseAvoid Polarizing Language on Divisive Issues Like
Abortion or Guns
The Winning Coalition in 2004
A New Democrat Majority for the 21st Century
The Democratic Base and Beyond Men and Women Multi-Racial and Multi-Ethnic Urban and Suburban Moderates as well as Liberals Working Class and “Rising Learning Class”
The Bottom LineIn a Time of Parity Message Matters More
The Next Progressive Majority will be built around ideas and values, not interest groups.How we frame our message is likely to be the difference between victory and defeat. The best government is the best politics. If we have good ideas that tend to the needs of ordinary Americans in their everyday lives, the politics will take care of itself.