CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook

8/13/2019 CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook

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H o u s i n g M a r k e t I n f o r m a t i o n

HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

Date Released:

C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n

Table of Contents

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Canada Edition

Fourth Quarter 2013

Housing starts: Housing startshave remained relatively stable since

March 2013 and are expected tocontinue this trend until mid-2014.In the latter half of 2014, housingstarts are forecast to moderate.

Total housing starts are expectedto decline to 185,000 units in 2013and then remain mostly unchanged,reaching 184,700 units in 2014.Single housing starts should accountfor a growing share of total startsthrough 2014.

Resales: Existing home sales areexpected to stay relatively unchangedin 2013 and then rise in the first half of2014 before moderating in the secondhalf of 2014. On an annual basis, sales

through the Multiple Listing Service(MLS)2 are expected to reach 456,700units in 2013, before seeing an increaseto 468,200 units in 2014.

Resale prices: The sales-to-newlistings ratio is expected to remain inor near balanced market conditionsover the forecast horizon. Nevertheless,the average MLSprice is anticipatedto grow 4.0 per cent in 2013, reflectingin part, increased sales in higher-pricedmarkets. In 2014, house prices areexpected to grow in line with inflationat 1.9 per cent. The average MLSpriceis forecast to rise to $378,000 in 2013and then to $385,200 in 2014.

Provincial spotlight: Housing startsare expected to rebalance regionally,with Western Canada gaining a largershare of new home constructionover the forecast horizon, due to asupportive economic environment.On the existing home market, Alberta

will continue to lead the country,experiencing overall resale activityand house price growth above thenational average.

2 National Outlook

6 Trends at a Glance

7 British Columbia

8 Alberta

9 Saskatchewan

10 Manitoba

11 Ontario

12 Quebec

13 New Brunswick

14 Nova Scotia

15 Prince Edward Island

16 Newfoundland and Labrador

17 Forecast Tables

2013: 185,000

2014: 184,700

2013: 456,700

2014: 468,200

Housing Starts:

Resales:

1 The outlook is subject to uncertainty. Although point forecasts are presented in this publication, CMHCalso presents forecast ranges and risks where appropriate. The forecasts included in this document reflectinformation available as of October 16, 2013.

2 Multiple Listing Service(MLS) is a registered trademark owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Canadian Housing Market: Housing startsto remain stable and resales to increasemodestly in 2014

Overview1


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Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

Housing Market Outlook- Canada Edition - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2013

Detailed National

Housing Outlook

Total housing startsrebalancing toward largershares of single starts in2013 and 2014

After declining in the first quarter of2013, total housing starts in Canada

exhibited a stable quarterly pathin the two last quarters and areexpected to show a similar trend forthe remainder of 2013. The trend3

in total housing starts edged up inSeptember while remaining closeto the range of roughly 182,000 to

188,000 units that was observedbetween March and August of 2013.This is in line with CMHCs previousforecasts and reflects the lag effect

between the new home market andthe existing home market, as salesthrough the MLShave trended highersince February 2013. As a result, total

annual housing starts are expectedto reach 185,000 units in 2013, downfrom 214,827 in 2012.

As the sources of economic growthin Canada shift from residentialinvestment and consumer spending

to exports and business investment,economic conditions are expectedto improve.

Employment and economic growthare expected to gain furthermomentum in 2014, but could be

offset by the impact of a potentialincrease in mortgage rates. Overall,

housing starts are expected to remainmostly stable at 184,700 units in 2014,

with most of the strength in the firsthalf of the year.

Economic uncertainty is reflected bya forecast range, varying from 179,300to 190,600 units for 2013 and from

163,700 to 205,700 units for 2014.

Overall, CMHC expects housing starts

to somewhat rebalance regionally andacross unit types by the end of theforecast horizon. This is expected tomaterialize in a shift toward a larger

share of total housing starts beingenumerated in the Western provinces,as opposed to Central Canada.Similarly, single housing starts

should account for a growingshare through 2014.

Single-detached startsrelatively more stable thanmulti-family starts

Since the late 1990s, single housingstarts as a share of total housingstarts have continuously declined, as

affordability of condominiums boostedmulti-family housing starts. While thistrend is expected to continue overthe longer term, single housing starts

will regain some of their share oftotal housing starts over the forecasthorizon, but only because multi-family

housing starts will be moderatingrelative to elevated levels in 2011and 2012.

About 77,200 single housing startsare expected to be registered in 2013,down 7.8 per cent from 83,657 in2012. This moderation is mostly driven

by slightly weaker employment andeconomic growth early in the year.

As these same factors improve, singlehousing starts are expected to exhibit

a stable growth path in 2014. Buildersare expected to closely match demandwhich will keep inventories of singleunits in line with historical averages.

The ratio of newly completed andunabsorbed single-detached housingunits per 10,000 population stood at2.04 units in the second quarter of

2013, which was below the historicalaverage of 2.14 units and 2.05 for thefirst quarter of 2013.

The single starts forecast for nextyear is 79,000 units. Single startsare expected to range between

74,800 and 79,600 units for 2013

and between 69,800 and 88,200units for 2014.

Multi-family starts expectedto decline in 2013 and stabilizein 2014

People aged between 25 and 34represent the bulk of the first-time

home buyer pool in the country.Typically, first-time home buyers aremore likely to enter homeownership

through the less expensive multi-familyhousing segment, especially in largercentres. By the end of the forecasthorizon and into 2015, all regions but

Quebec will see the growth rate oftheir population aged 25-34 declineaccording to Statistics Canadasprojections4. By the end of the current

decade, the growth rate of populationaged 25-34 will be negative or veryclose to zero in most regions and willbring downward pressure on demand

for multi-family housing.

3 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Monthly figures are adjusted to remove normal seasonal variationand multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment makes it possible to highlight the fundamental trends ofa series. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months.This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels. Multi-family starts consist of semi-detached,row, and apartment units.

4 Demographic forecasts are based on Statistics Canadas medium-growth population projection. Statistics Canada. Table 052-0005 Projected population, by projectionscenario, sex and age group as of July 1, Canada, provinces and territories, annual.


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Multi-family starts are expected todecline to 107,800 units in 2013, down

17.8 per cent from 131,170 in 2012,based on rising inventories earlier thisyear and increased competition froma well-supplied resale market for

condominium apartments5. Multi-familystarts have been moderating sinceNovember 2012. This also reflects the

softening in economic fundamentalslate in 2012 and in the first half of2013, as well as the expectation thatbuilders attempt to keep inventory

levels in check, despite the currentnumber of units under construction.The ratio of newly completed andunabsorbed multi-family housing

units per 10,000 population stood at

3.05 units in the second quarter of2013, which was above the historical

average of 2.43 units but down fromthe ratio of 3.16 units for the firstquarter of 2013.

Multi-family starts are forecast toremain relatively stable at 105,700 unitsin 2014, as demand strengthens along

with improving economic conditionsand inventories of completed andunabsorbed units are drawn lower.

Multi-family starts are expected torange between 104,500 and 111,100units in 2013 and between 93,900 and

117,500 units in 2014.

MLSsales are expected toremain stable in 2013 andincrease in 2014

Existing home sales are expected tostay relatively unchanged in 2013 andthen rise along with improving

economic conditions in the first half of2014, before moderating in the secondhalf of the year with the anticipated

rise in mortgage rates. Moreover, therise in mortgage rates that occurred inMay, June and August, 2013, motivatedhome buyers to advance their pur-chases and lock in pre-qualified mort-gage rates. This forward buying willcontinue into 2014. Following a level of454,005 sales in 2012, CMHCs pointforecasts are 456,700 MLSsales for2013 and 468,200 for 2014. MLSsalesare expected to be between 439,400and 474,000 units in 2013 and between438,300 and 498,100 unitsin 2014.

Balanced market conditionsexpected to prevail overforecast horizon

In September, sales grew at0.8 per cent, while new listingsdecreased by 1.4 per cent on amonth-to-month basis. Sales growthoutpaced new listings for a sixthconsecutive month in September.As a result, the sales-to-new listingsratio trended higher over the sameperiod. In September, the ratio stoodat 56.1 per cent, up from 54.8 percent in August, thus moving slightlyabove the 55.0-per-cent threshold6between a balanced and a sellersmarket. Canadas existing homemarket had been balanced since2010 and is expected to remainso over the forecast horizon.

Although the average MLShouseprice will grow slightly above the rateof inflation in 2013, this growth ratewill still be half of the 10-year average,reflecting upward pressure on house

prices in the Prairies. Meanwhile, thebiggest regional housing market inthe country, Ontario, will experiencehouse price growth slightly lowerthan the national average, but not

low enough to be a drag and offsetupward pressure in the westernmarkets. In 2014, house prices areexpected to grow in line with inflationCMHCs point forecasts for theaverage MLSprice are $378,000in 2013 and $385,200 in 2014,representing increases of 4.0 per centand 1.9 per cent, respectively.

The average MLSprice is forecast tobe between $372,300 and $383,700in 2013 and between $374,100 and$396,300 in 2014.

Provincial summary

All provinces will see lower housingstarts in 2013, except for Alberta.

The lower housing starts reflectexpectations that employment growthin the first half of 2013 will not likelysustain the same level of housingstarts as in 2012.

With the exception of Saskatchewan,housing starts are moderating less inthe Western provinces than in CentraCanada. In 2014, housing starts arealso expected to grow stronger inthe Western provinces than thenational average.

Stronger economic and demographicfundamentals in 2014 will helpsupport a modest rebound in housingstarts in British Columbia, Alberta,Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, andNewfoundland and Labrador, withOntario and Quebec showing littlechange. However, New Brunswick,Prince Edward Island and Manitobawill again see lower housing starts

in 2014.

Most provinces are also expectedto see lower MLSsales in 2013,although Alberta and British Columbiaare forecast to experience gains.

5 Multi-family starts consist of semi-detached, row and apartment units.

6 Taking the Canadian MLSmarket as a whole, a sales-to-new-listings ratio below 40 per cent has historically accompanied prices that are rising at a rate that is lessthan inflation, a situation known as a buyers market. A sales-to-new-listings ratio above 55 per cent is associated with a sellers market. In a sellers market, homeprices generally rise more rapidly than overall inflation. When the sales-to-new-listings ratio is between these thresholds, the market is said to be balanced.


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British Columbia is recovering froma decline in sales activity in 2012,while Alberta will see sales activitygrow moderately after posting strongsales growth in 2012. In 2014, MLSsales are expected to increase in mostregions, except Prince Edward Islandand New Brunswick.

In 2013, it is expected that growthin average MLShome prices will beslightly above the rate of inflation inall provinces except for Nova Scotiaand New Brunswick, which willexperience average price declinesdue to large inventories of availablehomes for sale. Average MLShomeprices are expected to be generally inline with the outlook for inflation in

2014, except in the Prairies, which willsee price growth above the nationalaverage as a result of strong economicfundamentals and high net migration(see pages 7 to 16 for the detailedprovincial outlooks).

Trends ImpactingHousing7

Gross Domestic Product

growth will remain supportive

In accordance with the consensusamong prominent Canadianeconomic forecasters, growth ingross domestic product (GDP) isforecast at 1.7 per cent in 2013,before strengthening to 2.3 per centin 2014. This compares to a GDPgrowth estimate of 1.7 per centin 2012.

The forecast for Canadian GDPgrowth in 2013 has been reviseddownward slightly from CMHCs

third quarter Housing MarketOutlook. Canadas economy isexpected to be supported by ashift in demand toward exportsand business investment. Morespecifically, business fixed investmentis expected to strengthen as therecovery in Canadian exportsbecomes more firmly entrenched,providing greater confidence aboutprospects for global demand. TheCanadian economy is expected tocontinue to grow in 2013 at the samepace as in 2012 and will, therefore,remain supportive of the housingmarket. In 2014, GDP growth willfurther lend support to housingmarket activity, offsetting the impact

of expected mortgage rate increasesin the second half of 2014.

Employment to staysupportive

Employment increased by1.2 per cent in 2012. Based onthe consensus among prominentCanadian forecasters, CMHCexpects that employment willgrow by 1.4 per cent in 2013 andin 2014. Year-to-date, the averagemonthly employment gain wasroughly 12,700 jobs, markedlylower than the monthly averagegain of 24,600 jobs registeredover the first nine months of2012. Despite having been slowto date this year, employmentgrowth is anticipated to improvein the last quarter of the year and,therefore, to sustain moderateincreases in household income

and household formation over theforecast horizon. This will, in turn,support the housing market.

Net migration willremain strong

Canadas strong economicperformance, relative to its peers, isexpected to continue to attract a highlevel of immigrants (net international

migration). Total net migration isforecast to reach 269,500 people in2013, up from an estimated 265,599in 2012, the highest level in recenthistory and well above the 10-yearaverage of about 238,500 people.Net migration is expected to declineto 260,650 in 2014.

High levels of net migration,by historical standards, will helpsupport Canadas housing sector.New migrants typically enter therental market before moving tohomeownership. Migration is expectedto be supportive of demand formulti-family housing, more specifically,purpose-built rental apartments andrental condominium units, over theprojection horizon. The high levelsof net migration in the last few yearswill continue to support multi-familyhousing over the forecast horizon,particularly from the relatively highernumbers of migrants to Canadasince 2008.

Mortgage rates to potentiallysee modest and gradualincreases but will remainlow by historical standards

Following the June meeting of theFederal Open Market Committee(FOMC) of the U.S. Federal ReserveBoard, interest rates rose modestlyand then remained steady in both the

U.S. and Canada. According to theFederal Reserve Bank of New York,this reflected a change in the riskassessment of investors and nota change in the expected future pathof interest rates.8

7 CMHC uses publicly available information and the consensus among major Canadian forecasters regarding economic assumptions.

8 Preparing for Takeoff? Professional Forecasters and the June 2013 FOMC Meeting. Federal Reserve Bank of New York (2013). Richard Crump, Stefano Eusepi, andEmanuel Moench (http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/09/preparing-for-takeoff-professional-forecasters-and-the-june-2013-fomc-meeting.html)


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Trends at a Glance

Key factors and their effects on housing starts

Mortgage rates Mortgage rates will remain low by historical standards and supportive of housing demand.

Employment The labour market has gotten off to a slower-than-expected start in 2013, with employmentgrowing in the first six months at a little over half the rate in 2011 and 2012. Nevertheless,employment is expected to improve during the course of the year and is forecast to grow1.4 per cent in both 2013 and 2014, which will support Canadas housing sector.

Income Growth in incomes is expected to continue, albeit at a moderate pace, on account of modesteconomic growth in Canada and global markets. As a result, income growth will remainsupportive of housing demand over the forecast horizon.

Net migration Canadas economy is expected to continue to perform well, relative to its peer countries.Canada should, therefore, continue to attract a high level of immigrants (net internationalmigration) over the forecast horizon, which will support housing demand over the forecast

horizon.

Population10 By the end of the forecast horizon and into 2015, all regions but Quebec will see the growthrate of their population aged 25-34 decline according to Statistics Canadas projections. By theend of the current decade, the growth rate of population aged 25-34 will be negative or veryclose to zero in most regions and will bring downward pressure on demand for multi-familyhousing. Furthermore, a steady decline in Canadas natural birth rate should lessen the demandfor additional housing stock beyond the forecast horizon. Population aging is also likely to impactthe type and tenure of housing in demand.

Resale market Resale market conditions for 2013 and 2014 are expected to be near balanced marketconditions in most local markets. Nevertheless, some price momentum will see the average

MLS

price grow above inflation in 2013 and in line with inflation in 2014.Vacancy rates11 The average vacancy rate of purpose-built rental apartments across Canadas metropolitan

centres is expected to decline slightly, to 2.5 per cent, in 2013 and remain at that level in 2014.Lower vacancy rates for purpose-built rental apartments over the forecast horizon are expectedto help support multiple-unit housing construction, particularly in 2014, through the expansionof the rental condominium market.

Stock ofnew andunabsorbedunits

The stock of unabsorbed new housing units has been stable in the second quarter of 2013,indicating continued strength in demand for newly completed homes. In addition, the ratio of thestock of unabsorbed new units to population, a simple gauge to assess potential overbuilding, isclose to the historical average. Nevertheless, should the inventory increase inordinately, buildersmay delay or reduce the size of some housing projects. This could lead to a sharper-than-

expected moderation in housing starts.

10 Demographic forecasts are based on Statistics Canadas medium-growth population projection.

11 Rental vacancy rates are for purpose-built rental apartments, and do not cover condominium units that are offered up for rent by owners on the secondaryrental market.


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British Columbia

Overview

British Columbias economy isforecast to expand 2.5 per cent in2014, slightly ahead of the nationalaverage, and an increase compared

to 2013. Modest growth in consumerspending and business investmentare expected to contribute to

economic growth.

British Columbias labour marketconditions are forecast to improve

in 2014. Employment is expectedto increase 1.0 per cent next year,following almost no growth in 2013.

This years shift to higher levels offull-time employment will also carryover into 2014. An increase in full-timeemployment will support wage growth

and homeownership demand.

Household formation from a growingpopulation as well as a forecast

increase in the first-time homebuyer population is expected toadd to housing demand. Population

projections by age group point to

an expanding number of people inthe 25 to 44 year age range, whichhas traditionally contributed to

first-time home buyer demand.12Migration from other countries,partly offset by people moving to

other provinces, is expected to add41,300 people in 2014, up from apredicted 33,000-person gain in2013. Migration-fuelled population

growth, combined with the residentpopulation, could add 31,000

households in 2014.13

In Detail

Single Starts: Single-detached startsare projected to rise to 9,200 units

in 2014 from a projected 8,400 unitsin 2013. Improving employment andeconomic growth will support anincrease in single-detached home

construction next year. Single-detached starts, which accountedfor 40 per cent of starts during the

last ten years, will make up just overone-third of housing starts in BritishColumbia next year, as the focus ofnew home construction has shifted

to more dense housing types.

Multiple Starts: Multi-family startsare forecast to remain relatively

stable at 18,700 units in 2014, asdemand strengthens along withimproving economic conditions and

inventories of new completed and

unabsorbed units are drawn lower.Rising inventories earlier this yearand increased competition from

a well-supplied resale market forcondominium apartments are

expected to hold multiple-family starts

to 18,400 units in 2013, compared to19,132 units in 2012.

Resales: MLSsales are forecast toincrease to 76,800 in 2014, up from

an expected 71,600 sales in 2013.Demand will be broad-based, fuelledby rising employment, ample supplyand stable prices.

Prices: Expect rising new listings inline with stronger existing home

sales to keep price growth in checkin 2014, as resale market conditionsremain balanced. The average MLSprice is forecast at $531,300 in 2013,

compared to a projected $535,000in 2014.

British Columbia Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*

Singles MultiplesSource: CMHC (F): Forecast

*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 26,800 for 2013 and 27,900 for 2014. Economicuncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 26,100-27,500 units for 2013

and24,900-30,900 for 2014.

Figure 1

12 B.C. Stats population projections show annual growth of the 25 to 44 year age category adding on average 17,100 persons, in 2013 and 2014. Source: P.E.O.P.L.E2013, CMHC calculations.

13 Source: BC Stats household projections, CMHC calculation.


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Alberta

Overview

Alberta is expected to be amongCanadas economic growth leaders.

Real GDP is projected to increaseby 2.1 per cent in 2013 and 3.1 per

cent in 2014. Higher oil prices and anarrowing differential between theprice of West Texas Intermediateand Western Canadian Select are

supportive of the energy industry.Exports are projected to rise, as isinvestment, driven primarily by energy.

At the same time, expendituresrelated to flood remediation inSouthern Alberta will continue to

provide a boost to the economy.Consumer spending will continueto increase as well, supported bypopulation growth and a labour

market generating rising wages.

Albertas growing economy isexpected to generate employment

growth of 2.8 per cent in 2013 and2.3 per cent in 2014. This will keepthe unemployment rate relatively lowin Alberta at 4.6 per cent in 2013

and 4.5 per cent in 2014. Albertasexpanding economy and labourmarket opportunities will continue

to be attractive to migrants.

Net migration to Alberta will remainat an elevated level. While economic

growth outside of Alberta is expectedto improve, it is not expected toslow the annual flow of migrants to

Alberta until 2014, as this provinceis still expected to lead the country

in terms of economic growth. Netmigration reached 86,939 in 2012 and

is projected at 95,600 in 2013 and68,100 in 2014.

In Detail

Single Starts: Single-detached starts

are projected to reach 18,300 units in2013 and rise to 19,100 units in 2014.In markets such as Calgary, which areexperiencing tighter resale market

conditions, expect more buyers tolook to the new home market tosatisfy their housing needs. In both2013 and 2014, single-detached

starts are expected to rise in most ofAlbertas seven largest urban centres.

Multiple Starts: Multi-family startsare projected to reach 15,900 unitsin 2013 and remain relatively stableat 15,800 units in 2014. In 2014,

Edmontons multi-family productionwill pull back after several yearsof elevated production due toheightened supply levels. Meanwhile,

after declining in 2013, Calgarys

multi-family starts will risesubstantially in 2014. The shift in

multi-family production betweenEdmonton and Calgary will helpkeep the provincial total relativelyunchanged in 2014.

Resales: In the resale market, MLSsales are projected to reach 65,000in 2013 and then rise to 66,800 in

2014. Albertas elevated level of netmigration will help support housingdemand through 2014. In addition

to new household formation,employment and wage growthwill also support a higher levelof resale transactions.

Prices: The average MLS

pricein Alberta is projected to reach$379,200 in 2013 and rise to

$387,400 in 2014. The sales-to-newlistings ratio for Alberta has beentrending higher in 2013, indicative

of stronger demand relative to supply.As a result, some locations areexhibiting sellers market conditions.New listings are expected to increase

in 2014 and will moderate the paceof price growth next year.

Alberta Starts (000s)

0

5

10

15

2025

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*


Figure 2


and31,200-38,600 for 2014.


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Saskatchewan

Overview

Saskatchewans economy will continueto grow at a faster pace than the

national average, as real GDP isprojected to increase by 2.1 per cent

in 2013, and by 2.8 per cent in 2014.Saskatchewans commodity-basedeconomy is expected to experiencestronger growth in 2014, as exports

increase with an improving globaleconomic outlook. On the other hand,an emerging risk is the dissolution

of a European potash marketingpartnership, which has put downwardpressure on international potash

prices, an important commodity forSaskatchewan. Domestically, consumerspending will continue to supporteconomic growth.

Saskatchewans economy isprojected to generate employmentgrowth of 3.3 per cent in 2013 and

1.7 per cent in 2014. Labour marketconditions in Saskatchewan areexpected to remain tight, holdingback employment growth and keeping

the unemployment rate averaging4.1 per cent in 2013, and 4.3 percent in 2014, representing the lowest

provincial unemployment rates acrossCanada. Some parts of Saskatchewanare experiencing unemploymentrates of below 3 per cent and will

need migrants to address locallabour needs.

The record level of net migrationof 15,974 in 2012 will be difficult to

sustain. Nonetheless, net migration toSaskatchewan is expected to remain

elevated at 14,500 people in 2013, and12,500 in 2014. The primary inflowof migrants to Saskatchewan willcome from outside of Canada, though

additions from other provinces arealso expected. While Saskatchewan

is expected to experience someinterprovincial losses to Alberta, it willmake up for these losses with gainsfrom other provinces.

In Detail

Single Starts: After peaking at over

5,000 units last year, single-detachedstarts are forecast to moderate to4,200 units in 2013 as elevated supply

levels prevent a rise in constructionthis year. Despite the moderation,single-detached starts will remainabove the 10-year average of

approximately 3,400 units, supportedby strong employment growth andrising wages. In 2014, 4,200 units areexpected to be started.

Multiple Starts: After a strong gain in2012, multi-family starts are forecast

to decline to 4,400 units in 2013,

due to elevated supply levels. Withabsorptions lagging completions thisyear, the inventory of complete and

unabsorbed units is rising and willfurther slow the initiation of newmulti-family projects to 3,800 units

in 2014.

Resales: MLSsales in Saskatchewanare expected to moderate to 13,400units in 2013, due to moderating netmigration, competition from the new

home market, and higher monthlycarrying costs. In 2014, MLSsalesare forecast to increase modestly to

13,600 units, buoyed by job growthand rising wages.

Prices: Aided by price composition, the

average MLS

price in Saskatchewan isforecast to rise to $286,500 in 2013,from $275,490 in 2012. Balanced

market conditions over the forecastperiod will ensure positive pricegrowth. However, higher active listingsrelative to sales will move the average

price to $293,000 in 2014.

Saskatchewan Starts (000s)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*



and 7,100-8,900 for 2014.

Figure 3


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Manitoba

Overview

Economic growth in Manitoba willcontinue, with real GDP projected

to increase by 1.9 per cent in 2013,and 2.0 per cent in 2014. An increase

in consumer spending, supportedby an expanding population, higheremployment, and wage growth,will help Manitobas economy to

expand through 2014. An increasein Manitobas exports will result in astronger economic expansion next

year, thanks to higher demand from afaster growing U.S. economy.

Labour market conditions inManitoba are expected to generateemployment growth of 0.9 per centin 2013 and 1.0 per cent in 2014.

The unemployment rate in Manitobahas ranged from 4.9 per cent to5.8 so far this year and will average5.4 per cent in 2013. In 2014,

employment growth will almostkeep pace with labour force gains,moving the annual unemploymentrate to 5.6 per cent.

Net migration to Manitoba isprojected at 8,600 people in 2013,

before moderating slightly to 8,500in 2014. Manitobas population, newhousehold formation, and housingdemand will continue to be supported

by the net inflow of migrants.International migration will continueto be a key driver of population

growth, thanks, in part, to theProvincial Nominee Program. On the

other hand, interprovincial outflowswill continue to temper Manitobas

population growth.

In Detail

Single Starts: Manitobas single-detached housing starts are projected

to moderate to 3,900 units in 2013,before increasing slightly to 4,000units in 2014. Modest employmentgains this year, combined with

easing market conditions in thecompeting resale market, will resultin starts below the peak set in 2012.Nevertheless, starts this year and

next will remain elevated by historicalstandards, supported by populationgrowth and move-up buyers taking

advantage of continued price gains inthe resale market.

Multiple Starts: By the end of 2013,

multi-family starts are projected tosurpass the level set in 2012 and reach3,500 units. Multi-family constructionis being buoyed by demand for new

condominium units. Low vacancyrates across the province are alsoencouraging builders to respond with

new construction in the rental sector.With increasing inventories expectednext year, however, builders will easeproduction in 2014 to 3,100 units.

Resales: Following the recordperformance of 2012, MLSsales areforecast to moderate to 13,700 unitsin 2013. A rebound in sales in the

latter part of this year will continueinto 2014, bringing sales to 13,800next year. Demand will be bolstered

by population growth and an increasein selection for buyers, as the numberof active listings continues to rise.However, modest employment and

income gains will temper the increasein sales.

Prices: The average residential MLSprice in Manitoba is forecast to riseto $256,500 in 2013, followed by amore moderate increase to $264,600

in 2014. Softer sales growth, combinedwith a higher inventory of activelistings, particularly in Winnipeg, willhelp reduce upward pressure on

prices over the forecast period.

Manitoba Starts (000s)

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*

Singles Multiples (F): ForecastSource: CMHC


and 6,400-7,800 for 2014.

Figure 4


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Ontario

Overview

Ontario economic growth willgradually improve over the forecasthorizon, rising from 1.5 per centthis year, to 2.4 per cent by 2014.This represents the first time in overa decade that Ontario will matchgrowth in all of Canada. While thehousing sector may be dampeningoverall provincial economic growththis year, the sector will have a moreneutral impact next year. Whilethe consumer and public sectorscontribute less to overall economicgrowth, the business and export

sectors will increasingly supportOntarios economy. The consensusamong Canadian private-sectorforecasters suggests that the U.S.economy will gain traction over theforecast horizon, which is expectedto contribute to Ontarios exportgrowth and the overall economicactivity in the province.

An improving economy will supportjob growth of 1.6 per cent in 2014.

So far, part-time employment hasshown stronger growth across theprovince. As concerns about the globaleconomy subside, businesses will gainconfidence and hire workers on amore permanent basis, particularlythrough the second half of 2014.Ontarios jobless rate should trendlower next year to reach its lowestlevel since 2008.

As Ontario narrows the growth

gap with the rest of Canada andas its population continues to age,migratory outflows to other provinceswill gradually lessen. Also, Ontariosshare of international migration willgradually normalize and trend closerto historic norms. Net migration toOntario will rise from 77,800 in 2013,to 86,300 net migrants in 2014.

Ontario home starts will slow thisyear before stabilizing in 2014. Startswill decline to 60,800 and 60,300units this year and next, respectively.Modest job growth, more choice inthe less expensive resale market andhigh levels of apartment units underconstruction will limit starts of newunits.

In Detail

Single Starts: Single-detached startswill reach 23,500 and 23,700 units in2013 and 2014, respectively. Improvingincome growth, low inventoriesof unsold homes and tighterresale market conditions for low-density housing will allow detachedconstruction to post some modestgrowth over the forecast horizon,relative to higher-density housingconstruction.

Multiple Starts: Multi-family homeconstruction will slow to 37,300 unitsthis year, and to 36,600 units in 2014.The apartment sector has captured agrowing share of new home activityin recent years, but has begun tonormalize. As a result, a rebalancingaway from apartments towardsemi-detached and row construction

will occur, given more modestinventories for these dwelling types.Nevertheless, historical propensitiessuggest that condo demand willcontinue to be supported by price-sensitive first-time buyers and agrowing pool of empty nesters aged55 to 64.

Resales: Existing home sales will reach198,700 units this year, in line with

2012 levels. After trending lowersince spring of 2012, existing homesales have re-gained momentum andare expected to gradually improve,reaching 201,300 units in 2014.More condominium completions,coupled with the resale markets priceadvantage, will provide more choice topotential home buyers.

Prices: A balanced Ontario resalemarket suggests that prices will

grow in line with the general rate ofinflation over the forecast horizon.In addition, shifting demand to lessexpensive housing resulting fromhigher home prices will also exertdownward pressure on average pricesover the next few years. Ontariohome prices will reach $398,000and $404,200 in 2013 and 2014,respectively.

Ontario Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*


*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 60,800 for 2013 and 60,300 for 2014. Economic

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 59,200-62,400 units for 2013

and 54,000-66,600 for 2014.

Figure 5


12/33



Quebec

Overview

In Quebec, relatively slow economicand employment growth will reducedemand of existing and new homesthis year. As well, easing resale marketsand relatively high inventories ofnew dwellings will significantly lowerhousing starts in 2013. Nonetheless,demographic trends will supporthousing demand into 2014, at whichtime a strengthening economy andtightening resale markets will energizeboth the resale and new housingmarkets.

On the economic front, Quebecs

labour markets still feel the impacts ofa slow recovery south of the borderand of more favourable employmentprospects in Western Canada.Economic accounts for the first half ofthe year show slower rate of privateinvestment in machinery and labour.For this reason, employment willprogress at a relatively slow pacein 2013 and 2014 (approximately1 per cent each year). Meanwhile,

public and consumer spending haveincreased moderately, as have exports.GDP growth of between 1.3 and2.0 per cent is expected during theforecast horizon.

Demographic trends will continueto support the provinces housingmarkets in the next two years.Sustained immigration to the provincewill continue to have a positive impacton demand in the rental market, asflows are expected to remain stableduring the next two years. Totalnet migration is expected to reach,respectively, 44,300 and 45,300 peoplein 2013 and 2014. While moderatingdemand from younger householdscools first-time buying, populationaging will prompt some older

households to re-enter the marketin response to their evolving housingneeds.

In Detail

Single Starts: In 2013, moderate jobgrowth, the continued easing of theresale market, which is expectedto attract a greater part of housingdemand, and the trend toward multi-family dwelling will contribute to

reduced single starts and translateinto a total of 13,300 single-detachedhomes started. In 2014, a tighterresale market will bring some supportto the new housing market segment,which is expected to result in a similarnumber of starts as in 2013.

Multiple Starts: The trend toward themulti-family market segment is stillexplained by its relative affordability,the changing needs of an aging

population and by densificationtrends. Fuelled by the popularity ofcondominium apartments, supply inthis market segment has increasedsignificantly. As a result of three yearsof sustained construction from 2010to 2012, market conditions in thismarket have eased notably. Starts

of multi-family dwellings will, thus,decrease by nearly 25 per cent thisyear. Multiple starts will decreasebelow the 24,000 level in 2013 andstabilize in 2014 (23,500).

Resales: While remaining stable in2012, sales recorded by Centris14have been recently declining as aresult of the overall economic contextdiscussed previously. Despite a certainrebound in the second half of this

year, resales will come in at a lowerlevel. For 2013, just over 73,000 suchtransactions are forecast. As buyingconditions improve, total resales willbe back in growth mode next year.In total, 75,000 Centrissales areforecast for 2014.

Prices: Relatively lower demand forresale homes, combined with risingsupply, has taken pressure off pricegrowth in recent quarters and should

continue to do so throughout theforecast horizon. In this context,price growth in the resale market willcontinue to moderate in 2013. Theaverage price recorded by Centriswill reach $268,000 this year andapproach the $270,000 mark in 2014.

Quebec Starts (000s)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*



and32,800-40,600 for 2014.

Figure 6

14The Centrissystem contains all the listings of Quebec real estate brokers.


13/33



New Brunswick

Overview

GDP growth is expected to remainweak over the forecast period,

with 0.2 per cent growth forecastfor the province in 2013 and just

under 1 per cent in 2014. The currenteconomic weakness stems mainlyfrom a reduction in capital investment.The natural resources sector, a key

driver of economic growth for theprovince, is expected to post mixedresults in both 2013 and 2014, as

improvement in the forestry sector isexpected to be offset by weakness inthe mining sector.

New Brunswick labour marketconditions will remain weak for thefourth year in a row. Employment

growth is projected to remainnegative, with a 0.6 per cent declinein 2013, before finally seeing somegrowth in 2014 with a small 0.7 per

cent increase. A higher pace of growthin the labour force in 2013 will resultin the unemployment rate rising to10.8 per cent, with the rate remaining

the same in 2014.

The economic prospects for the

province continue to be held downby a lack of population growth and acontinuation in the negative outlookfor net migration. International

migration will be less than 1,000people per year in both 2013 and2014. Despite the positive totals

for international migration in both2013 and 2014, a reduction in

interprovincial migration will resultin negative net migration during

this period.

In Detail

Single Starts: Rising out-migrationfrom the provinces major centres toother parts of Canada, as a result of

increasingly challenging employmentconditions, will continue to have adampening effect on demand for

new homes and overall residentialconstruction activity in 2013 and 2014.As a result, single starts are forecast

to decline to 1,230 units in 2013 andto 1,170 units in 2014.

Multiple Starts: Stronger buildingactivity in the rental market since

2010, particularly in Moncton andFredericton, will maintain the trend ofrising vacancy rates over the forecast

period. Developers are expectedto begin pulling back in new rentalprojects, reducing apartment starts tolevels not seen since 2009. As a result,

multiple starts are expected to declineto 1,300 units in 2013, with a furtherdecline to 1,010 units in 2014.

Resales: Overall, the market willincreasingly benefit home buyers forthe provinces three largest centers,as price growth is slowing and listings

have been on the rise, resulting inbuyers market conditions. Withexpected declines in employmentin 2013 and negative net migration

to the province, demand for existinghomes is forecast to slow. MLSsales should decline to 6,200 units

in 2013, with a further decline to6,000 in 2014.

Prices: The inventory of available

homes is expected to remain athistorically high levels in NewBrunswicks large urban centres in2013 and 2014. This will continue

to impact the level of price growth.The MLSaverage price is expectedto remain relatively stable at $161,000

in 2013, followed by a moderate

decline to $160,500 in 2014.

New Brunswick Starts (000s)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*



and1,530-2,830 for 2014.

Figure 7


14/33



Nova Scotia

Overview

The province of Nova Scotia isexpected to record economic growth

of close to 1.0 per cent in 2013 and1.2 per cent in 2014. Economicconditions are expected to improvein 2014, as the manufacturing sectorsees a return to positive growth and

site development and pre-engineeringwork at the Halifax Shipyard continues.Furthermore, provincial productionof natural gas should increase in the

second half of 2013.

Nova Scotia labour market conditions

remained weak in 2013. As a result,employment growth is projected to beclose to zero in 2013, compared to arate of growth of 0.6 per cent in 2012.

In 2014, total employment will growby 0.4 per cent as a result of anexpected moderate rise in privatesector investment activity. A lower

level of growth in employment in2014 compared to labour force growthwill result in the unemployment rate

rising to 9.1 per cent, which will be thehighest level reported since 2010.

In 2013, interprovincial migration

will record a decline of nearly 4,000people. In 2014, expect interprovincialmigration to remain negative, as 2,100more migrants leave than come to the

province. International migration willdrop significantly in 2013 to under1,000 people before rebounding to

1,350 in 2014. As a result, net migration

will remain negative in 2013 and 2014.

In Detail

Single Starts: In 2013, as a result ofno employment growth and slowing

consumer demand, single-detachedstarts will drop to 1,725 units. For2014, expect the improvement inemployment growth and private

sector investment to stimulatedemand in the new homes market,resulting in a rise to 1,775 single-detached starts in the province.

Multiple Starts: The provincialmulti-family segment of the

market will continue to be drivenby apartment-style rental unitconstruction, most of which willcontinue to take place in Halifax. The

supply and demand conditions forrental housing continue to be drivenprimarily by an aging population basethat is looking to downsize or move

to one-floor living accommodations.Expect row units to see a pick-up inactivity over the forecast period in

order to answer demand from moreprice-sensitive home buyers. As aresult multiple starts will total 2,240units in 2013 and 2,250 units in 2014.

Resales: Following a slight increasein 2012, MLSsales will decline in2013 to 9,225 units. In 2014, expecta smaller decline in provincial

net migration and an improvingemployment outlook to result ina small reversal in MLSsales to

9,500 units.

Prices: The average sale price of anexisting home in Nova Scotia climbed

3.7 per cent in 2012 to $220,413. In2013, a rise in listings continues tokeep market conditions close to abuyers market, resulting in a decline

in prices to $218,000. In 2014, priceswill return to $220,000, as improvingeconomic factors will result in an

improvement of price performance.

Nova Scotia Starts (000s)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.53.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*



and3,025-5,025 for 2014.

Figure 8


15/33



Prince Edward

Island

Overview

Prince Edward Islands economy

is forecast to grow by 1.5 and1.3 per cent in 2013 and 2014,

respectively. The decline in theCanadian dollar has favoured tourismand the manufacturing sector, includingaerospace, agriculture and seafood

processing. During the first sevenmonths of 2013, manufacturing is upclose to 4 per cent and tourism isshowing a turnaround in traffic after

a slowdown earlier in the year.

Improving provincial labour marketconditions continue to support thestronger outlook for employment.Employment is forecast to growby 1.8 per cent in 2013, before

slowing to 1.1 per in 2014, aseconomic activity softens. Labourforce growth is expected to outpace

employment growth in 2014, resultingin the unemployment rate risingfrom 11.2 per cent in 2013, to

11.4 per cent in 2014.

The economic prospects forthe province will be held back

by slower population growth andrising out-migration. Net migrationis expected to remain moderatelynegative, in the range of 300 people

per year in 2013 and 2014 asinternational migration of about500 people per year is offset by arise in interprovincial migration

outflows of approximately 800 peopleper year over the forecast period.

In DetailSingle Starts: A slowdown inpopulation growth and employmentwill result in single starts movinglower in 2013, to 310 units with a

further decline to 300 units in 2014.

Multiple Starts: The increase in the

number of new multiple units since2009 has resulted in a continuing risein the rental vacancy rate beginning in2010. It is expected that the vacancy

rate will continue to increase in both2013 and 2014. As a result, multiplestarts are beginning to slow, which will

allow the market more time to absorbthe rising supply of new units over theforecast period. Multiple starts willmoderate to 425 units in 2013, before

declining further to 350 units in 2014.

Resales: The pullback in migrationand resulting slowdown in population

growth will impact housing salesin 2013 and 2014. MLSsales areforecast to reach 1,425 units in

2013, before declining to 1,350 unitsin 2014.

Prices: The resulting weakness in salesactivity and increase in listings overthe forecast period will impact thelevel of price growth. The averageMLSSales price is expected to

reach $155,000 in 2013, and $156,500in 2014.

Prince Edward Island Starts (000s)

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.50.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*


*The point estimate for provincial total housing star ts is 735 for 2013 and 650 for 2014. Economic uncertainty

is reflected by the current range of forecasts which varies from 650-820 units for 2013 and 480-820 for 2014.

Figure 9


16/33



Newfoundland and

Labrador

Overview

Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) will

lead economic growth in the countryin 2013, as GDP is expected to rise

to 4.0 per cent. Growth is expectedto moderate to 1.8 per cent in 2014.The rise in growth in 2013 is due to arebound in oil production and higher

oil prices. The recovery in economicgrowth in 2013 is also supported byconsumer spending and additionalprivate sector energy investment

activity. Recent news concerning new

potential oil fields outside of thecurrent production areas that are

being developed is also consideredpositive for the provinces futureeconomic growth.

NL labour market conditions willsoften moderately in 2013, asemployment growth is projected

to rise 1.6 per cent, comparedto 2.3 per cent in 2012. In 2014,employment growth will be reduced

to less than 1 per cent as privatesector investment activity slows fromlevels experienced over the last threeyears and projects currently underconstruction reach the completion

stage. A more moderate rise inthe labour force will result in theunemployment rate inching down

slightly, from 11.4 per cent in 2013to 11.3 per cent in 2014.

Net migration will remain weak over

the forecast period as interprovincialmigration, which turned negative in2012, is not expected to turn positive

until 2014. International migration willcontinue to contribute to population

growth in both 2013 and 2014.

In Detail

Single Starts: Steady, but slowerpopulation growth in 2013 and 2014,

coupled with a slowdown in theoutlook for employment in 2013and 2014, will reduce the demandfor housing. As a result, the level of

single starts will moderate. Recently,income growth has not been able tofully offset the effect of higher prices,so first-time home buyer activity is

also expected to weaken, resulting inthe provincial single-detached housingmarket declining to 2,350 starts in

2013 and 2,325 starts in 2014.

Multiple Starts: Multiple-unitconstruction is expected to decline

to 575 units in 201315, before risingto 675 units in 2014, as several newrental projects begin construction.Semi-detached and row starts activity

will hold steady over the forecast

period after the recent surge in bothactivity and prices from 2010-2012.

Resales: Although wage growth ispositive in NL, there are expectationsfor a decline in sales in 2013, as aresult of the softening outlook for

employment. MLSsales in 2013 areexpected to reach 4,000 sales, from4,650 in 2012, before beginning to

improve to 4,100 sales in 2014, as netmigration improves.

Prices: After several years of sustained

price growth, average MLShouse

price growth began to moderate tosingle-digit growth in 2011 and 2012.With inventory levels remaining

elevated and housing demand notexpected to grow substantially untilafter 2014, price growth is expected

to be lower in 2014, following threeyears of growth near 7 per cent peryear. Average MLShouse prices areexpected to be $287,000 in 2013, and

$292,000 in 2014.

Newfoundland & Labrador Starts (000s)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*



and 2,300-3,700 for 2014.

Figure 10

15The current declines are also partially due to a shift in the measurement of how basement apartments are being recorded in the monthly housing survey beginningin 2013.


17/33



Canada Starts (000s)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2010 2011 2012 2013(F)* 2014(F)*


Figure 11

*The point estimate for total housing starts is 185,000 for 2013 and 184,700 for 2014. Economic uncertainty is reflectedby the current range of forecasts, which varies from 179,300-190,600 units for 2013 and 163,700-205,700 for 2014.


18/33



2010

2011

2012

2013(F)

2014(F)

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4(F)

2014Q1(F)

2014Q2(F)

2014Q3(F)

2014Q4(F)

NFLD

3,606

3,488

3,885

2,925

3,000

2,726

3,062

2,538

3,375

2,800

3,175

3,125

2,900

%

18.0

-3.3

11.4

-24.7

2.6

-24.7

12.3

-17.1

33.0

-17.0

13.4

-1.6

-7.2

PEI

756

940

941

735

650

920

746

464

790

625

700

650

625

%

-13.8

24.3

0.1

-21.9

-11.6

-4.0

-18.9

-37.8

70.3

-20.9

12.0

-7.1

-3.8

NS

4,309

4,644

4,522

3,965

4,025

4,611

3,455

4,069

3,725

3,400

4,300

4,200

4,200

%

25.3

7.8

-2.6

-12.3

1.5

-11.0

-25.1

17.8

-8.5

-8.7

26.5

-2.3

0.0

NB

4,101

3,452

3,299

2,530

2,180

3,429

2,834

2,774

1,100

1,800

2,200

2,500

2,175

%

16.5

-

15.8

-4.4

-23.3

-13.9

16.3

-17.4

-2.1

-60.3

63.6

22.2

13.6

-13.0

QUE

51,363

48,387

47,367

37,000

36,700

35,926

38,397

36,695

37,100

36,700

36,700

36,700

36,700

%

18.3

-5.8

-2.1

-21.9

-0.8

-20.3

6.9

-4.4

1.1

-1.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

ONT

60,433

67,821

76,742

60,800

60,300

56,715

58,200

65,546

62,800

63,100

62,000

59,500

56,425

%

20.0

12.2

13.2

-20.8

-0.8

-18.2

2.6

12.6

-4.2

0.5

-1.7

-4.0

-5.2

MAN

5,888

6,083

7,242

7,400

7,100

6,810

7,380

8,384

7,100

7,300

7,000

7,100

7,100

%

41.1

3.3

19.1

2.2

-4.1

6.1

8.4

13.6

-15.3

2.8

-4.1

1.4

0.0

SASK

5,907

7,031

9,968

8,600

8,000

6,558

7,529

11,045

9,200

7,900

8,200

8,000

7,900

%

52.8

19.0

41.8

-13.7

-7.0

-40.7

14.8

46.7

-16.7

-14.1

3.8

-2.4

-1.3

ALTA

27,088

25,704

33,396

34,200

34,900

33,725

39,193

32,131

31,700

34,500

34,900

34,700

35,500

%

33.5

-5.1

29.9

2.4

2.0

-2.2

16.2

-18.0

-1.3

8.8

1.2

-0.6

2.3

BC

26,479

26,400

27,465

26,800

27,900

24,036

25,393

29,997

27,800

28,100

27,800

28,000

27,600

%

64.7

-0.3

4.0

-2.4

4.1

-1.8

5.6

18.1

-7.3

1.1

-1.1

0.7

-1.4

CAN*

189,930

193,950

214,827

185,000

184,700

175,456

186,189

193,643

184,700

186,200

187,000

1

84,500

181,100

%

27.4

2.1

10.8

-13.9

-0.1

-13.8

6.1

4.0

-4.6

0.8

0.4

-1.3

-1.8

Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesum

oftheprovincesduetorounding.

(F)ForecastbyCMHC

*Canadiantotalexcludesterritories.Thepointestimatefortheforecastofnationaltotalhousingstartsis185,0

00un

itsfor2013and184,7

00unitsfor2014.

Economicuncertaintyisreflectedbythe

currentrangeofforecasts,whichvariesfrom

179,300-1

90,6

00unitsfor2013and163,7

00-2

05,7

00unitsfor2014.

**Quarterlylevelsareseasonallyadjustedatannu

alrates.

Ta

ble1:TotalHousingStarts

(units**

and

percentage

change)

SOURCE:CMHC


19/33



2010

2011

2012

2013(F)

2014(F)

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4(F)

2014Q1(F)

2014Q2(F)

2014Q3(F)

2014Q4(F)

NFLD

2,941

2,612

2,523

2,350

2,325

2,319

2,432

2,051

2,600

2,200

2,500

2,400

2,200

%

12.9

-1

1.2

-3.4

-6.9

-1.0

-5.9

4.9

-15.7

26.8

-15.4

13.6

-4.0

-8.3

PEI

396

431

387

310

300

323

345

281

290

275

325

300

300

%

-7.9

8.8

-10.2

-20.0

-3.1

-12.9

6.8

-18.6

3.2

-5.2

18.2

-7.7

0.0

NS

2,392

2,045

2,258

1,725

1,775

1,580

1,607

1,689

2,025

1,600

1,800

1,800

1,900

%

9.1

-1

4.5

10.4

-23.6

2.9

-30.6

1.7

5.1

19.9

-21.0

12.5

0.0

5.6

NB

2,068

1,823

1,697

1,230

1,170

1,286

1,195

1,426

1,000

1,000

1,200

1,300

1,175

%

-4.0

-1

1.8

-6.9

-27.5

-4.9

-8.5

-7.1

19.3

-29.9

0.0

20.0

8.3

-9.6

QUE

19,549

16,554

16,059

13,300

13,200

13,117

13,755

13,092

13,200

13,200

13,200

1

3,200

13,200

%

11.5

-1

5.3

-3.0

-17.2

-0.8

-13.8

4.9

-4.8

0.8

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

ONT

28,089

26,884

25,567

23,500

23,700

23,101

23,393

23,338

24,300

24,800

24,500

2

3,500

21,925

%

24.1

-

4.3

-4.9

-8.1

0.9

-6.8

1.3

-0.2

4.1

2.1

-1.2

-4.1

-6.7

MAN

3,976

3,831

4,169

3,900

4,000

3,842

3,916

3,644

4,100

4,100

3,900

4,000

4,000

%

30.7

-

3.6

8.8

-6.5

2.6

-7.3

1.9

-6.9

12.5

0.0

-4.9

2.6

0.0

SASK

3,830

4,152

5,171

4,200

4,200

3,922

3,777

4,509

4,400

4,100

4,400

4,100

4,200

%

35.4

8.4

24.5

-18.8

0.0

-19.5

-3.7

19.4

-2.4

-6.8

7.3

-6.8

2.4

ALTA

17,851

15,193

17,493

18,300

19,100

19,280

18,165

18,073

17,800

19,200

19,000

1

9,000

19,200

%

24.4

-1

4.9

15.1

4.6

4.4

9.1

-5.8

-0.5

-1.5

7.9

-1.0

0.0

1.1

BC

11,462

8,867

8,333

8,400

9,200

8,279

7,736

8,546

9,100

9,300

9,300

9,200

9,100

%

45.2

-2

2.6

-6.0

0.8

9.5

2.3

-6.6

10.5

6.5

2.2

0.0

-1.1

-1.1

CAN*

92,554

82,392

83,657

77,200

79,000

77,049

76,321

76,649

78,800

79,800

80,100

7

8,800

77,200

%

22.3

-1

1.0

1.5

-7.8

2.3

-5.2

-0.9

0.4

2.8

1.2

0.4

-1.7

-2.0

Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesum

ofthe

provincesduetorounding.

(F)ForecastbyCMHC.

*Canadiantotalexcludesterritories.Thepointestimatefortheforecastofnationalsingle-detachedhousingstartsis77

,200unitsfor2013and79,0

00unitsfor2014.

Economicuncertaint

yisreflected

bythecurrentrangeofforecasts,whichvariesfrom

74,8

00-7

9,6


00-8

8,2

00unitsfor2014.

**Quarterlylevelsareseasonallyadjustedatannual

rates.

SOURCE:CMHC

Table2:Single-DetachedHousingStarts

(u

nits**

and

percentage

change)


20/33

2Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation


2010

2011

2012

2013(F)

2014(F)

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4(F)

2014Q1(F)

2014Q2(F)

201

4Q3(F)

2014Q4(F)

NFLD

665

876

1,362

575

675

407

630

487

775

600

675

725

700

%

47.5

31.7

55.5

-57.8

17.4

-64.8

54.8

-22.7

59.1

-22.6

12.5

7.4

-3.4

PEI

360

509

554

425

350

597

401

183

500

350

375

350

325

%

-19.5

41.4

8.8

-23.2

-17.7

1.7

-32.8

-54.4

173.2

-30.0

7.1

-6.7

-7.1

NS

1,917

2

,599

2,264

2,240

2,250

3,031

1,848

2,380

1,700

1,800

2,500

2,400

2,300

%

54.0

35.6

-12.9

-1.1

0.5

4.3

-39.0

28.8

-28.6

5.9

38.9

-4.0

-4.2

NB

2,033

1

,629

1,602

1,300

1,010

2,143

1,639

1,348

100

800

1,000

1,200

1,000

%

48.7

-19.9

-1.7

-18.9

-22.3

39.0

-23.5

-17.8

-92.6

700.0

25.0

20.0

-16.7

QUE

31,814

31

,833

31,308

23,700

23,500

22,809

24,642

23,603

23,900

23,500

23,500

23,500

23,500

%

23.0

0.1

-1.6

-24.3

-0.8

-23.6

8.0

-4.2

1.3

-1.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

ONT

32,344

40

,937

51,175

37,300

36,600

33,614

34,807

42,208

38,500

38,300

37,500

36,000

34,500

%

16.6

26.6

25.0

-27.1

-1.9

-24.5

3.5

21.3

-8.8

-0.5

-2.1

-4.0

-4.2

MAN

1,912

2

,252

3,073

3,500

3,100

2,968

3,464

4,740

3,000

3,200

3,100

3,100

3,100

%

68.9

17.8

36.5

13.9

-11.4

30.6

16.7

36.8

-36.7

6.7

-3.1

0.0

0.0

SASK

2,077

2

,879

4,797

4,400

3,800

2,636

3,752

6,536

4,800

3,800

3,800

3,900

3,700

%

100.3

38.6

66.6

-8.3

-13.6

-57.4

42.3

74.2

-26.6

-20.8

0.0

2.6

-5.1

ALTA

9,237

10

,511

15,903

15,900

15,800

14,445

21,028

14,058

13,900

15,300

15,900

15,700

16,300

%

55.1

13.8

51.3

0.0

-0.6

-14.2

45.6

-33.1

-1.1

10.1

3.9

-1.3

3.8

BC

15,017

17

,533

19,132

18,400

18,700

15,757

17,657

21,451

18,700

18,800

18,500

18,800

18,500

%

83.5

16.8

9.1

-3.8

1.6

-3.8

12.1

21.5

-12.8

0.5

-1.6

1.6

-1.6

CAN*

97,376

111

,558

131,170

107,800

105,700

98,407

109,868

116,994

105,900

106,500

106,900

105,700

103,900

%

32.6

14.6

17.6

-17.8

-1.9

-19.5

11.6

6.5

-9.5

0.5

0.4

-1.1

-1.7

Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesumof

theprovincesduetorounding.

(F)ForecastbyCMHC

*Canadiantotalexcludesterritories.Thepoint

estimatefortheforecastofnationalmultiplestartsis107,8

00units

for2013and105,7

00unitsfor2014.

Economicuncertaintyisreflec

tedbythe


10

4,5

00-1

11,1


00-1

17,5

00unitsfor2014.

**Quarterlylevelsareseasonallyadjustedatannualrates.

Ta

ble3:MultipleHousingStarts

(units**

and

percentage

change)

SOURCE:CMHC


21/33



2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD Semi-Detached 126 87 88 45 45

Row 149 135 121 80 80

Apartment 390 654 1,153 450 550

Total 665 876 1,362 575 675

PEI Semi-Detached 69 70 94 75 70

Row 50 47 127 50 50

Apartment 241 392 333 300 230

Total 360 509 554 425 350

NS Semi-Detached 373 418 420 330 340

Row 200 241 218 310 310

Apartment 1,344 1,940 1,626 1,600 1,600

Total 1,917 2,599 2,264 2,240 2,250

NB Semi-Detached 475 472 426 280 230

Row 221 211 162 150 130

Apartment 1,337 946 1,014 870 650

Total 2,033 1,629 1,602 1,300 1,010

QUE Semi-Detached 4,359 4,002 3,866 3,200 3,100

Row 2,029 1,855 1,904 1,400 1,500

Apartment 25,426 25,976 25,538 19,100 18,900

Total 31,814 31,833 31,308 23,700 23,500

ONT Semi-Detached 3,006 3,142 3,397 3,300 3,450

Row 10,255 9,288 10,577 8,800 9,500

Apartment 19,083 28,507 37,201 25,200 23,650

Total 32,344 40,937 51,175 37,300 36,600

MAN Semi-Detached 181 243 346 327 290

Row 387 672 538 588 521

Apartment 1,344 1,337 2,189 2,585 2,289

Total 1,912 2,252 3,073 3,500 3,100

SASK Semi-Detached 226 243 684 447 386

Row 485 878 813 1,136 981

Apartment 1,366 1,758 3,300 2,817 2,433

Total 2,077 2,879 4,797 4,400 3,800

ALTA Semi-Detached 2,737 2,811 3,886 3,962 3,938

Row 2,596 2,473 3,315 3,736 3,712

Apartment 3,904 5,227 8,702 8,202 8,150

Total 9,237 10,511 15,903 15,900 15,800

BC Semi-Detached 1,454 1,082 1,078 1,200 1,100

Row 3,485 3,647 3,201 3,300 3,600

Apartment 10,078 12,804 14,853 13,900 14,000

Total 15,017 17,533 19,132 18,400 18,700

CAN* Semi-Detached 13,006 12,570 14,285 13,211 12,889

Row 19,857 19,447 20,976 19,550 20,384

Apartment 64,513 79,541 95,909 75,024 72,452

Total 97,376 111,558 131,170 107,785 105,725

Source: CMHC (F) Forecast. * Totals may not add due to rounding.

Table 4: Multiple Housing Starts by Type (Units)


22/33



2010

2011

2012

2013(F)

2014(F)

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4(F)

2014Q1(F)

2014Q2(F)

2014Q3(F)

2014Q4(F)

NFLD

4,236

4,480

4,650

4,000

4,100

4,484

4,396

4,228

2,900

4,000

4,200

4,200

4,000

%

-4.1

5.8

3.8

-14

.0

2.5

3.0

-2.0

-3.8

-31

.4

37

.9

5.0

0.0

-4.8

PEI

1,487

1,521

1,614

1,425

1,350

1,656

1,672

1,308

1,050

1,300

1,400

1,400

1,300

%

5.9

2.3

6.1

-11

.7

-5.2

22

.5

1.0

-21

.8

-19

.7

23

.8

7.7

0.0

-7.1

NS

10,036

10,312

10,437

9,225

9,500

9,032

9,024

9,432

9,400

9,250

9,500

9,600

9,650

%

0.1

2.8

1.2

-11

.6

3.0

-4.5

-0.1

4.5

-0.3

-1.6

2.7

1.1

0.5

NB

6,702

6,599

6,403

6,200

6,000

6,140

6,464

6,356

5,850

5,800

6,000

6,200

6,000

%

-4.3

-1.5

-3.0

-3.2

-3.2

-0.1

5.3

-1.7

-8.0

-0.9

3.4

3.3

-3.2

QUE

80,027

77,167

77,381

73,100

75,000

70,660

72,844

74,412

74,500

74,750

75,750

75,250

74,250

%

1.2

-3.6

0.3

-5.5

2.6

-2.8

3.1

2.2

0.1

0.3

1.3

-0.7

-1.3

ONT

196,662

201,761

197,620

198,700

201,300

187,068

196,900

207,772

203,000

204,000

205,500

2

01,000

194,688

%

-0.2

2.6

-2.1

0.5

1.3

0.4

5.3

5.5

-2.3

0.5

0.7

-2.2

-3.1

MAN

13,164

13,944

14,008

13,700

13,800

13,080

13,848

14,020

13,800

13,700

13,900

13,800

13,800

%

0.6

5.9

0.5

-2.2

0.7

-5.8

5.9

1.2

-1.6

-0.7

1.5

-0.7

0.0

SASK

10,872

13,131

13,886

13,400

13,600

12,248

13,904

14,036

13,400

13,500

13,700

13,700

13,600

%

-2.0

20

.8

5.7

-3.5

1.5

-5.5

13

.5

0.9

-4.5

0.7

1.5

0.0

-0.7

ALTA

49,723

53,756

60,369

65,000

66,800

61,016

64,808

69,872

64,300

66,450

67,050

66,750

66,750

%

-13

.6

8.1

12

.3

7.7

2.8

3.6

6.2

7.8

-8.0

3.3

0.9

-0.4

0.0

BC

74,640

76,721

67,637

71,600

76,800

61,528

69,904

80,520

74,500

76,500

77,500

77,000

76,200

%

-12

.2

2.8

-11

.8

5.9

7.3

-1.2

13

.6

15

.2

-7.5

2.7

1.3

-0.6

-1.0

CAN*

447,549

459,392

454,005

456,700

468,200

427,356

454,188

482,426

462,700

469,300

474,500

4

68,900

460,200

%

-3.9

2.6

-1.2

0.6

2.5

-0.3

6.3

6.2

-4.1

1.4

1.1

-1.2

-1.8

Note:

Cana

diantota

lmaynota

ddtothesum

oftheprov

inces

duetoroun

ding.

(F)Forecast

by

CMHC

.

*Cana

diantota

ldoesnot

inc

ludetheterr

itories.

Thepo

intest

imate

forthe

forecasto

fnationa

lresi

dentia

lresa

les

is4

56

,700un

its

for

2013an

d468

,200un

its

for

2014

.Econom

icuncerta

inty

isre

flecte

dbythe

currentrangeo

fforecasts,w

hichvaries

from

439,400

-474

,000un

its

for

2013an

d438

,300

-498

,100un

its

for

2014

.

**Quarterly

leve

lsareseasona

llya

djuste

datannu

alrates.

Table5:TotalResidentialResales

(units**

and

percentage

change)

SOURCE:TheCanadianRealEstateAssociation(CREA)andQFREBbytheCentris

system.


23/33



2010

2011

2012

2013(F)

2014(F)

2013Q1

2013Q2

2013Q3

2013Q4(F)

2014Q1(F)

2014Q2(F)

201

4Q3(F)

2014Q4(F)

NFLD

235,341

251

,581

268,776

287,000

292,000

288,029

285,643

282,589

293,000

287,000

292,750

296,000

292,000

%

14.0

6.9

6.8

6.8

1.7

3.9

-0.8

-1.1

3.7

-2.0

2.0

1.1

-1.4

PEI

147,196

149

,618

152,250

155,000

156,500

152,671

159,551

157,655

150,000

150,000

157,650

160,000

158,000

%

0.8

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.0

-0.3

4.5

-1.2

-4.9

0.0

5.1

1.5

-1.3

NS

206,186

212

,512

220,413

218,000

220,000

218,768

214,631

217,626

221,000

218,000

220,000

222,000

220,000

%

4.8

3.1

3.7

-1.1

0.9

1.8

-1.9

1.4

1.6

-1.4

0.9

0.9

-0.9

NB

157,240

160

,545

161,116

161,000

160,500

159,737

159,735

162,714

161,500

158,000

161,875

162,000

160,000

%

1.5

2.1

0.4

-0.1

-0.3

-0.6

0.0

1.9

-0.7

-2.2

2.5

0.1

-1.2

QUE

241,455

252

,148

260,524

268,000

269,800

275,843

268,700

267,748

260,000

268,000

270,000

270,500

270,500

%

7.1

4.4

3.3

2.9

0.7

0.6

-2.6

-0.4

-2.9

3.1

0.7

0.2

0.0

ONT

341,425

365

,018

384,455

398,000

404,200

390,357

394,639

404,712

401,500

402,000

404,000

405,500

405,500

%

7.5

6.9

5.3

3.5

1.6

2.4

1.1

2.6

-0.8

0.1

0.5

0.4

0.0

MAN

222,132

234

,604

246,318

256,500

264,600

254,994

254,340

257,487

260,000

262,300

264,100

265,500

266,500

%

10.3

5.6

5.0

4.1

3.2

0.1

-0.3

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

SASK

242,258

259

,461

275,490

286,500

293,000

283,916

285,423

287,966

288,600

291,000

292,000

293,000

294,000

%

4.0

7.1

6.2

4.0

2.3

-0.2

0.5

0.9

0.2

0.8

0.3

0.3

0.3

ALTA

352,301

353

,394

363,208

379,200

387,400

375,767

375,980

383,461

381,000

383,100

386,600

389,600

391,600

%

3.1

0.3

2.8

4.4

2.2

1.8

0.1

2.0

-0.6

0.6

0.9

0.8

0.5

BC

505,178

561

,304

514,836

531,300

535,000

514,618

520,123

550,019

535,000

533,000

535,000

537,000

535,000

%

8.5

11.1

-8.3

3.2

0.7

1.8

1.1

5.7

-2.7

-0.4

0.4

0.4

-0.4

CAN*

338,710

362

,324

363,405

378,000

385,200

367,382

372,775

388,651

381,900

383,700

385,800

386,500

384,900

%

5.8

7.0

0.3

4.0

1.9

2.0

1.5

4.3

-1.7

0.5

0.5

0.2

-0.4

(F)ForecastbyCMHC.

**Quarterlyaveragesareseasonallyadjusted.

Note:Canadiantotalmaynotaddtothesumof

theprovincesduetorounding.

*Canadianaveragedoesnotincludetheterritories.Thepointestimatefortheforecastofnationalresidentialpricesis$378,0

00for2013and$385,2

00for2014.

Economicuncertaintyisreflectedbythe


$3

72,3

00-$

383,7

00for2013and$374,1

00-$

396,3

00for2014.

Table6

:AverageResidentialResalePrice

($**

and

percentage

change)

SOURCE:TheCanadianRealEstateAssociation

(CREA)andQFREBbytheCentris

system.


24/33



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 1.0 -2.9 3.3 2.7 2.3 1.6 0.8

PEI 1.2 -1.3 2.9 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.1

NS 0.9 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4

NB 0.6 0.1 -0.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0.6 0.7

QUE 1.2 -0.8 1.7 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.2

ONT 1.6 -2.5 1.7 1.8 0.8 1.6 1.6

MAN 1.7 0.0 1.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0

SASK 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 2.1 3.3 1.7

ALTA 3.1 -1.4 -0.4 3.8 2.7 2.8 2.3

BC 2.0 -2.1 1.7 0.8 1.7 -0.1 1.0

CAN* 1.7 -1.6 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.4

to 2.0 per cent for 2014.

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 1.0 per cent to 1.8 per cent for 2013 and 0.8 per cent

*The point estimate for the forecast of national employment growth is 1.4 per cent for 2013 and 1.4 per cent for 2014. Economic

National forecast reflects the September 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics.

Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC.

(annual percentage change)

Table 7: Employment


25/33



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD 13.2 15.5 14.4 12.7 12.5 11.4 11.3

PEI 10.8 12.1 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.4

NS 7.7 9.2 9.3 8.8 9.0 9.0 9.1

NB 8.5 8.8 9.3 9.5 10.2 10.8 10.8

QUE 7.2 8.5 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4

ONT 6.5 9.0 8.7 7.8 7.8 7.4 7.2

MAN 4.2 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.4 5.6

SASK 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.0 4.7 4.1 4.3

ALTA 3.6 6.6 6.5 5.5 4.6 4.6 4.5

BC 4.6 7.7 7.6 7.5 6.7 6.8 7.0

CAN* 6.1 8.3 8.0 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.0

to 7.4 per cent for 2014.

uncertainty is reflected by the current range of forecasts, which varies from 6.8 per cent to 7.4 per cent for 2013 and 6.6 per cent

*The point estimate for the forecast of national unemployment is 7.1 per cent for 2013 and 7.0 per cent for 2014. Economic

National forecast reflects the September 2013 Consensus Forecasts Report published by Consensus Economics.

Source: Statistics Canada, (F) Forecast by CMHC.

Table 8: Unemployment Rate

(per cent)


26/33



2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (E) 2013(F) 2014(F)

NFLD -1.0 -10.3 6.3 3.0 -0.5 4.0 1.8

PEI 0.9 0.3 2.6 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.3

NS 2.5 -0.3 1.9 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2

NB 0.9 -0.6 3.1 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.8

QUE 1.4 -0.5 2.5 1.9 0.8 1.3 2.0

ONT -0.

Documents

CMHC 2014 Housing Outlook