CMP COST ISSUES & IMPACT ON CONSUMABLES FOR MEMORY … · for DRAM • DRAM scaling comes to an end within ~ 5 years. TSV technology can be used to continue to scale density. HMC,

www.linx-consulting.com

CMP COST ISSUES & IMPACT ON CONSUMABLES FOR MEMORY AND LOGIC

CMPUG @CNSE April 16, 2016

Mike CorbettManaging Partner

[email protected]


2

Agenda

• INTRODUCTION TO LINX CONSULTING

• SEMI INDUSRTY OUTLOOK

• COST TRENDS IN LEADING EDGE SEMICONDUCTOR DEVICES

• OUTLOOK FOR CMP/CONCLUSIONS

See Beyond the Horizon


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LINX BACKGROUND



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Linx Consulting

1. We help our clients to succeed by creating know ledge and developing unique insights at the intersection of electronic thin film processes and the chemicals industry

2. The know ledge is based on a core understanding of the semiconductor device technology; manufacturing processes and roadmaps; and the structural industry dynamics

3. This know ledge is leveraged to create advanced models, simulations and real-world forecasts

4. Our perspectives are by direct research and leveraging our extensive experience throughout the global industry value chain, including:

• Experience in global electronics and advanced materials and thin film processing industries • Experience in the global chemicals industry• Experience at Device Producers• Experience at OEMs



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Linx Consulting Service Portfolio

• Multi-Client Reports– IC Materials

• CMP• Deposition• Patterning• Cleaning• Gases

– III-Vs, TSV, WLP, Solar

• Proprietary Projects– Market Planning– M & A– Growth and Diversification– Supply Chain Optimization– Technology Commercialization– Strategic Planning– Voice of the Customer

• Econometric Semiconductor Forecast– Financial planning– Sales and Operational planning– Forecasting

Hilltop Economics LLC

• Cost Modeling– Client demand modeling– Product development– Bill of Materials quantification

IC Knowledge, LLC

– Semi– LCD

– Packaging– PV

– Nano Technology– LED/ Compound Semi



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Industry Analysis Reports Offered

CMP Focused:1. CMP Technologies and Markets to the Sub-10nm Node (6th edition)2. Specialty Abrasives in CMP (4th edition)3. CMP in TSV (2nd edition)4. Wafer Polishing Technologies and Markets

5. Advanced Thin Films for FEOL and BEOL Applications (5th Edition)6. Advanced Cleaning and Surface Preparation: Technologies and Markets (5th Edition)7. Advanced Patterning Forecasting (Semi-Annual)8. Chemicals and Materials for TSV Applications9. Electronic Specialty Gases10. Global Market for MO Precursors

11. The Econometric Semiconductor Forecasting Service

12. Strategic Cost Model



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SEMI INDUSTRY OUTLOOK



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Econometric Semiconductor Forecast –Materials Demand Track Silicon

Source: Hilltop Economics LLC

The mean absolute error is an exceptionally low 3.5%, an indication that the model and forecasting process has effectively captured

semiconductor MSI’s relationship to the macro economy.

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SEMI MSIESF Forecast

Annual Percent Change In MSI2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-0.1% 0.4% 11.4% 3.9% 6.5% 5.2%History: SEMI

Forecast: Hilltop Economics

March 2015 Update 2014Q4 2015Q1F 2015Q2F 2015Q3F 2015Q4FMSI 2550 2491 2679 2701 2619%Change -1.8% -2.3% 7.6% 0.8% -3.0%%Change vs prior year

15.5% 5.4% 3.6% 4.0% 2.7%



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Device Segmentation

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Silicon Demand

<300mm ASIC MPU DRAM NAND-2D NAND-3D Other

Linx, IC Knowledge



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Electronic Materials are Correlated to Silicon Demand

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

mill

ions

MS

I

Semi Linx ESF Materials Market

95% Correlation

2013 impacted by:Flat volume growthASP declinesYen devaluation



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Correlation of Materials to MSI

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total Wafer Fab Materials Market $M

ALD Clean CMP CVD Litho Plating PVD Spin On



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COST ESTIMATES FOR CMP PROCESSING



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The Drivers of Change and Challenges for Manufacturing Technology

3D Packaging

Gate Architecture

New Memory 450mm

EUV



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ASIC – Processed Wafer Costs

25%

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

Processed Wafer Cost - $/wafer Cost CMP Slurries and Pads ($)

28nm 20nm % Increase

Source: strategic Cost Model, ICKnowledge and Linx ConsultingSee Beyond the Horizon


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DRAM – Processed Wafer Costs

56%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000



Source: strategic Cost Model, ICKnowledge and Linx ConsultingSee Beyond the Horizon


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2D NAND – Processed Wafer Costs

65%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000



Total CoO includes Depreciation, maintenance, labor, facilities and consumablesSource: strategic Cost Model, ICKnowledge and Linx ConsultingSee Beyond the Horizon


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CMP OUTLOOK



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300mm Wafer Growth

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MSI Growth

Logic Memory

10% CAGR

8% CAGR



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Memory Growth Drivers

• Ru electrodes may be used with novel dielectrics for DRAM

• DRAM scaling comes to an end within ~ 5 years. TSV technology can be used to continue to scale density. HMC, etc.

• 2D and 3D NAND will be integrated simultaneously. @D structures will require higher planarity and 3D will open up new W polishes as well as oxide steps

• MRAM provides non-volatile storage, high read write speeds, lower energy dissipation and high write endurance

Sources: Matheson, JG Park, UMC/Sematech



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Logic Growth Drivers

• IMEC has demonstrated the integration of high-mobility channel InGaAs n-channel and Ge p-channel metal–oxide–semiconductor field-effect transistors

• CVD Co improves Cu wetting and extends Cu gap fill. CVD Co is thin, continuous, conformal layer that repairs any discontinuities for barrier/seed

• A cross-section TEM of a 50-nm trench structure coated with a ~5nm Ru:TaN liner followed by ECD copper. The filling characteristics are equivalent to seeded copper, and direct plated films possess generally larger grain size characteristics

Sources: Applied Materials, IMEC and Albany NanoTech



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Conclusions

• Strong industry growth outlook over the next several years

• CMP Consumables are not major fab cost driver

• For 22nm and 14nm, the industry needs to have extremely tight control on the slurries and pad quality to control defects

• In advanced slurries, morphology of the slurry particles will be critical - No agglomerations and angular particles

• Trend to low abrasives – 0.5% or lower solids content as the slurry formulation trend is to greater chemo effect than mechanical effect

• Selectivity requirements will prove challenging to slurries as selectivity is increased and pads are tuned as a key point of the overall process control

• Defectivity control will be key for pads in terms of reducing scratching, dishing and erosion

• New applications in both memory and logic will continue to drive the opportunities for CMP going forward


Documents

CMP COST ISSUES & IMPACT ON CONSUMABLES FOR MEMORY … · for DRAM • DRAM scaling comes to an end within ~ 5 years. TSV technology can be used to continue to scale density. HMC,