Co Che Dieu Hanh Lai Suat Cua Viet Nam

7/31/2019 Co Che Dieu Hanh Lai Suat Cua Viet Nam

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B GIO DC V O TOTRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM

KHOA O TO SAU I HC------------

ti: C CH IU HNH LI SUT CA NHNN VITNAM V NHNG VN T RA

LP CAO HCM 1 - KHO 20GVHD: PGS.TS TRNG QUANG THNG

NHM THC HIN: NHM 4

THNG 04 NM 2012


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Nhn xt ca Ging vin:..............................................................................................................................................

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DANH SCH NHM THC HIN

STT H TN GHI CH

1 Bi Anh Chnh

2 Nguyn Th Thanh Ho3 L Th Ngc Mai

4 Nguyn nh Nam

5 Nguyn Th Kim Hong

6 Bi Th Thanh Hng

7 Mai Th L Huyn

8 Nguyn Th Kim Oanh

9 Phm Ngc Tho

10 Vng Vn Thun

11 Trn Th Xun Thy

12 Nguyn Th Bch Thy13 Nguyn Trn Qunh Tin

14 inh Th Huyn Trm

15 ng L Hng Trc


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1

MC LC

CHNG I

TNG QUAN V NGN HNG TRUNG NG V C CH IU HNH LI SUT

1. Tnh cht v c cu t chc ca h thng Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) ..................................1

1.1 Tnh cht ................................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 C cu t chc NHTW ...............................................................................................................1

1.2.1 Quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn ........................................................................2

a/ Ngn hng trung ng bit lp vi chnh ph ..............................................................................2

b/ Ngn hng trung ng trc thuc chnh ph ................................................................................3

1.2.2 Quan h t chc trong ni b NHTW ....................................................................................4

2. Mng li ca Ngn hng Trung ng .......................................................................................4

3. Hot ng ca Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW) .........................................................................5

4. Cc cng c iu tit kinh t v m: .............................................................................................8

4.1 Mc tiu iu tit kinh t v m ca NHTW ..............................................................................8

4.2 Cc cng c iu tit .................................................................................................................8

a/ Cng c th trng m (Open market operations): ........................................................................8

b/ Li sut cho vay chit khu (discount widow rates) ....................................................................10

c/ D tr bt buc (reseves requirements) .......................................................................................10

d/ Cung ng tin hay tin mt php nh (monetary base supply) ....................................................12

5. V chnh sch li sut ca ngn hng trung ng Vit Nam (SBV) ..............................................12

5.1 Gii thiu v Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam ............................................................................12

5.2 Vai tr v chc nng ca NHNN Vit Nam: ..............................................................................12

5.3 L lun chung v li sut............................................................................................................ 15

5.3.1 Khi nim v phn loi li sut ................................................................................................ 15

5.3.2 Cc loi li sut thng gp ....................................................................................................15

5.3.3 Cch thc qun l li sut .......................................................................................................16

a/ C nh li sut: ..........................................................................................................................16


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2

b/ Li sut th ni: ...........................................................................................................................16

5.3.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n li sut ........................................................................................17

a/ Thi gian o hn: .....................................................................................................................17

b/ Kh nng thanh khon: ................................................................................................................17c/ Ri ro: .........................................................................................................................................17

d/ Chi ph qun l ti sn: ................................................................................................................17

e/ Lm pht: .....................................................................................................................................17

f/ Cung tin t: ................................................................................................................................18

CHNG II

THC T IU HNH LI SUT CA NGN HNG NH NC VIT NAM

1. Tm lc din bin chnh ca vic iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng Nh nc qua tng thi k.19

1.1 C ch thc thi chnh sch li sut c nh (Giai on t 1986 n thng 5/1992) ....................19

1.2 C ch iu hnh khung li sut (Giai on t thng 06/1992 n nm 1995) ............................20

1.3 C ch iu hnh li sut trn (Giai on t nm 1996 n thng 07/2000) ...............................21

1.4 C ch iu hnh li sut c bn km bin (Giai on t nm 2000 n thng 05/2002) ......22

1.5 C ch li sut tha thun (T giai on nm 2002 n thng 5/2008) ......................................23

1.6 C ch iu hnh da vo li sut c bn, trn li sut huy ng v li sut tha thun: Giai on

2009 n nay ...................................................................................................................................25

2. Nghin cu nh lng tc ng ca li sut ln cc kha cnh ca cc yu t v m v nn kinh t

nc ta: ...........................................................................................................................................30

2.1 Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht ........................................................................................ 30

a/ Tng quan kinh t v m nm 2011 .............................................................................................30

b/ Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht .........................................................................................32

2.2 Tc ng ca li sut ln hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip .............................................36

2.3 Vn cn nghin cu tip: ......................................................................................................37


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3

CHNG III

KINH NGHIM IU HNH LI SUT CA MT S NC TRN TH GII

Cc D Tr Lin Bang M (FED) ..................................................................................................39

Ngn hng Trung ng Anh (BOE) ................................................................................................41

Ngn hng Trung ng Chu u (ECB) .........................................................................................41

Ngn hng Trung ng c (RBA) ..................................................................................................42

Ngn hng Trung ng Nht Bn (BOJ) ........................................................................................42

CHNG IV

CC VN T RA

4.1. nh gi c ch iu hnh li sut Vit Nam trong thi gian qua ..........................................444.2 Mt s vn t ra: .................................................................................................................44

4.3 Mt s gii php hon thin c ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam hin nay: ..............46


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C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thn

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20 Trang 1

CHNG ITNG QUAN V NGN HNG TRUNG NG V C CH IU HNH LI SUT

1. Tnh cht v c cu t chc ca h thng Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW)

Ngy nay, tt c cc quc gia trn th gii, d ln hay nh u c mt NHTW (v d: Thy in l Bank Sweden, Anh l Bank of England, Trung Quc l Peoples Bank of China, Ngn hng trung ng M - Cd tr lin bang M - Federal Reserve System (FED), ). Cc ngn hng ny m nhn vai tr rt qutrng nh vic kim sot v iu tit mc cung tin cng nh cc vn lin quan n tin t, qun l hong ca h thng ti chnh v tin t trong nc, thc hin nhiu nhim v vi Chnh ph.

Phng thc t chc v hot ng ca mi NHTW c th khc nhau khi so snh NHTW ny vi mNHTW khc ty theo mc pht trin ca nn kinh t v th trng ti chnh mi quc gia. Vi tngiai on pht trin ca mnh, nn kinh t th trng i hi nhng c cu t chc v hot ng thch hca cc thit ch c lin quan phc v cho n nh NHTW, b my chnh quyn v nguyn tc qun l.

D tn gi c khc nhau nh Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam, Ngn hng Quc gia Hungary, Ngn h

quc gia Iran, Ngn hng Trung ng Chile, NHTW Guatermala,nhng nhn chung th t nh cht, hong v vai tr ca NHTW u c nhiu im chung do cng phc v nhng mc tiu kh ging nhau.

1.1 Tnh cht

- Ngn hng TW c mt vi tnh cht chung sau:

- L mt nh ch cng cng c th bit lp hoc ph thuc chnh ph, chu trch nhim trong vic qul v iu tit cc vn lin quan n tin t, phc v cho s tn ti v pht trin ca cng ng.

- L thc th ti chnh cao nht v ln nht trong nc, cng chnh ph chu trch nhim v vic vn hchnh sch tin t - ti chnh, gip kinh t tng trng v n nh gi c

- L cu ni gia chnh ph vi cc hot ng ti chnh ca n vi nn kinh t- L cu ni gia th trng ti chnh tin t vi nc ngoi

- Va l mt thit ch hnh chnh va l mt doanh nghi p. Li tc ca n dng trang tri chi ph chhot ng ton h thng, phn cn li d np vo Ngn sch nh nc

- Chnh sch tin t ca NHTW phi h tr chnh sch ti kha ca Chnh ph v ngc li.

- Cng c chnh ca NHTW l cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t.

1.2 C cu t chc NHTW

Tnh a dng v vn ha v lch s hnh thnh l nguyn nhn chnh to ra s khc nhau trong cch thc

chc i sng v x hi gia cc quc gia trn th gii. NHTW cng nh c cu chnh quyn l cc thch phn nh thc t chc i sng v x hi ca mi quc gia, do vy cng khc nhau gia cc quc gny khi so snh vi cc quc gia khc. S khc nhau ny khng ch din ra trong quan h t chc NHTWm cn din ra trong ni b ca NHTW.


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1.2.1 Quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn

Hnh thc t chc ca bt k nh ch x hi no bao gi cng b tc ng bi 03 nhn t: Thi quen v vha, Quan im chnh tr v Nhu cu hin ti ca nn kinh t. iu gii thch v sao cc quc gia khnhau, khng t th nhiu b my NHTW khc nhau

Hin c 02 quan im hay 02 trng phi v quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn. l, (a) trphi NHTW l mt nh ch bit lp, v (b) trng phi NHTW trc thuc chnh ph

a/ Ngn hng trung ng bit lp vi chnh ph

in hnh ca trng phi th nht nh cc nc M, Php, Cng ha lin bang c, Anh Quc v NhBn, M hnh Ngn hng Trung ng theo kiu ny thng c din t bng m hinh sau

Quan h gia Ngn hng trung ng v Chnh ph theo trng phi bit lp nhau

Kiu m hnh ny b nh hng rt ln bi quan im, t tng Chu u hay trit hc Hy Lp. Theo ngi ta cho rng trong 02 khi nim dn tc, nhn dn v quc gia th khi nim dn tc v nhn dn l lhn. Cng ng nhn dn hay dn tc ra quc gia, ch khng phi quc gia ra dn tc. duy tcuc sng, trt t x hi, t bo v mnh, ngi ta mi hnh thnh nn B my trng coi vic thc thi luphp, x hi, phc v li ch ca dn tc, nhn dn m ngy nay chng ta gi l chnh quyn.


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Ngn hng trung ng l ni qun l tin, m ti chnh li l ngun sng v tn ti ca mi chnh quyn. Vhot ng ca NHTW nh hng qu ln n i sng ca to n dn. Chnh v th, c rt nhiu p lmun NHTW t di s qun l ca chnh ph, tch bch di s qun l ca Nhn dn, cng ng mi din thng l Quc hi. Tuy nhin, NHTW theo trng phi ny vn nghing v hng NHTW phc t di s qun l ca Nhn dn, cng ng, tch bit vi chnh ph (nh hnh v), v khng ai bo rng nu NHTW ri vo tay qun l ca Chnh ph th h ly g s xy ra so vi tn ch l NHTW phphc v Nhn dn. Ngy nay, NHTW l mt thit ch cng tn ti song song vi chnh quyn, di s gist trc tip ca Quc hi.

M hnh NHTW theo dng ny th nhim v ca Chnh quyn l qun l hnh chnh, duy tr php lut, bv lnh th, thc hin cc nhim v cng cng khc n nh v pht trin cng ng, cn vic NHTcung ng, qun l v iu tit hot ng cung ng tin, ti chnh, hot ng ngn hng, l cch ring ca n hng ti nhng mc tiu qun l kinh t chung ca t nc. Ti M iu ny c lut htrong Lut Aldrich Vreeland (1908), Lut Cc d tr lin bang (1913), Lut ngn hng (1935), Tha thu

gia Kho bc lin bang v H thng d tr lin bang Hoa K (1951)b/ Ngn hng trung ng trc thuc chnh ph

Cng tn ti song song vi m hnh trn l m hnh t chc NHTW trc thuc chnh ph. Ty theo cim lch s ca tng nc m m hnh NHTW theo kiu ny c th di quyn trc tip ca ngi nu chnh ph, hay di quyn iu khin ca mt i din ca chnh ph nh B trng ti chnh,

M hnh ny hot ng trn thi Chnh sch tin t l mt phn ca chnh sch cai tr, cng nh ti chnv tin t l phng tin ca chnh quyn. Thng cc nc ang pht trin, cc nc Chu theo m hnny nh Vit Nam, Singapore, i Loan, Indonesia, M hnh ny ra i ch yu cc nc ngho, angpht trin hay sau chin tranh, v nhng nc ny cn tp trung mi ngun lc nn kinh t mt cch trit nht, nhm phc v hiu qu cho chnh sch v k hoch pht trin ca chnh quyn, bao gi cng ihi mt s tp quyn cao . Ch c nhng chnh ph c mc tp quyn cao mi to c s n nh cnthit v chnh tr v vn dng c ton b ti nguyn cho cc mc tiu u t v pht trin lu di. V thm NHTW trc thuc s qun l, iu hnh ca Chnh quyn.

M hnh ny c th c din gii bng m hnh sau:


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M hnh NHTW trc thuc chnh ph

1.2.2 Quan h t chc trong ni b NHTW

Mi ngn hng trung ng c mt cch t chc ni b khc nhau ty theo c im lch s v chnh tr cmi nc. V c cu t chc ch c xc nh mc tiu hnh thnh ca n v, c rt nhiu cch t ch

hin nay trong cc NHTW.

2. Mng li ca Ngn hng Trung ng

Ty theo c im hnh thnh, NHTW mi nc phn chia mng li chi nhnh tc nghip ca mnh ttheo cc cch khc nhau. Tuy nhin, c mt s c im chung trong vic t chc mng li ca cNHTW l:

- Mi chi nhnh l mt m hnh thu nh ca NHTW Cc NHTW chi nhnh l nhng n v trc thuThng c NHTW, c iu khin bi mt Ban gim c.

- NHTW chi nhnh l mt i din chnh thc ca NHTW ti a phng. Cho nn n c y chnng, trchnhim v hot ng ging nh mt NHTW

- Mng li ca NHTW hp thnh b phn quan trong v ln nht trong vic chuyn nhng quynh v cung ng tin, iu tit tin t, t gi, li sut, tn dng, t NHTW hay hi ng Chnsch tin t lan ta ra nn kinh t. Mi quan h gia cc c quan xy dng chin lc, chnh sch tc nghip ny hp thnh h thng NHTW vi nhng nh hng mnh m v a dng ln ton nn i sng kinh t ca mt quc gia


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3. Hot ng ca Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW)1

Pht hnh Tin:

n v trc thuc NHTW chu trch nhim cng tc pht hnh l V pht hnh tin. V nguyn tc,

nhng quy nh nht nh chi phi vic pht hnh ca NHTW trn 02 phng c bn: thi im pht hv s lng pht hnh. Hay tr li cu hi nn gia tng hay gim cung ng tin? V sao tng v gim? Tngim loi cung ng tin no (M1, M2, M2 hay L)

2? Tng gim vo lc no? Tng hay gim bao nhiu? Vbng bin php no.

Mt trong nhng Nguyn l c nh hng v p dng rng ri nht l Nguyn l trao i ca Nh kinh hc Ivring Fisher, quan nim rng khi lng tin cn c to ra cho nn kinh t (M), trong tin ml b phn ht nhn, ph thuc vo 3 bin s

- P: Mc gi c bnh qun ca hng ha ti thi im ang xt trong nn kinh t,

- Q (hay T): Tng s lng hng ha

- V: l vn tc vng quay tin t, o lng s ln m tin t dch chuyn to ra tng gi tr hha Q ni trn

Vi nhng bin s ny ng a ra phng trnh trao i l:

M.V = P.Q

Hay tch s gia tng khi tin t m nn kinh t cn trong nm, vi vn tc chu chuyn bnh qun ca ticng trong nm y s tng ng vi mc gi bnh qun nhn vi s lng ca n v sn phm v dv c nn kinh t to ra trong nm.

C rt nhiu cch thc pht hnh tin nh pht hnh qua ng chnh ph, qua th trng m (th trng cp, th cp, th trng vn, th trng tin t v cc th trng ti chnh khc), qua ngn hng trung giaqua th trng vng v ngoi t, pht hnh cn i.

1 C th tham khao thm gio trnh Tin v hot ng ngn hng TS.L Vinh Danh t trang 82 n trang 112 in nm 2002 M0: tng lng tin mt, cn c gi l tin c s- bao gm tin mt trong lu thng do cc c nhn (h gia nh v doanghip khng phi ngn hng nm gi) v d tr bt buc ca ngn hng thng mi ti ngn hng trung ng ; M1: bng tlng tin mt (M0) v tin m cc ngn hng thng mi gi ti ngn hng trung ng ; M2: tit gi tit kim c k hn; Mbng M2 cng vi tt c cc khon tit kim khc gi ti cc t chc tn dng; M4 ( Anh): bng M0 cng vi tin trong ti khocc loi; L (Y,r ) : hm cu tin ph thuc vo thu nhp v li sut


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Ch ngn hng ca cc ngn hng Trung gian (NHTG)

Vi vai tr l ngn hng trung tm c cc Ngn hng trung gian v h thng ti chnh trong mi quc gNHTW thc hin nhng cng vic rt quan trng cho cc NHTG v h thng ti chnh, cng vic l

- Trung tm thanh ton, chuyn nhng, b tr ca ccNHTG: Nghip v ny c thc hin troqua vic theo di ghi chp trong s theo di ca NHTW, bi l cc Ngn hng trung gian u c tkhon v lu gi tin mt thng d cng d tr bt buc ca h ti NHTW . Hay chng ta gi nna l bt ton ghi s.

- Qun l hot ng d tr bt buc ca h thng NHTG: Hot ng thanh ton b tr v chuynhng ti sn c3 cho cc NHTG ca NHTW s d tin hnh c v mt trong nhng nguyn nhchnh l NHTW l ngn hng c trch nhim qun l tt c d tr bt buc tin mt ca NHTGHin nay trong hot ng qun l d tr ca NHTW c cc loi d tr sau:

o Tng d tr (Total Depository Insititution Reservers) vit tt l TR bng C s tin t (MonetaBase MB) tr i tin mt trong nhn dn (C)

o D tr bt buc (Required Reserves) vit tt l RR, l nhng khon d tr c quy nh blut, tnh bng cch ly t l d tr bt buc (%) (k hiu l ) nhn cho tin gi ca nhn dvo NHTG (k hiu l D)

o D tr d tha (Excess Reserves) vit tt l ER: l nhng khon tin mt di ra cao hn bt bu

do cc NHTG li v l do khng cho vay c ht, hay khng c nhng im u t an ton

o D tr vay mn (Borrowed Reserves) vit tt l BR l nhng phn d tr m NHTG c do vay mn ca NHTW phng thc chit khu

o D tr khng vay mn (Non borrowed Reserves) l nhng khon d tr do NHTG t lkhng hi l khon vay mn ca ai

o D tr t do (Free Reverses) vit tt l FR l mt i lng dng theo di tnh hnh hot v thc lu gi ca cc NHTG

- FR ln hn hoc bng 0: cc NHTG ang bnh trng ti sn c thng qua vay mn v h t l dtr bt buc

- FR < 0 cc NHTG ang hot ng yu, lng cho vay v u t pht trin chm

hay

3: Ti sn c gm: tin mt, vng bc, qu; tin gi ti NHNN; tin gi cc t chc tn dng khc; chng khon kinh doanh;cc cng c ti chnh phi sinh; cho vay khch hng; chng khon u t; gp vn, u t di hn; ti sn c nh; bt ng snu t,


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o C s tin t khgn vay mn (Non borrowed Base) vit tt l NB l lng tin mt thcngoi lu thng.

Cu cnh cui cng ca h thng NHTG:Khi NHTG ri vo tnh trng thiu tin do rt tin

ca nhn dn v li sut thp, v lm pht cao lm cho li sut tr nn m, v c nhng ti sn khhoc cc loi u t khc c li hn, hp dn hn, hay v khng cn tin tng vo hot ng cNgn hng mnh gi tin na,. Trong nhng trng hp nh th, nu NHTG khng xoay kp tis ri vo tnh trng pht sn, tin cho vay khng v kp th gii php cui cng l n NHTW vtin nh cu cnh cho vay cui cng (lender of last report). NHTW cho NHTG vay trn phnthc gi l cho vay chit khu (Discount Lending). Li sut ca loi cho vay nay l li sut chkhu (Discount Rate).NHTW lm c iu ny v n l n v duy nht c in tin, li sut do quy nh. V bng phng thc ny m NHTW c th iu tit c cung tin t trong nn kinh t

Ch ngn hng ca Chnh ph: Thng qua vic

o M ti khon v i l ti chnh (Fiscal Agent), NHTW thay mt cho Chnh ph thu mt loi thu gin thu. M ti khon cho Chnh ph gi s tin vo trong qu trnh chi tiu. Tli cho Chnh ph nhng khon k gi ni trn. Cho Chnh ph vay nhng lc kt tin, thmt chnh ph pht hnh tri phiu vo th trng

o C vn v cc chnh sch ti chnh cho Chnh ph: Bao gm vic hng k bo co chi tit tnh hnh kinh t, gi c v tng cu, a ra trn qun im cu mnh, hng dn chnh phtheo nhng ngh hp l v mi vn lin quan n ngn sch,

Qun l qu d tr Quc gia: bao gm cc loi ti sn chin lc m t nc no cng phi d

li, khng bao gi s dung ht, cho nhng trng hp kh cp vn nhng chi ph bt ng, chnhn: thin tai, ng t, lt li, hn hn, sp ti chnh, chin tranh, b cm vn,

Qun l h thng ti chnh Quc gia: NHTW c xc nh vai tr l th lnh ca h thng tchnh trong nc, NHTW chu trch nhim chnh trong vic cng c, nghin cu pht trin, gist cc hot ng ca H thng ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh trong nc nhm lun m bc rng ton b hot ng tin t, ngn hng v ang din ra theo quy trnh, hp lut l trochiu hng phc v tt nht cho cc mc tiu kinh t ca t nc. Hot ng ny cn c gihot ng cng c nn tng (Background Consolidation) h thng ti chnh cho nn kinh t.

iu tit kinh t v m: Mi hot ng ca NHTW u nh hng mt thit n mc cung ti

(Money Supply) trong nn kinh t. Cung ng tin thay i lm bin ng tiu dng, u t, slng quc gia v gi c. Mt cch gin tip, mi hot ng ca NHTW nh hng su sc n nkinh t quc gia. Trong , phi k n hc thuyt ca Keynes vi cc l thuyt v bn tay v h(visible Hand), thit lp h thng thanh ton v chuyn nhng quc t (International Transactioand International Payments), t gi hi ai c nh (Fixed Exchange Rates),


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4. Cc cng c iu tit kinh t v m:

4.1 Mc tiu iu tit kinh t v m ca NHTW

Tuy m hnh, cch thc hot ng c khc nhau, nhng nhn chung cc NHTW trn th gii u th hicc mc tiu gn ging nhau trong vic vn hnh, iu tit nn kinh t v m thng qua chnh sch tin

l:

- Chnh sch tin t phi phc v cho mc ch m bo nn kinh t c tng trng kinh t thc (real economic grow)

- Phi hng v vic n nh gi c: Gi c c t l lm pht thp l mc tiu ca mi nn kinh t. Klm pht thp th mc thu nhp thc ca ngi dn dng, do vy i sng ngi lao ng tt hnhn dn tin tng hn vo chnh quyn v chnh sch ca Nh nc v ngc li. Hay tm gtrong phng chm ca cch iu hnh kinh t v m ca NHTW l tng trng nhanh vi gi n nh (high economic growth with stable economics)

- Phi to ra mt nn tng ti chnh n nh (stable financial background)- Phi gp phn lin tc m rng sn lng tim nng (potential output) ca nn kinh t quc gia nh

t ai, ti nguyn thin nhin, ngun lc con ngi, tim nng khoa hc k thut v vnBng cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t sau m Ngn hng Trung ng c th thc hin c cc mc titrn4.2 Cc cng c iu titThng thng, khi iu tit v m ca NHTW c th hin ch iu tit cung ng tin ph hp, ththng qua cc mc tiu trung gian (intermediate targets), ph bin nht l li sut t gi hi i v d trc th hin tm lc qua biu iu tit v m ca NHTW sau y:

a/ Cng c th trng m (Open market operations):

y l cng c thng xuyn s dng nht, hiu qu nht, nh hng rng ri nht v c xem l qutrng nht ca NHTW.

Nghip v th trng m c hai loi:


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- Loi c php mua hoc bn li chng khon vo nhng thi im nht nh sau khi nghip vc tin hnh.

- V loi khng c php mua hay bn li

C ch vn hnh nh sau:

Khi NHTW em chng khon ra th trng m bn NHTW thu tin mt hoc sc v lm:

- Gim lng cung ng tin mt trong lu thng ca NHTW t gim kh nng v cng giadch trong nn kinh t

- Khi NHTG mua chng khon (d bng sc hay tin mt) th d tr tin ca NHTG gim. Lm gikh nng cp pht tn dng ca cc NHTG, lm cung tin nn kinh t tht cht li

- H ly l khi NHTW tung chng khon ra bn, cung chng khon tng cao, gi r lm li sut tln. NHTG phi tng li sut tin gi, khng ngi dn s rt tin t ra mua Chng khon. Kt ql li sut tng, tin khan him. Lm gim t gi v gi c hng ha.

- V ngc li

Phng thc iu hnh nn kinh t cn th hin trong 02 trng hp

- Trng hp 01: Khi nn kinh t c lm pht cao v gia tng, NHTW c n gim khi lng tin cu

ng. NHTW s bn chng khon ra

- Trng hp 02: Khi nn kinh t c du hiu suy thoi, tng trng chm, NHTW cn gia tng khlng tin cung ng. NHTW s mua chng khon ny vo

Nh vy, c cc mi quan h

- T l nghch gia cung tin vi li sut

- T l thun gia cung tin vi d tr

- T l nghch gia cung tin vi t gi

- T l thun gia cung tin vi lm pht


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b/ Li sut cho vay chit khu (discount widow rates)

Hai hnh thc cho vay chit khu c NHTW quyt nh mc li sut l

- Cho vay bnh thng vi k qu (collateral)

- Cho vay di hnh thc cu cnh cho vay cui cng (lender of last resort)

Li sut cho vay chit khu c 02 tc dng, mt trc tip v mt gin tip.

- Gin tip: Lm tng hay gim li sut cho vay ca NHTG, do tc ng n cung ng tin v tdng

- Trc tip l lm tng hay gim d tr ca NHTG. Do vy, tc ng n lng cho vay ti u dng u t trong nn kinh t

Gi d tnh hung: NHTW tng li sut chit khu. H ly l vic li sut chit khu tng lm cho NHTkhng th vay ca NHTW nhiu v d dng nh trc. NHTG phi gim bt cho vay m bo d tr tli. Nh vy:

- Tc ng th nht l n trc tip lm tng d tr, gim cho vay v hu qu l tng cu, sn lngim theo, li sut cho vay tng ln

- Tc ng th hai l n lm cho NHTG thc rng, trong trng hp khn cp cn vay nnNHTW, NHTG phi tr li sut cao. iu ny buc NHTG t t nng li sut ln theo khi thit hi nng khi vay ca NHTW. Li sut tip tc tng, tht cht cung ng tin v tc ng n nkinh t

Phn ng ngc li cho cung tin, li sut, tiu dng khi NHTW gim li sut chit khu xung.

c/ D tr bt buc (reseves requirements)4

D tr khng vay mn (NBR) ca cc NHTG b tc ng bi nghip v th trng m. D tr vay m(BR) b tc ng bi li sut cho vay chit khu. Tuy nhin, d tr bt buc (RR) b tc ng trc tip bi l d tr bt buc quy nh ca NHTW.

Vi r: l t l % gia tin mt m nhn dn mun gi trong tay vi lng tin k gi ca h ti NHTG

R l d tr thc t ca cc ngn hng

Th tha s tin t (vit tt l TSTT hay Mm - Money Multiplier) trong cung ng tin ca NHTG c thin qua cng thc sau:

4 Tham kho thm trong ti liu Tin v hot ng ca Ngn hng L Vinh Danh xut bn 2009 t trang 129 n trang 13


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Vi r l t l gia lng tin mt m dn chng gi li chi tiu (C1) chia (:) cho tng s tin nhn dn kgi trong ti khon khng k hn v tin ngn hng trong lu thng (D)

Gi nh r = 0%, tc t l tin mt ngi dn mun nm gi trong tay so vi lng tin gi ca h tiNHTG bng 0% hay ngi dn gi tt c tin ca h vo ngn hng. Lc ny, tha s tin t c m tbng cng thc sau:

Hay ni cch khc, xt trng hp Tha s tin t ph thuc hon ton vo t l d tr bt buc ca NHTW

V d:

-NHTW quy nh t l d tr bt buc l 10%. Th TSTT =%10

1= 10 ln. Gi s, by gi t mt khon k

gi (C25) l 1.000.000 VND th vi TSTT l 10 ln, NHTG s to ra mt bt t hay tng cung ng tin ng

hng M16

= 1.000.000 VND * 10 ln = 10 triu ng

- Nu cng vi mc tin gi , t l d tr bt buc l 20%, th TSTT =%20

1= 5 ln, th bt t NHT

(bank-notes) ghi nhn lc ny M1 = 1.000.000 VND * 5 ln = 5 triu ng

Nh vy, s thay i t l d tr bt buc lm tng, gim nhanh chng M1, tng cung tin t v nh hng mcch su sc n gi c, tng cu v sn lng quc gia.

5 C hay c sch k hiu l MB (monetary base) = lng tin gi trong ngn hng (C2) + lng tin trong dn chng (C1). i k

ngi ta gi s dn chng khng gi tin C1 = 0, th C2 cn c k hiu tt l C6 M1 bao gm tin do NHTG to ra v lng tin mt nhn dn gi li trong tay tiu xi ch khng gi ht v ngn hng- Trng hp 1: Dn chng khng gi tin C1 = 0 th M1 cng chnh l tng s tin nhn dn k gi trong ti khon kh

k hn hay tin ngn hng trong lu thng (D)

- Trng hp 1: Dn chng gi tin mt C1 0 th M1 c tnh nh sau:


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d/ Cung ng tin hay tin mt php nh (monetary base supply)

Ngoi vic c th lm tng gim c s tin t thng qua nghip v th trng m v cho vay chit khNHTW c th trc tip tng gim c s tin t, tc l lm tng gim d tr v cung ng tin, bng cnghip v trn th trng ngoi t v nghip v cho vay vi chnh ph. Nh l:

- Khi NHTW tung tin mt ra mua ngoai t trn th trng ngoi t, n lm tng ngay c s tin nng t gi ln cao (ngha l ph gi ng ni t). Cung ng tin tng th lp tc b bnh trng

- Hay, khi NHTW em bn ngoi t, n tht cht c s tin t, gim nhanh cung ng tin, h t gxung thp hn (ngha l tng ng tin ni t)

Khi NHTW thc hin nghip v vi Chnh ph, n cng lm thay i c s tin t. Vo nhng lc m ngsch chnh ph (budget deficit), nhu cu vay mn ca khu vc cng (Public sector borrowinrequirements) PSBR pht sinh, NHTW thng phi cho chnh ph vay tin. Lng tin n cho vay ltng c s tin t v tng cung ng tin trong nn kinh t thng qua vic chi tiu ca Chnh ph.

n lc Ngn sch thng d, NHTW i n v chnh ph tr n. Mt lng ln tin mt ca chnh ph (dnhn dn np thu) c NHTW rt v. C s tin t gim v cung ng tin t trong lu thng gim

e/ Kim sot tn dng (selective credit controls):

Bng vic theo di cc hng mc ti sn khc nhau ca h thng NHTG, NHTW gin tip thay i llng cp pht tn dng tiu dng, u t t ngn hn sang trung hn hoc ngc li. T , n gin tiiu tit cung ng tn dng. Chng hn, thay i t l tng trng tn dng, kim sot cc khon vay ln cNHTG,

5. V chnh sch li sut ca ngn hng trung ng Vit Nam (SBV)

5.1 Gii thiu v Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

Nm 1951, nh du bng vic Ch tch H Ch Minh k Sc lnh s 15/SL thnh lp Ngn hng Quc gVit Nam vi cc nhim v ch yu l: Qun l vic pht hnh giy bc v t chc lu thng tin t, qul Kho bc nh nc, thc hin chnh sch tn dng pht trin sn xut, phi hp vi mu dch qun tin t v u tranh tin t vi ch. Sau , thng 01/1960, i tn thnh Ngn hng Nh nc Vit NamHin nay, Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam hot ng theo Lut ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam 46/2010/QH12 ngy 16 thng 06 nm 2010, c hiu lc thi hnh t ngy 01 thng 01 nm 2011.

Theo , Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (tn ting Anh l State Bank of Vietnam) l c quan ngang b c

Chnh ph, l Ngn hng trung ng ca nc Cng ho x hi ch ngha Vit Nam; Ngn hng Nh nl php nhn, c vn php nh thuc s hu nh nc, c tr s chnh ti Th H Ni;


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5.2 Vai tr v chc nng ca NHNN Vit Nam:

Nhim v:

- Hot ng ca Ngn hng Nh nc nhm n nh gi tr ng tin; bo m an ton hot ngn hng v h thng cc t chc tn dng; bo m s an to n, hiu qu ca h thng thanh to

quc gia; gp phn thc y pht trin kinh t - x hi theo nh hng x hi ch ngha

- Xy dng ch tiu lm pht hng nm Chnh ph trnh Quc hi quyt nh v t chc thc hin

- T chc h thng thng k, d bo v tin t v ngn hng; cng khai thng tin v tin t v nghng theo quy nh ca php lut

- T chc in, c, bo qun, vn chuyn tin giy, tin kim loi; thc hin nghip v pht hnh, thi, thay th v tiu hu tin giy, tin kim loi.

- Cp, sa i, b sung, thu hi giy php thnh lp v hot ng ca t chc tn dng

- V mt s chc nng, nhim v khc c quy nh chi tit trong iu 4. Nhim v, quyn hn cNgn hng Nh nc ti Lut Ngn hng Nh nc s 46/2010/QH12 ngy 16/06/2010

S t chc Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam


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Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Na

Hot ng ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

o Thc hin chnh sch tin t Quc gia:

Thng c Ngn hng quyt nh vic s dng cng c thc hin chnh sch tin t quc gia, bao gm tcp vn, li sut, t gi hi oi, d tr bt buc, nghip v th trng m v cc cng c, bin php khtheo quy nh ca Chnh ph.

o Pht hnh tin giy, tin kim loi:

Ngn hng Nh nc l c quan duy nht pht hnh tin giy, tin kim loi ca nc Cng ho x hi cngha Vit Nam

o Cho vay, bo lnh v tm ng cho Ngn sch:

Ngn hng Nh nc xem xt, quyt nh cho vay c bit i vi t chc tn dng trong cc trng h

sau y:

- T chc tn dng lm vo tnh trng mt kh nng chi tr, e do s n nh ca h thng cc chc tn dng;

- T chc tn dng c nguy c mt kh nng chi tr do s c nghim trng khc.

- Khng bo lnh cho t chc, c nhn vay vn, tr trng hp bo lnh cho t chc tn dng vay vnc ngoi theo quyt nh ca Th tng Chnh ph.

- Ngn hng Nh nc tm ng cho ngn sch trung ng x l thiu ht tm thi qu ngn s

nh nc theo quyt nh ca Th tng Chnh ph. Khon tm ng ny phi c hon tr tronm ngn sch, tr trng hp c bit do U ban thng v Quc hi quyt nh

o Hot ng thanh ton v k qu:

Ngn hng Nh nc t chc, qun l, vn hnh, gim st h thng thanh ton quc gia, lm i l cho Khbc Nh nc trong vic t chc u thu, pht hnh, lu k v thanh ton tn phiu kho bc, tri phiu khbc

o Qun l ngoi hi v hot ng ngoi hi:

- Ngn hng Nh nc t chc qun l ngoi hi v s dng ngoi hi trn lnh th Vit Nam;

- Cp, thu hi giy php hot ng ngoi hi cho t chc tn dng, cc t chc khc c hot ng ngohi;

- Trnh Th tng Chnh ph quyt nh bin php hn ch giao dch ngoi hi bo m an ninh tchnh, tin t quc gia;

- T chc, qun l, tham gia th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng.


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o Hot ng thng tin, bo co:

Ngn hng nh nc tin hnh thu thp ly d liu xy dng Bng cn i tin t, xy dng cn cthanh ton ca Vit Nam v nh gi, d bo xu hng ph t trin ca th trng tin t nhm phc v vixy dng v iu hnh chnh sch tin t quc gia, cng tc qun l ngoi hi.,

Trong rt nhiu cc bin php m NHTW, Vit Nam gi l Ngn hng nh nc (gi tt l NHNN) d iu hnh chnh sch tin t, th cng c li sut c s dng nhiu nht. Trong phn nghin cu tilun ny, nhm s tp trung su hn vo cng c iu hnh chnh sch ca NHNN Vit nam l li sut.

Phn tip theo chng ta s tm hiu nhng khi nim s lc v li sut

5.3 L lun chung v li sut

5.3.1 Khi nim v phn loi li sut

Li sut (Interest Rate) l t l % gia tin li (hay chi ph phi tr) trn mt s lng tin nht nh c c quyn s hu v quyn s dng tin y trong khong thi gian tha thun

Hay l khong chnh lch gia lng tin c nhn hm nay v lng tin tng cng phi tr trontng lai, chnh l tin li hay chi ph c quyn s hu lng tin y trong khong thi gian t ngnhn n ngy tr

John Maynard Keynes7lp lun rng li sut l mt hin tng tin t phn nh mi quan h gia cung v cu tin. Cung tin c xc nh mt cch ngoi sinh, cu tin phn nh cc nhu cu u c, phng nga v gidch v tin.

5.3.2 Cc loi li sut thng gp

- Li sut cbn: l li sut gc cc t chc tn dng cn c vo hoc tham chiu m hnh thli sut kinh doanh ca mnh. Vit Nam, li sut c bn do NHNN quy nh

- Li sut chit khu: p dng khi ngn hng cho khch hng vay di hnh thc chit khu thphiu hoc cc giy t c gi khc cha n hn thanh ton ca khch hng. N c tnh bng t phn trm trn mnh gi ca giy t c gi

- Li sut ti chit khu: p dng khi NHTW ti cp vn cho cc ngn hng di hnh thc chit khli cc thng phiu hay cc giy t c gi ngn hn cha n hn thanh ton cho cc ngn hng . Nc tnh bng t l % trn mnh gi ca giy t c gi v cng c khu tr ngay khi NHTW cvn tin vay cho NHTM

- Li sut ti cp vn: ti cp vn l hnh thc ngn hng Nh nc cp tn dng c bo m cho c

ngn hng nhm cung ng vn ngn hn. Nh vy li sut ti cp vn l li sut c s dng trontrng hp NHNN ti cp vn cho cc ngn hng

- Li sut lin ngn hng: L li sut cho vay ln nhau gia cc ngn hng c hnh thnh trn ttrng tin t.

7 John Maynard Keynes (1883 1946) l mt nh kinh t hc ngi Anh. Nhng tng ca ng, hnh thnh nn Kinh t hcKeynes, c nh hng ln ti kinh t hc hin i v chnh tr cng nh cc chnh sch ti chnh ca nhiu chnh ph


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- Li sut danh ngha: l li sut tnh theo gi tr danh ngha ca tin t hay ni cch khc l loi li sucha loi tr i t l lm pht

- Li sut thc: l li sut iu chnh li cho ng theo nhng thay i v lm pht, hay ni cch khl loi li sut loi tr i t l lm pht

Li sut thc = Li sut danh ngha T l lm pht (d kin)

5.3.3 Cch thc qun l li sut

a/ C nh li sut:

L li sut c n nh mt mc c th trn Hp ng, khng chu tc ng ca nhng bin ng li suth trng. Li sut ny s khng thay i trong sut thi gian vay vn ti Ngn hng. Thng thng dng trong cho vay ngn hn

u im:

- D tnh c chnh xc s tin li phi thanh ton cho Ngn hng trong sut thi gian vay, t

to thun li trong vic hoch nh ti chnh cng nh cn i ngun cho chnh khch hng

- Khng b tc ng ca bin ng li sut trn th trng

Nhc im:

- Trong trng hp li sut bin ng gim so vi thi im khch hng vay vn th khch hvn phi thanh ton li cho Ngn hng theo li sut c (c nh trong hp ng), cao hn li suhin ti ca th trng.

b/ Li sut th ni:

L li sut c iu chnh theo tng thi k, bin i theo thi gian. Mc iu chnh v k iu chnh sut s theo tha thun gia khch hng v ngn hng (khng tri vi Php lut) v c quy nh r trHp ng. Thng thng p dng cho vay trung v di hn.

Trong li sut th ni c 02 loi:

- Li sut th ni hon ton th li sut c xc nh hon ton da trn cung cu ca th trng mkhng h c s can thip no ca nh nc.

- Li sut th ni c s iu chnh ca nh nc th li sut vn c xc nh da trn quy lut cucu nhng vn c s iu chnh ca nh nc. y cng l hnh thc li sut m nc ta ang

dng u im:

- p dng li sut th ni s ph hp hn trong iu kin nn kinh t th trng c nhiu bing

- Trong trng hp li sut th trng bin ng gim th s tin li khch hng thanh ton chNgn hng trong k iu chnh s thp hn


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Nhc im:

- Khch hng ch c th d tnh c chnh xc s tin li phi thanh ton cho Ngn hng trong u tin, bt u k th 2 tr i li sut thay i theo th trng v vy khch hng s kh khtrong vic ch ng v mt ti chnh.

- Trng hp li sut th trng bin ng tng so vi thi im vay th s tin li khch hphi thanh ton cho Ngn hng nhiu hn (v phi chu iu chnh mc li sut cao hn)

5.3.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n li sut

a/ Thi gian o hn:

Mi khon vay khc nhau thi gian o hn s dn n nhng mc li sut p dng cho n khc nhau. Ththng, ngi ta phn li sut thnh 02 loi

- Li sut ngn hn (short term interest rate): C thi gian di 1 nm.

- Li sut trung - di hn (long-term interest rate): C thi gian di hn 01 nm.b/ Kh nng thanh khon:

Kh nng thanh khon ch v mc nhanh hay chm ca vic chuyn mt ti sn tr li thnh tin nhanh hchm m ch mt cht t hoc khng mt chi ph no c. y l nhn t th 2 nh hng n li sut. Vnhng ti sn c thanh khon cao, li sut ca n thng thp n rt thp. Ngc li, nhng ti sn thankhon km thng c li sut cao hn v chi ph chuyn i ca n cng cao, v cng v vi thi gian ds n nh ca ti sn s to ra li nhun cao

c/ Ri ro:

Ngoi kh nng thanh khon (Liquidity), ri ro (Risk) cng l nhn t lm tng hoc gim li sut ti sn ca nghng v nn kinh t. Nhn t ny hnh thnh loi chi ph ri ro m ngn hng v cc nh u t khc phi tnh cho cc trng hp vn u t b mt gi, vn khng thu hi c v ni nhn u t b ph sn, v n, li tc tnn m v gi c tng nhanh

d/ Chi ph qun l ti sn:

Ngn hng c rt nhiu loi ti sn c d qun l v d thu hi vn nh tin mt, cho vay d tr, hng ha bn, hay cc khon cho vay hoc u t ngn hn khc. Nhng cng c rt nhiu loi ti sn kh qun l, thdi. Vi cc loi ti sn ny s tn km chi ph qun tr hn, cc ngn hng phi tnh thm chi ph qun l sn vo li sut v iu ng nhin l li sut p dng cho nhng loi ti sn ny cng s cao hn.

e/ Lm pht:

Lm pht l k th ca li sut. Lm pht lm gim gi tr tin chng ta nhn c. Trong phn chng quan tm thm n li sut thc v li sut danh ngha. Theo

- Li sut danh ngha (Nominal Interest Rate) hay NIR l li sut ca ti sn trn n v tin t


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- Li sut thc li sut thc (Real Interest Rate) hay RIR, ch ra gi tr thc s c tng ln (hgi tr thc s thu c) t mt hot ng u t

- Gi l t l % ca lm pht trong cng thi gian hot ng u t, th RIR v NIR c dinbng cng thc sau

f/ Cung tin t:

Cung cu tin t l tng th tin t c s dng giao dch thanh ton trn th trng.Thng qua cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t m nh nc thc hin chnh sch tht cht tin t hay nlng tin t.

- chnh sch tht cht tin t m mc ch chnh ca n l lm cho cung tin t gim dn n khhim tin, vic vay mn kh khn hn lm li sut tng ln.

- V ngc li chnh sch ni lng tin t thng p dng kch thch tng trng kinh t, tlng cung tin bm vo nn kinh t tng ln nht l trong tnh trng suy thoi kinh t, dn n vitip cn ngun tin d hn, chi ph vay vn r hn, li sut gim

Trn y l nhng c s l thuyt lin quan n hot ng ca NHTW hay NHNN, v li sut. hiu hn biu hin hay cch thc m NHNN Vit Nam p dng trong thi gian qua, chng ta s cng bc vChng 2 Thc t iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam hiu r hn c ch vhnh cc cng c ca th trng tin t, c bit l cng c li sut


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CHNG II

THC T IU HNH LI SUT CA NGN HNG NH NC VIT NAM (SBV)

1. Tm lc din bin chnh ca vic iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng Nh nc qua tng thi k

Ty tng giai on c im ca tng thi k m NHNN a ra cch thc iu hnh chnh sch khc nhauTheo , qua tm hiu v tng kt nhm xin a ra cc giai on chnh ca c ch iu hnh chnh sch lisut ca NHNN nh sau

1.1 C ch thc thi chnh sch li sut c nh8 (Giai on t 1986 n thng 5/1992)

y c coi l giai on khc nghit nht ca khng ch ngnh ngn hng m cn c ngnh kinh t, vnhng nm u 1986 1988, lm pht mc 03 con s (nm 1986 l 774,7%; nm 1987 l 323,1%, n1988 l 393%). Vo giai on ny c th ni khng hong trm trng nn kinh t, ngi nng dn, cnnhn cng sn xut cng l, ngi ta cn c cu ca ming l Bn tru tu g, ngha l ai bn 01 cotru i, ri em gi tit kim, nm sau rt ra c gc v li ch 01 con g.

Nm 1989, Vit Nam khng nhng nh du bng vic b ch tem phiu lng thc, m ln u tin sxut c 24,4 triu tn thc v xut khu c 1,4 triu tn go - ng th 3 trn th gii sau Thi Lan M. V cng l nm nh du thng du th th 1 triu t M Bch H ti Qun o Trng Sa. Tuy nhinng lc t chc sn xut yu km, km vi kiu chy theo phong tro v sn xut bt c gi no kinh t vo suy thoi, nn tha, tn kho cc ln, ngi nng dn v cng nhn tht nghip, V cln u tin cm t lm pht c s dng trong cc phn tch kinh t v m Vit Nam

Ngoi ra, giai on ny nh du bng vic gi tr ng ni t mt gi trm trng, nu nh nm 1985 gi VND/USD l 15/1USD th sang nm 1986 l 180/USD; 1987 l 550/USD; 1988 l 950 /USD

1989: 4.500/USD; 1990: 7.500/USD!Ngy 26/03/1988, Ngh nh 53/HBT ca Hi ng B trng v t chc, b my Ngn hng Nh nVit Nam cng ra i nh du bc chuyn bin u tin ca ngnh Ngn hng. Tuy nhin, thi ny, vn iu l bnh qun mi NHTM Nh nc hi ch mc 200 t ng (tng ng 44,5 triUSD theo t gi bnh qun nm 1989: 4.500/USD), cc ngn hng c t chc thnh 02 cp: cp qun nh nc do NHNN m nhim v cp hch ton kinh doanh do cc ngn hng chuyn doanh m nhidi s ch huy thng nht ca Tng Gim c NHNN. Lng vn khng cung cho nn kinh t, d nvn lu ng ca h thng Ngn hng chuyn doanh ca Nh nc cp cho cc n v kinh t quc doantng rt mnh: Cui nm 1987 con s ny l 400 t ng tng gp 3,6 ln so vi cui nm 1986; nm 19

l 1.718 t ng, gp 4,3 ln so vi cui nm 1987. Tnh trng n n hn tr ngy cng tng cao trong kcc khon phi thu hu nh khng thu hi c v ng hn, lm cho cc Ngn hng, HTX tn dng QTD ng trn b vc thm v mt kh nng thanh ton.

8 Tham kho Bi vit Ngn hng Vit Nam giai on 1986 - 1990: Trang s khc nghit ca TS. Nguyn i Lai - Tp chkinh t v d bo (2009)


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Trc tnh th , mt liu php sc ca NHNN Vit Nam c xut u nm 1989 bng cch ngt tng li sut huy ng ln n 10% v 12%/thng (144%/nm), ng thi cho php m rng nhp khhng ho, kinh doanh vng. Kt qu l ch trong vng 2 n 3 thng u nm 1989 s d huy ng tit ki dng cao hn doanh s tit kim lu k trong 10 nm trc ; gi vng v gi USD gim ln lt 43v 30% so vi thng 1/1989; lm pht gim r rt

Vi mc tiu kim ch lm pht, chng suy thoi kinh t nn giai on ny cn c gi l giai on c ciu hnh li sut c nh. Giai php ca NHNN giai on ny cng li mt tiu cc, Kinh doanh cNgn hng tr thnh vng lun qun: Huy ng tit kim mi tr n khon phi tr c vi l i sut bhoc cao hn. Ngn hng tr nn thua l hn bao gi ht vo cui 1990 v c nm 1991. L do n gin ngi vay khng th to li nhun tr li qu cao cho ngn hng. Tng tht thot ln ti hn 2.000 ng, tng ng vi gn 0,5 t USD = 4,2% GDP ca Vit Nam nm 1989 v ko di vic x l cho mt s nm tip theo.

Di y l bng li sut tn dng giai on 1989 1990

Vi chnh sch thc cht li sut m li sut dn c iu chnh ph hp vi iu kin kinh t x hi chn ngc siu lm pht vo nm 1989 vi mc lm pht 35%.

n nm 1991, c ch thc thi li sut c nh bc l r nt nhng hn ch can, lm tng tnh ca cc doanh nghip Nh nc, khng khuyn khch h lm n chiu qu, l th c Nh nc chu.

1.2 C ch iu hnh khung li sut (Giai on t thng 06/1992 n nm 1995)

c trng ca c ch ny l NHNN iu hnh c ch li sut theo khung li sut,quy nh r sn li sutin gi v trn li sut cho vay i vi nn kinh t. Cc ngnhng thng mi, cc t chc tn dng cn khung li sut ca ngn hng thng mi a ra cc li sut thch hp cho mnh. Thi k ny, li sut c


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vay bnh qun > li sut tin gi bnh qun > t l lm pht. Hay ni cch khc l NHNN mun duy tr lsut thc dng trong giai on ny.

ng thi khng c s phn bit gia cc thnh phn kinh t, mi doanh nghip u bnh ng, do vy mphn hn ch c s tr tr ca nn kinh t, c im ca khu vc kinh t Nh nc.

Din bin li sut giai on ny c th hin nh sau:

Bng din bin li sut bnh qun t nm 1985 n 1995

Tuy nhin, vic khng ch cht ch mc trn li sut cho vay mc thp khuyn khch vic vay mtrn th trng t do cng nh nhng tiu cc trong c chcho vay ca ngn hng. Li sut tin gi lin ttng, li sut cho vay b khng ch trn khin cho li nhun ca ngn hng gim, kh nng ti chnh yu trong khi nn kinh tang trn tng trng vi nhng nhu cu v vn rt ln. C th thy, c ch nkhng cn ph hp

1.3 C ch iu hnh li sut trn (Giai on t nm 1996 n thng 07/2000)

Vi mc tiu t do ha li sut huy ng v linh hot hn trong trn li sut cho vay. M NHNN p dmc trn li sut cho vay, hay bin li sut ti a c cho vay. ng thi, mc li sut ti cp vn iu chnh linh hot hn, ph hp vi ch s lm pht, quan h cung cu vn trn th trng.

Giai on 1996 1997, NHNN p mc li sut cho vay ti a l 0,35%/thng so vi li tin gi. Quy ny to s mt cng bng gia cc Ngn hng bi l cch thc huy ng v chi ph huy ng vn ca cngn hng khc nhau. Nn quy nh ny ti 1997 th b bi b. Sang u nm 1998, vi quyt n39/1998/Q-NHNN, cho php trn li sut cho vay tng thm 1%/thng ln mc mi l 1,2%/thng, cvay trung di hn t mc 1,1%/thng ln mc 1,25%/thng.

Sang nm 1999, nn kinh t c du hiu thiu pht, nhm kch thch tng trng kinh t, kch cu, NHN lin tc iu chnh gim li sut, li sut cui nm gim 0,35% - 4% so vi u nm.

- Cho vay khu vc thnh th : 0,85% /thng

- Cho vay khu vc nng thn : 1%/thng

V cng trong nm 1999, thng 11/1999, nghip v chit khu v ti chit khu giy t c gi b sung vocc cng c iu hnh li sut. n 7/2000, NHNN a vo s dng nghip v th trng m


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vi li sut c hnh thnh qua cc phin giao dch theo quan h cung cu. C ch li sut ny gphn duy tr s tng trng kinh t, kim sot lm pht, n nh sc mua ca VND

Trong c ch ny, tn ti nhng bt cp sau:

- NHNN khng cho gim li sut i vi cc khon cho vay trc, dn n vic Ngi dn i vayngn hng khc vi li sut thp hn, p vo khon vay c li sut cao hn. Ri ro li sut lut gnh nng ln vai cc NHTM do mc chnh lch gia huy ng v cho vay l nh.

- Vic chnh ph ch nh cho vay khc phc hu qu thin tai vi mc li sut 0,5 /thng i vi chvay ngn hn, 0,6%/thng i vi trung v di hn. Lm cho NHTM quc doanh l, khng c khothu nhp, huy ng thp, ri ro tn dng khng ngun b p. Cc ngn hng khng cn hng hcho vay

- Trong giai on ny, cn xut hin hin tng nhiu ngn hng huy ng vnngn hn cho vay trung v di hn, ri ro thanh ton rt cao khi c dng tin rt ra

1.4 C ch iu hnh li sut c bn km bin (Giai on t nm 2000 n thng 05/2002)

Sang nm 2000, trc nhng bt cp trn, NHNN bt u s dng Li sut c bn9 (gi tt l LSCB) v

iu hnh li sut. Hng thng NHNN cng b LSCB cn c vo li sut cho vay thng mi tt nht c

mt nhm cc t chc tn dng chim phn ln th phn tn dng v mt bin thch hp lm cn c

cho vic n nh li sut cho vay ca cc t chc tn dng,trong trng hp cn thit, NHNN

cng b iu chnh kp thi. LSCB u tin c cng b vo ngy 30 thng 5 nm 2000.

Ngy 30/5/2002, NHNN ban hnh quyt nh s 546/2002/Q-NHNN v vic thc hin c ch li sut th

thun trong hot ng tn dng thng mi bng ng Vit Nam ca t chc tn dng i vi khch hnTheo , nhng khon vay c hoc chun b gii ngn th p dng theo li sut c, nhng khon vay mi

dng li sut c bn cng b ca NHNN lm tham kho mc li sut cho vay thng mi i vi kh

hng tt nht ca nhm cc t chc tn dng c la chn theo Quyt nh ca Thng c. Mc li su

cho vay khng c vt qu 150% li sut c bn.10

9 Li sut c bn l li sut do NHTW cng b lm c s cho cct chc tn dng n nh li sut kinh doanh10 Theo khon 2 iu 11 ca Quyt nh s 1627/2001/Q-NHNN ngy 31/12/2001


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Mc li sut trong thi k ny l:

Vi cch iu hnh ny gip cc t chc tn dng n nh li sut mt cc ph hp vi iu kin kindoanh v mc ri ro c th, ng thi NHNN kim sot c li sut cho vay. Nhng li sut c bny nh u cho cc loi hnh t chc tn dng (tr Qu tn dng nhn dn c s) hay c im th nh tnng thng. Ch khc nhau gia li sut ngn hn hay trung di hn.

C th thy chnh sch li sut thi k ny tin gn n cc nguyn tc li sut th trng hn, NHNNV quyt tm i mi chnh sch li sut theo hng t do ha v tng bc gn li sut trong nc vo ttrng khu vc v th gii.Vic s dng LSCB lm tham chiu khi cp tn dng ca cc t chc tn dnchnh l bc chun b cho t do ha li sut hon ton sau ny

1.5 C ch li sut tha thun (T giai on nm 2002 n thng 5/2008)

Mt quyt nh mang tnh bc ngot trong iu hnh li sut l Quyt nh 546 ca NHNN ng30/5/2002 (hiu lc 01/06/2002) th cc t chc tn dng xc nh li sut cho vay bng ng Vit Natrn c s cung cu vn th trng v mc tn nhim i vi khch hng vay. LSCB lc ny ch matnh tham kho v nh hng li sut th trng

Sang u nm 2003, c ch iu hnh li sut tip tc c iu chnh, theo li sut ti cp vn ng vtr l li sut trn, li sut ti chit khu l li sut sn trn th trng tin t lin ngn hng, li sut ttrng m l cng c iu hnh thng xuyn ca NHNN. Li sut cho vay qua m c p dng tronthanh ton in t lin ngn hng v thanh ton b tr, li sut tin gi ca cc t chc tn dng ti NHN

ng vai tr lm phng tin thng xuyn iu tit li sut lin ngn hng


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Vi quyt nh mang tnh lch s ny gip cc Ngn hng t ch hn trong hot ng ca mnh, nht trong vic huy ng, cho vay vn, li sut phn nh c cung cu th trng, khai thc trit tim nnsc mnh th trng,

Nhng vo thi , 04 Ngn hng :Ngn hng Ngoi thng Vit Nam - VCB, Ngn hng Nh ng bn

sng Cu Long -MHB, Ngn hng Cng thng Vit Nam - ICB v Ngn hng u t v Pht trin VNam BIDV chim 70% tng ti sn ca ton b h thng ngn hng, qun l khi lng ti sn khng chim tng ng 15 - 20% GDP, m khch hng chnh li l Doanh nghip nh nc. Nn v bn cht ch li sut tha thun vn cha mang tnh th trng, theo ng quy lut cung cu.

Nm 2007, nh du bng t l lm pht phi m, t mc 02 con s l 12,63%, gi c tng mt cch chmt. Mt chnh sch tin t, c NHNN a ra kim ch lm pht l Quyt nh s 187/2008/QNHNN, NHNN s m rng din cc loi tin gi phi d tr bt buc, bao gm cc loi tin g i khng hn v c k hn, thay cho vic p dng d tr bt buc i vi tin gi khng k hn v c k hn t thng tr xung trong thi gian qua. Tip l quyt nh s 346/Q-NHNN v vic pht hnh tn phi

Ngn hng Nh nc bng tin ng di hnh thc bt buc i vi cc t chc tn dng nhm thu h20.300 t ng.

H qu ca n l vic khan him tin t li bt u, chy a li sut bt u, mc li sut ny ln n 15%16%/nm cao hn kh nhiu so vi li sut ti cp vn ca NHNN (13%/nm) v li sut ti chit kh(11%/nm). Li sut huy ng lin tc tng dn n li sut cho vay cng tng theo t l thun khin hthng ti chnh ngn hng mt an ton, cc doanh nghip u phi cn nhc li c cu vn ca mnh cnnh cc d nh sn xut

u nm 2008, trong mt lot cc bin php kim ch lm pht, NHNN a ra Quyt nh 187/2008/Q-NHNN v vic tng t l d tr bt buc nhm rt bt tin t lu thng v, ch ng kisot tc tng tng phng tin thanh ton v tng trng d n tn dng ph hp vi cc mc tiu kinhv m. Sang thng 02/2008, Ngn hng Nh nc quy nh trn li sut huy ng l 12%/nm theo cin s 02/C-NHNN ngy 26/02/2008 nhm hn ch cuc ua ny. Ti thng 05/2008, NHNN ban hQuyt nh s 16/2008/Q-NHNN v c ch iu hnh li sut c bn bng ng Vit Nam, theo , cc chc tn dng n nh li sut kinh doanh (li sut huy ng v li sut cho vay) bng ng Vit Nakhng vt qu 150% ca li sut c bn do Ngn hng Nh nc cng b p dng trong tng thi k


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Din bin cc li sut ca NHNN t 2000 n 2012

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

Apr-00

Oct-00

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

Oct-05

Apr-06

Oct-06

Apr-07

Oct-07

Apr-08

Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

Oct-10

Apr-11

Oct-11

Ngun: Tng hp t NHNN

%

LS c bn (Y oY ) Li sut chit khu (Y oY ) Li sut ti cp vn (Y oY )

S dng thng k m t trong excel ta c kt qu sau:

LS cbn (YoY)Li sut chit

khu (YoY)Li sut ti cp

vn (YoY)

Li sut cho vaythc t trung bnh

(YoY)

Mean 8.412% 5.735% 7.543% 13.221%

Standard Error 0.001497656 0.002574992 0.002607044 0.00428098

Median 8.250% 4.800% 6.500% 13.009%

Mode 8.250% 4.500% 6.500% 13.500%Standard Deviation 0.015346404 0.026385814 0.026714249 0.02839681

Sample Variance 0.000235512 0.000696211 0.000713651 0.000806379

Kurtosis 6.018637356 2.140705173 1.926984313 -0.351561098

Skewness 2.448476686 1.737897157 1.650766643 0.384715658

Range 0.07 0.1 0.102 0.110581071

Minimum 0.07 0.03 0.048 0.0830625

Maximum 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.193643571

Sum 8.8328 6.022 7.92 5.81702315

Count 105 105 105 44

T bng trn trong giai on ny li sut c bn trung bnh 8.412%, li sut chit khu l 5.735%, li suti cp vn l 7.543%, li sut thc t11 l 13.221%. T thng 11/2001 n thng 11/2010, Thng NHNN Vit Nam thay i

11 D liu li sut thc t trung bnh, tng hp t 10 ngn hng khc nhau vi 38 hp ng tn dng khc nhau t nm 2008 nnm 2012.


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- Li sut c bn nhiu ln gm cc mc ni bt l: 7,8%/nm (01/05/2001); 8,25%/n(01/12/2005); 8,75%/nm (01/02/2008); 12%/nm (19/05/2008); 14%/nm (01/10/2008); 13%/n(21/10/2008); 12%/nm (05/11/2008); 11%/nm (21/11/2008); 10%/nm (05/12/2008); 8,5%/n(22/12/2008), 7%/nm (01/02/2009), 8%/nm (01/12/2009) v 9%/nm (05/11/2010).

- Li sut ti chit khu t 13% (10/10/2011) 11% (05/11/2008) 12% (21/10/2008) 10(21/11/2008) 7,5% (22/12/2008) 6%/nm (01/03/2008)

Bng so snh cc lai li sut so vi vi li sut trung bnh thc t p dng cho doanh nghip

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

Apr-00

A

ug-00

D

ec-00

Apr-01

A

ug-01

D

ec-01

Apr-02

A

ug-02

D

ec-02

Apr-03

A

ug-03

D

ec-03

Apr-04

A

ug-04

D

ec-04

Apr-05

A

ug-05

D

ec-05

Apr-06

A

ug-06

D

ec-06

Apr-07

A

ug-07

D

ec-07

Apr-08

A

ug-08

D

ec-08

Apr-09

A

ug-09

D

ec-09

Apr-10

A

ug-10

D

ec-10

Apr-11

A

ug-11

D

ec-11

Ngun: Tng hp t NHNN v tng hp t nhiu ngun

%

LS c bn (YoY)Li sut chit khu (YoY)

Li sut ti cp vn (YoY)

Li sut cho vay thc t trung bnh (YoY)

Nm 2010, nh du bng thng t s 13/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 20/5/2010 ca Thng c Ngn hng Nnc quy nh v cc t l bo m an ton trong hot ng ca t chc tn dng, v thng t 19/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 27/09/2010 v sa i mt s iu ca thng t 13/2010/TT-NHNN ng20/5/2010. C th ni y l 02 thng t quan trng nht v nh hng rt ln n th trng ti chnTrong thng t 13 v 19 ny c cc im chnh sau:

- Nng h s an ton vn CAR t 8% ln 9%

- T l cp hn mc tn dng khng c vt qu 80% (i vi ngn hng) v 85% (i vi t chtn dng phi ngn hng) tnh trn ngun vn huy ng c.12

12 Khon 2 iu 18 (sa i) ti thng t 19/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 27/09/2010


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- T l cho vay khng vt qu 80% vn huy ng (ng ch vn huy ng theo quy nh mi ns khng cn bao gm: Vn tin gi khng k hn ca t chc, vn t c ca NHTM, vn u ca t chc)

- Huy ng trn th trng 213 ti a 20% s vn huy ng th trng 114

C nhiu quan im tri chiu nhau v tc ng ca hai thng t ny ln mt bng li sut v lm pht, quan im kim ch c lm pht, ngn chn ri ro mt thanh khon ca h thng, ng n trong giai dhn v cng c quan im cho rng n lm cn tr bc gim li sut ca cc NHTM, v n lm cho vihuy ng vn v cho vay tr nn kh khn hn, Vi thi im hiu lc l 1/10/2010, bt u qu cucng ca nm, v l do an ton hoc lm p bng cn i, s c mt ln sng cc ngn hng n lc tvn v bn chng khon (gim ti sn ri ro tng tin mt).

Kt thc nm 2010, kinh t v m bc l nhiu bt n, vi t l lm pht ln ti 11,75%, khc phtnh trng ny, ti hi ngh ca Chnh ph vi cc a phng, din ra ngy 30 31/12/2011. Chnh ph pht i thng ip dn sc n nh kinh t v m trong nm 2011. Theo 03 gii php chnh l: Tht ch

chnh sch tin t, kim ch lm pht khng qu 7%, Khng ch nhp siu di 20%. Kt qu ca thnip ny c th hin rt r nt qua cc vn bn.

- Thng t 02/2011/TT-NHNN ngy 3/3/2011 theo li sut huy ng vn bng ng Vit Nam (sut tin gi; li sut chng ch tin gi, k phiu, tn phiu v tri phiu) khng vt qu 14%/nmring cc Qu Tn dng nhn dn c s khng vt qu 14,5%/nm

- Thng t s 30/2011/TT-NHNN ngy 28/9/2011 quy nh li sut ti a i vi tin gi bng nVit Nam ca t chc, c nhn ti TCTD, chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi, theo

o Li sut ti a p dng i vi tin gi khng k hn v c k hn di 1 thng l 6%/nm

o Li sut ti a p dng i vi tin gi c k hn t 1 thng tr ln l 14%/nm, ring Qtn dng nhn dn c s n nh mc li sut ti a i vi tin gi k hn 1 thng tr ln14,5%.

- Ngh quyt s 01/NQ-CP ngy 03/01/2012 ca Chnh ph v nhng gii php ch yu ch o ihnh thc hin k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi v d ton ngn sch Nh nc nm 2012 vmc tiu tip tc tp trung kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t v m; tp trung thc hin cc nhiv trng tm ti c cu nn kinh t, i mi m hnh tng trng theo hng nng cao hiu qu.

Vi nhng quy nh trn, p lc thanh khon khin cho li sut giai on ny vo cc im, cuc ch

ua li sut huy ng, trn li sut 14%, cc ngn hng t trong p lc thanh khon cao, li sut huy vt trn 14%, xut hin tnh trng huy ng ngm, huy ng vi li sut ngoi ti cc Ngn hng. Li sucho vay tng cao, nh im c ni 25%-26%/nm. Quy nh v li sut cho vay trn khng vt qu 150

13 Th trng 2 l th trng lin ngn hng, tc l gia cc NHTM vi nhau14 Th trng 1 l th trng din ra hot ng huy ng v cho vay gia cc NHTM v ngi dn. Vic cho vay hay i vay trng lin ngn hng thng l do hi s NHTM thc hin, cn cc chi nhnh th ch lm nhim v huy ng v cho vay cngi dn


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li sut huy ng ti khon 2 iu 11 ca Quyt nh s 1627/2001/Q-NHNN ngy 31/12/2001, v ludn s 2005 dng nh b cc ngn hng lm l, ngn hng nh nc cng khng ch ti mnh, li suvay tr thnh li sut t tha thun gia Ngn hng v khch hng.

Vi vic ban hnh cc thng t, ngh quyt trn v cc ch th i km mt mt gp phn tt trong vi

kim ch lm pht, nhng tng trng tn dng gim ng k, t trng tn dng phi sn xut (bt ng schng khon, tiu dng) khng ch mc 16% theo Ngh quyt s 11/NQ-CP ngy 24 thng 2 nm 20v Ch th 01/CT-NHNN ngy 01 thng 03 nm 2011 ca Thng c NHNN.

Di y l bng tng trng tn dng ca mt s nhm ngnh.

Nm 2012, vi ngh quyt s 01/NQ-CP ngy 03/01/2012 ca Chnh ph v ch trng ti cu trc ngNgn hng, thng c Ngn hng ban hnh ch th s 01/CT-NHNN ngy 13/02/2012 v t chc thhin chnh sch tin t v m bo hot ng ngn hng an ton, hiu qu nm 2012, trong giao ch titng trng tn dng nm 2012 cho 04 nhm t chc tn dng:

- Nhm 1, tng trng ti a 17%



- Nhm 4, khng c tng trng

- Trong , cc lnh vc khng khuyn khch th tng d n cho vay ti a l 16% trong tng d ncho vay ca t chc tn dng trong sut c nm 2012, lnh vc gm

o Vay u t kinh doanh chng khon

o Cho vay tiu dng, tr cho vay i vi nhu cu vn xy dng, sa cha nh v mua nbng lng, tin cng

o u t, kinh doanh bt ng sn tr xy dng nh bn, cho thu cho ngi thu nhp thcng nhn ti khu cng nghip, khu ch xut


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o Nu t chc no vi phm th p dng t l d tr bt buc gp 02 ln so vi t l d tr bbuc vi tin gi VND v cc bin php khc

Vi ch th v quy nh ny s m ra p lc ln n lm pht, li sut, hot ng ca Ngn hng, chng ta tm hiu thm sau ny.

2. Nghin cu nh lng tc ng ca li sut ln cc kha cnh ca cc yu t v m v nn kinh nc ta:

2.1 Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht

a/ Tng quan kinh t v m nm 2011

Lm pht gim tc nhanh trong Q4.2011:

CPI gim tc nhanh trong qu 4, a lm pht tnh theo nm gim mnh t mc nh 23.02% tronthng 08/2011 xung cn 18.13% vo cui thng 12/2011.

Mc d con s ny vn vt xa mc tiu 7-8% Chnh ph t ra u nm v gn st vi mc iu chndi 18% ca Chnh ph, tuy nhin cng thng v lm pht phn no c gim bt, th hin qCPI theo thng t thng 8 n cui nm u mc di 1%.

0%

5%10%

15%

20%

25%

01/ 11 03/ 11 05/ 11 07/ 11 09/ 11 11/ 11

CPI 2011

Cnc H Ni HCM

Ngun: TngccThngk

Li sut :

Li sut huy ng hu ht cc ngn hng n nh mc trn 14% trong nhng thng cui nm.

Cng vi s gim tc trong lm pht, cc ngn hng c c s h li sut cho vay xung mc thhn nhm h tr cc doanh nghip trong nc. Theo , mc li sut cho vay ngn hn bnh qunhng thng cui nm mc khong 20%. Tuy vy, vic tip cn vi ngun vn vay vn kh khkhn bi d n tn dng mc 12-13% vo cui nm c Nh nc cho l hp l


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Ngun: Ngn hngNhnc

5

10

15

20

25

01/ 11 03/ 11 05/ 11 07/ 11 09/ 11 11/ 11

Li sut 2011

LS huy ng bnh qun VN

LS cho vay ngn hn bnh qun VN

T gi:

Tri ngc vi xu hng t gi tng mnh vo cc thng cui nm do nhu cu nhp khu gia tng, gi lin ngn hng v t gi nim yt ca ngn hng li ch tng nh vo u thng 10 v sau nh trong sut qu 4, c bit t gi trn th trng ch en li gim dn v tng i n nh thst t gi nim yt ca NHTM.

n cui thng 12/2011, t gi trn th trng t do dao ng quanh mc 21,220 ng i lyUSD.

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000T gi USD/VN

T gi Lin Ngn hng Tgi NHTM

T gi th trng t doNgun: Reuters


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Tng trng kinh t:

2011 l mt nm nn kinh t trong v ngoi nc vn i din vi rt nhiu kh khn.

iu ny th hin phn no qua k vng tng trng GDP ca Chnh ph vi con s mc tiu ngy cgim, t mc 6-6.5% u nm gim xung cn 6% vo gia nm v n 31/12/2011, GDP thc t

nc ch tng trng 5.89% so vi cng k nm trc. y l mc thp nht k t nm khng hong tchnh ton cu 2008 n nay.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

VND bil l%

Real GDP GDP YoY

Ngun: TngccThngk

b/ Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht

Cc bin kinh t v m c s tng tc vi nhau, theo mi lin h sau.

Lmpht

u tncngoi

D trngoi hi

Cncnthng

mi

Li sut


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Trong mi lin h ny ngi ta thng nhc n yu t lm pht (CPI) v li sut m ni cm l li sut hng

Vn nghin cu:

- Liu chng c mi quan h tuyn tnh gia li sut v lm pht khng? S thay i li sut huy nc gii thch bng bao nhiu % lm pht? C m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh no gia 02 bin nkhng?

Cc bin s nghin cu sau

o CPI: % lm pht (Consumer Price Index)

o IR: % li sut huy ng (Interest rate)

Cch ly d liu s cp:

- IR tnh bng %chnh lch cng k gia li sut huy ng ca tng thng (thng ny so vi thtrc), d liu ly t 30/04/2007 n 23/02/2012 a vo hnh v, d liu a vo eview 30/04/2008 ti 23/02/2012

- CPI tnh theo nm, d liu ly t 31/01/2001 nm 23/02/2012 a vo hnh v, d liu a veview t 30/04/2008 ti 23/02/2012

Phn mm p dng: Eview 4.1 chy m hnh

Bng biu din li sut v lm pht giai on t 31/01/2001 n 23/02/2012 nh sau:


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Bng so snh CPI v Li sut huy ng

Bin ng li sut huy ng v CPI

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

CPI YoY % Deposit Y oY

T nm 2007 n nay, li sut huy ng (IR) t nh theo tng nm ln lt l 8.50% (30/08/2007),18.00% (30/06/2008), 10.49% (30/12/2009), 15.00% (30/12/2010), 14%(28/01/2011) v 14% (30/01/2012Cn lm pht (CPI) t nh ln lt l 12.63% (28/12/2007), 28.32% (30/01/2008), 17.48% (30/01/2009)11.75% (30/12/2010), 23.02% (30/08/2011) v 17,27% (30/01/2012).

28/01/11, 14.00% 30/01/12, 14.00%

30/01/08, 28.32%

30/01/09, 17.48%

30/12/10, 11.75%

30/01/12, 17.27%30/12/10, 15.00%

30/12/09, 10.49%

30/08/07, 8.50%

30/06/08, 18.00%

30/08/11, 23.02%

28/12/07, 12.63%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

28/04/07 14/11/07 01/06/08 18/12/08 06/07/09 22/01/10 10/08/10 26/02/11 14/09/11 01/04/12 18/10/12

IR max CPI max

Cc mc thi gian t max ca IR v CPI t nm 2007 n 2012

Xt trong nm 2007 n 2012, th trung bnh IR t max trc CPI trong 2 thng. Ngha l tr ca CPIsau IR l 2 thng. Vi mong mun a CPI phn nh tt vi IR, chng ta chy m hnh hi quy bng eviewvi CPI tr hn IR 02 thng (lm pht tr so vi li sut l 2 thng)


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Bng bin ng gia % thay i li sut huy ng v CPI hng k

Bin ng gia thay i li sut huy ng v CPI

-100.00%

-50.00%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Jan-05

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Jan-07

Jul-07

Jan-08

Jul-08

Jan-09

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

CPI YoY % Deposit YoY

S bin ng gia CPI v % thay i li sut huy ng c mi tng quan cng chiu v bin ng li suhuy ng cao hn bin ng CPIMi tng quan cng chiu gia bin ng li sut tin gi v CPI l dng, th hin qua phn tch eview

Hm s li sut tin gi c dng: IR = f (CPI) (cc d liu c tnh theo nm)Dng eview chay gia IR v CPI vi tr ca CPI l 02 thng ta c kt qu m hnh hi quy sau:

M hnh hi quy l: IR = -46.12831858 + 5.086517902*CPI(2), c th:


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Mc gii thch ca m hnh R-squared l 64,19%, ngha l bin CPI (lm pht) vi tr 02 thng giithch c 64,19% bin i ca IR (li sut gi tit kim), gi tr Prob(F-statistic) sp x 0, cho thy phhp ca m hnh

2.2 Tc ng ca li sut ln hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip

Vi nghin cu thc nghim 40 cng ty nim yt trn c 02 sn HOSE v HNX thuc nhiu lnh vc khnhau, mc li vay15 m mt doanh nghip phi tr trong Doanh thu thun16 (= doanh thu t bn hng cung cp dch v gi vn) vo khon 21,48% , trong khi mc li nhun dng trn doanh thu t bhng v cung cp dch v vo khong 22.59%. Chnh lch 1,1%. Cho thy hu nh nhiu cng ty lm ch tr li vay, trong khi li vay l mt chi ph khng hon li c hay tr chm c lu, khicho dng tin doanh nghip u t gim ng k. Kt qu doanh nghip hot ng cm chng, khng tsn xut tng ln, m rng quy m v nguy c ph sn l rt cao. Chnh v th nhm xin xut hnghin cu tip theo v mi lin h gia li sut vay v kh nng kit qu ti chnh

Di y l bng m t 02 t trng li vay trong doanh thu thun v li nhun rng sau thu trn doanh th

bn hng v cung cp dch v

Bng so snh t trng chi ph li vay trn doanh thu thun

IR/GOS

36.86%

24.59%

9.39%4.60%

36.86%

49.24%

32.99%

14.05%

3.66%

19.43%19.37%

3.80%

40.60%

1.03%1.01%

14.46%

24.53%

6.55%

127.85%

4.85%7.10%

29.02%

36.02%31.26%

1.47%

18.01%19.92%14.08%

26.66%

2.77%

48.74%

24.87%20.01%

0.09%5.05%

8.82%

50.55%

26.49%

3.46%9.19%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

140.00%

VIC

MS

N

VPL

PVS

AC

C

BT6 CI

I

HD

G

IT

C

QC

G

VR

C

CM

X

SJ1

CM

T

SGT

P

IT

PLC

KS

H

TC

M

DP

M

IR/GOS

15 Li vay c ly t bng cn i k ton16 Nhm dng Doanh thu thun v c nhiu chi ph li vay c hch ton vo gi vn nn nh gi tng i khch quanhn, nhm nh gi li vay trn doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu trn tng doanh thu


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Bng so snh t trng li nhun rng sau thu trn doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v

NET PROFIT/DTT

60.13%

75.69%

35.55%

20.94%

60.13%

3.25%5.58%8.54%

18.34%

2.35%7.80%

35.77%

131.24%

29.59%26.57%29.39%

19.88%

27.22%

38.46%

46.35%

26.41%

12.18%

2.34%7.76%6.60%

9.97%10.84%7.57%11.32%

1.26%0.90%

17.14%

4.19%

30.51%29.68%

6.24%6.21%5.59%

22.53%

1.45%0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

140.00%

VIC

MSN VP

LPV

SAC

CBT

6 CII

HDG

ITC

QCG VR

CCMX

SJ1

CMT

SGT

PIT

PLC

KSH

TCM

DPM

NET PROFIT/DTT

2.3 Vn cn nghin cu tip: Tc ng ca li sut n kh nng kit qu ti chnh hay ph sn cdoanh nghip

Trong qu trnh tm hiu li sut, c ch iu hnh v tc ng ca li sut n hot ng kinh doanh cdoanh nghip. Do thi lng nghin cu khng nhiu v ch tp trung nhiu vo c ch iu hnh li su

ca NHNN Vit Nam (SBV), nn nhm xin dnh phn ny tip tc nghin cu sau nu c iu kin.

Trong phn ny, nhm mun nghin cu liu chng c mi lin h gia li sut cho vay, li sut tin ghay nu 1% thay i li sut th kh nng ph sn ca doanh nghip thay i nh th no?. C mi lin hay tng quan tuyn tnh gia cc bin trn hay khng. Ch s c a ra nghin cu y l ch sM hnh kim nh xut l

IR = f (z) trong IR (interest rate) l li sut cho vay ca NHTM

Ch s Z l g?

Ch s Z l mt cng c o lng Pht Hin Nguy C Ph Sn v Xp Hng nh Mc Tn Dng.

Vic tm ra mt cng c pht hin du hiu bo trc s ph sn lun l mt trong nhng mi quan thang u ca cc nh nghin cu v ti chnh doanh nghip. Ch s ny c pht minh bi Gio SEdward I. Altman, trng kinh doanh Leonard N. Stern, thuc trng i Hc New York, da vo vinghin cu kh cng phu trn s lng nhiu cng ty khc nhau ti M. Mc d ch s Z ny c phminh ti M, nhng hu ht cc nuc, vn c th s dng vi tin cy kh cao.


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Ch s Z bao gm 5 ch s X1, X2, X3, X4, X5:

X1 = T s Vn Lu ng trn Tng Ti Sn (Working Capitals/Total Assets).

X2 = T s Li Nhun Gi Li trn Tng Ti Sn (Retain Earnings/Total Assets)

X3 = T S Li Nhun Trc Li Vay v Thu trn Tng Ti sn (EBIT/Total Assets)

X4 = Gi Tr Th Trng ca Vn Ch S Hu trn Gi tr s sch ca Tng N (Market Value Total Equity / Book values of total Liabilities)

X5= T s Doanh S trn Tng Ti Sn (Sales/Total Assets)

i vi doanh nghip c phn ho, ngnh sn sut:

Nu Z > 2.99 Doanh nghip nm trong vng an ton, cha c nguy c ph sn

Nu 1.8 < Z < 2.99 Doanh nghip nm trong vng cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn Nu Z 2.9: Doanh nghip nm trong vng an ton, cha c nguy c ph sn Nu 1.23 < Z < 2.9: Doanh nghip nm trong vng cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn Nu Z 2.6 Doanh nghip nm trong vng an ton, cha c nguy c ph sn Nu 1.2 < Z < 2.6 Doanh nghip nm trong vng cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn Nu Z


45/55



CHNG IIIKINH NGHIM IU HNH LI SUT CA MT S NC TRN TH GII

c trng c ch iu hnh li sut ca NHTW cc nc pht trin v cc nc ang pht trin:

cc nc pht trin

NHTW dng li sut chit khu tc ng gin tip ti li sut tin gi, li sut tin vay ca cc nghng trung gian.Trn c s cc NHTG ty tnh hnh th trng m p dng li sut tin gi, tin vay vi cc doanh nghip nhng thng l cao hn li sut chit khu. Khi NHTW tng li sut chit khu, i c ngha l NHTW mun hn ch s tng thm tin ra lu thng. i vi li sut c bn th ch c tdng trong iu kin nn kinh t c bin ng va phi v coi nh kh n.

cc nc ang pht trin:

Qua nghin cu thc t ca ngn hng th gii cho thy rng vic s dng li sut trn lm cn tr

tng trng v tit kim ti chnh v gim thiu hiu nng ca u t. Nhiu nc ang pht trin thrng li sut chu s qun l ca Nh nc s khng c tc ng tch cc i vi nn kinh t ni chung hot ng ca cc doanh nghip ni ring. Do , dn dn cc nc ny c khuynh hng li sut bing ph hp vi khuynh hng li sut ca th trng.

C ch iu hnh li sut ca mt s nc pht trin:

Cc D Tr Lin Bang M (FED)

Hin nay FED iu hnh li sut thng qua hai cng c quan trng l li sut chit khu (Discount ratv li sut qu d tr lin bang (Federal funds rate-FFR).FFR c y ban th trng m (FOMC) cng b

sau cc phin hp nh k (6 tun) v n khng mang bn cht n nh c th m thc cht ch l li sumc tiu FED giao dch trn th trng m nhm t c mc tiu cng b.

*Li sut chit khu : y l li sut FED p dng khi cho cc NH TM vay vi t cch l ngi cvay cui cng trn c s cm c cc giy t c gi .Cc NHTM vay chit khu b sung hoc ti to knng thanh ton cho hot ng ca mnh .Li sut chit khu c xy dng theo iu hnh chnh stin t ca FED : FED tng li sut chit khu khi mun hn ch tn dng v ngc li h li sut chit khkhi mun m rng th trng tn dng .Ngoi ra hnh thc cho vay chit khu ca FED cn ging nh ms m bo i vi th trng v s an ton ca h thng ti chnh bi v FED l ngi cho vay cui cv sn sang cho vay trng hp ngn hng gp kh khn v kh nng thanh ton .Tuy nhin li sut ch

khu t c nh hng n cung cu trn th trng vn v 2 l do-Ch c cc Ngn hng qu yu km khng c cc ngun vay khc mi vay FED qua chit khu ..

vy , bo m danh ting ca mnh , cc NHTM M ch vay chit khu trong trng hp qu kh khn.

-Lng vn m cc NHTM vay qua hnh thc chit khu rt hn ch do chng t c gi do cc Nnm gi khng nhiu .


46/55



*Li sut lin ngn hng nh hng : Thng thng khi mt ngn hng thiu kh nng thanh tohoc khng mc d tr quy nh trn ti khon m ti FED th c th vay nng theo hnh thc tn dnqua m t ngun tin gi ca cc NH khc m ti FED c s d vt mc quy dnh .Trn thc t , quan tn dng ny din ra thng xuyn v c khi lng tng i ln .V vy li sut tn dng trn th trny c nh hng ln ti chi ph vn ca cc NHTM .Bng cc quy nh mc li sut chun trn th trny , FED c th tc ng n chi ph vn ca cc NHTM , t c th p dng n li sut cho vay huy ng vn ca NHTM p dng cho khch hng .Cng nh li sut chit khu , li sut lin ngn hnh c trn c s mc tiu iu hnh chnh sch tin t ca FED nhng n phn nh quan h cung ctrn th trng vn st hn v c cc nh u t quan tm hn .

Cn c vo 2 loi li sut do FED cng b trn y , cc NHTM s xc nh li sut cho vay cmnh i vi khch hng trn c s tnh ton cc chi ph qun l v ri ro .Mc li sut cho vay ti thiu th b p chi ph v vn v qun l ca cc NHTM ln gi l li sut ch cht ( Prima rate).Trn ttrng lin ngn hng M c nim yt li sut cho vay bnh quan ca hn 30 Ngn hng ln nht ca M

p dng cho khch hng l cng ty.Do tnh c chi ph v ri ro nn cc mc li sut ch cht c s chlch ln so vi li sut chit khu v li sut lin ngn hng nh hng , mc chnh lch ny c th t 3%

Cc trung gian ti chnh nhn tin gi c th vay ln nhau b p cc khon thiu ht, tuy nhin ckhon vay ln nhau gia cc trung gian ti chnh (li sut lin ngn hng) thng cao hn FFR v vn rro. Khi FED cho cc trung gian ti chnh vay tin b p thiu ht d tr bt buc, s tin tuy hch ton bo c vo ti khon ca cc trung gian ti chnh ti FED nhng cc trung gian ti chnh khng c php rt ngay c khi ph sn, do FED ko c nguy c b mt s tin cho vay di dng ny.

Khc vi FED, khi mt trung gian ti chnh cho mt i tc vay lin ngn hng, h phi ct tin t t

khon tin gi ca mnh, chuyn vo ti khon tin gi ca i tc ti FED, t lc bn cho vay khcn quyn s dng vi s tin cho vay na; nguy c khng thu hi c s tin cho vay xut hin, do sut phi cao hn. C th thy c li sut FFR l li sut thp nht m cc trung gian ti chnh nhn tigi c th vay c, v vy c th xem y l li sut c bn, li sut chun.

Bn cnh nhu cu m bo d tr bt buc, li sut chit khu ca FED chnh l li sut cho cc trugian ti chnh vay p ng nhu cu m bo thanh khon, an to n chi tr ca cc trung gian ti chnh. Vnguyn tc, thng thng li sut lin ngn hng phi thp hn li sut chit khu, v nu khng cc trugian ti chnh s khng vay trn th trng lin ngn hng m s vay ca FED c li sut chit khthp hn. Li sut chit khu thng cao hn li sut FFR v c ba mc li sut p dng cho ba loi cho v

khc nhau l: tn dng chnh (Primary credit), tn dng m rng (Secondary credit) v tn dng thi (Seasonal credit).

Nh vy FED bo v li sut chit khu n nh thng qua chng trnh cho vay chit khu v bv FFR cng b thng qua nghip v th trng m. cch iu hnh ny cua FED khin cho li sut lingn hng lun c xu hng bin ng gia FFR (c vai tr nh li sut sn tr gian on khng hong v


47/55



qua) v li sut chit khu (c vai tr nh li sut trn) m khng cn t ra cc gii hn nh s dng cbin php hnh chnh.

Ngn hng Trung ng Anh (BOE)

Li sut chnh thc l mc li sut m BOE tr cho cc khon tin d tr m cc NHTM gi ti BO

Mc d tr l t nguyn v cc thnh vin xc nh mc cn bng theo mc ti u ring ca mnh nhkhng c thp hn mc trung bnh bt buc (tnh theo thng) trong k duy tr. Cc NHTM c php vc bo m hoc gi tin BOE vi mc li sut nm trong bin +-1% so vi mc li sut chnh thcho tt c cc ngy trong thng (tr ngy cui cng trong k duy tr th bin thu hp cn +-0,25%).

BOE s dng nghip v th trng m duy tr li sut qua m, li sut cc k hn khc dithng lun nm trong bin . Li sut cc khon vay c k hn 3-12 thng c xc nh bi cc thnh viv khng ph thuc vo bin so vi li sut chnh thc.

Nh vy, v bn cht li sut chnh thc m BOE cng b l li sut mc tiu ch khng phi l

sut mang tnh n nh c th v BOE s bo v li sut chnh thc cng b thng qua nghip v th trnm.

Ngn hng Trung ng Chu u (ECB)

Hi ng thng c ca ECB n nh ba mc li sut ch cht ca ng tin chung Euro bao gm:

- Li sut cho hot ng ti cp vn (Main Refinancing Operations-MRO): l mc li sut p dcho cc khon vay gip m bo thanh khon cho cc ngn hng.c cng b hng tun v c hilc trong vng 2 tun

- Li sut ti cp vn di hn ( Long term refinancing rate ) c cng b hng thng v c hiu l

trong vng 3 thng .- Li sut cho cc phng tin tin gi thng xuyn ( deposit rate ), p dng cho cc khon tin g

qua m ca cc ngn hng vi Eurosystem (c quan qun l ngoi t khu vc ng tin chunEuro). Li sut ny c coi l li sut sn trn th trng lin ngn hng

- Li sut cho cc phng tin vay gii hn ( Margina lending rate )p dng cho cc khon vay qm t Eurosystem. Li sut ny c coi l li sut trn trn th trng LNH

ECB s bo v MRO bng nghip v th trng m thng qua u thu khi lng hoc u thu l i suSong song NHTW ca cc quc gia thnh vin c nhim v bo v hai li sut ch cht cn li th

qua hot ng cho vay v nhn tin gi cho li sut cc phng tin tin gi thng xuyn ng vai tli sut sn, cn li sut cho vay gii hn ng vai tr li sut trn, li sut cho vay qua m s dao nquanh bin ny. R rng cng nh li sut chnh thc ca BOE hay FFR ca FED, cc li sut ch chm ECB cng b u mang tnh cht li sut mc tiu, v ECB s bo v li sut mc tiu thng qua ccng c chnh sch tin t ca mnh li sut th trng hng v mc li sut mc tiu.


48/55



ECB can thip trn th trng m nhm mc ch nh hng li sut th trng , iu tit khi lng titrong lu thng , cung cp tn hiu ca ECB v nh hng chnh sch tin t .Cc mc li sut do ECcng b trn th trng m c vai tr quan trong trong vic nh hng mt bng li sut ti cc nthnh vin v c ECB t mc tiu v iu hnh hng ngy .

Ngn hng Trung ng c (RBA)Do iu kin k thut v ti chnh pht trin , Ngn hng d tr ( NH TW ) khng cn s dng c

c l d tr bt buc v ti chit khu m ch s dng mt cng c duy nht thc hin chnh sch tit l nghip v th trng m .Ngn hng D tr t chc mt h thng thanh ton b tr , trong cc nghng TM khc phi m ti khon ti Ngn hng d tr .Nu trong qu trnh thanh ton , ngn hng nthiu tin trn ti khon ny buc phi vay t cc Ngn hng khc duy tr kh ngng thanh ton .Trn s vay mn ny hnh thnh mt th trng vn ngn hn v li sut p dng y dao ng xung quamc li sut m hay cn gi l cash rate do ngn hng d tr quy nh .

Hi ng RBA s n nh li sut tin mt (cash rate) l mc li sut mang tnh mc tiu nhm tc

n li sut cho vay qua m ca cc trung gian ti chnh. Thng qua nghip v th trng m, RBA tng n li sut cho vay qua m cng tim cn vi li sut mc tiu cng tt. Thc t cho thy, RBA kh thnh cng thng qua nghip v th trng m kim sot li sut qua m lun c iu chnh gst vi mc li sut mc tiu m RBA mong mun.

Ngn hng Trung ng Nht Bn (BOJ)

Khng khc nhiu so vi cch thc iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng Trung ng cc nc pht tritrc y BOJ s dng cng c li sut c tn gi li sut chit khu chnh thc (Official Discount Ratbao gm li sut chit khu thng phiu v li sut cho vay c m bo bng tri phiu chnh ph (thn

thp hn 0.25% li sut cho vay c m bo bng ti sn khc).K t ngy 11/8/2006 cc li sut cho vay khc nhau c gp li bng nhau, c gi l li sut cho v

c bn v li sut chit khu c bn (Basic discount rate and basic loan rate). Vic thay i tn khng lm thay i bn cht ca loi li sut ny bi v n vn l li sut m BOJ chit khu cc giy t c gi ccc NHTM, cc NHTM s vay chit khu ca BOJ khi khng tm c ngun vay no trn th trng lingn hng c chi ph thp hn chi ph vay t BOJ. Do li sut m BOJ cng b tr thnh gii hn trca li sut cho vay qua m cho d BOJ khng a ra ro cn hnh chnh no cho hot ng cho vay qm.

Tm li , mi nc u c tn ring cho cc li sut m mnh cng b, nhng v bn cht iu hnh t

khng c nhiu khc bit ln gia cc nc v hu ht c nhng c trng sau:

- Li sut cng b l li sut mc tiu, thng ip mang tnh nh hng th trng thakho ng thi th hin ch ca NHTW.

- Sau khi cng b NHTW thng s dng cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t, thng l cc th trng m iu chnh li su

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