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Final version of comparative preliminary findings of the project on presidential coalitions in "new democracies".
Citation preview
1
January 2015
The Coalitional Presidentialism ProjectResearch Report, January 2015:
How MPs Understand Coalitional Politics in Presidential Systems
www.area-studies.ox.ac.uk/presidentialism www.politics.ox.ac.uk
Paul Chaisty, Nic Cheeseman, Timothy Power (University of Oxford)
1
This research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, Grant Reference: RES-062-23-2892.
1 Data included in this report were collected with the assistance of a large group of researchers. In particular, the authors wish to thank the project manager and research fellow, Svitlana Chernykh, and research consultants in Armenia (Alexander Markarov, Apig Gasparyan, Hamo Danielyan, Narek S. Galstyan), Benin (Azizou Chabi Imorou, Michaela Collord), Brazil (Wladimir Gramacho), Chile (Germán Bidegain Ponte), Ecuador (Santiago Basabe-Serrano), Kenya (Dominic Burbidge, Daniel Paget), Malawi (Emmanuel Desiderio Liwimbi), Russia (Andrei Kulikov) and Ukraine (Olexiy Haran, Petro Burkovskyy).
Executive summary
Motivating Research Questions
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Key Findings
���The ability of presidents to form coalitions has meant
WKDW�WKH�DQWLFLSDWHG�³GLI¿FXOW�FRPELQDWLRQ´�RI�PXOWLSDUW\�politics and presidential systems has not proved detrimental
to political stability.
���Coalitional presidentialism enables governments to
VHFXUH�WKH�SDVVDJH�RI�WKHLU�OHJLVODWLYH�DJHQGD��EXW�DW�WKH�cost of entering into a set of political bargains that place
constraints (whether large or small) on their activity.
���3UHVLGHQWV�XVH�¿YH�PDLQ�WRROV�WR�EXLOG�DQG�PDLQWDLQ�FRDOLWLRQV��FDELQHW�DXWKRULW\��EXGJHWDU\�SRZHU��SDUWLVDQ�SRZHU��OHJLVODWLYH�SRZHU��DQG�WKH�H[FKDQJH�RI�IDYRXUV�
���03V�DJUHH�WKDW�FDELQHW�DXWKRULW\�LV�WKH�PRVW�HIIHFWLYH�WRRO�SUHVLGHQWV�KDYH�WR�PDLQWDLQ�FRDOLWLRQV��EXW�WKH�YDOXH�SODFHG�RQ�RWKHU�WRROV�YDULHV�VLJQL¿FDQWO\�DFURVV�FDVHV�
���Most legislators agree that coalitional presidentialism has
EHHQ�EHQH¿FLDO�WR�SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�DQG�WKH�UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ�of diverse interests within government.
���+RZHYHU��PRVW�03V�DOVR�EHOLHYH�WKDW�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�KDV�OHG�WR�RSSRUWXQLVWLF�VXSSRUW�RI�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�RI�WKH�GD\��WKDW�LW�KDV�XQGHUPLQHG�WKH�DELOLW\�RI�WKH�OHJLVODWXUH�WR�KROG�WKH�SUHVLGHQW�WR�DFFRXQW��DQG�WKDW�LW�has promoted a clientelistic style of politics.
School of Interdisciplinary Area StudiesSOCIAL SCIENCES DIvISION
Brazilian National Congress, Brasília.
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Definitions
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Cases and Method
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���Legislative data collection from Hansards and other
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CPP Research Report
How MPs Understand Coalitional
Politics in Presidential Systems
Introduction
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SRZHUV�DQG�WKH�H[FKDQJH�RI�IDYRXUV�±�ZH�GHYHORS�WKH�LGHD�RI�WKH�³SUHVLGHQWLDO�WRROER[´��ZKLFK�DOORZV�XV�WR�FRQVLGHU�WKH�UHODWLYH�YDOXH�RI�GLIIHUHQW�WRROV�DQG�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�DGPL[WXUHV�LQ�ZKLFK�WKH\�DUH�GHSOR\HG��:H�DUH�LQWHUHVWHG�LQ�DVNLQJ�ZK\�VRPH�SUHVLGHQWV�XVH�FHUWDLQ�WRROV�LQVWHDG�RI�RWKHUV��DQG�ZKLFK�FRPELQDWLRQV�RI�WRROV�DUH�PRVW�HIIHFWLYH�DW�HQVXULQJ�FRDOLWLRQ�GLVFLSOLQH�
7KLV�UHVHDUFK�UHSRUW�SURYLGHV�DQ�RYHUYLHZ�RI�WKH�SURMHFW�DQG�SUHVHQWV�WKH�¿UVW�VHW�RI�¿QGLQJV�IURP�WKH�VWXG\��IRFXVLQJ�RQ�WKH�DWWLWXGHV�RI�0HPEHUV�RI�3DUOLDPHQW��03V��WRZDUGV�WKH�XVH�RI�WKHVH�WRROV�DQG�WKH�LPSDFW�RI�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP��:H�VHHN�WR�OHDUQ�IURP�WKH�H[SHULHQFH�DQG�RSLQLRQV�RI�WKH�OHJLVODWRUV�ZKR�KDYH�ZRUNHG�XQGHU�coalitional presidentialism over the last thirty years.
%DVHG�RQ�LQWHUYLHZV�ZLWK�����03V�DFURVV�RXU�QLQH�FDVHV�±�$UPHQLD��%HQLQ��%UD]LO��&KLOH��(FXDGRU��.HQ\D��0DODZL��5XVVLD�DQG�8NUDLQH�±�ZH�ORRN�DW�WZR�GLIIHUHQW�TXHVWLRQV��)LUVW��ZKDW�DUH�WKH�VWUDWHJLHV��RU�WRROV��WKDW�SUHVLGHQWV�XVH�WR�PDLQWDLQ�FRDOLWLRQV"�6HFRQG��ZKDW�DUH�WKH�FRQVHTXHQFHV�RI�WKH�XVH�RI�WKHVH�WRROV��RU�SXW�DQRWKHU�ZD\��ZKDW�DUH�WKH�SURV�DQG�FRQV�RI�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP"
:H�¿QG�VRPH�FRPPRQ�WKHPHV�DFURVV�WKH����SUHVLGHQWLDO�WHUPV�WKDW�KDYH�WDNHQ�SODFH�LQ�WKH�SHULRG�XQGHU�VWXG\�LQ�RXU�QLQH�FRXQWULHV��0RVW�REYLRXVO\��WKHUH�LV�D�GHJUHH�RI�FRQVHQVXV�DPRQJ�03V�RQ�WKH�PRVW�HIIHFWLYH�WRROV�RU�SRZHUV�HQMR\HG�E\�SUHVLGHQWV��$�PDMRULW\�RI�OHJLVODWRUV�DJUHH�WKDW�WKH�DELOLW\�RI�SUHVLGHQWV�WR�GLVWULEXWH�FDELQHW�seats to reward loyal coalition partners is the most effective
PHDQV�WR�HQVXUH�GLVFLSOLQH��2YHUDOO��03V�UDQNHG�WKH�president’s own legislative powers as the second most
LPSRUWDQW�WRRO�RI�FRDOLWLRQ�PDQDJHPHQW��IROORZHG�FORVHO\�E\�EXGJHWDU\�DXWKRULW\��7KH�SUHVLGHQW¶V�FRQWURO�RYHU�his own party and ability to make informal deals with
LQGLYLGXDO�OHJLVODWRUV�FDPH�MRLQW�ODVW��+RZHYHU��ZLWK�WKH�H[FHSWLRQ�RI�EURDG�DJUHHPHQW�RI�WKH�VLJQL¿FDQFH�RI�FDELQHW�DSSRLQWPHQWV��WKHUH�LV�UHPDUNDEOH�YDULDWLRQ�DFURVV�RXU�FRXQWULHV��
These variations demonstrate the great variety of strategies
HPSOR\HG�E\�SUHVLGHQWV�XQGHU�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP��DQG�WKH�H[WHQW�WKDW�WKHVH�YDU\�RYHU�WLPH�DQG�VSDFH��7KH\�DOVR�UHYHDO�LPSRUWDQW�GLIIHUHQFHV�EHWZHHQ�RXU�FDVHV��DQG�WKH�YDOXH�RI�FRQVLGHULQJ�WKH�IXOO�UDQJH�RI�WRROV�WKDW�SUHVLGHQWV�PD\�XVH�WR�NHHS�WKHLU�DOOLDQFHV�WRJHWKHU��UDWKHU�WKDQ�IRFXVLQJ�RQ�RQH�VSHFL¿F�WRRO��DV�KDV�EHHQ�WKH�FDVH�LQ�PXFK�RI�WKH�OLWHUDWXUH�WR�GDWH��)RU�H[DPSOH��LQ�%HQLQ��ZKHUH�patronage is central to legislative politics and political
SDUWLHV�DUH�ZHDN������RI�03V�WKRXJKW�WKDW�WKH�EXGJHWDU\�DXWKRULW\�ZDV�WKH�PRVW�LPSRUWDQW�WRRO�DYDLODEOH�WR�WKH�SUHVLGHQW��7KLV�GURSV�WR�MXVW����LQ�$UPHQLD��ZKHUH�03V�perceive the legislative powers of the president to be of
3
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:H�DOVR�¿QG�D�GHJUHH�RI�DJUHHPHQW�RYHU�WKH�EHQH¿WV�DQG�negative implications of coalitional presidentialism. Most
legislators agree that coalitional presidentialism has been
EHQH¿FLDO�WR�SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�DQG�WKH�UHSUHVHQWDWLRQ�RI�GLYHUVH�LQWHUHVWV���+RZHYHU��WKH\�DOVR�IHHO�WKDW�LW�KDV�OHG�WR�RSSRUWXQLVWLF�VXSSRUW�IRU�WKH�JRYHUQPHQW�RI�WKH�GD\��WKHUHE\�XQGHUPLQLQJ�WKH�DELOLW\�RI�WKH�OHJLVODWXUH�WR�KROG�WKH�SUHVLGHQW�WR�DFFRXQW�DQG�SURPRWLQJ�D�VW\OH�RI�SROLWLFV�EDVHG�RQ�WKH�H[FKDQJH�RI�IDYRXUV��,Q�RWKHU�ZRUGV��03V�LQ�RXU�VDPSOH�DUH�ZHOO�DZDUH�WKDW�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�LQYROYHV�D�WUDGHRII��2Q�WKH�RQH�KDQG��DOOLDQFH�IRUPDWLRQ�eases the process of governing and allows presidents to
UHVSRQG�WR�SUHVVLQJ�SROLF\�LVVXHV��2Q�WKH�RWKHU��LW�WKUHDWHQV�WR�XQGHUPLQH�OHJLVODWLYH�VFUXWLQ\�DQG�DFFRXQWDELOLW\�
7KH�LQIRUPDWLRQ�SURYLGHG�E\�WKH�OHJLVODWRUV�LQ�RXU�VDPSOH�SURYLGHV�DQ�LPSRUWDQW�QHZ�VHW�RI�SHUVSHFWLYHV�IURP�DURXQG�WKH�ZRUOG��7KLV�LV�LPSRUWDQW�EHFDXVH�VR�IDU�WKH�DFDGHPLF�GHEDWH�RQ�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�KDV�WHQGHG�WR�IRFXV�RQ�D�VPDOO�QXPEHU�RI�/DWLQ�$PHULFDQ�FDVHV��+RZHYHU��LW�is important to remember that legislators are not always
LPSDUWLDO�JXLGHV�WR�WKH�SROLWLFDO�V\VWHPV�LQ�ZKLFK�WKH\�RSHUDWH��DQG�ZRXOG�QRW�QHFHVVDULO\�WDNH�WKHLU�RZQ�PHGLFLQH�LQ�SRZHU��,Q�%UD]LO��IRU�H[DPSOH��OHJLVODWRUV�VWURQJO\�believe that a presidential coalition that dominates the
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This report begins by providing a short overview of
the case selection research methodology employed by
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Researching coalitional presidentialism
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,Q�DGGLWLRQ�WR�D�GHPRFUDF\�WKUHVKROG��ZH�FRQVLGHUHG�RQO\�those regimes in which presidents act as the de facto
IRUPDWHXUV�RI�OHJLVODWLYH�FRDOLWLRQV���,Q�RWKHU�ZRUGV��ZH�select political systems where only the president takes
the lead in the formation and maintenance of coalitions.
This means that we do consider cases that are sometimes
FDWHJRUL]HG�E\�RWKHU�VFKRODUV�DV�VHPL�SUHVLGHQWLDO�ZKHQ�D�FDUHIXO�UHDGLQJ�RI�WKH�SUDFWLFH�RI�H[HFXWLYH�SROLWLFV�VXJJHVWV�WKDW�WKH\�DUH�HIIHFWLYHO\�³SUHVLGHQWLDO´�ZKHQ�LW�FRPHV�WR�FRDOLWLRQ�IRUPDWLRQ��&RQYHUVHO\��ZH�GR�QRW�LQFOXGH�WKRVH�VHPL�SUHVLGHQWLDO�V\VWHPV�ZKHUH�SULPH�PLQLVWHUV�DFW�DV�WKH�IRUPDWHXU��DV�ZDV�WKH�FDVH�LQ�8NUDLQH�EHWZHHQ������DQG�������
2QFH�ZH�KDG�HVWDEOLVKHG�ZKLFK�FRXQWULHV�LQ�RXU�WKUHH�UHJLRQV�PHW�WKHVH�WZR�EDVHOLQH�FRQGLWLRQV��RXU�QH[W�VWHS�ZDV�WR�HQVXUH�YDULDWLRQ�RQ�RQH�RI�WKH�PDLQ�YDULDEOHV�WKDW�ZH�H[SHFW�WR�LQÀXHQFH�FRDOLWLRQDO�JRYHUQDQFH��WKH�GLI¿FXOW\�that presidents face when seeking to form a legislative
PDMRULW\��$�UHDVRQDEOH�SUR[\�IRU�WKLV�LV�WKH�,QGH[�RI�&RDOLWLRQDO�1HFHVVLW\��,&1���ZKLFK�WDNHV�LQWR�FRQVLGHUDWLRQ�WZR�RI�WKH�ELJJHVW�VWUXFWXUDO�FRQVWUDLQWV�RQ�WKH�SUHVLGHQW�ZLWKLQ�WKH�OHJLVODWXUH������WKH�HIIHFWLYH�QXPEHU�RI�SDUWLHV��DQG�����WKH�VKDUH�RI�ORZHU�KRXVH�VHDWV�QRW�KHOG�E\�WKH�nominal party of the president.3�,Q�RUGHU�WR�VHFXUH�YDULDWLRQ�LQ�WHUPV�RI�WKH�PDJQLWXGH�RI�WKH�FKDOOHQJH�IDFLQJ�WKH�H[HFXWLYH��ZH�SXUSRVHO\�VHOHFWHG�FRXQWULHV�WKDW�DUH�ORFDWHG�DW�WKH�WRS��PLGGOH��DQG�ERWWRP�RI�WKH�,QGH[��
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2 See http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm and www.freedomhouse.org.
3 The ICN is calculated by multiplying the Laakso-Taagepera effective number of (parliamentary) parties by the complement of the percentage of seats held by the president’s own party, then dividing by 10 for ease of interpretation.
4 Strictly speaking coalitional necessity is a property of presidential terms, not countries, yet the values on this variable are indicative of notable cross-country differences.
4
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LPSDFW�RI�GLIIHUHQW�SUHVLGHQWV��DQG�KHQFH�RI�OHDGHUVKLS��RQ�coalition management. Case selection was also shaped by
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5 This table presents a reasonably typical presidential term from each of our nine countries for illustrative purposes. In each country we look at all relevant instances of coalitional presidentialism, as our unit of analysis is the presidential term, not the country.
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Theorising coalitional presidentialism
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6 We are still collecting the final Kenyan interviews.
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6
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Many theoretical and empirical advances in recent years
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Following the research that has taken place over the last ten
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landscapes of legislative fragmentation.
7 On Brazil, see for example Figueiredo and Limongi 1999, 2000. Important doctoral dissertations in this vein were completed by Deheza 1997; Amorim Neto 1998; Altman 2001; Zelaznik 2001; Mejía-Acosta 2004; Martínez-Gallardo 2005; Martorelli Hernández 2007; and Zucco Jr. 2007.
8 The coining of the phrase is usually attributed to a Brazilian scholar, Sérgio Abranches (1988), who introduced the term presidencialismo de coalizão. The term quickly gained traction in Brazil, where it is both a descriptor of political practice (used by journalists and politicians) and an analytical paradigm for the study of democratic governability (used by political scientists). For a review see Power (2010).
Introducing the “toolbox”
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dynamic ways: tracking one tool therefore provides only
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Legislative powers
Legislative tools cover the powers that presidents command
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Partisan powers
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Cabinet allocation
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9 For elaboration of the concept with application to three tools, see Raile, Pereira and Power (2011).
7
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Budgetary Powers
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10 Legislators were asked a number of questions about the practice of coalitional politics in their country. We subsequently hand-coded the answers to these open-ended questions.
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Legislators’ perceptions of coalitional
presidentialism
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SXEOLF�SROLF\��/HJLVODWRUV�LQ�DOO�RXU�FRXQWULHV�EDU�5XVVLD�also agreed that the practice of coalition making had
enhanced the representation of diverse social interests
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7DNHQ�WRJHWKHU��WKH�WHQGHQF\�IRU�WKH�OHJLVODWXUH�WR�WUDQVIHU�SROLF\�PDNLQJ�DXWKRULW\�WR�WKH�SUHVLGHQW��DQG�WR�HQFRXUDJH�WKH�H[FKDQJH�RI�IDYRXUV��UDLVHV�VHULRXV�TXHVWLRQV�DERXW�WKH�LPSOLFDWLRQV�RI�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�IRU�ORQJ�WHUP�GHPRFUDWLF�FRQVROLGDWLRQ��+HUH��RXU�LQWHUYLHZHHV�DUH�GLYLGHG��03V�LQ�%UD]LO��8NUDLQH�DQG�5XVVLD�DUH�VWURQJO\�opposed to the idea that coalitional presidentialism has
HQKDQFHG�WKH�TXDOLW\�RI�GHPRFUDF\��+RZHYHU��OHJLVODWRUV�LQ�&KLOH�DQG�(FXDGRU�DUH�IDU�PRUH�SRVLWLYH��DJUHHLQJ�ZLWK�
WKH�VWDWHPHQW�LQ�KLJK�QXPEHUV��$�IXUWKHU�VHW�RI�03V�LQ�$UPHQLD��%HQLQ��DQG�0DODZL��DUH�URXJKO\�HYHQO\�GLYLGHG�between seeing the practice of presidential coalition
formation as a driver and retardant of democracy. To some
H[WHQW�WKHVH�¿QGLQJV�DSSHDU�WR�WUDFN�UHFHQW�H[SHULHQFHV�ZLWK�GHPRFUDF\��VXJJHVWLQJ�WKDW�03V�YLHZV�DUH�SULPDULO\�VKDSHG�E\�EURDGHU�SROLWLFDO�WUHQGV�±�ZKHWKHU�RU�QRW�WKHVH�are directly connected to coalitional politics itself.
+RZHYHU��LW�LV�LPSRUWDQW�WR�QRWH�WKDW�HYHQ�LQ�FRXQWULHV�ZKHUH�03V�UHFRJQL]H�WKH�VKRUWFRPLQJV�RI�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP��OHJLVODWRUV�RIWHQ�DSSHDU�WR�VHH�LW�DV�D�QHFHVVDU\�HYLO��:H�DVNHG�03V�WR�FKRRVH�EHWZHHQ�WKH�statement that ‘a presidential coalition that dominates
SDUOLDPHQW�LV�µEHQH¿FLDO�«�EHFDXVH�LW�JHQHUDWHV�SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\¶�RU�WKDW�LW�LV�µKDUPIXO�«�EHFDXVH�LW�ZHDNHQV�GHPRFUDWLF�DFFRXQWDELOLW\¶��'HVSLWH�WKHLU�PLVJLYLQJV��D�PDMRULW\�RI�03V�LQ�VL[�RI�RXU���FRXQWULHV�FDPH�WR�WKH�FRQFOXVLRQ�WKDW�WKH�HIIHFW�RI�FRDOLWLRQDO�SROLWLFV�RQ�SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�RXWZHLJKHG�LWV�HIIHFWV�RQ�GHPRFUDWLF�TXDOLW\��WDEOH�����2I�FRXUVH��WKHUH�DUH�LPSRUWDQW�YDULDWLRQV�KHUH�DOVR��0RUH�WKDQ�����RI�03V�LQ�%UD]LO�DQG�0DODZL�EHOLHYH�that the overall impact of coalitional presidentialism is
KDUPIXO��7KLV�UHÀHFWV�WKH�GLIIHUHQW�SULRULWLHV�RI�OHJLVODWRUV�LQ�WKHVH�FRXQWULHV��ZKR�DSSHDU�WR�EH�PRUH�FRQFHUQHG�ZLWK�DFFRXQWDELOLW\�WKDQ�SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�WKURXJKRXW�RXU�VXUYH\��7KHUH�DUH�DOVR�LPSRUWDQW�YDULDWLRQV�ZLWKLQ�FRXQWULHV��DV�RQH�ZRXOG�H[SHFW��03V�ZKR�KDYH�HQMR\HG�WKH�EHQH¿WV�RI�EHLQJ�in government tend to be more positive than those who
have spent their careers in opposition.
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Chile �� �� � ��%HQLQ �� 30 0 ��(FXDGRU �� �� � ��8NUDLQH �� 35 10 ��5XVVLD 53 �� � ��Armenia 53 33 13 ��Malawi �� �� 0 ��%UD]LO �� �� � 51
11
IRUPV�RI�JRYHUQPHQW�KDYH�VWUHQJWKV�DQG�ZHDNQHVVHV��DQG�¿QG�WKH�FRVWV�RI�FRDOLWLRQ�JRYHUQPHQW�DFFHSWDEOH�ZKHQ�FRPSDUHG�WR�WKHLU�H[SHULHQFH�RI�RQH�SDUW\��RU�PLQRULW\��UXOH��,Q�WKLV�ZD\��WKH�DWWLWXGHV�RI�PDQ\�RI�RXU�03V�VHHP�WR�HFKR�:LQVWRQ�&KXUFKLOO¶V�IDPRXV�OLQH�DERXW�democracy: coalitional presidentialism is the worst form
RI�JRYHUQPHQW��H[FHSW�IRU�DOO�RI�WKH�RWKHU�IRUPV�WKDW�KDYH�EHHQ�WULHG��7KLV�FRQ¿UPV�WZR�WKLQJV�WKDW�H[LVWLQJ�VWXGLHV�RI�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�KDYH�DOUHDG\�VXJJHVWHG��)LUVW��WKDW�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�LV�YDOXDEOH�SUHFLVHO\�EHFDXVH�LW�HQDEOHV�WKH�H[HFXWLYH�WR�RYHUFRPH�WKH�³GLI¿FXOW�FRPELQDWLRQ´�RI�PXOWLSDUW\�SROLWLFV�DQG�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP��DQG�DYRLG�GHDGORFN�DQG�GHPRFUDWLF�EUHDNGRZQ��6HFRQG��that coalitional presidentialism is here to stay.
Conclusions and future research
Coalitional presidentialism is an important political
SKHQRPHQRQ�DURXQG�WKH�ZRUOG���)RU�SUHVLGHQWV�ZKRVH�SDUWLHV�ODFN�PDMRULW\�VXSSRUW�LQ�OHJLVODWLYH�DVVHPEOLHV��coalitions have become the preferred way of dealing with
PLQRULW\�VXSSRUW�LQ�OHJLVODWLYH�DVVHPEOLHV��7KLV�WHQGHQF\�RI�presidents to act like prime ministers has enabled them to
RYHUFRPH�WKH�³GLI¿FXOW�FRPELQDWLRQ´�RI�PXOWLSDUW\�SROLWLFV�DQG�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP��$V�D�UHVXOW��WKH�NLQG�RI�OHJLVODWLYH�GHDGORFN�WKDW�/LQ]�IHDUHG�KDV�QRW�RFFXUUHG��+RZHYHU��coalitional presidentialism brings with it an important set
RI�QHJDWLYH�H[WHUQDOLWLHV��(YHQ�OHJLVODWRUV�WKDW�DUH�RYHUDOO�V\PSDWKHWLF�WR�FRDOLWLRQDO�SROLWLFV�LGHQWLI\�D�QXPEHU�RI�ZD\V�LQ�ZKLFK�LW�PD\�XQGHUPLQH�GHPRFUDF\��7KH�W\SLFDO�DVVHVVPHQW�RI�WKH�03V�LQ�RXU�VDPSOH�PLJKW�EH�VXPPDUL]HG�as follows: coalitional presidentialism boosts political
VWDELOLW\��EXW�DW�WKH�FRVW�RI�ZHDNHU�KRUL]RQWDO�DFFRXQWDELOLW\�
,W�LV�FOHDU�IURP�WKH�UHVSRQVHV�WR�RXU�VXUYH\�RI�OHJLVODWRUV�WKDW�03V�LQ�GLIIHUHQW�FRXQWULHV�KDYH�RSHUDWHG�XQGHU�SUHVLGHQWV�ZKR�KDYH�XVHG�YHU\�GLIIHUHQW�FRPELQDWLRQV�RI�WRROV�WR�EXLOG�DQG�PDLQWDLQ�WKHLU�FRDOLWLRQV��$OWKRXJK�WKHUH�LV�D�FOHDU�FRQVHQVXV�RQ�WKH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�FDELQHW�DXWKRULW\��WKH�VLJQL¿FDQFH�RI�RWKHU�WRROV�YDULHV�FRQVLGHUDEO\�RYHU�ERWK�WLPH�DQG�VSDFH��7KLV�¿QGLQJ��DQG�WKH�IDFW�WKDW�OHJLVODWRUV�DFURVV�RXU�HLJKW�FRXQWULHV�UHFRJQL]H�WKH�VLJQL¿FDQFH�RI�WKH�¿YH�WRROV�GHVFULEHG�LQ�WKLV�SDSHU��GHPRQVWUDWHV�WKH�LPSRUWDQFH�RI�XQGHUVWDQGLQJ�FRDOLWLRQDO�SUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�WKURXJK�WKH�OHQV�RI�WKH�SUHVLGHQWLDO�³WRROER[´��
:H�QRZ�QHHG�IXUWKHU�UHVHDUFK�WR�FODULI\�ZKLFK�WRROV�SUHVLGHQWV�XVH�XQGHU�GLIIHUHQW�FRQGLWLRQV�DQG�ZK\��:H�DOVR�QHHG�WR�NQRZ�PRUH�DERXW�WKH�LPSOLFDWLRQV�RI�WKHVH�FRPELQDWLRQV�RI�WRROV�IRU�SXEOLF�SROLF\��SROLWLFDO�VWDELOLW\�and democracy. Are some combinations of tools more
HIIHFWLYH�WKDQ�RWKHUV"�'R�VRPH�FRPELQDWLRQV�KDYH�ZRUVH�H[WHUQDOLWLHV��DQG�LI�VR��FDQ�WKHVH�EH�PLWLJDWHG"�7KHVH�DUH�WKH�TXHVWLRQV�WKDW�WKH�&RDOLWLRQDO�3UHVLGHQWLDOLVP�3URMHFW�hopes to develop answers to in the coming years.
12
The Coalitional Presidentialism Project
The research of the Coalitional Presidentialism project is ongoing, and can be followed via our website: www.area-studies.ox.ac.uk/presidentialism
Project publications
&KDLVW\��3DXO�DQG�6YLWODQD�&KHUQ\NK��������³&RDOLWLRQDO�3UHVLGHQWLDOLVP�DQG�/HJLVODWLYH�&RQWURO�LQ�3RVW�6RYLHW�8NUDLQH�´��Post-Soviet Affairs��SXEOLVKHG�RQOLQH���-DQ��
&KDLVW\��3DXO��������³3UHVLGHQWLDO�G\QDPLFV�DQG�OHJLVODWLYH�YHORFLW\�LQ�5XVVLD������������´�East European Politics 30
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&KDLVW\��3DXO��1LF�&KHHVHPDQ�DQG�7LPRWK\�3RZHU��������³5HWKLQNLQJ�WKH�µSUHVLGHQWLDOLVP�GHEDWH¶��FRQFHSWXDOL]LQJ�FRDOLWLRQDO�SROLWLFV�LQ�FURVV�UHJLRQDO�SHUVSHFWLYH�´�Democratization����������������Winner of the Comparative Area Studies (CAS) Award for the Best Paper awarded by the German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
Select bibliography
$EUDQFKHV��6pUJLR��������³3UHVLGHQFLDOLVPR�GH�FRDOL]mR��R�GLOHPD�LQVWLWXFLRQDO�EUDVLOHLUR�´�Dados����������$OWPDQ��'DYLG��������³7KH�3ROLWLFV�RI�&RDOLWLRQ�)RUPDWLRQ�DQG�6XUYLYDO�XQGHU�0XOWLSDUW\�3UHVLGHQWLDO�'HPRFUDFLHV�´�3K�'��GLVVHUWDWLRQ��8QLYHUVLW\�RI�1RWUH�'DPH�$PRULP�1HWR��2FWDYLR��������³2I�3UHVLGHQWV��3DUWLHV��DQG�0LQLVWHUV��&DELQHW�)RUPDWLRQ�DQG�/HJLVODWLYH�'HFLVLRQ�0DNLQJ�8QGHU�6HSDUDWLRQ�RI�3RZHUV�´�3K�'��GLVVHUWDWLRQ��8QLYHUVLW\�RI�&DOLIRUQLD��6DQ�'LHJR�%DUNDQ��-��'��������µ&RPPHQW��)XUWKHU�5HDVVHVVPHQW�RI�³&RQYHQWLRQDO�:LVGRP�´�3ROLWLFDO�.QRZOHGJH�DQG�9RWLQJ�%HKDYLRU�LQ�5XUDO�.HQ\D¶��American Political Science Review������������������%DUNDQ��-��'����2NXPX��-��-��������µ/LQNDJH�ZLWKRXW�SDUWLHV��/HJLVODWRUV�DQG�FRQVWLWXHQWV�LQ�.HQ\D¶��,Q�/DZVRQ��.��Political Parties and Linkage: A Comparative Perspective��/RQGRQ��<DOH�8QLYHUVLW\����������&DURWKHUV��7KRPDV��������Confronting the Weakest Link: Aiding Political Parties in New Democracies��:DVKLQJWRQ��&DUQHJLH�&KDLVW\��3DXO��1LF�&KHHVHPDQ��DQG�7LPRWK\�-��3RZHU��������³5HWKLQNLQJ�WKH�µ3UHVLGHQWLDOLVP�'HEDWH¶��&RDOLWLRQDO�3ROLWLFV�LQ�&URVV�5HJLRQDO�3HUVSHFWLYH�´�Democratization ����QR�����������&KHLEXE��-RVp�$QWRQLR��DQG�)HUQDQGR�/LPRQJL��������³)URP�&RQÀLFW�WR�&RRUGLQDWLRQ��3HUVSHFWLYHV�RQ�WKH�6WXG\�RI�([HFXWLYH�/HJLVODWLYH�5HODWLRQV�´�Revista Iberoamericana de Estudos Legislativos��5,(/�����QR�����SS��������&KHLEXE��-RVp�$QWRQLR��$GDP�3U]HZRUVNL��DQG�6HEDVWLDQ�6DLHJK��������³*RYHUQPHQW�&RDOLWLRQV�DQG�/HJLVODWLYH�6XFFHVV�XQGHU�3UHVLGHQWLDOLVP�DQG�3DUOLDPHQWDULVP�´�British Journal of Political Science�������������'HKH]D��*UDFH�,YDQD��������³*RELHUQRV�GH�FRDOLFLyQ�HQ�HO�VLVWHPD�SUHVLGHQFLDO��$PpULFD�GHO�6XU�´�3K�'��GLVVHUWDWLRQ��(XURSHDQ�8QLYHUVLW\�,QVWLWXWH�(OJLH��5REHUW��������³)URP�/LQ]�WR�7VHEHOLV��7KUHH�:DYHV�RI�3UHVLGHQWLDO�3DUOLDPHQWDU\�6WXGLHV"´�Democratization�����QR�������������
)LJXHLUHGR��$UJHOLQD��DQG�)HUQDQGR�/LPRQJL��������Executivo e legislativo na nova ordem constitucional��6mR�3DXOR��(GLWRUD�)*9�)LJXHLUHGR��$UJHOLQD��DQG�)HUQDQGR�/LPRQJL��������³3UHVLGHQWLDO�3RZHU��/HJLVODWLYH�2UJDQL]DWLRQ��DQG�3DUW\�%HKDYLRU�LQ�WKH�%UD]LOLDQ�/HJLVODWXUH�´�Comparative Politics�����QR�����-DQXDU\�����������+HOPNH��*UHWFKHQ�DQG�6WHSHKQ�/HYLWVN\��HGV��������Informal Institutions and Democracy: Lessons from Latin America. %DOWLPRUH��-RKQV�+RSNLQV�8QLYHUVLW\�3UHVV�/DDNVR��0DUNNX��DQG�5HLQ�7DDJHSHUD��������³(IIHFWLYH�QXPEHU�RI�SDUWLHV��D�PHDVXUH�ZLWK�DSSOLFDWLRQ�WR�:HVWHUQ�(XURSH�´�Comparative Political Studies������������/LQ]��-XDQ�-��������³3UHVLGHQWLDO�RU�3DUOLDPHQWDU\�'HPRFUDF\��'RHV�,W�0DNH�D�'LIIHUHQFH"´�,Q�-XDQ�-��/LQ]�DQG�$UWXUR�9DOHQ]XHOD��HGV���The Failure of Presidential Democracy: The Case of Latin America. Baltimore��-RKQV�+RSNLQV�8QLYHUVLW\�3UHVV�0DLQZDULQJ��6FRWW��������³3UHVLGHQWLDOLVP��0XOWLSDUWLVP��DQG�'HPRFUDF\��7KH�'LI¿FXOW�&RPELQDWLRQ�´�Comparative Political Studies ������������0DUWtQH]�*DOODUGR��&HFLOLD��������³3UHVLGHQWV��3RVWV��DQG�3ROLF\��Ministerial Appointments and Political Strategy in Presidential
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