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Coffee Market Outlook
15th Asia International Coffee ConferenceHo Chi Minh City, Vietnam
7 9 D b 2009
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
7-9 December 2009
Néstor Osorio
Executive Director
ICO composite indicator price Monthly: January 2000 to November 2009
130
140
150
70
80
90
100
110
120
US
cent
s pe
r po
und
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
30
40
50
60
2
ICO group indicator pricesDaily: 1 October 2008 to 30 November 2009
210
220
230
240
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
US
cent
s pe
r po
und
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
50
60
70
80
90
Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas
World ProductionCrop years 2000 to 2009
113.4
122.6
115.9
111 2
129.1
118.9
128.1123.0-125.0
120
140
107.9104.7
111.2
60
80
100
mil
lion
bag
s
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
0
20
40
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09* 2009/10*
3
Total production in 2008/09
Africa11% Asia&Oceania
13%Colombia
7%
Vietnam14%
7%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Central America + Mexico
14%South America4%
Brazil37%
Production by type of coffee Crop year 2008/09
Robusta49.539%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Arabica78.661%
4
Production in VietnamCrop years commencing 1990 to 2009
19.3
18.1
17.518
21
6.9 7.0
11.6
14.9
13.1
11.6
15.2
14.213.5
16.5
9
12
15
mil
lion
bag
s
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
1.4 1.3
2.3
3.03.5
3.9
5.7
0
3
6
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Production: 10 leading producers 2008/09 (Volume in 000 bags - % of world production)
Brazil 45 992 36.8
Vietnam 18 500 14.4
Indonesia 9 350 7.5
Colombia 8 664 6.9
Mexico 4 650 3.7
India 4 372 3.5
Ethiopia 4 350 3 5
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Ethiopia 4 350 3.5
Peru 3 872 3.1
Guatemala 3 785 3.0
Uganda 3 200 2.6
5
Total exports to all destinationsCalendar years 2000 to 2009*
86.8 87.885.6
87.584.9
88.1
93.3 93.595.7
90
95
100
105
83.584.9
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
mil
lion
bag
s
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
Value of coffee exportsCalendar years 2000 to 2009*
15.316
18
8.2
5 4 5.6
6.9
9.3
10.8
12.8
13.6
6
8
10
12
14
billi
on U
S do
llars
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
5.4 5.2
0
2
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
6
World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2009
112 8
118.5 119.0122.6
127.1130.0 132.0
120
140
104.7109.0 110.5
112.8
60
80
100
mill
ion
bags
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
0
20
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009*
Estimated consumption in 2008: 10 leading markets by volume
(in million 60-kg bags)
USA 21.7
Brazil 17.9
Germany 9.6
Japan 7.1
Italy 5.9
France 5.1
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Russian Federation 3.7
Spain 3.5
Indonesia 3.3
United Kingdom 3.1
7
Consumption per capita: top 10 leading markets by volume
(in kg (green equivalent) per year)
Finland 12.6
Switzerland 9.1
Norway 9.0
Sweden 8.3
Iceland 8.3
Denmark 7.7
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Germany 7.0
Estonia 6.9
Austria 6.5
Bosnia & Herzegovina 6.2
World consumption in 2008(in million 60-kg bags)
Africa6.95% Asia&Oceania
20.115%15%
Central America + Mexico
4.84%
Europe50.139%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
North America25.820%
South America22.217%
8
World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
A l2000 2008*
Annual growth (%)
Traditional markets 63 377 68 584 0.88
Producing countries 25 604 35 855 3.81
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53
WORLD TOTAL 104 725 130 004 2.43
World coffee consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
A l2000 2008*
Annual growth
Total 63 377 68 584 0.88European Community 38 005 39 867 0.53
Germany 8 770 9 554 0.96Italy 5 149 5 937 1.60France 5 402 5 154 -0.52
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Spain 2 991 3 485 1.71United Kingdom 2 342 3 067 3.04
USA 18 746 21 652 1.61Japan 6 626 7 065 0.72
9
World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
2000 2008*
Annual growth
(%)Total 25 604 35 855 3.81Brazil 13 075 17 526 3.31Indonesia 1 664 3 333 8.03Mexico 1 189 2 200 7.08
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Ethiopia 1 642 1 833 1.23India 938 1 518 5.50Others 7 098 9 444 3.22
World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
Annual growth
(%)
Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53
Russian Federation 1 863 3 716 7.97
Algeria 1 779 2 118 1.96
Ukraine 179 1 733 28.71
K R bli f 1 246 1 665 3 28
2000 2008*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Korea, Republic of 1 246 1 665 3.28
Australia 832 1 145 3.61
China* 859 940 1.01
Others 8 986 14 248 5.26
10
Opening stocks in exporting countriesCrop years 2000/01 to 2008/09
55.154.0
52.7
60
48.3
41.2
37.1
28.3
25.3
17 320
30
40
50
mill
ion
bags
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
17.3
0
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Inventories in importing countries End of June: 2000 to 2009
23
25.9
25
30
15.5
18.8 18.7
21.1 21.1
23.5
19.5
22.2 22.1
10
15
20
5
mill
ion
bags
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
0
5
Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09
11
Outlook 2009/10: Supply 1
Production costs Production costs
– Steady growth in recent years
– Prices of main inputs(fertilizers + petrol) oscillating
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
– Labour costs remain high
Outlook 2009/10: Supply 2
Influence of exchange rates:In co ntries ith e change rates linked to the– In countries with exchange rates linked to the US$, price to producer has kept pace with recovery since 2004
– Vietnam: benefits of exchange rate linked to US$ off-set by high inflation 5% devaluation in Nov/2009
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
in Nov/2009
– In countries with flexible exchange rates (esp. Brazil and Colombia), appreciation of local currency in relation to the US$ reduces benefit of higher coffee prices since 2004
12
Outlook 2009/10: Demand 1Traditional markets
58% of world consumption p
Changes in consumption habits
(downtrading):– From outside the home to at home
– Greater demand for lower-priced brands
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Impact on total volume of consumption likely to be limited
Outlook 2009/10: Demand 2Producing countries
26% of world consumption Stable domestic prices
Impact on total volume of consumption likely to be limited
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
13
Outlook 2009/10: Demand 3Emerging markets
18% of world consumptionp
Vulnerabilities:– Coffee continues to be considered a luxury item
– Devaluation of local currencies vs. US$ increases price to consumer
M i k ( l t
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
– Macro-economic weaknesses (unemployment, lack of credit) can reduce demand
Impact on total volume of consumption still uncertain
Outlook 2009/10: Prices
Short term:– Low production in Colombia and Central AmericaLow production in Colombia and Central America
increased differentials for Washed Arabicas
– Market strongly influenced by exogenous factors (stock markets, exchange rates)
Medium term:– Market influenced by expectations regarding Brazilian
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
production for 2010/11
14
World Coffee ConferenceGuatemala, 26-28 February 2010
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
g g{tÇ~ çÉâ
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
www.ico.org